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[M][N] Holy Guardians - Chapter 2 - Page 5

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:29 GMT
#494
So basically, you're assuming he is irredeemable after the Shockey vote and hard-shipping him unless thread sentiment wildly changes?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:38 GMT
#500
That's a pretty decisive bus. The QT is fascinating to read.

Under a "sophisticated mafia" theory, it's probably actually Vivax who is the most likely candidate for a bus.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:39 GMT
#501
Vivax, I don't think either of us are really taking any of this super seriously.

I still think BC auto-dies tomorrow.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:45 GMT
#505
On April 07 2020 14:33 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2020 11:21 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On April 07 2020 11:01 Hapahauli wrote:
On April 07 2020 10:57 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On April 07 2020 10:44 Hapahauli wrote:
I have read all of your posts Shock.

Ultimately your alignment is a very important piece of that puzzle, and I'm gonna give you a hard time because I want to squeeze those juicy reads out of you.

So three questions for starters so we can begin to consolidate your opinions and feels:
1) Who is in your "do not lynch" bucket?
2) Who is in your "lynch" bucket?
3) Of Bucket #2, who is your top candidate and why? What makes them worse than other candidates?



1) rayn, hap, trfel
2) bloodycobbler, chezinu
3) havent decided, depends on night kill sadly.


What bucket is Vivax in?


It relates to third, I want to town lean him. But then again, one of the last ones to jump on the jock train, and decided to disappear right after the d1 post. Then he also says he doesn't mind killing a town. I'm on the fence.


I don't know what game you are reading. Prove me wrong that I called out Jock first right after my Trfel townread. You are making this about a vote position when everyone who would have been mafia on the Jock wagon had the hammer to lynch Hapa instead. Jock wagon is 200% all town.

Most posts after day end didn't make me feel like I had to chime in and I was relaxing after the kinda tense EoD before going to bed. And right now, BC looks townier to me, while you just look like superscum at this point.

Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 21:09 Vivax wrote:
On April 05 2020 21:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am just gonna say Vivax, if you think i would ever as mafia townread someone for absolutely nothing (i have weird reasons - for other people - to townread people at times as either alignment, but for nothing is not one of them), i dont think you know me that well. This is not even saying i can't be mafia it's just saying that reasoning of yours is absolutely idiotic.


But it wasn't an explicit townread, you just said there were only townies in the thread.

As for the other stuff, not convinced of Hapa, there's just too little in his filter to be able to jump to a conclusion. Needs to post more, until then null. And if you think his filter is alignment indicative already you are bad or mafia imo.

As for Jock, he really didn't do much besides sort of tunneling Trfel. There's this which could be regarded as looking at something else besides Trfel but it's just a whole bunch of nothing and also looks bad.

On April 05 2020 14:23 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 14:05 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I see something "off" but as of right now not alignment indicative. I just need to see more to swing either way.

Trfel / hap are where my eyes are focused atm


What do you think of Shockeyy's entrance? His tone seems weird to me. I don't know what that means for shockeyy though tbh.


It's like he thinks Shockey should look scummy but is afraid to say he thinks he does.


Btw now I can imagine the why of this.


This seems to be the gist of your suspicions on Shock, combined with the following:

On April 07 2020 15:21 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2020 15:10 Trfel wrote:
Vivax, why does BloodyC0bbler look townier now?


He's fluid in his re-evaluation and I like that he picked up on Shockeyyy's 'catch-up' being a tad too slow and disinterested for a game of this size, but especially disinterested. At EoD I was thinking myself of how we used to have D1s with 50-100 pages and then there's him struggling with 20 pages and trying to get peeps to vote Hapa.

Also because Shockeyy is climbing the olymp to mr. superscum much faster by flailing around posting disinformation.


So you think Shock is more likely to flip mafia for three reasons:
1) BC looks townier from his recent posting;
2) Shock is posting "disinformation";
3) Shock is promising to "catch-up" a ton but not really following through in a satisfying manner;

I get that, and understand why it is suspicious. However, I have looked rather extensively at Shock's previous town/mafia games this morning. He's lynchbaity in all of his games, but definitely shows enough competence as mafia (see the QT's I linked) to tell people what they want to hear and give concrete suspicions.

So all in all, I don't really see 2 and 3 as damning.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:48 GMT
#507
I also don't see how BC has been "fluid" at all with his reads.

His reads post tunnels me for sure, but he spends a lot of time in his posts:
a) "hedging" (repeated statements of "I could be wrong"), and;
b) establishing platforms to be suspicious of Chez and Shock.

I'm also not all that impressed by his analysis. He pitched last night's conversation between him and I as a "mutual" attempt to get reads from each other, but only really spent time pleasing me by answering my questions. He pitched very few questions to me, if at all.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:49 GMT
#508
Also, I tend not to give credit to players who give analysis when poked. Initiative is a townie trait, not answering questions.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:54 GMT
#511
*shrug*

If we get there, we get there.

Anyways, there's no sense in me tunneling BC more than I have. You know my thoughts.

Off to lunch. Back later.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 17:09 GMT
#519
My plan of holding the town hostage into lynching BC ain't going to work anymore sadly.

##Vote BloodyCobbler
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 17:16 GMT
#520
Shockey... the NK happened. Who's mafia?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 17:31 GMT
#524
My thoughts on Chez:

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=22#439
https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=23#441
https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=23#442
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 17:42 GMT
#528
hapa#1206
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 14:49 GMT
#575
On April 08 2020 15:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Welp, given that basically everyone thinks the game is solved and I know me + someone else dies at night. I sat my vote with my biggest scum read mixed with what Vivax said near end of night.


I'm not your biggest scumread?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 17:53 GMT
#577
On April 09 2020 02:46 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2020 23:49 Hapahauli wrote:
On April 08 2020 15:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Welp, given that basically everyone thinks the game is solved and I know me + someone else dies at night. I sat my vote with my biggest scum read mixed with what Vivax said near end of night.


I'm not your biggest scumread?


He literally posted a little bit before this that he was voting me. I don't get what is it with townie people just not reading the thread.


I know that he voted you.

I'm curious about the gap in explanation. I was his indisputably top scumread last night. Now I am not, and there is no explanation for why.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 19:56 GMT
#581
Thinking out loud...

If for whatever reason we mislynch today, we are in LYLO with 4 players (3 town v. 1 mafia) heading into Day 3. Normally, the optimal play would be to no-lynch to get the town down to 2 town v. 1 mafia for better lynching odds.

Unfortunately that is not possible due to the ruleset since town cannot no lynch.

HOWEVER, the ruleset has another quirk: people who do not vote get auto-modkilled.

Therefore, It is actually better for a townie to volunteer to not vote and get modkilled, since it would put the town in a better position in the event of a BC town flip.

Thoughts?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 19:58 GMT
#582
BC and Shockey, I want both of your thoughts on this.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 20:01 GMT
#583
Also worth noting that today is the only day we can make this play. It is too risky to do it at a potential LYLO, since mafia can "volunteer" to modkill himself but last minute hammer.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 20:28 GMT
#585
Well you likely have an alterior motive to dismiss it out of hand.

But from a "town BC" perspective, there are 3 players that could be mafia in this game: Shockey, myself, and Chez. It is simply impossible to lynch all three unless we employ a modkill strategy.

So from town BC perspective, why it is not a hypothetically bad idea for me to modkill myself?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 20:30 GMT
#586
Double lynches in general are very pro-town. So why not have town vote to kill one player, and maybe have a secondary vote count to have someone modkill themselves as the second "lynch"?

I'm all ears if you want to give me a reason for why you think its stupid.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 20:34 GMT
#587
Like in my ideal world, either one of Shockey or BC modkills themselves and we lynch the other.

But if town wants me to modkill myself, I'm totally game.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 20:37 GMT
#588
On April 09 2020 05:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 09 2020 04:56 Hapahauli wrote:
Thinking out loud...

If for whatever reason we mislynch today, we are in LYLO with 4 players (3 town v. 1 mafia) heading into Day 3. Normally, the optimal play would be to no-lynch to get the town down to 2 town v. 1 mafia for better lynching odds.

Unfortunately that is not possible due to the ruleset since town cannot no lynch.

HOWEVER, the ruleset has another quirk: people who do not vote get auto-modkilled.

Therefore, It is actually better for a townie to volunteer to not vote and get modkilled, since it would put the town in a better position in the event of a BC town flip.

Thoughts?


Yeah, no, same exact reaction to this post I did to Jock.



FYI, not the same reaction. You didn't vote Jock on Day 1
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
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