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The Mysterious Mr. Blue
Quite a while ago, several people speculated that Mr. Blue was a lurker. I don't feel like digging up all the posts now, but MasterOfChaos may have been the first to make this connection, although not the only one.
While this may have been speculative when it was first brought up, at this point, I think we can regard the lurker connection as practically confirmed. Skim through all of Mr. Blue's kills (handily quoted for you a couple of posts above). His themes seem to be: 1) Kills with blades, often a row of them (chainsaw, buzz saw), sometimes killing multiple things simultaneously (smurfingchobo's dogs), although his attacks can be dodged (aZnvaLiaNce) 2) Is rarely seen. These two things come up again and again, and fit the lurker motif to a T. (This may be what Chuiu meant by "a hidden agenda".)
At the time, lurkers were connected to two different people: jtan and CDRdude (CDRdude's sig has now changed, but it used to be "sometimes a lurker has to unburrow..."), both of them still in the game.
In this post, araav made a strong circumstantial case for CDRdude: BUT let's take the CDRdude guy, his posts and behaviour during the game are suspicious... read here - http://teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=69736#7especially this: Show nested quote +On March 18 2008 15:23 CDRdude wrote:Awesome, I just got my role PM! It's on now! ok, we know he's not blue, so why would he be so excited about it? and this: 8. CDRdude CLEARLY NOT MAFIA btw, he has promted randombum, some people voted for randombum based on CDR's promotion Show nested quote +
randombum:
I kind of liked his mass PM, it showed effort. I'm not so sure about his voting record in game 1 though. He voted with 100% accuracy (voted FS for mayor, and voted to lynch mafia the only times he voted). He seems to have quite the good record for rooting out mafia. I don't know if he's our number one choice for mayor, but it shows that he's putting some effort into it.
araav makes three points there. His second, I don't find especially convincing, and the third has to be taken with a grain of salt, considering that CDRdude kinda promoted all of the candidates and ended up voting for Ace himself. The first point is also explainable (he was excited about the game being on), but it does seem somewhat suspicious.
If you read through CDRdude's early posts (quoted in araav's blog, linked to in the quote from araav above), he was very involved in the mayoral election, making three lengthy posts (and some smaller ones) about the pros and cons of various candidates and their platforms, although later in the game he fell silent. This has an eery resonance with the only words that we have ever heard Mr. Blue speak, at the very beginning: "Lets just hope the right mayor gets elected, that would speed things up as the town declares martial law."
Incidentally, CDRdude is on the Showtime! list. 1/4 of those are Mafia. If you consider that I have been relatively cleared by making the case for BWdero to be lynched (would I do that if I were Mafia, considering that there were only 4 of us left and no one had mentioned his name yet?), then it's 1/3.
Summary: until I see a better case for someone else, I plan to vote for CDRdude next lynch. Even if he is innocent, Mr. Blue is almost certainly a lurker (which would probably mean jtan if it isn't CDR).
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On July 13 2008 13:17 L wrote:
And as a sidenote: Mafia has NEVER had all twenty members active. If we did, we'd have had random in the mayorship, and we'd have had a complete list of bodyguards to slaughter on day 1.... Not to rely too much on the word of a dead mafioso, but L did help confirm Bockit's guilt with one of his zombie posts, so he may have let something slip again.
If we take L's post at face value, some of the Mafia were inactive at the time of the election and did not vote for anyone at all. This late in the game, I don't know whether that's even useful information, but it may be worth checking up on that first vote count.
Wow, I just spent like 2 hours posting in this thread. I'll check back on Day 20, hopefully.
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Following up on L's hint: these are the mayoral votes for all current possible Mafia. I also threw in the votes of those known mafiosi who did not vote for randombum. Italics=Mandalor list (1 mafioso); plain text=non-Mandalor (2 mafiosi). Hopefully I didn't mess any of this up.
+ Show Spoiler +Ace
ahrara_
CDRdude
Mandalor
araav
qrs
RowdierBob
Empyrean
NatsuTerran
ghar
Ziel
Last Romantic
d.arkive
randombum
Lysithea
Ninja4ever
iNfuNdiBuLuM
Dr.Dragoon
Abstained
HotZhot
Didn't vote
Romance_us
SoMuchBetter
Puosu
KF91
Kuja900
KorvspaD
jtan
DTDominion
BuGzlToOnl
ieatkids5
randombum
SpiritoftheTuna
Evilmonkey
This does seem to confirm that most of the Mafia who didn't vote for randombum didn't vote at all. Mandalor had a particular reason for voting for Ace, as he wanted to infiltrate the inner circle posing as a detective. Voting for Ace may have been intended to help his cover. With that exception, it seems unlikely that other mafiosi voted for Ace, as he was the one candidate standing between randombum and the mayorship. It was quite close at the end, too (30/28 by Chuiu's count), and judging by their last-minute vote switches, the Mafia were quite seriously trying to get randombum in as mayor, not just pardoner. By these lights, perhaps jtan/iNfuNdiBuLuM are better candidates for Mr. Blue/the Showtime! mafioso than CDRdude. Either way, we'll find out pretty soon, no doubt.
updated
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On July 17 2008 19:07 RowdierBob wrote:
Epic if I make it through this.
I haven't actually been a participant, but if anyone requires me to vote, PM me. It's not epic at all to make it through this by not being a participant. It's the easiest way to do it.
Of course you should vote. Vote for one of the people on the Showtime! list or for jtan.
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The Showtime! list
Once upon a time, we still had detectives. Our town was united, one nation under Ace, and Showtime! was making an ass of himself and ticking everybody off. Pretty soon it got to the point where a bunch of people voted to lynch him: 11, to be exact. (vote count can be found here). Ace had his watchful eye on the whole affair, and quietly dispatched a detective to check on these voters. Only one of them was Mafia. (The Mafia have their own ways of dealing with irksome townies, which they did a few days later.)
We return to the present day: Through murders and mislynchings, slowly that merry band of voters has been whittled down, and of the original 11 voters, only 4 now remain:
qrs
ahrara_
CDRdude
iNfuNdiBuLuM
The mafioso still lurks among them. But who can it be?
qrs: Should be cleared by his recent pointing of the finger at BWdero. For the Mafia, there would be very little to gain from this, and a lot to lose. On the downside, one of the four remaining mafiosi, one who had not yet been suspected, was lynched. On the upside, perhaps qrs is solidly established as a townie, but this cannot last for more than a few lynches anyway. I am on the Showtime! list--if I were Mafia, this would be conclusively revealed after the other three were lynched.
This leaves CDRdude, ahrara_, and iNfuNdiBuLuM. Of the three, I was leaning slightly towards CDRdude based on the lurker connection (Mr. Blue), but this was far from conclusive: the lurker might be jtan. Recently, however, another avenue of inquiry was raised by a chance remark of L's:On July 13 2008 13:17 L wrote:
And as a sidenote: Mafia has NEVER had all twenty members active. If we did, we'd have had random in the mayorship.
Well that was an interesting point. Looking back at the mayoral election, no less than three mafiosi switched their votes from Ace to randombum in a last-ditch effort to get their candidate elected. It's fair to assume that most active mafiosi would be voting for randombum at that point. Maybe a couple of them would not, to avoid putting all of their eggs in one basket. But the one candidate that no good mafioso (with the possible exception of fake-detective Mandalor) should have been voting for was Ace, the man who ended up beating randombum in a very narrow election. Here's the list of who voted for whom on the Showtime! list:
qrs - araav
ahrara_ - Ace
CDRdude - Ace
iNfuNdiBuLuM - randombum
It still might be possible that ahrara_ or CDRdude is the mafioso. Perhaps they voted for Ace early and were inactive when the Mafia was making their big push. But if you look back at page 61, both of them were active right around that time. In fact, ahrara_ even said this: On March 20 2008 11:59 ahrara_ wrote:
Hey folks, it looks like the voting is split between randombum and Ace. Just to be sure, let's have a few people change their votes back to Ace so we don't end up with bum as a mayor by accident.
Summary: The circumstantial evidence has convinced me to vote for iNfuNdiBuLuM. As for which character he might be: with the propeller on his head, perhaps at night he flies around as Mr. Blonde. Mr. Blonde has been described as very fast--once Chuiu even used the word "jetted" to describe him. On day 2 he was hanging out on the ceiling, of all places. Also he has come out of nowhere, and once he made his escape out of a window. Maybe he can fly.
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On July 18 2008 01:52 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:qrs, this was my reasoning for voting for randombum: Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 14:10 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
I vote for randombum
Ace is far in the lead, and that's a good thing. But Empyrean in the Pardoner position worries me to no end. By voting for randombum, I hope to oust Empyrean from the seat of power which he potentially holds.
on Empyrean, briefly:
1. his roleclaiming puts the town on the spot to make a decision, and we also cannot verify this roleclaim for the time being. this is the biggest worry i have.
2. it makes him a target for mafia and their saboteur, basically it's free information for them.
3. ace doesn't like his ideas, we could have another FS/Tracil snafu.
4. a detective might have to waste a role check on Empyrean due to his claims, losing even more for the town. Basically i didn't trust Empyrean, and was sure Ace would hold the mayorship without my vote. Randombum was the only other candidate with enough votes to overcome Empyrean (nobody was voting for ghar etc.) I know that this only carries the weight of my word (which probably isn't much) but I also voted for him early on when Empyrean was still around even with Ace and nobody had bandwagoned onto him yet.
It wasn't just that you voted for randombum, but that CDRdude voted for Ace. Also, I suppose that this doesn't entirely help: On June 22 2008 06:33 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
well at least suresh0t is active. i have never even seen romance_us post, so i'd rather give the benefit of the doubt to someone who at least has a possibility of being an active townie. Still, I don't say that you're certainly Mafia. Maybe CDRdude was offline at just the wrong time when the Mafia was pushing for randombum. Or maybe the Mafia was afraid that too many people switching their votes at the last second would look suspicious. In any case, as long as the town lynches someone from the showtime list, it's on the right track. If we don't get the mafioso this lynch, we'll surely get him the next.
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On July 18 2008 14:27 ydg wrote:Show nested quote +...(Though I think the Sedative is important) "Mr. Orange had just finished cutting off unsoundlogics house from the rest of the world when unsoundlogic came out the back door and spotted him." "Ace quickly grabbed the phone to call for backup but it was too late as Mr. Orange had landed a dagger right on the phone line cutting him off. " " Mr. Orange had the help of Eddie as he went after Vharox. They were following behind Vharox as he was leaving a bar late at night. Once Vharox got his door open Eddie came from behind and grabbed him in restraint. Mr. Orange smashed an empty beer bottle over Vharox's head and it shattered into pieces and made Vharox flinch back in pain. He broke free of Eddie and charged into Mr. Orange knocking him on his side. Eddie tried to restrain Vharox again but had no luck as he fought him back. Vharox started inching his way to his cell phone to call the cops when Mr. Orange was back on his feet this time with a more lethal weapon. He stabbed Vharox in the arm with the beer bottle and then again in the chest. Vharox fell to the ground and Mr. Orange finished him off with a few more well placed stabs." Nothing there about it, though there is the BROKEN bottle, but nothing broke in Day 20. "Two men, Eddie and Mr. Orange were holding a man to the ground with their legs and pulling as hard as they could on his arms." Nothing there either though it is just one line. "useLess was sitting at home just watching TV when he heard a strange sound from outside his window. He went over to investigate and Mr. Orange jumped right through it and almost knocked useLess down as he flew past him." There is FLEW past him, maybe that is flying? "Mr. Orange finally put an end to his bellows and shot Meta in the head, ending his life." "an end to his bellows" is very suspicious writing; maybe instead Orange has something to do with lack of sound, as Plexa said? You can't hear anything in space? "Mr. Orange came down with a pair of wire clippers in hand and bashed Dinmsab on the back with them." Maybe "came down" refers to flying as well? If there are no other candidates for Orange, perhaps Lysithea? Moon of Jupiter, also, profile picture is of a window-looking object. But I suppose it all depends on this next lynch. He also voted for randombum. Didn't vote for crazie-penguin (voted for Dr. Dragoon), L (didn't vote), voted for LostYourSkills and not for ieatkids5, didn't vote for clazziquai (nonvote), but he voted for Unforgiven . EDIT: Ace posted this: On May 27 2008 16:45 Ace wrote:
Mandalor list
Keep in mind everything you have just read. Now look at the reduced Mandalor list:
shallow
zbir
ocz3c
romance_us
lysithea
randombum
jimtudor
bwdero
we are sure that 4 of these guys are Mafia.
Why that is the reduced Mandalor list, it has passed my mind. However; shallow
zbir
ocz3c romance_us lysithea randombum
jimtudor
bwderoThat makes 1/2 mafia, either romance or lysithea. Yeah, Mr. Orange seems to have something to do with cutting people off from the outside world. Cutting phone lines, stopping people from using cell phones, cutting off escape. That might possibly connect with space, as you suggest. Worth looking around to see if anyone else fits that theme, too.
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On July 19 2008 01:17 ydg wrote:
I still think we should lynch CDRdude.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is green, then we have no new info, except that the Showtime list is reduced.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is red, then we know that CDRdude is green and the rest of the Mandalor list is green.
However;
If CDRdude is green, then we know that the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list are green.
If CDRdude is red, then we know that of the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list, one is mafia, which reduces the list.
Thus, we only get good information if iNfuNdiBuLuM turns red, while if CDRdude turns either red or green, we get information.
Hmm, you have a point: I hadn't noticed that. Still, in practical terms, I don't think it makes a huge difference: if we lynch CDR and he turns green, the next lynch would probably be infundibulum; if we lynch infundibulum and he turns green, the next lynch would probably be CDR. After that, we'll have our information anyway, so the main question is simply which one is most likely to be Mafia: CDRdude or jtan/infundibulum. It's close to a toss-up, IMO.
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I remember ahrara's profile picture. Just a picture of him: the one that you can still see in the TL gallery. Re infundibulum, if he turns out to be Mafia, I would link him to Mr. Blonde, as I said earlier. Reasoning: the propeller on his head=can fly=Mr. Blonde (speed, "jetted", escaped through a window, sometimes hangs out on the ceiling).
On July 19 2008 05:22 Bill307 wrote:
Also, recall Plexa's guide to Mafia clue analysis. He stated very clearly that exactly one aspect of a mafioso is used to generate the clues for them! E.g. if someone's profile pic is used to generate clues, then their name, quote, etc. will be ignored.
Plexa was a very good clue analyst, but he was not right about everything, and I'm still not sure where he got this from. Take suresh0t for instance: the main clue against him related to his name, but there were a couple of things that seemed to relate to his signature and his picture. Maybe all of those other 'clues' were really nothing, but unless Chuiu has said somewhere that he only uses one aspect of a mafioso to generate clues, I don't think we can assume it.
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In my opinion, jtan is the surer lynch. He's been a suspect forever, his voting record does not inspire confidence, and he's the only possibility left that we know of who relates to a lurker. There is virtually no doubt at this point that Mr. Blue is a lurker.
However, you guys have made a pretty good case against KF91 as well.
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On July 21 2008 02:53 RtS)Night[Mare wrote:
edit:
[undead howl]
I BLOODY TOLD YOU PAGES AGO THAT HE WAS THE MAFIOSOOOOOO I JUST LINKED HIM INCORRECTLY
[/undead howl]
But if the mafioso you tried to link him with wasn't really him, it's only a coincidence that he happened to be a different one, no?
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You have the wrong kill for Day 19. Mr. Blue is + Show Spoiler +Wind swiftly blew down from overhead as SiZ.Fantasy left the local 7-11 with his bright blue berry slushie in hand. Little did he know his life was in danger as he walked down the street towards his house. His soon-to-be killer jumped from roof to roof waiting for the right moment to strike. When SiZ.Fantasy accidentally dropped the lid to his drink was that moment. He bent over to pick it up, being the good little law abiding citizen he was he, but never got up because as SiZ.Fantasy was doing so a blade sliced him up like confetti.
Anyway, it's quite clear that Mr. Blue is a lurker: Day 6: chainsaw = row of blades = lurker spines. Second attack is dodged: lurker is the only unit whose attack can be dodged. Day 7: umbrella tip = blade again. Day 9: Mr. Blue = ambushing to cut off retreat: somewhat lurker-like. Day 10: row of blades kill multiple things simultaneously: killer is not seen. Day 11: blades (of a different sort); killer not seen. Day 12: row of blades; killer not seen. Day 18: hidden agenda=not seen. Day 19: blade kill; not seen. Day 20: row of blades; killer not seen. FWIW, MoC and others noticed this theme long before there was so much evidence for it.
edit: ah, I didn't see your DT theory. That would also be a good fit for blades + not seen.
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The EndOn July 21 2008 08:20 Bill307 wrote:I think the odds that KF91 is mafia must be like 99% or more, now. qrs and ydg, do you guys agree that we should lynch KF91 first?
Honestly, I don't think it matters anymore. We've pretty much wrapped it up now. KF91 is presumably Mr. Orange. Mr. Blue is probably jtan (rows of blades and missed attacks fit lurkers better than DTs); if he turns out to be innocent, DTDominion is our backup. No way Mr. Blue is an ultralisk; that would not fit the stealth theme in the least. I don't see HotZhot as a major suspect, although I know that you do (if the primary suspects flip green). In the worst case scenario that we are wrong about everything, we know without any doubt at all that the two remaining mafiosi come from this list:+ Show Spoiler +HotZhot
Dr.Dragoon
Puosu
KF91
Kuja900
KorvspaD
Ziel
jtan
RowdierBob
DTDominion
BuGzlToOnl
Not much more to say. This is probably my last post.
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Well, I wasn't going to post again, but since I'm directly addressed...
1) The reasons I prefer lurkers to DTs for Mr. Blue:
-chainsaws and buzzsaws = rows of blades
-aznvaliance dodges his attack
-he often remains unseen--but not always
2) Large machinery: Don't think it's a clue, personally:
-the largeness can be explained as a way for him to pick up cars, slice into houses (thus killing without being seen)
-if it is a clue, we have yet to tie it to anyone, DTDominion included. edit: wrote that before bill's last post, which offers a rather strained connection to Dominion
3) If jtan turns out to be innocent, we just turn around and lynch DTDominion. We lose one night. At this point, no big deal.
I don't mind voting for KF91 first, though.
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On July 21 2008 12:35 Bill307 wrote:
... Okay, honestly are you fucking stupid?
...Moreover, what the fuck kind of retarded argument is "we haven't matched it to anybody therefore it's not a clue"? Again, are you fucking stupid?
...You know, for a sec it seemed like you were actually helping the town. But now you're just going back to the way you were the entire game: being a fucking retard. Fine, don't post anymore. If you're so stupid as to think that large machines is not a clue, then you'd just be holding us back, anyway.
On July 21 2008 12:40 Bill307 wrote:Show nested quote +2) Large machinery: Don't think it's a clue, personally:
[...]
-if it is a clue, we have yet to tie it to anyone, DTDominion included. I still cannot believe someone could use such an obviously flawed argument. Honestly, I have no respect for qrs, now. That is by far the stupidest thing I have read in this entire topic.
Relax.
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On July 22 2008 07:31 Bill307 wrote:
The problem with qrs is that he is impatient: he links a handful of clues to a person, and then that's it for him: he is 100% convinced. He doesn't push for the kind of thorough, all-encompassing clue analysis that we've seen from the superior detectives in this game, such as Plexa.
There are so many more clues in those posts that qrs ignores. I point them out and he ignores them, his mind set in stone. Granted I was too harsh on him earlier: I get like that when I see people say mind-blowingly stupid things. I also said some things that I now realize were wrong. My apologies.
Without further ado, I will show you all the PROPER, THOROUGH way to connect Mr. Blue to jtan.
*sigh*. Can't you just say "I was wrong"? Nearly everything you have said in that post has been said before, by me or others (like in this summary). You added the excavator connection, and the behind-the-depot thing. Also a strained analogy between cliffs and locked windows and ramps and back doors; also an mistaken connection with a flying object (that was California Mountain Snake's metal disk). As for the 'clue' that caused you to blow your gasket in the first place, when I politely disagreed with it--it looks like you have decided that giant machinery is not the point after all.
You weren't just "too harsh on me earlier". You were completely off the mark and made yourself look like a moron. But even now that you admit I was right after all, you try to spin it somehow to make it like you were still right all along, and I was the one who was arguing against jtan's being Mr. Blue.
I realize that you are enthusiastic about the game and you want to contribute. And it's not your fault that most of the analysis happened before you came into the picture (I was not the first one to identify jtan). But do try to tone down your ego a little bit, please. Try not to get personal, and if you're wrong, admit it with good grace. Play nice. 
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On July 22 2008 11:10 Bill307 wrote:
That's a lot easier to do when the person you're disagreeing with didn't just say they were going to abandon the game and stop posting. That was very infuriating. It was like a big "Fuck you guys: my mind's made up and I'm done."
OK, thanks for explaining, actually. I didn't realize how my post sounded to you. (I'm pretty bad about not realizing what my posts sound like sometimes.) I was taken aback when you blew up at me seemingly out of nowhere.
Now that I know what ticked you off, I sincerely apologize. I didn't mean to belittle your analysis, or say that no matter what, I was finished, even if you had come up with convincing evidence against someone else. All I meant was that I thought that between everyone, we had IDed the remaining Mafia, and there was nothing more for me to say. If you wanted to keep going and make sure every t was crossed, more power to you. I apologize for the unintentional insult.
Hope everything is cleared up now. GG.
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On August 05 2008 10:27 Ace wrote:
qrs was a jackass though. He was never really helpful to me when I was alive, and pretty much only became useful once everyone else was dead and almost all of the work was done.
No, you were the jackass and are still being one. You've gone out of your way to personally attack me time and again, when I have not said anything that could even be construed as provocation except for one or two posts months ago (and even then, I spoke but truth). Really, Ace, it's time to drop it.
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I'm not going to get into a silly argument with you about whether I was a "horrible townie" or a good one. It's just a game, for heaven's sake, and you're getting far too worked up about it. If it makes you happy, I concede everything: all of my posts were misguided, and everyone I argued with was right. Now put your toys back into the pram, OK?
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I nominate araav as most unheralded townie. His coding was very helpful.
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EPT
