[GSL] Blizzard Cup Group A - Page 4

On December 14 2012 23:37 TheBB wrote:
Blizzard Cup Group A

PartinG
      Expected score: 3.01-0.99 (sets: 6.57-3.09)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 92.78%
      Most likely place: 1st (55.04%)

Leenock
      Expected score: 2.41-1.59 (sets: 5.57-4.19)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 80.21%
      Most likely place: 2nd (34.43%)

HerO
      Expected score: 2.13-1.87 (sets: 5.15-4.66)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 70.25%
      Most likely place: 3rd (28.85%)

DongRaeGu
      Expected score: 1.26-2.74 (sets: 3.61-6.15)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 30.74%
      Most likely place: 5th (41.34%)

Mvp
      Expected score: 1.19-2.81 (sets: 3.43-6.23)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 26.02%
      Most likely place: 5th (40.75%)

details, data source, code

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
           Mvp:   40.75%   33.23%   16.13%    7.39%    2.51%
     DongRaeGu:   41.34%   27.92%   18.26%    9.18%    3.30%
          HerO:    9.86%   19.89%   28.85%   23.92%   17.48%
       Leenock:    6.33%   13.46%   24.10%   34.43%   21.68%
       PartinG:    1.72%    5.50%   12.67%   25.08%   55.04%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
           Mvp:   19.67%   47.71%   26.91%    5.37%    0.34%
     DongRaeGu:   19.48%   43.32%   29.23%    7.39%    0.58%
          HerO:    2.31%   22.36%   41.52%   27.73%    6.08%
       Leenock:    1.52%   12.88%   37.36%   39.84%    8.41%
       PartinG:    0.23%    3.67%   20.80%   45.42%   29.88%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
           Mvp:    2.45%    6.98%    6.89%    8.71%   16.97%   16.98%   10.29%   10.38%    9.58%    4.94%    2.46%    1.92%    0.97%    0.27%    0.13%    0.07%    0.01%
     DongRaeGu:    2.22%    6.48%    7.03%    8.10%   14.89%   15.61%   10.42%   10.83%   10.54%    5.79%    3.17%    2.73%    1.44%    0.42%    0.21%    0.12%    0.02%
          HerO:    0.14%    0.58%    0.89%    1.62%    5.31%    8.49%    7.94%   10.91%   15.87%   12.69%    9.12%   10.59%    8.00%    3.37%    2.30%    1.74%    0.43%
       Leenock:    0.07%    0.34%    0.60%    1.04%    2.90%    4.86%    5.20%    8.94%   14.16%   12.40%   11.04%   15.23%   11.93%    4.83%    3.12%    2.57%    0.76%
       PartinG:    0.01%    0.04%    0.08%    0.19%    0.62%    1.26%    1.79%    3.50%    7.24%    8.27%    9.02%   15.60%   16.89%   10.25%   10.02%   10.95%    4.28%