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On December 18 2012 00:37 MoMaN- wrote:hi everyone ! hmm i can say something ! Some people are wrong : i didnt stop sc2, i'm playing a lot ! but yes perhaps i'm bad ;D Thx for this invitation Take ♥ I'm really happy to be here ! Best tournament 4 ever ♥ ! Sorry for take one spot  I will do my best ! Bad thing no zerg in my group !!! (my best match up very far) I hope you will enjoy it ! Because I WILL ♥.♥
I will be cheering for you MoMaN glad to see you back at HSC. Show MC who's Boss at Poker once more! :D
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On December 18 2012 00:37 MoMaN- wrote:hi everyone ! hmm i can say something ! Some people are wrong : i didnt stop sc2, i'm playing a lot ! but yes perhaps i'm bad ;D Thx for this invitation Take ♥ I'm really happy to be here ! Best tournament 4 ever ♥ ! Sorry for take one spot I will do my best ! Bad thing no zerg in my group !!! (my best match up very far) I hope you will enjoy it ! Because I WILL ♥.♥
Looking forward to meet you in Krefeld. For me you are one of the most entertaining players =)
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On December 17 2012 19:35 Aeromi wrote:Is it BO3 during the groupstage ? 
I think they will do da GSL-System.
xlord mentioned it at stream.
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Anybody know who plays who in the first match? It being GSL format, it would be nice to see the initial match-ups!
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On December 18 2012 01:04 TheBB wrote:Biggest group favourites: TLO (!), Stephano, Grubby and Symbol. Group A Stephano: 98.11% Socke: 51.28% Feast: 26.54% GoOdy: 24.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Stephano: 0.60% 1.29% 14.45% 83.66%
GoOdy: 49.09% 26.84% 20.91% 3.16%
Feast: 32.26% 41.20% 22.81% 3.73%
Socke: 18.04% 30.68% 41.83% 9.45%
Probability of each pair advancing
Stephan GoOdy Feast Socke
Stephano: 20.30% 22.18% 41.18%
GoOdy: 2.55% 0.17% 0.45%
Feast: 3.31% 0.22% 0.20%
Socke: 8.60% 0.39% 0.46% TLO: 98.61% ClouD: 43.00% Mana: 32.33% ToD: 26.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
TLO: 0.49% 0.90% 12.07% 86.54%
Mana: 37.92% 29.75% 28.29% 4.04%
ToD: 39.16% 34.77% 21.97% 4.10%
ClouD: 22.43% 34.58% 37.68% 5.32%
Probability of each pair advancing
TLO Mana ToD ClouD
TLO: 27.70% 21.57% 37.28%
Mana: 3.50% 0.30% 0.24%
ToD: 3.76% 0.18% 0.16%
ClouD: 4.81% 0.41% 0.10% HasuObs: 88.50% BabyKnight: 74.01% Fuzer: 31.66% Ret: 5.83% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Ret: 74.22% 19.95% 3.32% 2.51%
HasuObs: 3.59% 7.91% 38.92% 49.58%
Fuzer: 13.20% 55.14% 24.16% 7.50%
BabyKnight: 8.99% 17.00% 33.60% 40.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
Ret HasuObs Fuzer BabyKni
Ret: 0.90% 0.19% 1.41%
HasuObs: 1.21% 19.52% 28.86%
Fuzer: 0.88% 3.28% 3.34%
BabyKnight: 1.23% 34.73% 4.45% Snute: 79.83% MC: 69.09% Tarrantius: 36.60% Naama: 14.49% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Snute: 7.74% 12.43% 30.68% 49.14%
Naama: 54.70% 30.81% 9.11% 5.38%
MC: 9.56% 21.35% 37.79% 31.30%
Tarrantius: 27.99% 35.41% 22.42% 14.18%
Probability of each pair advancing
Snute Naama MC Tarrant
Snute: 2.81% 31.18% 15.15%
Naama: 2.25% 1.81% 1.32%
MC: 20.42% 4.93% 5.94%
Tarrantius: 8.01% 1.36% 4.80% Bly: 78.53% XlorD: 74.75% MarineKing: 37.47% WhiteRa: 9.25% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
XlorD: 9.49% 15.77% 32.58% 42.17%
MarineKing: 16.62% 45.92% 25.59% 11.87%
Bly: 6.36% 15.11% 36.54% 42.00%
WhiteRa: 67.54% 23.21% 5.29% 3.96%
Probability of each pair advancing
XlorD MarineK Bly WhiteRa
XlorD: 9.96% 30.04% 2.18%
MarineKing: 5.12% 5.35% 1.40%
Bly: 25.16% 15.12% 1.71%
WhiteRa: 2.29% 0.52% 1.15% Grubby: 96.19% HeRoMaRinE: 50.09% BlinG: 46.94% DIMAGA: 6.78% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
DIMAGA: 67.90% 25.32% 4.63% 2.15%
Grubby: 1.28% 2.53% 22.08% 74.11%
HeRoMaRinE: 21.73% 28.18% 32.20% 17.89%
BlinG: 9.08% 43.97% 41.09% 5.86%
Probability of each pair advancing
DIMAGA Grubby HeRoMaR BlinG
DIMAGA: 1.38% 0.65% 0.12%
Grubby: 3.70% 30.57% 39.83%
HeRoMaRinE: 0.27% 16.48% 1.13%
BlinG: 0.65% 4.23% 0.98% MMA: 87.47% BratOK: 85.84% monchi: 21.20% MoMaN: 5.50% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
MoMaN: 70.49% 24.01% 3.88% 1.62%
BratOK: 3.89% 10.28% 39.76% 46.08%
MMA: 2.77% 9.76% 40.58% 46.89%
monchi: 22.85% 55.95% 15.78% 5.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
MoMaN BratOK MMA monchi
MoMaN: 0.63% 0.85% 0.14%
BratOK: 0.77% 37.18% 8.13%
MMA: 2.80% 36.58% 7.51%
monchi: 0.32% 2.55% 2.55% Symbol: 92.28% Kas: 65.25% MajOr: 23.78% NightEnD: 18.68% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Symbol: 2.46% 5.26% 29.44% 62.84%
Kas: 16.05% 18.70% 40.58% 24.67%
NightEnD: 41.20% 40.12% 13.44% 5.25%
MajOr: 40.29% 35.93% 16.54% 7.24%
Probability of each pair advancing
Symbol Kas NightEn MajOr
Symbol: 36.72% 11.39% 14.73%
Kas: 21.03% 1.96% 1.68%
NightEnD: 3.62% 1.50% 0.13%
MajOr: 4.80% 2.36% 0.08%
did you pull these numbers out of your ass?
i dont even know where to start
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I'm going out on a limb and pick a zerg to win this tourney--starts with an "S".
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On December 18 2012 03:23 MosART wrote:
I'm going out on a limb and pick a zerg to win this tourney--starts with an "S".
so that would be either Symbol or Stephano? seems like a reasonable pick 
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why no nerchio? he'd rip most of these guys to pieces. can't wait though, and maybe there was some scheduling problems.
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On December 18 2012 03:18 furo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 01:04 TheBB wrote:Biggest group favourites: TLO (!), Stephano, Grubby and Symbol. Group A Stephano: 98.11% Socke: 51.28% Feast: 26.54% GoOdy: 24.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Stephano: 0.60% 1.29% 14.45% 83.66%
GoOdy: 49.09% 26.84% 20.91% 3.16%
Feast: 32.26% 41.20% 22.81% 3.73%
Socke: 18.04% 30.68% 41.83% 9.45%
Probability of each pair advancing
Stephan GoOdy Feast Socke
Stephano: 20.30% 22.18% 41.18%
GoOdy: 2.55% 0.17% 0.45%
Feast: 3.31% 0.22% 0.20%
Socke: 8.60% 0.39% 0.46% TLO: 98.61% ClouD: 43.00% Mana: 32.33% ToD: 26.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
TLO: 0.49% 0.90% 12.07% 86.54%
Mana: 37.92% 29.75% 28.29% 4.04%
ToD: 39.16% 34.77% 21.97% 4.10%
ClouD: 22.43% 34.58% 37.68% 5.32%
Probability of each pair advancing
TLO Mana ToD ClouD
TLO: 27.70% 21.57% 37.28%
Mana: 3.50% 0.30% 0.24%
ToD: 3.76% 0.18% 0.16%
ClouD: 4.81% 0.41% 0.10% HasuObs: 88.50% BabyKnight: 74.01% Fuzer: 31.66% Ret: 5.83% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Ret: 74.22% 19.95% 3.32% 2.51%
HasuObs: 3.59% 7.91% 38.92% 49.58%
Fuzer: 13.20% 55.14% 24.16% 7.50%
BabyKnight: 8.99% 17.00% 33.60% 40.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
Ret HasuObs Fuzer BabyKni
Ret: 0.90% 0.19% 1.41%
HasuObs: 1.21% 19.52% 28.86%
Fuzer: 0.88% 3.28% 3.34%
BabyKnight: 1.23% 34.73% 4.45% Snute: 79.83% MC: 69.09% Tarrantius: 36.60% Naama: 14.49% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Snute: 7.74% 12.43% 30.68% 49.14%
Naama: 54.70% 30.81% 9.11% 5.38%
MC: 9.56% 21.35% 37.79% 31.30%
Tarrantius: 27.99% 35.41% 22.42% 14.18%
Probability of each pair advancing
Snute Naama MC Tarrant
Snute: 2.81% 31.18% 15.15%
Naama: 2.25% 1.81% 1.32%
MC: 20.42% 4.93% 5.94%
Tarrantius: 8.01% 1.36% 4.80% Bly: 78.53% XlorD: 74.75% MarineKing: 37.47% WhiteRa: 9.25% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
XlorD: 9.49% 15.77% 32.58% 42.17%
MarineKing: 16.62% 45.92% 25.59% 11.87%
Bly: 6.36% 15.11% 36.54% 42.00%
WhiteRa: 67.54% 23.21% 5.29% 3.96%
Probability of each pair advancing
XlorD MarineK Bly WhiteRa
XlorD: 9.96% 30.04% 2.18%
MarineKing: 5.12% 5.35% 1.40%
Bly: 25.16% 15.12% 1.71%
WhiteRa: 2.29% 0.52% 1.15% Grubby: 96.19% HeRoMaRinE: 50.09% BlinG: 46.94% DIMAGA: 6.78% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
DIMAGA: 67.90% 25.32% 4.63% 2.15%
Grubby: 1.28% 2.53% 22.08% 74.11%
HeRoMaRinE: 21.73% 28.18% 32.20% 17.89%
BlinG: 9.08% 43.97% 41.09% 5.86%
Probability of each pair advancing
DIMAGA Grubby HeRoMaR BlinG
DIMAGA: 1.38% 0.65% 0.12%
Grubby: 3.70% 30.57% 39.83%
HeRoMaRinE: 0.27% 16.48% 1.13%
BlinG: 0.65% 4.23% 0.98% MMA: 87.47% BratOK: 85.84% monchi: 21.20% MoMaN: 5.50% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
MoMaN: 70.49% 24.01% 3.88% 1.62%
BratOK: 3.89% 10.28% 39.76% 46.08%
MMA: 2.77% 9.76% 40.58% 46.89%
monchi: 22.85% 55.95% 15.78% 5.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
MoMaN BratOK MMA monchi
MoMaN: 0.63% 0.85% 0.14%
BratOK: 0.77% 37.18% 8.13%
MMA: 2.80% 36.58% 7.51%
monchi: 0.32% 2.55% 2.55% Symbol: 92.28% Kas: 65.25% MajOr: 23.78% NightEnD: 18.68% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Symbol: 2.46% 5.26% 29.44% 62.84%
Kas: 16.05% 18.70% 40.58% 24.67%
NightEnD: 41.20% 40.12% 13.44% 5.25%
MajOr: 40.29% 35.93% 16.54% 7.24%
Probability of each pair advancing
Symbol Kas NightEn MajOr
Symbol: 36.72% 11.39% 14.73%
Kas: 21.03% 1.96% 1.68%
NightEnD: 3.62% 1.50% 0.13%
MajOr: 4.80% 2.36% 0.08% did you pull these numbers out of your ass? i dont even know where to start
LOL that list is ridiculous, might be a troll?
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Major is not coming btw, he just confirmed it in his stream chat. Says he can't fly because he's sick.
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On December 18 2012 04:29 nunez wrote:
why no nerchio? he'd rip most of these guys to pieces. can't wait though, and maybe there was some scheduling problems.
He would definetely deserve to be ther to defend his Title, makes me a bit sad, but every zerg less means one Terran or Protoss game more!!
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On December 18 2012 03:18 furo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 01:04 TheBB wrote:Biggest group favourites: TLO (!), Stephano, Grubby and Symbol. Group A Stephano: 98.11% Socke: 51.28% Feast: 26.54% GoOdy: 24.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Stephano: 0.60% 1.29% 14.45% 83.66%
GoOdy: 49.09% 26.84% 20.91% 3.16%
Feast: 32.26% 41.20% 22.81% 3.73%
Socke: 18.04% 30.68% 41.83% 9.45%
Probability of each pair advancing
Stephan GoOdy Feast Socke
Stephano: 20.30% 22.18% 41.18%
GoOdy: 2.55% 0.17% 0.45%
Feast: 3.31% 0.22% 0.20%
Socke: 8.60% 0.39% 0.46% TLO: 98.61% ClouD: 43.00% Mana: 32.33% ToD: 26.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
TLO: 0.49% 0.90% 12.07% 86.54%
Mana: 37.92% 29.75% 28.29% 4.04%
ToD: 39.16% 34.77% 21.97% 4.10%
ClouD: 22.43% 34.58% 37.68% 5.32%
Probability of each pair advancing
TLO Mana ToD ClouD
TLO: 27.70% 21.57% 37.28%
Mana: 3.50% 0.30% 0.24%
ToD: 3.76% 0.18% 0.16%
ClouD: 4.81% 0.41% 0.10% HasuObs: 88.50% BabyKnight: 74.01% Fuzer: 31.66% Ret: 5.83% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Ret: 74.22% 19.95% 3.32% 2.51%
HasuObs: 3.59% 7.91% 38.92% 49.58%
Fuzer: 13.20% 55.14% 24.16% 7.50%
BabyKnight: 8.99% 17.00% 33.60% 40.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
Ret HasuObs Fuzer BabyKni
Ret: 0.90% 0.19% 1.41%
HasuObs: 1.21% 19.52% 28.86%
Fuzer: 0.88% 3.28% 3.34%
BabyKnight: 1.23% 34.73% 4.45% Snute: 79.83% MC: 69.09% Tarrantius: 36.60% Naama: 14.49% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Snute: 7.74% 12.43% 30.68% 49.14%
Naama: 54.70% 30.81% 9.11% 5.38%
MC: 9.56% 21.35% 37.79% 31.30%
Tarrantius: 27.99% 35.41% 22.42% 14.18%
Probability of each pair advancing
Snute Naama MC Tarrant
Snute: 2.81% 31.18% 15.15%
Naama: 2.25% 1.81% 1.32%
MC: 20.42% 4.93% 5.94%
Tarrantius: 8.01% 1.36% 4.80% Bly: 78.53% XlorD: 74.75% MarineKing: 37.47% WhiteRa: 9.25% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
XlorD: 9.49% 15.77% 32.58% 42.17%
MarineKing: 16.62% 45.92% 25.59% 11.87%
Bly: 6.36% 15.11% 36.54% 42.00%
WhiteRa: 67.54% 23.21% 5.29% 3.96%
Probability of each pair advancing
XlorD MarineK Bly WhiteRa
XlorD: 9.96% 30.04% 2.18%
MarineKing: 5.12% 5.35% 1.40%
Bly: 25.16% 15.12% 1.71%
WhiteRa: 2.29% 0.52% 1.15% Grubby: 96.19% HeRoMaRinE: 50.09% BlinG: 46.94% DIMAGA: 6.78% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
DIMAGA: 67.90% 25.32% 4.63% 2.15%
Grubby: 1.28% 2.53% 22.08% 74.11%
HeRoMaRinE: 21.73% 28.18% 32.20% 17.89%
BlinG: 9.08% 43.97% 41.09% 5.86%
Probability of each pair advancing
DIMAGA Grubby HeRoMaR BlinG
DIMAGA: 1.38% 0.65% 0.12%
Grubby: 3.70% 30.57% 39.83%
HeRoMaRinE: 0.27% 16.48% 1.13%
BlinG: 0.65% 4.23% 0.98% MMA: 87.47% BratOK: 85.84% monchi: 21.20% MoMaN: 5.50% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
MoMaN: 70.49% 24.01% 3.88% 1.62%
BratOK: 3.89% 10.28% 39.76% 46.08%
MMA: 2.77% 9.76% 40.58% 46.89%
monchi: 22.85% 55.95% 15.78% 5.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
MoMaN BratOK MMA monchi
MoMaN: 0.63% 0.85% 0.14%
BratOK: 0.77% 37.18% 8.13%
MMA: 2.80% 36.58% 7.51%
monchi: 0.32% 2.55% 2.55% Symbol: 92.28% Kas: 65.25% MajOr: 23.78% NightEnD: 18.68% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Symbol: 2.46% 5.26% 29.44% 62.84%
Kas: 16.05% 18.70% 40.58% 24.67%
NightEnD: 41.20% 40.12% 13.44% 5.25%
MajOr: 40.29% 35.93% 16.54% 7.24%
Probability of each pair advancing
Symbol Kas NightEn MajOr
Symbol: 36.72% 11.39% 14.73%
Kas: 21.03% 1.96% 1.68%
NightEnD: 3.62% 1.50% 0.13%
MajOr: 4.80% 2.36% 0.08% did you pull these numbers out of your ass? i dont even know where to start
TheBB always uses http://aligulac.com/ for his predictions. Not really pulled out of his ass. You should read how the website works.
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On December 18 2012 04:45 Harrad wrote:
Major is not coming btw, he just confirmed it in his stream chat. Says he can't fly because he's sick.
TT. I was looking forward to seeing him play. HSC is far and away my favorite tournament of the year. The atmosphere and special energy of the whole thing is really unparalleled in the esports scene. It always feels less like a tournament and more like a LAN between old friends. Keep up the good work guys, you are doing eSports right.
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On December 18 2012 04:29 nunez wrote:
why no nerchio? he'd rip most of these guys to pieces. can't wait though, and maybe there was some scheduling problems.
Take said on stream that he would've loved Nerchio as well as Thorzain and someone else (don't remembe right now, but people were asking in this thread about him) to play at HSC, but all the three had some kind of scheduling problem.
Still looking forward a lot to this HSC. Can't wait for i to start.
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On December 18 2012 03:18 furo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 01:04 TheBB wrote:Biggest group favourites: TLO (!), Stephano, Grubby and Symbol. Group A Stephano: 98.11% Socke: 51.28% Feast: 26.54% GoOdy: 24.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Stephano: 0.60% 1.29% 14.45% 83.66%
GoOdy: 49.09% 26.84% 20.91% 3.16%
Feast: 32.26% 41.20% 22.81% 3.73%
Socke: 18.04% 30.68% 41.83% 9.45%
Probability of each pair advancing
Stephan GoOdy Feast Socke
Stephano: 20.30% 22.18% 41.18%
GoOdy: 2.55% 0.17% 0.45%
Feast: 3.31% 0.22% 0.20%
Socke: 8.60% 0.39% 0.46% TLO: 98.61% ClouD: 43.00% Mana: 32.33% ToD: 26.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
TLO: 0.49% 0.90% 12.07% 86.54%
Mana: 37.92% 29.75% 28.29% 4.04%
ToD: 39.16% 34.77% 21.97% 4.10%
ClouD: 22.43% 34.58% 37.68% 5.32%
Probability of each pair advancing
TLO Mana ToD ClouD
TLO: 27.70% 21.57% 37.28%
Mana: 3.50% 0.30% 0.24%
ToD: 3.76% 0.18% 0.16%
ClouD: 4.81% 0.41% 0.10% HasuObs: 88.50% BabyKnight: 74.01% Fuzer: 31.66% Ret: 5.83% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Ret: 74.22% 19.95% 3.32% 2.51%
HasuObs: 3.59% 7.91% 38.92% 49.58%
Fuzer: 13.20% 55.14% 24.16% 7.50%
BabyKnight: 8.99% 17.00% 33.60% 40.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
Ret HasuObs Fuzer BabyKni
Ret: 0.90% 0.19% 1.41%
HasuObs: 1.21% 19.52% 28.86%
Fuzer: 0.88% 3.28% 3.34%
BabyKnight: 1.23% 34.73% 4.45% Snute: 79.83% MC: 69.09% Tarrantius: 36.60% Naama: 14.49% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Snute: 7.74% 12.43% 30.68% 49.14%
Naama: 54.70% 30.81% 9.11% 5.38%
MC: 9.56% 21.35% 37.79% 31.30%
Tarrantius: 27.99% 35.41% 22.42% 14.18%
Probability of each pair advancing
Snute Naama MC Tarrant
Snute: 2.81% 31.18% 15.15%
Naama: 2.25% 1.81% 1.32%
MC: 20.42% 4.93% 5.94%
Tarrantius: 8.01% 1.36% 4.80% Bly: 78.53% XlorD: 74.75% MarineKing: 37.47% WhiteRa: 9.25% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
XlorD: 9.49% 15.77% 32.58% 42.17%
MarineKing: 16.62% 45.92% 25.59% 11.87%
Bly: 6.36% 15.11% 36.54% 42.00%
WhiteRa: 67.54% 23.21% 5.29% 3.96%
Probability of each pair advancing
XlorD MarineK Bly WhiteRa
XlorD: 9.96% 30.04% 2.18%
MarineKing: 5.12% 5.35% 1.40%
Bly: 25.16% 15.12% 1.71%
WhiteRa: 2.29% 0.52% 1.15% Grubby: 96.19% HeRoMaRinE: 50.09% BlinG: 46.94% DIMAGA: 6.78% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
DIMAGA: 67.90% 25.32% 4.63% 2.15%
Grubby: 1.28% 2.53% 22.08% 74.11%
HeRoMaRinE: 21.73% 28.18% 32.20% 17.89%
BlinG: 9.08% 43.97% 41.09% 5.86%
Probability of each pair advancing
DIMAGA Grubby HeRoMaR BlinG
DIMAGA: 1.38% 0.65% 0.12%
Grubby: 3.70% 30.57% 39.83%
HeRoMaRinE: 0.27% 16.48% 1.13%
BlinG: 0.65% 4.23% 0.98% MMA: 87.47% BratOK: 85.84% monchi: 21.20% MoMaN: 5.50% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
MoMaN: 70.49% 24.01% 3.88% 1.62%
BratOK: 3.89% 10.28% 39.76% 46.08%
MMA: 2.77% 9.76% 40.58% 46.89%
monchi: 22.85% 55.95% 15.78% 5.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
MoMaN BratOK MMA monchi
MoMaN: 0.63% 0.85% 0.14%
BratOK: 0.77% 37.18% 8.13%
MMA: 2.80% 36.58% 7.51%
monchi: 0.32% 2.55% 2.55% Symbol: 92.28% Kas: 65.25% MajOr: 23.78% NightEnD: 18.68% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Symbol: 2.46% 5.26% 29.44% 62.84%
Kas: 16.05% 18.70% 40.58% 24.67%
NightEnD: 41.20% 40.12% 13.44% 5.25%
MajOr: 40.29% 35.93% 16.54% 7.24%
Probability of each pair advancing
Symbol Kas NightEn MajOr
Symbol: 36.72% 11.39% 14.73%
Kas: 21.03% 1.96% 1.68%
NightEnD: 3.62% 1.50% 0.13%
MajOr: 4.80% 2.36% 0.08% did you pull these numbers out of your ass? i dont even know where to start
http://aligulac.com/faq/
Try me. What do you disagree with?
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Scarlett? Hope for some good matchs!
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This is going to he a Sick HSC! Even better then HSC IV!!! Pumped for this!
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Grubby will tear this tournament up! It's his time to bring home a big trophy.
On December 17 2012 15:26 Cheeseling wrote:
Looking forward to MANA vs NAAMA matchup ^_^
Lol, me too. That's such an old school matchup. I still remember that DH finals from just the beginning of the SC2 timeline. It feels like such a long time ago but really isn't when you think about it.
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On December 18 2012 06:00 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 03:18 furo wrote:On December 18 2012 01:04 TheBB wrote:Biggest group favourites: TLO (!), Stephano, Grubby and Symbol. Group A Stephano: 98.11% Socke: 51.28% Feast: 26.54% GoOdy: 24.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Stephano: 0.60% 1.29% 14.45% 83.66%
GoOdy: 49.09% 26.84% 20.91% 3.16%
Feast: 32.26% 41.20% 22.81% 3.73%
Socke: 18.04% 30.68% 41.83% 9.45%
Probability of each pair advancing
Stephan GoOdy Feast Socke
Stephano: 20.30% 22.18% 41.18%
GoOdy: 2.55% 0.17% 0.45%
Feast: 3.31% 0.22% 0.20%
Socke: 8.60% 0.39% 0.46% TLO: 98.61% ClouD: 43.00% Mana: 32.33% ToD: 26.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
TLO: 0.49% 0.90% 12.07% 86.54%
Mana: 37.92% 29.75% 28.29% 4.04%
ToD: 39.16% 34.77% 21.97% 4.10%
ClouD: 22.43% 34.58% 37.68% 5.32%
Probability of each pair advancing
TLO Mana ToD ClouD
TLO: 27.70% 21.57% 37.28%
Mana: 3.50% 0.30% 0.24%
ToD: 3.76% 0.18% 0.16%
ClouD: 4.81% 0.41% 0.10% HasuObs: 88.50% BabyKnight: 74.01% Fuzer: 31.66% Ret: 5.83% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Ret: 74.22% 19.95% 3.32% 2.51%
HasuObs: 3.59% 7.91% 38.92% 49.58%
Fuzer: 13.20% 55.14% 24.16% 7.50%
BabyKnight: 8.99% 17.00% 33.60% 40.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
Ret HasuObs Fuzer BabyKni
Ret: 0.90% 0.19% 1.41%
HasuObs: 1.21% 19.52% 28.86%
Fuzer: 0.88% 3.28% 3.34%
BabyKnight: 1.23% 34.73% 4.45% Snute: 79.83% MC: 69.09% Tarrantius: 36.60% Naama: 14.49% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Snute: 7.74% 12.43% 30.68% 49.14%
Naama: 54.70% 30.81% 9.11% 5.38%
MC: 9.56% 21.35% 37.79% 31.30%
Tarrantius: 27.99% 35.41% 22.42% 14.18%
Probability of each pair advancing
Snute Naama MC Tarrant
Snute: 2.81% 31.18% 15.15%
Naama: 2.25% 1.81% 1.32%
MC: 20.42% 4.93% 5.94%
Tarrantius: 8.01% 1.36% 4.80% Bly: 78.53% XlorD: 74.75% MarineKing: 37.47% WhiteRa: 9.25% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
XlorD: 9.49% 15.77% 32.58% 42.17%
MarineKing: 16.62% 45.92% 25.59% 11.87%
Bly: 6.36% 15.11% 36.54% 42.00%
WhiteRa: 67.54% 23.21% 5.29% 3.96%
Probability of each pair advancing
XlorD MarineK Bly WhiteRa
XlorD: 9.96% 30.04% 2.18%
MarineKing: 5.12% 5.35% 1.40%
Bly: 25.16% 15.12% 1.71%
WhiteRa: 2.29% 0.52% 1.15% Grubby: 96.19% HeRoMaRinE: 50.09% BlinG: 46.94% DIMAGA: 6.78% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
DIMAGA: 67.90% 25.32% 4.63% 2.15%
Grubby: 1.28% 2.53% 22.08% 74.11%
HeRoMaRinE: 21.73% 28.18% 32.20% 17.89%
BlinG: 9.08% 43.97% 41.09% 5.86%
Probability of each pair advancing
DIMAGA Grubby HeRoMaR BlinG
DIMAGA: 1.38% 0.65% 0.12%
Grubby: 3.70% 30.57% 39.83%
HeRoMaRinE: 0.27% 16.48% 1.13%
BlinG: 0.65% 4.23% 0.98% MMA: 87.47% BratOK: 85.84% monchi: 21.20% MoMaN: 5.50% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
MoMaN: 70.49% 24.01% 3.88% 1.62%
BratOK: 3.89% 10.28% 39.76% 46.08%
MMA: 2.77% 9.76% 40.58% 46.89%
monchi: 22.85% 55.95% 15.78% 5.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
MoMaN BratOK MMA monchi
MoMaN: 0.63% 0.85% 0.14%
BratOK: 0.77% 37.18% 8.13%
MMA: 2.80% 36.58% 7.51%
monchi: 0.32% 2.55% 2.55% Symbol: 92.28% Kas: 65.25% MajOr: 23.78% NightEnD: 18.68% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Symbol: 2.46% 5.26% 29.44% 62.84%
Kas: 16.05% 18.70% 40.58% 24.67%
NightEnD: 41.20% 40.12% 13.44% 5.25%
MajOr: 40.29% 35.93% 16.54% 7.24%
Probability of each pair advancing
Symbol Kas NightEn MajOr
Symbol: 36.72% 11.39% 14.73%
Kas: 21.03% 1.96% 1.68%
NightEnD: 3.62% 1.50% 0.13%
MajOr: 4.80% 2.36% 0.08% did you pull these numbers out of your ass? i dont even know where to start http://aligulac.com/faq/Try me. What do you disagree with?
Obvious points would be TLO and Xlord's percentages being so ridiculously high (TLO almost 99%, wtf?) and monchi and MKP (understandable, because I can imagine what his TvZ stats are looking like) so low. But the stats don't lie, it's probably gonna happen this way.
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On December 18 2012 06:20 StarVe wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 06:00 TheBB wrote:On December 18 2012 03:18 furo wrote:On December 18 2012 01:04 TheBB wrote:Biggest group favourites: TLO (!), Stephano, Grubby and Symbol. Group A Stephano: 98.11% Socke: 51.28% Feast: 26.54% GoOdy: 24.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Stephano: 0.60% 1.29% 14.45% 83.66%
GoOdy: 49.09% 26.84% 20.91% 3.16%
Feast: 32.26% 41.20% 22.81% 3.73%
Socke: 18.04% 30.68% 41.83% 9.45%
Probability of each pair advancing
Stephan GoOdy Feast Socke
Stephano: 20.30% 22.18% 41.18%
GoOdy: 2.55% 0.17% 0.45%
Feast: 3.31% 0.22% 0.20%
Socke: 8.60% 0.39% 0.46% TLO: 98.61% ClouD: 43.00% Mana: 32.33% ToD: 26.07% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
TLO: 0.49% 0.90% 12.07% 86.54%
Mana: 37.92% 29.75% 28.29% 4.04%
ToD: 39.16% 34.77% 21.97% 4.10%
ClouD: 22.43% 34.58% 37.68% 5.32%
Probability of each pair advancing
TLO Mana ToD ClouD
TLO: 27.70% 21.57% 37.28%
Mana: 3.50% 0.30% 0.24%
ToD: 3.76% 0.18% 0.16%
ClouD: 4.81% 0.41% 0.10% HasuObs: 88.50% BabyKnight: 74.01% Fuzer: 31.66% Ret: 5.83% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Ret: 74.22% 19.95% 3.32% 2.51%
HasuObs: 3.59% 7.91% 38.92% 49.58%
Fuzer: 13.20% 55.14% 24.16% 7.50%
BabyKnight: 8.99% 17.00% 33.60% 40.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
Ret HasuObs Fuzer BabyKni
Ret: 0.90% 0.19% 1.41%
HasuObs: 1.21% 19.52% 28.86%
Fuzer: 0.88% 3.28% 3.34%
BabyKnight: 1.23% 34.73% 4.45% Snute: 79.83% MC: 69.09% Tarrantius: 36.60% Naama: 14.49% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Snute: 7.74% 12.43% 30.68% 49.14%
Naama: 54.70% 30.81% 9.11% 5.38%
MC: 9.56% 21.35% 37.79% 31.30%
Tarrantius: 27.99% 35.41% 22.42% 14.18%
Probability of each pair advancing
Snute Naama MC Tarrant
Snute: 2.81% 31.18% 15.15%
Naama: 2.25% 1.81% 1.32%
MC: 20.42% 4.93% 5.94%
Tarrantius: 8.01% 1.36% 4.80% Bly: 78.53% XlorD: 74.75% MarineKing: 37.47% WhiteRa: 9.25% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
XlorD: 9.49% 15.77% 32.58% 42.17%
MarineKing: 16.62% 45.92% 25.59% 11.87%
Bly: 6.36% 15.11% 36.54% 42.00%
WhiteRa: 67.54% 23.21% 5.29% 3.96%
Probability of each pair advancing
XlorD MarineK Bly WhiteRa
XlorD: 9.96% 30.04% 2.18%
MarineKing: 5.12% 5.35% 1.40%
Bly: 25.16% 15.12% 1.71%
WhiteRa: 2.29% 0.52% 1.15% Grubby: 96.19% HeRoMaRinE: 50.09% BlinG: 46.94% DIMAGA: 6.78% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
DIMAGA: 67.90% 25.32% 4.63% 2.15%
Grubby: 1.28% 2.53% 22.08% 74.11%
HeRoMaRinE: 21.73% 28.18% 32.20% 17.89%
BlinG: 9.08% 43.97% 41.09% 5.86%
Probability of each pair advancing
DIMAGA Grubby HeRoMaR BlinG
DIMAGA: 1.38% 0.65% 0.12%
Grubby: 3.70% 30.57% 39.83%
HeRoMaRinE: 0.27% 16.48% 1.13%
BlinG: 0.65% 4.23% 0.98% MMA: 87.47% BratOK: 85.84% monchi: 21.20% MoMaN: 5.50% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
MoMaN: 70.49% 24.01% 3.88% 1.62%
BratOK: 3.89% 10.28% 39.76% 46.08%
MMA: 2.77% 9.76% 40.58% 46.89%
monchi: 22.85% 55.95% 15.78% 5.41%
Probability of each pair advancing
MoMaN BratOK MMA monchi
MoMaN: 0.63% 0.85% 0.14%
BratOK: 0.77% 37.18% 8.13%
MMA: 2.80% 36.58% 7.51%
monchi: 0.32% 2.55% 2.55% Symbol: 92.28% Kas: 65.25% MajOr: 23.78% NightEnD: 18.68% + Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Symbol: 2.46% 5.26% 29.44% 62.84%
Kas: 16.05% 18.70% 40.58% 24.67%
NightEnD: 41.20% 40.12% 13.44% 5.25%
MajOr: 40.29% 35.93% 16.54% 7.24%
Probability of each pair advancing
Symbol Kas NightEn MajOr
Symbol: 36.72% 11.39% 14.73%
Kas: 21.03% 1.96% 1.68%
NightEnD: 3.62% 1.50% 0.13%
MajOr: 4.80% 2.36% 0.08% did you pull these numbers out of your ass? i dont even know where to start http://aligulac.com/faq/Try me. What do you disagree with? Obvious points would be TLO and Xlord's percentages being so ridiculously high (TLO almost 99%, wtf?) and monchi and MKP (understandable, because I can imagine what his TvZ stats are looking like) so low. But the stats don't lie, it's probably gonna happen this way.
Well, not necessarily. 
Yes, MarineKing is low because his TvZ hasn't inspired confidence lately, with losses to Lowely, soo, Scarlett, JKS. (And there's one against goswser too, but that's not included. To be fair there's also a win against him.)
Monchi's numbers would have looked much, much better two weeks ago, but his rating dropped like a stone last list, and PvT is his worst rated matchup. But I can agree with his assessment being pessimistic.
Xlord's recent results haven't been bad, but his probability is high primarily by being in a group with White-Ra and TvZ disaster MarineKing, while having ZvT as his best matchup.
As for TLO, he has actually had pretty good results lately, and Mana has had correspondingly poor ones, with almost abysmal PvZ. If I were doing the numbers myself ("pulling them out of my ass" as it were) I don't think I would have given him 98% though.
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EPT
