A Classy Game of Mafia - Page 270

On March 09 2024 13:20 Rels wrote:
@Anyone does scum!Palmar fake 2 dumbtells in a single post? Taking in consideration that people have scumread DMB for dumbtelling

On March 09 2024 13:21 iamperfection wrote:


we should ask the palmar expert when he wakes up.

On March 09 2024 13:15 Jealous wrote:

Didn't you get this thought from someone else like 2 hours before lynch or am I just misremembering? For the first 90% of D2 you believed that this was basically an impossible outcome, no?

On March 09 2024 02:30 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:

This might be the smartest thing you've posted koshi.

Reading through Slam's D1 and Oats is his most consistent scumread. It could also explain why Slam didn't die last night.

On March 09 2024 06:59 Palmar wrote:
So like I'm going to try to sort of organize the game in my head, and I'm going to do it out loud, so you can watch me think. It's a fascinating display.

We probably have about 5 mafia in this game. It could be 4, but then they have very strong roles. Normal balance would suggest 5.

This means I need to start sort of filtering down the people I want to think about.

First up, the people I don't really want to lynch or even consider at all:

DarthPunk for huge filter and repeatedly liking his takes on things.
Vivax because that's the gamble we made when we didn't policy lynch him.

Then there's the weaker town reads that are definitely going to contain some mafia:

Koshi was very good early day 1, but I feel like his impact has been reduced. Still not enough to start calling him mafia
marvellosity - I kinda think he's maybe town, he did come around on me correctly, and I kinda trust sandro's read. So for what it's worth, he goes into the "worry later" pile.

Then there's the people who will be resolved by today

Slam - we lynch slam if Oats flips non-miller town. The frame idea is statistically so unlikely
Oats - we lynch Oats today because despite his efforts, there is like 90% chance of him flipping mafia. He does look and say townie things which is pretty well played, but the odds of any other random player flipping red just happen to be significantly lower

Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed

This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.


Actually as I write this I realize I have way too few townread, which means I really, really need to get work done. For one reason or another I don't trust any of the people below.



Jealous - lack of investigation from me, little posting
Meapak_Ziphh - lack of investigation from me, I'm masoned with the dude but I'm a terrible mason partner because I think they're stupid. That's mostly on me. I also recall some of his posting being a little meek
justanothertownie - Some really atrocious takes throughout the game. Bullshit associative reads and voting without any kind of analysis.
die_meatbaby - lack of investigation from me. I remember having a different feel from last game, but she still gets stuck on dumb shit.
CopCake - I kinda liked rayn's point during the night. Also she should really think I'm town after our discussion in the night.
JacobStrangelove - This guy is clearly just smart. I liked his posting because it's all pretty reasonable, but I feel like he isn't moving the needle at all this game. Happy sitting back and not getting listened to.
Iamperfection - One particularly terrible take during the night, but maybe he just doesn't know what a policy lynch is. I didn't follow up enough to understand if it was malicious or just kinda stupid.
ToTheStars - lurker
VisceraEyes - Fell off cliff. Where VE?
Rels - Terrible case on me on day 1 that reeked of mafia trying to "contribute". Super clear he wasn't caught up on the game and lacked opinionsþ

On March 09 2024 13:12 Rels wrote:
I'm happy that a scum flipped, and I'm fucking happy one of the first things I found in this game turned out to be right when nobody else saw it

On March 09 2024 13:29 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Not trying to be a dick Rels but it's not really a good look for you to try and so obviously grab town points for something you had nothing to do with.

On March 09 2024 13:29 Jealous wrote:

Fair, apologies. I do remember this interaction, just underestimated how far it was from EOD because their were several bursts of catching up while working today.

Personally and regardless of the real %chance number, I think this play you described is REALLY unlikely, period. Basically, I was always in agreement with your initial approach to the issue, not the one it became by EOD/vote. But, I understand that pendulums can swing hard when it comes to perception.