EPTHomestory Cup V: Groups, Prize Pool & Tournament Sy - Page…
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Kevan
Sweden2303 Posts
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Dagobert
Netherlands1858 Posts
On July 03 2012 21:33 speknek wrote: Did you write a script or are those random %? I essentially used TLPD's vX ELOs to compute the probability for each player to advance. However, I tweaked the formula because you can't assume that a TvZ ELO 2200 player will beat a ZvT ELO 2150 player all the time, so I looked at what effect ELO difference makes, and drawing from very little data (that's where my formula is weakest; could easily improve it but that's where my laziness set in) I estimated 1 SD to affect each player's Pwin by 10% (so players within 114 ELO pts are 50%, 114-227 difference will make it 60/40 and so on). Then simply compute everything for all groups and voilá. Edit: Of course the data is biased now, but this predicts DH stage 3 group winners with 70% accuracy. Taking the raw ELO for the same formula predicts DHs3 winners with 81% accuracy, but for HSC the two only differ in their predictions of group E and H (with a 3-way-tie between Mana, Kas and Sleep in group F). Overall ELO sees MC and TLO go through for group E and Mvp and monchi win group H. Since I disagree with these, I chose vX ELO instead. | ||
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ReboundEU
508 Posts
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Nekovivie
United Kingdom2599 Posts
Can't wait :D | ||
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Azzur
Australia6267 Posts
 And they adopted the GSL format as well... down with double elimination tournaments! | ||
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Aunvilgod
2653 Posts
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Darrkhan
Finland1236 Posts
On July 03 2012 18:45 Champloo wrote: LOL I can't believe so many people think MVP is gonna win. This is not GSL where you can prepare cheese for opponent. I think MVP doesn't even know half of these players, and when he faces something like Bly's wacky playstyle he will have NO IDEA WTF is going on! This tournament is either won by MC or a European. You some what have a point but Mvp does not prepare to make cheeses (i believe you are angry for him winning gsl) he played 6 macro games against squirtle every one of them were were really well prepared for squirtles gamestyle and map design. But yeah Mvp might not know every player there but he is king of preparing and might want to look at his opponents gamestyle from replays etc. I think Mvp still has really good chances to advance if he have time to relax before tournament. MC will definitely do well and prepare for this. I think SaSe and YongHwa will also do great. SaSe has been on fire in latest tournaments and YongHwas way to victory in KR qualifiers was really hard you guys should pay more attention on him  I hope Naama will do well because i'm also from Finland but mostly i'm looking forward to see Naama casting some korean casting MC + Mvp :D | ||
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SolidMustard
France1515 Posts
On July 03 2012 22:45 Aunvilgod wrote: If Mvp wins this I´m gonna laugh so hard. I'm not sure what would be so funny about it... | ||
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TumNarDok
Germany854 Posts
Guess where the winner of the @HomeStoryCup V will go to.... #IEM | ||
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FloKi
1490 Posts
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Sphen5117
United States413 Posts
On July 03 2012 12:57 Noobity wrote: Sarcasm or no, nothing would make me happier. I think both are going to go down fighting tooth and nail at the least. This will be a break out event for a lot of players, I just have that feeling. I agree, I'd love to see both those guys really smash some nerds here. (But I'm predicting Incontrol 4 - 3 Destiny. I wager five internets). | ||
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blacklist_member
Australia318 Posts
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sekalf
Sweden522 Posts
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uikos
United States132 Posts
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Nekovivie
United Kingdom2599 Posts
On July 03 2012 22:45 Aunvilgod wrote: If Mvp wins this I´m gonna laugh so hard. What would be funny about that? If anything, hes probably the favourite.. | ||
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stratmatt
United States913 Posts
On July 03 2012 23:08 Nekovivie wrote: What would be funny about that? If anything, hes probably the favourite.. I think it would be hilarious as well because MVP is the best sc2 pro of all-time so far yet he recieves like half the attention of some bigger name foreigner players and gets a lot of shit from people who say he cant win outside the gsl(ye right, man lol). People like naniwa who say that mvp "isnt that good, he just prepares well." Are you kidding me? Mvp makes splitsecond ingame decisions every single match that puts him in a position to win. Ive never seen a guy with so many fluid builds that he can just adapt based on scouting. Thats why he is so dangerous, not because he 'prepares' well. I expect him to crush this tourny. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
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GoingGoingGone
Slovakia529 Posts
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AysiktiriX
358 Posts
I hope for some hilariously bad games with him casting, lol, this is at least a tournament, where player-to-player(when casting) bashing is OK. | ||
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Coppii
Norway57 Posts
Really looking forward to watching the entire show! :D | ||
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