On September 21 2014 20:02 Decendos wrote:
also i win more when playing T on my Z main account :D
also i win more when playing T on my Z main account :D
Definitly an evidence of imbalance.
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Faust852
Luxembourg4004 Posts
September 21 2014 11:09 GMT
#21901
On September 21 2014 20:02 Decendos wrote: also i win more when playing T on my Z main account :D Definitly an evidence of imbalance. | ||
SC2Toastie
Netherlands5725 Posts
September 21 2014 11:15 GMT
#21902
Also, Blizzard seems to neglect drops/nydus, so don't get your hopes up ![]() | ||
Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
September 21 2014 11:18 GMT
#21903
![]() Another list period is over, albeit the number of games is still lower than the regular number. Still, there are nearly twice as many games as in 118, so the results should be more representative. In terms of winrates, P and T are pretty even, with P having a marginal advantage. The change from the previous list was 4 points, from 47% to 51%. Z and P are also even, with Z having a marginal advantage.The change from the previous list was 1 point, from 48% to 49%. And T and Z are better than before, but with T having an advantage. The change from the previous list was 2 points, from 56% to 54%. In terms of population numbers, there were once again many more ZvZs than PvPs or TvTs. With 2.4x more ZvZ than TvT and 1.7x more ZvZ than PvP. The number of Z games might be explained by the fact that Z is doing better against P, and there being more P than T in competitions. Overall, no generalizations can really be made from this data, but we can probably soon look at the overall trend once there are more games collected. On September 04 2014 23:37 Ghanburighan wrote: Aligulac list 118. ![]() Here's the second list after the patch. Let's first look at winrates. P has clawed back a bit against T (47% versus the previous 45%). P has also lost the same amount of percentage points against Z (47% versus the previous 49%). T significantly improved its result versus Z (56% versus the previous 50%). It should also be noticed (according to preliminary results posted in the thread) that in the beginning of the period the winrates were further away from 50%, while later games allowed both P and Z to make up several percentage points. It has to be noted, though, that there were only ~1/3 of the games that you usually see in an Aligulac list due to the holidays. So all winrates need to be taken with an even greater bit of salt than usually. (With these low numbers a single 4-0 results in a full percentage point swing). As for population numbers, they continue to even out. TvTs make up 80% of PvPs while previously they made up 68%. Albeit TvTs make up 46% of ZvZs while last time they made up 58% of ZvZs. And PvPs make up 56% of ZvZs while they previously made up 85% of ZvZs. So ZvZ numbers are on the rise again (Z improved against P both in terms of winrate and population) but the numbers are still in the same ballpark as last time, rather than showing differences of multiple times as before the patch. Show nested quote + On August 21 2014 20:32 Ghanburighan wrote: Aligulac list 117. ![]() This time we have interesting results. The patch went through on the 25th of July, so both 116 and 117 are pertinent for our analysis. The first thing to notice, PvT has been consistently at ~45% since the patch. (Down from 48%, 52%, 52%, 50%, 46% in previous lists). TvZ has been hovering around 50%, which has roughly been the norm over all quoted lists (it sometimes dips to ~46% for short periods). PvZ has climbed back to ~50%, from a short 47% dip. Population numbers are becoming more even. TvTs make up 58% of the ZvZs, and PvPs 85% of ZvZs. TvTs also make up 68% of TvTs. This is a marked improvement from the time when there were for example 4x or 5x more ZvZs than TvTs (and smaller advantages for PvPs, still measured as nx). Population wise, there's also a non-significant improvement for P compared to Z. The conclusion from the first month after the balance change appears to be that T is doing better, but mostly with respect to games against P. Albeit, you could make the argument that as there are more terrans in tournaments, but the winrates against Z are equal, terrans are actually doing better, it's merely weaker terrans that are losing more. What's clearly the case is that we can no longer count how many times more ZvZs and PvPs there are than TvTs. Anyone who actually watched the games should comment further. On August 08 2014 05:03 Ghanburighan wrote: Aligulac list 116. ![]() Regarding winrates, T had an edge against P, and a very small edge against T. PvZ is even. Regarding populations, there were only about twice as many PvPs as TvTs and 2.5x ZvZs as TvTs, so there's improvement. On July 24 2014 15:32 Ghanburighan wrote: While we're looking at winrates, here's another Aligulac list: ![]() Just looking at winrates, PvT is rather even, and so is PvZ but TvZ has gone down to the dumps again. On the other hand, the population numbers are the worst ever for Terran. It looks like T has a constant of around 100 games every period, but with the added number of games (last period has 1799 games, this one 3866), only Z and P seem to have added more mirrors. So there are 4.8x as many ZvZ as TvT, and 3.8x as many PvP as TvT. This also means that P has once again caught up with Z populations, last period it was 1.3 ZvZ for every 1 PvP, now it's 1.2. On July 10 2014 20:15 Ghanburighan wrote: Here's the latest Aligulac list (114) with pretty new formatting. ![]() With regard to P, nothing seems to have changed. Just like the first half of June, P>T by a slight margin, P and Z are roughly even, and there are roughly the same number of PvP MU's in tournaments. Z did worse in this period, while it was at >55% against T last time, it's now even in winrates. More importantly, looking at populations, while there were 5x more ZvZ than TvT, and 2x more ZvZ than PvP, then now there are only roughly 3x more ZvZ than TvT, and a just over a fourth more ZvZ than PvPs. This suggests that Z is doing worse, and it's mainly doing worse against T (note that worse doesn't imply that they're doing bad, this is a comparison with the previous period). Looking more closely at the population numbers, there appear to have been fewer games, the total for 114 is 1835 and for 113 it was 2379. So for the previous 113 list Z MUs made up 72% of all MUs. P MUs made up 55% (note that the overlap is due to the fact that P plays Z...). T MUs made up 36% of all MUs. In this list, 114, Z MUs made up 65% of all MUs. P MUs made up 57%. T MUs made up 42% of all MUs. So Z is down 7%, P is up 2% and T is up 6%. (with rounding) The previous lists can be found below. On June 29 2014 05:42 Ghanburighan wrote: Sorry for the delay, here's Aligulac 113.. The previous list(s) can be found at the end of this post. ![]() Looking at the winrates, P has extended its advantage over T, P has also gained some ground back against Z, yet TvZ has strongly turned in Z favour once gain (it's as bad as it was before the hellbat patch in April). Population numbers are also worse. Previously there were 4x more ZvZ games than TvT games, now there are more than 5x. PvP's have not changed in number, so it's mostly just less terrans and more zergs getting further that's creating the problem. All in all, balance-wise this was a very depressing period. On June 12 2014 15:32 Ghanburighan wrote: Time to post the latest Aligulac list. The previous list can be found at the end of this post. ![]() Regarding winrates, PvT has fluctuated back from T having a slight advantage to P having a minuscule advantage. In PvZ, P has also improved although it hasn't caught up with Z. On the other hand, T has improved in the TvZ MU (110 had 45%, 111 had 47%) and its even now. In terms of populations measured in numbers of mirror MUs, there's virtually no change compared to the last list, the proportions are very close. This means that there is no repopulation of terrans according to these numbers and there are 4 times fewer TvTs than ZvZs. As T MUs have even winrates, there cannot really be a repopulation with these numbers. Furthermore, a word of caution, I'd say that this was one of the best periods for Terran in a long while, Taeja won Hsc 9 (where Z had a comparatively weaker list of players), Maru is tearing up Code S, and Innovation is kicking as in teamleagues and the Dragon cup. I don't think they contributed overly much to the final winrates (their games are still a small fraction of all the games), but taken together they did contribute significantly. If they don't keep their winning ways going, winrates can plunge below 50% again. And, their wins aren't helping repopulate in any way. On May 29 2014 02:45 Ghanburighan wrote: Uploading the latest Aligulac list. ![]() Unfortunately there was a TvZ patch in the middle of the period, so those numbers could be anything now. But it looks like P is doing worse against Z in terms of winrate. But the population ratios haven't changed compared to the last list, though. It's still roughly 1/4 TvT, 2/4 PvP and 1/1 ZvZ. | ||
mCon.Hephaistas
Netherlands891 Posts
September 21 2014 11:18 GMT
#21904
On September 21 2014 20:15 SC2Toastie wrote: Just coming in here to say that this 'Zerg underperforming' has nothing to do with balance but is a logical occurance as a result of buffs to the Terran race. Also, Blizzard seems to neglect drops/nydus, so don't get your hopes up ![]() Right.. TvZ was fairly balanced before the last patch. Sure the mass muta would sometimes still a problem so that thor buff was fine in my opinion. But how can they justify that mine buff? They just did that cuz every terran and their mother was whining. | ||
ZenithM
France15952 Posts
September 21 2014 11:22 GMT
#21905
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Decendos
Germany1338 Posts
September 21 2014 11:23 GMT
#21906
On September 21 2014 20:15 SC2Toastie wrote: Just coming in here to say that this 'Zerg underperforming' has nothing to do with balance but is a logical occurance as a result of buffs to the Terran race. Also, Blizzard seems to neglect drops/nydus, so don't get your hopes up ![]() well with underperforming i didnt mean less good than prepatch (which is obv if T gets 2 buffs) but underperforming in terms of balance. and like i said its too early to tell if TvZ is broken but if the trend continues of TvZ being around 55% winrate for T then there can be buffs to balance it out and i really would love to see buffs to underused and creative strats like nydus, drops or burrow movement. but as you said blizz doesnt seem to like it so if they patch they will probably do something to make ling bane muta stronger...yay... | ||
Big J
Austria16289 Posts
September 21 2014 11:27 GMT
#21907
On September 21 2014 20:22 ZenithM wrote: Terran is at its rightful place. Its role is to be either monstrously dominant, or terrifyingly bad. Let's just hope Terran players earn some money to prevent them to face retirement when things go awry again. I wonder if this is true and assuming it is, whether this stems from blizzard always trying to balance Terran around "giving them enough aggression to keep the other races low". Which is just such a thin line to walk, that you are either in the scenario that everybody can do it and you need extraordinary P/Z players to hold against Terrans standard play or you need extraordinary T players to make standard play work against Protoss and Zerg. | ||
SC2Toastie
Netherlands5725 Posts
September 21 2014 11:40 GMT
#21908
On September 21 2014 20:18 mCon.Hephaistas wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2014 20:15 SC2Toastie wrote: Just coming in here to say that this 'Zerg underperforming' has nothing to do with balance but is a logical occurance as a result of buffs to the Terran race. Also, Blizzard seems to neglect drops/nydus, so don't get your hopes up ![]() Right.. TvZ was fairly balanced before the last patch. Sure the mass muta would sometimes still a problem so that thor buff was fine in my opinion. But how can they justify that mine buff? They just did that cuz every terran and their mother was whining. TvZ was only balanced in winrates if you ignore a ton of other important statistics that come with that. Terran was in a shit place. Is Terran slightly to strong now? I don't know, maybe. We just have to give Zergs the time to either reinvent Mutalisk control (Thor/Mine really hampers the clumps) or design new transitions (Swarm Hosts). | ||
Faust852
Luxembourg4004 Posts
September 21 2014 11:41 GMT
#21909
On September 21 2014 20:18 mCon.Hephaistas wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2014 20:15 SC2Toastie wrote: Just coming in here to say that this 'Zerg underperforming' has nothing to do with balance but is a logical occurance as a result of buffs to the Terran race. Also, Blizzard seems to neglect drops/nydus, so don't get your hopes up ![]() Right.. TvZ was fairly balanced before the last patch. Sure the mass muta would sometimes still a problem so that thor buff was fine in my opinion. But how can they justify that mine buff? They just did that cuz every terran and their mother was whining. Yeah, and on what bases are you saying that terran is dominant right now ? | ||
Thieving Magpie
United States6752 Posts
September 21 2014 12:05 GMT
#21910
On September 21 2014 20:41 Faust852 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2014 20:18 mCon.Hephaistas wrote: On September 21 2014 20:15 SC2Toastie wrote: Just coming in here to say that this 'Zerg underperforming' has nothing to do with balance but is a logical occurance as a result of buffs to the Terran race. Also, Blizzard seems to neglect drops/nydus, so don't get your hopes up ![]() Right.. TvZ was fairly balanced before the last patch. Sure the mass muta would sometimes still a problem so that thor buff was fine in my opinion. But how can they justify that mine buff? They just did that cuz every terran and their mother was whining. Yeah, and on what bases are you saying that terran is dominant right now ? The #scarlettwasrobbed base. | ||
Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
September 21 2014 12:17 GMT
#21911
On September 21 2014 21:05 Thieving Magpie wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2014 20:41 Faust852 wrote: On September 21 2014 20:18 mCon.Hephaistas wrote: On September 21 2014 20:15 SC2Toastie wrote: Just coming in here to say that this 'Zerg underperforming' has nothing to do with balance but is a logical occurance as a result of buffs to the Terran race. Also, Blizzard seems to neglect drops/nydus, so don't get your hopes up ![]() Right.. TvZ was fairly balanced before the last patch. Sure the mass muta would sometimes still a problem so that thor buff was fine in my opinion. But how can they justify that mine buff? They just did that cuz every terran and their mother was whining. Yeah, and on what bases are you saying that terran is dominant right now ? The #scarlettwasrobbed base. What happened? I just saw the results, Scarlett lost to Cure and Polt 2-1, which I thought was a better than expected result (at least against Cure). What were the games like? | ||
TheDwf
France19747 Posts
September 21 2014 12:20 GMT
#21912
We're not in a very active period so there are less games than in the previous months, but for instance in this: http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_MSI_Beat_IT/South_Korean_Qualifier We had: 14 TvT, 21 ZvZ 49-46 TvZ | ||
MstrJinbo
United States1251 Posts
September 21 2014 12:24 GMT
#21913
On September 21 2014 21:17 Ghanburighan wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2014 21:05 Thieving Magpie wrote: On September 21 2014 20:41 Faust852 wrote: On September 21 2014 20:18 mCon.Hephaistas wrote: On September 21 2014 20:15 SC2Toastie wrote: Just coming in here to say that this 'Zerg underperforming' has nothing to do with balance but is a logical occurance as a result of buffs to the Terran race. Also, Blizzard seems to neglect drops/nydus, so don't get your hopes up ![]() Right.. TvZ was fairly balanced before the last patch. Sure the mass muta would sometimes still a problem so that thor buff was fine in my opinion. But how can they justify that mine buff? They just did that cuz every terran and their mother was whining. Yeah, and on what bases are you saying that terran is dominant right now ? The #scarlettwasrobbed base. What happened? I just saw the results, Scarlett lost to Cure and Polt 2-1, which I thought was a better than expected result (at least against Cure). What were the games like? Cure channeled his inner bomber in game two going a fairly greed 3CC on a game and scarlett did a roach ling allin. Game 1 and 3 were hellbat openings into 3 CC. Scarlett did a two base muta, held off the hellbats, was in a good spot but couldn't hold on after cure's 3rd kicked in and he started continuously rallying forces to her fourth. Scarlett fought admirably but had too many costly engagements to hold. | ||
Big J
Austria16289 Posts
September 21 2014 12:40 GMT
#21914
On September 21 2014 21:20 TheDwf wrote: As usual some people overreact based on the flavor of the week series, ignorant of where the long-term flow is heading (hint: it's not towards Terran...). At Korean level I don't witness at all the apocalypse some people describe here. We're not in a very active period so there are less games than in the previous months, but for instance in this: http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_MSI_Beat_IT/South_Korean_Qualifier We had: 14 TvT, 21 ZvZ 49-46 TvZ Well, I think what actually makes people go crazy about Terran is that after half a year of Protoss dominance, Terran might still just become the most successful race 2014. Again. Which would mean that Terran has won the most Premier tournaments in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014 (with 13 Premier wins in 2012, compared to the 16 that "patchzergs" took), while their players continuously annoy every other Starcraft player by claiming that they go through one dark age after another. | ||
Grumbels
Netherlands7028 Posts
September 21 2014 13:00 GMT
#21915
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
September 21 2014 13:03 GMT
#21916
On September 21 2014 22:00 Grumbels wrote: Starcraft 2 will never be balanced. Why not let terran get a few wins before another series of patches to buff zerg or whatever? This way at least there are some terran pro players that can prolong their careers. Not sure if sarcasm or not?! | ||
ZenithM
France15952 Posts
September 21 2014 13:16 GMT
#21917
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Grumbels
Netherlands7028 Posts
September 21 2014 13:16 GMT
#21918
On September 21 2014 22:03 The_Red_Viper wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2014 22:00 Grumbels wrote: Starcraft 2 will never be balanced. Why not let terran get a few wins before another series of patches to buff zerg or whatever? This way at least there are some terran pro players that can prolong their careers. Not sure if sarcasm or not?! Not really. As spectators we care about integrity of the competitive scene, i.e. making sure that race is not a factor in determining the winner of a tournament. However, that integrity is undermined when all sorts of point systems and qualifiers would keep a previously more powerful race entrenched in a better position. And players whose professional careers suffered from unfair distribution of prize money and such won't care that much about competitive integrity either, they might desire reparations, for instance in the form of a period of opposite imbalance. And Starcraft 2 being what it is, one race will always be a bit stronger or weaker than the other races. It's obviously possible for Blizzard to approach balance always from the direction that complements these previous concerns. So when terran has been weak for a long time, you try to approach a balanced game from the starting point of terran being too strong, and then you make small adjustments towards the middle. | ||
Big J
Austria16289 Posts
September 21 2014 13:49 GMT
#21919
On September 21 2014 22:16 Grumbels wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2014 22:03 The_Red_Viper wrote: On September 21 2014 22:00 Grumbels wrote: Starcraft 2 will never be balanced. Why not let terran get a few wins before another series of patches to buff zerg or whatever? This way at least there are some terran pro players that can prolong their careers. Not sure if sarcasm or not?! Not really. As spectators we care about integrity of the competitive scene, i.e. making sure that race is not a factor in determining the winner of a tournament. However, that integrity is undermined when all sorts of point systems and qualifiers would keep a previously more powerful race entrenched in a better position. And players whose professional careers suffered from unfair distribution of prize money and such won't care that much about competitive integrity either, they might desire reparations, for instance in the form of a period of opposite imbalance. And Starcraft 2 being what it is, one race will always be a bit stronger or weaker than the other races. It's obviously possible for Blizzard to approach balance always from the direction that complements these previous concerns. So when terran has been weak for a long time, you try to approach a balanced game from the starting point of terran being too strong, and then you make small adjustments towards the middle. PvZ has been in a pretty good spot for a long time now. | ||
RaFox17
Finland4581 Posts
September 21 2014 14:13 GMT
#21920
On September 21 2014 21:40 Big J wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2014 21:20 TheDwf wrote: As usual some people overreact based on the flavor of the week series, ignorant of where the long-term flow is heading (hint: it's not towards Terran...). At Korean level I don't witness at all the apocalypse some people describe here. We're not in a very active period so there are less games than in the previous months, but for instance in this: http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_MSI_Beat_IT/South_Korean_Qualifier We had: 14 TvT, 21 ZvZ 49-46 TvZ Well, I think what actually makes people go crazy about Terran is that after half a year of Protoss dominance, Terran might still just become the most successful race 2014. Again. Which would mean that Terran has won the most Premier tournaments in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014 (with 13 Premier wins in 2012, compared to the 16 that "patchzergs" took), while their players continuously annoy every other Starcraft player by claiming that they go through one dark age after another. Kinda have agree with Big J in that when you look how many major tournaments zerg has won and the whine about OP zerg one would have thought zerg was winning left and right but it´s mainly P and T players that have won big tournaments. You can argue about the reasons for that but thats how things are. | ||
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