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[M][N] Generic Mini Mafia - Page 171

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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AMG
Profile Joined March 2013
Australia298 Posts
March 30 2017 22:08 GMT
#3401
Its just been strange play all round from the scum team.

Im still not stupid enough to go against rayn... again.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 31 2017 04:11 GMT
#3402
Last will: ##Vote disformation

+ Show Spoiler +
If there's some dramatic change, then reconsider of course. So far disfo has only looked worse after Tumblr's flip though...!
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 31 2017 04:15 GMT
#3403
On March 31 2017 06:56 Damdred wrote:
I just don't get the play ya know? Tumble wasn't living the game out and koshi would have a better shot winning than disf.


I guess disfo's flip would have given us an additional mislynch though, and (semi)cleared Tumble.. It would have been very difficult for Koshi to survive from there.

Not to mention that rayn could have possibly just RB'd him, blocking his KP..

And it's always psychologically more difficult to play "alone" as scum IMO
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
AMG
Profile Joined March 2013
Australia298 Posts
March 31 2017 04:26 GMT
#3404
^ Sounds good to me
AMG
Profile Joined March 2013
Australia298 Posts
March 31 2017 04:29 GMT
#3405
On that, If it were koshi solo, it would have been a race to whomever would get their night actions in on the other.

If rayn got in first, theres no KP or RB, if koshi got in first, rayn dies and then we probably lynch him anyway.

Not really the ideal spot to be in.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 31 2017 09:03 GMT
#3406
It'd be bad for scum no matter what Koshi did really. Maybe that's why Koshi/disfo have been so quiet afterwards. Town disfo should have done something of merit to win for the town at least, but there's been nothing...
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 11:07 GMT
#3407
On March 31 2017 18:03 Xatalos wrote:
It'd be bad for scum no matter what Koshi did really. Maybe that's why Koshi/disfo have been so quiet afterwards. Town disfo should have done something of merit to win for the town at least, but there's been nothing...

pray tell what to do if at least 2 players are really adamant about lynching me regardless and i dont have the time to read a 18 page koshi filter.
oh btw should have mentioned this pregame, didnt expect the game to last this long, but my parents are visiting me this weekend.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 31 2017 12:20 GMT
#3408
If you are town, disfo, then please find the remaining scum. From my perspective you're the obvious choice, but if you actually are town, then you should be able to see a very different picture, and it could well make the difference between town win/loss.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
beentheredonethat
Profile Joined May 2016
2934 Posts
March 31 2017 14:48 GMT
#3409
Night 5 will end in (at Friday, Mar 31 9:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)).
"Micro tricks like marine splitting, blink stalker micro, and ling/baneling wars were the apex of the game’s achievements; nothing in the world takes your breath away like watching a pro player split marines like a god."
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 18:21 GMT
#3410
aight so koshi's filter on xata/damdy/amg

day 1:
easy/joking vote on damdy.
joke on xata.
wait his vote on damdy was not a joke?
On March 17 2017 08:24 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2017 08:18 DeepBlueSea89 wrote:
On March 17 2017 08:10 Calix wrote:
On March 17 2017 08:09 DeepBlueSea89 wrote:
On March 17 2017 08:06 Damdred wrote:
Ok so since dis going to go for a bit.

I think xata and cal are both town right now.

Deepblue is moving towards scummy territory with the fearless read of koshi being town for no real reason I guess?

Probable scum post.


Why?

It just seemed like an easy jump and the thought process felt shallow.

Here's how I see it:
1. Scum typically lurk (at least more often than not) and I've scumread people in the past who answer irrelevant fluff questions without participating in the major discussion in the thread at the time especially early on in the game.
2. Koshi asked me a question.
3. I ignore everything else (the discussion between Xatalos and Damdred for instance) and respond to that pretty much instantly.
4. This shows I was reading the thread and refreshing it fairly often even if I'm not commenting. That's more often than not something scum do although there were extenuating circumstances here.
5. Koshi picked up on it and asked why I was lurking. That showed me he was on the lookout for possible scum even outside the major thread of discussion. So, I think he's probably town. It's not solid but that's the best read I have this early on.
6. Damdred I think missed the subtext entirely. He just threw out a shallow read "oh, he's appeasing someone who engaged him so he could be scum." It's just an easy read on someone he thinks would be an easy target. He doesn't really wonder why I townread Koshi or even straight up ask me.

Why are you townreading Damdred?

Join us. Vote Damdred.

more pushing damdy.
switching to oneg. why?
switching to me.
explains later:
On March 18 2017 00:35 Koshi wrote:
@rayn. I am liking Damdred atm. This is a good post.
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2017 22:40 Damdred wrote:
I think mal posts are suspect and I think he ignored my post about who the scum were on dis and my wagons at the time having an easy time. Id put him in the scummy category.

Tumble is interesting I think, chides me for trying to form a town circle when that's exactly what I do early every game and I'm almost always right. I think it's just super weird way to go about it especially without explaining why I'm wrong on the vets I wanted to town read. Bottom of null for me.

As for your question xata, he just has no deviation from his story idk if I see scum doing it without trying to backtrack meh.

Also where did deep go, just kinda peace out once people stopped suspecting him and hasn't been back. Not saying lunch able just worrying.

parks vote on mal.


the early vote into push into randomly not voting could be for distancing purposes.
not that many on/of/about xata.


n1:
tr on xata.


d2:
town lean damdy.
explains:
On March 20 2017 09:21 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2017 08:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Can you quote all of those posts that made you change your mind on Damdred, before you left, from D1 Koshi?

From what I remember I know I thought he was potential mafia in the first hours. But then after bed I changed my view and thought it was more likely disformation was mafia over Damdred. I reread the game and Damdred his posts showed he was looking for answers while disformation just parried the assault. I think the following posts were all made after I went to bed and then later when I was awake. I also saw I somewhere told you I was liking Damdred and we had a discussion.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 17 2017 10:52 Damdred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2017 10:18 Malongo wrote:
On March 17 2017 10:06 darthfoley wrote:
Oh! Also don't like Malongo

I think we are in the same team tbh. You quote still sucks anyways.

My general read is pretty weak at this point. I don´t like how fast Damdred and disformation are piling up ealry. I would rather find a third way because we may be making mafia life too easy.

So I propose lynching Ryan. Not that I find him specially scummy but I don´t want to play with a troll for a second time.

##ryanpelikoneet

Everything else es just nonsense for me at this point.

Curious, by your admission you don't like how our wagons are going. It sort of implies that you think both wagons are town. Why? And who are the mafia on both wagons having the "easy" life?

On March 17 2017 09:59 Damdred wrote:
Xata started as a gut read from his first playful banter. He generally as scum is pretty tense non fluid and kinda lacks much in the way of anything. I felt he was the opposite at the start, he flowed with the game thread was involved and tried to understand players.

I thought he looked town tbh.

Calix is a dick (lovable ) as town and is more free with the town reads. As scum hedges and is more middle of the road. Here really I involved even early trying to ferret out people. I liked it early and liked thebdickishness that was displayed towards koshi trying to get him to play.

Also for the record I think disf probably going to be town. Seems legit confused atvpoints, has time to back pedal and just explain and would get pressure off him but doesn't do it and just moved straight ahead. I still would like some explanation from him but yeahbi don't think scum woulddd play to bring that much attention to himself without trying to be it of him before he leaves. (Sorts bad read by hownibfeel)

On March 17 2017 22:40 Damdred wrote:
I think mal posts are suspect and I think he ignored my post about who the scum were on dis and my wagons at the time having an easy time. Id put him in the scummy category.

Tumble is interesting I think, chides me for trying to form a town circle when that's exactly what I do early every game and I'm almost always right. I think it's just super weird way to go about it especially without explaining why I'm wrong on the vets I wanted to town read. Bottom of null for me.

As for your question xata, he just has no deviation from his story idk if I see scum doing it without trying to backtrack meh.

Also where did deep go, just kinda peace out once people stopped suspecting him and hasn't been back. Not saying lunch able just worrying.

On March 17 2017 22:55 Damdred wrote:
Maybe it's kind of meh.

So dis

Damdred
Calix
Xata
Koahi
Dis
Rayn
Deep

This is kinda a town list where I am at right now. Am I wrong on any of these and why?


On March 17 2017 23:55 Damdred wrote:
I had a post typed out to rayn but I decided to delete it as I have already answered parts of it to other people, the only part I will comment to is the deep part. I still have a townread on him, its just suspicious he shows up when hes talked about does a few things then when nobody talks about him he leaves. Its something to think about later but I don't think its anything near lynchable yet. As for deeps question to me, I think Rayns posts were interesting and to the point though you had to look through the rping. Hes clearly thinking about the game. Xata isn't hard to read if you pay attention to his past games TW. Also sorry about formatting typing this on ps4 and hard to do linebreaks.


On March 20 2017 09:46 Koshi wrote:
You are annoying me with this line of reasoning btw. It is very easy to see how I thought this game. And you are twisting it up so stupidly.

1) I thought Damdred was mafia. I thought you were possbile town.
2) I didn't think Damdred was mafia, more likely town even. I still thought you were town. (I vote malongo post)
3) I thought damdred was town. I thought you were town. (long time this game)
4) I thought damdred was town. I am seriously considering you for mafia (During night)

And during 4 I can use quotes from your filter that happened during 1-3. Otherwise nobody can ever change his opinion.

wtf is this post:
On March 20 2017 21:58 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2017 21:43 AMG wrote:
This is a shitty thought experiment because filters in isolation are only part of the story. This is a game of interaction. As such both of my reads on these players will involve another player. (the same player)

Eden is probably town.

disinformation is also probably town.


Lets discuss why.

On March 19 2017 10:34 Eden1892 wrote:
Why did we lynch Malongo? I guess it's "safe" but he was perfect null.

I voted Damdred because:
1. Calix wasn't a reasonable wagon and tbh I was starting to second guess myself anyway
2. I didn't see any compelling reason to vote Malongo. It's safe but fuck that, town doesn't win making safe plays unless the Mafia sucks.
3. Damdred still hasn't done anything that made me think he couldn't be Mafia. That's hypocritical compared to Malongo, except that I know I can expect more from Damdred and I can't know to do so from Malongo.
4. My vote for Damdred put the wagons at 5-3 which gave the Mafia a chance to save Malongo if he were scum; gave town a second wagon to consider, and I thought if the EOD were more active we'd get more meaningful info from that with a real 2nd option.

WITH THAT SAID, I apologize for not actually returning. I sorely underestimated my wireless carrier's range, Mississippi's infrastructure and the entertainment level of this wedding. I solemnly swear not to make any of those mistakes again, especially expecting positive outcomes from Mississippi's infratstructure. A truly egregious error to be certain


I've made this post before as town. He really wanted to lynch Calix, which is stupid, but he wants what he wants. That's not on the cards from what I gather up to page 22. So he justifies where he did leave his vote in the end, Damdred, as he believes that even his second choice for the day was a better option than where the lynch ended up going. Hes saying "right well you guys fucked up by not listening to me, and now that you've gone and dun fucked up, listen to me more in the future.... and kill who i want to kill". Looks like a townie who wants to flip his scum reads to me.


disinformation seems town for his early interactions with Calix. I can feel the emotion in his posts, his back and forth bickering seems genuine. He also seems reluctant to step off his scum read of Calix, even after both agree they're in OMGUS territory and are shitting up the thread. Its at this point that id expect a scum disinformation to commit whole hog to a fight with Calix and completely clog up the thread, but he does manage to back out of it and refocus elsewhere, while still maintaining his paranoia of Calix, but agreeing to lynch elsewhere for now.


I don't know why my brain takes so much value of this post but it does.... I am suddenly uncertain again

?
On March 20 2017 23:05 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2017 22:31 Xatalos wrote:
On March 20 2017 22:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On March 20 2017 22:27 Xatalos wrote:
On March 20 2017 22:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like the thing townies do when someone claims is:
- They consider all possibilities and look at the night kill and see what makes sense.

What Xatalos does:
- "At least this kill makes the all vanilla setup less likely."
- "I think there is a blue out there" (with onegu)
- "wow rayn didn't say who he jailed" (why the fuck would i, it doesn't help the town at all)
- "As scum, he would know the setup. If there is no true JK, he can claim being roleblocked and push his agenda freely until LYLO." (DOES ANYONE SEE ANY PROBLEM WITH THIS???)
- "Now this is an all vanilla setup and rayn claimed to idk what reason but it makes totes sense!!!"

Doesn't even try to figure out what it means if i am town. Never. Just "here is why he is scum" -> "no it doesn't make sense, well here is a new scenario why he is scum" -> "no it doesn't make sense... [contunue]" while thinking there is another power role out there!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

scummyscumscum


I haven't said I think there is a power role out there. Statistically it's more likely, but not certain.

I thought it was statistically 5% that i am a power role so i guess the rest of 95% is all vanilla setup no?


1) You had around 5% chance of rolling JK, 30% scum, and I would scumread you without the claim, so the chance of being scum isn't "extremely low".

2) I said there is a claim-like post in the thread. I didn't say I believed it was from a blue necessarily.

We discussed this yesterday... Those % don't make any sense for scum rayn. It's more liekly he is 95% jk and 5% scum and then scum is always in trouble which is unlikely after the ritoky kill.

The easy answer is always darthfoley/Eden/disformation and then a benched out of Onegu/AMG. And we should always lynch Eden/disformation first.

The scary team is TW/Onegu/AMG. Then we are fucked.

tr on xata gain.
On March 20 2017 23:09 Koshi wrote:
If Damdred and Xatalos are mafia this game I failed horrible but I don't believe it. They are just lock towns for me.

On March 20 2017 23:11 Koshi wrote:
Pffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff. I will reread a couple pages in Xatalos his filter and try to make a towncase. But not now.

huh?
On March 21 2017 00:13 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2017 23:38 AMG wrote:
On March 20 2017 23:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I mean like what about them you don't like.


He parks his vote on mal for being "suspect". Never elaborated on what that even meant. Does not even attempt to engage Mal in any questioning or conversation. Makes a case on why Eden might be better lynch, vote stays on mal, says he does not feel comfortable being on the same wagon as DR, yet never moved his vote off. Talks about how little resistance there is to mals lunch, does not get off it.

Chances that I am fucking horrible are increasing

On March 21 2017 00:25 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 21 2017 00:15 disformation wrote:
xata might take a bit.
On March 21 2017 00:13 Koshi wrote:
On March 20 2017 23:38 AMG wrote:
On March 20 2017 23:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I mean like what about them you don't like.


He parks his vote on mal for being "suspect". Never elaborated on what that even meant. Does not even attempt to engage Mal in any questioning or conversation. Makes a case on why Eden might be better lynch, vote stays on mal, says he does not feel comfortable being on the same wagon as DR, yet never moved his vote off. Talks about how little resistance there is to mals lunch, does not get off it.

Chances that I am fucking horrible are increasing

care to look on my stuff on damdy in comparison?

I believe Damdred is town. I believe Xatalos is town.
I believe that for the same reasons you think Damdred is town. I liked the quotes concerning Eden, makes it even more unlikely Damdred is mafia if Eden flips mafia. The emo posts I saw and are part of my townread on Damdred.

It's a good post. But not impossible to make as mafia.

On March 21 2017 23:10 Koshi wrote:
Ok. I am going to read random Xatalos pages.

which results in his super hard flip on xata.


dont think he would flip on xata as his partner like that. way more likely he tried to get xata ml over eden.
dont like the interaction with amg. they look rather weird to me.
the tr on damdy leaves me 50/50 ish.


n2:
nothring


d3:
starts to sr amg, but wants oneg dead over him.
votes damdred and says damdred/amg is the scum team.
eases up on damdy switches to amg.
huih?
On March 27 2017 20:47 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2017 20:40 disformation wrote:
didnt even realize xata was voting koshi.
like xata i get you are sheeping rayn, but rayn hasnt voted yet, so can you explain why koshi over me?

Because he is mafia.

the damdy thing clears up kinda easy and nice, like he might have known from qt:
On March 27 2017 21:02 Koshi wrote:
Tumble I also think is town because we were at the same place yesterday.
rayn is sadly confirmed but is having a meltdown. 100% Robin, never Batman.

Damdred is legit busy, but is only calling people town in the last 5 days. After the Eden lynch he hasn't called anybody mafia anymore. Go look at his filter.

Xatalos is passive as fuck. Just controlling the thread. Has been hoping rayn would say something else than AMG since the start of the day. Now that he did he jumps on me without even knowing why I am mafia. Just as long he can vote not AMG.

AMG is mafia and can die in a fire.

also note the distancing from xata.
more pushing on amg/damdy.


stay tuned for the epic conclusion in our next episode
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 18:27 GMT
#3411
aight so.
from koshis filter amg doesnt make a lot of sense. cause the hard push d4.
damdy would make some sense, since i dont feel his pushes were that sincere/dangerous of actually getting damdy into trouble. but damdy makes little sense with eden.
the thing is: outside of d2 i really dont like the interactions with xata.

ive seen koshi, hf and palmar pull some really really sick distancing play in a game. i think it is possible koshi did that d2 with xata. would explain the random flip. he could easily have pulled something would it haven gotten dangerous for xata. thread also wasnt very behind a xata lynch to begin with.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 18:28 GMT
#3412
i think i mushed together d3,n3 and d4 together earlier. sorry tired af.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 18:31 GMT
#3413
ooking at votes next.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 18:50 GMT
#3414
AMG (0): Tumblewood, disformation, Xatalos, Koshi
Damdred (0): Koshi
Koshi (0): AMG, Xatalos, disformation
disformation (3): raynpelikoneet, Xatalos, AMG, Koshi, Tumblewood
Tumblewood (4): Damdred, AMG, disformation, Koshi

this one is really difficult to tell since both wagons town. current situation was probably created by the wagons being this close.


Onegu (7): Xatalos, disformation, raynpelikoneet, Koshi, AMG, Tumblewood, Damdred
darthfoley (0): Koshi
Koshi (1): Onegu

Not voting (1): darthfoley

...


Damdred (3) - raynpelikoneet, Koshi, DeepBlueSea89, Eden1892
disformation (0) - Calix, Xatalos, Koshi
Raynpelikoneet (2) - Malongo, Tumblewood, Xatalos
Calix (0) - disformation, Eden1892
Onegu (0) - Koshi, Tumblewood
darthfoley (0) - disformation, Tumbleweed
Malongo (6) - darthfoley, Koshi, disformation, Calix, Damdred, Xatalos
Tumblewood (0) - Xatalos
Koshi (0) - Onegu
DeepBlueSea (1) - Onegu
Rels (1) - Rels

both eden and koshi being on damdy says damdy is town.
damdy and xata being super late on mal is bleh.


raynpelikoneet (0) xatalos, calix, koshi
eden1892 (6): damdred, disformation, raynpelikoneet ,koshi, onegu, xatalos, darthfoley, Calix, raynpelikoneet
disformation (1): Calix, darthfoley, xatalos, Tumblewood
AMG (0): Tumblewood
Koshi (0): Tumblewood
Xatalos (3): raynpelikoneet, AMG, Koshi, raynpelikoneet

Not voting (1): Eden1892
damdred: hardcore bus. very unlikely as discussed.
amg trying to get xata lynched over eden. not impossible. bit weird.
xata wanting me and switching to the bus, as ppl start to want me and get meh about me makes perfect sense as a pr.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 18:51 GMT
#3415
d2 votes indicate xata making perfect sense as scum.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 18:53 GMT
#3416
On April 01 2017 03:51 disformation wrote:
d2 votes indicate xata making perfect sense as scum.

xatalos wagon formed like 7h before deadline though.
would feel better about this if it happened early during the day.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 18:55 GMT
#3417
On April 01 2017 03:53 disformation wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 01 2017 03:51 disformation wrote:
d2 votes indicate xata making perfect sense as scum.

xatalos wagon formed like 7h before deadline though.
would feel better about this if it happened early during the day.

though it explains why koshi didnt try to get me killed. since they couldnt get good cred for the bus, they decided to get maximum distancing.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 18:59 GMT
#3418
fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuccccccccccccccccccccccccccccckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 19:00 GMT
#3419
wanted to check xatas filter for stuff on koshi

40 pages... wat
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 31 2017 19:11 GMT
#3420
first 10 pages like 0 on koshi. strongly implied town read. also not a lot interactions.
"real tr" on page 16.
On March 22 2017 02:47 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2017 02:40 darthfoley wrote:
On March 22 2017 02:38 Xatalos wrote:
Eden/AMG/rayn? Eden/Onegu/rayn? Eden/Onegu/AMG?

Maybe.

At least I think there are 2+ scum in those groups.


For the sake of the argument, say rayn is really the blue role he claims that has been not CC'd. Take him out of your equation. How do you feel about the other people in the game: TW, damdred, Koshi, disformation, Calix. Any pecking order currently of how you view these players?


Well here's a rough ranking of everyone right now:

Calix
Damdred
Koshi
Tumble
disfo
DF
Onegu
AMG
Eden

Very rough. Some spots would likely move a place or two with filter-diving.

You increased in rank with the helpful/clear-headed attitude in this situation. AMG and Onegu dropped a bit for staying on the sidelines and/or supporting my lynch to some extent.

Dunno about Koshi. He probably genuinely bought the case somehow, even if the change was shockingly radical.

3rd most tr person, but dunno about him?!
On March 22 2017 02:49 Xatalos wrote:
Koshi is my weakest real townread atm though. It left a slightly odd feeling how he went from sure town to sure scum in a matter of minutes, defending me from everything one moment and fully confident I'm scum the next.

read doesnt line up.
whole lot of nothing into:
On March 25 2017 07:56 Xatalos wrote:
I'm not even completely sure why I townread Koshi so hard earlier. I guess he could use another look.

Then again, he's been pretty active and engaged... Not really fitting the profile of our scumteam here...

we are on pg 29 already.
throws a distancing vote on koshi pg 33. i call it that because he didnt try to hard to get the lynch going. into:
On March 27 2017 22:18 Xatalos wrote:
Frankly I'd lynch Koshi or AMG over you today, disfo, since both of them went after me over Eden on D2 given the opportunity created by rayn - so I very much doubt they're both town - but I already promised myself to sheep rayn

very good thing to hind behind as scum.
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