EPTDecember 26 rating list: now tweaked - Page 6
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Scrubwave
Poland1786 Posts
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Milkis
5003 Posts
On December 29 2012 00:56 Grovbolle wrote: Would require an entire rework of the way results are currently added. Maybe it can be done when we "start" fresh with HoTS Sure, but it'd probably be the best step forward when we're talking about actively measuring "skill" | ||
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Grovbolle
Denmark3813 Posts
On December 29 2012 01:00 Milkis wrote: Sure, but it'd probably be the best step forward when we're talking about actively measuring "skill" I'll suggest it to TheBB (Although he'll prolly read this thread pretty soon  ) | ||
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Salient
United States876 Posts
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Grovbolle
Denmark3813 Posts
On December 29 2012 01:05 Salient wrote: The ranking system is only useful if it is predictive. Is Baby really the 6th best player in the world at the moment? Would you confidently predict that he would consistently beat MC, Mvp, and Taeja? If not, your ranking system is not really useful at all. I agree. But you can't just say that: "Before anyone has beaten at least 100 players, we won't acknowledge what he does". Let's see if this won't be even more useful once HoTS hits and the board is wiped clean | ||
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Conti
Germany2516 Posts
On December 29 2012 01:05 Salient wrote: The ranking system is only useful if it is predictive. Is Baby really the 6th best player in the world at the moment? Would you confidently predict that he would consistently beat MC, Mvp, and Taeja? If not, your ranking system is not really useful at all. The funny thing is that the ranking system is extremely good at predicting matches. I let the site predict the playoff matches of the recent GSL Blizzard Cup, and it correctly guessed 4 of the 5 matchups, including a 4-2 win of Life over Parting. Go ahead, you can try it out yourself at http://aligulac.com/predict/match/ Yes, there are oddities in the rating, and there always will be. No rating is perfect, especially not in a game with so many random elements as Starcraft 2. But as far as ranking systems go, this one is pretty damn impressive. | ||
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Grovbolle
Denmark3813 Posts
On December 29 2012 01:15 Conti wrote: The funny thing is that the ranking system is extremely good at predicting matches. I let the site predict the playoff matches of the recent GSL Blizzard Cup, and it correctly guessed 4 of the 5 matchups, including a 4-2 win of Life over Parting. Go ahead, you can try it out yourself at http://aligulac.com/predict/match/ Yes, there are oddities in the rating, and there always will be. No rating is perfect, especially not in a game with so many random elements as Starcraft 2. But as far as ranking systems go, this one is pretty damn impressive. Also did 7/8 at Homestory cup RO16 | ||
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
On December 29 2012 01:05 Salient wrote: The ranking system is only useful if it is predictive. I'm getting tired of this. The whole idea behind the system was to make it predictive. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ozo8z.png?1) Behold. This is a plot of almost 50k historical games. On the horizontal axis you find predicted winrate for the presumed stronger player, using the ratings at the time the game was played. The games were grouped in reasonably small groups, i.e. 50%-53.3% and so on. (Obviously no numbers below 50 since this is the predicted winrate for the stronger player. It also only goes up to about 75 because there are very few games past that.) On the vertical axis is the actual winrate for each group. As can be plainly seen cough, cough, the actual winrate is close to the predicted winrate or, in some cases, higher. Now I'm no statistician, and honestly I don't know how to do a proper prediction test, but it looks fucking damnable good to me. Things this rating is not:
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Salient
United States876 Posts
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
On December 29 2012 04:43 Salient wrote: So you really think Baby (Code A player) is the 6th best player in the world at the moment? Very unlikely. Do I really think that? The (presumably) sentient human being TheBB? Does he think that Baby is the 6th best player in the world? Nowhere did I say that. What I can say is that if I had no information about Baby other than his past results, and that if I were to pit every Starcraft 2 player in the world against a random and fairly uniform assortment of opponents, Baby might possibly (with a probability that I could estimate, but I won't because this is ridiculous) have a winrate that only five others could beat. However, the sentient human being TheBB knows more about Baby than that, and he can possibly make a better judgement. Things I know about Baby that the rating system does not include such interesting information as his team status, nationality, probable training regime, friendships with other progamers, and so on. Do I, the sentient human being TheBB, think that you are underestimating Baby? For sure. It's like you didn't even read my post, let alone the FAQ on the site. Edit: I just realized you are literally behind almost every single complaint on the last two pages. That makes me feel a lot better about things. | ||
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Yorbon
Netherlands4272 Posts
On December 29 2012 04:43 Salient wrote: According to the definition above:So you really think Baby (Code A player) is the 6th best player in the world at the moment? Very unlikely. There are only 5 players to be expected to win against baby at this moment. Baby can win, he can lose. Also, being the best player or not is irrelevant, that's in your head. It's about statistical chances of him winning against an opponent. | ||
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Conti
Germany2516 Posts
On December 29 2012 04:52 TheBB wrote: Edit: I just realized you are literally behind almost every single complaint on the last two pages. That makes me feel a lot better about things. Don't worry, there's always people complaining as loudly as they can without reading a single explanation or answer. They're bound to appear with threads like these, and they definitely shouldn't get you down. You're doing awesome work here, and the community is all the better for it. | ||
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dsousa
United States1363 Posts
WCG should be banned for not banning Combatex. | ||
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Salient
United States876 Posts
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ROOTdrewbie
Canada1392 Posts
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LighT.
Canada4501 Posts
Flash is mechanically better at both the macro and micro aspect than MVP. Dont fool yourselves. | ||
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Salient
United States876 Posts
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dabom88
United States3483 Posts
On December 29 2012 06:10 Salient wrote: Flash was the "deity" of another game. We'll see if it carries over. I hope so. Grubby was the king of War 3, but that didn't carry over at all, unfortunately. Madfrog was pretty good as WC3 as well. And Moon was GOD of WC3. And we saw how that turned out. | ||
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casualman
United States1198 Posts
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NagAfightinG
United Kingdom270 Posts
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