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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 15 2024 09:18 Vivax wrote: Yes, your filter size does indicate that you could be town. But at some point, I think we need to weigh the other reasons vs that one reason.I told Trfel to look at my filter size to figure me out and he shrugged it off. Funny that it always worked I am really, really reluctant to townread someone for one single reason unless I am absolutely sure. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
 But I absolutely could be. I hope it's not the throw of the century. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
With respect to the filter length argument, I also believe that taking game length into consideration is important, which is why I prefer to use percentage of game posts that belong to someone as a metric. Quick math suggests that Vivax had 9.3% of the posts in Endures II and 12.5% of the posts here. So, a little different, but is it too different? Also, for a more accurate analysis I'd have to remove off-topic posts, but I don't have time for that now. I'm sorry if this is wrong, it's just the best idea that I have right now. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
AlphaZero's playstyle itself has completely changed from day 1 to day 2-3. His reads have been changing as well. His pushes have been changing. Maybe to you, there's nothing to re-evaluate, because your only reason he is mafia is that he thinks you are mafia. Convincing. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 15 2024 10:07 scott31337 wrote: To be fair you asked why you should re evaluate. I gave you reasons. Another reason why you shouldn't doesn't invalidate the reasons I gave.And he keeps voting for townies (In my opinion). So there's that too. That hasn't change today. But whatever, you clearly made up your mind long ago. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 15 2024 10:17 AlphaZero wrote: So I don't believe in scumslips but did you just slip that this is a mislynch?Does it remind you of the last time he was mislynched? You were mafia remember? It does not remind me of that, that time he was trying to dump reads and he was really salty about it. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Sorry all.Thought it was worth a try. If die_meatbaby is mafia then it's the biggest throw of all time | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Part of me wants to trust Vivax's read that die_meatbaby is mafia, but at the same time, it didn't feel like a mafia lynch. So much silence going into the deadline didn't feel right at all to me. But if I ignore the thread activity analysis, I could still absolutely see die_meatbaby being mafia here. I'm not sure if it makes perfect sense for die_meatbaby to be mafia with sandroba but I also can't rule it out. Going to keep trying to figure out if die_meatbaby is mafia here. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Unfortunately, the latter is an extremely likely possibility >< It's just challenging practically, I don't have another way with which to approach things. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
 But as it is, all I can do is apologize for being bad. Ah well. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 15 2024 15:25 Mocsta wrote: Yeah, I had been more inclined to switch to scott31337 then Vivax. But Vivax posted and scott31337 didn't, unfortunately Vivax's posts made me want to lynch him more.he didn't help himself with all the politics Maybe I'm bad town for saying this If he did his list post of 6 points before he was going back and forth with you. It would be ok The problem is. The way he went about trying to save dmb always had too much drama in to be sure if town motivated.. could just be IRL which feels mafia as it's not town either I want to at least respect Vivax's reads, particularly die_meatbaby being mafia. But die_meatbaby being mafia doesn't make perfect sense to me? Like it's far from unreasonable, but it doesn't make me feel like the game is coming together, you know? Like one of those puzzle pieces that kinda fits but you're kinda forcing it and you're just not sure it's the right one. I've been in die_meatbaby's filter for over an hour now and I haven't made any progress towards figuring it out. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 15 2024 15:33 Mocsta wrote: Honestly, this is a weird situation for me. Usually when I spend a lot of time in someone's filter, I get a decent idea. Maybe it's wrong but I at least have a theory, you know? so if you dive one player and can't read Is that more likely town or Mafia? I would say as a heuristic If actively engaged, it's more.often town Does dmb read as actively engaged? On June 15 2024 15:36 Mocsta wrote: Maybe I differ from others but I don't value mafia roles very highly. IMO you play to keep the player in a better position alive every single time, regardless of who has which role. If they happen to have a good role, that's just a bonus.Well feeds into her being unlynchable so far Side note, I can't help but noticing that this setup includes potential for a mafia vigilante. I've never seen it actually happen but theoretically, mafia could be saving a vigilante shot, and then if we mislynch tomorrow, use it to close out the game without actually going to LYLO. That'd be brutal. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I really really wouldn't expect Oatsmaster to have been shot by a town vigilante. There's extremely little reason to shoot Oatsmaster there, and typically, the town vigilante claims after shooting. It just feels incredibly unlikely, not worth considering, and even if somehow this is what happened, the vigilante will eventually let us know. If it's a mafia vigilante, how would we know? What happened to the night kill? Also, why would the mafia vigilante shoot Night 2, of all nights? Like if we end up having a way to have blocked a night kill, maybe it's worth considering. But idk. I've never actually seen a mafia vigilante hold their shot, I guess the thinking is that it's too risky because if something happens and you get lynched it'd be bad? I just think it'd be absolutely devastating to town to save the shot and use it to avoid LYLO if you are in the position to do so. Also a mafia vigilante in a 13 player game would be a weird choice. So I'm probably just being paranoid. But it's right there in the setup... Makes me want to just get two mafia lynches and avoid LYLO tbh. If there was no mafia vigilante possible, I'd be happy to mislynch of course  | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 15 2024 15:55 Mocsta wrote: What?this Scott town case on one post still holds though I don't really agree. Why would scott31337 as town, think that he caught me in a scumslip and then not vote for me until later but do so purely for that reason? Also, I think the supposed scumslip is garbage and I wonder if it's possible for anyone as town to think that was a scumslip, but it's very difficult to be conclusive with that argument. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Honestly I don't think mafia vigilante should be possible in mini games, but oh well. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
So when we lose to scott31337 it's not entirely our fault, he gets at least a little of the blame too. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 15 2024 16:00 Mocsta wrote: Honestly I think it makes him look more town. Not necessarily due to the fact that he threw away his vote itself, but the reasoning.Is there anything to make.of slam.throwaaay vote? He voted for me for fishing for thread sentiment, apparently. Seems weird, but I think it's a risky stance to take as mafia. Why would you vote for someone who isn't going to be lynched if you are mafia, and stand out from the rest? Just feels like you're drawing extra attention to yourself and extra risk for no reason. What if I turned on him, for example? Plus it means that if he is mafia, he didn't care about his vote. So if he's mafia, it's probably not with any of the Day 3 lynch candidates. | ||
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