• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 19:47
CEST 01:47
KST 08:47
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Ro4 Preview: Mirror Mirror6[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: Within Reach5[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: In A Tizzy11[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Holy Diver5[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Rough Waters10
Community News
Rollback Netcode in Brood War685.0.17 Patch Notes - October 7, 202621Weekly Cups Results (Sep 28-Oct 4)0SC4ALL: II SC2 Complete Invited Player Lineup10StarCraft II 5.0.17 PTR Patch Notes (Sept 30, 2026)78
StarCraft 2
General
ESL Pro Tour for SC2 discontinued [Old] StarCraft 3 Reportedly in Development 5.0.17 Patch Notes - October 7, 2026 StarCraft II 5.0.17 PTR Patch Notes (Sept 30, 2026) How do you feel about the mass reverts in the 5.0.17 PTR?
Tourneys
RSL 2026 Offline Finals LCQ Sign-Ups $3,500 WardiTV Not-Summer Championship ScienceCraft (October 24-25) - Live Event Stellar Fest TWO the Moon (Dec 16-20) ISSL (IntoTheTV x SOOP SC2 League): Premier
Strategy
[H] ZvP Mid-Late Game: Stalkers Collossi HT
Custom Maps
[M] (2) Sweltering Sands [M] (2) Frigid Storage
External Content
Mutation # 547 Temple Of Terror Mutation # 546 Catch the Train The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 545 And Drops and Rifts
Brood War
General
Rollback Netcode in Brood War BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ BW General Discussion Ziemie's Starcraft 1 Prequel Campaign Mineral Boosting (2 workers/patch)
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL22] Semifinal A [ASL22] Semifinal B [ASL22] Ro8 Day 4
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Cliff Jump Revisited (1 in a 1000 strategy) Replay Review Process - What do you do?
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread General RTS Discussion Thread Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne Total Annihilation Zero
Dota 2
Dota 2 Champions League Season 3 Begins April 25!
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Canadian Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Artificial Intelligence Thread
Fan Clubs
Serral Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Movie Discussion! Diablo Animated Series on Netflix
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
Recent Gifted Posts
Blogs
The Link Between Gaming and …
TrAiDoS
[ASL22] Ro4 Day1 Ticket Giv…
bITt.mAN
38 yo Retired SWE loo…
PurE)Rabbit-SF
Can Bots Beat Pros?? Starcr…
namkraft
[meme] I finally understa…
LUCKY_NOOB
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 13237 users

Code S Groups Released - Page 9

Forum Index > SC2 General
243 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 7 8 9 10 11 13 Next All
zOverdose
Profile Joined October 2012
Korea (South)8 Posts
October 27 2012 14:10 GMT
#161
Group A: Polt & Parting
Group B: Symbol & Happy
Group C: Curious & Maru
Group D: Rain & Gumiho
Group E: Creator & DRG
Group F: MarineKing & Seed
Group G: Leenock & KeeN
Group H: Life & Ryung
Grandmaster Zerg Player l [ Z - Life, Symbol, YellOw, Leenock ] [ P - Creator, JangBi, By. Rain, Genius ] [ T - Flash, Fantasy, Mvp, MKP ]
Rannasha
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Netherlands2398 Posts
October 27 2012 14:11 GMT
#162
On October 27 2012 21:54 TheBB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2012 21:24 Shellshock1122 wrote:
On October 27 2012 19:24 TheBB wrote:
These are the probabilities for each player to advance, based on their current Elo ratings. Note that the ratings could change before the groups are played (as will certainly be the case with DRG and Rain for example).

Group F is certainly the most even group, with the most and least likely players not even 4% away from a pure coinflip. Group D is also very close. Group C, G and H are the most uneven.

The biggest favourites to advance are Life, Hero, Squirtle, Hero, Curious, Taeja and Leenock.

The biggest favourites to drop out are Soulkey, Bogus, Bbyong and Baby. (Note that some Kespa players are still underrated.)

+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +
Group A

      TaeJa: 77.553%
      PartinG: 49.076%
      Polt: 43.950%
      finale: 29.421%

+ Show Spoiler [Group B] +
Group B

      Symbol: 66.833%
      RorO: 60.818%
      Hack: 41.677%
      IMHappy: 30.672%

+ Show Spoiler [Group C] +
Group C

      HerO: 85.972%
      Curious: 79.079%
      Maru: 26.324%
      Neo.G_Soulkey: 8.625%

+ Show Spoiler [Group D] +
Group D

      By.Sun: 61.782%
      GuMiho: 49.263%
      HyuN: 45.195%
      YoDa: 43.760%

+ Show Spoiler [Group E] +
Group E

      Creator: 69.455%
      Mvp: 69.032%
      DongRaeGu: 50.428%
      Bbyong: 11.085%

+ Show Spoiler [Group F] +
Group F

      MarineKing: 53.273%
      sHy: 51.546%
      Sniper: 48.617%
      Seed: 46.565%

+ Show Spoiler [Group G] +
Group G

      Squirtle: 85.393%
      Leenock: 76.368%
      KeeN: 28.836%
      Bogus: 9.403%

+ Show Spoiler [Group H] +
Group H

      Life: 94.610%
      Vampire: 46.012%
      Ryung: 41.083%
      BaBy: 18.295%

I like how you were doing this for the up and down groups and it seems relatively accurate, but I have a question about how you come up with the percentages. Is the program based on assuming they all play each other? I guess I'm just having trouble seeing how it would predict a group that isn't using a round robin format. I could see how it's all working with the up and down matches but do you have it set up so it takes into account who their first opponent is + assuming who the second opponent is, etc? Or is it just in general? Very interesting stuff, though.

For a round robin group I run 100,000 simulations and count the frequency of each outcome. (Opterown's suggestion of 1,000 is really not enough to get accurate numbers in a 6-player group, for instance. Ideally I would like to do even more.)


Why do you use MC to compute the outcome of a round robin group? In case of the U&D system of Bo1 series, a 5-player group only has 10 matches, so 1024 possible outcomes. A 6-player group has 15 matches and ~32K possible outcomes. It seems easier to just iterate over all possible outcomes than it is to do *more* simulations than there are possible outcomes.

Things don't get much worse with Bo3 round-robin groups. A single Bo3 has 4 possible outcomes instead of the 2 possible outcomes of a Bo1. So a 6-player group would have 4^15 = 2^30 ~ 1B possible outcomes. This gets tricky, but it's doable still. But in reality, we only see Bo3 round-robin groups with 4 players per group (in foreign tournaments). In this case you only have 4^6 = 4096 possible outcomes.

So to summarize: It seems faster (and more accurate) to loop over all possible outcomes, compute the possibility of each outcome and sum it all up.
Such flammable little insects!
LimitSEA
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia9580 Posts
October 27 2012 14:17 GMT
#163
These are some crazy awesome groups. Group E for the group of death, but holy ass is Group A close.
Long live the King of Wings
Sableyeah
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands2119 Posts
October 27 2012 14:22 GMT
#164
Tbh, last season looked much scarier ^^ Group E is gonna be fun
BoA | Sunny | HyunA | ChoA | Hyemi // Preoccupied with a single leaf, you won't see the tree. Preoccupied with a single tree and you will miss the entire f0rest - Takuan Soho
ThomasjServo
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
15244 Posts
October 27 2012 14:27 GMT
#165
At least no PvP for Liquid'Hero in his group, doesn't make it an easy one by any stretch of the imagination.
opasnysid
Profile Joined October 2012
4 Posts
October 27 2012 14:29 GMT
#166
--- Nuked ---
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
October 27 2012 14:30 GMT
#167
On October 27 2012 23:11 Rannasha wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2012 21:54 TheBB wrote:
On October 27 2012 21:24 Shellshock1122 wrote:
On October 27 2012 19:24 TheBB wrote:
These are the probabilities for each player to advance, based on their current Elo ratings. Note that the ratings could change before the groups are played (as will certainly be the case with DRG and Rain for example).

Group F is certainly the most even group, with the most and least likely players not even 4% away from a pure coinflip. Group D is also very close. Group C, G and H are the most uneven.

The biggest favourites to advance are Life, Hero, Squirtle, Hero, Curious, Taeja and Leenock.

The biggest favourites to drop out are Soulkey, Bogus, Bbyong and Baby. (Note that some Kespa players are still underrated.)

+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +
Group A

      TaeJa: 77.553%
      PartinG: 49.076%
      Polt: 43.950%
      finale: 29.421%

+ Show Spoiler [Group B] +
Group B

      Symbol: 66.833%
      RorO: 60.818%
      Hack: 41.677%
      IMHappy: 30.672%

+ Show Spoiler [Group C] +
Group C

      HerO: 85.972%
      Curious: 79.079%
      Maru: 26.324%
      Neo.G_Soulkey: 8.625%

+ Show Spoiler [Group D] +
Group D

      By.Sun: 61.782%
      GuMiho: 49.263%
      HyuN: 45.195%
      YoDa: 43.760%

+ Show Spoiler [Group E] +
Group E

      Creator: 69.455%
      Mvp: 69.032%
      DongRaeGu: 50.428%
      Bbyong: 11.085%

+ Show Spoiler [Group F] +
Group F

      MarineKing: 53.273%
      sHy: 51.546%
      Sniper: 48.617%
      Seed: 46.565%

+ Show Spoiler [Group G] +
Group G

      Squirtle: 85.393%
      Leenock: 76.368%
      KeeN: 28.836%
      Bogus: 9.403%

+ Show Spoiler [Group H] +
Group H

      Life: 94.610%
      Vampire: 46.012%
      Ryung: 41.083%
      BaBy: 18.295%

I like how you were doing this for the up and down groups and it seems relatively accurate, but I have a question about how you come up with the percentages. Is the program based on assuming they all play each other? I guess I'm just having trouble seeing how it would predict a group that isn't using a round robin format. I could see how it's all working with the up and down matches but do you have it set up so it takes into account who their first opponent is + assuming who the second opponent is, etc? Or is it just in general? Very interesting stuff, though.

For a round robin group I run 100,000 simulations and count the frequency of each outcome. (Opterown's suggestion of 1,000 is really not enough to get accurate numbers in a 6-player group, for instance. Ideally I would like to do even more.)

Why do you use MC to compute the outcome of a round robin group? In case of the U&D system of Bo1 series, a 5-player group only has 10 matches, so 1024 possible outcomes. A 6-player group has 15 matches and ~32K possible outcomes. It seems easier to just iterate over all possible outcomes than it is to do *more* simulations than there are possible outcomes.

Things don't get much worse with Bo3 round-robin groups. A single Bo3 has 4 possible outcomes instead of the 2 possible outcomes of a Bo1. So a 6-player group would have 4^15 = 2^30 ~ 1B possible outcomes. This gets tricky, but it's doable still. But in reality, we only see Bo3 round-robin groups with 4 players per group (in foreign tournaments). In this case you only have 4^6 = 4096 possible outcomes.

So to summarize: It seems faster (and more accurate) to loop over all possible outcomes, compute the possibility of each outcome and sum it all up.

Thanks for the input, sounds like good advice. I hadn't considered doing it that way.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
NFxJehuty
Profile Joined March 2012
United Kingdom58 Posts
October 27 2012 14:31 GMT
#168
wtfg.
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
October 27 2012 14:31 GMT
#169
Aaaand there we go.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
ZAiNs
Profile Joined July 2010
United Kingdom6525 Posts
October 27 2012 14:38 GMT
#170
A: TaeJa and Parting
B: RorO and Symbol
C: HerO and Soulkey
D: Rain and HyuN
E: Creator and Mvp
F: Seed and MarineKing
G: BoguS and Leenock
H: Life and Ryung
euskaltelteam
Profile Joined October 2012
Finland3 Posts
October 27 2012 14:40 GMT
#171
--- Nuked ---
HeeroFX
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States2704 Posts
October 27 2012 14:41 GMT
#172
Group E looks like a lot of fun haha
Fus
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden1112 Posts
October 27 2012 14:47 GMT
#173
Poor Bbyong =(
NaNiwa | Innovation | Flash | DeMuslim ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
jnd
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Czech Republic915 Posts
October 27 2012 14:52 GMT
#174
BaBy will have tough time in group H but he can do it.
Team 8 BaBy will be the next Terran Bonjwa in HoTS | HSC V, the best tournament in 2012 | GD Studio #1 no fluff esports show
Firkraag8
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden1006 Posts
October 27 2012 14:54 GMT
#175
No foreigners? Damn..
Too weird to live, too rare to die.
Wounded31
Profile Joined October 2011
124 Posts
October 27 2012 15:23 GMT
#176
A and E crazy
MKP!
ZAiNs
Profile Joined July 2010
United Kingdom6525 Posts
October 27 2012 15:26 GMT
#177
On October 27 2012 23:54 Firkraag8 wrote:
No foreigners? Damn..

Get used to it, it's unlikely we'll ever see a foreigner in Code S again, unless GOM gives Stephano a seed or something.
a176
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Canada6688 Posts
October 27 2012 15:27 GMT
#178
Wow, 7 kespa players.
starleague forever
ZerglingTwins
Profile Joined October 2012
United States850 Posts
October 27 2012 15:40 GMT
#179
So, basically everyone is good. No group of death.
Searching for my twin ling brother.
Adreme
Profile Joined June 2011
United States5574 Posts
October 27 2012 15:44 GMT
#180
On October 28 2012 00:26 ZAiNs wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2012 23:54 Firkraag8 wrote:
No foreigners? Damn..

Get used to it, it's unlikely we'll ever see a foreigner in Code S again, unless GOM gives Stephano a seed or something.


Well ya a seed is pretty much the only way a foreigner would get into code S because no foreigner who really has a good shot at getting thru would even try to go thru all the qualifiers when there are perfectly good events that dont take months to get into.
Prev 1 7 8 9 10 11 13 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Replay Cast
08:00
The QMC Showmatch 1
CranKy Ducklings63
OSC
08:00
Masters Cup #151: Group A
davetesta19
Liquipedia
BSL Open Qualifier
04:00
Jungsu & Hasu #3
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 9056
Artosis 681
GuemChi 395
Dota 2
NeuroSwarm205
monkeys_forever31
League of Legends
Doublelift5796
JimRising 415
Counter-Strike
minikerr0
Super Smash Bros
AZ_Axe65
Heroes of the Storm
Grubby3993
Other Games
FrodaN2264
Liquid`RaSZi1780
C9.Mang0417
Livibee374
Maynarde161
Mew2King41
ArmadaUGS25
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick1180
[ Show 15 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Hupsaiya 128
• Sammyuel 31
• musti20045 25
• CranKy Ducklings SOOP22
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Other Games
• imaqtpie1445
• Scarra1227
• Shiphtur649
Upcoming Events
OSC
12h 14m
WardiTV Weekly
1d 11h
PiGosaur Cup
2 days
Kung Fu Cup
2 days
The PondCast
3 days
Online Event
4 days
Korean StarCraft League
5 days
Afreeca Starleague
5 days
Rush vs Soulkey
CranKy Ducklings
5 days
BSL Open Qualifier
5 days
[ Show More ]
Sparkling Tuna Cup
6 days
BSL Open Qualifier
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Acropolis #5 - GSB
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Copium Cup

Ongoing

ASL Season 22
Super Anchor Qualifying S3
Acropolis #5
HCC Season 3

Upcoming

Acropolis #5 - GSC
BSL Season 23
SC4ALL II: Brood War
BSL 23: Non-Korean Championship
HSC XXX
Stellar Fest 2: Lunar Cup
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.