As for the weather: I don't believe Snow first night would be good, as stated since we don't know how exactly clues are going to be based. However, if we wait too long, then we'll miss a good timing window in my opinion. Snow really peaks at its usefulness once we find our first mafia. After that night, the other weathers outstrip it until either all pledges are dead, all assassinations are used, or all angels are dead in my opinion. But we have to get a mafia within the next 2 days (possibly 1), to make the most use out of it if we ever do decide to do Snow, otherwise it's just too late it seems with a KP of 5.
Sunny wouldn't be a good option either for first weather since we have no good targets.
As for Fog or Rain; I believe going for Rain would be the better option. Although there would be a guaranteed drop in KP if we do Fog; Angels only have one protection and there are no second lives for other players (except the angels themselves). With a KP of 5; and only 2 protections available, some of our better contributors can die early on and that would be a massive blow to the town. We can drop that to 4 with Fog, but that'd still leave 2 important people to die (possibly). With 4 protections though, we'd have a better protection spread among the town, and we'd also have the possibility of reducing KP through stacked hits on top of that (which I think is the more likely scenario that will happen if we do Rain).
And although the chance of a suicide bomber on night one is unlikely, we'd still lock him out if we do Rain, in comparison to the possible scenario of the bomber taking out somebody on the medic list *and* the angel(s) protecting him on night one.
I just feel that the risk of having 2 important, contributing members of the town die is just too great compared to double angel protection and most likely forcing mafia to stack hits
Can anybody tell me if I'm wrong in this thinking of Rain over Fog before I send in my vote?