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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:17 aZnvaLiaNce wrote:
I've already pleaded my innocence pages and pages ago (around 187?). If you're not going to listen and not see how I'm trying to actually TRY to nail red, not my problem.
As for now, since I'm having fingers pointed in my direction, and I know myself to be green, it's very suspicious in my own mind that Plexa is red. It's better for townies to come out and try reason some arguments against various people and have them debated around and get dialouge going than for everyone to stay silent. It moves the town forward, and we can get somewhere. Rather than have a boring non-eventful mafia game.
This is what i've done throughout the game, i've changed my suspects millions of times. Infact, i'm leaning towards Lostyourskills due to his quote. Atfirst he was lucky, now it is habitual skill
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On April 11 2008 14:22 fusionsdf wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 14:18 Plexa wrote:On April 11 2008 14:13 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 14:08 Plexa wrote:On April 11 2008 14:07 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 14:05 Plexa wrote:On April 11 2008 14:01 fusionsdf wrote:
to me, the fact that he
a) got a lucky kick
b) got a lucky shot on yogurt
means we should look for luck as a clue for eddie the fact that Yogurt was our mad hatter and characterised as a good fighter means the luck clues are someone less strong secondly thats was o-n-e night not all nights. Hence luck has very very little to do with eddie and the luck can be dismissed as filler how so? Its not like shooting someone in the face on a lucky shot is valiant You are starting with suspects, and trying to link clues to them. And thats a mistake. and luck is not a filler. If you think it is, I highly suggest you look at the game one wrap up I've seen the game one wrap up and there were PERSISTENT THEMES which linked to mafia. Not strange one offs - those turned out to be red herrings Yeah and it just happens to link eddie with luck twice and we have spare sentences like: [1,2]Chuiu and DapperDan were betrayed by their own comrades, and now their ||lives hanged on the balance.|| and you want to throw it away for a valiant thing thats contradicted by your own quote. I really like how you try to argue panicking and shooting someone is valiant. No. Fucking. Sense. Just so you can steer it to suspects youve already chosen, when you have less than a 5% of finding a mafia among those 6. Wow wtf fusion? Huge oversight on your behalf... There is a 1/6% chance of one of those people being mafia. I took the names from the list where there are KNOWN MAFIA and analysed them because everyone is so hung up over these lists. If you want to link eddie to luck, be my guest. imo he very well could be Lostyourskills (as he was lucky on night two and now is growing more habitual) but cmon fusion, offer SOME analysis insted of half baked quasi-conjecture. "WOW THERE IS LUCK IN DAY 2 OMG" doesn't get us anywhere, take it that step further - how does it link to someone? etcetcetc The fact that eddie "half-panicked" and not "panicked" is enough to create doubt around your attack i think. Furthermore, it fits the plotline that they need to his yogurt some time so he can flip the switch. he half-panicked and not full-panicked so now he is valiant? Looking at a macroscopic picture of eddie rather than a microscopic.
You've always analysed based on the microscope, great, more power to you. I generally analyse on the macroscope and get a general picture. So far im 2-1 in my "100% mafia" lists; i'm yet to see anything from you yet 
Let's start right now.
One of my initial suspects for eddie was lostyourskills after day 1 (chuiu had lost his mayoral skills). Now, however, it seems that eddies luck has turned into skill ala his quote. your opinion please?
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
ok, seeing as you can comprehend the statistiscs
If aznvaliance is mafia then what does that mean?
IF evilmonkey is mafia then what does that mean?
Assuming you, imderek and alventenie are innocent what does that mean?
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ok
WITHDRAW VOTES FROM AZNVALIANCE
today we should be voting seifu + evilmonkey unless someone has any objections?
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On April 11 2008 15:27 Ace wrote:
Hotzot must have just changed then.
Plexa should be changing soon. yes ive just been caught up in the discussion of various points with people
changing now
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
Given the lull in mafia activity, now is a good time to repost this
How to catch Mafia 101
By Plexa
Teamliquid Final Edits
When pinning mafia to clues there a number of factors one must consider;
 Clues take a single point from a player and extrapolate it out into a thematic idea.
Example one; d.arkive had his profile picture linking to "DC" and the mysterious device. That single image was extrapolated into a thematic use of electricity and a recurring device. One feature -> Mafia theme
Example two; Queasy had no information in his profile at all, thus the only clue could come from his name - Queasy. By definition Queasy means feeling sick. This definition was extrapolated into a thematic "sickly appearance" of sidewinder. One feature -> Mafia theme
Example three; Links aren't always clearcut, Quesidilla from Mafia 1 had a in his profile picture a sign saying "Real men proxy". This quote was extrapolated into the thematic strength/close quarters engagements with his character in mafia one - a hard clue but still; One feature -> Mafia theme
 Players with many connections to a possible clue are not mafia.
This overlaps with point one, but it really needs to be emphasized.
Example 1; Ghar had many clues pertaining to him (e.g the Mayoral campaign, various clue references) and there was a really strong case for him being mafia. However, as the clues weren't pertaining to a single defining feature of him - he was innocent and we lynched him.
Example 2; Shadowdrgn had a number of references/dual meanings of his name and profile which linked nicely to Mr Blonde. However there was simply too stronger connection between the two - and sadly (as we learned) he too turned out to be town.
Its important to remember this as it allows many people to be instantly discarded from being Mafia
 Never mix traits up between mafia
Unlike the first game, these clues are pertain to one mafia only. For instance the thematic idea of gazes meeting (before day 4) was linked to two different mafia therefore is NOT a thematic connection to a mafia; merely a coincidence.
 Mafia codenames have no relevance to the player.
The names are derived from various Tarentino movies and hence purely placeholders. This is important when you look at characters like Mr Pink in relation to HeRoS)PiNK and the like who have pink in their name. The connection is purely fictitious therefore avoid it at all times.
Great, now we have a basic understanding of how these clues work, so how do we apply them? There are two methods, i identified Queasy using one, and d.arkive using the other so both are valid methods.
Take a player, analyse his profile for possible themes that could arise
This is how i caught d.arkive. I saw his profile and checked out his varying bits of information. Keeping in mind a vague idea of Mafia traits (e.g. Taipan Snakes use of "direct current") his picture eventually clicked with me. DC, direct current. Upon investigating the connection further - everything could be extrapolated from the picture; mafia identified
Take a mafia role, analyse the traits against various profiles
This is how i caught Queasy. Thinking about Sidewinder i knew that there would be a clue linking to sickness. After checking out a number of profiles i came to the conclusion that the most relevant clue to sickness was indeed Queasy - and hence it transpired that he was sidewinder.
Both of these methods are suited for particular situations. I'll do an example, analysing two confirmed innocent players - myself and TranceStorm. I will analyse myself using method one, and trancestorm using method two with the mafia Taipan Snake.
Plexa
Name: No meaning what so ever, no definitions, no abstract meanings no nothing. (origins actually come from the number "Googalplex" taking the plex at the end and adding an A, but anyone who gets that is a freak)
Signature: Clues possibly deriving from being a fan of someone, admiration perhaps? Progamer references are unlikely to be clues thus can be disregarded. Also perhaps a clue linking to the blogs - perhaps writing utencils?
Profile: Picture is of Plexa standing in from of the Tan Tien Buddha in Hong Kong thus perhaps some religious connection or perhaps a connection to asia
Rationalisation
Using the absolute clue hypothesis (see Clue analysis 201) clues must pertain to the entire section of the profile. Thus, as the signature has two very different focii a combination of fanboyism and blogging has no connections to any of the mafia profiles. Similarly when analyzing the picture clue we can reject any asian connections as there are far too many clues like that about hence we should focus on finding a religious theme - which is absent from mafia.
Hence Plexa is innocent.
TranceStorm
+ Show Spoiler [Taipan Snake] +He quickly ran through the yard towards his car parked out front but The Wolf and Taipan Snake had followed his near suicidal jump and were on him quick. Taipan Snake automatically knocked him to the ground and proceeded to kick him, being unarmed at the time.
They both stood up in a haste and Neax went to call the police. The phone line was dead. goldenkrnboi pulled out his cell phone and began dialing when it began glitching on him. He kept trying but dropped the phone and gave up when he noticed the rest of the electronics in the house going haywire. They both grouped up in the room and decided to head out to investigate, possibly even try a neighbors phone when they noticed a Taipan Snake operating what dawned on them must be some sort of electronic jamming device
Next door French_Toast was grabbing a midnight snack. He was headed to his computer room to check his email one last time before going to bed when he noticed all the batteries to some of his electronics have been removed and tossed on the floor. He bent down to pick them up and was just about done when Taipan Snake charged into him and knocked him to the ground. As if the last couple events weren't out of the blue enough for him French_Toast found himself being dragged to the nearest window. Eddie smashed the glass of the window and Taipan Snake grabbed French_Toast's head and they both used the remaining broken glass in the window pane to stab his neck with. It wasn't until they threw him through the window and he landed on his neighbors lawn darts did French_Toast die though.
Eddie and Taipan Snake walked around the corner. "Oh I see you have friends" said Empyrean, now realized how screwed he was. "Yeah they're pretty cool guys, always ready to help" said Enigma and with that he and Eddie charged at Empyrean and proceeded to hold him to the ground. Taipan Snake walked up slowly and with a strange device fired out a direct current of electricity which proceeded to fry every inch of Empyrean.
- Seems to be unarmed (not associated with weapons)
-> Used broken glass recently
-> Used a taser like device
- Electronics connection
-> Thematic disabling of electronics
-> Thematic use of electricity (DC?)
When we glance over at TranceStorm profile and try to match it to the mafia we get;
Name: You have an interesting juxtaposition of tranquility against ferocity thus you would expect some kind of explosive mafia, which is calm then erupts in a quick flurry. The alternative is to have links to a Storm - which only somewhat applies
Signature: Blank
Profile: Blank
As we are looking for an Electricity connection, the Storm (and hence ID) don't really apply to this aspect of Taipan. Also, the juxtaposition of the name is also lacking from Taipan - hence it is fairly safe to assume that TranceStorm is not Taipan Snake and hence Trancestorm is not mafia.
Well there you have it, happy analysing! I encourage anyone and everyone to start analysing clues for yourself. It's really easy, and with this outline the town should be hitting mafia in no time. Expect to see an updated list of profiles very shortly!!
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
Lysithea you profile picture is so cool  where did you get it from
oh wow you stole my 5200th post haha
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it doesn't change anything, ~opz~ is unlikely to be mafia anyway
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On April 11 2008 17:30 Bockit wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 16:49 Plexa wrote:
As we are looking for an Electricity connection, the Storm (and hence ID) don't really apply to this aspect of Taipan. Also, the juxtaposition of the name is also lacking from Taipan - hence it is fairly safe to assume that TranceStorm is not Taipan Snake and hence Trancestorm is not mafia. While I agree with pretty much all your methodology I don't think you can make the claim "because the juxtaposition doesn't exist then it increases his chance of not being mafia" and for proof I bring quesadilla, whose *only* connection to the clues was his signature, his name wasn't relevant but it was still him. Fair enough it turned out TranceStorm was townie, and the rest of his stuff doesn't match up as well as it seems people were thinking, as you've pointed out. I'm just trying to avoid us falling into the trap of saying "This clue fits X but Y doesn't fit therefore it can't be him" when we've seen that this can be the case. But yeah I agree with pretty much everything else you've been saying. Let's see some red by nightfall. fair enough, i would argue that the juxtaposition isn't a central argument but is something which increases the chance of him being innocent. But the clue should match pretty seamlessly to one particular profile trait of the mafia
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From here what we do is think;- Which mafia was evilmonkey, i think he was mr blonde but i might be wrong
- Ace and co are patching the leak in the circle of trust so that should be covered
- We look at the next set of clues and move from there
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my little circle of detectives are cutting down that list as best we can - we hope to be able to squeeze the list to isolate the mafia in the list the best
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While we're killing time...
What's everyones opinion on Lostyourskills?
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
I'm rather out of "mafia" at the moment - celebrating my two year anniversary this weekend ^^ but the analysis you're doing looks really good.
EvilMonkey is Mr Blonde, check out the second night "swooped down" - seeing as we intially pinned this trait to Shadowdrgn as the dragon could swoop - the monkey swooping fits perfectly. Mr Blonde perfectly fits EvilMonkey's name (just check the clues yourself, i know you're capable ^^) and we can safely assume thats who he is.
As a side note for everyone, Chuiu seems to love pinning mafia to names - and that makes our lives quite easy. So far we've got evilmonkey and queasy on their name connections. This should be our first port of call when analysing clues in the future (imo), if you can pin clues to a name then bring it up and we just need to check if it fits (like in the L situation  !) and then we can proceed to act on it
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I feel that the spoinka clue is a little too streched, but not enough to disregard it entirely - let me do a quick check of names
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On April 13 2008 13:05 HeRoS)Pink wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2008 13:00 Plexa wrote:
I feel that the spoinka clue is a little too streched, but not enough to disregard it entirely - let me do a quick check of names Well im just throwing stuff that could help if i get killed And thats great
I can't see any obvious name connections to Mr Red... however the name DamageControl stuck out at me =/ i don't know why
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On April 13 2008 13:08 fusionsdf wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2008 11:25 Camlito wrote:
[3,31]Next door French_Toast was grabbing a midnight snack.
Do clues like this still work in this game? (this clue relates to midnightgladius). we dont know. There are two camps. One says that all non mafia sentences are filler, and we should only look at clues and traits that are linked to specific mafia. The other says that, looking at the last mafia game, clues are to be found even in "extra" sentences, and we should look for a repeat of clues, in the form of extraneous and out of place words, and not just at specific mafia behaviour. And there is a third camp which suggests the two camps are not mutually inclusive
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
*doh* fail
scratch that third camp
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oh hey MTF is not necessarily innocent anymore!
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If i die can you guys hold a state funeral?
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by the way, my team of expert detectives have uncovered a interesting fact
Either MidnightGladius is Mafia
or MTF is mafia
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EPT
