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Code S Groups Released - Page 9

Forum Index > SC2 General
243 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 7 8 9 10 11 13 Next All
zOverdose
Profile Joined October 2012
Korea (South)8 Posts
October 27 2012 14:10 GMT
#161
Group A: Polt & Parting
Group B: Symbol & Happy
Group C: Curious & Maru
Group D: Rain & Gumiho
Group E: Creator & DRG
Group F: MarineKing & Seed
Group G: Leenock & KeeN
Group H: Life & Ryung
Grandmaster Zerg Player l [ Z - Life, Symbol, YellOw, Leenock ] [ P - Creator, JangBi, By. Rain, Genius ] [ T - Flash, Fantasy, Mvp, MKP ]
Rannasha
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Netherlands2398 Posts
October 27 2012 14:11 GMT
#162
On October 27 2012 21:54 TheBB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2012 21:24 Shellshock1122 wrote:
On October 27 2012 19:24 TheBB wrote:
These are the probabilities for each player to advance, based on their current Elo ratings. Note that the ratings could change before the groups are played (as will certainly be the case with DRG and Rain for example).

Group F is certainly the most even group, with the most and least likely players not even 4% away from a pure coinflip. Group D is also very close. Group C, G and H are the most uneven.

The biggest favourites to advance are Life, Hero, Squirtle, Hero, Curious, Taeja and Leenock.

The biggest favourites to drop out are Soulkey, Bogus, Bbyong and Baby. (Note that some Kespa players are still underrated.)

+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +
Group A

      TaeJa: 77.553%
      PartinG: 49.076%
      Polt: 43.950%
      finale: 29.421%

+ Show Spoiler [Group B] +
Group B

      Symbol: 66.833%
      RorO: 60.818%
      Hack: 41.677%
      IMHappy: 30.672%

+ Show Spoiler [Group C] +
Group C

      HerO: 85.972%
      Curious: 79.079%
      Maru: 26.324%
      Neo.G_Soulkey: 8.625%

+ Show Spoiler [Group D] +
Group D

      By.Sun: 61.782%
      GuMiho: 49.263%
      HyuN: 45.195%
      YoDa: 43.760%

+ Show Spoiler [Group E] +
Group E

      Creator: 69.455%
      Mvp: 69.032%
      DongRaeGu: 50.428%
      Bbyong: 11.085%

+ Show Spoiler [Group F] +
Group F

      MarineKing: 53.273%
      sHy: 51.546%
      Sniper: 48.617%
      Seed: 46.565%

+ Show Spoiler [Group G] +
Group G

      Squirtle: 85.393%
      Leenock: 76.368%
      KeeN: 28.836%
      Bogus: 9.403%

+ Show Spoiler [Group H] +
Group H

      Life: 94.610%
      Vampire: 46.012%
      Ryung: 41.083%
      BaBy: 18.295%

I like how you were doing this for the up and down groups and it seems relatively accurate, but I have a question about how you come up with the percentages. Is the program based on assuming they all play each other? I guess I'm just having trouble seeing how it would predict a group that isn't using a round robin format. I could see how it's all working with the up and down matches but do you have it set up so it takes into account who their first opponent is + assuming who the second opponent is, etc? Or is it just in general? Very interesting stuff, though.

For a round robin group I run 100,000 simulations and count the frequency of each outcome. (Opterown's suggestion of 1,000 is really not enough to get accurate numbers in a 6-player group, for instance. Ideally I would like to do even more.)


Why do you use MC to compute the outcome of a round robin group? In case of the U&D system of Bo1 series, a 5-player group only has 10 matches, so 1024 possible outcomes. A 6-player group has 15 matches and ~32K possible outcomes. It seems easier to just iterate over all possible outcomes than it is to do *more* simulations than there are possible outcomes.

Things don't get much worse with Bo3 round-robin groups. A single Bo3 has 4 possible outcomes instead of the 2 possible outcomes of a Bo1. So a 6-player group would have 4^15 = 2^30 ~ 1B possible outcomes. This gets tricky, but it's doable still. But in reality, we only see Bo3 round-robin groups with 4 players per group (in foreign tournaments). In this case you only have 4^6 = 4096 possible outcomes.

So to summarize: It seems faster (and more accurate) to loop over all possible outcomes, compute the possibility of each outcome and sum it all up.
Such flammable little insects!
LimitSEA
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia9580 Posts
October 27 2012 14:17 GMT
#163
These are some crazy awesome groups. Group E for the group of death, but holy ass is Group A close.
Long live the King of Wings
Sableyeah
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands2119 Posts
October 27 2012 14:22 GMT
#164
Tbh, last season looked much scarier ^^ Group E is gonna be fun
BoA | Sunny | HyunA | ChoA | Hyemi // Preoccupied with a single leaf, you won't see the tree. Preoccupied with a single tree and you will miss the entire f0rest - Takuan Soho
ThomasjServo
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
15244 Posts
October 27 2012 14:27 GMT
#165
At least no PvP for Liquid'Hero in his group, doesn't make it an easy one by any stretch of the imagination.
opasnysid
Profile Joined October 2012
4 Posts
October 27 2012 14:29 GMT
#166
--- Nuked ---
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
October 27 2012 14:30 GMT
#167
On October 27 2012 23:11 Rannasha wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2012 21:54 TheBB wrote:
On October 27 2012 21:24 Shellshock1122 wrote:
On October 27 2012 19:24 TheBB wrote:
These are the probabilities for each player to advance, based on their current Elo ratings. Note that the ratings could change before the groups are played (as will certainly be the case with DRG and Rain for example).

Group F is certainly the most even group, with the most and least likely players not even 4% away from a pure coinflip. Group D is also very close. Group C, G and H are the most uneven.

The biggest favourites to advance are Life, Hero, Squirtle, Hero, Curious, Taeja and Leenock.

The biggest favourites to drop out are Soulkey, Bogus, Bbyong and Baby. (Note that some Kespa players are still underrated.)

+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +
Group A

      TaeJa: 77.553%
      PartinG: 49.076%
      Polt: 43.950%
      finale: 29.421%

+ Show Spoiler [Group B] +
Group B

      Symbol: 66.833%
      RorO: 60.818%
      Hack: 41.677%
      IMHappy: 30.672%

+ Show Spoiler [Group C] +
Group C

      HerO: 85.972%
      Curious: 79.079%
      Maru: 26.324%
      Neo.G_Soulkey: 8.625%

+ Show Spoiler [Group D] +
Group D

      By.Sun: 61.782%
      GuMiho: 49.263%
      HyuN: 45.195%
      YoDa: 43.760%

+ Show Spoiler [Group E] +
Group E

      Creator: 69.455%
      Mvp: 69.032%
      DongRaeGu: 50.428%
      Bbyong: 11.085%

+ Show Spoiler [Group F] +
Group F

      MarineKing: 53.273%
      sHy: 51.546%
      Sniper: 48.617%
      Seed: 46.565%

+ Show Spoiler [Group G] +
Group G

      Squirtle: 85.393%
      Leenock: 76.368%
      KeeN: 28.836%
      Bogus: 9.403%

+ Show Spoiler [Group H] +
Group H

      Life: 94.610%
      Vampire: 46.012%
      Ryung: 41.083%
      BaBy: 18.295%

I like how you were doing this for the up and down groups and it seems relatively accurate, but I have a question about how you come up with the percentages. Is the program based on assuming they all play each other? I guess I'm just having trouble seeing how it would predict a group that isn't using a round robin format. I could see how it's all working with the up and down matches but do you have it set up so it takes into account who their first opponent is + assuming who the second opponent is, etc? Or is it just in general? Very interesting stuff, though.

For a round robin group I run 100,000 simulations and count the frequency of each outcome. (Opterown's suggestion of 1,000 is really not enough to get accurate numbers in a 6-player group, for instance. Ideally I would like to do even more.)

Why do you use MC to compute the outcome of a round robin group? In case of the U&D system of Bo1 series, a 5-player group only has 10 matches, so 1024 possible outcomes. A 6-player group has 15 matches and ~32K possible outcomes. It seems easier to just iterate over all possible outcomes than it is to do *more* simulations than there are possible outcomes.

Things don't get much worse with Bo3 round-robin groups. A single Bo3 has 4 possible outcomes instead of the 2 possible outcomes of a Bo1. So a 6-player group would have 4^15 = 2^30 ~ 1B possible outcomes. This gets tricky, but it's doable still. But in reality, we only see Bo3 round-robin groups with 4 players per group (in foreign tournaments). In this case you only have 4^6 = 4096 possible outcomes.

So to summarize: It seems faster (and more accurate) to loop over all possible outcomes, compute the possibility of each outcome and sum it all up.

Thanks for the input, sounds like good advice. I hadn't considered doing it that way.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
NFxJehuty
Profile Joined March 2012
United Kingdom58 Posts
October 27 2012 14:31 GMT
#168
wtfg.
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
October 27 2012 14:31 GMT
#169
Aaaand there we go.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
ZAiNs
Profile Joined July 2010
United Kingdom6525 Posts
October 27 2012 14:38 GMT
#170
A: TaeJa and Parting
B: RorO and Symbol
C: HerO and Soulkey
D: Rain and HyuN
E: Creator and Mvp
F: Seed and MarineKing
G: BoguS and Leenock
H: Life and Ryung
euskaltelteam
Profile Joined October 2012
Finland3 Posts
October 27 2012 14:40 GMT
#171
--- Nuked ---
HeeroFX
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States2704 Posts
October 27 2012 14:41 GMT
#172
Group E looks like a lot of fun haha
Fus
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden1112 Posts
October 27 2012 14:47 GMT
#173
Poor Bbyong =(
NaNiwa | Innovation | Flash | DeMuslim ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
jnd
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Czech Republic915 Posts
October 27 2012 14:52 GMT
#174
BaBy will have tough time in group H but he can do it.
Team 8 BaBy will be the next Terran Bonjwa in HoTS | HSC V, the best tournament in 2012 | GD Studio #1 no fluff esports show
Firkraag8
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden1006 Posts
October 27 2012 14:54 GMT
#175
No foreigners? Damn..
Too weird to live, too rare to die.
Wounded31
Profile Joined October 2011
124 Posts
October 27 2012 15:23 GMT
#176
A and E crazy
MKP!
ZAiNs
Profile Joined July 2010
United Kingdom6525 Posts
October 27 2012 15:26 GMT
#177
On October 27 2012 23:54 Firkraag8 wrote:
No foreigners? Damn..

Get used to it, it's unlikely we'll ever see a foreigner in Code S again, unless GOM gives Stephano a seed or something.
a176
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Canada6688 Posts
October 27 2012 15:27 GMT
#178
Wow, 7 kespa players.
starleague forever
ZerglingTwins
Profile Joined October 2012
United States850 Posts
October 27 2012 15:40 GMT
#179
So, basically everyone is good. No group of death.
Searching for my twin ling brother.
Adreme
Profile Joined June 2011
United States5574 Posts
October 27 2012 15:44 GMT
#180
On October 28 2012 00:26 ZAiNs wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2012 23:54 Firkraag8 wrote:
No foreigners? Damn..

Get used to it, it's unlikely we'll ever see a foreigner in Code S again, unless GOM gives Stephano a seed or something.


Well ya a seed is pretty much the only way a foreigner would get into code S because no foreigner who really has a good shot at getting thru would even try to go thru all the qualifiers when there are perfectly good events that dont take months to get into.
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