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On August 24 2016 03:38 Half the Sky wrote:
Also Rels if you are town-siding here, you would know that you focus on securing the GB/Chez/prplhz lynches first by pushing them further into the furnace (I believe this should take two pushes?)
I mentioned this lynch mechanic you have to keep it simple otherwise we (town) can get burnt very easily, no pun intended.
Those two are too close to the edge they can pull themselves off danger as it stands.
EBWOP
Additionally, this is one of these games where we need to see some flips before finding the rest of the mafia.
(And yes, Trfel's filter was a steaming pile of shit, but I digress.)
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I am quite curious as to why Shapelog (as possible mafia) is being ignored.
We are running out of pushes but bringing Luna to safety over Shapelog (the latter ending up in row 6 and Luna taking his spot) would cost a push and a pull.
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Kitaman is reading my mind.
What in the actual fuck. 
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No one do anything. There is a moderator error.
On August 24 2016 02:54 Tumblewood wrote:
##push kitaman
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I have one pull left and I will be here at end of day.
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I don't like Luna hanging on the edge, and I'd really have preferred Shapelog in his place in case mafia were to try something but I understand we only have two reliable pushes remaining right?
Pulling Luna down now would also unfortunately expose us to mafia possibly pulling him off but IDK.
And all the shady people have their pushes left.
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##hold the Door
Scheisse, so many AFKs, this is not going to end well.
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EVERYONE PLEASE JUST HOLD THE DOOR
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Oh wow.
This is going to be an interesting ending...
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2 minutes.
Does anyone object if I pull Luna to row 14? I am paranoid about a lurking Chez.
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On August 24 2016 06:58 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Do not allow my sacrifice to be in vain. Remember that science is the answer to everything, it is theoretically impossible to break the speed of light, and that global warming is a bullshit liberal hoax.
I commend my ashes to the stars.
Yeah I have a bad feeling about this. :/
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Blame my paranoia.
##pull Lunaticman
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Do we actually have to type get to safety?
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And that's time, good luck.
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I am relieved you're back Koshi, because you're exactly what we need right now.
Bear with me, I am refreshing and condensing my posts in my answers here.
MZ, have at it, you should be able to follow my filter but any questions, let me know. I know I'll be reading and re-reading some filters as well with the new information in mind. I really have nothing to be afraid of.
My biggest issue with prplhz is when you look at his points it was him calling people mafia for reasons that not mean necessarily being mafia and not thinking through the viewpoints from which our reads were coming from, He focused on the what and not the why and tried to see/ask for the why. I didn't even need a case, even a single post from our filters as to why he genuinely thought we (Kita/Koshi/myself he didn't trust) were mafia, and reading his filter, his read origins didn't make sense on several people and I know I pointed that out somewhere. It would have at the very least made me more readable to me.
He kept saying we weren't nightkilled without any basis for additional points as to why we're scummy. I had to sit there and ask myself is he playing derpy town, and I felt at times he was running a form of thread disruption. You should be able to see that in my tone in the back and forth with him this past cycle.
sicklucker had a few negative points about him, One thing DI called out was his buddying up to me when Kita was putting pressure on me regarding the bananas earlier in the game.
I noticed that Damdred and others who were kind of just letting us cruise into a 0/3 evening will also have to be looked at more closely. Rels - however much his play up to this point did not advance town much here - is on point with that, I know Fecalfeast all did the same thing but I also want to backtrack to day 1. Of course, unless I'm forgetting something in his filter, besides pushing sicklucker, I'm not sure what he has done. I am worried we could/have been giving him a free pass.
Also Rels to be fair, Kitaman actually engaged a few people, if you think he's legit scum, you will have to backtrack and see his play with all the new information day 1.
Kurumi, I had a hard scum read on Chez, and given his post about "whom should I push and pull" I feared he was lurking and going to take someone down with him. Luna was on the edge, and I feared literally a 2359 push from him. Take that as you will.
TBF I will have to re-evaluate everyone in different worlds - we're down to what, 14 players, (likely) 4 mafia, and 2 third parties, one of which we know is anti-town.
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Shapelog was town too? Well FML. :/
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This is my last post I'm allowed. I don't know (or quite frankly, really care) what mechanics Caller games hold, but I'm not giving up. If nothing else but for post-game cred...
I'm glad disformation got to the same scum team I was able to work out although I kinda got to Kitaman and Stutters slightly different than you did. Damdred, similar where he tried to get people to shoot Trfel, but once I re-read his filter and his filter in context I was like ewwwwwww......
##Mafia: kitaman27/Stutters/Damdred/Trfel/+1
Also IAMP's third party claim is likely true for reasons I will get into later - IAMP was pushed by 3/4 so they are unlikely of the same alignment.
With the significant number of town flips, Trfel's filter goes from a steaming pile of shit to the realisation that be might have helped us get a little closer to the actual mafia.
I am in a world of a five player mafia team, 4 of which we need to sort out.
(Disformation, to answer your question - for m28, I would expect 5 mafia, once you hit 30, you could get away with six. 29-player JOAT had six.)
Thinking through potential agendas, I am also in a world where 1-2 are active enough yet just under the radar, there's 1 player who is near universally townread, and there's 1 lurker.
I want to walk everyone through Trfel's filter and explain a few things.
Trfel has been virtually pushing townies all game (as has Damdred/Kita, but I'll get to that later).
In his list post he also brings up a huge list of scummy people - keeping his options open.
Post 2276/2657
On August 20 2016 03:19 Trfel wrote:List of Suspicious PeopleTumblewood + Show Spoiler +Only focused on begging for money at the start of the game, and hasn't been doing anything since then. His activity and involvement have been greatly reduced at the same time that everyone is completely ignoring him. Artanis + Show Spoiler +http://puu.sh/m65Ss/2e73e123af.png
I forget how to actually make images appear, but whatever. The point is that much of the game is suspicious of Artanis, yet he has been barely caring at all, despite many people talking about actual reasons. He's just accepting it. Shapelog + Show Spoiler +I think he's very likely third party. He's been the most disinterested and uninvolved I've ever seen. I feel like he'd be more involved as both town and scum, since he's consistently shown that in the past. But his play feels purely reactionary and shows no motivation to actually do anything. GlowingBear + Show Spoiler +Vote manipulation in the election, and then choosing chaos. Then posted a bunch of useless info from random QTs. Feels like he used his NSA powers to try and compensate for his earlier actions without actually contributing. sicklucker + Show Spoiler +First he was defending Artanis, then attacking Artanis, then to the point of saying that if sicklucker dies, it means that Artanis is mafia and killed him, then defending Artanis again? And yet still using what he thought was (seemingly) a cop check on him?!?!!? All with zero reasoning the entire time... Chezinu + Show Spoiler +107% of the vote, and over Superbia. With zero explanation, zero scumhunting, zero involving the town.
On August 21 2016 03:16 Trfel wrote:
New List of Suspicious People
Tumblewood
Artanis
Skynx
Shapelog
GlowingBear
iamperfection
sicklucker
Chezinu
Can discuss reasons if necessary. Mostly the same as my previous list. Skynx added due to the QT, iamperfection added because of uninvolvement and claiming a notification. Reminds of of ritoky's play in Carol of the Bells where claiming a notification confirmed him as mafia.
Need to head out for a bit. Need to think about this Artanis lynch, the QT seems really condemning but his protesting feels much more like town!Artanis than mafia.
In a game with likely five mafia, Trfel has way more than this. This tells me he's keeping his options open to see where the wind blows.
And as I've said correctly before (spoiler)
+ Show Spoiler +On August 17 2016 21:08 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2016 16:18 Trfel wrote:Is anyone awake still?  Still trying to make sense of Onegu and Artanis... While Onegu's actions and specific claims seem very scummy, his play is marked by so much not caring, and Onegu tends to take his scum play relatively seriously. On the other hand, third party feels very likely.
I liked Artanis after skim reading, but then realized that he actually hasn't been doing anything. It feels like he's just trying to seem active and present but he hasn't felt invested at all. In addition to being so secretive about (seemingly) taking control of Superbia's body... I definitely support killing Onegu with the FOX News thing. Maybe Shapelog would also qualify as anti-American... Trfel is someone that I know spins behaviour to be mafia when he is exclusively mafia. (1) Artanis had not been hiding the DGAF attitude so he didn't care that he was getting scumread for it, which is actually a towny trait (2) The so called bounty hunter role (or the action of controlling someone's body) is a mechanic that (knowing Palmar) could be assigned to either alignment (3) Onegu will "not care" what others think as town or scum (the latter example: see Outlaw). So I really don't like that post either. On August 17 2016 23:42 Half the Sky wrote:
This is where I am:
Not entirely sure/will need to be sussed out a bit more:
GlowingBear (some townie thought towards the end, though I am deliberately ignoring mechs here, some similar reads to mine)
Dandel Ion (meh)
Lunaticman (need to really see actual reads and not just surviving on mech discussion)
Grackaroni (originally was good but not remembering too many impactful posts from him more recently, falling under the radar?)
MZ (some of his reads I liked but more content would make me more confident on him)
The "dear vig, please take out the trash" pile:
Rels (pending catching up)
Stutters695
Kurumi
Shapelog
Fecalfeast
Possible scum
Trfel (it's somewhere in my filter)
sicklucker (where are the reads)
Chezinu (all he does is go on about his position, someone please shoot him, clearly he's not helping town even compared to Star Wars where you got some semblance he was trying to)
Scum reads
prplhz
Onegu (I make no distinction between anti-town third parties and scum)
IAP
I would say that vigis should target the bottom six players.
Trfel's mafia meta is taking things and spinning them to be mafia.
Finally Trfel (ref: Fullmetal Mafia is my most recent recollection) consistently keeps teammates out of the spotlight.
Trfel doesn't touch on Damdred or Rels at all. (Or Kurumi or Stutters695 or Fecalfeast) He brings up IAMP for uninvolvement....and fails to do the same for certain others.
(Note: Yes we brought up both the notifications but I want to focus on the "uninvolvement" part because it points to a double standard.)
Trfel also scumreads sicklucker for something sicklucker will do as both alignments. This makes me think there's a decent chance sicklucker might actually be town.
A similar pattern with Tumblewood, who I was townreading for independent reasons:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 21 2016 05:06 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2016 05:04 Half the Sky wrote:
Trfel elaborate in 1-2 sentences your issue with Tumblewood. His involvement is purely self-seeking, and not town seeking. Initially, he was only involved to get money for his secondary win condition. Now, he's completely uninvolved (after presumably receiving money and not being suspected).
Again the MO of spinning something for something that doesn't make someone mafia.
Here's another thought: The fact that Trfel lists IAMP on this list does actually support that Trfel and IAMP aren't same alignment and that IAMP really is likely to be third party. Rels on the other hand had done zero up to that point and yet isn't mentioned here. Something to consider.
I have independent reasons to townread Kurumi so I will leave him out.
Contrast Trfel's approach with Artanis' (example)
+ Show Spoiler +On August 17 2016 20:26 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
People that may be carpet bombed for afkness
Stutters695
Rels
Shapelog
Fecalfeast
sicklucker
Kurumi
Trfel?
People that may be carpet bombed because they stink of mafia
Onegu
prplhz
sicklucker
iamperfection
People that are in both lists
sicklucker
Preferred target acquired.
I was looking at both these people and Kita and Damdred and you can see similarities in how Trfel, Kita and Damdred try and push similar scummy townies but then leave out others. But I'll get to the other two later.
There are other "little things" that add up to a mafia Kita (NK WIFOM via Vivax, suggesting to lynch Trfel once it was known Trfel would die, with all the scummy townies we had this game, he had a very clean game, which is mafia meta similar to Peraonality 2) but goddamn this is my last post.
This is how Kita rolls. (And I'll explain a bit more...)
+ Show Spoiler +On August 17 2016 11:13 kitaman27 wrote:
Haven't bothered with filter dives yet, but aside from maybe 1 afk straggler, the mafias are in here.
Onegu
prplhz
Artanis[Xp]
Lunaticman - current town read
Dandel Ion
Shapelog
GlowingBear
iamperfection
sicklucker
Meapak_Ziphh - also a town read
Chezinu
I'll see if I can narrow this down a bit more and come up with a top 3 or something. On August 17 2016 23:53 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2016 23:42 Half the Sky wrote:
This is where I am:
Not entirely sure/will need to be sussed out a bit more:
GlowingBear (some townie thought towards the end, though I am deliberately ignoring mechs here, some similar reads to mine)
Dandel Ion (meh)
Lunaticman (need to really see actual reads and not just surviving on mech discussion)
Grackaroni (originally was good but not remembering too many impactful posts from him more recently, falling under the radar?)
MZ (some of his reads I liked but more content would make me more confident on him)
The "dear vig, please take out the trash" pile:
Rels (pending catching up)
Stutters695
Kurumi
Shapelog
Fecalfeast
Possible scum
Trfel (it's somewhere in my filter)
sicklucker (where are the reads)
Chezinu (all he does is go on about his position, someone please shoot him, clearly he's not helping town even compared to Star Wars where you got some semblance he was trying to)
Scum reads
prplhz
Onegu (I make no distinction between anti-town third parties and scum)
IAP I would move GB and Luna down to one of the lower tiers and suggest the vig's focus on the scum reads, while using investigative roles on the trash pile, but this is a solid list overall. Pay attention to that above quote - I have Trfel/Rels (???)/Stutters in my third and fourth categories and kita wants the vigis to shoot GB/Luna and the three scum reads I have (prplhz/Onegu/IAMP).
TLDR: Trfel's method of leaving his options open, keeping scum teammates out of the limelight (consistent with mafia meta) and spinning mafia-indicative reasoning make it fairly likely that sicklucker is town here. Similarly, Damdred, Rels, Stutters, Kurumi have an additional point for scrutiny on that end.
Stutters being left out by both him and Kita and Kita not wanting to burn 99% Stutters, makes me think he's it.
But Trfel approach is also similar to how Kitaman has proceeded this game.
(I think Fecalfeast is town and apparently Koshi had information that cleared him as town, he does not have a readily defined meta as he's been lazy as both alignments. I will still re-read his filter for context as I narrow things down. The same thing goes for Kurumi at this point.)
Bah, I wanted to post more but I will elaborate on everything next cycle if I'm still around.
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##vote Damdred
Will vote him or Kitaman, lemme make my last post a bit more readable before I'm out. Damned post restriction
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Trfel's fitler and what it shows
With the significant number of town flips, Trfel's filter goes from a steaming pile of shit to the realisation that be might have helped us get a little closer to the actual mafia.
I am in a world of a five player mafia team, 4 of which we need to sort out.
(Disformation, to answer your question - for m28, I would expect 5 mafia, once you hit 30, you could get away with six. 29-player JOAT had six.)
Thinking through potential agendas, I am also in a world where 1-2 are active enough yet just under the radar, there's 1 player who is near universally townread, and there's 1 lurker.
I want to walk everyone through Trfel's filter and explain a few things.
Trfel has been virtually pushing townies all game and generally does when he's mafia. Slight wifom disclaimer as he was close to dying when trying to put out his last set of reads but the vast majority of those had flipped town and I have a town read on Tumblewood.
In his list post he also brings up a huge list of scummy people - keeping his options open.
Post 2276/2657
On August 20 2016 03:19 Trfel wrote:List of Suspicious PeopleTumblewood + Show Spoiler +Only focused on begging for money at the start of the game, and hasn't been doing anything since then. His activity and involvement have been greatly reduced at the same time that everyone is completely ignoring him. Artanis + Show Spoiler +http://puu.sh/m65Ss/2e73e123af.png
I forget how to actually make images appear, but whatever. The point is that much of the game is suspicious of Artanis, yet he has been barely caring at all, despite many people talking about actual reasons. He's just accepting it. Shapelog + Show Spoiler +I think he's very likely third party. He's been the most disinterested and uninvolved I've ever seen. I feel like he'd be more involved as both town and scum, since he's consistently shown that in the past. But his play feels purely reactionary and shows no motivation to actually do anything. GlowingBear + Show Spoiler +Vote manipulation in the election, and then choosing chaos. Then posted a bunch of useless info from random QTs. Feels like he used his NSA powers to try and compensate for his earlier actions without actually contributing. sicklucker + Show Spoiler +First he was defending Artanis, then attacking Artanis, then to the point of saying that if sicklucker dies, it means that Artanis is mafia and killed him, then defending Artanis again? And yet still using what he thought was (seemingly) a cop check on him?!?!!? All with zero reasoning the entire time... Chezinu + Show Spoiler +107% of the vote, and over Superbia. With zero explanation, zero scumhunting, zero involving the town.
On August 21 2016 03:16 Trfel wrote:
New List of Suspicious People
Tumblewood
Artanis
Skynx
Shapelog
GlowingBear
iamperfection
sicklucker
Chezinu
Can discuss reasons if necessary. Mostly the same as my previous list. Skynx added due to the QT, iamperfection added because of uninvolvement and claiming a notification. Reminds of of ritoky's play in Carol of the Bells where claiming a notification confirmed him as mafia.
Need to head out for a bit. Need to think about this Artanis lynch, the QT seems really condemning but his protesting feels much more like town!Artanis than mafia.
In a game with likely five mafia, Trfel has way more than this. This tells me he's keeping his options open to see where the wind blows.
And as I've said correctly before (spoiler)
+ Show Spoiler +On August 17 2016 21:08 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2016 16:18 Trfel wrote:Is anyone awake still? Still trying to make sense of Onegu and Artanis... While Onegu's actions and specific claims seem very scummy, his play is marked by so much not caring, and Onegu tends to take his scum play relatively seriously. On the other hand, third party feels very likely.
I liked Artanis after skim reading, but then realized that he actually hasn't been doing anything. It feels like he's just trying to seem active and present but he hasn't felt invested at all. In addition to being so secretive about (seemingly) taking control of Superbia's body... I definitely support killing Onegu with the FOX News thing. Maybe Shapelog would also qualify as anti-American... Trfel is someone that I know spins behaviour to be mafia when he is exclusively mafia. (1) Artanis had not been hiding the DGAF attitude so he didn't care that he was getting scumread for it, which is actually a towny trait (2) The so called bounty hunter role (or the action of controlling someone's body) is a mechanic that (knowing Palmar) could be assigned to either alignment (3) Onegu will "not care" what others think as town or scum (the latter example: see Outlaw). So I really don't like that post either. On August 17 2016 23:42 Half the Sky wrote:
This is where I am:
Not entirely sure/will need to be sussed out a bit more:
GlowingBear (some townie thought towards the end, though I am deliberately ignoring mechs here, some similar reads to mine)
Dandel Ion (meh)
Lunaticman (need to really see actual reads and not just surviving on mech discussion)
Grackaroni (originally was good but not remembering too many impactful posts from him more recently, falling under the radar?)
MZ (some of his reads I liked but more content would make me more confident on him)
The "dear vig, please take out the trash" pile:
Rels (pending catching up)
Stutters695
Kurumi
Shapelog
Fecalfeast
Possible scum
Trfel (it's somewhere in my filter)
sicklucker (where are the reads)
Chezinu (all he does is go on about his position, someone please shoot him, clearly he's not helping town even compared to Star Wars where you got some semblance he was trying to)
Scum reads
prplhz
Onegu (I make no distinction between anti-town third parties and scum)
IAP
I would say that vigis should target the bottom six players.
Trfel's mafia meta is taking things and spinning them to be mafia.
Finally Trfel (ref: Fullmetal Mafia is my most recent recollection) consistently keeps teammates out of the spotlight.
Trfel doesn't touch on Damdred or Rels at all, or Kurumi, Stutters, or Fecalfeast.
He brings up IAMP for uninvolvement....and fails to do the same for certain others.
(Note: Yes we brought up both the notifications but I want to focus on the "uninvolvement" part because it points to a double standard.)
Trfel also scumreads sicklucker for something sicklucker will do as both alignments. This makes me think there's a decent chance sicklucker might actually be town.
A similar pattern with Tumblewood, who I was townreading for independent reasons:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 21 2016 05:06 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2016 05:04 Half the Sky wrote:
Trfel elaborate in 1-2 sentences your issue with Tumblewood. His involvement is purely self-seeking, and not town seeking. Initially, he was only involved to get money for his secondary win condition. Now, he's completely uninvolved (after presumably receiving money and not being suspected).
Again the MO of spinning something for something that doesn't make someone mafia.
Here's another thought: The fact that Trfel lists IAMP on this list does actually support that Trfel and IAMP aren't same alignment and that IAMP really is likely to be third party. Rels on the other hand had done zero up to that point and yet isn't mentioned here. Something to consider.
I have independent reasons to townread Kurumi so I will leave him out from the association list for now.
Contrast Trfel's approach with Artanis' (example)
+ Show Spoiler +On August 17 2016 20:26 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
People that may be carpet bombed for afkness
Stutters695
Rels
Shapelog
Fecalfeast
sicklucker
Kurumi
Trfel?
People that may be carpet bombed because they stink of mafia
Onegu
prplhz
sicklucker
iamperfection
People that are in both lists
sicklucker
Preferred target acquired.
Artanis takes all the scummy looking people at that point (Damdred was decent Day 1 and disjoined reads he's had as town so I figured he was okay) and doesn't ignore anyone.
TLDR: Trfel's read formation indicates that sicklucker is more likely to be town, same for Tumble, and less likely so for Stutters/Rels/Damdred/Fecalfeast/Kurumi, on that point alone.
+ Show Spoiler +(sicklucker is more likely to be town as well esp when combined with the agendas of the others, but that is more associative at this time, until there's an additional flip.)
Why did Trfel pay attention to those he did and not some of the others? It's a double standard.
Now are all those people mafia? Probably not.
I was independently townreading TW, and Kurumi could be town. Fecalfeast has been lazy as both alignments and Stutters is low volume as both alignments.
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EPT
