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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:38 marvellosity wrote: You said you liked his LS read, best thing he’s done all game. Well that would be the case if it’s a bus, right? Yes start of D2. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:40 raynpelikoneet wrote: idk why he should do that? Killing Koshi kind of works here, but like... DP started the bus (if that's what it is) when there was no real lynch candidate (aside from mebaby). I don't think it's the correct play there as mafia, since there is no way to predict where the thread sentiment for town ends up on. In that team though, DP might assess that LS is slipping and take the decision to start bussing early. Something I have done multiple times in scum games (when I used to win all the time) | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
His D1 doubt and soft bus on LS is not really, in my eyes. Like i would not do that if i was mafia with LS. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
No I’m saying if it’s a bus of course his push on LS is the one thing that looks good. See what I mean? | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21171 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:40 raynpelikoneet wrote: idk why he should do that? Killing Koshi kind of works here, but like... DP started the bus (if that's what it is) when there was no real lynch candidate (aside from mebaby). I don't think it's the correct play there as mafia, since there is no way to predict where the thread sentiment for town ends up on. Isn't there, rayn? Isn't there? I seem to recall someone being able to predict where thread sentiment was heading YESTERDAY, when someone led the lynch from MZ to the DOCTOR, and I don't even have extra info. You think that someone with extra info would be unable to not only better sense thread sentiment, but be in a position to manipulate it? Like...I've been pretty townie on DP but clearing him because he tried tried to lynch someone "when there is no lynch candidate" feels.....again, like you're being intentionally obtuse. It feels like I'm playing with rayn ON HIS FIRST EVER GAME. AWWWWWWW NEWBIE RAYN!!!! | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: Like his D2 reaction to LS post is possible for being a bus. His D1 doubt and soft bus on LS is not really, in my eyes. Like i would not do that if i was mafia with LS. And that’s the counter argument. Just to be clear to everyone else, I am not looking to lynch anyone on this sort of conjecture. I am just trying to hash out what is plausible as a play. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:44 VisceraEyes wrote: Isn't there, rayn? Isn't there? I seem to recall someone being able to predict where thread sentiment was heading YESTERDAY, when someone led the lynch from MZ to the DOCTOR, and I don't even have extra info. You think that someone with extra info would be unable to not only better sense thread sentiment, but be in a position to manipulate it? Like...I've been pretty townie on DP but clearing him because he tried tried to lynch someone "when there is no lynch candidate" feels.....again, like you're being intentionally obtuse. It feels like I'm playing with rayn ON HIS FIRST EVER GAME. AWWWWWWW NEWBIE RAYN!!!! What are you actually trying to say here? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: gimme a sec marv, gonna buy some beer real quick I’m gonna do some work. My promised day of inactivity hasn’t gone well | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21171 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:47 marvellosity wrote: What are you actually trying to say here? That this clearing DP over LS is LUDAAA I'm not even that sus of DP but I'm fairly certain DP would bus fuckin URYBODY, regardless of circumstances. He's a fearless player like me. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:42 marvellosity wrote: In that team though, DP might assess that LS is slipping and take the decision to start bussing early. Something I have done multiple times in scum games (when I used to win all the time) Okay so. I don't know why DP should start the bus (even soft) when everyone is pretty much thinking LS is town in thread? It's okay to be wrong as town and change your opinion if you need to do that, he sure knows that if he is mafia as well. Now if DP is mafia, we can probably agree that at least some of the reason Koshi was killed because of their rant during N1. If DP is mafia with LS, why does LS come into the thread come start D2 and vomit this shit out effectively throwing suspicion on BOTH of them? And then DP has no excuse to not hard buss. I genuinely think that's very bad mafia team play that would have started early D1 for no reason at all. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
- LS is town and right about some parts of DP's play (why Koshi died) - DP is right and LS is mafia and LS used that as an excuse to call DP out - Both are town, DP is wrong on LS and LS makes a wrong conclusion about the night kill This is not considering their play, just hypothetical in how their alignments align. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:42 marvellosity wrote: In that team though, DP might assess that LS is slipping and take the decision to start bussing early. I dont believe in that, sorry. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
Like i remember being mafia with DP in a game where we were with ObvousOne (and everything went horribly wrong). We both ended up bussing OO D1 but it wasn't like this, it was a long chat in scum QT before the decision was made and everyone knew what they would get into, and why. And there was definitely no "because i (we) think you might give us away" from DP's part. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:44 VisceraEyes wrote: Isn't there, rayn? Isn't there? I seem to recall someone being able to predict where thread sentiment was heading YESTERDAY, when someone led the lynch from MZ to the DOCTOR, and I don't even have extra info. You think that someone with extra info would be unable to not only better sense thread sentiment, but be in a position to manipulate it? Like...I've been pretty townie on DP but clearing him because he tried tried to lynch someone "when there is no lynch candidate" feels.....again, like you're being intentionally obtuse. It feels like I'm playing with rayn ON HIS FIRST EVER GAME. AWWWWWWW NEWBIE RAYN!!!! this is really stupid VE. predicting thread sentiment like 5 hours into the game is different than when 3 or so people only have not voted and half of the thread has locked their votes already. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
it's just too bad at the moment, i need a break. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Fair enough. Fortunately not something we need to be agreeing on! | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17336 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: How are you on DP's responses this phase marv and Slam? I just get real strong town feels from DP, but I am biased because I relate and reacted as he did while in the thread. Thing is I feel like this about too many people. His responses make sense though, he literally alluded to this- that we were pretty strongly gut reading MZ, and accurately it turns out. The more I look at Koshi's shot the more I find that though the result was depressing, the move was good on so many levels. | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17336 Posts
On May 26 2023 23:29 marvellosity wrote: Oddly I am out walking and I have just been thinking about exactly that. I would like to go back and reread at a better time for me though. First thought was that he generally held up quite well and stuck around for several pages with just me, you, him… can’t be that easy as mafia. Having said that DP is good enough to pull this off. I’m assuming the meta on TTT is fair enough but is almost NAI regardless of combinations of alignments. Something that stuck in my mind was how difficult it was to talk about VE and how quickly the conversation turned to something else. If I think about it another way - would I be more or less surprised if DP was suddenly flipped mafia right now than I was 24h ago? The dial on that hasn’t moved that much. What do you think? Ok and this is a good point. If he is mafia, I feel like next target is VE. In fact I find that if we lynch either, should probably be VE first. | ||
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