EPTTL Mafia 3 [Night 5] - Page 4
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
We can all agree that Ace is mafia. 1. MidnightGladius keeps on saying he might hvae some clue interpretation coming up later. He never does it. He starts saying this as early as page 22ish I believe. 2. Ace is the first to vote to lynch Folca. Folca himself is the second. 3. MidnightGladius is the third. His reason: On November 03 2008 12:39 MidnightGladius wrote: Intriguing. ## I vote to lynch Folca. 4. RTS)Nightmare is the fourth to vote Folca. 5. Folca accuses MidnightGladius of being mafia based on his signature (clue) and behavior. 6. SoleSteeler abstains. 7. Heros)Pink is the first to vote to lynch Ace on Folca's word alone. 8. Jimtudor thinks Folca looks legit. 9. Alventenie: On November 03 2008 13:52 Alventenie wrote: I myself think we should hold off lynching folca until tomorrow. Lynching him today means hes dead for sure, waiting until tomorrow means the mafia either: A) kill him, to make sure he doesn't use any more abilities, or B) let him live, trying to cast suspicion on him making him seem fake. Instead we should try to find another mafia through the clues tonight. Once we lynch them (I am voting for decaf), tomorrow we lynch folca (if he is still alive, i believe he will be if we dont lynch him), that way he can use another ability tomorrow. If he turns blue, we vigi Ace so no one can save him, and with luck, drop the mafia kill count to 4 by tomorrow night. You guys are really charging into this without thinking of your options. Folca pretty much is sacrificing himself, but at least use him for as much as possible. By the town killing him tonight, we give the mafia an extra kill tonight that they wont waste, and it means we have more time to look for other mafia. Lynching him now would be foolish, wasting his potential where we could chance getting a mafia on day 1, not a blue. I vote for decafchicken ps. I believe midnightgladius and jimtudor are people we need to watch for. Midnight for his sig + extremely quick to lynch folca without considering the options. I also think Jimtudor should be watched due to that fact that he is almost certain folca is legit, even though he wouldn't know that by just reading folca (i believe folca, but i am not certain he is legit, so im using him to get the biggest gain for the town). Townies please reconsider folca's proposition of lynching him tonight. Let him live through the night with no paramedics watching him to see if the mafia truly wish to kill him. 10. Empyrean: On November 03 2008 13:57 Empyrean wrote: If we don't lynch Folca, will he have a chance to use his powers again and report them before he dies? If so, then I wouldn't advise lynching Folca. He'll die anyway, so in death he'll be vindicated. If no mafia target him to make him look suspicious, we'll all lynch him anyway. That's why I don't want to vote Folca. As for who to lynch, I still don't know if we can yet trust Folca (or he could be a mafia roleclaiming DT but Ace is also mafia...this way, Folca gains our trust while the mafia don't lose any killing power, and Folca can direct us to kill someone important later) since he's not dead, so because of this, I wouldn't vote for Ace either. I'll still stay with what few clues we have and vote to lynch decafchicken. I vote to lynch decafchicken. Also, has the town abandoned the Mandalor style plan I suggested earlier? If not, then we should probably coordinate first and second suspects. Also, when will Chuiu compile the vote list? 11. Alventenie tries to explain to MidnightGladius. Ace repeats MidnightGladius' argument, and a few posts later, Alventenie explains the same thing to Ace.: On November 03 2008 14:36 Alventenie wrote: Sigh, you are thinking so incorrectly, it furthers my belief that you are a mafia. You are pretty much charging in at first chance to lynch mafia, thinking only short term to get goals done. What you aren't thinking is long term. By lynching folca tonight, we lose his abilities for tomorrow, or we lose the play of forcing mafia to kill him. We also would be ignoring the entire day of clues, even if vague, at linking them to someone. Anyone voting folca obviously is just bandwagoning without thinking for themselves, meaning the mafia already have this game in control and will continue such a trend until the town is wiped out. Notice how no one until myself challenged lynching folca tonight instead of tomorrow. No one thought of what him being alive through the night does. The fast route to ONE mafia kill is to lynch him tonight. The fast route to multiple mafia lynchings is to lynch him tomorrow. Why? Because we pretty much are assured he will die, tonight (by mafia, wasting a kill they could of used on someone else if we lynch folca today), or tomorrow, when we lynch him. The fact that we should be looking for a mafia tonight is better than killing someone who has role called. Why? because if we kill said role call person, he flips blue, mafia kill 5, we then are lynching our first mafia, and then our vigilantes have ZERO targets until we analyze more clues, putting more townies to risk of dieing for being loud spoken. By lynching folca tomorrow, one of our vigi's have a confirmed mafia kill (if folca is detective and not mafia), and we put pressure on the mafia as to whether to let folca live or die tonight, or tomorrow. This gives us more information in the long run for finding mafia than lynching folca tonight. 12. Ace defends decafchicken like there's no tomorrow. He also says: On November 03 2008 15:06 Ace wrote: And of course I'm sure you would say that. Me defending decaf paints both of us mafia. So lynch me first now, instead of Folca even though the burden of proof is on him and he has nothing to do with decaf. Right. Makes perfect sense don't you think? 13. BloodyCobbler defends decafchicken. On November 03 2008 15:11 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Based on the clues? I destroyed them with facts that relate directly to FOOD INDUSTRY, coffee is a normal thing at the end of a meal, i also listed other names that are linked to a "meal" setting to begin with, ffs, they have been defeated, now new evidence is needed to continue the bandwagon 14. decafchicken, in the middle of a "lynch Folca today or tomorrow" discussion, once again says that some people are going off a clue that is way too easy to be true. He does this so much it's almost annoying. 15. Ace points out the following: No one can prove that Folca is a legit DT and no one can get anything except coffee = decafchicken as their best clue. He points out BloodyCobbler's defense of decaf. On November 04 2008 01:26 Ace wrote: It's sickening because if decaf flips green, and then I flip green what would you have to say? Stop trying to double think the mafia motive and just go for what's best for the town. 16. Caller: On November 04 2008 04:49 Caller wrote: yeah, we're lynching him TOMORROW. EVERYBODY PLEASE LISTEN: Lynch Folca Tomorrow. IF he is mafia, he cannot do any more damage. IF he isn't mafia, at least he can take another hit for some other townie tonight. If they don't hit him, we get another role check or something from him, no? Please please please understand this. 17. Amber[light] suggests (laughably...what a horrible suggestion) that another DT step up and ask about Folca's role, thus leading to another DT revealing himself. 18. Alventenie repeats that lynching either Ace or Folca tonight is just a bad idea. 19. MTF (long post): + Show Spoiler + On November 04 2008 09:42 MTF wrote: Ok, since it seems theres a movement to lynch Ace tonight, which I think is faulty, I'll try to exemplify this for everyone: Reasons to Lynch Ace: Clues: + Show Spoiler + ""We can trust no mayor, no governor, no authority this day or the next." May relate to his role in the last game as an authority figure. Other: + Show Spoiler + He has been accused of a rolecheck by Folca, who has made several posts trying to provide information. Reasons to Lynch Folca: Clues: + Show Spoiler + "Many in the crowd were excessively enthusiastic about the lynching and many were grave and quiet." May be a reference to his profile picture. Other: + Show Spoiler + He has accused Ace of being rolechecked as mafia and implicated several other prominent players, myself included, with faulty and rushed reasoning. Overall View: Lynching Ace or Folca is a fifty/fifty gamble, which is better than can be said of lynching any other person in the game right now. That being said, Ace has been setting plans into motion from the beginning and engaging in active discussion with the people trying to organize town. This is a good thing, and Ace's plans have not been openly malicious and have helped move town along in discussion and avoid the mistake (ironically) of revealing DT's for the towns gain due to the suicide bomber. Now, this is not to say I believe Ace is town for sure, as what he has done is the only smart thing he could do given the previous game. Ace is not proven innocent by any means. Neither, however, is Folca. And Folca came out of nowhere with his accusation and proceeded to call out several people with absolutely no basis for most of it. Now, mafia or true detective, this was not a smart thing to do. Considering this, one must ask the origin of the actions' desperation: the only thing other than simple foolishness I can think of is that everything is less organized this early in the game. That can only benefit mafia, as they start off from the very beginning in a structured manner. Accusing key members early on would only benefit them. Now, assuming Ace's innocence, implicating and taking him out this early on would eliminate one of the strongest structures that town could organize itself around. This alone may be worth the attempt by mafia, especially if they're banking on him having an additional role, as nearly half of all of the town does. I can see it argued the other way around easily enough, though, and it is a fair view to have that doing this as a mafia member or a true detective doesn't make much sense this early on. But Folca has done it, and we can only prove the why by lynching one tonight. The evidence that either is telling the truth is about even. The matter of choosing is simply in the behavior, and the hoped-for outcome, as either way we risk losing someone of value. Personally, I think Folca is lying, and even if he weren't, town wouldn't get a proven DT the following day, because mafia would be insane to keep a revealed DT alive. So, there is only one argument for voting Ace over Folca: You believe Folca for whatever reason and want to make mafia waste a hit tonight. However, the same exact thing can be said of Ace, as if Folca is indeed red, then they wanted Ace dead early on, and will undoubtably use at least one hit on him tonight. I guess that about sums up my feelings on the matter. Ace is inherently more valuable as a structure than an unproven detective that has been revealed if he is indeed innocent. Edit: As I wrote this, Bockit essentially put it in a much more succient manner. :p 20. fusionsdf loves MTF's clue analysis <3. 21. Caller's general suspects: Ace, Decafchicken, MidnightGladius, ulszz, SoleSteeler. Also points out that GiTM-Ace, Aznvaliance and Mandalor bandwagoned on Folca in a row without any reasons why. 22. BloodyCobbler insinuates that people who voted for decafchicken aren't smart players and that they don't read clue analysis. Page 36, bottom 3/4 of the page. 23. Ace once again reiterates decafchicken's defense of himself. A page later, he bandwagons on one of BloodyCobbler's arguments against Empyrean. 24. Empyrean thinks that Ace has strong arguments and even if he -is- mafia, he'd still be an asset to the town for a few days because he'd have to act the townie part. | ||
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
My suggestion for vigis is to kill Ace, decaf, and MidnightGladius. I also suspect BloodyCobbler, but that may be just me. | ||
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
On November 05 2008 01:07 HeRoS)Pink wrote: well that might be difficult to do 1) yes Ace is sure to die to vigi's hand no need to waste a lynch on him 2) vigi doesnt know who are the other vigi's are, they might taget the same 3) also we should wait for the set of clues #2 before pointing fingers at bloodycobbler/decaf/midnightgladius Then we waste our vigi hits, since their powers aren't being used. And as for vigis being confused about who to hit, Chuiu says "If your hit overlaps with another Vigilante I will cancel all other hits but the first one and will notify anyone who's hit didn't go through the following day and you will be able to use it again." So it's not like they're wasting hit power, they just wouldn't use it for that night. | ||
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
On November 05 2008 01:15 SoleSteeler wrote: I'm all for killing off Decaf and MidnightGladius, but it's possible Ace knew he was fucked and so decided to try and get us to lynch innocents after he's dead. Still, certainly the best bet. Maybe Ace thought he could talk his way out of his situation. Ace, decaf, and MidnightGladius supported each other as early as page 18 onward. | ||
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
On November 05 2008 01:25 fusionsdf wrote: well now we know to vote for ace would have been worse if folca was green still this comes out roughly even for town Except there was the possibility mafia could anticipate incorrectly paramedic action, and we'd have another round of information from Folca. Anyway, I'm still suggesting vigis to target Ace, decaf, and MidnightGladius. If each vigi votes randomy, there is only a 1/9 chance that they all independently target the same person, so 8/9 chance that at least two of the three die. | ||
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
On November 05 2008 05:14 mikeymoo wrote: The problem is that vigis can't properly coordinate with each other. They should just each randomly choose a target out of the three. We have a 8/9 chance that at least two of them die. | ||
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
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Empyrean
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On November 07 2008 11:59 Ace wrote: yea lol THE GHOST OF EMPYREAN IS HAUNTING THIS TOPIC. Damn the town sure is stupid this time around :/ | ||
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
 ...even better without Ace  | ||
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
EDIT: Also mafia were pretty daft...no offense. | ||
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Empyrean
17058 Posts
On November 18 2008 23:29 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote: didn't that work out exceptionally well for them in the first game? The town was exceptionally stupid the first game | ||
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