EPT![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/SilverskY/EVERSL.jpg)
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Foreigners have a strange relationship with the sponsors of starleagues. Starcraft fans in countries other than Korea will almost certainly never consume the products of the corporations who bring us the Starcraft we crave. Have you ever been to a Shinhan Bank? Have you ever had a Bacchus energy drink? Have you ever played Batoo, Lost Saga, Avalon, or Club Day?
Do you even know what EVER makes? I don't. And yet here they are, bringing us a fifth season of the game we love.
I personally feel a strong affinity for the company that will be sponsoring the fall OSL this year. The July vs BeSt finals in the EVER 2008 OSL were the first I ever watched... three games of beauty that made me a Zerg fan for life. I'm grateful to EVER for introducing me to the game with a bang in the form of an amazing final.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/E08_Final_BR/G23.jpg)
my introduction to Starcraft, courtesy of EVER
In fact, you might say that EVER OSLs are defined by fantastic finals. In Arrian's recent TLFE, A Finale in Five, four out of the five games he highlighted were from EVER OSLs, one set each from every one of the four finals that have been held. Boxer vs iloveoov in EVER2004 was certainly one of the best finals in Starcraft history up to that point. July vs Goodfriend (EVER2005), if nothing else, had an amazing Game 5. And Jaedong walked the Royal Road all over Stork in 2007, in a finals that demonstrated both his skill and exhaustive preparation.
With such a vibrant history, I'm looking forward to an exciting and dramatic finals in this EVER OSL as well, especially after the fiasco that was Jaedong vs Yarnc. But first, we need to talk about how the players will get there. Let's start at the beginning: OSL preliminaries!
Predicting Protoss
In the last offline events for the two starleagues, Protoss advanced out of their groups 6 out of 48 times, or 12.5%. Needless to say, this is a staggeringly low rate. There's no reason to think that race distribution this season is going to get any more balanced, either. Since the beginning of March, the record (counting both televised and non-televised games) for ZvP on the three maps being used in this prelim is 132-88, or 60%. What a difference 8 months makes!
The names at the top of every group are the players who I think have a chance to win it. Usually there won't be more than two; sometimes there will be only one. The first name is the favorite to win it.
The preliminaries have none of the drama, manufactured or real, of most Starleague games. There are no storylines, no frills, no chants of "fighting!". This is Starcraft in its rawest form, with urgency from the rookie looking to make his first real mark on the scene and a touch of desperation from the pro who everyone thinks is washed up. Like always, proving the critics wrong starts here, at the bottom of the barrel. The prelims are certainly where careers are made and broken, so be sure to watch the stream tomorrow and enjoy every minute you can.
Group A:
Lomo/
MovieGTR picks:
MovieOn the one hand, we have Movie, who slumped pretty badly at the end of last season. On the other we have Lomo, who totally psyched out everyone when he miraculously beat
BeSt in the PL playoffs. Movie slumping and Lomo getting an important win are probably not enough to compensate for the obvious skill difference between the two players, but I think Lomo's, ah, invigorating vacation in Canada recently can probably push him over the edge.Lomo vs Actuallykoala vs 
ClaySoO vs 45[Name]hwan vs MovieGroup B:
SangHo/GuemChiGTR picks:
MongTwo mediocre tosses. Since I'm an eSTRO fan, I'm going to find some reason to pick Sangho over GuemChi -- what's that you say? Sangho's ELO is higher than GuemChi? Well obviously he's going to win, then!
SangHo vs SungEunMIsO vs MidasyoOn vs MongPrincess vs GuemChiGroup C: Everyone!/
SeaGTR picks:
s2This looks like the weakest group of the bunch. Sea hasn't been at his best lately, but even at sub optimal, who's going to beat him? s2, Chavi, HoGiL and if.Classic are all solid players, but picking one of these guys to upset Sea is difficult.
Sea vs FenixfOru vs Chavis2 vs ClassicSky[kaL] vs HoGiLGroup D:
hyvaa/kekeGTR picks:
hyvaaTwo mediocre zergs. Hmm, keke's ELO rank is higher -- what's that you say? Hyvaa's ZvZ ELO ranking is higher than keke? Well obviously he's going to win, then!
hyvaa vs Sse[kal]M18M vs DongraePusan vs BByongBy.Rage vs kekeGroup E:
UpMaGiC/FireFistGTR picks:
UpMaGiCFireFist, although a proficient Gatorade drinker, simply doesn't have better ZvT than UpMaGiC's "wachanic" TvZ.
UpMaGiC vs YukiyeOngJae vs SpearFireFist vs ASuka-JrhOn_sin vs JaehoonGroup F:
Iris/GosI[Flying]GTR picks:
GosI[Flying]The Iris pick is self-explanitory, but he'll face a tough challenge from GosI[Flying], who, as everyone knows, is the next bonjwa.
Iris vs MellMajor vs GosI[Flying]FrOzean vs ZerG[kaL]Revival vs TempestGroup G:
RorO/JulyGTR picks:
JulyJuly will make it to the finals of his group, but his ZvZ is pretty bad and he'll probably be facing RorO. He may win, but it's not likely.
RorO vs Rex.IUjjonga vs PuMaSaiR vs Neo.G_SoulkeyParalyze vs JulyGroup H:
sKyHighGTR picks:
sKyHighSkyhigh is a pretty unpredictable player, but I don't see him losing in this group. I doubt
BoxeR has it in him to score three series wins against this bunch, but we can hope...sKyHigh vs neo.g_zerOHaran vs BoxeRLast vs RarityJaewOo vs 815Group I:
aMeBaGTR picks:
aMeBaWho is aMeBa, you ask? Besides being a trendy upset pick, he's a rising star on the scene, and he's going to make next season a lot easier to watch for MBC fans. These OSL prelims are going to be where he first makes his mark, unless
ToSsGirL, Much, or Pure can stop him. Probably not, in my opinion!Pure vs LuckyFancy vs DaezanGaMeBa vs ToSsGirLmaestro vs MuchGroup J:
Kal/MiracleGTR picks:
MiracleWho's going to stop Kal in this group? Miracle is a Khan Terran showing signs of improvement (he went 3-0 in the Proleague playoffs) but Kal is most definitely the favorite here.
Kal vs Justtiny vs LuCiferRuBy vs hwataBritney vs MiracleGroup K:
free[gm]/ModestyGTR picks:
free[gm]Free is the favorite by default, but he's been slumping pretty hard and he just went 1-1 with a no-name zerg (
yCh[z-zOne]). A few netizens here at TL saw this as more of a good thing for yCh than a bad thing for free, but I don't buy it: I think free is continuing his slump. The fact that Modesty is the strongest of all the threats in his group can give him hope, though. Modesty is decent and will put up a good fight... until he has the game won, that is.free vs rememberTosSLove vs SharkModesty vs RealityRush vs ReachGroup L:
PianO/sAviOrGTR picks:
IrOnI don't think I would put Savior as a favorite to beat any Terran in the top 50 of the KeSPA ranking. Also, PianO's TvZ is apparently pretty good, making him the favourite here.
sAviOr vs kimtaeyeonherb vs ggaemoIrOn vs herO[jOin]Someday vs PianOGroup M:
Horang2/Thezerg/TurNGTR picks:
YellOwI love watching Horang2, so I'm going to have to give in to personal bias and choose him to win out in his group. If I were smart, though, I'd pick Thezerg. He's an SKT zerg, but I have a sneaky suspicion that that label won't mean that much after this season. He's also posted good results against Protosses lately. Plus, you know, zerg imba. TurN is a player who impressed me this offseason, so I'm going to mention him as well, but mostly in order to look smart if he wins the group.
Horang2 vs WrathNeeL vs NbsYellOw vs MoonTurN vs ThezergGroup N:
Light/BaByGTR picks:
LightWho do I put as the underdog to Light? Baby or
YoonJoong (aka Shuttle)? Yoonjoong took a game off Flash last OSL in the Ro36 and won a Bo3 against Hwasin in GOM. Baby, on the other hand, won a Bo3 against Jangbi recently. I'll just predict that BaBy will win the group, unless he doesn't. Actually, no, that doesn't work since Light's the favorite. So let's say that Light will win the group, unless BaBy does, unless...You know what? Screw it. I'm predicting
Wuk will bust out and take it.Light vs WukBrave vs n.Die_soOBaBy vs Lake[Shield]Sharp vs YoonJoongGroup O:
fOrGGGTR picks:
BogusIf this were the MSL, I'd be biased in this pick since I'd want fOrGG to advance just so I could hear "The Pretender" on the stream again. But since this is the OSL, I can simply say that I'm picking fOrGG since he outclasses everyone else in his group.
fOrGG vs haitaiAction vs HakSooBogus vs by.minguMvPzerG vs NaDaGroup P:
Sea.ReallyGTR picks:
SnowMuch like fOrGG, Really (now known as Seiya) is on a level above the rest of his group. An interesting match in this group is
Killer vs Snow, which involves two up-and-comers who I personally think hold a lot of promise.Really vs hOddukDove vs Crazy-HydraKiller vs SnowRyung vs GoRushGroup Q: Everyone But Luxury/
LuxuryGTR picks:
LuxuryAt first glance, it appears that Lux is going to run away with the group title here. But he's been slumping so hard that I'm almost positive that he's going to get eliminated by some chump like
han or Justin. I couldn't possibly choose who, though.Luxury - ByeSpecial vs hanJustin vs SmileHaha vs TesterGroup R:
CalmGTR picks:
CalmCalm is on fire! I'd list
Saint as a possible challenger if Calm's ZvZ weren't so good nowadays. Also, good luck to Casy, who showed a strong performance in the MST qualifiers.Calm - ByeStats vs FavianSaint vs BeePurple vs CasyGroup S:
BeSt/HyuNGTR picks:
BeStBeSt gets a lot of grief for his PvZ, but he's pretty consistent against Zergs below the skill level of, say,
hero. And yeah, HyuN is definitely worse than hero.BeSt vs DDONGBarracks vs RockJuni vs ClouDGrape vs HyuNGroup T:
by.great/HyukGTR picks:
HyukActually, I think it's 50/50 for by.great to come out on top here. Judging by recent results, Hyuk is a zerg on the rise. He beat Jaedong in a ZvZ recently. If these two players meet in the group finals, I'd put the odds at even money.
great vs WizardGoZip vs XellOsGanZi vs DevilIsaC vs HyukGroup U:
HoeJJa/JangBiGTR picks:
JangBiJangbi is still slumping, and HoeJJa posted good results in the STX Masters Cup. Whether or not Jangbi wins this group will be a good indication as to wheher he's ready to be a star on Samsung's roster again.
JangBi - ByeDarkElf vs eagleNotice vs hungryGgMaN[Name] vs HoeJJaGroup V:
Violet/firebatheroGTR picks:
VioletI think there's no way FBH is going to beat Violet (especially with his historically bad at TvP), but
MVP might do the job for him. I sort of hope MVP makes it though since you can't have too many Realpenguin-produced image macros with explosions in them.firebathero vs DearHydra vs TazzaMVP vs SacsritHuNdeR vs VioletGroup W:
MindGTR picks:
yCh[z-zOne]I jumped on the
PerfectMan bandwagon pretty hardcore after his PL playoff win, but in retrospect I think it was probably a fluke. Mind is going to walk all over this group.Mind vs KT.MGW)ProtossSuny vs PerfectManOrion vs FirebatyCh[z-zOne] vs AnytimeGroup X:
HiyAGTR picks:
Shine[kaL]HiyA is good at beating mediocre zergs, and mediocre zergs are the only competition in his group.
HiyA vs invadeTrap vs PeaceoDin vs SayDream.t)Marine vs Shine[kaL]And... that's it! Logon to the Team Liquid OSL qualifiers Live Report thread on September 30th at 10:00 KST... OGN will periodically be choosing exciting matches and broadcasting them! We don't have a schedule up for that yet, but when we do, there will be stream links posted in the thread for sure. Stay tuned!
