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On March 09 2024 11:14 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 10:57 Oatsmaster wrote:
Town
Do not fucking lynch slam ever no matter if I flip miller or VT or I will end you after this game. Don’t you mean when?
LOL
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On March 09 2024 11:53 CopCake wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 11:52 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
And now cake is voting VE with still no posts here lol I posted and quoted palmar
????
Did you vote Palmar because he wrote a case on rayn?
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On March 09 2024 13:15 iamperfection wrote:
so the dumb town tell that oats didnt see right after the day post. So DMB town for sure. Dont think bus right there.
I WIFOM'd on this for a while because I already put myself in "Oats is scum" world right after the flip, so the question was "is there any way this was a coordinated bus?"
Ockham's razor says "no." So does Hanlon's. So at this point DMB has to be town IMO. At least that is the null hypothesis until every other option has been exhausted.
Honestly pains me to say it, too.
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On March 08 2024 13:29 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2024 13:22 Rels wrote:On March 08 2024 12:38 DarthPunk wrote:On March 08 2024 12:37 Rels wrote:On March 08 2024 12:36 DarthPunk wrote:On March 08 2024 12:34 Rels wrote:On March 08 2024 12:30 DarthPunk wrote:On March 08 2024 12:27 Rels wrote:On March 08 2024 09:55 CopCake wrote:On March 08 2024 09:49 marvellosity wrote:
[quote]
Why is it wild? sandro and I and maybe rayn too both discussed jk is stronger than cop. Mafia marv has two options - block rayn - block vivax Both of them (at least rayn) decides to protect slam. Therefore mafia knows not to waste kills there. So either rayn or vivax got blocked (duh) over slam. But why not block slam if rayn or vivax would protect slam anyways? (In mafia marvs perspective) I think this kinda clears marv? I mean that would be the best mafia play. Block slam because he would be protected anyways and you know rayn would waste his doc on him and vivax would JK block/ slam So the one who got blocked was vivax and no rayn! Marv is town by night actions. Please correct me if I am wrong. I think this is a very townie post The logic is pretty wrong IMO. I don't understand why you assume mafia would think Vivax would protect Slam though. After removing that assumption, the logic kind of fall apart Kind of moot since I think marv is very very townie I think she is pocketing him here. Your last point is why. Wild theories like this are not something I associate with scum!CopCake. Planning on rereading the latest game where we were scum together to verify when I'm caught up Pocketing is not a wild theory, its standard practice as mafia. In that specific case, the logic to which she arrives at the marv townread, not the attempt itself That looks like standard mafia fare to me. Lots of waffling about nothing important to land on an important town read for your own survival. Comparing CopCake with that game: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/586368-chezinu-streaks-mafia?user=CopCake&view=allI think it's pretty different. In this current game, she talks very freely, posts stuff like this even when unprompted. The other game doesn't contain a weird theory, just "faking to be town" with "normal analysis, with sometimes some fake confrontation or anger. And even then, nothing that comes to the level of interaction she had this game, like when she bumped into you D1, rayn N1, Slam D2 as examples ... This is reflected in the filter size too: 19 pages in this game (in the middle of D2) vs 9 pages in that game (lynched D4) I think her other game is more similar, and she had around 13 pages
Just read it, how so?
The thing I saw that is different from the other scum game is that she really bumped into you in Endures II, similar to this game.
I didn't see the rest though. Similar to Chezinu streak mafia, she was very "normal", a lot of posts defending herself, a few posts with straightforward reasons for people to be scum. I guess the concise way to put it would be boring
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On March 09 2024 14:04 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2024 13:29 DarthPunk wrote:On March 08 2024 13:22 Rels wrote:On March 08 2024 12:38 DarthPunk wrote:On March 08 2024 12:37 Rels wrote:On March 08 2024 12:36 DarthPunk wrote:On March 08 2024 12:34 Rels wrote:On March 08 2024 12:30 DarthPunk wrote:On March 08 2024 12:27 Rels wrote:On March 08 2024 09:55 CopCake wrote:
[quote]
Mafia marv has two options
- block rayn
- block vivax
Both of them (at least rayn) decides to protect slam. Therefore mafia knows not to waste kills there.
So either rayn or vivax got blocked (duh) over slam.
But why not block slam if rayn or vivax would protect slam anyways? (In mafia marvs perspective)
I think this kinda clears marv?
I mean that would be the best mafia play.
Block slam because he would be protected anyways and you know rayn would waste his doc on him and vivax would JK block/ slam
So the one who got blocked was vivax and no rayn!
Marv is town by night actions.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
I think this is a very townie post The logic is pretty wrong IMO. I don't understand why you assume mafia would think Vivax would protect Slam though. After removing that assumption, the logic kind of fall apart Kind of moot since I think marv is very very townie I think she is pocketing him here. Your last point is why. Wild theories like this are not something I associate with scum!CopCake. Planning on rereading the latest game where we were scum together to verify when I'm caught up Pocketing is not a wild theory, its standard practice as mafia. In that specific case, the logic to which she arrives at the marv townread, not the attempt itself That looks like standard mafia fare to me. Lots of waffling about nothing important to land on an important town read for your own survival. Comparing CopCake with that game: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/586368-chezinu-streaks-mafia?user=CopCake&view=allI think it's pretty different. In this current game, she talks very freely, posts stuff like this even when unprompted. The other game doesn't contain a weird theory, just "faking to be town" with "normal analysis, with sometimes some fake confrontation or anger. And even then, nothing that comes to the level of interaction she had this game, like when she bumped into you D1, rayn N1, Slam D2 as examples ... This is reflected in the filter size too: 19 pages in this game (in the middle of D2) vs 9 pages in that game (lynched D4) I think her other game is more similar, and she had around 13 pages Just read it, how so? The thing I saw that is different from the other scum game is that she really bumped into you in Endures II, similar to this game. I didn't see the rest though. Similar to Chezinu streak mafia, she was very "normal", a lot of posts defending herself, a few posts with straightforward reasons for people to be scum. I guess the concise way to put it would be boring
She was extremely aggressive in E2 I wouldn;t call that boring, and as the person that she is bumping into in both games, I can tell you it feels the same
But its fine, I have a gun.
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On March 09 2024 13:54 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:15 iamperfection wrote:
so the dumb town tell that oats didnt see right after the day post. So DMB town for sure. Dont think bus right there. I WIFOM'd on this for a while because I already put myself in "Oats is scum" world right after the flip, so the question was "is there any way this was a coordinated bus?" Ockham's razor says "no." So does Hanlon's. So at this point DMB has to be town IMO. At least that is the null hypothesis until every other option has been exhausted. Honestly pains me to say it, too.
I thought I read all posts and yet I don't follow what iamperfection and you are saying. What's the reasoning being made here?
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On March 09 2024 14:09 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:54 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 13:15 iamperfection wrote:
so the dumb town tell that oats didnt see right after the day post. So DMB town for sure. Dont think bus right there. I WIFOM'd on this for a while because I already put myself in "Oats is scum" world right after the flip, so the question was "is there any way this was a coordinated bus?" Ockham's razor says "no." So does Hanlon's. So at this point DMB has to be town IMO. At least that is the null hypothesis until every other option has been exhausted. Honestly pains me to say it, too. I thought I read all posts and yet I don't follow what iamperfection and you are saying. What's the reasoning being made here?
Oats voted DMB basically within a minute of being outed as scum. Plausible he saw himself be outed. I figure it is likely he didn't unless he had that play locked and ready, which would be super legendary. So, razors say DMB has to he town.
Should be on the same page as the N1 post or very close to it.
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On March 09 2024 14:14 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 14:09 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 13:54 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 13:15 iamperfection wrote:
so the dumb town tell that oats didnt see right after the day post. So DMB town for sure. Dont think bus right there. I WIFOM'd on this for a while because I already put myself in "Oats is scum" world right after the flip, so the question was "is there any way this was a coordinated bus?" Ockham's razor says "no." So does Hanlon's. So at this point DMB has to be town IMO. At least that is the null hypothesis until every other option has been exhausted. Honestly pains me to say it, too. I thought I read all posts and yet I don't follow what iamperfection and you are saying. What's the reasoning being made here? Oats voted DMB basically within a minute of being outed as scum. Plausible he saw himself be outed. I figure it is likely he didn't unless he had that play locked and ready, which would be super legendary. So, razors say DMB has to he town. Should be on the same page as the N1 post or very close to it.
EBWOP D2 post, was thinking N1 end post. And it's the next page or two after.
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I see. My head tells me that it's super easy to fake. But you're right that it's so soon after the red claim ... I wouldn't even post at that point, I would just take a moment to think
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On March 09 2024 14:14 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 14:09 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 13:54 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 13:15 iamperfection wrote:
so the dumb town tell that oats didnt see right after the day post. So DMB town for sure. Dont think bus right there. I WIFOM'd on this for a while because I already put myself in "Oats is scum" world right after the flip, so the question was "is there any way this was a coordinated bus?" Ockham's razor says "no." So does Hanlon's. So at this point DMB has to be town IMO. At least that is the null hypothesis until every other option has been exhausted. Honestly pains me to say it, too. I thought I read all posts and yet I don't follow what iamperfection and you are saying. What's the reasoning being made here? Oats voted DMB basically within a minute of being outed as scum. Plausible he saw himself be outed. I figure it is likely he didn't unless he had that play locked and ready, which would be super legendary. So, razors say DMB has to he town. Should be on the same page as the N1 post or very close to it.
Wait are you arguing that he didn't see the red check before the vote? Then it doesn't prove anything
But I think he must have seen it. I know as scum, I hit refresh 20 times and reread my post 20 times before posting anything
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Seeing the red claim and immediately voting his teammate in less than 2 minutes ... maybe it's not possible
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On March 09 2024 14:26 Rels wrote:
Seeing the red claim and immediately voting his teammate in less than 2 minutes ... maybe it's not possible
Range is like 0.01 seconds to 119, but as someone who was there it felt very fast. If anyone knows how to get time depth on the level of seconds, let me know.
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My argument is that it is more implausible than plausible, basically. To me the margins are similar to "does Alakaslam fake being cop" or "can Oats really be miller." For me the answer to all of these was also a probabilistic "no." This one is less clear-cut partially due to Oats playing a great mafia at EOD2 so it might be plausible he had the idea already locked and loaded as a reaction to a reveal by Slam, for example. But I am going to base my decisions in this being unlikely until something forces me to reconsider.
In any case, I feel there are better lynch targets than DMB before we get there at the moment, and this helps wide the divide if I assume it as null hypothesis basically.
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FALSE ALARM
Oats spent like, the entirety of N1 (and even before) talking about how scummy DMB is
Whether DMB is scum or not, it doesn't matter. Voting DMB at the beginning of D2 just makes sense, regardless or her alignment. It's just the automatic play
+ Show Spoiler +On March 06 2024 11:31 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 11:26 Rels wrote:
Well looks like I won't be able to join after all. My daughter is still not well and is still not sleeping so I'm staying with her until she's better. Will try to phone read and post if she starts to sleep but no guarantee . Will also switch to JAT since nobody is on the Palmar wagon anymore Vote for dmb On March 06 2024 12:18 Oatsmaster wrote:
Dmb :> 🪓 On March 06 2024 12:39 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 12:34 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 06 2024 12:31 DarthPunk wrote:On March 06 2024 12:28 die_meatbaby wrote:
So it´s scummy that she wasted her vote (in my opinion it is a bit scummy)
But it is also scummy for you that I didn´t waste my vote and tried to vote one of wagons I would rather have lynched even I didn´t want to lynch both... What the hell is wrong with you. Either of your aligment the play is bad I was voting for you so that I could determine your alignment that's it. You know how I play as Town and usuallly you play smart so you should be aware of my aligment aready as slam is. But maybe you are not as smart as I thougt. You just was helping oatsmaster, who is a big scumread in my list btw Oh now I’m a scumread? Lol you can’t keep your story straight On March 06 2024 12:43 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 10:59 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 06 2024 10:53 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 06 2024 10:51 DarthPunk wrote:On March 06 2024 10:50 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 06 2024 10:49 DarthPunk wrote:On March 06 2024 10:48 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 06 2024 10:44 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 06 2024 10:36 DarthPunk wrote:Especially when she is joining my wagon  I don´t really saw you making a wagon. It´s more like somebody kinda says that that person looks scummy and just tried to push a wagon on it or a lynch or whatever. Does´t really seem like you searching for actual mafia here just for a reasonable town lynch where you can say; before I started the wagon there where other people thinking the same. I was not alone.. blablabla.... Just already disapointed of you in this game. You big filter doesn´t make you direkty activ Town... This is a scumslip I don't see it. Reasonable town lynch ie jat is town Is that a stretch though, could be ESL What’s the difficulty? She’s callling the lynch town AND shes on it Can you read? I didn´t say JAT is Town i just said I am not happy with both wagons. Should I waste my vote. Did it in my first game. OPEN YOU EYES AND READ CORRECTLY PLS This is not how people talk to their scumread On March 07 2024 02:42 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 02:26 CopCake wrote:On March 06 2024 10:51 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 06 2024 10:48 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 06 2024 10:44 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 06 2024 10:36 DarthPunk wrote:Especially when she is joining my wagon I don´t really saw you making a wagon. It´s more like somebody kinda says that that person looks scummy and just tried to push a wagon on it or a lynch or whatever. Does´t really seem like you searching for actual mafia here just for a reasonable town lynch where you can say; before I started the wagon there where other people thinking the same. I was not alone.. blablabla.... Just already disapointed of you in this game. You big filter doesn´t make you direkty activ Town... This is a scumslip word nr.4 today. Thank you  love to improve my english Maybe just tired and annoyed about stupid people here. Either wagons are not a good D1 lynch Oats, this is the dumb scum slip according to you, right? That is not correct On March 07 2024 02:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
It’s the nested quote inside the one that I directly responded to saying it’s a scumslip On March 07 2024 03:07 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 02:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 07 2024 02:43 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 07 2024 02:32 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Jacob comes off as really really townie on all fronts Explain?? All of that shit where he says he has never been lynched as town and makes a case on himself. That Koshi case is also townie for him i think, if anyone DP looks like shit there when agreeing with him and not telling him the real deal. I don’t understand how he thinks koshis thing is a scumslip while dmbs thing wasn’t to him On March 07 2024 08:16 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 08:09 JacobStrangelove wrote:On March 07 2024 03:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
hmm okay he actually went to read dmb's filter.
i retract my analysis and await for Jacob to answer. Tbh You'll have to bring up which post exactly is the DMB Scum slip post again. It's probably because I'm a highly empathetic person tbh I try to get in people's heads and understand where they're coming from from what I've seen of DMB it seems in line with their ESL style so it didn't phase me. (I say not remembering exactly which post they slipped in) Koshi on the other hand strikes me as someone who wouldn't phrase things "Incorrectly" as town without first clarifying he was doing a "In this senario" style post. Where as people with higher empathy (generally) women and particualy ESL speakers who have to try and get in people's thoughts constantly, would. Along with the slight barrier with communicating being in someones's head. If that makes sense. On March 07 2024 04:41 marvellosity wrote:On March 07 2024 04:39 CopCake wrote:On March 07 2024 04:36 marvellosity wrote:
POIDH Rels is also cute I feel like we need a girls chat OMG totally should all make a list of the hottest guys it'll be fun. Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 10:44 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 06 2024 10:36 DarthPunk wrote:Especially when she is joining my wagon I don´t really saw you making a wagon. It´s more like somebody kinda says that that person looks scummy and just tried to push a wagon on it or a lynch or whatever. Does´t really seem like you searching for actual mafia here just for a reasonable town lynch where you can say; before I started the wagon there where other people thinking the same. I was not alone.. blablabla.... Just already disapointed of you in this game. You big filter doesn´t make you direkty activ Town... Here was the post Jacob. Literally has nothing to do with empathy or whatever On March 07 2024 09:15 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 08:30 JacobStrangelove wrote:On March 07 2024 08:16 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 07 2024 08:09 JacobStrangelove wrote:On March 07 2024 03:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
hmm okay he actually went to read dmb's filter.
i retract my analysis and await for Jacob to answer. Tbh You'll have to bring up which post exactly is the DMB Scum slip post again. It's probably because I'm a highly empathetic person tbh I try to get in people's heads and understand where they're coming from from what I've seen of DMB it seems in line with their ESL style so it didn't phase me. (I say not remembering exactly which post they slipped in) Koshi on the other hand strikes me as someone who wouldn't phrase things "Incorrectly" as town without first clarifying he was doing a "In this senario" style post. Where as people with higher empathy (generally) women and particualy ESL speakers who have to try and get in people's thoughts constantly, would. Along with the slight barrier with communicating being in someones's head. If that makes sense. On March 07 2024 04:41 marvellosity wrote:On March 07 2024 04:39 CopCake wrote:On March 07 2024 04:36 marvellosity wrote:
POIDH Rels is also cute I feel like we need a girls chat OMG totally should all make a list of the hottest guys it'll be fun. On March 06 2024 10:44 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 06 2024 10:36 DarthPunk wrote:Especially when she is joining my wagon I don´t really saw you making a wagon. It´s more like somebody kinda says that that person looks scummy and just tried to push a wagon on it or a lynch or whatever. Does´t really seem like you searching for actual mafia here just for a reasonable town lynch where you can say; before I started the wagon there where other people thinking the same. I was not alone.. blablabla.... Just already disapointed of you in this game. You big filter doesn´t make you direkty activ Town... Here was the post Jacob. Literally has nothing to do with empathy or whatever Ahh no I still don't think it's a scum slip. See here "I don´t really saw you making a wagon." From my perspective you aren't making a case "It´s more like somebody kinda says that that person looks scummy and just tried to push a wagon on it or a lynch or whatever." You're just saying they look scummy and pushing people to vote for them. *This is where the empathy kicks in, the implication here being that DP is mafia for doing this. "Does´t really seem like you searching for actual mafia" You're not looking for mafia you are mafia. "here just for a reasonable town lynch" As mafia you're just looking for a town lynch "where you can say; before I started the wagon there where other people thinking the same. I was not alone.. blablabla.... Just already disapointed of you in this game. You big filter doesn´t make you direkty activ Town..." Where as Mafia you have safety from a flip. This is directly different from Koshi's post where it's litterally. "Oh yo when you flip town this will be helpful but it's not right now" Koshi is obviously talking about the scenario which marv flips town. Like when that happens. Not that it will happen…. Okay we can agree to disagree about the wording whatever however she’s literally voting for the person that DP is on at this time which she literally does not care about On March 07 2024 09:27 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 09:18 JacobStrangelove wrote:On March 07 2024 09:15 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 07 2024 08:30 JacobStrangelove wrote:On March 07 2024 08:16 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 07 2024 08:09 JacobStrangelove wrote:On March 07 2024 03:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
hmm okay he actually went to read dmb's filter.
i retract my analysis and await for Jacob to answer. Tbh You'll have to bring up which post exactly is the DMB Scum slip post again. It's probably because I'm a highly empathetic person tbh I try to get in people's heads and understand where they're coming from from what I've seen of DMB it seems in line with their ESL style so it didn't phase me. (I say not remembering exactly which post they slipped in) Koshi on the other hand strikes me as someone who wouldn't phrase things "Incorrectly" as town without first clarifying he was doing a "In this senario" style post. Where as people with higher empathy (generally) women and particualy ESL speakers who have to try and get in people's thoughts constantly, would. Along with the slight barrier with communicating being in someones's head. If that makes sense. On March 07 2024 04:41 marvellosity wrote:On March 07 2024 04:39 CopCake wrote:On March 07 2024 04:36 marvellosity wrote:
POIDH Rels is also cute I feel like we need a girls chat OMG totally should all make a list of the hottest guys it'll be fun. On March 06 2024 10:44 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 06 2024 10:36 DarthPunk wrote:Especially when she is joining my wagon I don´t really saw you making a wagon. It´s more like somebody kinda says that that person looks scummy and just tried to push a wagon on it or a lynch or whatever. Does´t really seem like you searching for actual mafia here just for a reasonable town lynch where you can say; before I started the wagon there where other people thinking the same. I was not alone.. blablabla.... Just already disapointed of you in this game. You big filter doesn´t make you direkty activ Town... Here was the post Jacob. Literally has nothing to do with empathy or whatever Ahh no I still don't think it's a scum slip. See here "I don´t really saw you making a wagon." From my perspective you aren't making a case "It´s more like somebody kinda says that that person looks scummy and just tried to push a wagon on it or a lynch or whatever." You're just saying they look scummy and pushing people to vote for them. *This is where the empathy kicks in, the implication here being that DP is mafia for doing this. "Does´t really seem like you searching for actual mafia" You're not looking for mafia you are mafia. "here just for a reasonable town lynch" As mafia you're just looking for a town lynch "where you can say; before I started the wagon there where other people thinking the same. I was not alone.. blablabla.... Just already disapointed of you in this game. You big filter doesn´t make you direkty activ Town..." Where as Mafia you have safety from a flip. This is directly different from Koshi's post where it's litterally. "Oh yo when you flip town this will be helpful but it's not right now" Koshi is obviously talking about the scenario which marv flips town. Like when that happens. Not that it will happen…. Okay we can agree to disagree about the wording whatever however she’s literally voting for the person that DP is on at this time which she literally does not care about Look the second part I also disagree with, if she doesn't vote one of the top two lynches it's a wasted vote, like the three people who basically avoided the lynch entirely if she does she's gotta pick one of the two options. You've put them in a catch-22 scenario here where there's no winning. She either votes the lesser of the two evils and is scummy or votes for neither and is scummy. The point is that it doesn’t enter her mind at all that that’s the situation. She barely talks about either of them, just randomly starts ranting at me and DP. On March 07 2024 12:01 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 10:11 die_meatbaby wrote:
Regardless of what I think about cake, but it seems to me that he picks weaker players to annoy until they make a mistake because of beeing annoyd and then he can push the wagon that comes up. Why he didn´t do that do players like Koshi, marv or rayn. They wouldn´t fear Dp.
This is so Tmi it’s crazy, she knows that these players are town or what?? On March 07 2024 12:12 Oatsmaster wrote:
##vote dmb
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My big surprise is that he enters the thread IMMEDIATELY, but yeah that's surprising to me regardless of his vote aligment
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On March 09 2024 14:28 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 14:26 Rels wrote:
Seeing the red claim and immediately voting his teammate in less than 2 minutes ... maybe it's not possible Range is like 0.01 seconds to 119, but as someone who was there it felt very fast. If anyone knows how to get time depth on the level of seconds, let me know.
To my knowledge that's not possible
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On March 09 2024 14:33 Jealous wrote:
My argument is that it is more implausible than plausible, basically. To me the margins are similar to "does Alakaslam fake being cop" or "can Oats really be miller." For me the answer to all of these was also a probabilistic "no." This one is less clear-cut partially due to Oats playing a great mafia at EOD2 so it might be plausible he had the idea already locked and loaded as a reaction to a reveal by Slam, for example. But I am going to base my decisions in this being unlikely until something forces me to reconsider.
In any case, I feel there are better lynch targets than DMB before we get there at the moment, and this helps wide the divide if I assume it as null hypothesis basically.
100% agree that the reaction time to vote a random partner immediately after being red check is super implausible
But that's not the case there. The DMB bullet was loaded more than 24 hours previously
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On March 09 2024 14:35 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 14:33 Jealous wrote:
My argument is that it is more implausible than plausible, basically. To me the margins are similar to "does Alakaslam fake being cop" or "can Oats really be miller." For me the answer to all of these was also a probabilistic "no." This one is less clear-cut partially due to Oats playing a great mafia at EOD2 so it might be plausible he had the idea already locked and loaded as a reaction to a reveal by Slam, for example. But I am going to base my decisions in this being unlikely until something forces me to reconsider.
In any case, I feel there are better lynch targets than DMB before we get there at the moment, and this helps wide the divide if I assume it as null hypothesis basically. 100% agree that the reaction time to vote a random partner immediately after being red check is super implausible But that's not the case there. The DMB bullet was loaded more than 24 hours previously
I guess I can see that being true. After all, I was ready to vote Cop right at start, too.
Good post.
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Who was it that said that scum team would try to be rid of scum!DMB as fast as possible? I'm a bit hazy rn but I am pretty sure that was a thing.
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I guess the follow-up question is "Would town!Rels as he has played so far be willing to stick his neck out for DMB to this extent and dig to make it believable?"
WIFOM battling against WIOM (wine inside of me) rn so I'll probably check out now.
Nice job team, props Slam. Let's make N2/D2 productive and figure out who was breadcrumming and who was anti-town sheeping.
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EPT
