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[M][N]Oil Futures Mafia - Page 5

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GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 03:24 GMT
#779
On May 01 2020 12:14 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 12:11 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 08:03 Vivax wrote:
On May 01 2020 07:59 Trfel wrote:
Vivax, who is your top scumread right now?


GB, Shockeyy is up close.

I'd like Shockeyy to continue his inquiry into Slam though.
I didn't finish looking at EoD from a lynch derailing perspective and wagon analysis, but rayn's switch looks bad to me. I thought he was as confident as me on GB.


LOL Vivax, then finish EoD because it makes no sense to keep calling me scum right now. It should be obvious to you
I'm sorry, care to explain why? I'm not seeing it, what makes it so obvious?


Why would I bother fleshing out my thoughts in the thread if I'm being lynched? Why wouldn't I try to deflect my lynch into any other target? Why wouldn't I hammer Kurumi after he came to the thread and acted so poorly against his lynched? I had an excuse to save myself

I don't understand how you can't 100% see me as town there
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 03:27 GMT
#781
On May 01 2020 07:02 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 05:19 ShoCkeyy wrote:
You went from this

On May 01 2020 03:59 Alakaslam wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: GlowingBear


to this

On May 01 2020 04:43 Alakaslam wrote:
I now have GB as top town.


in a span of an hour, why the sudden change of heart?

Judging from your interactions with GB you completely thought of him as town before the above post. You never really interacted with GB, you just called him homboy in a couple of posts immediately then talked about GB with other people when GB stopped posting.

Then all the sudden asked for reasons why you should vote for GB.

Idk but your interaction timeline just seems off about when it comes to GB, especially your voting pattern.


This is actually a good question.


Why do you want so much to paint me as scum now? You're taking every oportunity to throw suspicions at me.
How about YOU tell me why I'm mafia?
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 03:28 GMT
#782
On May 01 2020 06:40 Fecalfeast wrote:
If there's a vig i would be super ok with a shot within gb shockey and chez


I'm not mafia.
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 03:30 GMT
#783
On May 01 2020 06:31 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 06:26 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I mean, you're asking how I did it, the answer is in your post, I never stopped scum reading Koshi? What makes that super scummy? seems like very straight forward game play to me. I don't know what kind of result you're looking for here. I mean you were in my top four list of being possible scum.

I didn't want to label you as scum, but you seem really protective of Koshi.


I still don't understand how his entrance made him mafia in your eyes and nobody else does either, I think. That's because you dodged the question by saying it was a vote of pressure.

Rayn you will have to explain to me why you didn't keep your vote on GB.


How do you read rayn right now, Vivax?
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 03:35 GMT
#785
Alright,

Slam reevaluating me makes him probably town. Trfel is being consistently interested in solving the game which makes him town too. FF is town.
Vivax was town for me but the way he is approaching me doesn't feel right. I need him to answer my questions.
Jock is probably town because I hardly believe mafia would AFK and not vote.

Koshi is mafia because he has been misrepresenting every thing I post to have me lynched and I have no idea what he thinks of other players. All he has done is pointing out how bad he doesn't like me. It's a forced tunnel.
Rayn is mafia for the reasons I've already told.

No idea about either Chezinu and Grack.

I guess that's all?
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 03:41 GMT
#786
On May 01 2020 12:33 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 12:24 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 12:14 Trfel wrote:
On May 01 2020 12:11 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 08:03 Vivax wrote:
On May 01 2020 07:59 Trfel wrote:
Vivax, who is your top scumread right now?


GB, Shockeyy is up close.

I'd like Shockeyy to continue his inquiry into Slam though.
I didn't finish looking at EoD from a lynch derailing perspective and wagon analysis, but rayn's switch looks bad to me. I thought he was as confident as me on GB.


LOL Vivax, then finish EoD because it makes no sense to keep calling me scum right now. It should be obvious to you
I'm sorry, care to explain why? I'm not seeing it, what makes it so obvious?


Why would I bother fleshing out my thoughts in the thread if I'm being lynched? Why wouldn't I try to deflect my lynch into any other target? Why wouldn't I hammer Kurumi after he came to the thread and acted so poorly against his lynched? I had an excuse to save myself

I don't understand how you can't 100% see me as town there
Come to think of it, why didn't you vote to save yourself? I guess it doesn't make you mafia since Kurumi flipped town but it seems so weird to not vote to save yourself, even if the alternative is your top townread. I've done that before. Like to me it almost only makes sense as mafia so you could say "look, I didn't vote to save myself!" because there's no reason as town not to vote to save yourself?

Can you explain why your reads were flopping around so much towards the deadline? You were first convinced on Jockmcplop and Alakaslam being mafia, then kinda thinking raynpelikoneet might be mafia. Then writing a half-case on raynpelikoneet, then deciding that mafia was Koshi and Jockmcplop and raynpelikoneet or Alakaslam. Seems like a few unexplained leaps.


Slam felt he was uninterested in the game and just surviving. He was asking to much to be seen as not giving a damn how he looks and, therefore, he should be town? It felt forced and I started to believe he was mafia for this. Now I see that he is constantly reevaluating reads once new information is displayed in thread, so he might be town for this.

I just posted what I think of Koshi and I've already admitted I had an associative read between him and jock. He started hard defending jock and hard scumreading me out of nowhere, distorting everything I was saying. I was already wary of rayn but I've also explaine here why. I flip my reads very frequently, it shouldn't be a surprise.

I didn't move to Kurumi because I thought he was town, and people could've changed to any other target that I could get behind.
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 03:43 GMT
#787
Actually, to be honest, I didn't care much if I was gonna be the lynch because I've done everything I could and because of IRL issues I cannot be really invested in this game so, if after everything I've done near EoD wasn't enough to convince I'm town, I'd let town choose whatever they wanted.
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 03:43 GMT
#788
I gotta sleep now. I'll answer any other question tomorrow.
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 03:44 GMT
#790
On May 01 2020 12:43 Trfel wrote:
Okay, thanks again. I'm slightly busy now but I will take a closer look at what you have posted later tonight. Feel better soon.


Thanks Trfel
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 14:37 GMT
#844
On May 01 2020 13:14 ShoCkeyy wrote:
GB what are your thoughts on me?


I never know what you really are, Shockey. You're really hard to read. But if I had to choose now I'd say you're town.
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 14:39 GMT
#845
On May 01 2020 13:48 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 12:20 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 12:10 Trfel wrote:
For the record, Jockmcplop was joking in both of his posts. Thanks for explaining though.

Care to summarize why raynpelikoneet is mafia to you? I skimmed your filter for it again and I don't believe you ever clearly laid it out. No rush, if you want to play Diplomacy first I'll be here a few hours.
I've already talked about rayn, but okay, I'll flesh out.

I think rayn has been under the radar and not actually taking hard stances.
Early day1 he said you had a thought process that made you look townie. What is so particularly townie in thinking "I'm lazy haha won't be posting much okay lol"? There's nothing townie to read into it. His read seemed forced.
Then he later went on the game just talking a bit but without taking any hard stance. He was suspicious of Kurumi but didn't push his lynch. He decided to vote for jock but I couldn't find anything in his filter where he said why jock was mafia other than "jock can look very townie when he is mafia". That's not a reason to vote him.
He then went under the radar and only changed his vote to sheep Koshi on a faint reason to call me mafia. He decided I wasn't a good lynch today and went against Kurumi who we know is town.
it doesn't make sense, it feels rayn is just trying to survive. I thought that he might be blue because of this, I didn't really want to engage in a shitfest saying RAYN IS MAFIA WHARRGARBL.
But now, thinking about it, he is most likely mafia instead of blue.
To clarify the bolded red section, raynpelikoneet did vote for Jockmcplop over the vote/unvote thing on Koshi. The same reason you were scumreading Jockmcplop.

I'm sorry, maybe I'm just being blind here but I'm not really seeing it. I had a longer post written, I can discuss it further if you want, but the short of it is to me it felt like raynpelikoneet cared about who got lynched while if he was mafia, he could have justified parking his vote a lot of places (assuming you are town, since this is your argument, you being one of them). I'm far from 100% on raynpelikoneet being town, I just don't really see the reasons to scumread him that you've shared.

The rest of what GlowingBear has posted makes a lot more sense to me. I'll likely be around for a while if anyone wants to talk about anything, if I get bored though I may fall asleep.


I admit this does make sense, but I have yet to see a much more intense and invested gameplay from rayn to make me believe he is town
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 14:47 GMT
#847
On May 01 2020 14:11 Trfel wrote:
If I stop focusing on GlowingBear's alignment and look at others, I see Koshi being mafia a lot more easily than I see raynpelikoneet being mafia. But I'm listening to what people say about raynpelikoneet, it would be dumb to ignore.

Suspicious of Koshi because:
Says he likes ShoCkeyy possibly even less than GlowingBear, says he could move from GlowingBear to ShoCkeyy at the deadline, then doesn't do so.
Says he votes for the scummiest low-activity poster while voting GlowingBear instead of ShoCkeyy (after GlowingBear's string of update posts).
Mild "don't lynch Kurumi" post. Feels so mild-mannered for Koshi, who is usually such an aggressive poster. He doesn't seem to care much about who gets lynched between GlowingBear, his super scumread, and Kurumi, his townread.
Tells raynpelikoneet to keep voting for Kurumi while sticking on GlowingBear himself
Calls for vigilante shot on Chezinu instead of ShoCkeyy, who has been his secondary target previously

Thoughts?


The first three points and the last one are basically associative. As town, you can say you'd lynch someone that seems to be a wild card instead of his main scumread. I've done this dozens of time. Last game we've played together I lynched Kelsier over you, my top scumread. This is only a strong point IF Shockey is mafia. Whenever I'm fed up with lurkers I also prefer to lynch them over top scum reads.

The points where he keeps saying to lynch Kurumi instead of having me lynched is stronger, especially when he has been a lot tunneled on me. The strongest point is that Koshi hardly reevaluates his reads, he just assumed Jock=town/GB=mafia and went with it, interpreting every post under this conviction, instead of reevaluating his position with new information dropped in thread. Easy way to survive as mafia while still looking contributive.
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 14:50 GMT
#848
On May 01 2020 17:54 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 14:11 Trfel wrote:
If I stop focusing on GlowingBear's alignment and look at others, I see Koshi being mafia a lot more easily than I see raynpelikoneet being mafia. But I'm listening to what people say about raynpelikoneet, it would be dumb to ignore.

Suspicious of Koshi because:
Says he likes ShoCkeyy possibly even less than GlowingBear, says he could move from GlowingBear to ShoCkeyy at the deadline, then doesn't do so.
Says he votes for the scummiest low-activity poster while voting GlowingBear instead of ShoCkeyy (after GlowingBear's string of update posts).
Mild "don't lynch Kurumi" post. Feels so mild-mannered for Koshi, who is usually such an aggressive poster. He doesn't seem to care much about who gets lynched between GlowingBear, his super scumread, and Kurumi, his townread.
Tells raynpelikoneet to keep voting for Kurumi while sticking on GlowingBear himself
Calls for vigilante shot on Chezinu instead of ShoCkeyy, who has been his secondary target previously

Thoughts?


I think he has too much fight in him to be mafia. Mafia Koshi is a kind butterfly that occasionally backstabs you. More of a tonish read.

Chez shot is good. Though I could be swayed if he looked like he had more fun while shitposting.

Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 12:27 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 07:02 Vivax wrote:
On May 01 2020 05:19 ShoCkeyy wrote:
You went from this

On May 01 2020 03:59 Alakaslam wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: GlowingBear


to this

On May 01 2020 04:43 Alakaslam wrote:
I now have GB as top town.


in a span of an hour, why the sudden change of heart?

Judging from your interactions with GB you completely thought of him as town before the above post. You never really interacted with GB, you just called him homboy in a couple of posts immediately then talked about GB with other people when GB stopped posting.

Then all the sudden asked for reasons why you should vote for GB.

Idk but your interaction timeline just seems off about when it comes to GB, especially your voting pattern.


This is actually a good question.


Why do you want so much to paint me as scum now? You're taking every oportunity to throw suspicions at me.
How about YOU tell me why I'm mafia?


While I was fighting with Koshi over your alignment you were in the thread and instead of engaging you went and made an apologetic sounding summarish post.

If it wasn't already obvious that it is why I scumread you, then I can't help you.


I didn't make an apologetic summary list, I tried to have my reads on thread when people kept saying I had no information in my filter, although I believe I had enough. We were reaching deadline and we had to organize ourselves. I can't keep refreshing the page while fleshing out my reads. Come on, Vivax.
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 14:53 GMT
#849
On May 01 2020 20:12 Jockmcplop wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 01 2020 03:39 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 03:37 Koshi wrote:
On May 01 2020 03:31 Trfel wrote:
On May 01 2020 03:28 Fecalfeast wrote:
Slam acting serious makes me think he's town rn when normally I'd think it was scummy. That's weird.

Has gb done anything lately why do you want me to switch shockkeyy
GlowingBear is busy at work. He flailed at Koshi for a while, nothing super notable though.

Consider maybe switching to Kurumi? Mostly the same reasons as before. I just feel like Kurumi hasn't contributed much actual thought to the thread.

If Kurumi is mafia, what the fuck has gb been doing the first 40 hours? Mindmeld with mafia? Is that possible?

Like.... regardlrdd if gb is mafia or town. He kinda locked kurumi in as town. No?

You think town gb can have duch a strong tr on mafia kurumi?
I don't know, honestly I never understood "mindmeld" stuff. To me, agreeing with someone or having the same thoughts as someone never means they are confirmed town or anything like that.

Yes, I think GlowingBear could be wrong on Kurumi as town. I don't see why not?


Here's how I see the 'mindmeld' thing.
Its entirely meta based, or should be, from a town perspective.
There's one guy on MU who reliably mindmelds with me on day 1 more than once if we're both town. Like every single game. If it happens, I know to townread him.

Townreading someone off a mindmeld just because they said what you are thinking is absolutely terrible imo. If that's how you see the game, mafia just needs to make educated guesses at how you are seeing the game and get easy townreads.

I do like how GB reevaluated his read on me though, it would have been super easy for him to keep pushing a SR on me, especially because I still hadn't posted at that point, so even though i see his early townread on kurumi as a bit suspicious, he's probably a town lean for me.

also @glowingbear: + Show Spoiler +
the two koshi posts, although I don't need to, I feel I should explain. The first post was a joke with a joke vote. You probably think that's stupid, fair enough. The second post was sarcasm, as trfel pointed out. There was no way I could hard scumread koshi from what he had posted so far in the thread, i was being sarcastic. read this again carefully from the perspective that I am being sarcastic:
Nah I genuinely thought he was mafia after his one post and shockeyy saying that post made him mafia. I was convinced.

I get now that responding to people not understanding a joke vote with sarcasm that people might also not understand isn't smart. I take responsibility for that.


------------

About shockeyy:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 03:09 ShoCkeyy wrote:
GlowingBear: (3) Koshi, FecalFeast, Vivax
ShoCkeyy: (3) Alakaslam, Trfel, Raynpelikoneet

There's an obvious two mafia here. The third one can also be here, or just not voting, on some one else. But I definitely suspect two mafia here. Sorry Rayn, but I can't trust you on this. Given how probability works, and I know I'm not mafia; there's a very good and strong chance mafia is lined up here to lynch some one.


At first I really liked Fefe pushing that post of shockeyy's. I was almost scumreading shockeyy based on him simply not explaining the post at all, and it not really making sense from most points of view that I could summon up.
However, I think that's a really superficial reading and yes I'm sussing Fefe because of that.
That post does make sense if you consider that shockeyy is scumreading the people who started both wagons (koshi and slam) before he made this post, and also sussing other people who are on the wagons. I think its consistent with his previous reads that he would see the two wagons as containing two obvious scum. His vote was on koshi and he SRs slam who started a wagon on him. If you look at shockeyy's other reads it also makes sense to think that if one of koshi/slam is not scum, then someone else on the wagons would be.

TL:DR Shockeyy's 'two scum on these wagons' post makes perfect sense in the context of his other reads. I think I actually townread shockeyy for this.

Quotes to support:

+ Show Spoiler +
On April 30 2020 11:45 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 11:39 Fecalfeast wrote:
I got about halfway through actually reading the thread, have a big post made up of my thoughts and then..

Then I got to a post that I made that said the exact opposite of what I have written here....


what is going on here


maybe youre mafia?

First he suspects Fefe

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 01 2020 03:01 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Rayn, please just re-read the thread and the interactions between GB and Koshi. I feel like most people here don't read and just base decisions on others decisions. I'm putting pressure on Slam, because I personally think that Koshi and Slam are partners. Could Jock be in there? sure? But what GB is saying about Koshi relieving pressure on Jock is true. I personally hope that Jock didn't roll mafia again, but that Koshi play right there can be two things. True mafia work, or town work. Slam voting me, 15 mins after not wanting to vote for me screams setup play between the two for D2.


He already scumreads koshi and slam

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 01 2020 03:09 ShoCkeyy wrote:
GlowingBear: (3) Koshi, FecalFeast, Vivax
ShoCkeyy: (3) Alakaslam, Trfel, Raynpelikoneet

There's an obvious two mafia here. The third one can also be here, or just not voting, on some one else. But I definitely suspect two mafia here. Sorry Rayn, but I can't trust you on this. Given how probability works, and I know I'm not mafia; there's a very good and strong chance mafia is lined up here to lynch some one.

Then he makes this post. He suspects that slam and koshi are partners. However, he also suspects Fefe. From this its easy to see why he thinks that there's two scum on these wagons, unless you haven't looked in his ISO or read his posts properly.




I'm over the joke posts, it seems I was the only one who didn't get it. I didn't read Kurumi as town just because I thought we mindmelded in the early day1. It was ONE of the reasons why I felt he was town. But I've talked a lot about it.

What do you think of Vivax?
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 15:01 GMT
#851
On May 01 2020 20:31 Jockmcplop wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 01 2020 14:11 Trfel wrote:
If I stop focusing on GlowingBear's alignment and look at others, I see Koshi being mafia a lot more easily than I see raynpelikoneet being mafia. But I'm listening to what people say about raynpelikoneet, it would be dumb to ignore.

Suspicious of Koshi because:
Says he likes ShoCkeyy possibly even less than GlowingBear, says he could move from GlowingBear to ShoCkeyy at the deadline, then doesn't do so.
Says he votes for the scummiest low-activity poster while voting GlowingBear instead of ShoCkeyy (after GlowingBear's string of update posts).
..............
Calls for vigilante shot on Chezinu instead of ShoCkeyy, who has been his secondary target previously

Thoughts?


If this is suggesting koshi/shockeyy mafia I don't think so. Shockeyy's hard scumread on koshi is too much for early bussing imo.

Otherwise I think the best part of this case is here:+ Show Spoiler +

Mild "don't lynch Kurumi" post. Feels so mild-mannered for Koshi, who is usually such an aggressive poster. He doesn't seem to care much about who gets lynched between GlowingBear, his super scumread, and Kurumi, his townread.
Tells raynpelikoneet to keep voting for Kurumi while sticking on GlowingBear himself


Its really hard to parse town motivation from these two posts. It looks like there's a contradiction, like don't townread kurumi for that post he made but we shouldn't lynch him but don't stop voting him based on that post.
If you didn't want kurumi lynched, your objective should be to stop town from lynching him. why would you tell rayn to ignore that post and suggest that kurumi might be mafia for posting it?


Exactly what I thought about Trfel's post. Good
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 15:19 GMT
#854
On May 01 2020 23:57 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 23:50 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 17:54 Vivax wrote:
On May 01 2020 14:11 Trfel wrote:
If I stop focusing on GlowingBear's alignment and look at others, I see Koshi being mafia a lot more easily than I see raynpelikoneet being mafia. But I'm listening to what people say about raynpelikoneet, it would be dumb to ignore.

Suspicious of Koshi because:
Says he likes ShoCkeyy possibly even less than GlowingBear, says he could move from GlowingBear to ShoCkeyy at the deadline, then doesn't do so.
Says he votes for the scummiest low-activity poster while voting GlowingBear instead of ShoCkeyy (after GlowingBear's string of update posts).
Mild "don't lynch Kurumi" post. Feels so mild-mannered for Koshi, who is usually such an aggressive poster. He doesn't seem to care much about who gets lynched between GlowingBear, his super scumread, and Kurumi, his townread.
Tells raynpelikoneet to keep voting for Kurumi while sticking on GlowingBear himself
Calls for vigilante shot on Chezinu instead of ShoCkeyy, who has been his secondary target previously

Thoughts?


I think he has too much fight in him to be mafia. Mafia Koshi is a kind butterfly that occasionally backstabs you. More of a tonish read.

Chez shot is good. Though I could be swayed if he looked like he had more fun while shitposting.

On May 01 2020 12:27 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 07:02 Vivax wrote:
On May 01 2020 05:19 ShoCkeyy wrote:
You went from this

On May 01 2020 03:59 Alakaslam wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: GlowingBear


to this

On May 01 2020 04:43 Alakaslam wrote:
I now have GB as top town.


in a span of an hour, why the sudden change of heart?

Judging from your interactions with GB you completely thought of him as town before the above post. You never really interacted with GB, you just called him homboy in a couple of posts immediately then talked about GB with other people when GB stopped posting.

Then all the sudden asked for reasons why you should vote for GB.

Idk but your interaction timeline just seems off about when it comes to GB, especially your voting pattern.


This is actually a good question.


Why do you want so much to paint me as scum now? You're taking every oportunity to throw suspicions at me.
How about YOU tell me why I'm mafia?


While I was fighting with Koshi over your alignment you were in the thread and instead of engaging you went and made an apologetic sounding summarish post.

If it wasn't already obvious that it is why I scumread you, then I can't help you.


I didn't make an apologetic summary list, I tried to have my reads on thread when people kept saying I had no information in my filter, although I believe I had enough. We were reaching deadline and we had to organize ourselves. I can't keep refreshing the page while fleshing out my reads. Come on, Vivax.


Actually I just realized you didn't vote Kurumi to save yourself. That makes you more likely to be town. Dumb town, but town.
Makes slams EoD vote juggling more likely to be from scum since that'd mean both wagons were town.


I'm no dumb
You dumbest

Care to explain what was so bad about that reads list of mine? There's nothing apologetic in it.

I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 15:24 GMT
#855
On May 02 2020 00:06 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 23:53 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 20:12 Jockmcplop wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 01 2020 03:39 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 03:37 Koshi wrote:
On May 01 2020 03:31 Trfel wrote:
On May 01 2020 03:28 Fecalfeast wrote:
Slam acting serious makes me think he's town rn when normally I'd think it was scummy. That's weird.

Has gb done anything lately why do you want me to switch shockkeyy
GlowingBear is busy at work. He flailed at Koshi for a while, nothing super notable though.

Consider maybe switching to Kurumi? Mostly the same reasons as before. I just feel like Kurumi hasn't contributed much actual thought to the thread.

If Kurumi is mafia, what the fuck has gb been doing the first 40 hours? Mindmeld with mafia? Is that possible?

Like.... regardlrdd if gb is mafia or town. He kinda locked kurumi in as town. No?

You think town gb can have duch a strong tr on mafia kurumi?
I don't know, honestly I never understood "mindmeld" stuff. To me, agreeing with someone or having the same thoughts as someone never means they are confirmed town or anything like that.

Yes, I think GlowingBear could be wrong on Kurumi as town. I don't see why not?


Here's how I see the 'mindmeld' thing.
Its entirely meta based, or should be, from a town perspective.
There's one guy on MU who reliably mindmelds with me on day 1 more than once if we're both town. Like every single game. If it happens, I know to townread him.

Townreading someone off a mindmeld just because they said what you are thinking is absolutely terrible imo. If that's how you see the game, mafia just needs to make educated guesses at how you are seeing the game and get easy townreads.

I do like how GB reevaluated his read on me though, it would have been super easy for him to keep pushing a SR on me, especially because I still hadn't posted at that point, so even though i see his early townread on kurumi as a bit suspicious, he's probably a town lean for me.

also @glowingbear: + Show Spoiler +
the two koshi posts, although I don't need to, I feel I should explain. The first post was a joke with a joke vote. You probably think that's stupid, fair enough. The second post was sarcasm, as trfel pointed out. There was no way I could hard scumread koshi from what he had posted so far in the thread, i was being sarcastic. read this again carefully from the perspective that I am being sarcastic:
Nah I genuinely thought he was mafia after his one post and shockeyy saying that post made him mafia. I was convinced.

I get now that responding to people not understanding a joke vote with sarcasm that people might also not understand isn't smart. I take responsibility for that.


------------

About shockeyy:
On May 01 2020 03:09 ShoCkeyy wrote:
GlowingBear: (3) Koshi, FecalFeast, Vivax
ShoCkeyy: (3) Alakaslam, Trfel, Raynpelikoneet

There's an obvious two mafia here. The third one can also be here, or just not voting, on some one else. But I definitely suspect two mafia here. Sorry Rayn, but I can't trust you on this. Given how probability works, and I know I'm not mafia; there's a very good and strong chance mafia is lined up here to lynch some one.


At first I really liked Fefe pushing that post of shockeyy's. I was almost scumreading shockeyy based on him simply not explaining the post at all, and it not really making sense from most points of view that I could summon up.
However, I think that's a really superficial reading and yes I'm sussing Fefe because of that.
That post does make sense if you consider that shockeyy is scumreading the people who started both wagons (koshi and slam) before he made this post, and also sussing other people who are on the wagons. I think its consistent with his previous reads that he would see the two wagons as containing two obvious scum. His vote was on koshi and he SRs slam who started a wagon on him. If you look at shockeyy's other reads it also makes sense to think that if one of koshi/slam is not scum, then someone else on the wagons would be.

TL:DR Shockeyy's 'two scum on these wagons' post makes perfect sense in the context of his other reads. I think I actually townread shockeyy for this.

Quotes to support:

+ Show Spoiler +
On April 30 2020 11:45 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 11:39 Fecalfeast wrote:
I got about halfway through actually reading the thread, have a big post made up of my thoughts and then..

Then I got to a post that I made that said the exact opposite of what I have written here....


what is going on here


maybe youre mafia?

First he suspects Fefe

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 01 2020 03:01 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Rayn, please just re-read the thread and the interactions between GB and Koshi. I feel like most people here don't read and just base decisions on others decisions. I'm putting pressure on Slam, because I personally think that Koshi and Slam are partners. Could Jock be in there? sure? But what GB is saying about Koshi relieving pressure on Jock is true. I personally hope that Jock didn't roll mafia again, but that Koshi play right there can be two things. True mafia work, or town work. Slam voting me, 15 mins after not wanting to vote for me screams setup play between the two for D2.


He already scumreads koshi and slam

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 01 2020 03:09 ShoCkeyy wrote:
GlowingBear: (3) Koshi, FecalFeast, Vivax
ShoCkeyy: (3) Alakaslam, Trfel, Raynpelikoneet

There's an obvious two mafia here. The third one can also be here, or just not voting, on some one else. But I definitely suspect two mafia here. Sorry Rayn, but I can't trust you on this. Given how probability works, and I know I'm not mafia; there's a very good and strong chance mafia is lined up here to lynch some one.

Then he makes this post. He suspects that slam and koshi are partners. However, he also suspects Fefe. From this its easy to see why he thinks that there's two scum on these wagons, unless you haven't looked in his ISO or read his posts properly.




I'm over the joke posts, it seems I was the only one who didn't get it. I didn't read Kurumi as town just because I thought we mindmelded in the early day1. It was ONE of the reasons why I felt he was town. But I've talked a lot about it.

What do you think of Vivax?


I'm null on him at the moment. Basically I disagree with most of what he has written but for me and vivax that happens in most games so NAI. I'm open to him being scum, but for now I've put him in the 'read later when more information is available' pile. Grack and chez too.

The read I'm most struggling with at the moment is rayn. He isn't definitely town yet at all.

None of these are a priority for a day 2 lynch for me though.

I'm in a koshi/Fefe/slam world. Do you have any thoughts on that or anything else i've posted today?


I find hard to think of Vivax as NAI. He has posted a ton of information, there's a lot to draw out of it. Very different from Chez and Grack.

Yes, FF is town, period. I don't think you should put much thought on him.
Slam could be mafia because his "I DON'T CARE HOW I LOOK" thing looks forced, and he really isn't bringing information in thread. But he is consistently reevaluating his reads when new information is dropped in thread, which is a clear town trait.

I'd rather have rayn tomorrow. I have no reasons to believe he is town.
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 15:36 GMT
#858
On May 02 2020 00:24 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2020 00:19 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 23:57 Vivax wrote:
On May 01 2020 23:50 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 17:54 Vivax wrote:
On May 01 2020 14:11 Trfel wrote:
If I stop focusing on GlowingBear's alignment and look at others, I see Koshi being mafia a lot more easily than I see raynpelikoneet being mafia. But I'm listening to what people say about raynpelikoneet, it would be dumb to ignore.

Suspicious of Koshi because:
Says he likes ShoCkeyy possibly even less than GlowingBear, says he could move from GlowingBear to ShoCkeyy at the deadline, then doesn't do so.
Says he votes for the scummiest low-activity poster while voting GlowingBear instead of ShoCkeyy (after GlowingBear's string of update posts).
Mild "don't lynch Kurumi" post. Feels so mild-mannered for Koshi, who is usually such an aggressive poster. He doesn't seem to care much about who gets lynched between GlowingBear, his super scumread, and Kurumi, his townread.
Tells raynpelikoneet to keep voting for Kurumi while sticking on GlowingBear himself
Calls for vigilante shot on Chezinu instead of ShoCkeyy, who has been his secondary target previously

Thoughts?


I think he has too much fight in him to be mafia. Mafia Koshi is a kind butterfly that occasionally backstabs you. More of a tonish read.

Chez shot is good. Though I could be swayed if he looked like he had more fun while shitposting.

On May 01 2020 12:27 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 07:02 Vivax wrote:
On May 01 2020 05:19 ShoCkeyy wrote:
You went from this

On May 01 2020 03:59 Alakaslam wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: GlowingBear


to this

On May 01 2020 04:43 Alakaslam wrote:
I now have GB as top town.


in a span of an hour, why the sudden change of heart?

Judging from your interactions with GB you completely thought of him as town before the above post. You never really interacted with GB, you just called him homboy in a couple of posts immediately then talked about GB with other people when GB stopped posting.

Then all the sudden asked for reasons why you should vote for GB.

Idk but your interaction timeline just seems off about when it comes to GB, especially your voting pattern.


This is actually a good question.


Why do you want so much to paint me as scum now? You're taking every oportunity to throw suspicions at me.
How about YOU tell me why I'm mafia?


While I was fighting with Koshi over your alignment you were in the thread and instead of engaging you went and made an apologetic sounding summarish post.

If it wasn't already obvious that it is why I scumread you, then I can't help you.


I didn't make an apologetic summary list, I tried to have my reads on thread when people kept saying I had no information in my filter, although I believe I had enough. We were reaching deadline and we had to organize ourselves. I can't keep refreshing the page while fleshing out my reads. Come on, Vivax.


Actually I just realized you didn't vote Kurumi to save yourself. That makes you more likely to be town. Dumb town, but town.
Makes slams EoD vote juggling more likely to be from scum since that'd mean both wagons were town.


I'm no dumb
You dumbest

Care to explain what was so bad about that reads list of mine? There's nothing apologetic in it.



Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 17:54 Vivax wrote:
On May 01 2020 14:11 Trfel wrote:
If I stop focusing on GlowingBear's alignment and look at others, I see Koshi being mafia a lot more easily than I see raynpelikoneet being mafia. But I'm listening to what people say about raynpelikoneet, it would be dumb to ignore.

Suspicious of Koshi because:
Says he likes ShoCkeyy possibly even less than GlowingBear, says he could move from GlowingBear to ShoCkeyy at the deadline, then doesn't do so.
Says he votes for the scummiest low-activity poster while voting GlowingBear instead of ShoCkeyy (after GlowingBear's string of update posts).
Mild "don't lynch Kurumi" post. Feels so mild-mannered for Koshi, who is usually such an aggressive poster. He doesn't seem to care much about who gets lynched between GlowingBear, his super scumread, and Kurumi, his townread.
Tells raynpelikoneet to keep voting for Kurumi while sticking on GlowingBear himself
Calls for vigilante shot on Chezinu instead of ShoCkeyy, who has been his secondary target previously

Thoughts?


I think he has too much fight in him to be mafia. Mafia Koshi is a kind butterfly that occasionally backstabs you. More of a tonish read.

Chez shot is good. Though I could be swayed if he looked like he had more fun while shitposting.

On May 01 2020 12:27 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 01 2020 07:02 Vivax wrote:
On May 01 2020 05:19 ShoCkeyy wrote:
You went from this

On May 01 2020 03:59 Alakaslam wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: GlowingBear


to this

On May 01 2020 04:43 Alakaslam wrote:
I now have GB as top town.


in a span of an hour, why the sudden change of heart?

Judging from your interactions with GB you completely thought of him as town before the above post. You never really interacted with GB, you just called him homboy in a couple of posts immediately then talked about GB with other people when GB stopped posting.

Then all the sudden asked for reasons why you should vote for GB.

Idk but your interaction timeline just seems off about when it comes to GB, especially your voting pattern.


This is actually a good question.


Why do you want so much to paint me as scum now? You're taking every oportunity to throw suspicions at me.
How about YOU tell me why I'm mafia?


While I was fighting with Koshi over your alignment you were in the thread and instead of engaging you went and made an apologetic sounding summarish post.

If it wasn't already obvious that it is why I scumread you, then I can't help you.


Basically it looked like you felt pressured by Koshi for having little reads and while we were in the thread debating your alignment you ran off to scramble a few together.
In that context, it didn't feel natural.


Okay, and reading it now? How does it feel? Why does that make me mafia in any way?
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 01 2020 15:37 GMT
#859
Gotta go. I'll be back later today.
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
May 03 2020 04:49 GMT
#964
On May 02 2020 05:59 ShoCkeyy wrote:
There's only two possible scenarios with the information above, either they're trying to frame GB or GB is mafia.


This doesn't make any sense. You're mafia.

##Vote: Shockeyy
I'm adorable.
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