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On November 30 2020 06:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Also let's assume FF's bg claim is legit. Who's mafia between TT and Vivax? Or do you think i am mafia? No, I don't think you are mafia. I mean, it's possible, and I'll probably look into that possibility eventually, but I find it very, very unlikely. You've played a solid game.
Honestly I don't know. I would be inclined to say Vivax, but the way Hapahauli pushed Vivax makes me question it. He then backed off of course, it's possible they were double-bussing, but I'd have to look at it in more detail.
Vivax and someone else both questioned Hapahauli's blue claim. I'd be inclined to suspect Vivax for this, as I think (vanilla) town would be more inclined to believe the claim, unless the other person was Tictock as well, then it's moot.
I'm a bit distracted, I started playing some Magic online, but I'll try and look some things up to see.
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On November 30 2020 06:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Have you ever scumread TT this game Trfel? I don't think so? I had some questions for him yesterday that I'd still like him to answer. He's been kinda in the null/slightly town area.
I like his play, he was suspicious of Hapahauli yesterday without ever seeming to doubt the blue claim so that seems a bit suspect, knowing that Hapahauli is mafia. Otherwise, pending his answers to my questions, I don't really think he is mafia.
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On November 30 2020 06:24 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2020 08:55 Trfel wrote:On November 26 2020 04:24 Tictock wrote:On November 26 2020 04:05 Trfel wrote:On November 26 2020 04:03 Hapahauli wrote:
I think lynching into TT/FF is a bad idea based on recent posting. Neither of them really have that survivalist instinct that I'd associate with mafia in this position.
I once again would like Grack lynched. Yeah, I can get behind that. The main reason I would prefer lynching Fecalfeast to Grackaroni is that if Fecalfeast continues to play in this manner, I'm not sure he will be any easier to read in the future. I have higher hopes for Grackaroni to make his play more clear. Outside of that though I guess Grackaroni seems to have a higher chance of flipping mafia. I will submit Grackaroni as the lynch in case I end up being elected. If you do get elected plz kill FF over Grack. FF is unlikely to suddenly start playing more, Grack is probably readable after enough time Does this feel weird to anyone else? Tictock was scumreading Fecalfeast and townreading Grackaroni. On one hand, I could see Tictock trying to word his argument in a way that's persuasive to me, but on the other hand, shouldn't he be restating his reasons to scumread Fecalfeast and townread Grackaroni? On November 26 2020 04:49 Tictock wrote:
Resub FF/Sho? And this, which Tictock threw in 11 minutes to end of day. If he didn't want Grackaroni to die (by the way, he just said a few posts previously that he was okay with Grackaroni dying), shouldn't he prefer killing Fecalfeast to ShoCkeyy? Given that he actually has reasons to suspect Fecalfeast and ShoCkeyy is just a lurker? Why did you back off from this one? I never backed off. This wasn't a scumread, this was an "I'm looking into you." He just never answered 
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On November 30 2020 06:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 06:24 Trfel wrote:On November 30 2020 06:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Have you ever scumread TT this game Trfel? I don't think so? I had some questions for him yesterday that I'd still like him to answer. He's been kinda in the null/slightly town area. I like his play, he was suspicious of Hapahauli yesterday without ever seeming to doubt the blue claim so that seems a bit suspect, knowing that Hapahauli is mafia. Otherwise, pending his answers to my questions, I don't really think he is mafia. You realise that i dont know if Hapa is mafia so this doesnt mean much to me. Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 06:25 Trfel wrote:On November 30 2020 06:24 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 27 2020 08:55 Trfel wrote:On November 26 2020 04:24 Tictock wrote:On November 26 2020 04:05 Trfel wrote:On November 26 2020 04:03 Hapahauli wrote:
I think lynching into TT/FF is a bad idea based on recent posting. Neither of them really have that survivalist instinct that I'd associate with mafia in this position.
I once again would like Grack lynched. Yeah, I can get behind that. The main reason I would prefer lynching Fecalfeast to Grackaroni is that if Fecalfeast continues to play in this manner, I'm not sure he will be any easier to read in the future. I have higher hopes for Grackaroni to make his play more clear. Outside of that though I guess Grackaroni seems to have a higher chance of flipping mafia. I will submit Grackaroni as the lynch in case I end up being elected. If you do get elected plz kill FF over Grack. FF is unlikely to suddenly start playing more, Grack is probably readable after enough time Does this feel weird to anyone else? Tictock was scumreading Fecalfeast and townreading Grackaroni. On one hand, I could see Tictock trying to word his argument in a way that's persuasive to me, but on the other hand, shouldn't he be restating his reasons to scumread Fecalfeast and townread Grackaroni? On November 26 2020 04:49 Tictock wrote:
Resub FF/Sho? And this, which Tictock threw in 11 minutes to end of day. If he didn't want Grackaroni to die (by the way, he just said a few posts previously that he was okay with Grackaroni dying), shouldn't he prefer killing Fecalfeast to ShoCkeyy? Given that he actually has reasons to suspect Fecalfeast and ShoCkeyy is just a lurker? Why did you back off from this one? I never backed off. This wasn't a scumread, this was an "I'm looking into you." He just never answered Shouldn't a no-answer ring some bells? Yeah, I get that. You just asked me what my read was though :/ Which at this point does involve associations.
I assumed we would be lynching between me and Hapahauli today, but I suppose it doesn't have to be that way. In fact, actually, it makes sense to not do it that way. So we probably should lynch between Tictock and Vivax today.
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Sorry, I got excited and forgot to finish answering. The no-answer did surprise me, but I'm not going to scumread him for it. I'll just ask him again next time I see him around.
I'm (obviously) still suspicious of Tictock, but overall I have felt his play to be decently towny. Lemme dive their filters again.
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Actually, wait I'm being dumb, Tictock did answer... My apologies. Dunno what's up with me today.
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Tictock
+ Show Spoiler [analysis] +On November 26 2020 03:37 Tictock wrote:
Honestly reading the more recent bit of Hapa's filter I can see him being mafia.
His vote for Trfel as mayor is a bit weird and weak, says he is the "logical" choice. Scumread on Grack due to him campaigning for mayor and "soft-pushing" Trfel. I have a hard time believing Hapa has this good of a townread on Trfel.
Also does not seem that he has sus on Rayn so I'm not clear why Hapa would prefer Trfel>Rayn Tictock was suspecting Hapahauli earlier. However, Hapahauli then fell out of his POE, which was Jockmcplop and ShoCkeyy: On November 27 2020 14:08 Tictock wrote:
It occurs to me that I have basically poe'd myself down to Jock/Sho
That...seems reasonable actually.
Glanced through Sho's filter and dont get much from it. It seems like he might just be following thread sentiment with his reads but I am not really able to go check right now. And says he doesn't like Hapahauli's case on Vivax: On November 27 2020 14:41 Tictock wrote:
Yea, the more I look at Hapa's case on Vivax I don't think it holds any water.
I don't see why a mafia!vivax would push away from a mislynch on someone he has only stated is a null read.
Going to look into the Jock stuff tomorrow. However, since this is most of what Hapahauli did, why did Tictock stop suspecting Hapahauli? For that matter, same about Vivax? On November 28 2020 10:03 Tictock wrote:
Was kinda a joke, would probably be the worst scum team for town to deal with. Though I would love to find solid reasons to keep the paranoia at Bay.
Honestly I am not totally sure how to read them well. I have only played with Hapa once and I was mafia so him not feeling as obviuse town as I was him that game is not a good basis for a read. Still that feeling and not really liking/agreeing with his reads this game has me a little sus.
As for Rayn I have been able to see where Rayn is coming from in general and have agreed with his reads, so is most likely town. However his play does feel in line with his mafia play in that he doesn't have as clear a focus as I tend to see him have and was willing to do what other people wanted over his own prefferrance as Mayor. None of that is really sufficient to call him scum but it does keep me from having a lock town read on him.
Right now I do not understand where Rayn is coming from and disagree with his reads but am wanting to see his responses before I go much further on that.
And just for a disclaimer: None of this effects the current state of the game where we should be lynching Jock kus he is super likely to flip mafia. Here, Tictock is suspicious of Hapahauli despite Hapahauli being an (at the time) un-cc'd blue. On November 29 2020 09:35 Tictock wrote:
Damn, that sucks.
I talked about my Hapa read with you already Trfel? Plus the roleblock thing seemed legit, even though you could argue Hapa was using that as cover to dodge the game. It's a weird time though and we just lynched a townie who had disappeared so prob not a good metric. And this. If this is true, why did he post that he was still suspicious of Hapahauli?
Vivax
+ Show Spoiler [analysis] +As previously mentioned, I don't like how Vivax keeps throwing suspicion at Alakaslam for his first page of filter and then backs off when he's "caught up" for no other apparent reason.
This is pending an answer from Vivax.
Honestly that's my only real thought about Vivax's filter, at a quick glance anyway.
Conclusion
I don't really know I'm waiting for an (important) answer from Vivax, I'd like to spend some time talking with both of them more to try and figure this out. Vivax has been quite lazy lately, which is a bit disappointing, and fits his lazy mafia meta. However, Tictock's explanation for his read change on Vivax and Hapahauli doesn't seem to match.
I think right now I'd prefer lynching Tictock due to the Hapahauli and Vivax read changes. But other than that, Tictock feels like town to me. It's close.
@raynpelikoneet: I know you didn't ask for my read on Hapahauli, I meant that because Hapahauli is almost guaranteed mafia to me, it's essentially flipped associations. Therefore, it's important for (at least) me to consider associations with Hapahauli in my reads. Caveat is that I'm abysmal at associations But still.
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On second thought (I guess third thought, really), it's probably better to lynch between me and Hapahauli. It's confusing though Once Hapahauli claims his role I can claim mine and then it'll be easier to discuss together.
Good night raynpelikoneet. I assume it's okay for me to claim my role once Hapahauli claims his?
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On November 30 2020 07:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 06:32 Trfel wrote:
I assumed we would be lynching between me and Hapahauli today, but I suppose it doesn't have to be that way. In fact, actually, it makes sense to not do it that way. So we probably should lynch between Tictock and Vivax today. If you know -- as you seem to know, that hapa is at least almost 100% mafia, why do you prefer this? It's a role thing, I assume you want me to tell you later? It's important though, so I'll be happy to discuss it whenever you want. Plus as I added in my previous post, my reasoning was slightly flawed.
Once Hapahauli claims his "role" I'll work out which option is mathematically superior.
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Interesting.
I am Jailkeeper.
I targeted Hapahauli N1, to try and save him from getting shot.. I targeted Fecalfeast N2 to try and roleblock the mafia night kill, however I was roleblocked.
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Regardless of Hapahauli's alignment, mafia knows there is a jailkeeper because Hapahauli claimed roleblock (town roleblocker is not a possible role). If Hapahauli is town, assuming mafia didn't roleblock him (very likely), then his roleblock claim indicates to them that there is a jailkeeper who did. If Hapahauli is mafia, which is my current belief, then he got roleblocked and thus knows there is a town jailkeeper.
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On November 30 2020 08:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 08:14 Trfel wrote:
Regardless of Hapahauli's alignment, mafia knows there is a jailkeeper because Hapahauli claimed roleblock (town roleblocker is not a possible role). If Hapahauli is town, assuming mafia didn't roleblock him (very likely), then his roleblock claim indicates to them that there is a jailkeeper who did. If Hapahauli is mafia, which is my current belief, then he got roleblocked and thus knows there is a town jailkeeper. why does mafia always know there is a jailkeeper?can you explain it to me as i am dumb and 5y? Mafia knows there is a jailkeeper because Hapahauli claimed roleblock.
If Hapahauli is town, mafia sees a random roleblock claim from town (assuming they didn't roleblock Hapahauli themselves, which is likely; there are a lot of players in the game; if they happened to somehow roleblock Hapahauli as well, then idk). As a result, they know that a townie was roleblocked (they wouldn't lie about it) and that they didn't do it, so there has to be a town roleblocker, the only option being a jailkeeper.
If Hapahauli is mafia, assuming mafia didn't roleblock him (which would be a..... strange move to say the least), then mafia!Hapahauli got roleblocked, so he knows there is a town roleblocker. Which again, has to be a jailkeeper.
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On November 30 2020 07:05 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 07:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 30 2020 06:32 Trfel wrote:
I assumed we would be lynching between me and Hapahauli today, but I suppose it doesn't have to be that way. In fact, actually, it makes sense to not do it that way. So we probably should lynch between Tictock and Vivax today. If you know -- as you seem to know, that hapa is at least almost 100% mafia, why do you prefer this? It's a role thing, I assume you want me to tell you later? It's important though, so I'll be happy to discuss it whenever you want. Plus as I added in my previous post, my reasoning was slightly flawed. Once Hapahauli claims his "role" I'll work out which option is mathematically superior. Going back to this. Assuming that me and Hapahauli can't be town together (which I suppose there is still a slim possibility... I never understand setup stuff) and assuming that raynpelikoneet is town (not guaranteed but it'd be one heck of a game for him to be mafia here):
One mafia between me and Hapahauli, one mafia between me and Tictock. Mafia is guaranteed to have a roleblocker, as I was roleblocked (unless I'm mafia, but that doesn't affect this I don't think?). Assuming that between me and Hapahauli the mafia percent is 50% each, and same between Vivax and Tictock.
(1) Lynch me first, if I'm mafia, then 50/50 for Tictock/Vivax. I don't believe having a Mad Hatter helps here.
(2) Lynch me first, if I'm town, gg.
(3) Lynch Hapahauli first, if he's mafia, if he's the roleblocker, the game is won. I can use my Jailkeeper ability to roleblock one of Tictock/Vivax and claim which. If someone dies at night, then we know the other one is mafia and delivered the night kill. If no one dies, then we gain a mislynch and we can lynch both players.
(4) Lynch Hapahauli first, if he's mafia but not roleblocker, 50/50 between Vivax and Tictock.
(5) Lynch Hapahauli first, if he's town, gg.
Case 1: 50% likelihood, 50% chance to win after. Total: 25%
Case 2: 50% likelihood, 0% chance to win after. Total: 0%
Case 3: 25% likelihood, 100% chance to win after. Total: 25%
Case 4: 25% likelihood, 50% chance to win after. Total: 25%
Case 5: 50% likelihood, 0% chance to win after. Total: 0%
Thus, lynching me first provides a 25% chance to win. Lynching Hapahauli first provides a 50% chance to win. This isn't an argument to lynch Hapahauli instead of me  as funny as that now seems. But together, lynching between me and Hapahauli has a 37.5% chance of winning.
(6) Lynch Vivax or Tictock first, if town, gg (they're the same role, doesn't matter which mathematically speaking).
(7) Lynch Vivax or Tictock first, if mafia, if roleblocker, then we win. I can use Jailkeeper on Hapahauli to roleblock the night kill, gaining a mislynch so both can be lynched.
(8) Lynch Vivax or Tictock first, if mafia but not roleblocker, then it's a 50/50 between me and Hapahauli still.
Case 6: 50% likelihood, 0% chance to win after. Total: 0%
Case 7: 25% likelihood, 100% chance to win after. Total: 25%
Case 8: 25% likelihood, 50% chance to win after. Total: 12.5%
Thus, lynching between Vivax and Tictock also provides a 37.5% chance to win. And this is entirely meaningless But hey, I had to try.
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On November 30 2020 08:30 Hapahauli wrote:
Trfel - talk to me about this "you or me" thing. Why does one of us have to be mafia?
Obviously throw out everything I'm about to say if we have another blue claim, but 2 mafia + Evil Mastermind is a fucking disaster for town without a lot of blue-role backup. In my view, you're confirmed town with FF. Yes, I agree that that is a terrible setup for town. And honestly, this is where things get complicated for me with the whole setup thing.
2 mafia, 1 evil mastermind, 7 town seems like a really rough setup. However, the bodyguard also confirms a town. Going down to 6 town when (presumably) the evil mastermind recruits a town, if all of us are blue you are saying that 4/6 town in the game are confirmed? Three blues and a bodyguard? That seems a bit ridiculous to me.
I agree that maybe that's actually more balanced... it just feels excessive? I've only ever seen three blues in a non-mason game once before I think, mayyyybe twice... but last time it happened, I think we would have been more likely to win the game if it wasn't for having three blues because that made one of the blues doubt the alignment of another.
I guess it's not for sure but it seems likely, setup-wise? Because that would be so many confirmed town. Also, in a setup with so much KP, would they really put more KP in the game? I would have maybe expected another doctor or something to try and gain town an extra mislynch, but more KP seems strange.
I dunno for sure. I feel like you are towny otherwise, I looked through your filter and I don't see good reasons to call you mafia... But it's really really hard for me to see four confirmed town in a 10-player game.
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It's an interesting setup for sure, and one that (in this case) makes for a fun and interesting game... but I don't think it's a good setup for future games. It's just so swingy, and I think this game working out okay relied on the exact perfect lynch Day 1.
I guess the fact that it's already such a weird setup makes me slightly hesitant to try and make reads off of setup things? It's usually correct but also sometimes it can lead to games being lost... like the game that had two town jailkeepers or whatever it was (Palmar and Blazinghand I believe), it required host intervention to stop town from lynching both in succession.
But it still just seems like so much confirmed town.......
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On November 30 2020 08:42 Tictock wrote:
What is wrong with me removing Hapa from my PoE due to being an UnCC'd blue role yet still speculating the possibility of him being mafia?
In other news Sho is a weird kill... not totally sure what I make of it yet but seems like that points to Hapa being scum to me. I say that as I feel like a Sho kill indicates mafia was blue hunting.
As I assume we should have All claims happen today, I am VT.
And I will be decently happy if my yolo scum team D1 is correct. I guess it's whatever if you don't see anything wrong with it, to me a POE means you're pretty darn sure everyone else is town though?
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On November 30 2020 08:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 08:48 Hapahauli wrote:On November 27 2020 06:17 Hapahauli wrote:On November 27 2020 06:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 27 2020 06:11 Hapahauli wrote:On November 27 2020 06:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am thinking if i can actually solve the game right now. Mechanically speaking, a VT. It would mean that in the remainder of the town, there would be 1-2 blue claims (given the 2 scum + evil mastermind, there is likely another town blue floating around to give the town a chance), in addition to 1 confirmed bodyguard claim. Pretty hard for scum to overcome. what? If I was mayor (in your position), I'd want to be VT, because it would be slightly easier for me to "solve" the game from my perspective in a mass claim situation. If you are referring to whether or not a mayor should be VT or Blue in general, it just depends on the blue role we are talking about. Mayor CPR doc is obviously insane. Mayor JK is pretty insane. Mayor [investigative role] is pretty good, though that is unlikely given Slam's flip. I dont get it even now :o Haha, guess you're stupid!
(jk.. I don't get it either )
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On November 30 2020 08:53 Hapahauli wrote:
And running for mayor is pretty insane with vigi, since I could shoot someone and instantly confirm the mayor role as town.
Mad Hatter is the only damn role in the game that I wouldn't run for mayor, because I basically can't use the fucking role if I'm mayor. Huh, interesting..........
So you didn't run for mayor purely because of your Mad Hatter role? In that, you were hoping to die and take someone out with you?
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On November 30 2020 08:57 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 08:56 Trfel wrote:On November 30 2020 08:53 Hapahauli wrote:
And running for mayor is pretty insane with vigi, since I could shoot someone and instantly confirm the mayor role as town.
Mad Hatter is the only damn role in the game that I wouldn't run for mayor, because I basically can't use the fucking role if I'm mayor. Huh, interesting.......... So you didn't run for mayor purely because of your Mad Hatter role? In that, you were hoping to die and take someone out with you? Correct. My view was that: 1) I wanted to actually use my role, and/or; 2) If mafia was smart enough to pick up on that from the setup, I basically was guaranteed to stay alive and dodge shots, regardless of whether or not I was "protected". Huh. Interesting. Dunno what that means for the current situation, but interesting for sure.
I've got to think about this. Raynpelikoneet seems town, but he's also a really strong mafia player. Hapahauli seems town, but his claim seems like it would make for quite an extreme setup.
Then there's Tictock and Vivax....
I don't even know where to begin
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So Hapahauli....
After you claimed blue, why do you think mafia didn't kill you and also didn't roleblock you?
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EPT
