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TL;DR - 10 Depot 11 Rax 14 OC should be the new standard Terran Economic Opening.
So I've been doing a lot of number crunching on economic data of worker death/delay pre-saturation and wanted to answer a few questions. Here are a few about Orbital Commands:
How do 14OC and 15OC compare?
14OC delays all your future workers up to full saturation (30) by 8 seconds, but gives you 8 seconds extra of MULE power.
Differences:
1) Grants you marginal mineral advantage early after completion (~10) which slowly depreciates into a 45 mineral disadvantage once fully saturated.
2) Your first marine can spawn SEVEN SECONDS EARLIER. That's a big deal when we're talking 2:53 vs. 3:00 game time (with consideration to cheese of course).
3) Rush timings of the fastest possible 10 marines from 15OC (constant worker) and 14OC (8sec delayed) are 4:42 and 4:44. (credit CarbonTwelve's SC2BuildOrder)
14OC:
10 Depot
11 Rax (Delay 12th Worker ~8 seconds)
14 OC
14 Marine (Optional, Finishes at 2:53)
15OC:
10 Depot
12 Rax (Constant Worker Production)
15 OC
15 Marine (Optional, Finishes at 3:00)
Timings:
@1:33 Identical until Delaying Worker 12 for 14OC
@2:59 14OC Finishes (778 Income per Minute vs. 630 Income per Minute..... for 9 seconds)
@3:08 15OC Finishes (778 Income per Minute vs. 778 Income Per Minute.... for 8 seconds)
-At this point, every 8/9 seconds there is an income increase in 14OC vs. 15OC.
@3:16 14OC completes 15th worker with a 10 mineral advantage.
@7:23 15OC completes 30th worker (full saturation).
@7:31 14OC completes 30th worker with a 45 mineral disadvantage. This difference becomes static.
What's the fastest possible OC? How much does it cost?
6 Depot
6 Rax
7 SCV (at cost)
7 OC (Finishes at 2:30)
7 Marine (Optional, Finishes at 2:23, 2 @2:58)
The fastest possible OC is completed at 2:30, and ends up costing you 1453 minerals until Saturation. You could never use this advantageously in any situation I can think of.
How much does it cost to delay OC instead of getting it at the standard 15 supply?
It's a good question. If you double rax refinery, you won't get your OC until about 17 supply (16 workers).
Between the delays in worker production and MULE power, It ends up costing you ~83 Minerals per 17 seconds (1 SCV Build Time), and the rate of loss depreciates slowly to full saturation. (Assuming you build it at 30.)
What are all the OC Timings you tested and their comparisons with 15OC?
7OC - ~1453 Minerals Lost (17.2% of economy) by Saturation Time, Marine Possible @2:23
7 Depot
7 Rax
10 OC - ~622 Minerals Lost (8.3%) by Saturation Time, Marine Possible @2:29, 2 @2:54
9 Depot
10 Rax
13 OC - ~170 Minerals Lost (2.3%*) by Saturation Time, Marine Possible @2:45
14 OC - ~45 Minerals Lost (0.6% of economy) by Saturation Time, Marine Possible @2:53
All 15 OC builds reach full saturation at 7:23
16 OC - ~83 Minerals Lost (1.3%) by Saturation
17 OC - ~166 Minerals Lost (2.5%*)
18 OC - ~238 Minerals Lost (3.6%)
(Depreciation Increases ~logarithmically here until 30 OC)
30 OC - ~400 Minerals Lost (6.3%)
* The economic loss vs minerals lost is slightly different due to differing saturation times.
"This is good information, but I question its validity. Show me all the gory details."
OCR.xls on google docs
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interesting. the buildorder optimizers usually choose the standard 10/12/15 depot/rax/oc bo, so this appears to be the optimal start in the long run. its kinda interesting that the economic sacrifice between 14 and 15 oc is so small. kinda like that 11 overpool/18 hatch vs standard 14hatch thing for zergs, where u gain a significant advantage against cheese or rush of all kinds at very low economical costs.
ill have a deeper look into this now, but i already say thanks! :-)
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link isn't working for me, nice worth tho
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On December 23 2010 22:01 zDUST wrote:
link isn't working for me, nice worth tho
does the link work now? I changed it to download directly.
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Honestly I'm a bit shocked that this thread has little to no responses. I just showed that the standard 15OC opening almost every terran uses should be changed to 14OC, and that a completely cheese-proof 13OC build is economically viable.
Oh well c'est la vie.
I'll try and think of a cleverer title for the next one.
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mr. brandow, I thank you Sir, this was very interesting, but the work is so good, that there is nothing to add.
You explained perfectly how expansive an early OC is, but that there are actually situations in which you could have an early OC (and afford it).
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3:00 is when the earliest of cheeses arrive (in-base proxy zealot/ 6-pool), there's no reason to sacrifice economy to get a marine earlier than that. Only a drone rush arrives earlier and it's impossible to scout it or have a marine out in time anyways.
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Ah thanks for this. It's very useful.
I usually didn't mind delaying my OC to 16-18 since the other races didn't have "MULES" or something similar. But I guess 15 OC is the optimal one as it can take you to full saturation faster.
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Quite interesting tbh. Good job, I might even try this out on ladder.
How would a 2rax early pressure strategy work with this though? Would the rax be built before or after OC? (i'm guessing after since this is apparently about getting fast OC)
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On December 24 2010 03:38 Saechiis wrote:
3:00 is when the earliest of cheeses arrive (in-base proxy zealot/ 6-pool), there's no reason to sacrifice economy to get a marine earlier than that. Only a drone rush arrives earlier and it's impossible to scout it or have a marine out in time anyways.
on steppes a 6-pool will hit at 2:45. If you lose even one worker, it sets you back more minerals (~240 vs. 170) than opting for the 13 OC.
Also to add, the 2:53 and 3:00 assumes you build the SD/Rax at your base. If you wall, it's going to be ~7-8 seconds later.
Meaning your First marine in the standard 15OC really is going to arrive around 3:07. Even the best players get cheesed, and trading 45 minerals over 7.5 minutes (negative at first) seems like a good deal to greatly reduce those odds.
And for insecure players, or players of lower skill or in team games, the 13 OC is going to completely shut down any cannon, zealot, or 6/8 pool shenanigans for the low trade of 170 minerals spread out over 8 minutes. This allows you to be more aggressive (earlier 3-4 marines) or more defensive (earlier bunker)--again, with minimal hit to your economy.
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Wow pretty cool. It will be hard to change my habits but I do want to try this...
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Good job. Never done the numbers but started to question the 14/15 OC scenario myself. Thanks for shareing.
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On December 24 2010 03:29 mlbrandow wrote:I just showed that the standard 15OC opening almost every terran uses should be changed to 14OC, and that a completely cheese-proof 13OC build is economically viable.
While you did state some facts, you never made an argument that 14 OC was superior. It looked more like a documentation of how many extra minerals you are paying to get your first Marine a few seconds earlier.
Also, I don't have that much confidence in the applicability of your results for several reasons:
- I don't think the build order calculator's precision is good enough to deal with such small differences (that's where you got the numbers, right?)
- You neglect to consider how a scouting SCV affects the timing
- You neglect to consider how a standard build like 2 rax OC or rax-refinery-OC affects the timing
EDIT: I'm not saying that this data is worthless -- just that it's not precise enough to make decisions over small differences, and not complete enough to make iron-clad assertions.
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I have a question - a lot of terrans get gas on 13. Putting 3 SCVs into it after it finishes should affect the 14OC more. How does this impact on the calculations? Also, in some builds, the 2nd gas come before the factory. How is the impact of this as well? Also, forgot to mention about scouting.
Thus, the study is incomplete and it's rather premature to call it the new "standard Terran opening".
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Where is the 13 Gas? You do the 12 Rax 15 Orb to get some level of tech... Unless you are expanding. I suppose if you go for 1 Rax FE it might be worth if :-\
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On December 24 2010 04:04 Hurkyl wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2010 03:29 mlbrandow wrote:I just showed that the standard 15OC opening almost every terran uses should be changed to 14OC, and that a completely cheese-proof 13OC build is economically viable. While you did state some facts, you never made an argument that 14 OC was superior. It looked more like a documentation of how many extra minerals you are paying to get your first Marine a few seconds earlier. Also, I don't have that much confidence in the applicability of your results for several reasons: - I don't think the build order calculator's precision is good enough to deal with such small differences (that's where you got the numbers, right?)
- You neglect to consider how a scouting SCV affects the timing
- You neglect to consider how a standard build like 2 rax OC or rax-refinery-OC affects the timing
EDIT: I'm not saying that this data is worthless -- just that it's not precise enough to make decisions over small differences, and not complete enough to make iron-clad assertions.
Respectfully, all of those answers are obvious.
The loss of 45 minerals over 7.5 minutes is absolutely trivial and well within the margin of error of any player's ability.
A scouting SCV doesn't affect timing, because it's assumed that you're going to scout the same as both builds. You scout with your Depot worker, or you scout with your Rax worker, or you scout at 9. Each impacts both builds in exactly the same way, because they are so close economically. In fact, they are identical up until you decide to delay your 12th worker by 8 seconds.
Double Rax OC is a fair point, but if you try it you'll note that 14OC and 14Rax can go down simultaneously (i.e.- you'll have 300 minerals when your rax/OC finish). If you decide to be aggressive, you can cut SCV time a hair more, and if you decide to be defensive, you don't have to lay down the 2nd rax. Since you'll have scouted by now, the 14OC gives you the flexibility to do either without having to decide omnisciently whether to sack economy for army. (Again, it's only 7 seconds, but that's so huge when you're at such a critical period in the game--your first army unit.)
Rax-Refinery-OC is absolutely fine with 14OC, and in fact you can tech even faster, as you don't *have* to make that first marine (as with 15OC) but you still have that extra income for the initial ~15-25 seconds.
The fact that they are so close together economically as to be only several minerals apart after so long should make this a no-brainer. Execute the opener that allows you the option of building a marine 7 seconds sooner.
You may not lose many games because of your first marine being delayed by 7 seconds, but when you start pulling workers to repair wall, fight lings/zealot/cheese/etc, that marine is more than going to make up that already negligible long-term disadvantage.
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On December 24 2010 04:18 Antisocialmunky wrote:
Where is the 13 Gas? You do the 12 Rax 15 Orb to get some level of tech... Unless you are expanding. I suppose if you go for 1 Rax FE it might be worth if :-\
You can easily afford a 2nd gas after your first rax.
I can't reiterate enough times that these builds are almost identical economically, with the ONLY notable difference being that your first marine can spawn 7 seconds earlier.
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The Faster Double Rax is 12/13 by cutting 1 SCV and making your Orbital slightly slower.
EDIT: And I'm not talking about your 2nd gas, I'm talking about the first gas. I'm also not sure why you're talking about 'cheese proof'. If I wanted to be cheese proof on Steppes vs zerg, I'd just wall the bottom of my ramp which would probably cost some minerals in travel time. I am curious if it is possible to get more income with a faster mule. I was experimenting with that doing a 10 Rax OC before the Terran Nerf.
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On December 24 2010 04:24 Antisocialmunky wrote:
The Faster Double Rax is 12/13 by cutting 1 SCV and making your Orbital slightly slower.
EDIT: And I'm not talking about your 2nd gas, I'm talking about the first gas.
Yeah I thought that's what you meant. You can afford your first gas right after the Rax. You're actually very slightly ahead in minerals up until around 18 supply.
In my several stabs at this opener (I am not a main terran player) I felt like my timings were a bit smoother in the early game, even though it could just be placebo effect.
I implore you to try it for yourself. The difference is so small you may not even notice (unless you make a marine asap).
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I don't get it, isn't this just saying you can get slightly faster units for a slight economic loss, which is kind of obvious? Or am I missing something here?
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EPT
