EPTIf we exhaust all our vigi hits without hitting a red we still have a short list of vigis we can then DT check with either clue checks, role checks, or may just clue analysis as Caller explained. If more than 3 vigis role claim, that's probably better than a vote count list would be for winnowing out a mafia.
TL Mafia 5 [Game Over] - Page 3
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
If we exhaust all our vigi hits without hitting a red we still have a short list of vigis we can then DT check with either clue checks, role checks, or may just clue analysis as Caller explained. If more than 3 vigis role claim, that's probably better than a vote count list would be for winnowing out a mafia. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On March 18 2009 10:43 Ace wrote: Well past experience isn't going to help on this one - the rules of the game are different. With the plan these guys have come up with, Mafia claiming vigi is really a valid concern. Even without mafia interference the plan has some big holes but we can't just assume Mafia won't try. Your example actually helps my argument - Tim is highly suspicious. If Tim doesn't flip Mafia the town has just FUCKED up. Bob can be Mafia or legit Vigi but we won't know without solid clue analysis. Even if the clues are worded in a way that shows bob as a vigi(which it won't btw since there are barely any big codenames to go on so far, and even if there were we'd be trying this too early to be able to seperate Mafia codenames from Vigi codenames) what do we do now? Send in all the roles to Bob, who absorbs tons of medic prot and even if he lives now has to sort out liars and coordinate DTs and use up all the rolechecks on the liars? All of you are making the classic mistake you make every game - you look at the good side of the "what if" example and always forget the other side, which more than likely will happen. This time the good side isn't even that good as it's a plan with so many flaws. Very high risk for moderate gain. The best bet for this plan to work is to hope that Bob is a legit Vigi that also happens to be running for Sheriff/Mayor. Even then it probably won't work out well. The risk isn't that freaking high: if the vigi hits red we know they can't be mafia or even GF and we can send them roles. If the vigi doesn't hit a red we don't send them roles and see what we can figure out from clue analysis, clue checks, role checks. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On March 18 2009 10:50 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Thing is: say a legit vig claims a hit, and overnight turns out that person was green/blue. Mafia can now kill the vig for free, because it reveals no new information to us. Or they let him live and allow suspicion to develop. Even some mafia/players could push a case to say that the vig must have been faking and start a bandwagon to lynch, then we lost a lynch and a vig and a vig hit and a bystander. You cannot count on such a bandwagoning attempt to be immediately transparent - i think the power of bandwagoning has been proven in previous games. If the Vig is going to kill a blue/green the mafia will probably let him do it. If the vig is going to kill red they will probably try to kill the vig to prevent organization. If the vig gets killed after killing a blue/green its not the end of the world since they had no power left anyway. If the mafia bandwagon to kill the vig who killed a blue/green I think they will look suspicious - we aren't giving the roles to a vig unless they hit red. On the fourth day if a vigi comes forward saying they are a vigi when we've already had 3 claim then we have a short list from which we can find at least one mafia and if we accidentally kill a blue/green while using clues to sift through it at least they are ones that killed how the town wanted them to (have to make sure we hold them to this so the mafia won't want to fake a vigi and then be asked to kill a red that they can't kill) and are now powerless. On March 18 2009 10:50 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: I understand we have precious few options for confirming blues, but the adequacy of the plans so far leads me to question whether it is even worth it to bother with them in this round. I suspect it will be better to hold our elected officials to an agenda that solely benefits town - under pressure of lynch if they screw up. This could help minimize any damage done by a possible elected mafia, because an elected townie will act for the towns benefit anyway unless he is an idiot. But then we just screwed up by electing an idiot etc. I do agree that the vigi plan is a long shot however I don't think it is mutually exclusive with holding elected officials to the demands of the town under pain of lynch - that should happen regardless. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On March 18 2009 10:59 Ace wrote: ... Vigis don't have a lot of shots this game. If a Vigi hits Tim the innocent Townie he is no longer confirmed. End of the plan. If Bob the Vigi turns out to hit Mafia, then all medic prot goes to Bob(who can still be killed) after he's been jailed for a night and everyone else gets killed. Sure, Bob can pass on his unsorted list of liars to someone else - but who does he pass it on to? He can't confirm anyone himself because da da da - he's just a vigi! see how many holes this plan has even if you get everything right by chance? If the vigi turns out to be confirmed good the unsorted list will probably yield him some sort of goodies - if everyone does their duty and sends in their role the mafia will have to fake role claim at least one of every blue or there will be someone to pass it on toward. He'll be able to check at least some stuff I imagine and yeah that makes him a big target but this has still been a legitimate goal of the town every game despite the risk it carries. Even if the mafia use 100% of their KP to take him out, that's a ton of KP to kill one person and helps out the town a bunch in catching up to the bad guys. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On March 18 2009 11:11 Ace wrote: 1.) what CLUECHECK? The Vigi is going to show up the same night as Mafia codenames IF we even get codenames. So how are you going to know which is which? You can't. Then you still have to find the right clue. And you still are assuming that your highly suspect person is going to flip Mafia. If he doesn't thats it - it's over. 2.) The vigi wouldn't risk dying if none of us know who he is. I'd rather something happen in the day that makes someone plainly obviously mafia, Vigi hitting that guy, and then finding a way to prove it was him rather than going to the reverse option which is just terrible in this game. 3.) actually you haven't. We know the mafia can't control what clues they get - they never have in any mafia game. But since you don't know who the mafia are, you can't tell who the clues point to or how they are done. So when you throw the Vigi in there you just have one big mess and no way of figuring it out. 4.) how do you know the mafia are going to be checked by faking another role? Remember, the DTs are going to have to check every other list too, and this says nothing about how many rolechecks they will have left at that point. Faking blue roles is a very legit strat this game. and once again - the GF will never miss. He's better off hitting if he wants the town's trust. If his target is Mafia, which he could never hit then he would have never fake claimed vigi to begin with and let the plan continue so they could just ruin it later down the line. 1) If they call out in advance and only they call out and we agree they should call out, then if a red dies we don't even have to clue check them we know they are good because mafia can't hit mafia. 2) I doubt anything would happen in the day that would obviously make someone mafia and then not have them killed in a lynch or double lynch. If 3 mafia out themselves accidentally in one day they are Team Noobzors and we'll win regardless. If you can give a way for them to prove in reverse they made a hit I'll entertain it. 3) The vigi calls out who they are going to kill. So, if a vigi claims to hit a blue/green, you look for the clue connected to the person they killed and see if it points to the vigi and that the people dying that night outnumbered the mafia KP. I don't think I'd send my role into a vigi confirmed this way though. A dt could clue check them though to make sure and at least start up a private circle with them if this happened. 4) The beauty of this vigi plan is that it gives us at least a chance to confirm a blue without using a DT (we don't have a DT that we can trust in the beginning anyway). I don't see any other plan giving us even a chance for trustworthy organization. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On March 18 2009 11:15 Ace wrote: There is no martyr this game, no vet,no jacks, and very few medics. There are only so many guesses to go around. But ok, go ahead and ignore my warnings. If the vigi misses on a high probability target, now we have to hope we kill the GF and that the original vigi wasn't a normal mafia faking it. Then we also have to hope another vigi steps up, takes his shot, and that the guy he hit flips mafia thereby confirming him instead. but if he misses neither of them are confirmed, 1 person is surely lying if the GF claimed also, and then we trust BOTH of them even though we don't know which one is legit. Yes, let's go with this idea. If they both miss we DON'T TRUST EITHER OF THEM. It's not that hard to understand - if they miss we are neutral to them we sure as hell don't send them roles and if we can exonerate them or implicate them later we do it. Simple as that. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On March 18 2009 11:18 Ace wrote: If the mafia use all their KP to take the guy out the info is lost. Remember it takes some DAYS to even get the info out to DTs to sort it. He'll be dead by the second night he's out. The mafia have more to gain than the town by faking every blue role. Even at the loss of 3 members, the town loses all their info, half or even more of the legit DT rolechecks and a few days on a plan that at best gets us less than even to where the mafia are now. This plan takes no DTs to get to a confirmed blue. Without this the DTs are going to be islands unto themselves unable to avoid overlapping anyway. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
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Pyrrhuloxia
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On March 18 2009 09:57 Caller wrote: That said, I vote for semioldguy, because BC does the same electoral thing every game, and that worries me. Anyone know what he means by this? | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On March 18 2009 11:58 Ace wrote: Of course I have a better plan, I'm just not going to reveal it yet because I can't. But I sure as hell won't watch the town follow a plan that's going to put us in the grave. As a responsible townie it's my job to poke holes in any plan until it's revised to the point it can't be destroyed so easily. If not, then we just abandon the plan - like we should be doing with this one. @Inf: You know if I'm against some plan in a Mafia game and if you assume I'm innocent - there has to be a really good reason right? Look at the plan and tell me after going through all the "if this happens, and then if this and this and this" happens and it all comes out what is the point? It's like no one realizes this game is designed so that there is no way to have early central organization as easy as before, but you guys are going to kill yourselves and all the rest of us in trying. right now it's better to see how the this election and the first day plays out while letting the DTs do whatever it is they want to do. I had a plan that I didn't want to share and so I can definitely think of reasons you wouldn't want to yet so that idea isn't too sketch but you are continuing to attack a strawpersyn argument here. Our plan of trying to see if he can confirm a vigi by having them get lucky with a red hit wouldn't tie up a single DT check. If the vigi doesn't get lucky we are hardly in the grave; we're not going to hand roles over to a vigi that isn't 100% innocent. I realize the game is designed to not have early centralization but holding elected officials accountable and playing the game with respect to that is not mutually exclusive with spacing out vigis and trying to get a verified blue with a list they can work with and try to pass on. More information can only help us - if the vigi gets killed after making their hit they were powerless at that point anyway. We don't necessarily have to have the vigis use their kills asap just make sure only one goes away but sooner would be better imo because we are always toying with the risk they die before they can do anything. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
BC (10) Qatol Jyvblamo Ver Fishball Chaoser Pyrrhuloxia Scaramanga Zeks 3 Lions Tricode Pyrrhuloxia (5) Fusionsdf Mikeymoo Teejing LaxerCannon Malongo (Switched from Caller) Semioldguy (10) 0cz3c Mista Pika Chu Phrujbaz BWDero Truthbringer Caller TranceStorm dreamflower CynanMachae (changed his vote from BC) Mr.BabyHands (1) Ace Hope this is accurate... | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On March 18 2009 13:16 motbob wrote: I vote Pyrrhuloxia because I think semioldguy is mafia. Something about his posts don't sit right with me... I'm probably wrong. Yeah I'm kind of confused. I think there's got to be a mafia candidate by now but no idea who it is. I definitely wouldn't even rule out Mr.BabyHands. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
I want to make it clear that I believe we can only trust the vigi if they hit a red. We should also have the town vote on who we ask the vigi to kill - this means we can force a fake vigi to be obligated to kill one of their own and thus out themselves and avoid a fake vigi continually faking that their kills are being stolen (and if a real vigi gets his kills stolen, well, the dead person has been voted against and thus probably would have been hung later on anyway, and at least the vigi gets their kill back and gets to try again). Of course this plan would require medics to cover the vigi. This means faking a vigi is great for the mafia because they get to have the medics on one of their own while they kill us. Then again, the medics could be doubling up or helping out mafia players anyway since without this plan I don't see a path to organization. Saying I'm as good as mafia is bullshit. For pages now I've explained that my plan wouldn't tie up any DTs because we only trust the vigi if they kill a red because anything else can be fake. Do we want to risk losing vigis / wasting medic protection to try to get a guaranteed blue we can trust? I dunno; we should still be debating it. We're risking losing vigis / medics no matter what we do, everything could be doubled up or used to help mafia if we have no organization. And yes, even if we get a verified blue they could die fast / not get enough role claims / not find someone to pass things on to. But it has been the most helpful thing in the past and was killer in the previous game. I can't imagine it wouldn't be tremendously helpful in some regard this time. The mafia could throw us for a loop but as long as we don't trust anyone who doesn't kill a red (Ace is spot on that we can't rely on codenames to appear or trust someone who claims to be a DT or the mouthpiece of one) then I don't think we're way up shit creek. I suppose It's more than arguable that tied up medics will lose us too many skilled players early and that we shouldn't have vigis killing until we have a lot more clue material. I'm willing to follow whatever the town decides on here and maybe Ace is right that this plan would be best held off until we have more info that would give us more options if the vigi's kill gets blocked. I guess the question is, are we resigned to the fact that early organization is not worth the risk this game and can we trust individual blues to act well without a circle until the DTs build one (which may never happen if they die early or don't get the right checks)? | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
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1. Shock wave is a Pikachu move "He got to the door just before the explosion and was caught in the shockwave." Shock wave is a move that Pikachu can learn: http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Shock_Wave_(move) 2. Seems like at least one of the mafia is short. "They approached Chuiu slowly and he backed up to a safer distance keeping the gun aimed at them. When they stopped he lowered the gun slightly and told them to put their hands behind their backs and get on the ground, then he yelled at the third person to get out of the car." It could be that Chuiu lowers the gun a bit because he realizes one of them is short so he aim it at them a little better. This one isn't that great or important. 3,4. One mafia can grab a gun with his hand behind his back - this same mafia stands up at rest and then runs while leaned over. "One of the mafia complied and began lowering down to the ground, Chuiu raised his gun at the other and yelled at him to do the same. But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu and with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side." Notice that Pikachu stands up straight on two feet while at rest, then runs parallel to the ground - Pikachu would have no problem sprinting while lowering to the ground: (I knew my tv tuner would serve a purpose someday!) Also, Pikachu would have no problem grabbing a gun with his hands behind his back because he grabs them with this mouth: 5. This same mafia can throw a gun to the side without using his hands: "with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side" 6. This same mafia uses a tackle move: "He tackled Chuiu to the ground and then ran over to the gun and armed himself with it." Might be a reference to the pokemon move: http://www.pokebeach.com/scans/expedition/124-pikachu.jpg 7. Chuiu is at least somewhat familiar with smash bros, the game the vids are from He posted in a thread about it, I dunno about incognito http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=42012¤tpage=2 | ||
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