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Kelsier: why are you voting for Sergio?
You start focusing on Sergio with this post (which happened during the day 1 lynch):
On September 08 2018 22:45 KelsierSC wrote:
I'd only lynch sergio or vivax today.
I think Koshi is very weird and gives me a bad feeling but not enough to lynch on.
There's about 5 people who haven't posted so no idea what's going to happen with that but everyone else I sort of have reasons not to lynch.
At this point, the only person to call him out is Koshi (as being connected to HolyFlare). Plus, your post comes one post after you yourself called out Koshi:
On September 08 2018 22:39 KelsierSC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 21:30 Holyflare wrote:
I am town though. I don't think Kaley is mafia purely because they are just fighting back at Rayn being a dick. Sergio's posts look scummy because they are finding reasons out of nothing. Irrationally angry at me making one post that said nothing and laying out all the "options" seem feigned.
Will try and post more. Yeh I don't understand calling you "pants on head retarded" after you made one post about kaley's rhymes. @vivax Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 16:16 Vivax wrote:
I really don't like how I was talked into making my kaley read appear stronger than it was. It was a crappy feels-read coupled with the rayn vote which I would describe as ballsy. That said, it makes me feel entrapped that everyone is riding this train of thought that I'm mafia for that read after making me talk so much about it which really isn't something that felt that important to me.
That said, I was expecting more fleshed out "raps" afterwards or at least that kaley would start posting normally, and the latest one isn't very informative as Qatol points out above. So I don't see a reason to still mantain that read. I'll be waiting for more content before scumreading anyone however. at any time you could have said it was just a bad read based on nothing but you defended your read and acted that kaley was pushing rayn with a valid reason. Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 03:50 Vivax wrote:
I see no reason to think it should be fake? Rayn threatened to lynch her without really even trying to read into the post so that's a reason to vote off rayn from kaleys perspective. Honestly this weird thing where you have now come back and said it "wasnt a real read" and then Koshi saying Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 20:57 Koshi wrote:On September 08 2018 16:16 Vivax wrote:
I really don't like how I was talked into making my kaley read appear stronger than it was. It was a crappy feels-read coupled with the rayn vote which I would describe as ballsy. That said, it makes me feel entrapped that everyone is riding this train of thought that I'm mafia for that read after making me talk so much about it which really isn't something that felt that important to me.
That said, I was expecting more fleshed out "raps" afterwards or at least that kaley would start posting normally, and the latest one isn't very informative as Qatol points out above. So I don't see a reason to still mantain that read. I'll be waiting for more content before scumreading anyone however. Oh damn. He did what I thought town Vivax would do. I even remembered something in the shower I didn't like: On September 08 2018 01:31 Vivax wrote:
I think Sergio is overanalyzing early game stuff, but not in a necessarily scummy way, he may just be overeager townie. That makes me unable to agree with him on his points. I believe he shouldn't give so much weight to what Koshi did so far.
I think kaley is town. Btw I never was able to like rap/hip-hop. Hard for me to explain this read, mostly gut and that he's going after rayn of all people.
Not a big fan of a Qatols version as a summary is the best that anyone could have delivered on early game banter and I see the opportunity for mafia here to jump on a kaley lynch after rayn (if town) said he would p-lynch for the rap. I'll ultimately refrain from scumreading Qatol here as pushing arguments early here is a good thing for town and not necessary for mafia, but I don't agree with them. imho that line wasn't needed but now that I reread it isn't as bad as I thought. Anyway. Vivax tip top town just looks really weird and contrived between the two of you. I can't say you are both mafia but I think one of you definitely is.
When rayn asks you about it, you just say he should read the thread and ask you.
On September 09 2018 02:29 KelsierSC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2018 01:32 raynpelikoneet wrote:
My vote is not on Kaley for policy. My vote is on Kaley because after deciphering his posts the only thing that he has said is a scumread on me and a scumread on Qatol for apparently no other reason than us calling out anti-town behavior (lol). It's literally super ridiculous reasoning to scumread anyone, especially since both me and Qatol have NOT ONLY focused on him in this game, aka there is also other content to analyse. Those scumreads cannot be legit because they are based on a reasoning that doesn't make anyone mafia and anyone with half brain can understand that. And i don't automatically assume people who play this game are stupid. Basically he is present but not playing mafia, and i associate that with alignment mafia.
I am gonna downgrade Kelsier too because i have absolutely no idea where that Serge scumread comes from and why does he have to couple him with Vivax (i mean why not only push Vivax if he strongly thinks Vivax is mafia?) there, after completely zero mentions of the guy all game before now. could just read and ask me
This is me asking you.
In your most recent vote, you say you're voting him because of Koshi's read. Do you have any special reason to trust Koshi's reads other than because he flipped town? His read was contingent on HolyFlare flipping mafia because he saw a connection between Sergio and HolyFlare, which didn't happen. Why do you still think his read was correct?
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So you asked me to do that post just for giggles? Why ask for a post and then not discuss anything in it other than its length?
Also, the Vivax post was a continuation of a previous post, post #250 (posted for reference)
+ Show Spoiler +On September 10 2018 04:06 Qatol wrote:On another note, Vivax, I'm confused by your vote as well. I would like to hear more from you about it. Show nested quote +On September 09 2018 01:57 Vivax wrote:
I don't think Sergio is mafia. But he seems to be a bit of a dick if he asks rayn to play nice then proceeds to call Koshis posts trash. I think Koshi is rather townie.
I think we should lynch RoL, cause RoL always flips mafia.
##Vote RoL So you have town reads on Sergio and Koshi. Your filter reveals you wanting to refrain from scumreading anyone. You softly defend Kaley and softly scumread me here: Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 01:31 Vivax wrote:
I think Sergio is overanalyzing early game stuff, but not in a necessarily scummy way, he may just be overeager townie. That makes me unable to agree with him on his points. I believe he shouldn't give so much weight to what Koshi did so far.
I think kaley is town. Btw I never was able to like rap/hip-hop. Hard for me to explain this read, mostly gut and that he's going after rayn of all people.
Not a big fan of a Qatols version as a summary is the best that anyone could have delivered on early game banter and I see the opportunity for mafia here to jump on a kaley lynch after rayn (if town) said he would p-lynch for the rap. I'll ultimately refrain from scumreading Qatol here as pushing arguments early here is a good thing for town and not necessary for mafia, but I don't agree with them. But then you back off from it here: Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 16:16 Vivax wrote:
I really don't like how I was talked into making my kaley read appear stronger than it was. It was a crappy feels-read coupled with the rayn vote which I would describe as ballsy. That said, it makes me feel entrapped that everyone is riding this train of thought that I'm mafia for that read after making me talk so much about it which really isn't something that felt that important to me.
That said, I was expecting more fleshed out "raps" afterwards or at least that kaley would start posting normally, and the latest one isn't very informative as Qatol points out above. So I don't see a reason to still mantain that read. I'll be waiting for more content before scumreading anyone however.
But then, out of nowhere, you decide to vote for RoL, someone who hasn't even posted, has no votes on him, and is thus extremely unlikely to be lynched. Why? Just so your vote won't matter? How do you think that helps? You're just making it easier for the mafia to influence the vote. Especially in a game that's this as inactive as this one has been, this vote sticks out, considering you have been actively posting in the thread.
This vote looks to me like you are afraid to take a stand against anyone. This really looks to me like you could be mafia who is pleased with how the lynch is going and didn't want to be accused of making a bandwagon vote. So please explain.
Are you even reading? It feels like you're randomly throwing out accusations without even bothering to put together any sort of real case. Please, provide a real argument. Point to specific statements. This is seriously the most you have contributed to the game so far, unless you count pushing for lynches of inactives or defending Vivax because he thought Kaley was a smurf (a point that shouldn't really matter) and voted RoL. I'd like to get more conversation out of you.
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Err EBWOP (I messed up the spoiler tag)
So you asked me to do that post just for giggles? Why ask for a post and then not discuss anything in it other than its length?
Also, the Vivax post was a continuation of a previous post, post #250 (posted for reference)
+ Show Spoiler +On September 10 2018 04:06 Qatol wrote:On another note, Vivax, I'm confused by your vote as well. I would like to hear more from you about it. Show nested quote +On September 09 2018 01:57 Vivax wrote:
I don't think Sergio is mafia. But he seems to be a bit of a dick if he asks rayn to play nice then proceeds to call Koshis posts trash. I think Koshi is rather townie.
I think we should lynch RoL, cause RoL always flips mafia.
##Vote RoL So you have town reads on Sergio and Koshi. Your filter reveals you wanting to refrain from scumreading anyone. You softly defend Kaley and softly scumread me here: Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 01:31 Vivax wrote:
I think Sergio is overanalyzing early game stuff, but not in a necessarily scummy way, he may just be overeager townie. That makes me unable to agree with him on his points. I believe he shouldn't give so much weight to what Koshi did so far.
I think kaley is town. Btw I never was able to like rap/hip-hop. Hard for me to explain this read, mostly gut and that he's going after rayn of all people.
Not a big fan of a Qatols version as a summary is the best that anyone could have delivered on early game banter and I see the opportunity for mafia here to jump on a kaley lynch after rayn (if town) said he would p-lynch for the rap. I'll ultimately refrain from scumreading Qatol here as pushing arguments early here is a good thing for town and not necessary for mafia, but I don't agree with them. But then you back off from it here: Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 16:16 Vivax wrote:
I really don't like how I was talked into making my kaley read appear stronger than it was. It was a crappy feels-read coupled with the rayn vote which I would describe as ballsy. That said, it makes me feel entrapped that everyone is riding this train of thought that I'm mafia for that read after making me talk so much about it which really isn't something that felt that important to me.
That said, I was expecting more fleshed out "raps" afterwards or at least that kaley would start posting normally, and the latest one isn't very informative as Qatol points out above. So I don't see a reason to still mantain that read. I'll be waiting for more content before scumreading anyone however. But then, out of nowhere, you decide to vote for RoL, someone who hasn't even posted, has no votes on him, and is thus extremely unlikely to be lynched. Why? Just so your vote won't matter? How do you think that helps? You're just making it easier for the mafia to influence the vote. Especially in a game that's this as inactive as this one has been, this vote sticks out, considering you have been actively posting in the thread. This vote looks to me like you are afraid to take a stand against anyone. This really looks to me like you could be mafia who is pleased with how the lynch is going and didn't want to be accused of making a bandwagon vote. So please explain.
Are you even reading? It feels like you're randomly throwing out accusations without even bothering to put together any sort of real case. Please, provide a real argument. Point to specific statements. This is seriously the most you have contributed to the game so far, unless you count pushing for lynches of inactives or defending Vivax because he thought Kaley was a smurf (a point that shouldn't really matter) and voted RoL. I'd like to get more conversation out of you.
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On September 11 2018 03:26 prplhz wrote:
I thought I'd get more out of the night kill discussion with you than I got but that didn't happen. I can't know in advance if your answer will help me discern your alignment.
I don't really get the rest of your post as I didn't vote RoL, I (confusingly) retroactively recommended him for a lynch on D1 (after Kaley had been lynched) and a possible lynch on D2. Like, my first posts were just my thoughts upon reading the game after not having read anything yet.
I don't think that voting for you makes me look afraid. You're kind of a big deal I think? Or used to be back in the days but you still have some of that going on for you.
I'm not really sure what else you were hoping to get. Also, read the second post, not the first one. I screwed up the spoiler tag. The RoL vote thing was about Vivax.
Who said anything about being afraid? All I said is that you haven't been posting and it would be helpful to hear more from you. If you feel strongly enough to vote for me, you should be able to make a reasonable argument that isn't just "Koshi and HolyFlare thought you were scummy" and "your Vivax post is shorter than your night analysis post". FYI, Koshi's primary argument was I'm too friendly, which you yourself pointed out doesn't really apply to players from my era, and he was asking me for advice on his vigi hit by the time he died. Half of HolyFlare's argument was just plain wrong, and the other half is me asking a question that I'm still wondering why more people weren't asking right before the lynch.
On September 11 2018 03:30 prplhz wrote:
Generally you don't avoid conflict in a game like this. I know it's a newbie game but it's full of veterans who will hold you up on every little thing you say.
So please find something. Say something. It gives us all a better opportunity to read you.
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Okay, then let's talk about other people. Who else do you think could be a potential mafia member? Is it 2 inactives? Also, how do you feel about the other people who have votes, Vivax and Sergio? Do you still feel like Vivax is on the up and up?
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On September 11 2018 22:29 KelsierSC wrote:
I am conflicted on who to lynch. Vivax would be a good lynch as he hasn't contributed anything meaningful apart from that bad kaley read which has been talked about.
H
My vote on sergio is just looking at Koshi's reads, Sergio's strange response to HF and the way he went about asking his questions , which felt like "this is how town should play".
However again there's a lot of question marks due to the large number of AFK's.
RoL and Meapak are pretty much done at this point. But guys like prplhz , rels, damdred havent done anything at all.
prplhz especially just looks like spam to avoid a modkill.
It feels wrong to lynch someone like vivax or sergio who are playing the game and letting people who aren't doing anything slip through. My plan is to hover around at deadline and look for someone trying to dodge the modkill with some meaningless posts and lynch that guy.
Realistically all we have to go on is the mafia kill of koshi.
I can see 3 different reasons.
1) They read Koshi as a role
2) Koshi had good reads
3) Koshi is a good player and a good medic dodge.
1) Did Koshi really say anything that screamed he was a role, I don't see it. If you did read him as a role you assume he'd use his power on HF, Sergio or Qatol. That wouldn't necessarily incriminate anyone right as if you think you found a blue you just kill them.
Can anyone give me a post from Koshi that looks blue ? The only other option I see is that mafia is good enough or familiar enough with Koshi to read him as blue based on very little , or at least his game being different from town and mafia know he isn't mafia so must be blue. I'd only give Rayn that much credit.
2) Koshi having good reads , well he had HF as mafia and that was wrong but he had Sergio and Qatol as mafia which makes the two of them look bad. I'm not sure of the two of them who it makes worse.
3) If no one is really close to mafia you just lynch a good townie. Rayn and HF are N1 medic targets or rayn could be mafia so you just kill the next best guy which would be Koshi.
Sticking point behind a Rayn being mafia theory is that Rayn and Koshi townread eachother pretty hard.
So I see two helpful scenaris
Rayn is mafia and killed Koshi as they have familiarity etc and potentially rayn could read him as blue
Kosih was killed for his reads which would make Sergio or Qatol mafia, of the two i'd prefer Sergio.
I've rambled on a lot here as I try to order my thoughts. So my play is to stay active at deadline then lynch into any AFK trying to ninja post/vote. But i'm keeping eyes on rayn and sergio.
What the heck is this? This looks like you restated post #286, except you don't identify the posts where Koshi hinted he had a role (posts 76, 246, and 252).
Why is HolyFlare a good N1 medic target? Koshi was sumreading HF really hard. In fact, Koshi thought HF was scummy enough to use a vigi shot on him. Shouldn't that mean "do not shoot HF at all costs?"
I'm surprised you group Vivax together with Sergio as "playing the game" but prplhz and Rels as not. I agree Sergio is contributing. The other three seem to have contributed about the same amount to the conversation, unless you count arguing over whether Kaley was a smurf or lightly townreading Kaley without reading.
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On September 11 2018 22:39 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I think i want to lynch Kelsier.
Make a good case for it and I'll probably back you. That last post doesn't sit so well with me. I'll look and see if I see anything redeeming in his filter.
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Or you just made an argument and I hadn't refreshed yet. BRB reading.
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On September 11 2018 23:48 KelsierSC wrote:
both you and Qatol could just ask for an explanation rather than posting a bunch of insulting stuff which makes you look foolish
I never meant to insult you and I sincerely apologize if there's anything I said that did insult you. Please let me know what I said so I can do better in the future. I really do try my hardest to attack arguments, not people.
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On September 11 2018 23:53 KelsierSC wrote:
Nothing is happening in D2, literally no one is posting.
The only thing I have to work with is the Koshi night kill so I posted my thoughts on it, even asking for people to link me posts where koshi hinted at blue and I get called mafia and people saying "what the heck is this"
I am voting sergio at the start of the day because of the Koshi nightkill and my own thoughts on D1. I still have vivax as scum but im using the new information for my vote.
However as there hasn't been anything contributed this day and we have a bunch of AFK's i would rather lynch one of those NOW. I haven't unvoted sergio yet.
Okay, my apologies for that comment. You are completely right, I shouldn't have said that. I was just a little surprised because you clearly took quite a bit of time to say almost exactly the same things I did.
On September 11 2018 23:54 KelsierSC wrote:
and why is HF a good N1 medic target? because he is the best player on the site and mafia usually tries to kill those people.
This is also something I wasn't aware of; his first game seems to be ~2 years after I stopped following the site closely. As far as I'm concerned, Ver is still the best mafia player on the site.
I am curious what statements from HolyFlare and Koshi you're relying on to vote Sergio.
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On September 11 2018 23:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
dear god, did Koshi actually hint being blue?
I was ~90% sure he was from post #76 (though not which role). He didn't seem the type to frequently get lynched day 1, which would be the only other reason I could see for him to get that nervous about getting lynched that early. It's why my strategy with him was to basically tell the thread "look at him later, but he might be suspicious."
Looking back at it, posts 246 and 252 were pretty clear requests for our blessing on how he was using his vigi hit.
I think there's a chance the mafia could have caught on.
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On September 12 2018 00:27 KelsierSC wrote:
Prplhz could definitely be mafia.
His timing to pop up in the thread end of the night is oddly suspicious
Do you have any arguments about him other than his timing?
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On September 12 2018 00:23 KelsierSC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2018 00:12 Qatol wrote:On September 11 2018 23:53 KelsierSC wrote:
Nothing is happening in D2, literally no one is posting.
The only thing I have to work with is the Koshi night kill so I posted my thoughts on it, even asking for people to link me posts where koshi hinted at blue and I get called mafia and people saying "what the heck is this"
I am voting sergio at the start of the day because of the Koshi nightkill and my own thoughts on D1. I still have vivax as scum but im using the new information for my vote.
However as there hasn't been anything contributed this day and we have a bunch of AFK's i would rather lynch one of those NOW. I haven't unvoted sergio yet.
Okay, my apologies for that comment. You are completely right, I shouldn't have said that. I was just a little surprised because you clearly took quite a bit of time to say almost exactly the same things I did. On September 11 2018 23:54 KelsierSC wrote:
and why is HF a good N1 medic target? because he is the best player on the site and mafia usually tries to kill those people. This is also something I wasn't aware of; his first game seems to be ~2 years after I stopped following the site closely. As far as I'm concerned, Ver is still the best mafia player on the site. I am curious what statements from HolyFlare and Koshi you're relying on to vote Sergio. There was this comment from Sergio which I mentioned I didn't like. Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 13:45 Sergiovan wrote:
Holyflare appears either pants-on-head-useless or mafia. Over 24 hours into the game and he appears just to place an awful vote with literally no reason. Hf: do you genuinely believe that Kaley is scum, if so why?
People who know holyflare: is this behavior possible from a town HF? That is, is he bad enough to do nothing day one besides avoid a modkill but also be town aligned.
This felt wrong to me, completely out of proportion to what had happened. A lot of the game hadn't even posted at that time and he lashes out at hf really strongly. I'm looking back over what Koshi wrote and he didn't make a "sergio is mafia for X" reasons. He did reference a scum read on him several times though. An example comment. Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 21:26 Koshi wrote:On September 08 2018 13:49 Sergiovan wrote:
1) pants-on-head-useless 2) scum 3) townie who thinks they are making some slick play. imho Sergio should stick to singing great belgian songs. 1) Why? pants on head because he voted somebody? Why? 2) Why? scum because he voted somebody? Why? 3) Why? townie who thinks they are making some slick play because he voted somebody? Why? Weird. Total weird. I've looked back over koshi's posts and it's a bit of a drunken mess but his main scum reads are you , sergio and hf. Hf is dead If I want to find reasons he was killed it's because either you or sergio are scum. Or he was read as a role and I think only rayn is familiar enough or good enough to do that. The third option is he was a town who was killed to dodge medic saves but that could be done by anyone so it isn't helpful.
I don't see the post you're pointing to as being a scumread, more like calling Sergio out for not explaining his actions better. Koshi did push Sergio, but only as a conditional (i.e., if Holyflare then Sergiovan). Wouldn't that mean the mafia has every reason to leave Koshi alive and let him push holyflare for lynch day 2? I am not defending Sergio by any means, but I like arguments that make sense to me and this one doesn't.
You said you are looking for reasons Koshi was killed and the strongest reason you can think of is because either Sergio or I am scum. You pointed out that he went after Sergio and myself. You mentioned HolyFlare is the best mafia player on the site. He was pushing me harder than anyone else. Further, Holyflare's very last post said this:
On September 10 2018 07:07 Holyflare wrote:
Sergio cool now.
Why aren't you pushing me? Why Sergio?
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rayn, I haven't forgotten you. I think you overstate your case a little bit, but you have a couple of good points.
You've played enough games to know that people will sometimes vote for the person that was being accused by the night kill target. I can absolutely see a townie voting for Sergio based on Koshi's posts (even though I think Koshi's argument has fallen apart). I don't think he ever said he was voting Sergio based on HF's reads (though why isn't he looking at HF's reads more closely if he thinks HF is a better player than Koshi? just because of the night kill?)
Easily your strongest point is this:
As a cherry on top of the cake he says this: Show nested quote +It feels wrong to lynch someone like vivax or sergio who are playing the game and letting people who aren't doing anything slip through. My plan is to hover around at deadline and look for someone trying to dodge the modkill with some meaningless posts and lynch that guy. What's the point of voting for someone who you aren't even planning on lynching????? The pressure factor is gone right here because Kelsier basically said he is going to do something else by the end of the day.
I absolutely agree on this point and would like Kelsier to explain the logic behind this point. At the end of the day, everyone in this game signed up to play. If they are at all interested in playing more in the future, why wouldn't they try to dodge a modkill? This looks to me like a push to, at best (assuming proportional inactives between the mafia and town), to take a shot in the dark prayer, hoping to hit mafia.
I would like to see Kelsier respond to some of these points before I vote him though.
On a related point, I strongly disagree with anyone who thinks that lynching an inactive at this point is the best policy. We have no way to identify whether they are town or mafia whatsoever, except by process of elimination. Plus we know that at least someone from the mafia is participating in the game (or there wouldn't have been a night kill). The odds are simply not behind a blind shot in the dark.
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Argh, all of that took too long and I have to go. I'll be back in a few hours. While I was posting that, it looks like Vivax started posting. Vivax, please respond to post #250.
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On September 12 2018 01:14 KelsierSC wrote:
Because I can see the scenario where Koshi is lynched either for role because he scum reads qatol and it makes hf/sergio look bad in the process. But then HF dies unexpectedly and now Qatol is kind of fucked.
If this looks like a sheep and a massive contradiction to what i've been saying , that's because it is.
##Vote: Qatol
As odd as it is to say considering you wound up voting for me, thank you. This is the post I was looking for, though I disagree with the result (as I still don't think HF's argument made any sense and I still don't think Koshi found me scummy when he died). I'm taking this as a strong statement of "fed up townie who doesn't know what to think after defending himself for 2 pages."
On September 12 2018 04:20 KelsierSC wrote:
Ok so we have about 19 different people who have votes on them, Rels, damdred,vivax, me,qatol, sergio ...anyone else?
Just consolidate votes because right now mafia just vote on whichever rando target isnt them and this lynch is a crap shoot.
HF and Koshi both had Qatol as scum, looking at the night kills koshi is a great one for qatol to make but he didnt count on hf being shot. it's a genuinely solid lynch and should be a good one.
The AFK lynch is a crap shoot and any votes there are bad and make you instantly scummy, any "reason" for rels or damdred or RoL or prpl at this point is sort shitty.
You can pick another person if you legitimately make a good case on them, fuck you can think rayn is right and vote me I wont give a shit just dont vote on an AFK and peace out.
This is also true, and was exactly what I was thinking getting to this point. 1-2 votes on a bunch of different people is ridiculously easy for the mafia to manipulate. As I posted earlier, lynching an inactive is just silly.
That includes Damdred. If he doesn't post by this time day 3, I'm fine with a lynch on him. Until then, we have no idea why he didn't come back and his disappearance says nothing to us about whether or not he's mafia.
Of the people with votes right now, I would most prefer a lynch of Vivax. I could live with a Rels lynch. I'm also not comfortable with how heavily prplhz has been defending/sheeping Vivax all game (post 266, post 291, post 355). He said:
On September 11 2018 05:20 prplhz wrote:
Generally I find some people who
1) Are good at finding scum
2) Are town
And then I sheep them. That's really how I do. I rarely do a lot of analysis because I'm really not very good at it. But I wrote a few points on you that I myself find to be something I would expect more from scum.
So prplhz decided to latch onto Vivax? What exactly makes you (prplhz) think Vivax is town? What makes you think he's good at finding scum?
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On September 12 2018 04:20 Sergiovan wrote:
Qatol: as to post #282 you could be right. I’ve re-read your post with the double negatives (#247) a couple of times and what I was reading into it actually could easily be you mis-writing what you meant or me mis-reading it.
I think what you meant was that no pushback = town!kaley which is a fine argument to make but your post still gives me the heebie-jeebies and I just can’t explain why.
Qatol’s post #286 shows that he successfully read Koshi as blue d1. Given that Koshi was pushing two townies, HF and myself, as red for most of n1 I can’t think of another reason for scum to kill Koshi besides his role. (I can’t expect any of you to share my read of this necessarily at this point since I haven’t flipped but you’ll have to trust me on this or return to it after I flip).
Based on my gut feelings and this potential scum slip Qatol is second priority for the lynch. Though his push on Vivax has me going back and forth in my head since I happen to think Vivax is scummier than Qatol and I do not think they are scum together since I believe that Vivax’s RB claim is too high risk for a scum team with multiple active members in this town.
You are correct in what I meant. I probably worded it poorly. My apologies.
Post #286 wasn't a slip. I stated it again in post #323. He was unnaturally nervous in post #76, and I caught it. And, although I didn't catch it at the time, there isn't really another reason why he would be urgently gathering reads on HF in the middle of the night while drunk (posts #248 and #252) other than vigilante or detective, with vigilante being most likely. He could have waited until he was sober otherwise. I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia caught it too.
As far as your case on Vivax goes:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 12 2018 04:09 Sergiovan wrote:
The case for Vivax
In this case I will show that Vivax has shown out of game knowledge of alignments that could only come from scum.
In post #89 Vivax explains a town read on Kaley that comes mostly “from the gut” while also trying to give real reasoning for it I.e. that Kaley is attacking Rayn.
But in post #119 Vivax says that he isn’t sure if Kaley is genuinely pushing Rayn and that he hasn’t read her full post.
Therefore the alignment read that Vivax had on Kaley didn’t come from an actual read but was instead manufactured by Vivax
## Vote: Vivax
Somewhat tangentially I also believe that, assuming I’m right and Vivax is scum, the other two scum will be very in active as his claim of being role blocked is high reward/high risk as any counter claim would instantly put Vivax on the chopping block while a lack of one could lead towards a ‘confirmed town’ status for Vivax.
Assuming a Scum!Vivax I believe the d3 lynch should be RoL since he is an inactive and Vivax put an inexplicable d1 vote on him.
Your primary argument is one that was made previously, including by you in post #147. I think it makes sense and it should make sense.
However, I disagree that both other two scum have to be inactive. I don't know how new you are to TL mafia, but it's pretty much always been the case that mafia can communicate privately. In this game, in the sample PMs:
On August 20 2018 00:58 kitaman27 wrote:Sample PMs:Show nested quote +Mafia Roleblocker
The mafia team is:
A quicktopic has been provided for your team:
Mafia has a quicktopic in which they can communicate. That's why Vivax's roleblock claim does not and should not move the needle unless he dies and flips town (which I don't think will happen). If there is a roleblocker at all (also not guaranteed), the mafia could just not use it and have Vivax claim it was placed on him.
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On September 12 2018 05:08 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2018 04:55 Qatol wrote:On September 12 2018 01:14 KelsierSC wrote:
Because I can see the scenario where Koshi is lynched either for role because he scum reads qatol and it makes hf/sergio look bad in the process. But then HF dies unexpectedly and now Qatol is kind of fucked.
If this looks like a sheep and a massive contradiction to what i've been saying , that's because it is.
##Vote: Qatol As odd as it is to say considering you wound up voting for me, thank you. This is the post I was looking for, though I disagree with the result (as I still don't think HF's argument made any sense and I still don't think Koshi found me scummy when he died). I'm taking this as a strong statement of "fed up townie who doesn't know what to think after defending himself for 2 pages." On September 12 2018 04:20 KelsierSC wrote:
Ok so we have about 19 different people who have votes on them, Rels, damdred,vivax, me,qatol, sergio ...anyone else?
Just consolidate votes because right now mafia just vote on whichever rando target isnt them and this lynch is a crap shoot.
HF and Koshi both had Qatol as scum, looking at the night kills koshi is a great one for qatol to make but he didnt count on hf being shot. it's a genuinely solid lynch and should be a good one.
The AFK lynch is a crap shoot and any votes there are bad and make you instantly scummy, any "reason" for rels or damdred or RoL or prpl at this point is sort shitty.
You can pick another person if you legitimately make a good case on them, fuck you can think rayn is right and vote me I wont give a shit just dont vote on an AFK and peace out. This is also true, and was exactly what I was thinking getting to this point. 1-2 votes on a bunch of different people is ridiculously easy for the mafia to manipulate. As I posted earlier, lynching an inactive is just silly. That includes Damdred. If he doesn't post by this time day 3, I'm fine with a lynch on him. Until then, we have no idea why he didn't come back and his disappearance says nothing to us about whether or not he's mafia. Of the people with votes right now, I would most prefer a lynch of Vivax. I could live with a Rels lynch. I'm also not comfortable with how heavily prplhz has been defending/sheeping Vivax all game (post 266, post 291, post 355). He said: On September 11 2018 05:20 prplhz wrote:
Generally I find some people who
1) Are good at finding scum
2) Are town
And then I sheep them. That's really how I do. I rarely do a lot of analysis because I'm really not very good at it. But I wrote a few points on you that I myself find to be something I would expect more from scum. So prplhz decided to latch onto Vivax? What exactly makes you (prplhz) think Vivax is town? What makes you think he's good at finding scum? I already thought he was town yesterday for pushing against the Kaley lynch with some decent arguments. I don't know if he's great at finding scum, I agree with him on Damdred and I find it more likely we'll lynch Damdred over you today.
Which push against the Kaley lynch? Which arguments? The ones he later admitted were part of "a crappy feels-read?"
Or maybe this one?
On September 09 2018 01:16 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 23:06 Rels wrote:On September 08 2018 03:23 Vivax wrote:
I don't see how anyone could think that kaley is anything but a smurf. why ? Yea it isn't a smurf after reading through the profile. And it sure as hell isn't a she. I was sure it was a new acc just for this game, meh. I was wrong. But the rapping thing isn't something exclusive to this game. It's just his hobby. I don't want to vote him though. There's too many shitty votes on kaley floating about, some policy like rayn, some for weird analysis of the rap like from Qatol. And you for no reason.
If that's the case, why are you pushing for what is effectively a policy lynch on damdred now? Note that Vivax called rayn's policy vote a "shitty vote" in the post I quoted.
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On September 12 2018 05:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So Vivax is basically confirmed town unless the roleblock went on Holyflare.
Whats up Serge? Youre voting for confirmed town.
Or unless there's no roleblocker. Or unless the roleblocker decided not to roleblock (might be an inactive? might be a strategy by the mafia?)
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On September 12 2018 05:47 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2018 05:40 Qatol wrote:On September 12 2018 05:08 prplhz wrote:On September 12 2018 04:55 Qatol wrote:On September 12 2018 01:14 KelsierSC wrote:
Because I can see the scenario where Koshi is lynched either for role because he scum reads qatol and it makes hf/sergio look bad in the process. But then HF dies unexpectedly and now Qatol is kind of fucked.
If this looks like a sheep and a massive contradiction to what i've been saying , that's because it is.
##Vote: Qatol As odd as it is to say considering you wound up voting for me, thank you. This is the post I was looking for, though I disagree with the result (as I still don't think HF's argument made any sense and I still don't think Koshi found me scummy when he died). I'm taking this as a strong statement of "fed up townie who doesn't know what to think after defending himself for 2 pages." On September 12 2018 04:20 KelsierSC wrote:
Ok so we have about 19 different people who have votes on them, Rels, damdred,vivax, me,qatol, sergio ...anyone else?
Just consolidate votes because right now mafia just vote on whichever rando target isnt them and this lynch is a crap shoot.
HF and Koshi both had Qatol as scum, looking at the night kills koshi is a great one for qatol to make but he didnt count on hf being shot. it's a genuinely solid lynch and should be a good one.
The AFK lynch is a crap shoot and any votes there are bad and make you instantly scummy, any "reason" for rels or damdred or RoL or prpl at this point is sort shitty.
You can pick another person if you legitimately make a good case on them, fuck you can think rayn is right and vote me I wont give a shit just dont vote on an AFK and peace out. This is also true, and was exactly what I was thinking getting to this point. 1-2 votes on a bunch of different people is ridiculously easy for the mafia to manipulate. As I posted earlier, lynching an inactive is just silly. That includes Damdred. If he doesn't post by this time day 3, I'm fine with a lynch on him. Until then, we have no idea why he didn't come back and his disappearance says nothing to us about whether or not he's mafia. Of the people with votes right now, I would most prefer a lynch of Vivax. I could live with a Rels lynch. I'm also not comfortable with how heavily prplhz has been defending/sheeping Vivax all game (post 266, post 291, post 355). He said: On September 11 2018 05:20 prplhz wrote:
Generally I find some people who
1) Are good at finding scum
2) Are town
And then I sheep them. That's really how I do. I rarely do a lot of analysis because I'm really not very good at it. But I wrote a few points on you that I myself find to be something I would expect more from scum. So prplhz decided to latch onto Vivax? What exactly makes you (prplhz) think Vivax is town? What makes you think he's good at finding scum? I already thought he was town yesterday for pushing against the Kaley lynch with some decent arguments. I don't know if he's great at finding scum, I agree with him on Damdred and I find it more likely we'll lynch Damdred over you today. Which push against the Kaley lynch? Which arguments? The ones he later admitted were part of "a crappy feels-read?" Or maybe this one? On September 09 2018 01:16 Vivax wrote:On September 08 2018 23:06 Rels wrote:On September 08 2018 03:23 Vivax wrote:
I don't see how anyone could think that kaley is anything but a smurf. why ? Yea it isn't a smurf after reading through the profile. And it sure as hell isn't a she. I was sure it was a new acc just for this game, meh. I was wrong. But the rapping thing isn't something exclusive to this game. It's just his hobby. I don't want to vote him though. There's too many shitty votes on kaley floating about, some policy like rayn, some for weird analysis of the rap like from Qatol. And you for no reason. If that's the case, why are you pushing for what is effectively a policy lynch on damdred now? Note that Vivax called rayn's policy vote a "shitty vote" in the post I quoted. Yes, that one. I don't really know if I get your policy lynch point, but I don't think Damdred is a policy lynch.
Then please explain to me in simple terms the reasoning behind the damdred lynch. I get that he said he would be back and didn't come back. How does that make him mafia?
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EPT
