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On April 10 2017 05:39 Shapelog wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2017 04:13 beentheredonethat wrote: Then again, SL claimed doc more or less so I should add him to my town pile, too. That leaves - Koshi. Wow. Regarding the SL doc claim: keep in mind that Mafia can hold their shot. It might very well be that SL claimed doc although he simply held his shot. Actually no, thinking about that rn. That is a really dumb plan. He has no idea if a PR is in the game or not. He would also be the last scum. That means, 66% of the time, he gets cced and insta-loses. Unless he try and goat out a PR as a goon and saw no one bited and then held and claim. But that is just silly. If he does not know the setup, yes. If he does know the setup, it's a valid play which isn't bad.
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On April 10 2017 05:25 Shapelog wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2017 04:49 beentheredonethat wrote:On April 10 2017 04:22 Shapelog wrote:On April 10 2017 03:34 beentheredonethat wrote:On April 09 2017 22:53 Shapelog wrote:On April 09 2017 11:23 darthfoley wrote:On April 09 2017 11:17 Shapelog wrote:On April 09 2017 10:32 darthfoley wrote: Let's gooooo Also u going to answer me or not? What was the question? On April 09 2017 09:16 Shapelog wrote: Also what do you think about the SL part of the Rels post? That i made.
On April 09 2017 18:07 beentheredonethat wrote: Hi. voting shape seems to be the obvious thing. Worth a try but I am paranoid over Shape being town. There are some things in his filter that feel a lot like it and people might be tunneled.
We're down to one scum, so we have 7 town votes and 1 scum votes. That means that the scum vote isn't that relevant anymore.
I think Tumble might get too easy town credit. Yes I know that I give him town credit for the Calix/Tumble is unlikely stuff but it's not a full clear. Same goes for Rels, someone said that it would've been a big risk for scum!Rels to make the wagon 3-3 with a AFK Calix.
but then again, a Rels/Calix scumteam feels weird given the level of afk'ness that both have/had.
My main pain points on Shape are hedging and committing to the wrong wagon. But: he could've voted with Tumbe/Sicklucker as there was (imho) no way more people would pile on TW. I wasn't in thread and thread wasn't interested in Tumble.
Maybe it's just town paranoia. My top townreads do vote for shape. So while I'm still paranoid, it's okay I guess.
##vote Shapelog Seriously tho, Where are you actually with tumble and Rels? This post tells me nothing bc ironically ur wishy washing in it. Why is the afk scum team weird when you dont know the factors of it? It is pretty clear that I started to townread Tumble from my previous posts. It is pretty clear that I townread Rels for voting 4-2 instead of 3-3. Yes, it's not in the post you quoted. BUT it is in the posts I already made during the night. So - no, I am not wishy washy in it. A afk scum team would be weird because it's really hard to read into. I clearly express that I am okay with voting you, Shape, and I am content in following my top townreads. I am NOT being wishy washy because I ALSO say that I do have doubts about you being scum. Which is pretty normal. I don't know how you can say that I'm wishy washy there. Only way to do it is if you completely discard my posts during the night. Because your providing yourself a way to get out of those reads. I think Tumble might get too easy town credit. Yes I know that I give him town credit for the Calix/Tumble is unlikely stuff but it's not a full clear. Same goes for Rels, someone said that it would've been a big risk for scum!Rels to make the wagon 3-3 with a AFK Calix. Those reasoning on why you think they are town are also what you are saying giving them too much town credit. You admit this yourself in that post. Why do you want others to not look at your townreads as town, or now relook and give them less credit? It makes no sense if you really think they are town. Even with doubts about them, I don't see someone making a post where they state that the reason they are townreading shouldn't be giving that much credit. It's really alarming esp. to me bc Ik either you or Rels 90% of the time here is mafia. And here you are potentially setting up to ML them if your mafia. And lets say you are fine with me being lynched and do have doubts saying im scum.What I dont follow is the reasoning to keep posting things to show off your not certain. I get openly discussing in the thread ad that kinda of stuff, but the way you do it doesn't achieve anything from a townie mindset other than maybe convincing yourself I am scum...Which you SHOULD BE AT come to think if you think the rest of the people are town, like you just stated in your reply. For example you post this. Hi. voting shape seems to be the obvious thing. Worth a try but I am paranoid over Shape being town. There are some things in his filter that feel a lot like it and people might be tunneled.
[...]
My main pain points on Shape are hedging and committing to the wrong wagon. But: he could've voted with Tumbe/Sicklucker as there was (imho) no way more people would pile on TW. I wasn't in thread and thread wasn't interested in Tumble.
Maybe it's just town paranoia. My top townreads do vote for shape. So while I'm still paranoid, it's okay I guess. You have reasons to think im town, but your sticking with your townreads stance on me. I understand that. But saying your certain in your vote isn't true. You stated "it's okay i guess.", meaning not only do you doubt your read, but also your vote. Furthermore in the night, you stated you dont feel certain on it and had more reasons to think im town But overall, Shape's filter feels like he's active, asking questions, progressing the thread. He's sticking to asking Tumble stuff, he continuesly says he's fine with a Calix lynch, and overall keeps a calm town which isn't necessarily easy to have as town when you're faced with rayn, sicklucker and myself (esp. myself).
In general, kudos to Koshi and Shape and Rayn for calming me down instead of tilting me further.
I'm not sure about Shape at this point.
According to what you just said in your reply. There should be NO ONE ELSE to suspect as scum if you think that tumble is town, and rels is town, then me. Meaning, you should be on my ass with fire. Instead you "have doubts" Of course I get out of reads. Reads are subject to change over the course of the game. Everyone who says "this guy is 100% alignment x" and is always right is scum. You say: Those reasoning on why you think they are town are also what you are saying giving them too much town credit. You admit this yourself in that post. Why do you want others to not look at your townreads as town, or now relook and give them less credit? It makes no sense if you really think they are town. Because I might be wrong Oo. I want everyone to not sheep me but instead develop their own opinions. Especially in terms of town reads I am not supposed to make everyone my townreads their townreads. I'd do so if one of my townreads would be up for the lynch which is not the case. It's really alarming esp. to me bc Ik either you or Rels 90% of the time here is mafia. And here you are potentially setting up to ML them if your mafia. If it's either me or Rels, why did you absolutely not care about me or Rels previously? Why did you even vote with me? Why didn't you vote for Rels? And where do you get this very high probability from? And lets say you are fine with me being lynched and do have doubts saying im scum.What I dont follow is the reasoning to keep posting things to show off your not certain. I get openly discussing in the thread ad that kinda of stuff, but the way you do it doesn't achieve anything from a townie mindset other than maybe convincing yourself I am scum...Which you SHOULD BE AT come to think if you think the rest of the people are town, like you just stated in your reply. It's rather easy: my top scumread changed to a townread. I have not put in the work (freely admitting that) to re-read everyone, especially since I am fairly happy with you being lynched - I think the chance that you flip scum is at a decent 60-75%. I freely admit to not having original scumreads on my own right now - which might be scum indicative but to be frank I don't care too much what people think at this point. I mean what's wrong with voting with my top town reads, especially rayn, given that he was the main incentive in lynching Calix which turned out to be a good move? You have reasons to think im town, but your sticking with your townreads stance on me. I understand that. But saying your certain in your vote isn't true. You stated "it's okay i guess.", meaning not only do you doubt your read, but also your vote.
Furthermore in the night, you stated you dont feel certain on it and had more reasons to think im town Yeah, that's true. I'm not 100% sure you're scum, and if Calix had flipped town, I'm pretty sure I'd still be going for Tumblewood way over you. The things you have going for you are things like activity, things like "I have to flip sooner or later because I won't be able to clear myself anyways" which I fully understand (I have the same feeling about myself to be honest, if you don't flip scum, I expect a rather fast mislynch on me) I do not really know thought what you want to achieve with writing what you wrote there. According to what you just said in your reply. There should be NO ONE ELSE to suspect as scum if you think that tumble is town, and rels is town, then me. Meaning, you should be on my ass with fire. Instead you "have doubts" Yeah, I do. As you correctly wrote, if you're not scum, all I have left is technically Koshi, who's also townie to me (he voted Calix early, right?). But remember D1. I got blamed as "bad town" a subjective 10000 times. It's quite possible that I'm wrong on things. That makes me unsure. 1) Yes but its the timing of it and the way your doing it that is worrying me. And your doing it with easy targets if your mafia. That is my biggest issue with it. Mafia now has to plan out how the living hell to get 3 ML's and one Lylo (unless they are dumb and it gets blocked by SL again.) With who is alive rn, and who I currently suspect. I don't think any of the people with enough credibility (minus Darth maybe but see 3) ) to pull that off. So they cannot purely live based off that, so they must now start considering ways to make the rest of the sus. townies worse then them, while digging themselves out of "Shape is last mafia" read. 2) Your discrediting your own reasoning to see them as town tho. It be like saying "Ryan is town for what he did with calix etc." then saying "You shouldn't be putting that much stock into Ryan's interactions with calix." It doesn't make sense you posting to the thread the latter when your reads are first ""'s. 3) That came after the night result and SL claimed doc basically. You can check the post if you want to, but basically. I believe tumble is town based off calix. Koshi is town as well. SL I believe his claim, and prob. healed Ryan which confirms ryan. Even if he didn't, I still think ryan is town. I think darth is town, but not as much as everyone else just bc I lack enough to confirm him in my mind. Therefore, I am left with Rels or you being scum after the night flip. So I Highly believe scum is either between you two, with the off chance of it being darth (or maybe tumble if he doesn't do anything my day 3). 4) But then you posted what you did discrediting it imo. Which doesn't progress or help what you posted in the night at all with your reads. Touchee with the second paragraph 5) Bc i dont really believe your as ok with your vote as you made it out seem in your reply which strike me as odd. 6) Well i didn't know about you not fully rereading him. But still, I don't see you posting what you did if I am the only real sus person for you rn, even if you think you are wrong. If you have doubts, I would also suspect you if you thought that to start looking at other people again (which should of happen now in my mind since you were unsure earlier about me) Maybe this is just a POV and preference on the matter. I don't think we are going to get anywhere with this point in the long run. Show nested quote +On April 10 2017 04:53 beentheredonethat wrote:On April 10 2017 04:25 Shapelog wrote:On April 10 2017 04:12 beentheredonethat wrote:On April 10 2017 03:37 darthfoley wrote: @ Shape
Well yea the remaining scum in this situation has to keep options open and back doors available because of the D1 lynch and now the save in the night. This is one of the main reasons I don't like how btdt has approached the thread recently. Explain to me why so I also understand it, please. How am I keeping options open when I'm voting Shape and adding two people to my town pile? Tumble, Rels, you and Rayn are on my town pile. I'm okay with a Shape lynch because I see the reasons people are voting him and I agree with them. Of course there's noone defending Shape - everyone's hoping he'll flip scum and the one remaining scum is fine with a clear mislynch if Shape is town. Can you please not post those gifs but instead be constructive and try to explain? Or, not react at all like this? Tbh I think I have posted more content to shitpost ratio filled post this game then in like the last 3 games I have played. You have no idea how hard it is not to troll rn and claim scum as town.
Lemme try.
1) I don't know why the timing should worry you. I have adjusted my reads based upon a major event in the game: a flip. A scum player was confirmed. I have mostly tried to adjust my reads based on Calix flipping scum. And I have begun doing so during the Night phase, meaning at a time where there was no vote on you yet. What particular timing are you talking about?
2) I'm not discrediting my reasoning to see Rayn and darth as town. I have reached my own conclusion: "they voted Calix very early, especially rayn kept pushing Calix. They are probably town." You are misinterpreting what I said, especially since you ignore the fact that I was solely talking about myself and how people should see my townreads. I am pretty sure on Rayn and darth, I am not-so-sure about Tumble, SL and Rels, but I'm sure enough on them to lynch you.
3) Well okay, that's just fine. Pretty much my own conclusion, except I'm not 100% sold on the doc claim. The last scum is most likely between you, me, sicklucker/, (Rels, Tumble, Darth,) in that order, with the guys in brackets being townreads of mine. So basically we scumread each other for the same PoE reasons. Lol.
4) Not sure what to reply to this. I don't think I discredited my Tumble townread but even if I did, it might simply come from the fact that he's nowhere near locked town right now. If it's not shape, if it's not SL/Rels, then Tumble would be my next consideration. But I do realize that I'm judging a lot by gut feeling and am very close to guessing, so what I should do if Shape flips town is actually reading sicklucker without prejudice and re-reading Tumble and finally policy lynching Rels as he keeps not playing. regarding policy and Koshi: I'll just pretend he's town and ride or die. And brag post game about how shitty it is to go afk for 96 hours.
5) I'll put it like this: "I am okay with my vote on Shape but I am aware that I have not put in too much work." Basically right now, I am lazy town being okay with a Shape lynch as it clears a variable. Because still, what you do, is very hedgy and non-commital. If you flip town, I'll have to carefully reconsider what to do with sicklucker/Rels.
6) Yeah technically I should re-read others and try to find reasons to not lynch you. But then again, as I said, I think 60-75% is a good chance to not have to do that work. Finding the last scum will be hard anyway, it's really hit or miss as Calix chose to not really interact with people.
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On April 10 2017 06:03 darthfoley wrote: Even if he knew the setup and knew he could claim Doc, it doesn't make sense to do the "save" this early in the game because he has to die at some point Let me think about it.
N1: no shot, so the equivalent of one save. D2: no lynch on the claimed doc. N2: the doc is the most likely target. Sicklucker will be killed. OR N2: someone else dies.
And from that point on, it's pretty much ride or die. People will either mislynch the doctor at some point because he keeps being alive, or he will be killed rather late.
Either way he'll be dead which would make scum!sicklucker lose the game.
Okay, makes sense.
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That renders some bits of my answer to Shape obsolete, the sicklucker parts mainly.
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oh darth is actually voting me. okay.
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This is the final vote count. Four people voted outside of Calix.
me, Shapelog, sicklucker, Tumblewood.
Tumblewood should be town based on his early interaction with Calix. It's unlikely that scum acts like this on scum. sicklucker claimed doctor. Tumblewood is VT. Leaves Shapelog.
If it's not Shapelog, Rels should definitely be moved into scum range. sicklucker's claim holds, the townread on Tumble does, too, and I still have my role PM which says VT, so it should be me or Rels, which is exactly what Shape says.
That's a dilemma. But we do have enough mislynches to lynch all three of us, don't we.
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On April 10 2017 06:21 beentheredonethat wrote: Tumblewood should be town based on his early interaction with Calix. It's unlikely that scum acts like this on scum. sicklucker claimed doctor. beentheredonethat is VT. Leaves Shapelog. ....
EBWOP
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I feel like I have reached disformation levels of insecurity.
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Hm. Rayn's points on Rels makes sense, but so does the argument that Shape made (voting 4-2 town cred for Rels, voting 3-3 high risk vote).
Let's put Rels aside for a moment. I don't really think he's scum but I don't give him a town pass like I did last game. After all, Shape flipped town and Shape had a strong opinion on the last scum being between me and Rels. We should carefully look into why he said that.
But right now I'm back to Tumble. In the last four, I had Tumble/sicklucker/Shapelog, and the person who's most likely to flip scum after Shape being town is Tumble.
On April 10 2017 02:37 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2017 18:36 beentheredonethat wrote: I think Rels piling on Calix, making it 4v2, clears him. Rels voting Tumble, making it 3-3 with others voting outside of it, would've been scummy as fuck. This read also makes no sense. 1) Rels piling on Calix, making it 4v2, clears him. 2) Rels voting on Tumble to make it 3-3 would've been scummy as fuck 3) So Rels is cleared because he didn't do the clearly "scummy as fuck" option 4) What would Rels gain by doing the clearly "scummy as fuck" option, if he were scum? 5) Even if you believe Rels would try to pull off the "too scummy to be scum" mind game, why would him voting Calix "clear him?" I think it doesn't make sense to hammer your scum mate when you're the last man standing and playing from a very weak position anyways. I just can't see Rels coming in, bussing, and pissing off.
Tumble on the other hand has kept doing nothing. He was content on the Shape lynch (but then again, we all were). My main reason to clear him was the mindmeld argument, basically "scum wouldn't do that". Thinking about it a bit more, I can scum see do that, especially an active scum!Calix coordinating with a less inactive Tumble.
Best bet for me is Tumble right now.
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On April 11 2017 19:16 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 15:19 darthfoley wrote:On April 08 2017 05:18 Tumblewood wrote: have no qualms about lynching rels (shape)
have some qualms about lynching sl koshi (calix)
not lynching today df rayn btdt On April 09 2017 08:20 Tumblewood wrote:On April 09 2017 07:39 sicklucker wrote: Tumblewood raynpelikoneet koshi darthfoley beentheredonethat Rels Shapelog
something like that mostly paranoid of rels because hes second no my list as most likely mafia even tho its probably shapelog
yeah this is exactly where I am except sl is somewhere on the list. probably above btdt with like 1 letter colored green When did btdt go from "not lynching today" to being in the scummy side of your reads list, and why? Was it simply because he voted off the Calix wagon? yeah everyone on the calix wagon moved up when she flipped scum. and btdt looks even worse after that shitty i-don't-want-to-vote-shape-but-##vote:shapelog post. Except it was not a shitty i-don't-want-to-vote-shape-but-##vote:shapelog post. It's interesting how you discard everything besides the one sentence that makes me look bad, while doing nothing all game.
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Like, Tumble comes into the thread every now and leaves, leaves some half-assed pressure on seemingly random players, then gets out again. That's so bad or so mafia.
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Simply based on the voting, it's Tumble or Rels. And I think it's Tumble over Rels.
There are some ifs:
1. Koshi yolo bussed 2. darthfoley bussed into afk Calix (given df has a lame 4 page filter, that might even be the case) 3. Rayn yolo bussed
that make us instantly lose the game I think.
More ifs:
1. Rels is scum (he didn't play at all so... yeah) 2. Tumbleweed's mindmeld was staged 3. sicklucker fake claimed into a all vt setup
So basically: lynch Tumblewood. If town, carefully consider Rels/(sicklucker vs. darthfoley in a tinfoil world).
That's where I'm at. Given that Tumble continues to not have original thoughts and continues to drive-by post, I think it's the most likely scenario.
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If it's Koshi, we've lost the game already, just saying. And I will HEAVILY brag about him being absent and not being replaced. In case he lied about his absence and instead lurked, then it's a ballsy move and I'll drop some wpwp.
Nevertheless, I think Rels AND Koshi playing such a low activity mode is absolutely detrimental for town.
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On April 11 2017 19:16 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 15:19 darthfoley wrote:On April 08 2017 05:18 Tumblewood wrote: have no qualms about lynching rels (shape)
have some qualms about lynching sl koshi (calix)
not lynching today df rayn btdt On April 09 2017 08:20 Tumblewood wrote:On April 09 2017 07:39 sicklucker wrote: Tumblewood raynpelikoneet koshi darthfoley beentheredonethat Rels Shapelog
something like that mostly paranoid of rels because hes second no my list as most likely mafia even tho its probably shapelog
yeah this is exactly where I am except sl is somewhere on the list. probably above btdt with like 1 letter colored green When did btdt go from "not lynching today" to being in the scummy side of your reads list, and why? Was it simply because he voted off the Calix wagon? yeah everyone on the calix wagon moved up when she flipped scum. and btdt looks even worse after that shitty i-don't-want-to-vote-shape-but-##vote:shapelog post. Coming back to this, talking about the first part of your sentence: you're just repeating what Shape said (and what I said), only exchanging names. You're saying "scum is in the people who did not vote for Calix". Which is what everyone said before, some (including me) elaborated more on that, others didn't.
Only difference is that you moved me from "don't lynch" to "scum" while moving Rels to the town pile althoug he didn't do anything. Anything. At all.
On April 10 2017 06:59 Tumblewood wrote: although his filter leaves little to work with, I doubt rels is scum because he has put himself in a poor position to get someone else lynched after shapelog. I would expect scum!rels to scumread me and/or (pre-flip) sl so he'd have somewhere to go for the necessary 3 mislynches, and he still has not made 'preparations' in that respect How has Rels "put himself into a position" when the lynch was very clearly on Shapelog? There was no way to not have the lynch on Shape D2. And Rels continued not playing over the course of D2, so how do you imply any sort of activity here?
You're basically saying "Rels did nothing but I townread him now because Shape flipped and Rels had nothing to do with Shape flipping" and use this to finalize your scumread on me.
It just doesn't make sense.
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On April 11 2017 20:51 Koshi wrote: Eeuhm. I played super active and I was the catalysator of the Calix lynch. I identified she was mafia before you people had a clue, pushed her, and told you why she was mafia. Multiple times, over multiple pages.
The sucking up to rayn was legit.
I only didn't play at night & D2. And I was able to lurk there a bit because you guys were slow as fuck. But it doesn't matter, I was 100% ok with the Shape lynch.
It is not my job to make this game anymore. I already earned MVP for the Calix push D1. But due to having it already I will let you people fight for it. If you think I should be lynched... Sure thing. Townies literally cannot play better than I did in the first 42 hours I was in the game. So go lynch me and proof you are all worthless.
I gave you 1 mafia. Go find the second. If I am still in your PoE for some reason go find a head doctor. That's weird. Like, we're a team, and we want to win. If you get one scum, then stop doing things, and town loses, your not MVP, your LVP imho.
Also, a successful D1 push can come from a yolo bus, hence why I mention the if. I think it's highly unlikely though. Also I think it's pretty clear that I am only stating those ifs to be COMPLETE in what I do and to thoroughly explain the PoE process that I did. You're of course part of my PoE but not of the results .
So go lynch me and proof you are all worthless. Take that sentence and stick it up your arrogant ass, please.
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On April 11 2017 20:53 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 20:43 beentheredonethat wrote: Simply based on the voting, it's Tumble or Rels. And I think it's Tumble over Rels.
There are some ifs:
1. Koshi yolo bussed 2. darthfoley bussed into afk Calix (given df has a lame 4 page filter, that might even be the case) 3. Rayn yolo bussed
that make us instantly lose the game I think.
More ifs:
1. Rels is scum (he didn't play at all so... yeah) 2. Tumbleweed's mindmeld was staged 3. sicklucker fake claimed into a all vt setup
So basically: lynch Tumblewood. If town, carefully consider Rels/(sicklucker vs. darthfoley in a tinfoil world).
That's where I'm at. Given that Tumble continues to not have original thoughts and continues to drive-by post, I think it's the most likely scenario.
1.darth had some really townie posts 2..Koshi I think had some really townie posts mostly defending tumble 3. lul doctor save vote rels plz 1. Yes 2. Yes 3. Yes
Hence why I vote Tumble. I need better reasons than "vote rels plz" to vote Rels over my top scumread.
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okay, fine.
just remember that everyone was confident in Shape flipping scum and we wasted 48 hours on a lynch that brought us nothing. We're down to guessing right now because there's one scum left and we have almost no interactions from Calix, so all we have is voting.
That means we'll guess between (Shape), Rels, Tumble and me, given that sicklucker claimed doc. So you can pack your reads in a beautiful rose box which says "meta read" or whatever but I think Tumble looks the scummiest out of Rels and Tumble.
I'll vote Rels, okay, and I'll be glad if we win and I'll eat the "see, btdt, we were right and you were wrong" posts but I'm rather sure we're about to lynch another townie.
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On April 11 2017 21:07 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2017 17:10 sicklucker wrote: Sicklucker Tumbleweed calix koshi Darthfoley Rayn shapelog beentheredonethat rels
Show nested quote +On April 08 2017 11:06 sicklucker wrote: ya doctors saving ryan tonight for sure. so mafias gotta dodge. sure there might not be a doctor in the game but thats what mafia gambled on last time i was the doctor =] I dont know how obvious I could be. I really want post game troll points I have not and will not vote you, all I am saying is there is the possibility. I stressed it's tinfoil and so on.
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On April 12 2017 03:20 raynpelikoneet wrote: Like i am not saying it is impossible for Rels to be mafia. I am just way more certain that Tumble is mafia. The o ly thing i just want you all to realize is that btdt is not mafia. that's like 1:1 my stance on things
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No doctor kill, no doctor save, but kill was rayn?
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