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On June 11 2012 19:30 Insane wrote:OK actually the problem seems to get worse as you get more games  . Now I only have the very first "4" and everything else is dots... ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/KXKCHl.png) On another note, that concludes getting the account to master MMR from bronze during the lock week. I played 137 games (Excal had really tanked the MMR  ), with a final score of 129-8 (43-7 TvZ, 43-1 TvT, 43-0 TvP; I knew my TvZ sucked and expected to lose by far the most in it, so hurray for being right). I had a 53 56 game marathon today since it was the first day I hadn't had to work / other plans. I also played enough games to be the player with the highest amount of points in Bronze globally  e: miscounted games before.
nice is this average or normal graph?
the numbers. yeah i thought about make it scrollable. will look into it.
You can still mouseover the dots to see the gamenummber
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I'd suggest just calculating how many numbers you have space for and only showing those, like 1 5 9, etc.
Related: It would be very nice if it were possible to zoom in to a vertical slice like we currently can to a horizontal slice, so that we can just look at our last 20 games or whatever.
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On June 12 2012 00:02 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
I'd suggest just calculating how many numbers you have space for and only showing those, like 1 5 9, etc.
Related: It would be very nice if it were possible to zoom in to a vertical slice like we currently can to a horizontal slice, so that we can just look at our last 20 games or whatever.
I did not write the graph api by myself. Its jfreechart.
So i have limited controll over it.
Only to show diffrent colors on one graph i have to overwrite part of the api code
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United States12280 Posts
So what have we learned about new offsets as a result of Insane running the test?
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On June 12 2012 00:17 Excalibur_Z wrote:
So what have we learned about new offsets as a result of Insane running the test?
not much yet.
im busy in reallife and with debugging. Notthat did not analyse it yet i think.
Will speak with him
One problem is the huge pointchange and the high deveration that comes with this
i formated and filtered all data and deleted all bad version and other bad data.
Have to add the mmr calculation into it and will publish hole season 7 data after that.
I have the data until diamond in my clean file and it looks very good. D+ dont care for the opponent. Means if red and blue line is equal we have the right offset for his broncetier and the guys he played
We have to look into his games vs master if the bronce - master range in total is correct
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Thanks for taking the time to do this!
First 40 wins removed as your adj pts to opponent DMMR relation is below cap.
First graph is your win count and adj pts change:
![[image loading]](http://s13.postimage.org/lmt7inzpv/Win_count_vs_adj_pts_change.jpg)
We can see that as you win more and more, your MMR raises faster than your adj pts and as a result your adj pts start raising faster the more games go on. Eventually they should average 16 points change per match, to match your MMR change.
Second graph is your win count and opponent DMMR (DMMR = opponent MMR - your league and tier offset):
![[image loading]](http://s13.postimage.org/ebxp6jjbn/Win_count_vs_opponent_DMMR.jpg)
7 losses marked in red.
Trend line gives slope of 15.58. It would probably been around 16 if you won all games.
First two graphs were just for show, they demonstrate everything works as expected but don't really teach us anything new. This one is the money graph:
![[image loading]](http://s12.postimage.org/iabucrek9/Opponent_league_and_DMMR.jpg)
As leagues are locked it's possible some of your opponents were well outside their normal league range, like that Bronze guy.
Looking at your record of 129-8, we would expect your MMR to have increased by roughly 121*16 = 1936.
I'm going to go over the data some more and see what I can get from it regarding offsets. Just wanted to post these graphs and let you know your work is being put to good use
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Insane was kind enough to go over all the games with me and we've corrected a few inaccuracies and missing games caused by our need to interact with the web server. So now we have all the correct data of his games. Here's what the graph looks like:
![[image loading]](http://s9.postimage.org/jwnd3vtfv/astraflame.jpg)
Games start from after the last game where Insane is capped.
The blue line is his adj points at the beginning of the game.
The red line is an estimation of his MMR, which raises by 16 after wins, lowers by 16 after losses, and brings the MMR difference between the two players over the course of the entire 99 games to a minimum. Obviously I don't expect MMR to behave like this every game but on average it should be pretty accurate.
Let's sort the graph by opponent DMMR:
![[image loading]](http://s17.postimage.org/cc7ygyyrf/astraflame2.jpg)
Of course it's entirely possible for a player in league X to have higher MMR than a player in a league above him. Even more so than usual during the league locks.
I'm trying to figure out the offset difference between Insane's Bronze division and Master. A simple way to go about it would be to average the DMMR difference between Insane and his opponents. This gives a value of 1528 (keep in mind we still gotta determine Insane's Bronze tier, but this should be doable, probably the highest tier or the one below it). The problem is there is a bias in the data.
As you can tell from the first graph, the best fit MMR approximation for Insane places his MMR below his Master opponents in all the games. This is because his MMR finished barely into Master league, so naturally all his Master opponents were at the higher end of the opponent's MMR that the match making system picked for him. This means that the 1528 value is probably inflated somewhat. For reference based on our latest offsets, the offset difference between Master and highest tier Bronze is 1338, and 1435 between Master and second highest tier in Bronze.
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Just a heads up, something MAY have changed in Season 8 with MMR. I just played my first placement match (vs another placement match opponent) yet didn't get the standard favoured etc, there was no indicator at all.
Also, after winning the match I got +0 points, I don't think I would have been so far ahead MMR wise for my opponent to make that a 'valid' standard result as he was top masters last season.
Or nothing may have changed, just thought it was weird and I'm pretty sure it has never happened like that in the initial placement match for me before.
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United States12280 Posts
On June 12 2012 07:40 Peleus wrote:
Just a heads up, something MAY have changed in Season 8 with MMR. I just played my first placement match (vs another placement match opponent) yet didn't get the standard favoured etc, there was no indicator at all.
Also, after winning the match I got +0 points, I don't think I would have been so far ahead MMR wise for my opponent to make that a 'valid' standard result as he was top masters last season.
Or nothing may have changed, just thought it was weird and I'm pretty sure it has never happened like that in the initial placement match for me before.
Initial placement matches never have the Favored display or any point gains/losses because you're still in placement and have no points to gain or lose yet.
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Ok, I bow down to your expertise and stand corrected. Never remember it happening before but clearly I am incorrect Thanks for the correction.
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-improved the algorithem and added some gui stuff for the graph.
-We are working on new, better offsets. Thx to insane and astraflame
-Also cleaned the data of season 7 and will upload 20k games with good data.
-Will upload new version in next session.
-Next version will be only supported one for next session. Data from older version will be ignored.
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For Americas region the website is already prepared for Season 8, but I guess Europe is still on S7.
When are you uploading the new plugin? I want to start laddering with him. ^^
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BTW, here is my Europe graph:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ayjJN.jpg)
It took me very few games to reach my true MMR (high plat), proving the MMR moves way faster with a "new" account. Unfortunately I couldn't play much and ended winning 23-24 points to high plats low dia, which tell us nothing I guess...
Anyway, I tried =3
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I played a couple of games today, after the season change i ended up with the following error in logs
+ Show Spoiler +18:22:39 Game Start detected 18:23:20 FATALERROR WEBGRABBER Wrong Season! Update your DB File 18:23:20 Webgrabber Player false 18:23:20 No Profile, skip 18:23:20 Webgrabber Opponent false
I have not tested it before the season change but i can assure you i followed every instruction in the installation file. I also tried the "download new database" under the data tab but that did not solve the issue
Thanks in advance
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On June 13 2012 07:56 Maxamix wrote:I played a couple of games today, after the season change i ended up with the following error in logs + Show Spoiler +18:22:39 Game Start detected 18:23:20 FATALERROR WEBGRABBER Wrong Season! Update your DB File 18:23:20 Webgrabber Player false 18:23:20 No Profile, skip 18:23:20 Webgrabber Opponent false I have not tested it before the season change but i can assure you i followed every instruction in the installation file. I also tried the "download new database" under the data tab but that did not solve the issue Thanks in advance
New DB for season 8 will be publishd with version 4.0 when all servers changed to season 8 (tomorrow)
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Data files do not carry over between seasons as we need the exact second of the season start. We'll probably have one done tomorrow after EU is in season 8.
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Wow thanks for a fast responce
Aprreciated
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On June 13 2012 07:47 SDream wrote:BTW, here is my Europe graph: It took me very few games to reach my true MMR (high plat), proving the MMR moves way faster with a "new" account. Unfortunately I couldn't play much and ended winning 23-24 points to high plats low dia, which tell us nothing I guess... Anyway, I tried =3
it clearly proves your point. I never saw an old account moving that fast.
Its an suprise, that the system is so simple.
Only a new account have a sigma and it get smaller with each game.
If i designed the system, i would let sigma raise again if you play for longer time diffrent than expected.
But easyer to analyse for us this way 
btw: rightclick on the graph - print , way easyer to make a screenshot
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Not sure if it helps or not, but I was promoted to gold first game into the new season. My MMR Graph (as of last night) looked like this:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/h9nLZ.jpg)
I also have a log where I tracked my stats for games separately.
Anyway, thanks for the tool, I've been struggling along in silver for three seasons and actually knowing my stats motivated me to try harder.
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EPT
