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On July 30 2009 09:53 coltrane wrote:
Is way more convenient to lower directly the KP than make them believe we have more HP than we actually have.
No one's arguing against that, the discussion is whether having NKVDs posing as rebels would have a net effect of lowering their KP or if that would simply create one huge political mess in the Town, making us turn on ourselves due to false accusations.
On a tangentially related note: What's KP stand for? Killing Power of the mafia?
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On July 30 2009 10:22 person935 wrote:
Won't it get chaotic anyways when other roles find mafia? Zato/coltrane's argument is starting to make some sense to me.. what am I missing?
First, let me clarify my stance on the issue.
I find Ace's proposition to be the safest because there's a lot of people in the town, and when something goes wrong trying to explain a system with a lot of moving parts to a lot of people will end up in a train wreck. Ace's system is simple. When a NKVD RCs someone and it comes up as rebel, he's a rebel, period. I'm still not certain as to whether the best way to convince the town of this is through persuasion and tying clues to that person, or by role calling as NKVD and pointing to the rebel. Either way, it should be a relatively clear-cut deal.
I find coltrane's argument to be riskier, but in theory it could work out better. If each NKVD is acting as a landmine, waiting to be contacted by a rebel who RCs him, then in theory each NKVD agent will take one rebel down with him. If there are, say, 9 rebels and 5 agents, taking down that many rebels early on while they're still getting their network together could be crippling- this is the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is that through argumentation, sentiments and confusion, the plan goes wrong, no one knows for sure who's what, innocent people get lynched and the Town ends up divided, all the while the Mafia are getting organized and killing us off one by one.
By speaking in favor of coltrane I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate- I'm still more convinced by Ace's proposition.
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On July 30 2009 11:30 Ace wrote:
telling what group? ^_^
How can the NKVD tell anyone they found a mafia when they can't trust anyone else?
By role calling themselves as NKVD and publicly accusing someone of being mafia. It's called a landmine strategy for a reason- the landmines blow up :p
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I've been reading up on another game, and I found out something fascinating.
DT doesn't stand for Dark Templar!
When detectives are introduced as NKVD agents, newbies get confused :p
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On July 30 2009 13:00 t_co wrote:
This means day 1 we need to throw up tons of chaff, have each mafia have 20-30 potential mafia.
I may not have played this game before, but 20-30 total NKVD+mafia sounds too high. Let's say there's 9 mafia and 5 detectives for instance. The chance a mafia will get a 'rebel' result on a RC is 13 in about 50, or about 1 in 4. That means about 2 mafia will get a rebel result in day one.
On July 30 2009 13:00 t_co wrote:
Then day 2, the mafia have to let people know whether they are mafia or not by marking a target--but that has been made impossible, because mafia can't send out a target to 20-30 people and then have it go through.
Yeah... your numbers sound way off. I'd rather just stick to NKVDs posing as vets and keep an eye out on this forum. Mafia seems to be lurking.
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On July 31 2009 00:29 dinmsab wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2009 00:22 Falcynn wrote:
You post in the voting thread here in the mafia forum titled "Red Army Mafia Voting: Day 1".
You have to clearly state in your post "I vote for so-and-so" or "I abstain" and if you change your vote, make another post saying "I change my vote from so-and-so and vote for such-and-such". Thanks :D Im not mafia btw.
No one is mafia 
Until you meet them in a dark alley at night, that is...
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On July 31 2009 03:18 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2009 03:08 coltrane wrote:On July 31 2009 02:53 Ace wrote:On July 31 2009 02:18 Last Romantic wrote:
Has there been any agreed-upon course of action for Armymen who receive Rebel PMs? Well since no NKVD Agent should be disguised as a Rebel you shouldn't be getting any PM. WHen did we decided that?? half of the town dont think as you. Well since I'm better at this game than 99% of the people playing and I have never ever been wrong I think most people should follow my advice.
You better get that first lynching right when/if you get elected Field Marshal then :p
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On July 31 2009 03:31 coltrane wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2009 03:18 Ace wrote:On July 31 2009 03:08 coltrane wrote:On July 31 2009 02:53 Ace wrote:On July 31 2009 02:18 Last Romantic wrote:
Has there been any agreed-upon course of action for Armymen who receive Rebel PMs? Well since no NKVD Agent should be disguised as a Rebel you shouldn't be getting any PM. WHen did we decided that?? half of the town dont think as you. Well since I'm better at this game than 99% of the people playing and I have never ever been wrong I think most people should follow my advice. what a prick
coltrane, a couple of points:
Ace uses good spelling and grammar. You have no idea how much that helps your persuasion online.
Ace is also a respected member of the community with a long history of being right in these games (according to him at any rate, and I don't see any of the older members contradicting him).
Given the above, most people will find what he says compelling, especially when his arguments sound reasonable.
You have a legitimate disagreement with him, but you don't sound so humble yourself at times, plus you don't express your ideas as eloquently. I suggest you don't wage a war against his personality, because that's a losing battle for you. Stick to your strengths- analysis and ideas.
The Town is always in want for additional help, and everyone here- Ace included- will appreciate any contributions you can make along the way.
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On July 31 2009 04:01 Falcynn wrote:
for everyone who thinks they should disguise as Russians, do we at least agree that they should disguise as Veterans rather than Conscripts?
Yeah. It's the role that makes most sense- a role with weak offense (in terms of what they can do- they have no abilities to help their allies or hurt their foes) and powerful defense (need two hits to kill) should be the least attractive target for the rebels.
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On July 31 2009 06:10 L wrote:
Well, its pretty much tied between those two, but Lucas hasn't started his ridiculous troll spam this game thusfar
Oh... so THAT's what it was. I got a total of 5 PMs from Lucas yesterday, drilling me about my vote for Field Marshal and what I thought that candidate's game plan was and how I didn't understand it ;_;
On July 31 2009 06:10 L wrote:B) Every day will have special pre-determined conditions that will be announced on the day. These conditions are not game breaking but may be neutral or provide a slight advantage to either side.
Discuss what we think is going to come up. As for me, I'm going home soon.
Well, conditions have to be ad hoc to the setting. Maybe there'll be a curfew one night (skip 1 night phase), or heavy snow one day that will make any action taken (including RC, a medic protecting someone, following a clue, etc) leave clues behind.
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On July 31 2009 06:26 coltrane wrote:
Ok, look... my maths arent wrong
Maths are a very powerful tool, but it does seem a bit like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole in this case. From what I gather, Mafia is a deeply social game. You can't predict people's actions with a probability distribution if you have no idea what drives them to take those actions (and those actions certainly aren't chosen randomly).
While mathematical analysis of some sort might be helpful (with a LOT of assumptions) to determine how many people of each role there should be, the actual outcome of the game will be determined by things like which players were chosen as mafia, what clues are given and what we make of them.
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On July 31 2009 08:58 Shikyo wrote:
So, who are we planning on lynching at this moment? I didn't get if Ace was serious about Vivi57 or not. Who might other possible lynches be? Also, what shall the town's attitude be towards inactivity? Will the inactives be lynched, or is the town planning on rather concentrating on clue analysis and behavioral analysis to catch the Ukrainians? I'm guessing that we'll be wandering around pretty aimlessly until the next morning... not much to work with until then.
I don't think anyone can tell any ukranians atm, so the chosen Field Marshal will just lynch someone randomly or someone he dislikes I guess. Which means Ace probably was serious about Vivi57 ^^;
I don't see the point to lynching inactives. I guess if there's no one else we might as well, but strong mafia suspects are a much better use of our lynch. We win either by time limit or by killing all the rebels, so killing the bad guys advances both of those goals and should always be our priority. That means we'll need lots of people checking a ton of profiles for clue analysis @_@
Not really sure how to go about doing behavioral analysis, but it's definitely worth trying.
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On July 31 2009 09:56 Vivi57 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2009 09:39 L wrote:
And Vivi, if you're like a medic or some shit and you're pretty much ASSURED to die this lynch, its pretty fucking obvious you need to roleclaim. Since you didn't, the fact that you're a terrible player is pretty much confirmed. Well played, blockhead. Great. I was going to roleclaim as soon as I got home. I'm nkvd. Could have done a shitton more good for the town if you and ace weren't so intent on killing me no matter what.
Hm. Losing an NKVD on the first lynch would... suck. Then again, with this roleclaim, maybe the mafia will kill him on the first night anyway.
If he doesn't die on the first lynch, is there any way we can tell whether he's telling it true?
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Not sure if the exchange was favorable, but it looks like it wasn't.
Do we have any idea of how many agents we have left? Or how many rebels, commisars, medics, etc. there are in total?
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Have a busy work day tomorrow. Night folks, won't be posting a lot 
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On July 31 2009 21:26 Sinensis wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2009 19:09 Siefu wrote:On July 31 2009 09:13 coltrane wrote:On July 31 2009 07:14 Shikyo wrote:
I've thought about this a little. Posing as Veteran has the benefit of possible living longer. Also, if a NKVD checks another NKVD, he'd know it was a blue(I mean red) and could start talking to him and form a circle.
Posing as Ukrainians needs to have enough gains to overweight the innate losses. The obvious problem of course is that when a NKVD checks another NKVD, instead of being able to form any kind of a circle, it'll most likely lead to the death of both NKVD's. Although some people say that the risk is too small to consider, I'm... not sure. The chance is still there, and it'd be an extremely heavy blow to the town, and a waste of 2 days of lynches(Potentially like 18 kills max for the Ukrainians).
Now, besides this huge problem, the gains are: If an Ukrainian checks a NKVD posing as an Ukrainian, he contacts him and both get killed after the Ukrainian claims to be NKVD as well. But what if the Ukrainian doesn't contact him in that manner? What if he starts PMing him ordinarily to find out what role he might be? Or analyse posts? And if he's not convinced that he's not rebel, he might just hit someone else and avoid him? Furthermore, trading 1-to-1 townies to Ukrainians isn't a good idea. Ukrainians most likely have a huge KP in this game. Trading 1-1 is most likely not going to be enough unless they kill enough of their own.
But then again the Ukrainians couldn't properly form circles..... Sigh, which of these is better depends on who the Ukrainians are and their playing style and personality, pretty much. I don't think I can pick the plan that is better at this moment. Dont any one get it? We cant form any ring or whatever in any case. If a NKVD gets dt by anyone is MUCH MORE PROBABLE that he was DTed from an ukranian. Then NKVD posing as any they want cant trust any who pmed them about their cover. THats why we dont gain any posibility for NKVD to make a ring if they look like vets or any blue role. The advantage you describe is not such. Then, if the NKVD possing as Ukranian is not contacted, then he will live more and get all of his DTs into a good use. So the only advantege of get them as vets (to be able to form rings) isnt real. I say it again. They MUST go as ukranians. If you are a NKVD and dont believe me, then go as vet, is better than other things... but you are wasting a nice oportunity (and fun like shit). And, about the maths, i made an automaton program, is not based upon random things, is based in individual decisions of each virtual player. But, that i made it just for myself. Dont despite good math analisys, like in poker it could give us an edge. I would lynch ace cuz he is dividing the town... but i am voting for L, and really dont give a shit about first lynch.- Are you admitting you're a dirty rebel or was that just a slip? lol This is a good observation.
Nothing to work with imo. Looks like a pretty innocent mistake to me- and I say mistake because he wouldn't want us to think he's a rebel regardless of what he really is.
Doubting anyone on minor stuff like this is a bad idea. Wait until there are clearer signs of suspicious behavior or until you can link a clue to him.
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Yeah, got one too. Don't really see the point of it.
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Spam campaign.
Get on it, townies. You read RebirthOfLeGenD's spam. There are a few ways to tell it's fake. One of them is to read this thread. Another is, as a ukranian, to RC the spammer to make sure his role comes up as rebel. But RC takes a night.
Your homework: Write a PM you would send, as a rebel, to someone you just RC'ed as a rebel. Send a copy of that PM to 10 players at random, addressing them with their name.
Townies will know all they get is spam. If half the townies do their homework, each rebel will have 5 spam messages indistinguishable from a legitimate PM from another rebel. If they reply to a townie spammer, they get exposed and lynched. If they don't reply at all, they can never organize and town wins.
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On August 01 2009 17:49 Scaramanga wrote:
LYNCH KUJA AND REBIRTH TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER CLAZZ
In Soviet Russia, Mission Accomplished actually means Mission Accomplished
The spam campaign was originally intended to prevent rebel organization more than to catch rebels. Scaramanga's findings are merely a bonus. Don't slack off townies, you have a duty to the motherland to clog the tubes of the internet with our righteous message!
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So. Night 2 is coming up. We need to think of attractive targets for the rebels so the medics can cover them.
Please correct me if I'm wrong on any of this:
Attractive targets = frequent posters. If the people who are generating ideas for the town die, we could suffer a significant setback. The rebels who RC'ed a townie on night 1 will probably hit that person, while the rebels who RC'ed another rebel will have to RC again on night 2 and wait until night 3 to start killing stuff.
Likely targets:
Elemenope
Falcynn
L
Malongo
Scaramanga
Zato-1
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EPT![[image loading]](http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/9123/bushmission.jpg)
