MS Paint Mafia - Page 3

On May 13 2024 05:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Smells like Chezinu kill.

On May 10 2024 14:02 Oatsmaster wrote:

~~

On May 13 2024 05:27 Jealous wrote:

Not at home so I will break my own self-rule of using only MS Paint but I got vigilante and I killed Grackaroni because he was basically the most suspected and had tried to shift the vote off of Oats. I figured worst case scenario we remove the unknown, but I really really wanted to N1 win the game after nailing Oats.

Interestingly, this means that scum held their shot or didn't answer the PM, as there was only 1 NK.

On May 13 2024 05:27 Jealous wrote:

Not at home so I will break my own self-rule of using only MS Paint but I got vigilante and I killed Grackaroni because he was basically the most suspected and had tried to shift the vote off of Oats. I figured worst case scenario we remove the unknown, but I really really wanted to N1 win the game after nailing Oats.

Interestingly, this means that scum held their shot or didn't answer the PM, as there was only 1 NK.

On May 12 2024 04:56 Palmar wrote:
No I think I'll stick with Oats, I still really dislike his page 1 filter.

On May 13 2024 05:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:

If that is the case then mafia is definitely Chezinu.

There is no way Palmar shoots Grackaroni after basically commiting himself onto lynching Grackaroni regardless of Oats flip.

Oats only basically tried to muddy the waters with you and Jealous, so that (amongst other things) i think makes you both town.

Both me and Trfel had actual thread presence to change the lynch at any point. Trfel did nothing of that sort, and when there were 3 votes on Oats, i instead decided to make Chezinu commit to his read and told i am gonna vote for Oats most likely. I would not do that as mafia, because for me / Trfel there would have been options to take another route going late D1.

On May 13 2024 08:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Jealous got the power up guaranteed, confirmed by hosts.

1) Jealous is town:
- Jealous shot Grackaroni -> mafia either ALSO shot Grackaroni or didn't shoot
1.1) mafia shot Grackaroni -> noone else really has any reason to shoot Grackaroni than Chezinu
1.2) mafia didn't shoot -> noone has reason to not shoot AFTER Vivax was modkilled, since not shooting there and there not being town vigilante makes MYLO D3 into LYLO D4 (you give town +1 mislynch by not shooting)

Therefore, if Jealous is town, mafia was either afk all night 1 (after Vivax was modkilled), or shot Grackaroni.

2) Jealous is mafia

That's pretty much it.

On May 13 2024 11:05 Jealous wrote:

Actually I think it would make sense for you to share this case, just for transparency. You already wrote it, so why not?

On May 13 2024 13:16 Trfel wrote:
Role analysis is confusing, an answer to raynpelikoneet's question would be very helpful here. My main reason to not lynch Jealous is that he was the first one to vote for Oatsmaster, who flipped mafia. Jealous voted for Oatsmaster at 7p PDT the night before the deadline (1p PDT the next day) (sorry for PDT, that's my time zone so I'm going to use it though). His last post before the deadline is at 9p PDT the day before the deadline. After that, he doesn't post again until almost 6p PDT the next day (five hours after the deadline).

The interesting thing is that the rest of the votes on Oatsmaster come after Jealous left the thread (in other words, Jealous went AFK, and then everyone voted for Oatsmaster). Obviously it looks good for him to vote for Oatsmaster since Oatsmaster was mafia, but I don't think this guarantees that Jealous is town. He could have easily been planning on moving his vote later and then either been away and unable to do so, or, when the wagon on Oatsmaster built up, just left it since he has the first vote and it's a solid bus.

Here's the thing though, the only real reason I have to think Jealous is mafia is because there was only one night kill, and Jealous claims to have shot Grackaroni. Pending the answer to raynpelikoneet's question, this just doesn't make a ton of sense to me if Jealous is town, because then I don't really know what mafia is doing. It's not out of the question that mafia is Chezinu or someone and he just failed to submit a night kill, he gets busy sometimes and has failed to submit night actions before. I just don't know if this is more likely than Jealous being mafia. I don't like not really having other reasons to be suspicious of Jealous. I'd feel really bad if we mislynched Jealous here just for that, since he literally did nothing wrong, he found valid reasons to vote for mafia and didn't do anything scummy or wrong.

I really think it's almost certainly Jealous or a Chezinu who didn't submit a night kill. Side note, Chezinu's vote onto Oatsmaster was the fifth vote, after me, Palmar, Vivax, and of course Jealous. I think it's reasonable to predict that Oatsmaster is going to be lynched at this point, so I could easily see Chezinu bussing Oatsmaster here. Chezinu voted for Oatsmaster at about 11a PDT the day of the lynch, and his last post before then was at 9p PDT the day before. At this time, Jealous had already voted for Oatsmaster, but no one else had. When Chezinu voted for Oatsmaster, he quoted Jealous's vote post, and I think it can be safely assumed that he meant that this is the reason why. But if Chezinu is town here, why did he vote for Oatsmaster at 11a PDT the day of the lynch, but not 9p PDT the day before? Jealous had already posted his post in question, therefore the reason is already there. Nothing else changed... Except that three others of us decided to vote for Oatsmaster.

It's very far from a clear-cut case, but with all that in mind I think it's more likely to be Chezinu. It's one thing (the lack of a second night kill) versus everything else, and even if that one thing seems pretty strong, everything else seems to point the other way.

All pending an answer to raynpelikoneet's question, of course.

One final thought, it's possible that the best strategy is to no lynch and trust that the five remaining townies can out-MS Paint the one remaining mafia player to get more information to settle things. While this doesn't seem like the worst idea ever, it's probably worse than just lynching (at least for now), and is definitely kinda boring.

On May 13 2024 19:05 Trfel wrote:
Interesting, I admit I didn't seriously consider Palmar being mafia. (or anyone besides Jealous or Chezinu, really)

Palmar also didn't post the entirety of Night 1. I don't think of Palmar as a player to miss night actions, and it's possible that he just didn't want to post if it had to be a Paint picture, but it's interesting nevertheless.

Very, very surprised that Palmar is voting for raynpelikoneet here. I don't think that it makes any sense for Palmar to do this if he is town, honestly I don't think it makes much sense for him to do it as mafia but I suppose that's up for debate. Like I think that indicates that it may very well be Palmar instead of Chezinu.

I'm not in a huge rush to figure it out, also we have a few lynches at our disposal, I think the options of Palmar and Chezinu are reasonable though. Of course it would be nice to get it right, but honestly I'm not super stressed about it.

Going to vote for Palmar and see where that takes us.

On May 14 2024 23:03 Palmar wrote:
No Jealous needs to be on the table but it's so damn confusing.

But if we lose this game it's Vivax' fault for costing us a mislynch.

Basically the only scenarios where Jealous isn't just mafia based on role interactions are the following:

1) Mafia held or forgot to shoot. This is very, very unlikely. If mafia is checked out, just resign. Also everyone seems to be playing. Maybe they held it to confuse us?

2) Mafia shot Grack. This is possible, but pretty very few scum candidates would've been interested in shooting Grack, knowing he was probably going to be tunneled.

The simplest solution is just that Jealous is mafia and shot Grack, and got whatever other random powerup. I honestly don't understand the point on some powerups, wtf is a roleblocker going to do when it's the only role in the game?

(sidenote, rayn suggesting I may forget to NK because it's weekend shows how incredibly dumb his model is. That is something I will never, ever do because of how I treat game integrity).