by Waxangel


Where They Stand

Both New Star HoSeo and ZeNEX were quickly bounced from the competition in the previous GSTL, affirming their positions towards the bottom of the Korean team barrel. The two teams are going into this season looking to prove that things have changed since then, and the first step will be to qualify for the second round where they will test themselves against the GSTL's tougher teams. Alas, only one team will progress tonight, while the other team will repeat last season's fate.

On the face of it, NSH hasn't shown us anything at all that tells us they're a different team from 2011's Season One. At their base, they're still GSL champion Jjakji + six talented, streaky, and inconsistent players. NSH wins games if someone besides Jjakji finds their rhythm, and they fall apart when that doesn't happen. Fortunately for NSH, they can probably get by ZeNEX with just an average performance from the supporting cast, but it's still a concern going up against the stronger teams in the next round.

ZeNEX, at least, seems to have improved their position considerably. It's really only because of a single player – the broadcast game ready ZeNEXLife – but finally getting a player who is a legit threat to the other team's best player is the biggest single improvement a team can make. Life took down HerO and MMA in consecutive series, and at this pace, he should have an even chance against Jjakji as well. The problem for ZeNEX is that besides Life, the rest of the team is still the old core of the used-to-be literally the worst team in the GSTL. Next to Life, only Line has given them anything at all, and they're still waiting on prospects Extreme, Avenge, and Harrier to produce. Life makes them much better, but like Jjakji, he needs reliable help to pull his team out of the bottom tier.

Although the future is worrisome for whichever team that happens moves on, there will still be a lot to enjoy in the present moment: This will be an exciting match between two teams with talented young aces supported by a slew of lesser known players who are just waiting for a chance to go off.


Players of Interest

ZeNEX: Harrier, Extreme, Life

Although he lost after falling apart miserably in the late game, Harrier actually looked pretty good for much of the early-mid game against Puzzle in the ZeNEX vs SlayerS match. It's very little to go off of, but it makes you cautiously optimistic for what the Code A player for ZeNEX could do if he finds his Mokdong studio rhythm. ZeNEX is a team that desperately needs people other than their LifeLine to perform, so you might as well put your hope on the guy who's given you any kind of glimpse at all.

In Extreme's case, he's the more obvious player to hype, as he's come off a three kill against oGs last season and great performances against a variety of teams in the KSL Team League (where he 4-killed NSH, incidentally). He was totally crushed by JYP in the ace match of ZeNEX vs SlayerS, but given that it was just one game and a PvP, we can give him a bye.

And of course, we have Life, the hottest player in the GSTL at present. Two great outings in a row suggest that his all-kill against Liquid was no fluke, and that he really has figured out how to justify his online notoriety in the GomTV booth. We're still in the business of figuring out just HOW good he is (unfortunately for us, MMA chose to mech in their match), but from our current observations, he is an all-kill threat against NSH.

NSH: Anyone who can beat Life before Jjakji

Considering the two teams' approaches so far, it wouldn't be surprising to see Life come out early, and then see Jjakji quickly deployed to take him out in turn. Even so, it would be great if NSH could bring out a sniper to get rid of Life more easily so that they can preserve Jjakji for later.

With ZvZ being Life's specialty, NSH's second best player in Seal seems to be very unsuited to the role. Without any of the maps in the pool being particularly Protoss favored in PvZ, San, Sage, and Tassadar don't seem all that likely either. What we might end up actually seeing is Hoon or Sculp coming out on Antiga Shipyard.


The Aces

NSH_Jjakji:

With a severe lack of TvT sniping power on ZeNEX, this is Jjakji's time to shine. If Jjakji comes out early like he usually does – perhaps to snipe Life who also comes early in the line-up – then which ZeNEX player exactly, is supposed to stop him? Extreme playing PvT on Atlantis Spaceship? Harrier praying that Jjakji's bad-TvT reputation is as deserved as he hopes? Jjakji is a serious problem for ZeNEX, and if Life can't defeat his third Ace of the week, things could start going downhill very fast.

ZeNEXLine/ZeNEXLife:

I'm inclined to say Line is the ace just because Life is being deployed too early, but maybe that's a preconception coming from a dated notion of what an ace is. The idea that the best player must play last has its roots in countless competitive games (especially fighting games), but that concept has gone out of fashion in Starcraft II. It's hard to put a finger on exactly why – perhaps it's because of the widely implemented policy of loser-map picks, or perhaps it's because specific player/race counter-relationships are stronger than other games.


Prediction

This match-up could end up a lot like Team Liquid vs ZeNEX, where the most important players on each team (HerO and Life) were played early, and the team that lost its best player (HerO) was quickly mopped up by the opposing ace (Life). Both Jjakji and Life tend to be played early in the line-up, and both of them are fully capable of defeating the remaining players in the other team's roster, once they have each other out of the way. I'm foreseeing A 3rd/4th set duel between Jjakji and Life with the series on the line.

In the case that their ace does fall, NSH is better equipped to recover and win anyway. NSH's players might be inconsistent, but Seal, Sage, and co. have defeated ace-class players a few times in the past (Nestea, Mvp anyone?). On the other hand, it would be a team first if ZeNEX's supporting cast could find a way to beat Jjakji.

NSH 5 - 4 ZeNEX