EPT[M][N]MiniFeast I
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raynpelikoneet
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On June 24 2019 13:09 Trfel wrote: Raynpelikoneet, I find it weird that we are in agreement early on, feel like that's never happened before.. I am pretty sure i have townread you when you have been town quite early on last couple of games. You also did the town!Trfel thing.  | ||
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On June 24 2019 15:32 Jockmcplop wrote: Trfel is behaving a bit strangely, flailing around for reads very early, but its NAI. On June 24 2019 17:17 Jockmcplop wrote: No-one looks particuarly town to me. Maybe trfel. On June 24 2019 17:32 Jockmcplop wrote: Been reading Trfel's filter, its super weird already. Like, the intention behind the posts seems townie, kinda flailing around loking for bits to grab a hold of, but the wording is suspicious. Lots of maybes and questions like 'do you guys agree?' and also the 'We can talk about something else if you want' thing. This is a particularly mafia-esque way of phrasing a suspicion, for example. What happens between here that your mind changes twice? | ||
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On June 24 2019 23:03 Shapelog wrote: I find it odd how technical and misconstruing he was towards Eversince. I dont get how you someone can read the thread at that time and genuinely post the quoted post above from trfel. Let's say Shapelog is correct and this is actually true and Trfel is mafia. Trfel as mafia clearly knows this as well right? He has to since he is making a bullshit case he knows is incorrect. Why does Trfel make that case in the first place? Like a case that's based on pure lying and misconstruing. It doesn't make any sense at all because you're just... well instantly caught. | ||
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On June 24 2019 23:24 Jockmcplop wrote: I don't really understand what you mean. What exactly do you agree with Kels about? I agree with him that your post about grack after holyflare looked like what he said originally said. Well i wouldn't say you tried to "bury" him but it sure looked like a scumread and that you're just hopping on board with HF. Not so much when you continued talking about it with him, but first for sure. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On April 06 2017 22:37 Shapelog wrote: Alright, here where I stand with the conversation between Calix and BTDT. For Calix side, the following makes me think they are more town then scum when I look at this part. I personally think that if Calix was scum, they would of not posted this. It would make sense for Scum!Calix to keep on BTDT as to have a excuse to post, and also because of the what apparently happen with a misunderstanding last game. I do acknowledge that Calix could be backing off here as scum due to a lack of footing on BTDT, but I expect that they would keep on for later credit of being active D1 or even for being on BTDT/Ryan later on if either got into negative light. Moreover, BTDT was more in the mood of keeping the fight going on. Which would allow scum!calix to hide in what would prob. develop into a shitfight with BTDT for getting pass d1. However, I personally do not see anything I really like in calix's points. Some I dont really understand the way calix talks (I.E. calix posts kinda feel a bit circlejerking? If that makes sense, prob doesnt). Also, I do feel as there should be more from calix if they are town and though something about BTDT is scummy. I don't get the stance of "waiting to question you" at all either. But doesn't feel like calix is at the stage of mafia discrediting that is usually happening at this stage of the game hmmm. I will say that I would rank calix a bit above null into the town lean range b/c while I do not understand calix overall stance, I think the clear out looks more town then mafia in my eyes. Flipsid3, I think BTDT also displayed similar actions regarding koshi's meta point and not voting calix. His posts dont feel like he is being pressured in my eyes, and seems more of him trying to figure out calixs point while being mad at calix logic. One could state that he is being pretty agressive in a way, but I just chop it up to him as taking a stance at figuring out the game. Don't really have a issue with him right now. More towny then Calix and working his way up to a town lean I think the above post shows that his thinking of why people post the stuff they do from town/mafia perspective should go wayyyy deeper than the "i dont get it so he is mafia" post on trfel. | ||
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On June 24 2019 23:44 Pandain wrote: I think Rayn is mafia with kelsier Just throw in Trfel too and i will keep a bugs-list for you this game. | ||
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The only reason why Trfel would post what he did as mafia is if he is mafia with ES and wants to make a case that looks good on him in case ES happens to get lynched at some point, but his case will not accomplish that for sure and he knows it. Sort of distancing but in a way that doesn't mean anything. The only other option imo is that Trfel actually believes in what he says, aka perceives ES' posting as he put it (regardless of how strong his read is). There is simply zero reason to make that post in case ES is town and Trfel is mafia because the only thing that can happen is that Trfel looks bad for it. Now the post i quoted above imo clearly shows that Shapelog is capable of actually thinking, and yet better, noticing that kind of motivation in people's posts. In my opinion he SHOULD be easily able to tell what i just said in the above paragraph, because, once again, that's the only thing that makes sense. I think Shapelogs read here is very convenient to make as mafia since he isn't really anything that is wrong. I just think he isn't actually thinking about if it can genuinely make Trfel mafia when he should and i think it makes him mafia. ##vote Shapelog | ||
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On June 24 2019 23:54 Shapelog wrote: Correctly nail scum day 1. Then gets told I bus 100% of the time as scum and get auto lynched day 2 idk what you did later but at least you hard defended mafia me and Koshi lynched D1. | ||
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On June 25 2019 00:09 Grackaroni wrote: I don't agree with this at all. Jock's post was pretty clearly motivated by humor to me. well then i guess you will join the pandain force. | ||
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On June 25 2019 00:18 Grackaroni wrote: Yeah pretty much. This is where I am at the moment. Pandain Trfel Jockmcplop Kelsier You could be right about Shapelog. I didn't understand your town read on Eversince and I don't know why you like Kelsier atm. He's defended me twice so far and it rubs me the wrong way. Because Eversince as mafia seems to be picking on stuff and make it look like she thinks those things make someone mafia -- aka big cases and shit over completely NAI posts. If you're interested go read my Farah's case on her in here. That's pretty much the perfect reasoning why ES was mafia that game and i see none of it here. I don't think Kelsier defending you makes him anything because he was defending you on stuff that doesn't make you mafia. Even if you're mafia this game that's not why you are mafia. I don't get HF's read too. | ||
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lol i just called Damdred's wife "my Farah" shhhh dont tell him | ||
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Here is Kelsier's firt real post in the game. On June 24 2019 05:00 KelsierSC wrote: Gracks entrance post/joke didn't mean anything. Did you expect someone to tell you otherwise? noticeable things so far is that Shapelog says the same thing and this is a post that is correct and doesn't make Grackaroni mafia. this is the follow up: On June 24 2019 05:23 KelsierSC wrote: Alright this hasn't really heated up, Sunday evening start so it's to be expected. Going to take off and get some sleep. I'll try and check in a few times each day depending on my availability. Trfel's post is the worst thing so far I can't decide if it's someone trying to get the game going or if he's just nervous and is uncomfortable sitting quietly in the thread. I don't know anything about Eversince. If i'm honest it does feel a bit too nice but maybe he is just a good person. That being said, He does like HF so how can you trust him. this actually makes sense in case he is mafia, i agree. But so far, at this point my read on him is that he is trying to get the game going and not pulling any shit. I obviously disagree with his read on Trfel here but i don't think it makes him mafia. Eversince claims Grack is irritating after this. Pandain expresses some feelings i ahve no idea what that means on Grackaroni. At least Pandain has noticed the thing on Grack imo. Me, Trfel and ES discuss Eywa. Holyflare comes in and accuses Grackaroni. Jock makes his comment about Grack. Now i think this is the kicker post: On June 24 2019 16:28 KelsierSC wrote: Morning Everyone, Liked the discussion between rayn and trefl regarding eywa's reads. That's bumped trefl up. The scum reads seem off to me and need more explanation. I don't like ES particularly, but pandain is just one low content poster in a game of low content posters. ShapeLog town read also needs more explanation. I don't like Jocks entrance. His first comment is he has nothing to add and things are uneventful. But as soon as HF throws out a name he jumps on it trying to bury Grack. The red part makes perfectly sense in case Kelsier is mafia (unless mafia with Eywa -- lets assume here that Trfel is town). The green part however doesn't make any sense at all in comparison to the red one since he is letting one guy off the hook for doing the wrong thing (accusing Grack) and changing the subject to another guy. I don't think that's a mafia thing to do because i think the mafia thing to do is to let Trfel and Jock be town for now and join the accusation, accuse them both, or act like you dont know where your head is at because you are now confused especially since HF jumped in. I think all of those outcomes are better than what Kelsier did and i don't think what he did makes any sense from mafia perspective. | ||
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On June 24 2019 19:42 Pandain wrote: I have a strong town read on Jock because he seems to be posting very honest, genuinely contributing, and I think he reacted very honestly to Kelsier. I also like when he posted "Every read I have seen so far is a shot in the dark" because it seems like a very genuine town mentality. Hard to explain why but it really does. I am going to be voting Kelsier because I absolutely hate his opening post. The bolded sentence just seems very forced, like he's trying to find someone to cast suspicion on. I in no way saw Jock's post as "trying to bury Grack", and I would love if anyone else commented whether they did." Maybe it could be an easy mistake, but then he later double downed on this when I think it's pretty obvious Jock wasn't really accusing anyone, and definitely not "trying to bury" him. I am also retracting from my town read on Pandain because i am not sure if he is being honest here and i specifically cannot understand why would i ever defend Kelsier at this point of the day if i was mafia with him. | ||
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On June 25 2019 01:22 Grackaroni wrote: I"m actually upgrading Rayn to town. is this what you got from looking into shapelog or where did you leave that? | ||
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On June 25 2019 01:56 Grackaroni wrote: I read both of you. I read Shapelog first and then read you to try to understand what you were saying. I am going to need a clarification on this because i read you read shapelog, then me, you don't know what i am saying but before giving shapelog any read you read me town. | ||
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On June 25 2019 02:02 KelsierSC wrote: I suppose if you come to it later and see people disagree with me you can try and attack me for it and say shit like "I in no way saw Jock's post as "trying to bury Grack", and I would love if anyone else commented whether they did" Looks like you are just trying to jump on a bandwagon here. I wanted someone to say this <3 | ||
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On June 25 2019 02:04 Grackaroni wrote: I filtered Shapelog. I had him as a mafia lean. Then I read your filter and liked your push and decided that you believed it so I said in thread that I was upgrading you to town. fair enough. do you understand it now though? | ||
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On June 25 2019 02:09 Jockmcplop wrote: Kelsier I didn't say I was just joking. I said I wanted to remind everyone, including myself, that he promised to post more later. That's very different, and is a much more natural explanation than either i was joking or i was scumreading him in a pile on. Actually if you are mafia it's not. If you are mafia it's definitely possible you are throwing more fuel onto the fire without sticking your neck out. | ||
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On June 25 2019 02:14 Jockmcplop wrote: OK, so just to indulge this for a short time more, please go through the following post and see if you can point out: a) Where I am throwing fuel on a fire b) Where I suggest that grack is scum, town, or anything else or give any kind of read. c) Where I am being opportunistic. Because to me, it looks pretty obvious that what I'm doing here is saying 'Hey everyone, remember when grack said he would have a filter full of content by the end of the day?" I mean really, really obvious. Maybe you are looking at the game differently than i am, but for me saying "Hey everyone, remember when grack said he would have a filter full of content by the end of the day" CAN imply throwing fuel into the fire without actually "taking the blame" of calling someone mafia. what i mean is, if i were to assume you are mafia, you would be on the both sides of the fence. I mean like you didn't actually call him mafia or anything but there sure CAN be an implication of that. That's why being clear is important. Remember that people outside mafia don't know your alignment and even jokes or however you word your posts can be read differently when people don't know your motivation behind your post. I am not saying you are mafia, i don't think you are, because i find it more likely you are telling the truth here rather than lying, but please try to understand that in a mafia game you should choose your words carefully even if you are town because some people might think you are doing things from mafia perspective and that doesn't necessarily make them mafia even if they are wrong. | ||
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On June 25 2019 02:16 Grackaroni wrote: You think he's giving a shallow read of Trfel as in "Trfel said something inaccurate about Eversince's behavior so he's scum mischaracterizing Eversince" to be able to scum read him rather than understanding Trfel's perspective. Personally I liked Trfel's aggressive posts when not much is happening in thread. I think they're not well informed but not too likely to come from mafia. I think what bothers me is that when he talks about Trfel's post on me he seems to view it from the point of view as I do, as in "this is an eager townie reading too far into Grack's post. You don't have enough evidence to make this conclusion yet" and then when Trfel makes a similar post against Eversince it's "this is scum mischaracterizing Eversince's behavior." And also Eversince was Shapelog's scum read to begin with. Holy shit this is true aswell. | ||
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Can you look at the stuff on Shapelog? If you don't agree with it, do you want to go with Kelsier or do something else? | ||
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On June 25 2019 02:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: What i am saying though is that i think i have evidence that Shapelog is easily capable of going deeper into why people post what they do when he is town and in this game he isn't showing that towards Trfel. This is what i am saying, no more or less. Grackaroni had a decent point too. | ||
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On June 25 2019 03:13 Holyflare wrote: Oh boy we're in a rayn is mafia game. Buckle down people. Because? | ||
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On June 25 2019 22:02 Holyflare wrote: My main problem with rayn is that kelsier looks very bad in all aspects of his posts but rayn specifically went out of his way to defend kelsier while: I disagree with Kelsier looking bad on all aspects. My original town read on him was because of how he started the game. Kelsier has lately been playing quite actively in his town games and i see aspects of it here and he'd probably give way less shits about the game as mafia. That's my read on Kelsier pretty much. In easy words, he is playing more proactively than reactionary. Calling his posts out saying this is what mafia kelsier would do Yeah i can maybe see how you think this. That was not my point though, my point was that mafia!Kelsier could say something like that, not that what Kelsier said makes him mafia. Why would i ever post anything that you are suggesting here as either alignment?!?!? It doesn't even make any sense. Ignoring all contradictory kelsier points I am not ignoring them, i simply saw a "contradiction", if that's what you want to call it, and i outlined why i think the conclusion Kelsier finally ends up with doesn't come from mafia. Making mafia posts from Kelsier into town posts Once again this is not what i did. Maybe this is me thing and not Holyflare. I have absolutely no idea how the content of my post on Kelsier can't be clear -- i mean where i am coming from and why. It's one thing to disagree with me but to claim i did something i absolutely didn't do is another thing. Like idk, does anyone else read my post like HF did??? This happens every single game with him and it would be hilarious if it wasn't so annoying since there's usually people who actually believe in what he writes.... | ||
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Basically i think her scumread on Pandain is full of shit. | ||
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On June 25 2019 22:25 Eversince wrote: How is Kels playing active? he was. you're right he isn't rn. He has promised to look into shapelog and pandain though so i am waiting to see what he does. if he doesn't do anything maybe you're right and i am wrong. | ||
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On June 25 2019 20:54 Pandain wrote: Rayn's reasoning is convoluted enough that's it's hard to understand (and thus make judgments on) his arguments. Where are you referring here and why are you saying this? | ||
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Pandain my best bet for third scum just for calling Grackaroni mafia (or a lynch) for a claim that doesnt make any sense in his mind from mafia perspective, like basically he wants to lynch a townie and paints it as a "mafia read". Those are my reads, if i am wrong on something get slam in there, most likely everyone else is town. | ||
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good luck, listen to dead people since i have a feeling HF is gonna lynch me. | ||
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I am sorry i couldnt be around more, but i think i played one of my towniest D1's ever. I really tried explaining my reads other than scumreads and diacuss studf with people. I still dont answer hf's stupid questions because the answers are in my filter. At least this game proved to me i am better going back to doibg what i have done past year, aka playing the game for my own amusememt. No use to try talk when people dont even try to listen. Good luck. | ||
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Grack; you have a minute. Where do i put my vote? Noone outside the four ppl i mentioned i will vote. | ||
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I answered the first one already Yeah my case doesnt. That doesnt mean thats not what i thought earlier because i already called him possibly town befote that. Thats all in my fucking filter you [redacted].... Okay times up my vote stays on shape. Gotta work. | ||
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On June 26 2019 06:34 Eversince wrote: Rayn I'm pretty sure your town by now. Please stop talking to HF. He is prodding you. I don't know why. Can we be friends yet? Ofc. You lynched mafia. I have had a town read on you since forever. I told grack to not lynch you. | ||
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On June 26 2019 08:53 Eversince wrote: Only if I track the right person. So who if not to confirm you? You shut up about ot rn and rrack whoever you think will send in the night kill. Grack flips a coin between you and HF. | ||
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Holyflare Grackaroni Trfel Eversince Hopefully i dont need to go into why Trfel and Eversince, but i will explain it in case someone demands it. "Ofc they could bus" is not a legit argument because it doesn't make any sense for either of them. That leaves the following players possible for scum: Shapelog pandain Eywa- KelsierSC jockmcplop Let's start with the fact that it's extremely unlike that there is 2 mafia outside of Shapelog + Kelsier duo. I have yet to check how likely it is that they are mafia together or if it makes sense (i think someone said something along the lines that it's possible). At least one of them is pretty much always mafia in this game because any other 2 player duo from eywa/pandain/jock/(me) can always turn the lynch away from Slam onto a townie. So basically at least one of Kelsier and Shapelog has to be mafia. I don't have anything new to say about either of them because they haven't posted since i have laid my reads on them. I am especially waiting for what Kelsier has to say now and i will make my decision on him after he comes back and plays. I think postwise D1 jock looks the best of the rest. Idk, i am still to check what Trfel said about him but i am not gonna do that before sleep. anyways for now i think he is town, technically i guess it's possible he is mafia. Unlikely still. I don't really think Pandain is mafia (and don't fucking come now and say "you're now saying you think pandain is more town than jock while you just said the other way around" -- because yes, that's exactly what i am going to say). Eywa- possibly mafia for what i said earlier. She hasn't explained a single read whole game. I'm just gonna ignore her until some actual explanations come out of her keyboard. And that's DEFINITELY NOT how she played last game ffs.... HF's questions: A) What bullshit was going on in the thread that made him want to make a town case on Kelsier. <-- he said he said it in his filter but I can't see where Apparently i was not clear enough when after your post where you origginally ask about it i made a post that literally says "I can say bullshit = bad cases though, i think the case on Kelsier is a bad case.", i am sorry i don't know how i could have been any more clear on that. B) Why was his later reason for town reading Kelsier based on him being proactive rather than reactive but nothing in the case he made earlier ever alluded to that reasoning? <--- he's already admitted that he didn't write it in his case, ask him why Because the case on Kelsier was not about Kelsier being reactive. The case was about stuff i talked about in my post and the read from his tone was early on and not even that strong. People questioned - or scumread him for his posts and i went over the posts and explained why the latest part (when keelsier has said X and Y before) doesn't make sense to me as him being mafia. I thought i was was very clear about what i was saying yet you turned it into some weird "rayn is calling Kelsier mafia here". My tone read on him early on doesn't convince anyone 100% so what's the point adding it on there? I was simply just responding to what he was being accused of and telling why it doesn't make sense in my eyes. C) Why has he said that he needs to revisit Kelsier when Kelsier has not returned since Rayn made the town case on Kelsier, Kelsier did not vote so is afk, rayn scum reads the people pushing Kelsier? What is this question even? I don't know who is mafia, my mafia reads pushing Kelsier has nothing to do with him being anything at that point. I even told someone, i think ES, that i agree Kelsier had disappeared for certain amount of time and if he doesn't return then i am possibly wrong, because that's how i perceive his scumplay to look like over his townplay. Like, holy fuck, i agree that i can be wrong on something!! Here's what irritates me HF; I have tried my best to read Kelsier during the game and whetever i say about him at any point during the game you call me scum for it. You think that's fun? Why am not allowed to change my opinion on someone (not to even mention in your eyes it's a BETTER opinion)? You still call me mafia for it. I think i have been perfectly reasonable with my posts and opinion on Kelsier and you call me scum for everything i write about him. D) Why does Pandain look townie for eod pushing away from Slam after everything I've said? You're right this is a legit question and i retract from my statement because i didn't have full information at the time i wrote the post. I didn't read your post, i just chacked quickly who got lynched and who voted for what when i had a minute at work. If you want to know what my original thought process was please do ask. As long as these get answered without some hissy fit then you can let him play however he wants. C) Why just because | ||
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Yeah i asked a lot of stuff from Eywa and also got phoo os there is nothing much to talk about. | ||
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On June 26 2019 14:21 Eversince wrote: To clarify- Ewya pushing me as a lynch is mafia agenda because she absolutely will not explain why. I'm a super active poster and might throw a wrench to a low active mafia maby? The whole push seems bleh to me. same here. like she seems to think possibly that because i thought pandain is mafia and also thought she is mafia when she thinks pandain is mafia, that makes me mafia. But that's garbage reasoning. | ||
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On June 26 2019 14:27 Eversince wrote: It is very odd that he jumped on you though instead of Kels/Shape unless they are partners. Yeah he is never mafia with Kelsier. If he is mafia with Shapelog what choice does he have? Holyflare was almost lynching me and Grack expressed interest in following HF. | ||
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On June 26 2019 14:59 Eversince wrote: Ewya might be the last. I'm stuck between Kels/ Pand. The both can't be mafia together right? On June 26 2019 14:55 raynpelikoneet wrote: Well do you seriously think there is a chance Pandain bussed Kelsier basically all D1 just into hard-defending his 100% afk scummate Slam????? | ||
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On June 26 2019 15:24 Eversince wrote: I know you t!read Kels but at least look at Pand again. I like Pand more than I like Kels but effort from either could change that, I have looked Pandain and i can't tell for certain. Before eod there is some weird shit basically with his read on me that doesn't make any sense at all, his eod definitely looks scummy and even quite irrational based on his reads there and after. I am just not completely certain what it means. For sure he is high suspect for me and i don't think you can tell me anything atm to make me consider otherwise. I don't townread Kelsier, i just scumread Shapelog more than Kelsier. I want to get rid of Shapelog for certain in case it happens during this night, D2 i am not sure what to do yet (unless vigi shoots Shapelog town) but there's like 60 hours before i need to know. | ||
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On June 26 2019 15:26 Eversince wrote: It is off that he still thinks Grack is scum. To me it's wasted time. Of course it's wasted time, and grack is not mafia. pandain even himself gave the perfect reason why it's not a fake claim. | ||
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On June 25 2019 22:33 raynpelikoneet wrote: he was. you're right he isn't rn. He has promised to look into shapelog and pandain though so i am waiting to see what he does. if he doesn't do anything maybe you're right and i am wrong. | ||
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I am actually having another problem right now (kinda not related to this -- this is stil lalways best play) since i just went back to look for something for Eversince. I am not sure if Kelsier had discussed Eywa in the post where he accused you in case they are mafia together. I know i am not mafia so if Eywa is not mafia with Kelsier, Kelsier cannot be mafia with anyone except for Shapelog. So i think Shapelog is always mafia in this game and if that's not true i am very bad at this game. Or wrong about how bold Kelsier can be as scum. | ||
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Kelsier says "VE is pocketing rayn therefore VE is mafia" I wait for 12 hrs and ask Kelsier "why am i town?" Kelsier says "what i don't read you as town" Kelsier has to be mafia because VE cannot be mafia for "pocketing rayn" unless he thinks rayn is town.... | ||
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On June 26 2019 15:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: It still doesn't explain why you were choosing to lynch your 95% townread over slam. Like literally, how is it better if let's say you, hf and grack vote for me and i flip town than if slam had flipped town? | ||
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On June 26 2019 15:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Oh and because of that i will remember the following; Eywa tried to paint lynching me as info lynch so now would be the time to tell what gorious info would she be getting if i flipped (1) mafia, or (2) town? Actually i am only interested in this: On June 26 2019 00:52 Eywa- wrote: I think we just lynch Rayn here, he's given a lot of associative reads for us to work with, so even in the event where he flips town, it's not catastrophic by any means. Eywa, HF and some random X person vote for me. You don't get a single fucking piece of information out of it when i flip town. N O T A S I N G LE F U C K I N G P I E C E, except that Eywa is either idiotic or mafia. | ||
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On June 26 2019 15:52 Pandain wrote: Because Slam was completely AFK. And no one even posted anything regarding him, so it would not benefit town at all It would basically be like RNGing someone at the start of the day to die. At least you might be able to get some associative reads from your death. you too, what the fuck do you gain in regards of information in case i flip town? | ||
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I need a break. | ||
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On June 26 2019 15:59 Pandain wrote: Dude I don't fucking know I didn't want to lynch you at all I never looked into it. But obviously you are active and I know people have made comments on you (jock,eversince, at the very least). there's at least something there. you were not even a person i wanted to flip it was very clear i was at some point. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:08 Pandain wrote: I'm going to move Grack to town because besides that god-awful claim he's been pretty towny. What do you think about the fact i made almost the exact claim last game for the exact same reasons Grack did? I was town. If Grack is mafia why doesn't Grack claim just "blue" which would be understandable from town pov aswell and keeps him alive better that doctor claim? If Grack is mafia why does Grack fakeclaim DOCTOR in a situation -- as you put it, "when under no pressure"? What mafia motivation there EVER is to make that sort of claim? | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:13 Pandain wrote: [...]you were active and had many people interacting with you. Your death would be more meaningful. And i am, and was, asking you to explain why, in case i flip town? | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:20 Pandain wrote: Having played mafia with Grack it's very very easily something he could have done. Like HF said, it's very unlikely there's a doctor in the first place, and if there was, mafia is pretty much screwed unless they can out the doctor. Mafia is screwed if there is a doctor because he can always protect HF who is a confirmed townie. Mafia always loses. In this (unlikely) case, trading a mafia for knowing who the doctor is - is not a bad play. If there is no doctor(most likely), then Grack can do a free fakeclaim. This does make some sense, i mean in a way that you could actually think this as town. Some things: - While HF is confirmed town he can still be wrong and he is defi-fucking-nitely wrong there - It's not unlikely there is a doctor because the setup already playerwise is missing 2 townies to standard 10v3, aka it's heavily mafia favored, there is actually VERY likely to be a protective role aka vet/doc/jailer - Mafia is not screwed if there is a doctor, who cares if HF lives to D2? Mafia can just assume doc will protect HF (which the doc should unless HF is throwing) and shoot HF N2. - Trading a mafia for D1 claimed doc is terrible play, also if grack is mafia and there is actually a real doctor they should never counter-claim, just protect HF and then you TRADED MAFIA FOR NO DOCTOR on D2!!!!!! That's even more terrible play. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:25 Pandain wrote: Rayn I'm going to be honest with you. You may not like it but I don't like hiding or pretending stuff. I never looked into it in detail. As I have said repeatedly, you were (literally) a last minute lynch You were not a person that I heavily analyzed and thought I am confident I could go and find examples now and I'm sure I could find them, but sharing that would not be an accurate representation of my thinking at the time of the lynch. All I knew is that many people have interacted with you so that I thought at least there might be some information that can be gleamed. For instance, maybe Eywa is more or less suspicious for pushing you. Maybe Jock looks better because he is defending you against HF, a confirmed town, when he could easily as scum sort of agree with you and put suspicion on rayn who is up for lynch. I play by instinct sometimes, especially in these EoD scenarios. It's attested to by the fact that nearly every EoD I try and lead a counter-lynch or push someone else. You know this from my play as town. When I voted to lynch you with literally 30 seconds to go, it was not based on a detailed analysis of "oh we will know x and y and z and because of that x and z." It was rather "Rayn is probably town but maybe not, and he at least has been active with other people so maybe we can find some information" I know you didn't and i might even believe you. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:50 Pandain wrote: Well I think Kelsier is more scummy. You and I have obviously disagreed on this and think Shape is more scummy (who I am more null on). But I agree that regardless of whoever get's vigi'd the other one should be lynched. I dont care which one is more scummy, i posted a vig shape plan a couple of pages ago. Why do you disagree it always ends up in either Shape being mafia or town always winning? | ||
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On June 26 2019 14:48 raynpelikoneet wrote: If there is a vigilante btw they should absolutely always shoot Shapelog. He flips mafia, cool, he flips town lynch Kelsier because he has to be mafia, then Pandain and jock become pretty much hard cleared and the last mafia HAS to be in me and Eywa. You will have enough days to lynch both. | ||
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Who do we lynch after that to 100% win the game? | ||
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On June 26 2019 17:01 Pandain wrote: Eywa and Grack, whatever order. town never loses. and how are you going to sell this to people when there is you and jock who arent actually confirmed town by any means anymore? | ||
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On June 26 2019 17:07 Pandain wrote: jesus christ my head. Okay yes if people are idiotic and lynch me or think that somehow jock is mafia people can lose. But in your argument, what happens if SL is mafia and Kelsier is town? Same exact scenario no, what happens is we shot mafia. it's not the same exact scenario because in the other one we are using a lynch and a day phase to get onto (possibly) the same scenario where we could be after night phase before. Also if shapelog would flip town the game is effectively solved. Shooting shape: - kill mafia - kill town -> game solved Shooting Kelsier: - kill mafia - kill town -> game not solved simple | ||
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but the thing is, he flips scum, and even if you consider me not being mafia with shape (which you should), you have situation of 6v1 at the start of N2 and you/eywa/jock unconfirmed. that's not a clear cut win. what i am offering is either a shot on mafia (which is at best "the same" with kels/shape) or a straight up win (if you shoot shape), IN CASE you believe there was no 2 active mafia during eod, which you do. | ||
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On June 26 2019 17:18 Jockmcplop wrote: If shape = town, KSC is mafia, you and me both become conftown and the rest is easy this | ||
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On June 26 2019 17:22 Pandain wrote: Explain it in depth. 1. We Shoot Shape. A. He's mafia. Great. Game not solved but we are likely to win. b. He's Town. KSC is mafia and we lynch him. Game is solved here. Jock and I are confirmed town. 2. We Shoot KSC a. He's Mafia. Game is solved here. Jock and I are confirmed town. B. He's town. Shape is mafia. Great. Game not solved but we are likely to win. Is this right or what am I missing. I am not sure. My point is on if we shoot Kelsier and he turns up town we lose one day phase for nothing. Because if shapelog is mafia and kelsier is not we always win if we shoot him. but do we win if we shoot kelsier (town) and lynch shape (scum)? | ||
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On June 26 2019 17:45 Holyflare wrote: Just lynch who you think is mafia dudes. Stop this pointless shit. I don't think you can confirm anyone on any wagon at all. yeah lets not make reads based on what people did | ||
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On June 26 2019 18:03 Pandain wrote: you also said exactly this last game and grack was mafia soooooooo Quote: "Grack is the most townie guy in the whole thread" yeah i did, he didnt claim doctor under no pressure on D1 though. | ||
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On June 26 2019 18:11 Pandain wrote: Hf you are truly remarkable at finding a narrative and thus ignoring absolutely all possible counter explanations or evidences. “If one man calls you an ass, ignore him. If two men call you an ass, start looking for tracks. If three men call you an ass, put on a harness.” | ||
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On June 27 2019 01:02 Holyflare wrote: I don't get how some of you think only one of shapelog or kelsier is mafia but that nobody on the mafia team decided to stop those wagons at ANY point. Eywa tried tbh. In her own way, but still. you're right though it's probably the most likely answer that they are just both mafia. | ||
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On June 27 2019 04:29 Grackaroni wrote: Lol I lied. I was veteran. I put my bets on jailer but well done | ||
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On June 27 2019 07:27 Pandain wrote: Do you think we should read into the fact that shape was not modkilled? Not rly. Whatever faction he is ruins the game if he gets modkilled. | ||
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So why does she want to lynch me again since i am not mafia with any player in her poe? Eywa is just full of shit. | ||
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On June 27 2019 14:57 Trfel wrote: Hi raynpelikoneet Yeah, that all makes enough sense anyway (@everything since my last post). Jumping way back to this. What about Pandain and Eywa-? Eywa- wasn't present at End of Day, and Pandain did everything possible to try and save Alakaslam already. I think they would have consolidated earlier, or at least kept their options open for consolidation in case it comes to Slam (i think Pandain might have been possible too maybe in some world) being lynch target.I have played as mafia with Pandain and he is not a stupid mafia player, idk it's probably best put that i dont really see them having any mafia plan together. | ||
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On June 27 2019 15:04 Trfel wrote: My take is that Eywa- wouldn't have a plan and just push you without thinking ahead. Heck, I probably wouldn't have thought that far ahead if I were mafia. Pandain can, Eywa- feels like the stubborn player who would do their own thing as mafia. I get what you're saying, and it's not super likely, but I feel like it's not outside the realm of possibility. You don't need to have two "planners", only one, and the other one to agree on a strategy. Last game in yearly finnish mafia champs we had a player pretty much like eywa and they were still capable of understanding and following plans in mafia qt. Eywa is definitely active enough to do that. | ||
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On June 26 2019 14:55 raynpelikoneet wrote: Well do you seriously think there is a chance Pandain bussed Kelsier basically all D1 just into hard-defending his 100% afk scummate Slam????? | ||
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On June 27 2019 15:31 Eversince wrote: m!Pand switches off Slam, m!Kels pulls off Slam. Your entire team just got dedicated to moving the lynch off Slam. Town lynches one of you. Even with a town on the wagon, hard to put the rest together? (I'm bad at analisis so excuse me if I come off at short, please I don't mean too.) the thing imo is that there is no information to be gained from a town lynch on D1. Literally. Whoever claims otherwise doesn't know what they are talking about. Had town lynched let's say me, they cannot still know if my reads are good or not (usually the reads are not believed because if they were why would you lynch me in the first place if my reads are good?). Noone can know if the people who switched are town or mafia and if they can explain their motivation reasonably, you have no way telling if they were jsut wrong or if they are mafia. TLDR; it doesn't really matter if your team dedicates onto a town lynch D1, especially since the game is 8v3 which makes it D3 lylo. It's better to just keep town in the dark (aka lynch townies) that to try get credit bussing your teammates because otherwise you might get caught some other day. | ||
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On June 27 2019 15:39 Eversince wrote: Yes but assuming you have a bunch of mia scum friends suddenly show up to move there vote and then town catches you? You're fucked. Kelsier hadn't voted at all, it's expected he comes in and votes as town and as mafia regardless of which faction he represents. If he can be around that is. | ||
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On June 27 2019 15:47 Eversince wrote: If that's at me my whole argument is Kels/Pand can't be mafia together like you said  .oh okay | ||
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On June 27 2019 14:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: My biggest problem with Eywa is that she wants to lynch me when she thinks i have white knighted Kelsier (aka Kelsier is town in her opinion -- and that's literally one of her biggest reasons FOR thinking i am mafia). She has also "poe'd" the game to "rayn/shapelog/kelsier has 2 mafia in them". Problem is that we can probably all agree i can't be mafia with Shapelog in any world. So why does she want to lynch me again since i am not mafia with any player in her poe? Eywa is just full of shit. any comments on this? | ||
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On June 27 2019 16:24 Holyflare wrote: I don't want to vote for a guy that's gonna get modkilled either lol so pandain is 2 bird with one stone. the problem is if he comes in last second like has happened many times before. | ||
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I think there is no way pandain is mafia unless shapelog is sooo... | ||
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do you agree it's extremely unlike anyone else is scum (aside from shapelog and me -- because even if you think i am scum you should still see my point). | ||
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On June 27 2019 16:38 Jockmcplop wrote: OK you're right you wanted a vigi to kill shapelog. I get the difference, but for me that idea works just as well using a lynch on shapelog (given that we have mucho time now to do what we want and get a nice solid PoE going). actually you're right it does. | ||
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##vote Shapelog | ||
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We kill Shapelog he flips mafia cool. He flips town we are 7v2. Kelsier slot is always mafia and noone can be mafia with slot other than me/eywa. Mafia nk 6v2 We murder Kelsier slot, 6v1 We still have time to lynch both me and eywa. ggnore | ||
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On June 27 2019 16:43 Holyflare wrote: I think both shape and kelsier are town Okay then explain which pairs are possible from "active players"? | ||
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On June 26 2019 19:12 Pandain wrote: In my opinion, Eversince is practically confirmed town. Jock, Rayn, and Trefel are 98% town. Grack and Ewya are null to slightly town. Keslier and Shape are likely mafia. why is jock on your list of mafia candidates? | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:09 Pandain wrote: From my perspective all we need to do is lynch through Jock, Shape, Kelsier, and Eywa. Shape and Kelsier being first on the list. | ||
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Still, why is jock there? You called him almost confirmed town earlier. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:22 Pandain wrote: He's not my first pick at all. He's just a possibility. I'm saying if we lynch through these 4 we will never lose. Okay which of those other three can he be mafia with and why? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Pandain 09-26-2013 11:40 PM ET (US) You clearly have never read any of my mafia games. It's not about Town cred, it's about logic, aggression, and bandwagoning town. I dont think people change, at least people dont change what's working, and that has been working for pandain as mafia. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:28 Jockmcplop wrote: Alright then if we're never lynching grack put him with hf and we have an even bigger chance of winning. I'm shit at figuring out roleclaims and what they mean, mostly they just confuse me, so in every game I play I have a similar conversation to this at some point. If y'all are sure grack is absolutely confirmed town then yeah I'll go along with it just out of ignorance. - there are no more than 1 protective role, ever (this has been discussed already) - grack has claimed a protective role - there are 3 blues in the game - the blue claims ARE gonna come out - if there is another protective role (come D2 they SHOULD have gotten a nice hit on either protecting someone (HF) or nailing scum (if jailing offensively)), they should come out RIGHT NOW. And that means Grackaroni is dead, if not today then tomorrow. Like there is no reason why Grackaroni claims like that in the first place as mafia, and there certainly is no reason why he hasn't been cc'd in case he is mafia after no-kill. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:32 Pandain wrote: That's also why if you or kelsier or shape or eywa are blue you should claim. Because you will be the last confirmed town and there's no way we will lose. That's incorrect. You/Eywa/Koshi/Shape should claim if they are blue. Not jock who almost noone is scumreading. Mafia already knows i am not blue. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:32 Pandain wrote: We know there are three blues. HF is one. That means if everyone who has a blue claims and we have three total, those three people are confirmed. Because the host has confirmed there are three. Does that make sense? Grack is not confirmed "yet" per se. But once the last blue is revealed (it always happens sooner rather than later) we will be able to know he is either telling the truth (3 claims total) or someone is lying (more than 3 blue claims) That's also why if you or kelsier or shape or eywa are blue you should claim. Because you will be the last confirmed town and there's no way we will lose. So like you tell us this, but you thought Grack is mafia after his claim even during N1? Want to explain? | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:46 Pandain wrote: I just didn't realize it. I actually post when I realize it. I know, you magically realised it right after someone absorbed a shot. It's like almost way too convenient. What you just said has been said for ages but only after there is a no-kill you are able to realise it. And also after that, jock magically appears in your "possible scum pile". When you should have no reason to call him mafia over lets say me. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:48 Holyflare wrote: With pandain: Eywa/jock most likely. Jock's posts have been less and less impressive since slam flipped. I haven't really thought about it to be honest so don't want to rule anyone else out yet. Everything is open. I can agree with jock being mafia with pandain. I will check if that makes sense thread-sentiment-wise after i have slept (still havent after night shift). I heavily disagree with Pandain+Eywa combo. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:52 Pandain wrote: I don't think it was ever said. I still don't think jock is scum. He's just less Towny than trfel es or you. Not in those exact words but yes it was. Why am i not mafia with Kelsier? Why is my whole play not mafia if Kelsier is mafia? | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:52 Jockmcplop wrote: I can see where this line of thought comes from, although I genuinely had the feeling day 1 that Pandain was buddying me pretty hard, which would be massively unsubtle if we were both mafia, no? I dont remember who was buddying who or if it even can considered as buddying. Idk why that would be unsubtle, people can agree with each other regardless of alignment. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:58 Holyflare wrote: I still don't understand the pandain eywa thing. Pandain is a planner kinda guy as mafia. You know like if me and you were in a mafia team, we would have a plan on how the game would draw out, what will most likely happen and how to deal with certain situations etc... I see no common ground regarding a mafia team plan between those two people, i mean like if one of theirs gets under suspicion they are likely fucked because they can't have enough alternatives to push based on how they have played. Quick example, eywa started the game with calling a quick lynch on pandain. It doesn't mean she can't be mafia with pandain but it means (when she didn't back off -- and tried to make me look like pandain's partner) that she can't pretty much be on a same lynch with pandain without looking bad. | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:05 Holyflare wrote: No idea :D I do think it's much more likely to just be pandain shapelog since if shape was town I'd think it would be a much better pile to jump on if I was mafia trying to save my buddy. He did only have 2 minutes though so not really sure he could have swayed people. That's why pandain vote on you is so ridiculously opportune. There's no way he goes out of his way to lynch his town read (you) for information™ over just slam who he said was a good lynch or shapelog who 2 people were already voting (you, his town read, and grack his mafia read so lots more info!). This means he knew thread sentiment. He knew I could try and be swayed and he knew I was on his partner so he goes for the most opportune switch possible. I agree Shapelog can easily be mafia with Pandain for his EOD1. But you need to lynch Shapelog first, then you can have a case if Shapelog flips mafia. That's what i think. On June 27 2019 18:07 Holyflare wrote: I don't ever plan and I don't think eywa is the kind of person to listen to any plan lol. How do you plan around an afk slam and unruly eywa? Impossible. It's probably just sit and hope nothing goes to shit and then when it did that's why pandain panicked. Well i do, and i know Pandain does. I don't know if Eywa listens to plans as mafia or not but my basic assumption is that all people do, i don't know many who don't. Like even fucking kush does.... | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:14 Pandain wrote: Dude you guys don't fucking read. It's not just about information and I would never lynch someone just based on information. It was the fact that at the end of the day I was certain slam was town. I was not certain about Rayn. the problem is you wanted to lynch me (town read) over shapelog (null read). and you have yet to explain why. you pushed all the other wagons except for shapelog, and i dont know why, since i was your townread and shapelog was not. | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:20 Pandain wrote: I would definitely have voted shape. Problem is that even if I did he would not have had enough votes to be lynched because it would be tied 3-3 with slam reaching 3 first why did you try to convince HF to vote for me over Shapelog? Did HF ever say Shapelog is town? Even if he did, ans i know he was possibly moving onto me, why did you try to convince him of lynching your townread over a null read (based on your principles you showed on Slam if we assume you're town here). | ||
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where was HF ever heavily against lynching Shape? | ||
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still you have no credibility to trash on HF this game just because he scumreads you because he lynched mafia and you were trash at eod. | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:37 Pandain wrote: also to be frank no one on the slam lynch can take credit for it because it was deliberately a "i have no idea what to do so lynch someone afk" which is exactly why everyone can take credit for it. everyone who voted for slam could have just done whatever the fuck you did and be "townie" because "wooooo we get no info for a afk lynch". | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:42 Pandain wrote: Ok sure HF is town, but we already knew that because he's confirmed. Doesn't make the play good. i dont understand any of this. | ||
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also to be frank no one on the slam lynch can take credit for it Trfel and ES as mafia could easily (in your opinion) do the same fucking bullshit things you did at eod and even one of them being mafia playing a headless chicken guarantees a non-mafia lynch. So this makes no sense at all. If you're irritated by HF, don't do as i do, do as i say. Keep your calm, take a break and then come back. Right now you aren't making much sense and not doing any good for yourself. | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:51 Holyflare wrote: Case in point. You speak in absolutes. I don't like it. Grack can easily be mafia. It's a stretch but he's never confirmed town here ever. dont be dumb... | ||
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If grack is mafia in this game i am gonna take the person who didnt cc him and make them eat my shoe in front of you in england. fucking promised. | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:55 Holyflare wrote: Not really dumb but we'll see. I agree it's a big stretch of the imagination and a massive play but I'm absolutely not ruling it out. is it really you playing or your gf or friend or something? i know you stretch things but in another direction (or universe) from what i know... | ||
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On June 27 2019 19:09 Holyflare wrote: This game is fucking boring lol. I'm confirmed town and the 2 people everyone thinks are mafia are literally modkills and there was no night kill. I couldn't think of a more mundane scenario. So I'll live in a world where there's a chance mafia grack made a play, however unlikely, just because it's more fun to. I don't currently think he's mafia but it's whatever. It's fun! i see your point. unfortunately most of the latest games have ended up with mafia being in the modkillable group and i have had many bad hair days because i didnt want to believe it (i lost and i blame myself for it). so fuck inactives kill them if other people look town. | ||
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On June 27 2019 19:16 Holyflare wrote: No respect for mafia that play under the radar. Just relies on other townies being shit and able to blend. I agree completely. Also that's prolly why i have probably the lowest winrate as town on TL or something. For the nine first years or so i chose to never believe this is the case because it's no fun game. | ||
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On June 27 2019 20:07 Jockmcplop wrote: The problem I have with hfs line of thinking here is that the game isn't boring because town are doing boring stuff. The boring stuff is.most likely cos mafia are afk/lurking. If you try too hard to force an entertaining game town will lose because you're looking for things that probably aren't there and distracting from what is basically the most reasonable strategy for a town win. It doesn't really matter what the most fun mafia pairing would be if its most likely just the afk players. but you just said grack + rayn would amuse you? | ||
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On June 27 2019 21:01 Jockmcplop wrote: It was a jokey fucking comment. No -one thinks you and grack are mafia, which is why I said that. I found it interesting since i am gameplaywise nowhere near as "confirmed" as Trfel and ES are, and Eywa btw thinks i am mafia. It probably means nothing but whatever. | ||
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Nicely played. | ||
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If i am mafia tgis game there is never a world where i am not voting kelsier at eod. I am never going to possibly sacrifice myself over any other player as mafia D1, even if it means putting my vote on scumbuddy. | ||
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On June 28 2019 03:55 Jockmcplop wrote: I understand why he was frustrated its a bit of a shitty situation getting back to a game when you've been waiting for ages to play as scum only to find the deadline was sooner than you thought and you're dead. I understand internet issues completely but missing deadline (or getting it wrong) is actually his own fault. It's not even the first time he misses deadline because he doesn't remember when it is. | ||
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I will get you the players needed. | ||
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