|
Browsed through Rels' filter.
Chezinu brought up some very good points.
The only thing I'm confused about is his vote change Day 2, onto [UoN]Sentinel. Looking at the vote count at the time:
Day 2 of quarantine
Votes
GlowingBear: (2) Holyflare, Chezinu
[UoN]Sentinel: (2) GlowingBear, Palmar
Palmar: (2) Rels, Trfel
Non-voters: LightningStrike, [UoN]Sentinel, ShoCkeyy
GlowingBear is set to die with 2 votes
On the surface it actually looks good for Rels to switch to [UoN]Sentinel here. It's a 2-2-2 wagon, he switches at about the same time as LightningStrike, and these two switches together nearly seal [UoN]Sentinel as the lynch.
I need to go cook dinner now so this will be short, I'll look at this more later. But quick thoughts:
- ShoCkeyy was the only other person suspicious of Palmar. With a maximum of three votes on Palmar, and Palmar returning to play the game (at least, it maybe seemed so at the time), lynching Palmar was very unlikely. This could be observed the night before the vote switch (real time), and Rels said at that time he'd rather lynch me (Trfel) or [UoN]Sentinel than Palmar, preparing for a vote switch.
- Mafia could have easily decided to bus at about this same time, the night before the deadline. Knowing that a Palmar lynch was very unlikely, and a GlowingBear lynch was also very unlikely (only the two people already voting for him expressed suspicion of him at this point, plus GlowingBear would actively fight to save himself as needed with his high activity), [UoN]Sentinel's death is almost assured, even if he tried to save himself.
- [UoN]Sentinel put in no effort to try and stay alive. No one else tried to keep him alive either. This almost certainly indicates that [UoN]Sentinel was bussed.
So in reality, to me it looks like about a wash. Rels' play makes sense from a mafia perspective. The question is if it fits a town perspective.
@Rels:
Why did you stop scumreading Palmar on Day 2? I know he made a list post, but what about that changed your read? Or was it something else?
What changed in between this post and this post? You expected [UoN]Sentinel to make significant contribution to the game while asleep, or what?
|
Trfel, question: how's your read on Palmar now?
|
On April 02 2020 07:49 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2020 07:02 LightningStrike wrote:On April 02 2020 00:45 GlowingBear wrote:On April 01 2020 23:45 LightningStrike wrote:On April 01 2020 14:31 GlowingBear wrote:On April 01 2020 14:26 Chezinu wrote:Guys.... I asked the Light... through the Google... I asked about me... I did not receive an answer it seems... But then I asked about Rels and I did receive an answer... Chezinu: + Show Spoiler +Rels: + Show Spoiler +This is for Rels! My Teddy Bear Friend, you may be able to troll a check after all!! LET'S DO THIS HOUSE OF BROWN!!! I KNOW THE BROWN IS IN YOU!!!! RAWRR!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA NO WAY HAHAHAHAHAHAHA THE LIGHT HAS SPOKEN, CHEZ!! ##Unvote
##Vote: Rels Is it a April Fools day vote or is it a serious vote and if serious why? It's a serious vote. Reason: ![[image loading]](https://uauposters.com.br/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/0/4/047520140430-poster-serie-arquivo-x-files-i-want-to-believe.jpg) Do you have an actual case of why Rels is scum? I've read what Chezinu said about Rels and I think he could be scum. I think Trfel is worse but I really want Rels to be scum after those images Chez brought. Check my close to deadline post and you'll see I wasn't very confident Rels is town. Unless you think Chez is Mafia?
wait I thought you were trolling with your vote. What do you mean, after those images? Is there a hidden case that I missed?
|
lol Trfel that makes me happy to see you so opportunistic  makes me feel better
|
|
|
If Palmar is also not trolling, his vote on me makes me uneasy. It doesn't match the "game is simple" mindset of earlier. Would explain the Vivax NK too.
But the fact that Trfel doesn't see that and continue his Palmar push, but instead takes the opportunity of jumping on me when people are voting me ... lol. 99% scum.
|
Chez is conf town. I know you all think the Chez/rayn logs can be faked, but I can't imagine it. rayn is pretty proud and I'm sure he would consider that cheating.
They're very dumb to push me when I should be obvious town to rayn. But whatever
|
On April 02 2020 09:25 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2020 07:49 GlowingBear wrote:On April 02 2020 07:02 LightningStrike wrote:On April 02 2020 00:45 GlowingBear wrote:On April 01 2020 23:45 LightningStrike wrote:On April 01 2020 14:31 GlowingBear wrote:On April 01 2020 14:26 Chezinu wrote:Guys.... I asked the Light... through the Google... I asked about me... I did not receive an answer it seems... But then I asked about Rels and I did receive an answer... Chezinu: + Show Spoiler +Rels: + Show Spoiler +This is for Rels! My Teddy Bear Friend, you may be able to troll a check after all!! LET'S DO THIS HOUSE OF BROWN!!! I KNOW THE BROWN IS IN YOU!!!! RAWRR!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA NO WAY HAHAHAHAHAHAHA THE LIGHT HAS SPOKEN, CHEZ!! ##Unvote
##Vote: Rels Is it a April Fools day vote or is it a serious vote and if serious why? It's a serious vote. Reason: Do you have an actual case of why Rels is scum? I've read what Chezinu said about Rels and I think he could be scum. I think Trfel is worse but I really want Rels to be scum after those images Chez brought. Check my close to deadline post and you'll see I wasn't very confident Rels is town. Unless you think Chez is Mafia? wait I thought you were trolling with your vote. What do you mean, after those images? Is there a hidden case that I missed?
He asked the Light via Google, and the Light answered your color: red
|
GB I did read it but I not exactly convinced about it per say but he reading the thread better than trfel is lol....
|
On April 02 2020 09:26 Rels wrote:lol Trfel that makes me happy to see you so opportunistic makes me feel better Opportunistic? I wouldn't call trying to figure out the alignment of the person leading the votes opportunistic. I'd call it being responsible and caring about the game.
I did indeed miss the top of the post you mentioned, my apologies. I saw the rest and assumed it was all like that.
Still though, what about those Palmar posts did you like so much? I have yet to understand this point from anyone, in particular I'd like to hear it from you.
|
On April 02 2020 09:24 GlowingBear wrote:
Trfel, question: how's your read on Palmar now? I don't know. I've been busy, I haven't had a chance to re-evaluate yet. It would be mafia, except he was suspicious of [UoN]Sentinel early on and people have pointed to that as a reason to townread Palmar.
I need to look into that myself and see how much truth and weight it holds. I'm hoping to do so later tonight.On April 02 2020 09:32 Rels wrote:
If Palmar is also not trolling, his vote on me makes me uneasy. It doesn't match the "game is simple" mindset of earlier. Would explain the Vivax NK too.
But the fact that Trfel doesn't see that and continue his Palmar push, but instead takes the opportunity of jumping on me when people are voting me ... lol. 99% scum. I'm not scumreading you. But I might, if you keep attacking me with zero reason just because people are suspecting you.
Palmar's play does look kinda bad though. At least he voted for Rels early on, before it was known that GlowingBear and Chezinu would agree, but it does seem to come out of nowhere and had no explanation.
Gotta look into that later.
|
On April 02 2020 10:31 LightningStrike wrote:
GB I did read it but I not exactly convinced about it per say but he reading the thread better than trfel is lol.... Care to explain? I've been present and reading this entire game. Or are you just here to take potshots for no reason?
|
On April 02 2020 10:43 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2020 10:31 LightningStrike wrote:
GB I did read it but I not exactly convinced about it per say but he reading the thread better than trfel is lol.... Care to explain? I've been present and reading this entire game. Or are you just here to take potshots for no reason?
The fact you missed Rels post about his read on Palmar showed you weren't really reading the game in my opinion. I wasn't taking potshots I was just stating things.
|
On April 02 2020 10:49 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2020 10:43 Trfel wrote:On April 02 2020 10:31 LightningStrike wrote:
GB I did read it but I not exactly convinced about it per say but he reading the thread better than trfel is lol.... Care to explain? I've been present and reading this entire game. Or are you just here to take potshots for no reason? The fact you missed Rels post about his read on Palmar showed you weren't really reading the game in my opinion. I wasn't taking potshots I was just stating things. You're free to think whatever you think, I just find it insulting to be accused of stuff like that. I've provided more quality analysis than most players in this game.
|
On April 02 2020 10:43 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2020 09:24 GlowingBear wrote:
Trfel, question: how's your read on Palmar now? I don't know. I've been busy, I haven't had a chance to re-evaluate yet. It would be mafia, except he was suspicious of [UoN]Sentinel early on and people have pointed to that as a reason to townread Palmar. I need to look into that myself and see how much truth and weight it holds. I'm hoping to do so later tonight. Show nested quote +On April 02 2020 09:32 Rels wrote:
If Palmar is also not trolling, his vote on me makes me uneasy. It doesn't match the "game is simple" mindset of earlier. Would explain the Vivax NK too.
But the fact that Trfel doesn't see that and continue his Palmar push, but instead takes the opportunity of jumping on me when people are voting me ... lol. 99% scum. I'm not scumreading you. But I might, if you keep attacking me with zero reason just because people are suspecting you. Palmar's play does look kinda bad though. At least he voted for Rels early on, before it was known that GlowingBear and Chezinu would agree, but it does seem to come out of nowhere and had no explanation. Gotta look into that later.
Trfel I don't know, man. I read everything you post and it always comes awkward to me. I don't think you're not reading the game, and you are in fact putting a bit of effort. But the only thoughts that sounds original are the ones you've wrote about Palmar, one of your scum reads since day1. The rest, you just seem to react when it's convenient. If you're town, I'm sorry, but that's how it feels to me.
Every post you say you're confused. Every town is, especially in a game like this one. I have at least one reason to suspect each player in the game. That's part of it. But I don't see you going after someone you think it's really scummy.
The only one I'd expect you to go after is Palmar. But when chez posts something about Rels, you decide he is the best shot, when your main scumread is voting him. Also, a huge part of the case on Rels is flipped association with Sentinel. Which is the exact same reason we scum read you and you said it was stupid.
I don't really think you believe in what you're saying every time you post
|
On April 02 2020 11:36 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2020 10:43 Trfel wrote:On April 02 2020 09:24 GlowingBear wrote:
Trfel, question: how's your read on Palmar now? I don't know. I've been busy, I haven't had a chance to re-evaluate yet. It would be mafia, except he was suspicious of [UoN]Sentinel early on and people have pointed to that as a reason to townread Palmar. I need to look into that myself and see how much truth and weight it holds. I'm hoping to do so later tonight. On April 02 2020 09:32 Rels wrote:
If Palmar is also not trolling, his vote on me makes me uneasy. It doesn't match the "game is simple" mindset of earlier. Would explain the Vivax NK too.
But the fact that Trfel doesn't see that and continue his Palmar push, but instead takes the opportunity of jumping on me when people are voting me ... lol. 99% scum. I'm not scumreading you. But I might, if you keep attacking me with zero reason just because people are suspecting you. Palmar's play does look kinda bad though. At least he voted for Rels early on, before it was known that GlowingBear and Chezinu would agree, but it does seem to come out of nowhere and had no explanation. Gotta look into that later. Trfel I don't know, man. I read everything you post and it always comes awkward to me. I don't think you're not reading the game, and you are in fact putting a bit of effort. But the only thoughts that sounds original are the ones you've wrote about Palmar, one of your scum reads since day1. The rest, you just seem to react when it's convenient. If you're town, I'm sorry, but that's how it feels to me. Every post you say you're confused. Every town is, especially in a game like this one. I have at least one reason to suspect each player in the game. That's part of it. But I don't see you going after someone you think it's really scummy. The only one I'd expect you to go after is Palmar. But when chez posts something about Rels, you decide he is the best shot, when your main scumread is voting him. Also, a huge part of the case on Rels is flipped association with Sentinel. Which is the exact same reason we scum read you and you said it was stupid. I don't really think you believe in what you're saying every time you post Again, I'M NOT GOING AFTER RELS!!!
|
On April 02 2020 12:29 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2020 11:36 GlowingBear wrote:On April 02 2020 10:43 Trfel wrote:On April 02 2020 09:24 GlowingBear wrote:
Trfel, question: how's your read on Palmar now? I don't know. I've been busy, I haven't had a chance to re-evaluate yet. It would be mafia, except he was suspicious of [UoN]Sentinel early on and people have pointed to that as a reason to townread Palmar. I need to look into that myself and see how much truth and weight it holds. I'm hoping to do so later tonight. On April 02 2020 09:32 Rels wrote:
If Palmar is also not trolling, his vote on me makes me uneasy. It doesn't match the "game is simple" mindset of earlier. Would explain the Vivax NK too.
But the fact that Trfel doesn't see that and continue his Palmar push, but instead takes the opportunity of jumping on me when people are voting me ... lol. 99% scum. I'm not scumreading you. But I might, if you keep attacking me with zero reason just because people are suspecting you. Palmar's play does look kinda bad though. At least he voted for Rels early on, before it was known that GlowingBear and Chezinu would agree, but it does seem to come out of nowhere and had no explanation. Gotta look into that later. Trfel I don't know, man. I read everything you post and it always comes awkward to me. I don't think you're not reading the game, and you are in fact putting a bit of effort. But the only thoughts that sounds original are the ones you've wrote about Palmar, one of your scum reads since day1. The rest, you just seem to react when it's convenient. If you're town, I'm sorry, but that's how it feels to me. Every post you say you're confused. Every town is, especially in a game like this one. I have at least one reason to suspect each player in the game. That's part of it. But I don't see you going after someone you think it's really scummy. The only one I'd expect you to go after is Palmar. But when chez posts something about Rels, you decide he is the best shot, when your main scumread is voting him. Also, a huge part of the case on Rels is flipped association with Sentinel. Which is the exact same reason we scum read you and you said it was stupid. I don't really think you believe in what you're saying every time you post Again, I'M NOT GOING AFTER RELS!!!
Trfel, I'll take a step back and assume you're 100% town, so we can have a conversation without me thinking you're trying to trick me.
Now, let's also assume Mafia could've bussed Sentinel or not, in which case votecount isn't helpful.
Trying to make associations with filters won't help either, since both you and Rels had suspicious posts regarding Sentinel, and you can't both be Mafia.
We will have to rely solely on how people have been playing.
Who is most likely scum, solely for how they have been playing?
|
Canada11355 Posts
Day 3 of quarantine
Votes
Rels: (2) Palmar, Chezinu, GlowingBear
Trfel: (1) Rels, GlowingBear
Rels is set to die with 2 votes
The deadline for the day is Thursday, Apr 02 6:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) which is in
VOTE THREAD HERE (CLICK ME)
|
On April 02 2020 13:11 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2020 12:29 Trfel wrote:On April 02 2020 11:36 GlowingBear wrote:On April 02 2020 10:43 Trfel wrote:On April 02 2020 09:24 GlowingBear wrote:
Trfel, question: how's your read on Palmar now? I don't know. I've been busy, I haven't had a chance to re-evaluate yet. It would be mafia, except he was suspicious of [UoN]Sentinel early on and people have pointed to that as a reason to townread Palmar. I need to look into that myself and see how much truth and weight it holds. I'm hoping to do so later tonight. On April 02 2020 09:32 Rels wrote:
If Palmar is also not trolling, his vote on me makes me uneasy. It doesn't match the "game is simple" mindset of earlier. Would explain the Vivax NK too.
But the fact that Trfel doesn't see that and continue his Palmar push, but instead takes the opportunity of jumping on me when people are voting me ... lol. 99% scum. I'm not scumreading you. But I might, if you keep attacking me with zero reason just because people are suspecting you. Palmar's play does look kinda bad though. At least he voted for Rels early on, before it was known that GlowingBear and Chezinu would agree, but it does seem to come out of nowhere and had no explanation. Gotta look into that later. Trfel I don't know, man. I read everything you post and it always comes awkward to me. I don't think you're not reading the game, and you are in fact putting a bit of effort. But the only thoughts that sounds original are the ones you've wrote about Palmar, one of your scum reads since day1. The rest, you just seem to react when it's convenient. If you're town, I'm sorry, but that's how it feels to me. Every post you say you're confused. Every town is, especially in a game like this one. I have at least one reason to suspect each player in the game. That's part of it. But I don't see you going after someone you think it's really scummy. The only one I'd expect you to go after is Palmar. But when chez posts something about Rels, you decide he is the best shot, when your main scumread is voting him. Also, a huge part of the case on Rels is flipped association with Sentinel. Which is the exact same reason we scum read you and you said it was stupid. I don't really think you believe in what you're saying every time you post Again, I'M NOT GOING AFTER RELS!!! Trfel, I'll take a step back and assume you're 100% town, so we can have a conversation without me thinking you're trying to trick me. Now, let's also assume Mafia could've bussed Sentinel or not, in which case votecount isn't helpful. Trying to make associations with filters won't help either, since both you and Rels had suspicious posts regarding Sentinel, and you can't both be Mafia. We will have to rely solely on how people have been playing. Who is most likely scum, solely for how they have been playing? I don't necessarily believe that all associations are equal. I believe [UoN]Sentinel's actions at End of Day 2 to be WIFOM and impossible to get any useful information from. I didn't try to say that my own posts can't be used to show association to [UoN]Sentinel, I have simply tried to explain the intent behind my posts to clear up confusion and incorrect interpretations that were made that resulted in people thinking I looked suspicious due to my stance on [UoN]Sentinel. It's up to everyone's own view how they want to judge that, but I do think it's important that people correctly understand my thought process in my reads and posts.
In short, not all associations are equal. But I have also discussed those already, I'd be happy to discuss other things as well. I think the most suspicious thing in Rels' filter is how he switches from Palmar to [UoN]Sentinel on Day 2. Obviously this is extremely suspect given [UoN]Sentinel's alignment, but also makes no sense on its own (look at the way he does it, not just the fact that he did). To me it feels fake. He dropped his vote for (IMO) suspect reasons* and voted for his #2 suspect over his #1 suspect for no reason.
*I know he said he just voted for Palmar as a pressure vote. Palmar made a list post with little to no reasoning. Rels found it to be towny (how?) and also qualified this as Palmar playing the game (I strongly disagree, he showed barely any effort or thought).
My second reason to be suspicious of Rels is that Rels never made his own pushes or ideas, he just follows others. He just lets other people lead and jumps on the wagons and ideas that have already been shared. It feels like he's not really trying to solve the game and is just trying to look good and survive.
See the below spoiler for further analysis of this:
+ Show Spoiler [Analysis] +
I'm going to go and get a snack, and then I'll look at Palmar's filter. I don't like Palmar either, of course only one of them can be mafia. I need to figure out who it is, and I'm still not sure on LightningStrike or Chezinu. I can never read LightningStrike at all, he's had some weak games as scum and he's also had some absolutely killer games as scum. And Chezinu's play is such a departure from what I expect from him that I don't really know what to think. I need to take a closer look at both. Heck, I'm not even 100% positive you (GlowingBear) are town, I haven't had the time to do a thorough read of your filter yet.
If I had to rank everyone right now, from scummiest to towniest, it would be:
Palmar > Rels > LightningStrike > Chezinu > GlowingBear
But please keep in mind, I'm working right now to try and get a better idea of who is town and who is not. Expect my reads to change before I go to bed tonight.
|
Frick, I forgot to actually put my analysis in that spoiler  Whoops on that one.
The one counterargument to Rels not bringing up his own thoughts is his early Day 1 vote onto Holyflare. However, he didn't press this for long. If you look at what Rels actually cared about and where he was actually invested, he hasn't done much that is original.
He started suspecting [UoN]Sentinel here, welll after Holyflare and others had started pushing him. Same with his suspicions on me, starting about here, well after GlowingBear and several others were suspecting me. His vote on KelsierSC came late, and well after most others suspected him due to Holyflare's case. And then Day 2, going onto [UoN]Sentinel only after it was almost certain that he would be the lynch (see previous posts for an explanation if you don't understand this). And he's done very little Day 3.
Look at the overarching theme in his filter and he's been quite the follower this game.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/bMaQD1p.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/MILqzd3.png)
