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You're not factoring in Terran upgrades, which would lead to more deviations in the situation.
I did factor in Terran upgrades. They did not change the equation at all. If anything, medivacs make the possible outcome wildly different (ie 10 vs 10 marines +2 medivacs could be 2, then 5, then 4, mutas left).
people don't upgrade their air damaage so that mutas do more damage, they do it so that BLs do more damage late game
I would be more than willing to do an analysis on BL upgrades, but from what I understood, BL dps came from siege tanks splash and the broodlings, not air ups.
Care to show this revolutionary find with Dimaga?
Maybe I'll show the revolutionary find of "dont make double spire" with Nestea, Losira, Idra, Sen, DRG, and a thousand other zergs who DONT go double spire.
Getting double spire simply shows the player wants to completely focus on Mutas. For example, in ZvP, you might have a reason to go double spire (base trade scenario, supply cap issues due to overlords being killed off, usually being 200/200 when the base trade occurs).
Hmmm... I always get +1 attack the second my spire finishes. The logic is that I want to do more damage so that I can do the damage i need and get the mutas OUT before I have to engage things directly. then comes a quick +2 and I'll sometimes even get a second spire while my hive is building, so I can go for +3 +1 broodlords late game. I like to rely on control to avoid losing mutas (doesnt always work :-) ) I just think that getting upgrades early is important for having a good late game.
With +1 carapace, you can also stick around longer with your mutas to do more damage without losing them, so the logic can go both ways, and according to the data here, +1 carapace is better, but an additional muta is even better, which adds to life of the group as well as damage.
If you watch, say, DRG play (i think a lot consider him the best muta player), he's quite aggressive with his mutas and constantly engaging marines. Plus, you will always be forced to use your mutas in a fight against a good terran. Eventually your mutas have to fight, the whole idea of "your mutas should never engage" is ridiculous and I've never seen a game where that held true. You can't hold off 3base rine/tank/medivac pushes with only ling/bane.
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This is a very, very interesting thread (I mean this seriously). I kinda would like a video of the results because my gut tells me what you say can't be true. This totally changes the way I see mutas (and makes me feel stupid for starting +1 attack as my spire finishes every ZvT.
Thanks for doing this investigation. Very, very interesting results
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Interesting read thanks for doing the testing. However as pointed out the purpose of mutas at an early stage, especially zvt is to harass. The bonus glaive damage when attacking a worker line (with +1) seems to be worth it more than a single extra muta. Plus unlike making units you can only do upgrades in order anyways. Aka if I don't start +1 until 30 mutas ill be forever behind in upgrades.
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This is a very, very interesting thread (I mean this seriously). I kinda would like a video of the results because my gut tells me what you say can't be true. This totally changes the way I see mutas (and makes me feel stupid for starting +1 attack as my spire finishes every ZvT.
Thanks for doing this investigation. Very, very interesting results
It's quite hard to get accurate results with mutas, so it's not completely conclusive what I say here. Nevertheless, obvious trends came out that gave the simple answer on "which is better, upgrade attack, carapace, or an extra muta".
Just go into unit tester and try it out yourself. I did not do anything special here that no one else can't do with 5 minutes of time. The difference is that I did it first.
It made me look at certain things differently though. I always thought leenock was kind of dumb for going carapace instead of attack, which is what is most common, but then I thought to myself "hey why is that", since in general armor is almost always more effective than attack. I also wondered about double spire, and if you take out the "1 additional muta" results, you get a very convincing argument to go double spire (in fact, I was about to post saying you should always go double spire in zvt, but then I tested 1 additional muta sans upgrade and factored in relative costs of more mutas vs upgrades).
I always used to go +1 attack when spire finished in ZvT, so don't worry.
If you are worried about broodlords though, lategame upgrades, well, test out broodlord upgrades in unit tester ( i might do so later). But this thread should point out, that you should at least get upgrades a bit later. So for example, if you think upgrades on BL is important, when spire pops, don't start an upgrade until a few minutes later than you normally would.
Interesting read thanks for doing the testing. However as pointed out the purpose of mutas at an early stage, especially zvt is to harass. The bonus glaive damage when attacking a worker line (with +1) seems to be worth it more than a single extra muta. Plus unlike making units you can only do upgrades in order anyways. Aka if I don't start +1 until 30 mutas ill be forever behind in upgrades.
I don't think the attack upgrade would change critical hit numbers on workers, especially given the muta bounce, and if you want to look at it that way, an extra muta would be much better, as attack upgrade only gives +1/0/0 damage, instead of 1/1/1.
Anyways, in mid-masters, I never harass with my mutas, and my win rate in ZvT is over 70% (sc2gears). I use my mutas instead to deal with drops and snipe tanks and delay pushes.
Either way, as I've already stated, an additional mutalisk will add better dps than an upgrade. I also pointed out already that 1 additional mutalisk fares better than upgraded mutas against 3/3 marines, so the 'forever behind in upgrades' argument is ridiculous.
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Id argue that if you used your mutas to harass as well as snipe tanks and delay your win rate would be even higher. The first attack upgrade brings muta damage from 9-3-1 to 10-4-2.
That being said I don't think forever behind in upgrades is ridiculous at all. Air upgrades benefit broods and corruptors as well. (And while not the most needed upgrade in the game still helpful to have.) As far as raw data goes ill take your word that an extra muta is better. (I tend to forget +1 attack til later anyways so I follow your advice regardless) however when looking at the bigger picture starting upgrades at an earlier stage could be more beneficial overall. Most don't stay on mutas forever, though it can be a long part of the game I understand. I'm not trying to derail or discredit anything just pointing out that looking at the whole picture rather than just 1 unit vs another unit is not always perfectly applicable in game.
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What about accounting for the upgrade time?
Each mutalisk only takes 33 seconds to build, but the upgrades take minutes (160,190,220 etc), so if you wait until you have 30 mutalisks before starting upgrades, you are never going to get anywhere.
In order to have +2 armor done by the time you have 30 mutalisks (when it is worth having), you have to start the upgrades immediately.
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Belial Belial...
Here's a few reasons as to why you are wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong.
ZvT:
1. You DON'T FOCUS FIRE marines. You focus fire the medivacs THEN the marines. Whether you focus fire marines depend on how many mutas you have. Having mutas just enough to 1shot without overkilling marines or less = focus fire, otherwise you a-move.
2. Having extra mutalisks does not give you TIMINGS. It requires time to fly to the enemy base.
3. Having attack means you can focus fire TURRETS faster, giving SCVs less time to react and repair
4. Armor is useless vs SCVs
5. You start upgrades because by the time that your upgrades finish, you'll have enough mutas for the upgrades to matter. Mutas are not meant to end the game early, and thus you WANT upgrades to stack up later into the game.
6. Something called zerglings and banelings.
ZvZ:
People don't get more than 0-2 because it is more beneficial to use that gas to tech to infestors when muta-war is at a stalemate. At no point should you have more than 1-2.
ZvP:
Don't tell people not to focus fire man. You know perfectly well how vastly different blink affects everything. You have to focus fire targets at random against small amounts of stalkers or they will just blink away.
You should go 2-0 before 1-1 because:
1. Storm doesn't discriminate
2. You shouldn't be engaging anything with your mutas in ZvP, muta harass works different in this matchup.
Lastly, you honestly think your 1 hour of unit testing makes you smarter than the top zergs in the world? Getting double spire gives you many boons:
1. When you mass mutas, opponents will shut down your entire gameplan and K.O. you if they snipe your spire
2. When you mass mutas with double spire, your transition will be broodlords
3. You can morph greater spire while upgrading
4. Having more mutas cost more supply
5. Most important of them all:
You assume no mutas are lost.
6. Oh yeah and as guy below me said, larva.
So many things wrong it makes me cringe...
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You all forget 1 ULTIMATE aspect for this discussion
+ Show Spoiler +
You cannot just get from 0 to 30 muta's instantly, nor does larvea actually permit it in a normal game. Zerg produces overlords/drones/units from that 1 larvea
So getting either +1 while your building up your muta numbers is better for your econ, simply because without spending anything on upgrades, you won't have the ability to spend all your money.
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On February 16 2012 13:24 Belial88 wrote:
I agree, but the results also showed that getting more mutas is better than upgrades, which helps with burst damage as well. Yes, 0/0 mutas get raped by 3/3 marines, but an 1 more muta > +1 carapace +1 attack against 3/3 marines.
20 vs 15 marines, stim, combat shield
0/0 vs 3/3 = 7-8
1/0 = 10-10
0/1 = 9-10
1 Additional Muta = 12-11
You know, you could say "Hey, i wonder how 3/3 marines would fare" or "Did you try with 3/3?" What you are saying is kind of presumptuous. Even against 3/3, it's still better to have an additional muta.
Anyways, if you watch DRG, or many pros, they often will engage marines. In ZvP, it's very much about trying to kill off the stalkers as much as possible. I understand your point, but I disagree. You are engaging AA units very often with your mutas. Ideally, in scenarios where you will win overwhelmingly, and you run from situations where the fight is even, but even when sniping things, you will get shot at, or shoot at, arriving units. Also, a lot of the data seems to support the whole "What about the idea that you will never engage", like getting more mutas as opposed to attack. And in ZvZ, you are definitely engaging with your mutas.
Yes, there are times when you engage marines directly, but it's when you have an overwhelming amount of mutas, definitely not in a 20 vs 15 situation.
The real issue that you seem to have ignored in your post is that you get upgrades FOR SNIPING TANKS AND/OR BUILDINGS. Not to engage marines directly. Now with basic math I'll show how upgrades are better:
Mutas do 9/3/1 damage
Upgrade gives +1/+.33/+.11
You have 10 0/0 mutas... each burst volley is doing 10*9 = 90 damage on the first hit (no bounces)
You have 11 0/0 mutas... each burst volley is doing 11*9 = 99 damage on the first hit
You have 10 1/0 mutas... each burst volley is doing 10*10 = 100 damage on the first hit.
Yes, it's only 1 damage, but that number is compounded when you get to higher muta counts. Not to mention the fact that armor upgrades help SO much against muta attack.
You're getting MORE damage with an upgrade than you are at an extra muta when you have more than 10 mutas. This is math. You are going to be able to snipe turrets and lone units quicker with the upgrade.
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SC2 is weird and confusing :/
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i dont really agree with this as it assumes pure marine vs muta and no control by either and or supporting units (which is very important in determining the overall effectivness of the marines and the mutalisks) im still convinced that +1 is better overall when mutas are controlled correctly and allow for better sniping of tanks and medivacs etc as well as serving as a basis for late game broodlord play.
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I think a lot of people do this kind of analysis and conclude that upgrades are bad, but they're wrong. The problem is that you're not really taking into account that upgrades affect all current *and future* units. So sure, if you're only ever going to get 15 mutas, it's not worth getting an upgrade, but if you continue to replenish your muta count, the upgrades are important because you never have to buy them again. Extra mutas die and the investment in them is gone forever, while the upgrade stays forever.
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I don't understand the Get mutas instead of mutas point...
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The upgrade is also a teensy bit cheaper than another muta in terms of a quarter of an overlord and a larva, but usually you're getting upgrades to help you deal with what's going to be going on once you hit max supply. I'd say the decision comes down to how precarious your situation is when you have the 100/100 to spend, and that's pretty intuitive. If you're scared enough that you don't know if you can last until your upgrade is completed, sure grab another muta.
Maybe you skip the air upgrades if you plan to go ultra only without leaving the option to switch to broods, but I don't know how you'd make that decision.
Unless you're fighting mutas versus DTs or something, just having mutalisks out would usually signify a commitment to a longer game, which would mean tier 3 something, with upgrades. If your upgrades are slow that's probably not good.
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oh wait, didn't realise this thread was made by belial.
/thread please because this is not the first ( nor the last unfortunatly ) thread that he makes that just doesn't have any connection to the real game itself. sorry for being blunt but this is just how it is
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This is so awesome, I actually got upgrades very early for mutas, now I can leave them back with confidence till I get a larger group. Thank you!
I <3 people that lay all this out in math.
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God some peoples comments in this thread are so stupid they keep asking the worst questions and it makes me think they didnt read the thread! Good post mate, some things in this are a lil taken out of context of the actual game but some interesting info definitely. My only question would be broodlords etc late game but thats already been discussed, keep it up!
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On February 17 2012 09:16 TechSc2 wrote:
oh wait, didn't realise this thread was made by belial.
/thread please because this is not the first ( nor the last unfortunatly ) thread that he makes that just doesn't have any connection to the real game itself. sorry for being blunt but this is just how it is
I have to 2nd this, the data is just not relevant to the game at all. Mutas are not meant to engage marines directly. The purpose is to use their mobility to exploit weaknesses, and then do as much damage as possible before the opponent can defend. The only time you will be fighting marines head on is when they are too spread out, or you have an overwhelming amount of mutas, in which case carapace is not useful at all. It is a lot better to be able to take out a chunk of marines and then fly away before more marines come.
Another thing that isn't accounted for is that upgrades takes a while to get. If you start upgrades early on you can get +2 attack faster once you reach a muta count where upgrades are relevant.
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I know i'm a low level scrub, but isn't the muta primarily used as a 'harass' unit even in big numbers in that you want to do whatever damage you can and escape without taking losses? I think this is why carapace is the more popular choice? It does not matter how slowly you do the damage as long as you escape alive so you can attack again from another venerable angle.
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EPT
