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Chill: This thread is about how the perception of balance is not in-line with hard statistics. If you don't have a comment about that fact, DO NOT post in this thread. |
While getting myself hyped for MLG Dallas starting tonight, I was starting to think about who could take it and it really got me to thinking, which Protoss will be the one to rise to the championship? I’m someone who if I have a small amount of time, and I’m not completely caught up on the GSL, I’ll watch a set before I’ll hit the ladder myself, I’m a Starcraft 2 spectator. And as excited as I am for the tournament season to begin with MLG and NASL soon there is one thing that really bothers me. On state of the game this week while talking about Idra, Incontrol said that he was sort of defeated by the match up, and that’s when I realized, as a spectator, I am too.
After watching this new style of Protoss vs. Zerg where Zerg has a huge base lead and creep literally covering half the map, and a 200/200 rolls what looks like on your screen as a massive lead it gets a little disheartening. Weather there is imbalance or not isn’t really the issue, it’s the mindset that the odds are in the favor of one side that makes the matches harder to spectate, now when I see a Zerg in the lead, like in Morrow vs. San I just remind myself over and over to hold judgment until the death ball moves out.
Using GCPL, TSL3(round 1), Assembly and GSL March code S, I went through Liquipedia (except for TLO games in which I had to go though the vods, if you though you were tired of him being random…) I used games instead of series’ in order to get more data and I found that PvZ had Protoss winning at a 56% clip, not nearly the 80% mentality that had taken over my mind, in fact it turns out assembly was hilariously Protoss dominated, and ignoring those results would give you a 52% Protoss win percentage. These aren’t exactly scrub tournaments, but seeing interview after interview with Zergs, Terrans and even Protoss saying “I don’t want to play any Protoss it’s my worst match up” it had begun to suck me in.
The funny thing is when I started my research for this post my intention was to express my disgust with what the current balance is doing for eSports as a viewer. But in light of my findings (Believe it or not PvT is statistically more imbalanced) none of which are recorded after the fungal/amulet patch, I have hope, is it 6% that remains to be seen. On the very same state of the game Incontrol hinted that with the patch so close to MLG a lot of international Zerg players have kept their hands close to their vest, and that we may see a new brand of ZvP at MLG. So instead of anger I bring hope, and I hope you all enjoy MLG this weekend, I’m looking forward to it now more than ever.
I have included the full statistical results in the spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +
For these statistics I simply threw out all mirrors and did a tally. for Assembly I actually threw out all random games (including TLO) because I didn't want to sift through the glhf garbage in the LR thread, but for GCPL all TLO matches were confirmed for race via LR or VOD. Lastly I'd like to thank whoever did the Liquipedia updates for these tournaments, without you I couldn't have finished before MLG started which is important to my final product.
GCPL
regular season Playoffs Total
TvZ 14-10 6-8 20-18
TvP 16-18 6-6 22-24
ZvP 10-4 6-9 16-13
TSL3
TvZ 7-6
TvP 5-7
ZvP 4-6
Assembly
Pool Play W.Bracket Total
TvZ 25-17 2-5 27-22
TvP 17-28 8-14 25-42
ZvP 4-18 11-7 15-25
GSL March(code S only)
TvZ 11-11
TvP 8-18
ZvP 9-13
Grand Totals
TvZ 65-57(53% Terran)
TvP 60-91 (60% Protoss)
ZvP 44-57 (56% Protoss)
final note: I included winners bracket/playoff stats because it gives you a little more of a crem de la crem numbers, but I included everything in the totals because I felt it would be manipulating to not include everything I took the time to tally.
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This topic again!! This will just ensue flaming , you are clearly stating that protoss is imbalance and QQing about Zergs.
If you wanna make topics like this, post it on blizzard's forums.
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Not threadworthy.
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Your statistics are pretty much bullshit because you took only statistics since last 1 month.
If you actually took the statistics since release, instead of just last month the trend would be overall better. In fact during release, terran was unbeatable by Protoss with a variety of play including 3 rax SCV all ins, Raven/Banshee all in, Thor all in and even BC all ins. Even ZvP was Z favored due to the prevalent ling-muta playstyle that was the preferred during that time. Protoss were nearly non-existent in the first two seasons of GSL past the round of 16
After that it has been nothing but protoss nerfs non-stop (apart from phoenix build time reduction and observer cost reduction). But still protoss has gone from losing most of the time to winning a lot more. A lot of it has to do with the maps becoming large, allowing protoss to defend all ins more reliably through scouting, and the movement of the general meta-game away from 1 base games to longer macro games.
At this current point of time, though it might seem that protoss has a slight advantage, I feel that its just a matter of time before someone finds a reliable way to exploit protoss weaknesses.
TL:DR; Stop crying imbalance within such a short span of time.
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As a spectator every match i see where 12+ forcefields flat out win the game I get disheartened. It's gotten so bad I've poisoned myself against my own race and am strongly considering a race switch. The only thing stopping me is the thought I'll be on the receiving end of the shenanigans. woe is me
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Protoss definitely benefits more from a death ball and is extremely boring to watch colossus kill everything with their massive splash damage but the way their race is designed relies on the force field colossus compositions and it is unfortunate. I don't know what else they could do to protoss in starcraft 2 with the race as Force fields are extremely strong but without them Protoss is horrible and almost unable to hold off any kind of pressure early on, without colossus protoss loses to Hydra to easily so it's a slippery slope that's for sure. I would personally like to see the colossus removed from heart of the swarm if possible and replaced with a more exciting unit, as seeing colossus death balls late game is not as exciting as seeing reaver drops or reaver play in general most would agree.
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Why the hate guys? The OP isn't whining, he is saying there is little imbalance and as of the recent patches maybe none at all, and i think he has good reason to take only the recent games, because he wants to know how the recent games have been going, with all the patches and metagame (for lack of a better word) shifts since release and beta what use would there be in looking at all the data, as he wants to know how MLG will play out.
@PileDriver, you put a TL:DR at the end of your post, but apparently you didn't read his.
Not cool.
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Poorly disguised imba thread. It doesn't help dressing your post up by saying 'I did research' and 'I have hope'.
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If you remove all the games where:
1. One player makes a huuge blunder.
2. One player vastly outskills another player.
How many are you left with? Do you realize you are including oGsMC vs Ciara in your analysis?
Personally I think some of the matchups are somewhat skewed, but this analysis does nothing to either prove or disprove it.
To the guy over suggesting to include all games since release or something: LOL.
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Surili's right, chill guys. I myself have noticed a slight protoss dominance, but it's true that it's only a matter of time before t's discover tank helion viking :D
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On April 01 2011 22:58 Piledriver wrote:
TL:DR; Stop crying imbalance within such a short span of time.
If you had properly read the OP before going onto such a tangential rant this TL:DR would be a lot less glaringly wrong than it is.
OT: it's so refreshing seeing someone actually try to apply an objective filter their own personal bias; following arguments on the internet has made me so sick of anecdotal "evidence".
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Every game i see one of the following things happen Iwonder why i watch and sometimes play this shit:
Protoss-Deathball steamrolling over a Z like the Z's army just evaporates barely putting a dent into the Ball... And basically every game a Protoss gets about 4 Colossi... SO DAMN BORING.
Forcefield instawin.
Actually, ZvP is just boring to watch and looks/is just stupid.
ZvT and PvZ + the Mirrors (except probably PvP) are fun to watch.
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lol, its funny how you put it. Myself friends and I were also wondering 'Which protoss will win mlg'. Funny to see its not just us! Anyway the patch has come and in ZvP ive tried infestors, but ill just say its not as good as people make it out to be. its not a 260% dps upgrade as some people have tried to sloppily calculate it.
As for me, I've started going heavy muta ling with mass spines to ward off 4-6 gates. Im sure the game itself will change to a point where people try to discourage protoss to go sentry play; that or blizzard will nerf protoss. All in all, the only thing we can do is continue playing and trying to win i guess ^^
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you sure did spent a lot of time on this, however it didn't have enough data to make argument of imbalance.
Blizzard take data from millions of game from ladder, I know the result of progamer will be more convince. I am sure Blizzard already have someone looking in to it.
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I actually think you started with a great point, but then ended more on a imba complaint.
So I'll just address the first part.
Yes, when I watch ZvP, I'm always apprehensive for the Zerg even with a 50 food lead because it seems they can never win lategame, and I'm hoping the new fungal can fix that.
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get 2-3 bases and defend until you are 200 supply. make colossus and void rays. attack move. win.
this is how fun protoss is
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On April 01 2011 22:58 Piledriver wrote:
Your statistics are pretty much bullshit because you took only statistics since last 1 month.
Maybe he is comparing the races after recent patches?
//tx
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/Facepalm not again.....
P.S and yes i did read the whole thing
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The OP feels really weird. It starts out like a balance whine, then just as you're getting ready to whip out the statistics to back your balance complaints, you turn around and say "Gee, it's not nearly as bad as I thought". I fail to see the point of the OP or the thread...?
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EPT
