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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Cool.
There was at least one facist who has been elected so far, which means they either chose not to sabotage or didn't have an opportunity to sabotage. I think the facist player would usually choose to sabotage if they have the opportunity, unless they are Hitler.
Unless things really, really spiral out of control it seems unlikely that we'd hit 6 facist policies. The path to victory seems to be pretty straight forward and we have a dt check as a safe guard for when we eventually hit FFF. If we get a town result, that gives us a decent way to avoid Hitler as chancellor for half of the elections.
Either Krogan or Grack for me this cycle. I'm going to re-read one more time before I decide to see if I can figure out who the elected facist might be.
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Gimme a couple of hours i need to count something when i am home.
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I am entertaining the possibility of just passing three cards.
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The possibility of drawing FFF is 6/8 x 5/7 x 4/6 which is approx 35,7%
So about 65% of the time we hit at least one liberal (well i'd stop right away if we get liberal anyways).
If we happen to hit FFF the deck is resuffled.
Second fascist policy goes to krogan who i believe is town, he gets the investigation. I would trust the result. krogan can investigate kitaman.
Third fascist policy goes to kitaman, in case he is town. If not then we will do something else but we know kitaman (or at least one of krogan / kitaman) is mafia.
Is there anyone who believes that krogan is mafia? Because in my opinion from the presidents (if you think someone is mafia there) Grackaroni looks the worst for not passing FL instead of LL (passibg FL to prplhz is the correct play there). That's not much, but still a possiblilty, i would find it more likely that mafia are just rels/byj/kitaman/(prplhz).
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Wait no the deck is not reshuffled but the tracker hits zero and we can just pass Rels (which we would based on current info do anyways) and give me the 4th presidency, and in case that hits F too i can shoot hitler in da face.
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The thing is we also get information about if someone has lied or not more accurately if we try to use most of the cards in the deck. If noone is lying then krogan is almost always town and Conversion is definitely town.
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lolol i am actually not sure if it is the best play to use the whole deck right here. 
Probably the only downside is if the last 2 liberal cards are in the bottom 3, or if we happen to elect hitler as chancellor after 3F.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Yeah I'm around, but I'm at work still so my posting might be a bit sporadic
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Yeah, give me a second to look it over.
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happykrogan have you played secret hitler before?
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Sentinel, what if there is a situation where the current president would get an ability by 2nd, 3rd, or so on fascist policy being enacted, but the policy is enacted by election tracker going to three, who gets to use the ability? I am not that familiar with the rules so it would be nice if we'd get a GM confirmation on what happens then.
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I don't like the plan because it goes really badly if Krogan is scum, and I think there is still a decent chance that he is scum. Thinking about the president powers I'd rather try Kita or Rels (would prefer Rels but I assume it will be Kita) and leave you with the check if there's a failed mission.
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Why is there a decent chance that krogan is scum?
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I also have absolutely no idea why you think Rels is town....... Because he called you town?????????
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On November 07 2018 07:03 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't like the plan because it goes really badly if Krogan is scum, and I think there is still a decent chance that he is scum. Thinking about the president powers I'd rather try Kita or Rels (would prefer Rels but I assume it will be Kita) and leave you with the check if there's a failed mission.
Basically your town ppl are;
you, me, conversion, rels, kitaman
right?
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On November 07 2018 07:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 07:03 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't like the plan because it goes really badly if Krogan is scum, and I think there is still a decent chance that he is scum. Thinking about the president powers I'd rather try Kita or Rels (would prefer Rels but I assume it will be Kita) and leave you with the check if there's a failed mission. Basically your town ppl are; you, me, conversion, rels, kitaman right?
No I'm pretty close to the same page as Rels.
I think the most likely team is Prplhz/Kitaman/HK
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On November 07 2018 07:11 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 07:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2018 07:03 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't like the plan because it goes really badly if Krogan is scum, and I think there is still a decent chance that he is scum. Thinking about the president powers I'd rather try Kita or Rels (would prefer Rels but I assume it will be Kita) and leave you with the check if there's a failed mission. Basically your town ppl are; you, me, conversion, rels, kitaman right? No I'm pretty close to the same page as Rels. I think the most likely team is Prplhz/Kitaman/HK
Can you elaborate here a bit more.
Why does Conversion's gov pass if this is the case? Or even your gov?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
So assuming everyone is telling the truth, with 6F and 2L left in the deck:
35.5% FFF
54.5% FFL
11% FLL
0 % LLL
Which gives me a 65% chance of passing a liberal policy to Krogan like you say. If he passes liberal, then we're at 4 and it's pretty much trivial playing things out from there.
If I get FFF, then that means 3F and 2L is left in the deck, which allows us to follow through with your plan. Either we win the game outright or Krogan can check me if we get unlucky and reach a second facist policy. Then I can serve as Chancellor for every odd cycle since it would guarantee we're not electing Hitler and I'd have a town check on me to prove it. The only different from your plan that I'd suggest is that the player with the town DT check should be given the gun to shoot Hitler if we make it that far.
The only flaws I'm seeing are 3F, followed by 3F which would be really unlucky (10% * 35% = 3.5% I think?) or if someone was lying about which card they discarded, which still puts us in a solid spot with this plan since at worse, we're 1 card off.
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EPT
