My predictions

Group A: Nerchio, Socke, ToD, Naama
Group B: ClouD, IdrA, Bly, BlinG
Group C: Ret, Happy, ReaL, iNcontroL
Group D: SaSe, GoOdy, DIMAGA, DarKFoRcE
Group E: MC, HasuObs, Tarson, TLO
Group F: MaNa, Sleep, Kas, Destiny
Group G: Sheth, YongHwa, sLivko, DBS
Group H: mvp, Golden, NightEnD, monchi

pallad

Poland1958 Posts

July 03 2012 15:54 GMT

#342

LOL almost no one pick Nerchio out of group A ?
Nerchio and Socke top 2 in this group EZ.

TheOneAboveU

Germany3367 Posts

July 03 2012 15:59 GMT

#343

Ok I´ll try myself aswell:
A: Nerchio and Socke, but ToD has a decent chance to upset (if you can call that upset). You shouldt never underestimate Naama tho.
B: I can see ClouD, IdrA or Bly advancing here, but not BlinG I think. IdrA can go 6:0 or 0:6... hmm I go with the Zergs, IdrA and Bly.
C: Obv. Ret for number 1, but place to will be a heavy fight between Happy and ReaL... I hope for ReaL.
D: I wouldt like to see the two Germans advancing obv., but SaSe and Dima are to strong I guess. DF can upset them maybe.
E: MC and Hasu.
F: Kas and MaNa.
G: YongHwa and as my Dark Horse DBS, who has been on fire lately and giving us great games in TSL 4 Quali and EPS.
H: Mvp and monchi, so Nightend can cast =)

TKK

41 Posts

July 03 2012 16:09 GMT

#344

they forget to invite daisy.
korean player who recently moved to germany and is playing for german team ESC and easily qualified for TSL4 a few weeks ago.

speknek

758 Posts

July 03 2012 16:11 GMT

#345

On July 03 2012 22:19 Dagobert wrote:

Show nested quote +

On July 03 2012 21:33 speknek wrote:

On July 03 2012 21:21 Dagobert wrote:

On July 03 2012 19:08 furo wrote:
Group A: Nerchio, Socke, ToD, Naama
Nerchio, Socke are the obv choices for sure.

Group B: ClouD, IdrA, Bly, Bling
i think Cloud wont make it vs 2 zergs, which leaves 1 zerg getting trough, Bling is not in top form right now so i go with the two zergs to make it out of groups. Bly, IdrA.
Since neither really took something down lately its prolly the easiest group, either of them would have no chance in the other ones.

Group C: Ret, Happy, ReaL, IncontroL
Ret, Real will make it.
Incontrol is not really in a good shape (if he ever was). Happy might upset us if he can beat both protoss.

Group D: SaSe, GoOdy, Dimaga, DarK.FoRcE
SaSe, Dimaga will make it.
maybe DF can upset
Goody will have no chance vs 2 good zergs who can exploid him and SaSe is a monster vs terrans

Group E: MC, HasuObs, Tarson, TLO
MC, Hasu will go trough.
maybe TLO can upset if his PvZ is great. He recently lost to Hasu 1:2 in uber close matches at the german WCS. since he will come from korea and maybe be a bit tired i dont think he can make it tho.
poor Tarson will not have any chances but he obv has to be at every HSC

Group F: MaNa, Sleep, Kas, Destiny
will be close between MaNa, Kas and Sleep. Destiny will have alot of time to play poker.
i go with Sleep and Kas to make it.

Group G: Sheth, YongHwa, Slivko, DBS
i have not seen alot of sheth lately, Slivko and DBS can upset everyone. DBS will prepare like crazy for this event so i think he will have decent chances.
i'll go with YongHwa and DBS.

Group F: MVP, Golden, NightenD, Monchi
MVP and Golden are my picks. maybe Monchi or Nightend can upset.

According to my analysis...

A: Nerchio (67%), Socke (50%), ToD (43%), Naama (40%)
B: Bly (57%), Bling (57%), Cloud (43%), Idra (43%)
C: Happy (60%), Ret (57%), Real (50%), Incontrol (33%)
D: Sase (63%), Dimaga (53%), Darkforce (43%), Goody (40%)
E: MC (70%), Hasuobs (53%), TLO (40%), Tarson (37%)
F: Sleep (60%), Kas (57%), Mana (50%), Destiny (33%)
G: Slivko (57%), Sheth (50%), Yonghwa (47%), DBS (47%)
H: Mvp (57%), Nightend (50%), Monchi (50%), Golden (43%)

So that will be my prediction.

Did you write a script or are those random %?

I essentially used TLPD's vX ELOs to compute the probability for each player to advance.
However, I tweaked the formula because you can't assume that a TvZ ELO 2200 player will beat a ZvT ELO 2150 player all the time, so I looked at what effect ELO difference makes, and drawing from very little data (that's where my formula is weakest; could easily improve it but that's where my laziness set in) I estimated 1 SD to affect each player's Pwin by 10% (so players within 114 ELO pts are 50%, 114-227 difference will make it 60/40 and so on). Then simply compute everything for all groups and voilá.

Edit: Of course the data is biased now, but this predicts DH stage 3 group winners with 70% accuracy.
Taking the raw ELO for the same formula predicts DHs3 winners with 81% accuracy, but for HSC the two only differ in their predictions of group E and H (with a 3-way-tie between Mana, Kas and Sleep in group F). Overall ELO sees MC and TLO go through for group E and Mvp and monchi win group H. Since I disagree with these, I chose vX ELO instead.

Alright cool, thanks for replying. Love me some stats & prob :d

Was thinking of doing something similar myself, but I'm lazy and got exams atm ;(

Fortunate S0n

Switzerland44 Posts

July 03 2012 16:11 GMT

#346

GO MVP!

MrJoKer

France232 Posts

July 03 2012 16:13 GMT

#347

Homestory cup is a badass tournament . I love it .

heartlxp

United States1258 Posts

July 03 2012 16:15 GMT

#348

do it mvp!

DDie

Brazil2369 Posts

July 03 2012 16:15 GMT

#349

Damn, it's that time of the year again.

It looks like it was yesterday we had homestory cup IV.

Soma Cruz

United States209 Posts

July 03 2012 17:01 GMT

#350

Hahaha, Destiny has Kas in his group. Kas doesn't like Destiny too much, xd.

Good luck to him, would like to see him take at least one series. But if he gets knocked out sooner, more casting!

RuzaSK

Slovakia117 Posts

July 03 2012 17:01 GMT

#351

All of the groups are pretty stacked :D it's good but also bad as I can't choose who to cheer for :D

also I really like the race distribution, all races in each of the groups should be fun

Ireniicus

United Kingdom374 Posts

July 03 2012 17:06 GMT

#352

As long as Bling crushes Idra, Destiny loses every game and Happy makes Incontrol unHappy I will be smiling

Dashmaster47

Germany25 Posts

July 03 2012 17:19 GMT

#353

On July 03 2012 23:31 yoshi7319 wrote:
Any info on streams, passes?
seem to stupid to find any...
thx

Here's a little explanation by the TaKeTV Crew, how to get Premium and what it costs:

http://taketv.net/news/taketv-premium-03-07-12-7231

Olinim

4044 Posts

July 03 2012 17:21 GMT

#354

Predictions:

Nerchio Socke
Cloud Bly
Ret Real
Sase Dimaga
MC Hasuobs
Mana Sleep
Sheth Yonghwa
MVP golden

Ktk

Korea (South)753 Posts

July 03 2012 17:22 GMT

#355

the koreans by names alone don't seem as fun as last time with mc, mkp, etc.

hopefully they will smile some more at Homestory

correction: hopefully they will prove that they are fun too :3

Mrvoodoochild1

United States1439 Posts

July 03 2012 17:22 GMT

#356

MVP should take it as there are no real elite zergs at the tourny

yoshi7319

76 Posts

July 03 2012 17:24 GMT

#357

thanks, Robin, Dash,

finally found it...ordering via paypal doesn´t work atm - maybe someone can fix this?!

Snow948

Germany83 Posts

July 03 2012 17:29 GMT

#358

I think Goody can surprise with second Place in his group.

sVnteen

Germany2238 Posts

July 03 2012 17:31 GMT

#359

groups b c and f should be the easiest just because idra incontrol and destiny are in there

the other groups seem quite stacked

why does everyone think idra is going to have a chance of making it out of the groups?
if he plays anything like he did in the last ~10 months he will get smashed I think

nerchio MVP and MC are definitely my favourites to win it all (since stephano isn't there