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Sweet Summer Mafia - Page 23

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 00:20 GMT
#4662
On June 15 2024 09:18 Vivax wrote:
I told Trfel to look at my filter size to figure me out and he shrugged it off.

Funny that it always worked
Yes, your filter size does indicate that you could be town. But at some point, I think we need to weigh the other reasons vs that one reason.

I am really, really reluctant to townread someone for one single reason unless I am absolutely sure.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 00:33 GMT
#4683
I hope I'm not wrong on this But I absolutely could be. I hope it's not the throw of the century.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 01:01 GMT
#4716
In all honesty, I think if you have a 29 page filter, there should be something in there that says you are town besides the fact that your filter is 29 pages.

With respect to the filter length argument, I also believe that taking game length into consideration is important, which is why I prefer to use percentage of game posts that belong to someone as a metric. Quick math suggests that Vivax had 9.3% of the posts in Endures II and 12.5% of the posts here. So, a little different, but is it too different? Also, for a more accurate analysis I'd have to remove off-topic posts, but I don't have time for that now.

I'm sorry if this is wrong, it's just the best idea that I have right now.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 01:03 GMT
#4717
On June 15 2024 10:01 scott31337 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 15 2024 09:54 AlphaZero wrote:
Does anyone know why town Scott refuses to reevaluate his reads?


What's there to re-evaluate on you?
Dude, are you serious?

AlphaZero's playstyle itself has completely changed from day 1 to day 2-3. His reads have been changing as well. His pushes have been changing.

Maybe to you, there's nothing to re-evaluate, because your only reason he is mafia is that he thinks you are mafia.

Convincing.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 01:13 GMT
#4723
On June 15 2024 10:07 scott31337 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 15 2024 10:03 Trfel wrote:
On June 15 2024 10:01 scott31337 wrote:
On June 15 2024 09:54 AlphaZero wrote:
Does anyone know why town Scott refuses to reevaluate his reads?


What's there to re-evaluate on you?
Dude, are you serious?

AlphaZero's playstyle itself has completely changed from day 1 to day 2-3. His reads have been changing as well. His pushes have been changing.

Maybe to you, there's nothing to re-evaluate, because your only reason he is mafia is that he thinks you are mafia.

Convincing.


And he keeps voting for townies (In my opinion). So there's that too.
That hasn't change today.
To be fair you asked why you should re evaluate. I gave you reasons. Another reason why you shouldn't doesn't invalidate the reasons I gave.

But whatever, you clearly made up your mind long ago.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 01:18 GMT
#4729
On June 15 2024 10:17 AlphaZero wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 15 2024 10:16 die_meatbaby wrote:
On June 15 2024 10:07 Vivax wrote:
Ok then.

Good night.

I have high hopes you will correctly lynch mocsta and dmb without me or change your mind again.

I just get too attached or second guess myself to wagon them with you on two opportunities. I‘m weak. My mind needs a rest, and worst case I get to discord with cool folk

guys is this really mafia? Is this fake?


Does it remind you of the last time he was mislynched?

You were mafia remember?

It does not remind me of that, that time he was trying to dump reads and he was really salty about it.

So I don't believe in scumslips but did you just slip that this is a mislynch?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 01:19 GMT
#4731
at a red light driving, can't play but will think
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 03:02 GMT
#4778
Dang, my bad Sorry all.

Thought it was worth a try. If die_meatbaby is mafia then it's the biggest throw of all time
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 05:53 GMT
#4780
Will be around until I go to sleep. No idea when that will be though. Let me know if anyone wants to talk. On the bright side, maybe the tension in the shenanigans gives us more info than a quiet lynch? But lynching scum is always best so idk ><

Part of me wants to trust Vivax's read that die_meatbaby is mafia, but at the same time, it didn't feel like a mafia lynch. So much silence going into the deadline didn't feel right at all to me. But if I ignore the thread activity analysis, I could still absolutely see die_meatbaby being mafia here. I'm not sure if it makes perfect sense for die_meatbaby to be mafia with sandroba but I also can't rule it out.

Going to keep trying to figure out if die_meatbaby is mafia here.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 06:16 GMT
#4782
Sure, I think he's mafia. You?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 06:18 GMT
#4783
Like, either scott31337 is mafia, or everything I think and have ever thought this game is wrong.

Unfortunately, the latter is an extremely likely possibility >< It's just challenging practically, I don't have another way with which to approach things.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 06:22 GMT
#4784
Also it's kinda funny, if you lynch someone you have a whisperer chat with, you can keep using it, but they can't say anything back. This would be useful if I were mafia, I could taunt Vivax and rub it in his face and he couldn't do anything about it

But as it is, all I can do is apologize for being bad. Ah well.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 06:31 GMT
#4787
On June 15 2024 15:25 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 15 2024 15:22 Trfel wrote:
Also it's kinda funny, if you lynch someone you have a whisperer chat with, you can keep using it, but they can't say anything back. This would be useful if I were mafia, I could taunt Vivax and rub it in his face and he couldn't do anything about it

But as it is, all I can do is apologize for being bad. Ah well.
he didn't help himself with all the politics

Maybe I'm bad town for saying this

If he did his list post of 6 points before he was going back and forth with you. It would be ok

The problem is. The way he went about trying to save dmb always had too much drama in to be sure if town motivated.. could just be IRL which feels mafia as it's not town either
Yeah, I had been more inclined to switch to scott31337 then Vivax. But Vivax posted and scott31337 didn't, unfortunately Vivax's posts made me want to lynch him more.

I want to at least respect Vivax's reads, particularly die_meatbaby being mafia. But die_meatbaby being mafia doesn't make perfect sense to me? Like it's far from unreasonable, but it doesn't make me feel like the game is coming together, you know?

Like one of those puzzle pieces that kinda fits but you're kinda forcing it and you're just not sure it's the right one.

I've been in die_meatbaby's filter for over an hour now and I haven't made any progress towards figuring it out.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 06:34 GMT
#4791
Not only are you sure die_meatbaby was mafia but you also know she's the roleblocker? That's next level.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 06:39 GMT
#4793
On June 15 2024 15:33 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 15 2024 15:31 Trfel wrote:
On June 15 2024 15:25 Mocsta wrote:
On June 15 2024 15:22 Trfel wrote:
Also it's kinda funny, if you lynch someone you have a whisperer chat with, you can keep using it, but they can't say anything back. This would be useful if I were mafia, I could taunt Vivax and rub it in his face and he couldn't do anything about it

But as it is, all I can do is apologize for being bad. Ah well.
he didn't help himself with all the politics

Maybe I'm bad town for saying this

If he did his list post of 6 points before he was going back and forth with you. It would be ok

The problem is. The way he went about trying to save dmb always had too much drama in to be sure if town motivated.. could just be IRL which feels mafia as it's not town either
Yeah, I had been more inclined to switch to scott31337 then Vivax. But Vivax posted and scott31337 didn't, unfortunately Vivax's posts made me want to lynch him more.

I want to at least respect Vivax's reads, particularly die_meatbaby being mafia. But die_meatbaby being mafia doesn't make perfect sense to me? Like it's far from unreasonable, but it doesn't make me feel like the game is coming together, you know?

Like one of those puzzle pieces that kinda fits but you're kinda forcing it and you're just not sure it's the right one.

I've been in die_meatbaby's filter for over an hour now and I haven't made any progress towards figuring it out.
so if you dive one player and can't read

Is that more likely town or Mafia?

I would say as a heuristic

If actively engaged, it's more.often town

Does dmb read as actively engaged?
Honestly, this is a weird situation for me. Usually when I spend a lot of time in someone's filter, I get a decent idea. Maybe it's wrong but I at least have a theory, you know?
On June 15 2024 15:36 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 15 2024 15:34 Trfel wrote:
Not only are you sure die_meatbaby was mafia but you also know she's the roleblocker? That's next level.
Well feeds into her being unlynchable so far
Maybe I differ from others but I don't value mafia roles very highly. IMO you play to keep the player in a better position alive every single time, regardless of who has which role. If they happen to have a good role, that's just a bonus.

Side note, I can't help but noticing that this setup includes potential for a mafia vigilante. I've never seen it actually happen but theoretically, mafia could be saving a vigilante shot, and then if we mislynch tomorrow, use it to close out the game without actually going to LYLO. That'd be brutal.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 06:51 GMT
#4796
Mafia vigilante you mean? Or town vigilante?

I really really wouldn't expect Oatsmaster to have been shot by a town vigilante. There's extremely little reason to shoot Oatsmaster there, and typically, the town vigilante claims after shooting. It just feels incredibly unlikely, not worth considering, and even if somehow this is what happened, the vigilante will eventually let us know.

If it's a mafia vigilante, how would we know? What happened to the night kill? Also, why would the mafia vigilante shoot Night 2, of all nights?

Like if we end up having a way to have blocked a night kill, maybe it's worth considering. But idk.

I've never actually seen a mafia vigilante hold their shot, I guess the thinking is that it's too risky because if something happens and you get lynched it'd be bad? I just think it'd be absolutely devastating to town to save the shot and use it to avoid LYLO if you are in the position to do so. Also a mafia vigilante in a 13 player game would be a weird choice. So I'm probably just being paranoid. But it's right there in the setup... Makes me want to just get two mafia lynches and avoid LYLO tbh.

If there was no mafia vigilante possible, I'd be happy to mislynch of course
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 06:57 GMT
#4799
On June 15 2024 15:55 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 10 2024 04:47 Koshi wrote:
On June 07 2024 12:50 scott31337 wrote:
On June 07 2024 12:45 Trfel wrote:
On June 07 2024 12:44 scott31337 wrote:
On June 07 2024 12:40 Trfel wrote:
The real question here is if we are lynching scott31337 today or waiting until tomorrow?


Go find the real mafia. Unless you already know who they are
It would be easier if you would stop pretending to be mafia

Why tell me to go find mafia when you can (presumably) do it yourself?


Scumslip

See you already know I'm "pretending" to be mafia. I already know I'm town.

Do you see me driving discussion? I've been looking since 10pm.

1) In the nested quote you see him playfully attacking Tfrel. Which is difficult to do as mafia. It has a good balance between get off me, + applying pressure to Tfrel to gauge a reaction.

2) Seeing the scumslip here is more likely to come from town reading and interpreting things to a maximum. As mafia things like this are way harder to do on the fly, if one is really good at playing mafia maybe it is possible, but the last part "I know I am town" is an unnecessarily lie at the end to make as mafia. I can't even explain properly why he added it at the end, but I think he tries to be witty with the truth but butchers the joke a bit.

3) He overestimates his own contributions to the thread but again, I can see a townie scott believing he is driving the town into victory more than a mafia scott bluffing.


(I will quote some more but this analysis should be teached at schools.)
this Scott town case on one post still holds though
What?

I don't really agree. Why would scott31337 as town, think that he caught me in a scumslip and then not vote for me until later but do so purely for that reason?

Also, I think the supposed scumslip is garbage and I wonder if it's possible for anyone as town to think that was a scumslip, but it's very difficult to be conclusive with that argument.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 06:58 GMT
#4800
On June 15 2024 15:56 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 15 2024 15:51 Trfel wrote:
Mafia vigilante you mean? Or town vigilante?

I really really wouldn't expect Oatsmaster to have been shot by a town vigilante. There's extremely little reason to shoot Oatsmaster there, and typically, the town vigilante claims after shooting. It just feels incredibly unlikely, not worth considering, and even if somehow this is what happened, the vigilante will eventually let us know.

If it's a mafia vigilante, how would we know? What happened to the night kill? Also, why would the mafia vigilante shoot Night 2, of all nights?

Like if we end up having a way to have blocked a night kill, maybe it's worth considering. But idk.

I've never actually seen a mafia vigilante hold their shot, I guess the thinking is that it's too risky because if something happens and you get lynched it'd be bad? I just think it'd be absolutely devastating to town to save the shot and use it to avoid LYLO if you are in the position to do so. Also a mafia vigilante in a 13 player game would be a weird choice. So I'm probably just being paranoid. But it's right there in the setup... Makes me want to just get two mafia lynches and avoid LYLO tbh.

If there was no mafia vigilante possible, I'd be happy to mislynch of course
mafia vig..that was what were talking about
I guess.

Honestly I don't think mafia vigilante should be possible in mini games, but oh well.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 07:01 GMT
#4802
Also I'd like to state for postgame credits (or rather, fewer postgame anticredits), that if AlphaZero had asked to lynch scott31337 instead of Vivax, I think that would have happened. I at least would have gone with him on it.

So when we lose to scott31337 it's not entirely our fault, he gets at least a little of the blame too.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 15 2024 07:05 GMT
#4803
On June 15 2024 16:00 Mocsta wrote:
Is there anything to make.of slam.throwaaay vote?
Honestly I think it makes him look more town. Not necessarily due to the fact that he threw away his vote itself, but the reasoning.

He voted for me for fishing for thread sentiment, apparently. Seems weird, but I think it's a risky stance to take as mafia. Why would you vote for someone who isn't going to be lynched if you are mafia, and stand out from the rest? Just feels like you're drawing extra attention to yourself and extra risk for no reason. What if I turned on him, for example?

Plus it means that if he is mafia, he didn't care about his vote. So if he's mafia, it's probably not with any of the Day 3 lynch candidates.
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