EPT[M][N] Holy Guardians - Chapter 2 - Page 5
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Under a "sophisticated mafia" theory, it's probably actually Vivax who is the most likely candidate for a bus. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I still think BC auto-dies tomorrow. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On April 07 2020 14:33 Vivax wrote: I don't know what game you are reading. Prove me wrong that I called out Jock first right after my Trfel townread. You are making this about a vote position when everyone who would have been mafia on the Jock wagon had the hammer to lynch Hapa instead. Jock wagon is 200% all town. Most posts after day end didn't make me feel like I had to chime in and I was relaxing after the kinda tense EoD before going to bed. And right now, BC looks townier to me, while you just look like superscum at this point. Btw now I can imagine the why of this. This seems to be the gist of your suspicions on Shock, combined with the following: On April 07 2020 15:21 Vivax wrote: He's fluid in his re-evaluation and I like that he picked up on Shockeyyy's 'catch-up' being a tad too slow and disinterested for a game of this size, but especially disinterested. At EoD I was thinking myself of how we used to have D1s with 50-100 pages and then there's him struggling with 20 pages and trying to get peeps to vote Hapa. Also because Shockeyy is climbing the olymp to mr. superscum much faster by flailing around posting disinformation. So you think Shock is more likely to flip mafia for three reasons: 1) BC looks townier from his recent posting; 2) Shock is posting "disinformation"; 3) Shock is promising to "catch-up" a ton but not really following through in a satisfying manner; I get that, and understand why it is suspicious. However, I have looked rather extensively at Shock's previous town/mafia games this morning. He's lynchbaity in all of his games, but definitely shows enough competence as mafia (see the QT's I linked) to tell people what they want to hear and give concrete suspicions. So all in all, I don't really see 2 and 3 as damning. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
His reads post tunnels me for sure, but he spends a lot of time in his posts: a) "hedging" (repeated statements of "I could be wrong"), and; b) establishing platforms to be suspicious of Chez and Shock. I'm also not all that impressed by his analysis. He pitched last night's conversation between him and I as a "mutual" attempt to get reads from each other, but only really spent time pleasing me by answering my questions. He pitched very few questions to me, if at all. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
If we get there, we get there. Anyways, there's no sense in me tunneling BC more than I have. You know my thoughts. Off to lunch. Back later. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
##Vote BloodyCobbler | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=22#439 https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=23#441 https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=23#442 | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On April 08 2020 15:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Welp, given that basically everyone thinks the game is solved and I know me + someone else dies at night. I sat my vote with my biggest scum read mixed with what Vivax said near end of night. I'm not your biggest scumread? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On April 09 2020 02:46 ShoCkeyy wrote: He literally posted a little bit before this that he was voting me. I don't get what is it with townie people just not reading the thread. I know that he voted you. I'm curious about the gap in explanation. I was his indisputably top scumread last night. Now I am not, and there is no explanation for why. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
If for whatever reason we mislynch today, we are in LYLO with 4 players (3 town v. 1 mafia) heading into Day 3. Normally, the optimal play would be to no-lynch to get the town down to 2 town v. 1 mafia for better lynching odds. Unfortunately that is not possible due to the ruleset since town cannot no lynch. HOWEVER, the ruleset has another quirk: people who do not vote get auto-modkilled. Therefore, It is actually better for a townie to volunteer to not vote and get modkilled, since it would put the town in a better position in the event of a BC town flip. Thoughts? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
But from a "town BC" perspective, there are 3 players that could be mafia in this game: Shockey, myself, and Chez. It is simply impossible to lynch all three unless we employ a modkill strategy. So from town BC perspective, why it is not a hypothetically bad idea for me to modkill myself? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I'm all ears if you want to give me a reason for why you think its stupid. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
But if town wants me to modkill myself, I'm totally game. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On April 09 2020 05:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Yeah, no, same exact reaction to this post I did to Jock. FYI, not the same reaction. You didn't vote Jock on Day 1  | ||
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