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TvZ is another story and I think we will soon again see BL-Infestor numbers on the win ratios.
Very unlikely actually. Maybe 55-45 but not more. The thing is that terran is already so hugely underpresented everywhere that the terran lefts are of the highest highest calibar. Thus, even if there is an imbalance, the remaining terrans will still be able to create win/rates relatively close to 50-50. But ofc that doesn't mean TvZ is balanced.
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On April 18 2014 23:02 Glorfindel! wrote:
Well - the maps in TvZ as of now are so freakingly big that Bio is impossible to play vs MutaLingBling. The Creep spread reaches so far when you push out its sucidial walking out on it and meanwhile you walk across the map you get harassed by mutas. Zerg also has extremly easy to reach +75 Drones without feeling threatned.
I think TvP will even out a little after the widow mine buff and the new map pool, even though it will still be P favoured. However TvZ is another story and I think we will soon again see BL-Infestor numbers on the win ratios.
Four Terrans this season. Three Terrans last season in GSL Code S.
Still the community keeps telling Terrans l2p. Still Blizzard wants Terrans to figure stuff out.
Like there are Terran pro gamers playing the game +8 hours a day and have done so for months and months. I think the days of figuring stuff out is long gone actually.
If Terran not is a need of some buffs rights now, when is ever a race?
Some map stats from TLPD for TvZ (I think they lag a day behind!):
Map overall/April
Alterzim 23-11/6-2
Frost 118-116/7-14
Habitation Station 34-44/4-6
Merry Go Round 3-1/3-1
Overgrowth 2-2/2-2
The King Sejong Station 5-7/4-1
Waystation 2-2/2-2
TvZ stats overall
Aligulac list 108: 188-254
Aligulac list 109: 28–43
Aligulac last month: 412-445
Code A: 11-14
last Code A: 13-17
last Code S: 9-11
Proleague Round 3: 3-2
Proleague Round 2: 12-6
Proleague Round 1: 10-5
WCS AM S1 Challenger: 13-9
WCS AM S1 Premier: 14-21
WCS EU S1 Challenger: 16-14
WCS EU S1 Premier: 24-13
Apart from the last 2weeks, TvZ looks to be in a great state. flash getting cheesed a couple of times and fantasies cheeses being so smelly that Leenock eventually caught wind should really not put anybody in a state of panik.
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On April 18 2014 23:50 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2014 23:02 Glorfindel! wrote:
Well - the maps in TvZ as of now are so freakingly big that Bio is impossible to play vs MutaLingBling. The Creep spread reaches so far when you push out its sucidial walking out on it and meanwhile you walk across the map you get harassed by mutas. Zerg also has extremly easy to reach +75 Drones without feeling threatned.
I think TvP will even out a little after the widow mine buff and the new map pool, even though it will still be P favoured. However TvZ is another story and I think we will soon again see BL-Infestor numbers on the win ratios.
Four Terrans this season. Three Terrans last season in GSL Code S.
Still the community keeps telling Terrans l2p. Still Blizzard wants Terrans to figure stuff out.
Like there are Terran pro gamers playing the game +8 hours a day and have done so for months and months. I think the days of figuring stuff out is long gone actually.
If Terran not is a need of some buffs rights now, when is ever a race? Some map stats from TLPD for TvZ (I think they lag a day behind!): Map overall/AprilAlterzim 23-11/6-2 Frost 118-116/7-14 Habitation Station 34-44/4-6 Merry Go Round 3-1/3-1 Overgrowth 2-2/2-2 The King Sejong Station 5-7/4-1 Waystation 2-2/2-2 TvZ stats overallAligulac list 108: 188-254 Aligulac list 109: 28–43 Aligulac last month: 412-445 Code A: 11-14 last Code A: 13-17 last Code S: 9-11 Proleague Round 3: 3-2 Proleague Round 2: 12-6 Proleague Round 1: 10-5 WCS AM S1 Challenger: 13-9 WCS AM S1 Premier: 14-21 WCS EU S1 Challenger: 16-14 WCS EU S1 Premier: 24-13 Apart from the last 2weeks, TvZ looks to be in a great state. flash getting cheesed a couple of times and fantasies cheeses being so smelly that Leenock eventually caught wind should really not put anybody in a state of panik.
So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern.
Yet - no Terrans at all make deep runs into tournaments (except Tajea and Polt perhaps in the European ones) and we have two seasons in a row with less than 5 Terrans in Code S.
Does this not seem a bit... Weird? If everything is fine and in great shape, I mean.
How many months untill we actually see some kind of Terran hope? How mane seasons until we have a stable player base for Code S or even a major championship win for a terran until "we should reach a state of panik"?
I guess if Maru and Innovation finally are the only Terrans left making it into Code S - and goes like 3-3 and gets knocked out Win Ratios will still be around 50/50 and all other Terrans that got crushed before that should not be worried about. Cause in Code S, win ratios are decent?
The logic is.. Weird.
Quoting Stuichu:
"I'd like to thank Rain, Parting, Alicia, Stork, Seed, and Choya for telling me how imbalanced PvT is and how it is worse than the era of 1/1/1 and bl/infestor and how Protoss literally cant win and how the return of the TvT era has returned.
I mean my god, 4 Terrans in Code S and Byun still not caught. The hell is wrong with this world?"
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So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern.
Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days.
But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S.
The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches.
Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance.
When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup.
Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well.
And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ.
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On April 18 2014 23:50 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2014 23:02 Glorfindel! wrote:
Well - the maps in TvZ as of now are so freakingly big that Bio is impossible to play vs MutaLingBling. The Creep spread reaches so far when you push out its sucidial walking out on it and meanwhile you walk across the map you get harassed by mutas. Zerg also has extremly easy to reach +75 Drones without feeling threatned.
I think TvP will even out a little after the widow mine buff and the new map pool, even though it will still be P favoured. However TvZ is another story and I think we will soon again see BL-Infestor numbers on the win ratios.
Four Terrans this season. Three Terrans last season in GSL Code S.
Still the community keeps telling Terrans l2p. Still Blizzard wants Terrans to figure stuff out.
Like there are Terran pro gamers playing the game +8 hours a day and have done so for months and months. I think the days of figuring stuff out is long gone actually.
If Terran not is a need of some buffs rights now, when is ever a race? Some map stats from TLPD for TvZ (I think they lag a day behind!): Map overall/AprilAlterzim 23-11/6-2 Frost 118-116/7-14 Habitation Station 34-44/4-6 Merry Go Round 3-1/3-1 Overgrowth 2-2/2-2 The King Sejong Station 5-7/4-1 Waystation 2-2/2-2 TvZ stats overallAligulac list 108: 188-254 Aligulac list 109: 28–43 Aligulac last month: 412-445 Code A: 11-14 last Code A: 13-17 last Code S: 9-11 Proleague Round 3: 3-2 Proleague Round 2: 12-6 Proleague Round 1: 10-5 WCS AM S1 Challenger: 13-9 WCS AM S1 Premier: 14-21 WCS EU S1 Challenger: 16-14 WCS EU S1 Premier: 24-13 Apart from the last 2weeks, TvZ looks to be in a great state. flash getting cheesed a couple of times and fantasies cheeses being so smelly that Leenock eventually caught wind should really not put anybody in a state of panik.
More like last for weeks:
List 108: TvZ 194–265 (42.27%)
List 107: TvZ 163–214 (43.24%)
I dont watch a lot of sc2 lately but i noticed that bio stopped being viable after widow mine nerf(by not viable i mant that i dont think it can provide 50% winratio in macro games . Mech seemed imo too strong from my limited viewer expierience and im not sure if that changed or Terrans dont play mech.
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On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern. Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days. But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S. The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches. Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance. When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup. Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well. And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ.
Sigh...
You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM.
May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that.
By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o
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All i can say is that, given the handful of few terrans, when a terran isnt playing. there wont be that much viewers watching code S. viewership will most likely increase for code S if a terran is playing. cuz quite frankly. p v p and z v z is boring to watch and no one frankly cares.
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Is David Kim on board ? What happen to Battle reports ? So few players still playing, but a lot of retired already.
Lets see on eu terran: Sjow, Lucifron, Thorzain - the biggest stars retired due to protoss.
NA terran ? I dont know anyone good.
Only hope on koreans, but cmon - changing map pool doesnt do too much.
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On April 19 2014 02:56 Glorfindel! wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern. Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days. But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S. The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches. Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance. When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup. Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well. And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ. Sigh... You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM. May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that. By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o
using a "worst case expectation" prediction method it would roughly be 13:6:13.
Using a less pessimistic method, I'd guess we'd reach 8+ Terrans, given current winrates at the highest Korean level. Not perfect, but quite above what we have now.
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On April 19 2014 05:12 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2014 02:56 Glorfindel! wrote:On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern. Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days. But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S. The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches. Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance. When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup. Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well. And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ. Sigh... You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM. May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that. By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o using a "worst case expectation" prediction method it would roughly be 13:6:13. Using a less pessimistic method, I'd guess we'd reach 8+ Terrans, given current winrates at the highest Korean level. Not perfect, but quite above what we have now.
This is a totally random number, thrown out by yourself. I could say "given the current trends of strategy and game flow, we´d reach a number of 1 or 2." Would be the same bullshit.
Noone can tell, what would happen, but we have a some numbers, that are actually real. And those number show, the 2 least representations of GSL code S history go both to terran with 3 and 4. These are the numbers we have. The current system makes it easier than ever for a balance shift to affect representation numbers in code S. Without having to sit one entire season in code a only, terrams could have gone straight through, but it didn´t happen. You say some terrans underperformed in code A, maybe. Maybe others overperformed in the qualifiers. Noone knows. You say, Flash and Fantasy made horrible mistakes. During the 1-1-1 era, I could tell you stupid mistakes, that were made by protoss side, in every single Terran won game with that strategy. Still this was considered as a time of terran being OP. We had the whining "Protoss can win single games but not championships." We had this from the zerg side too for long. But now, where this is the case for terran, with the representation of terrans in finals during 2014 being the worst ever for a race since HotS release, everything is ok.
If you want SC2 being a 2race game, then just admit it. It´s fine if you think so. Because that´s what it is right now.
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On April 19 2014 06:08 TeeTS wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2014 05:12 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 02:56 Glorfindel! wrote:On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern. Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days. But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S. The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches. Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance. When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup. Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well. And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ. Sigh... You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM. May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that. By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o using a "worst case expectation" prediction method it would roughly be 13:6:13. Using a less pessimistic method, I'd guess we'd reach 8+ Terrans, given current winrates at the highest Korean level. Not perfect, but quite above what we have now. This is a totally random number, thrown out by yourself. I could say "given the current trends of strategy and game flow, we´d reach a number of 1 or 2." Would be the same bullshit. Noone can tell, what would happen, but we have a some numbers, that are actually real. And those number show, the 2 least representations of GSL code S history go both to terran with 3 and 4. These are the numbers we have. The current system makes it easier than ever for a balance shift to affect representation numbers in code S. Without having to sit one entire season in code a only, terrams could have gone straight through, but it didn´t happen. You say some terrans underperformed in code A, maybe. Maybe others overperformed in the qualifiers. Noone knows. You say, Flash and Fantasy made horrible mistakes. During the 1-1-1 era, I could tell you stupid mistakes, that were made by protoss side, in every single Terran won game with that strategy. Still this was considered as a time of terran being OP. We had the whining "Protoss can win single games but not championships." We had this from the zerg side too for long. But now, where this is the case for terran, with the representation of terrans in finals during 2014 being the worst ever for a race since HotS release, everything is ok. If you want SC2 being a 2race game, then just admit it. It´s fine if you think so. Because that´s what it is right now.
The difference is that I can explain how I got to my number. Yours is just - as you say - random bullshit you have thrown out.
Code A+S has 56 spots with this season being distributed as follows:
P : T : Z - 24:10:22
Giving those 56 players a way to compete for 32 Code S spots without favoring some (those that were previously Code S) you'd reach something like the numbers I gave. But this is quite pessimistic, given that 8-7-9 players had to make it through a qualifier first and not everybody above them would make it through as well. So an optimistic prognosis should tend more towards this 8-7-9 distribution.
Now, assuming that the ones that stayed in Code S or came from Code S should be favored over those coming from the qualifiers, the realistic distribution should be in between 24 : 10 : 22 (6Terrans) and 8 : 7 : 9 (10Terrans).
of course it's just a very simple method, still a thousand and one times more accurate than the nothing you present.
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On April 19 2014 06:26 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2014 06:08 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 05:12 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 02:56 Glorfindel! wrote:On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern. Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days. But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S. The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches. Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance. When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup. Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well. And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ. Sigh... You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM. May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that. By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o using a "worst case expectation" prediction method it would roughly be 13:6:13. Using a less pessimistic method, I'd guess we'd reach 8+ Terrans, given current winrates at the highest Korean level. Not perfect, but quite above what we have now. This is a totally random number, thrown out by yourself. I could say "given the current trends of strategy and game flow, we´d reach a number of 1 or 2." Would be the same bullshit. Noone can tell, what would happen, but we have a some numbers, that are actually real. And those number show, the 2 least representations of GSL code S history go both to terran with 3 and 4. These are the numbers we have. The current system makes it easier than ever for a balance shift to affect representation numbers in code S. Without having to sit one entire season in code a only, terrams could have gone straight through, but it didn´t happen. You say some terrans underperformed in code A, maybe. Maybe others overperformed in the qualifiers. Noone knows. You say, Flash and Fantasy made horrible mistakes. During the 1-1-1 era, I could tell you stupid mistakes, that were made by protoss side, in every single Terran won game with that strategy. Still this was considered as a time of terran being OP. We had the whining "Protoss can win single games but not championships." We had this from the zerg side too for long. But now, where this is the case for terran, with the representation of terrans in finals during 2014 being the worst ever for a race since HotS release, everything is ok. If you want SC2 being a 2race game, then just admit it. It´s fine if you think so. Because that´s what it is right now. The difference is that I can explain how I got to my number. Yours is just - as you say - random bullshit you have thrown out. Code A+S has 56 spots with this season being distributed as follows: P : T : Z - 24:10:22 Giving those 56 players a way to compete for 32 Code S spots without favoring some (those that were previously Code S) you'd reach something like the numbers I gave. But this is quite pessimistic, given that 8-7-9 players had to make it through a qualifier first and not everybody above them would make it through as well. So an optimistic prognosis should tend more towards this 8-7-9 distribution. Now, assuming that the ones that stayed in Code S or came from Code S should be favored over those coming from the qualifiers, the realistic distribution should be in between 24 : 10 : 22 (6Terrans) and 8 : 7 : 9 (10Terrans). of course it's just a very simple method, still a thousand and one times more accurate than the nothing you present.
you assume, that you would have the same ratio coming through a qualifier, when the 24 Code S players dropping down would participate there too. But that´s absolutely ridicoulus, because the quality of Z/P in the player pool of the qualifiers would increase dramatically with those 24 added, while the quality of terrans would remain widely untouched. By simplifying those complex things and making assumptions upon them, you will allways get wrong results. And no, those wrong results are not better than nothing, they are worse.
Because assuming something wrong and trying to take consequences out of it is allways worse, than assuming nothing and only take consequences out of the current reality.
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On April 19 2014 06:38 TeeTS wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2014 06:26 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:08 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 05:12 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 02:56 Glorfindel! wrote:On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern. Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days. But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S. The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches. Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance. When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup. Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well. And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ. Sigh... You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM. May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that. By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o using a "worst case expectation" prediction method it would roughly be 13:6:13. Using a less pessimistic method, I'd guess we'd reach 8+ Terrans, given current winrates at the highest Korean level. Not perfect, but quite above what we have now. This is a totally random number, thrown out by yourself. I could say "given the current trends of strategy and game flow, we´d reach a number of 1 or 2." Would be the same bullshit. Noone can tell, what would happen, but we have a some numbers, that are actually real. And those number show, the 2 least representations of GSL code S history go both to terran with 3 and 4. These are the numbers we have. The current system makes it easier than ever for a balance shift to affect representation numbers in code S. Without having to sit one entire season in code a only, terrams could have gone straight through, but it didn´t happen. You say some terrans underperformed in code A, maybe. Maybe others overperformed in the qualifiers. Noone knows. You say, Flash and Fantasy made horrible mistakes. During the 1-1-1 era, I could tell you stupid mistakes, that were made by protoss side, in every single Terran won game with that strategy. Still this was considered as a time of terran being OP. We had the whining "Protoss can win single games but not championships." We had this from the zerg side too for long. But now, where this is the case for terran, with the representation of terrans in finals during 2014 being the worst ever for a race since HotS release, everything is ok. If you want SC2 being a 2race game, then just admit it. It´s fine if you think so. Because that´s what it is right now. The difference is that I can explain how I got to my number. Yours is just - as you say - random bullshit you have thrown out. Code A+S has 56 spots with this season being distributed as follows: P : T : Z - 24:10:22 Giving those 56 players a way to compete for 32 Code S spots without favoring some (those that were previously Code S) you'd reach something like the numbers I gave. But this is quite pessimistic, given that 8-7-9 players had to make it through a qualifier first and not everybody above them would make it through as well. So an optimistic prognosis should tend more towards this 8-7-9 distribution. Now, assuming that the ones that stayed in Code S or came from Code S should be favored over those coming from the qualifiers, the realistic distribution should be in between 24 : 10 : 22 (6Terrans) and 8 : 7 : 9 (10Terrans). of course it's just a very simple method, still a thousand and one times more accurate than the nothing you present. you assume, that you would have the same ratio coming through a qualifier, when the 24 Code S players dropping down would participate there too. But that´s absolutely ridicoulus, because the quality of Z/P in the player pool of the qualifiers would increase dramatically with those 24 added, while the quality of terrans would remain widely untouched. By simplifying those complex things and making assumptions upon them, you will allways get wrong results. And no, those wrong results are not better than nothing, they are worse. Because assuming something wrong and trying to take consequences out of it is allways worse, than assuming nothing and only take consequences out of the current reality.
I already said that this assumption would be too optimistic (and lead to 10Terrans) for exactly the reasons you give as well.
Oh, and btw, we just had such a qualifier scenario for the Korean region. With only Zest and soO being seeded for the Global Tournament, the qualified players were 2P-4T-4Z.
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What all people who quate win rate between races do not understand, win rate does not indicate ballance, it indicate change.
Why? Because if one race stronger then other then if on ladder, one race will start to drop it's mmr and mmr of second race will start to increase until win rate balanced on 50%. The same try for competitions. One race start to drop until it will play easier opponents. At the end win rate again stop at 50%.
What REAL indicator of balance is race representation on top level. If one race underrepresented, that mean it fall down until only absolutly best members of that race can compete on this level.
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On April 19 2014 06:43 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2014 06:38 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 06:26 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:08 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 05:12 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 02:56 Glorfindel! wrote:On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern. Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days. But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S. The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches. Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance. When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup. Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well. And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ. Sigh... You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM. May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that. By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o using a "worst case expectation" prediction method it would roughly be 13:6:13. Using a less pessimistic method, I'd guess we'd reach 8+ Terrans, given current winrates at the highest Korean level. Not perfect, but quite above what we have now. This is a totally random number, thrown out by yourself. I could say "given the current trends of strategy and game flow, we´d reach a number of 1 or 2." Would be the same bullshit. Noone can tell, what would happen, but we have a some numbers, that are actually real. And those number show, the 2 least representations of GSL code S history go both to terran with 3 and 4. These are the numbers we have. The current system makes it easier than ever for a balance shift to affect representation numbers in code S. Without having to sit one entire season in code a only, terrams could have gone straight through, but it didn´t happen. You say some terrans underperformed in code A, maybe. Maybe others overperformed in the qualifiers. Noone knows. You say, Flash and Fantasy made horrible mistakes. During the 1-1-1 era, I could tell you stupid mistakes, that were made by protoss side, in every single Terran won game with that strategy. Still this was considered as a time of terran being OP. We had the whining "Protoss can win single games but not championships." We had this from the zerg side too for long. But now, where this is the case for terran, with the representation of terrans in finals during 2014 being the worst ever for a race since HotS release, everything is ok. If you want SC2 being a 2race game, then just admit it. It´s fine if you think so. Because that´s what it is right now. The difference is that I can explain how I got to my number. Yours is just - as you say - random bullshit you have thrown out. Code A+S has 56 spots with this season being distributed as follows: P : T : Z - 24:10:22 Giving those 56 players a way to compete for 32 Code S spots without favoring some (those that were previously Code S) you'd reach something like the numbers I gave. But this is quite pessimistic, given that 8-7-9 players had to make it through a qualifier first and not everybody above them would make it through as well. So an optimistic prognosis should tend more towards this 8-7-9 distribution. Now, assuming that the ones that stayed in Code S or came from Code S should be favored over those coming from the qualifiers, the realistic distribution should be in between 24 : 10 : 22 (6Terrans) and 8 : 7 : 9 (10Terrans). of course it's just a very simple method, still a thousand and one times more accurate than the nothing you present. you assume, that you would have the same ratio coming through a qualifier, when the 24 Code S players dropping down would participate there too. But that´s absolutely ridicoulus, because the quality of Z/P in the player pool of the qualifiers would increase dramatically with those 24 added, while the quality of terrans would remain widely untouched. By simplifying those complex things and making assumptions upon them, you will allways get wrong results. And no, those wrong results are not better than nothing, they are worse. Because assuming something wrong and trying to take consequences out of it is allways worse, than assuming nothing and only take consequences out of the current reality. I already said that this assumption would be too optimistic (and lead to 10Terrans) for exactly the reasons you give as well. Oh, and btw, we just had such a qualifier scenario for the Korean region. With only Zest and soO being seeded for the Global Tournament, the qualified players were 2P-4T-4Z.
But if you look at the finalist of each qualifier bracket,
you got 5T, 9P, 6Z. For that qualifier specifically, Ps just lost a lot of finals. They actually did quite well overall.
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On April 19 2014 14:09 vthree wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2014 06:43 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:38 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 06:26 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:08 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 05:12 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 02:56 Glorfindel! wrote:On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern. Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days. But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S. The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches. Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance. When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup. Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well. And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ. Sigh... You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM. May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that. By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o using a "worst case expectation" prediction method it would roughly be 13:6:13. Using a less pessimistic method, I'd guess we'd reach 8+ Terrans, given current winrates at the highest Korean level. Not perfect, but quite above what we have now. This is a totally random number, thrown out by yourself. I could say "given the current trends of strategy and game flow, we´d reach a number of 1 or 2." Would be the same bullshit. Noone can tell, what would happen, but we have a some numbers, that are actually real. And those number show, the 2 least representations of GSL code S history go both to terran with 3 and 4. These are the numbers we have. The current system makes it easier than ever for a balance shift to affect representation numbers in code S. Without having to sit one entire season in code a only, terrams could have gone straight through, but it didn´t happen. You say some terrans underperformed in code A, maybe. Maybe others overperformed in the qualifiers. Noone knows. You say, Flash and Fantasy made horrible mistakes. During the 1-1-1 era, I could tell you stupid mistakes, that were made by protoss side, in every single Terran won game with that strategy. Still this was considered as a time of terran being OP. We had the whining "Protoss can win single games but not championships." We had this from the zerg side too for long. But now, where this is the case for terran, with the representation of terrans in finals during 2014 being the worst ever for a race since HotS release, everything is ok. If you want SC2 being a 2race game, then just admit it. It´s fine if you think so. Because that´s what it is right now. The difference is that I can explain how I got to my number. Yours is just - as you say - random bullshit you have thrown out. Code A+S has 56 spots with this season being distributed as follows: P : T : Z - 24:10:22 Giving those 56 players a way to compete for 32 Code S spots without favoring some (those that were previously Code S) you'd reach something like the numbers I gave. But this is quite pessimistic, given that 8-7-9 players had to make it through a qualifier first and not everybody above them would make it through as well. So an optimistic prognosis should tend more towards this 8-7-9 distribution. Now, assuming that the ones that stayed in Code S or came from Code S should be favored over those coming from the qualifiers, the realistic distribution should be in between 24 : 10 : 22 (6Terrans) and 8 : 7 : 9 (10Terrans). of course it's just a very simple method, still a thousand and one times more accurate than the nothing you present. you assume, that you would have the same ratio coming through a qualifier, when the 24 Code S players dropping down would participate there too. But that´s absolutely ridicoulus, because the quality of Z/P in the player pool of the qualifiers would increase dramatically with those 24 added, while the quality of terrans would remain widely untouched. By simplifying those complex things and making assumptions upon them, you will allways get wrong results. And no, those wrong results are not better than nothing, they are worse. Because assuming something wrong and trying to take consequences out of it is allways worse, than assuming nothing and only take consequences out of the current reality. I already said that this assumption would be too optimistic (and lead to 10Terrans) for exactly the reasons you give as well. Oh, and btw, we just had such a qualifier scenario for the Korean region. With only Zest and soO being seeded for the Global Tournament, the qualified players were 2P-4T-4Z. But if you look at the finalist of each qualifier bracket, you got 5T, 9P, 6Z. For that qualifier specifically, Ps just lost a lot of finals. They actually did quite well overall.
yes. I think Terran over and Protoss underperformed in that qualifier, compared to what we should expect.
But note how 5/20 (25%) in the bracket finals exactly matches my 8/32 (25%) expectations for how many Terrans we should expect coming from such a qualifier for Code S.
It's actually a similar argument for Code A this season: Terrans got a lot of third places. From the 9 Terrans in Code A, there a 3 first places, 0 second places, 5 third places and 1 fourth place.
As a weighted average, that makes 2.4444, pretty much the expected 2.5 outcome. They just lost a ton of decider games, some of them just barely.
Again, 8/32 wouldn't be perfect still. 4/32 is really worrysome. But Code S seems to be the only place where this is happening like that, and imo math suggests that it - at least to a large degree - has to do with the 80% P>T in Code A from last season. And I really don't see what "patch conclusion for TvZ" we want to draw from flash and fantasy not making it in.
Nerf roach warren build time by 5seconds? I hardly think that would change those rushes that flash died to.
Buff bunker build time by 5seconds? Is it that what we want, fantasy going through with 2rax regardless whether it is scouted or not?
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The problem with TvZ is not a roach warren, cause if you are too greedy you should be punished, like 2 rax against very late pool.
The problem is late mid game, when T doesn't have 3 3 upgrades, and dies either to Mutalisk being in his base or swarming ling bane. After WM nerf Zergs most of the time just rolls over T armies.
PS: I agree that absolutely no feedback from the balance team about balance state is a liitle bit weird.
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On April 19 2014 17:45 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2014 14:09 vthree wrote:On April 19 2014 06:43 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:38 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 06:26 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:08 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 05:12 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 02:56 Glorfindel! wrote:On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern. Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days. But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S. The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches. Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance. When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup. Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well. And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ. Sigh... You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM. May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that. By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o using a "worst case expectation" prediction method it would roughly be 13:6:13. Using a less pessimistic method, I'd guess we'd reach 8+ Terrans, given current winrates at the highest Korean level. Not perfect, but quite above what we have now. This is a totally random number, thrown out by yourself. I could say "given the current trends of strategy and game flow, we´d reach a number of 1 or 2." Would be the same bullshit. Noone can tell, what would happen, but we have a some numbers, that are actually real. And those number show, the 2 least representations of GSL code S history go both to terran with 3 and 4. These are the numbers we have. The current system makes it easier than ever for a balance shift to affect representation numbers in code S. Without having to sit one entire season in code a only, terrams could have gone straight through, but it didn´t happen. You say some terrans underperformed in code A, maybe. Maybe others overperformed in the qualifiers. Noone knows. You say, Flash and Fantasy made horrible mistakes. During the 1-1-1 era, I could tell you stupid mistakes, that were made by protoss side, in every single Terran won game with that strategy. Still this was considered as a time of terran being OP. We had the whining "Protoss can win single games but not championships." We had this from the zerg side too for long. But now, where this is the case for terran, with the representation of terrans in finals during 2014 being the worst ever for a race since HotS release, everything is ok. If you want SC2 being a 2race game, then just admit it. It´s fine if you think so. Because that´s what it is right now. The difference is that I can explain how I got to my number. Yours is just - as you say - random bullshit you have thrown out. Code A+S has 56 spots with this season being distributed as follows: P : T : Z - 24:10:22 Giving those 56 players a way to compete for 32 Code S spots without favoring some (those that were previously Code S) you'd reach something like the numbers I gave. But this is quite pessimistic, given that 8-7-9 players had to make it through a qualifier first and not everybody above them would make it through as well. So an optimistic prognosis should tend more towards this 8-7-9 distribution. Now, assuming that the ones that stayed in Code S or came from Code S should be favored over those coming from the qualifiers, the realistic distribution should be in between 24 : 10 : 22 (6Terrans) and 8 : 7 : 9 (10Terrans). of course it's just a very simple method, still a thousand and one times more accurate than the nothing you present. you assume, that you would have the same ratio coming through a qualifier, when the 24 Code S players dropping down would participate there too. But that´s absolutely ridicoulus, because the quality of Z/P in the player pool of the qualifiers would increase dramatically with those 24 added, while the quality of terrans would remain widely untouched. By simplifying those complex things and making assumptions upon them, you will allways get wrong results. And no, those wrong results are not better than nothing, they are worse. Because assuming something wrong and trying to take consequences out of it is allways worse, than assuming nothing and only take consequences out of the current reality. I already said that this assumption would be too optimistic (and lead to 10Terrans) for exactly the reasons you give as well. Oh, and btw, we just had such a qualifier scenario for the Korean region. With only Zest and soO being seeded for the Global Tournament, the qualified players were 2P-4T-4Z. But if you look at the finalist of each qualifier bracket, you got 5T, 9P, 6Z. For that qualifier specifically, Ps just lost a lot of finals. They actually did quite well overall. yes. I think Terran over and Protoss underperformed in that qualifier, compared to what we should expect. But note how 5/20 (25%) in the bracket finals exactly matches my 8/32 (25%) expectations for how many Terrans we should expect coming from such a qualifier for Code S. It's actually a similar argument for Code A this season: Terrans got a lot of third places. From the 9 Terrans in Code A, there a 3 first places, 0 second places, 5 third places and 1 fourth place. As a weighted average, that makes 2.4444, pretty much the expected 2.5 outcome. They just lost a ton of decider games, some of them just barely. Again, 8/32 wouldn't be perfect still. 4/32 is really worrysome. But Code S seems to be the only place where this is happening like that, and imo math suggests that it - at least to a large degree - has to do with the 80% P>T in Code A from last season. And I really don't see what "patch conclusion for TvZ" we want to draw from flash and fantasy not making it in. Nerf roach warren build time by 5seconds? I hardly think that would change those rushes that flash died to. Buff bunker build time by 5seconds? Is it that what we want, fantasy going through with 2rax regardless whether it is scouted or not?
But your expected value of 2.5 is only if you had the top 15-16 of each race playing against each other. For Code A, we had the 2-10 th terrans playing against the 4-20th protoss and zergs. So actually, we should expect the terrans to do better than 2.5. If the balance was supposedly 'fix', this should have been the case, correct?
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On April 19 2014 17:45 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2014 14:09 vthree wrote:On April 19 2014 06:43 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:38 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 06:26 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:08 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 05:12 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 02:56 Glorfindel! wrote:On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:So TvZ win ratios are in great shape,
I bet if you look at TvP with the same eyes you will see a similar pattern. Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days. But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S. The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches. Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance. When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup. Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well. And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ. Sigh... You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM. May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that. By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o using a "worst case expectation" prediction method it would roughly be 13:6:13. Using a less pessimistic method, I'd guess we'd reach 8+ Terrans, given current winrates at the highest Korean level. Not perfect, but quite above what we have now. This is a totally random number, thrown out by yourself. I could say "given the current trends of strategy and game flow, we´d reach a number of 1 or 2." Would be the same bullshit. Noone can tell, what would happen, but we have a some numbers, that are actually real. And those number show, the 2 least representations of GSL code S history go both to terran with 3 and 4. These are the numbers we have. The current system makes it easier than ever for a balance shift to affect representation numbers in code S. Without having to sit one entire season in code a only, terrams could have gone straight through, but it didn´t happen. You say some terrans underperformed in code A, maybe. Maybe others overperformed in the qualifiers. Noone knows. You say, Flash and Fantasy made horrible mistakes. During the 1-1-1 era, I could tell you stupid mistakes, that were made by protoss side, in every single Terran won game with that strategy. Still this was considered as a time of terran being OP. We had the whining "Protoss can win single games but not championships." We had this from the zerg side too for long. But now, where this is the case for terran, with the representation of terrans in finals during 2014 being the worst ever for a race since HotS release, everything is ok. If you want SC2 being a 2race game, then just admit it. It´s fine if you think so. Because that´s what it is right now. The difference is that I can explain how I got to my number. Yours is just - as you say - random bullshit you have thrown out. Code A+S has 56 spots with this season being distributed as follows: P : T : Z - 24:10:22 Giving those 56 players a way to compete for 32 Code S spots without favoring some (those that were previously Code S) you'd reach something like the numbers I gave. But this is quite pessimistic, given that 8-7-9 players had to make it through a qualifier first and not everybody above them would make it through as well. So an optimistic prognosis should tend more towards this 8-7-9 distribution. Now, assuming that the ones that stayed in Code S or came from Code S should be favored over those coming from the qualifiers, the realistic distribution should be in between 24 : 10 : 22 (6Terrans) and 8 : 7 : 9 (10Terrans). of course it's just a very simple method, still a thousand and one times more accurate than the nothing you present. you assume, that you would have the same ratio coming through a qualifier, when the 24 Code S players dropping down would participate there too. But that´s absolutely ridicoulus, because the quality of Z/P in the player pool of the qualifiers would increase dramatically with those 24 added, while the quality of terrans would remain widely untouched. By simplifying those complex things and making assumptions upon them, you will allways get wrong results. And no, those wrong results are not better than nothing, they are worse. Because assuming something wrong and trying to take consequences out of it is allways worse, than assuming nothing and only take consequences out of the current reality. I already said that this assumption would be too optimistic (and lead to 10Terrans) for exactly the reasons you give as well. Oh, and btw, we just had such a qualifier scenario for the Korean region. With only Zest and soO being seeded for the Global Tournament, the qualified players were 2P-4T-4Z. But if you look at the finalist of each qualifier bracket, you got 5T, 9P, 6Z. For that qualifier specifically, Ps just lost a lot of finals. They actually did quite well overall. yes. I think Terran over and Protoss underperformed in that qualifier, compared to what we should expect. But note how 5/20 (25%) in the bracket finals exactly matches my 8/32 (25%) expectations for how many Terrans we should expect coming from such a qualifier for Code S. It's actually a similar argument for Code A this season: Terrans got a lot of third places. From the 9 Terrans in Code A, there a 3 first places, 0 second places, 5 third places and 1 fourth place. As a weighted average, that makes 2.4444, pretty much the expected 2.5 outcome. They just lost a ton of decider games, some of them just barely. Again, 8/32 wouldn't be perfect still. 4/32 is really worrysome. But Code S seems to be the only place where this is happening like that, and imo math suggests that it - at least to a large degree - has to do with the 80% P>T in Code A from last season. And I really don't see what "patch conclusion for TvZ" we want to draw from flash and fantasy not making it in. Nerf roach warren build time by 5seconds? I hardly think that would change those rushes that flash died to. Buff bunker build time by 5seconds? Is it that what we want, fantasy going through with 2rax regardless whether it is scouted or not?
Why would you think that the only things wrong with the TvZ MU are the precise builds Flash and Fantasy died to? I think by this point most non-Terrans will agree that the WM nerf was completely unnecessary. A lot of non-Terrans understood that even when it went live. Reverting the nerf would be by far the easiest fix Blizzard could ever make. It might also be the one thing needed to push non-Raven based mech from weird 'does it work, doesn't it work?' territory into being truly viable in TvZ.
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On April 19 2014 18:13 vthree wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2014 17:45 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 14:09 vthree wrote:On April 19 2014 06:43 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:38 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 06:26 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:08 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 05:12 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 02:56 Glorfindel! wrote:On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:
[quote]
Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days.
But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S.
The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches.
Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance.
When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup.
Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well.
And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ. Sigh... You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM. May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that. By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o using a "worst case expectation" prediction method it would roughly be 13:6:13. Using a less pessimistic method, I'd guess we'd reach 8+ Terrans, given current winrates at the highest Korean level. Not perfect, but quite above what we have now. This is a totally random number, thrown out by yourself. I could say "given the current trends of strategy and game flow, we´d reach a number of 1 or 2." Would be the same bullshit. Noone can tell, what would happen, but we have a some numbers, that are actually real. And those number show, the 2 least representations of GSL code S history go both to terran with 3 and 4. These are the numbers we have. The current system makes it easier than ever for a balance shift to affect representation numbers in code S. Without having to sit one entire season in code a only, terrams could have gone straight through, but it didn´t happen. You say some terrans underperformed in code A, maybe. Maybe others overperformed in the qualifiers. Noone knows. You say, Flash and Fantasy made horrible mistakes. During the 1-1-1 era, I could tell you stupid mistakes, that were made by protoss side, in every single Terran won game with that strategy. Still this was considered as a time of terran being OP. We had the whining "Protoss can win single games but not championships." We had this from the zerg side too for long. But now, where this is the case for terran, with the representation of terrans in finals during 2014 being the worst ever for a race since HotS release, everything is ok. If you want SC2 being a 2race game, then just admit it. It´s fine if you think so. Because that´s what it is right now. The difference is that I can explain how I got to my number. Yours is just - as you say - random bullshit you have thrown out. Code A+S has 56 spots with this season being distributed as follows: P : T : Z - 24:10:22 Giving those 56 players a way to compete for 32 Code S spots without favoring some (those that were previously Code S) you'd reach something like the numbers I gave. But this is quite pessimistic, given that 8-7-9 players had to make it through a qualifier first and not everybody above them would make it through as well. So an optimistic prognosis should tend more towards this 8-7-9 distribution. Now, assuming that the ones that stayed in Code S or came from Code S should be favored over those coming from the qualifiers, the realistic distribution should be in between 24 : 10 : 22 (6Terrans) and 8 : 7 : 9 (10Terrans). of course it's just a very simple method, still a thousand and one times more accurate than the nothing you present. you assume, that you would have the same ratio coming through a qualifier, when the 24 Code S players dropping down would participate there too. But that´s absolutely ridicoulus, because the quality of Z/P in the player pool of the qualifiers would increase dramatically with those 24 added, while the quality of terrans would remain widely untouched. By simplifying those complex things and making assumptions upon them, you will allways get wrong results. And no, those wrong results are not better than nothing, they are worse. Because assuming something wrong and trying to take consequences out of it is allways worse, than assuming nothing and only take consequences out of the current reality. I already said that this assumption would be too optimistic (and lead to 10Terrans) for exactly the reasons you give as well. Oh, and btw, we just had such a qualifier scenario for the Korean region. With only Zest and soO being seeded for the Global Tournament, the qualified players were 2P-4T-4Z. But if you look at the finalist of each qualifier bracket, you got 5T, 9P, 6Z. For that qualifier specifically, Ps just lost a lot of finals. They actually did quite well overall. yes. I think Terran over and Protoss underperformed in that qualifier, compared to what we should expect. But note how 5/20 (25%) in the bracket finals exactly matches my 8/32 (25%) expectations for how many Terrans we should expect coming from such a qualifier for Code S. It's actually a similar argument for Code A this season: Terrans got a lot of third places. From the 9 Terrans in Code A, there a 3 first places, 0 second places, 5 third places and 1 fourth place. As a weighted average, that makes 2.4444, pretty much the expected 2.5 outcome. They just lost a ton of decider games, some of them just barely. Again, 8/32 wouldn't be perfect still. 4/32 is really worrysome. But Code S seems to be the only place where this is happening like that, and imo math suggests that it - at least to a large degree - has to do with the 80% P>T in Code A from last season. And I really don't see what "patch conclusion for TvZ" we want to draw from flash and fantasy not making it in. Nerf roach warren build time by 5seconds? I hardly think that would change those rushes that flash died to. Buff bunker build time by 5seconds? Is it that what we want, fantasy going through with 2rax regardless whether it is scouted or not? But your expected value of 2.5 is only if you had the top 15-16 of each race playing against each other. For Code A, we had the 2-10 th terrans playing against the 4-20th protoss and zergs. So actually, we should expect the terrans to do better than 2.5. If the balance was supposedly 'fix', this should have been the case, correct?
Yes, but I think the competition at the top is very tight and even the "better" player in a match will often not have more than a 5% better winrate than their "worse" opponent. So even then we shouldn't expect a massive shift that goes beyond something like 2.0.
On April 19 2014 18:16 pure.Wasted wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2014 17:45 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 14:09 vthree wrote:On April 19 2014 06:43 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:38 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 06:26 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 06:08 TeeTS wrote:On April 19 2014 05:12 Big J wrote:On April 19 2014 02:56 Glorfindel! wrote:On April 19 2014 01:59 Big J wrote:
[quote]
Then do it. Don't be a lazy smartass and pull out those charts that include a 31-8 for Protoss from the last Code A season, the root of why we have so few Terrans in Code A/S these days.
But you are probably one of those guys assuming that with perfect balance, a better player will always make it through regardless of how big of a bracket he has to play to qualify. Little heads up on that, if you only have 2 Terrans coming from Code S into Code A and every other Terran has to qualify from a bigass qualifier tournament, then the amount of Terrans making it into Code A will simply be smaller and same goes for the amount of Terrans that make it through into Code S.
The probability to fall out is much higher if flash has to play 10games to qualify, than if he only had to play the 2-3 Code A matches.
Hell, if fantasy and flash made it in the amount of Terrans qualified would be quite good, judging from the level they started from (3-->6). And they really did not deserve those spots, because blundering like they did has nothing to do with balance.
When any race was low, they also didn't magically double or triple from one season to the next again (it's usually around +2). Even in times of power, races often would hardly grow at all. Terran took a huge blow last season, and now crying for each and everything being grossly imbalanced because recovery is not happening or slowly is just a joke. Go and analyze the big imbalance if you can, stop posting random shit about maps that has no backup.
Your deep tournament runs... Zergs have just as many as Terrans. We had 2Zerg and 2Terran finalists to the 10Protoss in the last Premier tournaments. So the whole argument can be made for Zerg as well.
And to your little quote... No clue what it has to do with TvZ. Sigh... You dont see the difference with Zerg having 14 Code S-spots? Hyun just won WCS AM. May I just ask - if there was a new Code S qualifier from scratch, do you believe we would have more than 4 Terrans making it the whole way with the same player pool? Personally I would be suprised if we even reached that. By your arguments and statistic viewing it sounds like you believe it would be 11/11/10 or something like that O.o using a "worst case expectation" prediction method it would roughly be 13:6:13. Using a less pessimistic method, I'd guess we'd reach 8+ Terrans, given current winrates at the highest Korean level. Not perfect, but quite above what we have now. This is a totally random number, thrown out by yourself. I could say "given the current trends of strategy and game flow, we´d reach a number of 1 or 2." Would be the same bullshit. Noone can tell, what would happen, but we have a some numbers, that are actually real. And those number show, the 2 least representations of GSL code S history go both to terran with 3 and 4. These are the numbers we have. The current system makes it easier than ever for a balance shift to affect representation numbers in code S. Without having to sit one entire season in code a only, terrams could have gone straight through, but it didn´t happen. You say some terrans underperformed in code A, maybe. Maybe others overperformed in the qualifiers. Noone knows. You say, Flash and Fantasy made horrible mistakes. During the 1-1-1 era, I could tell you stupid mistakes, that were made by protoss side, in every single Terran won game with that strategy. Still this was considered as a time of terran being OP. We had the whining "Protoss can win single games but not championships." We had this from the zerg side too for long. But now, where this is the case for terran, with the representation of terrans in finals during 2014 being the worst ever for a race since HotS release, everything is ok. If you want SC2 being a 2race game, then just admit it. It´s fine if you think so. Because that´s what it is right now. The difference is that I can explain how I got to my number. Yours is just - as you say - random bullshit you have thrown out. Code A+S has 56 spots with this season being distributed as follows: P : T : Z - 24:10:22 Giving those 56 players a way to compete for 32 Code S spots without favoring some (those that were previously Code S) you'd reach something like the numbers I gave. But this is quite pessimistic, given that 8-7-9 players had to make it through a qualifier first and not everybody above them would make it through as well. So an optimistic prognosis should tend more towards this 8-7-9 distribution. Now, assuming that the ones that stayed in Code S or came from Code S should be favored over those coming from the qualifiers, the realistic distribution should be in between 24 : 10 : 22 (6Terrans) and 8 : 7 : 9 (10Terrans). of course it's just a very simple method, still a thousand and one times more accurate than the nothing you present. you assume, that you would have the same ratio coming through a qualifier, when the 24 Code S players dropping down would participate there too. But that´s absolutely ridicoulus, because the quality of Z/P in the player pool of the qualifiers would increase dramatically with those 24 added, while the quality of terrans would remain widely untouched. By simplifying those complex things and making assumptions upon them, you will allways get wrong results. And no, those wrong results are not better than nothing, they are worse. Because assuming something wrong and trying to take consequences out of it is allways worse, than assuming nothing and only take consequences out of the current reality. I already said that this assumption would be too optimistic (and lead to 10Terrans) for exactly the reasons you give as well. Oh, and btw, we just had such a qualifier scenario for the Korean region. With only Zest and soO being seeded for the Global Tournament, the qualified players were 2P-4T-4Z. But if you look at the finalist of each qualifier bracket, you got 5T, 9P, 6Z. For that qualifier specifically, Ps just lost a lot of finals. They actually did quite well overall. yes. I think Terran over and Protoss underperformed in that qualifier, compared to what we should expect. But note how 5/20 (25%) in the bracket finals exactly matches my 8/32 (25%) expectations for how many Terrans we should expect coming from such a qualifier for Code S. It's actually a similar argument for Code A this season: Terrans got a lot of third places. From the 9 Terrans in Code A, there a 3 first places, 0 second places, 5 third places and 1 fourth place. As a weighted average, that makes 2.4444, pretty much the expected 2.5 outcome. They just lost a ton of decider games, some of them just barely. Again, 8/32 wouldn't be perfect still. 4/32 is really worrysome. But Code S seems to be the only place where this is happening like that, and imo math suggests that it - at least to a large degree - has to do with the 80% P>T in Code A from last season. And I really don't see what "patch conclusion for TvZ" we want to draw from flash and fantasy not making it in. Nerf roach warren build time by 5seconds? I hardly think that would change those rushes that flash died to. Buff bunker build time by 5seconds? Is it that what we want, fantasy going through with 2rax regardless whether it is scouted or not? Why would you think that the only things wrong with the TvZ MU are the precise builds Flash and Fantasy died to? I think by this point most non-Terrans will agree that the WM nerf was completely unnecessary. A lot of non-Terrans understood that even when it went live. Reverting the nerf would be by far the easiest fix Blizzard could ever make. It might also be the one thing needed to push non-Raven based mech from weird 'does it work, doesn't it work?' territory into being truly viable in TvZ.
I put it like that, because the whole discussion suddenly got started up again due to those games.
I think widow mines are fine as they are. I would like to see a small HP nerf on mutas though, they are way too dominant currently in the meta.
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EPT
