EPTI just changed the format to make my bolded bit stick out more.
Mafia VIII [GG] - Page 3
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Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
I just changed the format to make my bolded bit stick out more. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:09 fusionsdf wrote: can someone say why its definitive that one is mafia? I don't trust either, which is why I didnt vote for them, but I missed what changed between people trusting them and voting them in and people saying they must be mafia. Why did people trust them in the first place? Why dont they trust them now? I made a post earlier (5 or 6 pages back I believe) about my reasons regarding Ver. Turns out point 2 of 3 was based on a misreading of a quote, however 1 and 3 were both strong on their own. In short: Ver is posting like he was last game (as mafia) he promised activity/planning/usefulness and he's bringing none of it. He keeps saying he has a lot to say and says nothing. He was incredibly dodgy on the infinity21 lynch. He asked town about 3 people, asked Ace about 2 people, both (I think) of which were part of the 3 people, and then picked infinity21 who was both outside the 3-4 people up for discussion and according to Ver's own posts, nowhere near as suspicious as some other people he has been calling out (Read: Mynock). | ||
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Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
We lynch Ver tonight. We vigi someone tonight based on what we learn from ver's death. Mafia kp is down to 2. A likely scenario, not definite but nowhere near impossible. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:24 LTT wrote: If 2 vigis stack hits, we will be sure to refund the hit of the second to send it in. Also all townies will be resurrected and be given 6 additional night lives. I deserved that. | ||
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And no shit, if Ver flips red it doesn't mean Ace is innocent, I never said that. | ||
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Ok, after consideration, I'll go along with your plan. On the condition that you agree to vigi'ing Ver tonight, giving us 2 fresh hits tomorrow if the vigi is willing to go along with us. | ||
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You also mention the vote train on Ace signifying Ace's guilt. To use your own (valid) arguments from earlier, this is similar to the pardoner case. Just because a mafia pardoner pardons a person, doesn't make the person mafia. Just because mafia voters vote for a mayor, doesn't make that person mafia. I'm sure you can work out the reasons why this is a potentially viable tactic, the discussion we are having now is proof of that. And yet you keep ignoring this, I'm not the first one to bring this up, Ace has already brought it up. You simply repeat the almost-mantra that you've got "you have dodgy voters, you must be mafia". Taking those arguments out, removes most of the suspicion you've been building up against Ace, almost forcing the argument. Ace has made the point I just made multiple times and each time you ignore it, trying to force the issue. I sent you a pm earlier, and I said I'd post it if Ace exhibited a certain behaviour. Original Message: I too feel that the argument between Ace and Ver back during the election was terribly contrived. I do want to see Ace killed tonight (as in, before I agreed to your plan in the thread), part of the reasoning behind my posts in the thread was that I wanted to see how Ace responded to my defense of him, and your accusation. He just sat back, which to me indicates more that he's mafia, as they are usually willing to let Town do their work for them (in this case me arguing for him). I'm pretty confident now I've agreed to the plan you're proposing, we're going to see Ace come rocking into the thread "What the fuck is wrong with the town" etc. If he does, I'm going to post this pm btw. You might notice that I didn't post the pm and call Ace out as mafia. His defence of your accusations were rational and definitely fit the defence of somebody out to help the town, whereas your accusations kept trying to put words in Ace's mouth (the working with from support deal which I just covered for example). On top of all this, let's have a look at the people voting for Ace. We've got nemy, our traitor/dt/mafia, we've got Plexa, our resident "vote and never post" mafia, and we've got dreamflower, who by your own reasoning you believe is mafia. To take your own advice from earlier in the thread, step back and be objective. If you were mafia, what would you do in the situation where the town is lynching an innocent? You'd go along with it, that's what I'd do, and what mafia have been doing in every game. These all combined to make me believe Ace has a much, much lower chance of being mafia than my initial 50%. Which brings us to your plan of lynching Ace first to min/max our deaths/kills/wasted lynches w/e. It only matters to kill Ace if we think he is mafia. Since it's getting less and less likely that this is the case, we return to lynching Ver, someone we can all agree is exhibiting the most obvious mafia behaviour in this game (Maybe 2nd to Plexa). TLDR L's plan is based on the concept that our pardoner is mafia I have shown L's arguments regarding Ace being mafia to be incredibly forced. This could be either because he is a townie who doesn't want to admit he is wrong, or because he is mafia. Ver is much, much more suspicious than Ace We don't want to repeat the mistakes of last game Lynch Ver | ||
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Bockit
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Premise 1: I have no issue with this. Essentially it's saying, if Ace / Ver are mafia, we gain lots of information about their voters. As a premise, that's true. How we work from it I think is where we are disagreeing. You are saying we should kill both Ace and Ver. I'm willing to give Ace the benefit of the doubt based on my observations of his behaviour. If we lynch a candidate and they're innocent we get little in terms of information from the votelist (Your red herrings point). I'm at this stage willing to say I think Ace is *more likely* to be innocent than guilty. Enough so that I'd rather not lynch him over Ver tonight. Premise 2: I think this is irrelevant as I still haven't seen anything to convince me that any of the bgs claimed to anyone. Everyone knows by now the perils of doing so. They'd gain absolutely nothing out of doing so, it makes no sense. Premise 3: Same as premise 1. I agree with the premise. It only comes into play if they flip red. Again, I'm not sure enough Ace is red to be putting our hit on him at the moment. Give me better arguments than "he had a dodgy voting pattern behind him" (easily a potential red herring), or "he was working with mynock and ver", give me solidish clues (Hardware one I'm not a fan of). If you can give me solid evidence that he is mafia, then sure. Otherwise I'm inclined to disagree on the actions we should take based on this premise. Premise 4: Yes, this is true, again, if he is red. As you say, a lot of people accept that there is a red in office. Most people are pretty sure it's Ver. Not many are agreeing with you at this stage that it's Ace. Yes it's possible they are both mafia. Premise 5: This is true. I'm going to run some numbers, this is how I see it. If we lynch Ace and he is green, we've essentially wasted 1 kp of our total x kp. We traded 1 kp for 1 non-mafia If we lynch Ace and he flips red, our kp is unchanged. We've successfully traded 1 kp for 1 mafia. If we don't lynch Ace and he is green, our kp is unchanged. If we don't lynch Ace and he is red. He pardons someone as he dies on a double lynch and we lose 1 kp of our total x kp (it was pardoned in the only circumstance that a mafia pardoner is ever really going to use his power with a negative effect on the town, double lynch with him included). To me it looks like we end up even on both ways. It's possible mafia get 1 extra hit on us if when the time a mafia pardoner gets killed in a double lynch of which the other suspect is a mafia, and we need to kill both to knock their kp down a notch. Do you see how obscure this situation is? There is no need to lynch Ace now. Vote to lynch Ver | ||
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On May 20 2009 21:57 L wrote: Haha, wait, you were on our team last game and were the first instance of red herring dropping. Why would you ignore that in your analysis? The red herring dropping was part of my analysis. It works both ways. You can implicate and remove suspicion with red herring dropping. I'm saying that the people who voted suspiciously for Ace could very likely have been red herring dropping. That there was suspicious activity behind Ace's vote train is not a reason to lynch Ace. It is a reason to look at the vote train if he dies and flips red. | ||
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Bockit
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On May 21 2009 09:12 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Yeah, Ver's absence is unusual. It's possible he's been really, busy; he did mention defending his honors thesis or something like that. But he hasn't even popped in to just leave a remark since right after the day post These are exactly the same stunts Ver pulled last game, don't fall for them! He might legitimately have an honours thesis to defend, I'm not going to make a call on that. What I am going to make a call on is that he promised activity in his electoral platform, I'll even quote him. I don't have anything to say about accountability because I'll make it glaringly obvious that I'm on the town's side. Because being mafia takes so much time I only make the minimum number of posts; when I'm town it's the exact opposite. Read that again, look at his posting habits (both sparsity and content) and then try to tell me his absence is merely unusual  | ||
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Bockit
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Doesn't mean I'm not suspicious, I'm just saying it matches his behaviour as far as I know it. Plexa on the other hand.. If you want to know how active Plexa can be, go check out Mafia 2. It's the exact opposite of this time around. Dunno what to call him yet, but it doesn't look good for him  | ||
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