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TL Mafia LXXIV: Storm Mafia 3 - Page 45

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Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
March 24 2016 23:00 GMT
#881
JAT, what do you think of the people pushing on gumshoe pre-slam-shot. Scum in there?
Minimal effort.
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
March 24 2016 23:01 GMT
#882
On the plus side the pool for the lynch today is still kinda small.

JAT what do you think of rels?
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 24 2016 23:03 GMT
#883
Superbia you wanted to talk?
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16324 Posts
March 24 2016 23:04 GMT
#884
On March 25 2016 08:00 Superbia wrote:
JAT, what do you think of the people pushing on gumshoe pre-slam-shot. Scum in there?

Possible. I don't think there is something inherently wrong with pushing gumshoe early though. His first post WAS really bad. I wouldn't scumread anyone only for this.
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16324 Posts
March 24 2016 23:04 GMT
#885
On March 25 2016 08:01 Damdred wrote:
On the plus side the pool for the lynch today is still kinda small.

JAT what do you think of rels?

I am always careful about rels. But he made some good observations so far so I wouldn't lynch him today.
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 23:05 GMT
#886
On March 25 2016 07:59 justanothertownie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 07:57 Shapelog wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:33 Kurumi wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:26 ritoky wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:24 Kurumi wrote:
Wait why 8?


cuz i picked a random fucking large number


Is it really that huge? 21 players total. 4 probably Mafia. 17 players left. 8 players believe that they are Town. You still have 9 Townies not sharing that sentiment. That's excluding possible 3rd party shenanigans and different Mafia size (I could see it being 5 even). It does not seem that huge. Because it is 8 players analysing 13 players, you are much more likely to down or out a blue. This would probably result in last minute switch shenanigans and disorder. This would lead to Mafia having even more information. In that 8, you could have three Mafia who figured out that it is a good idea to get on that Ford Wave and now you have 5 townies believing strongly that 3 players are Townie, but are actually Mafia. Mafia creates lynch after lynch, blue blood is the last sight of the day, blue blood is the first sight of the day and since this setup is about being careful, I don't see it being good.

Wait hold on. I am going to use this 8 logic here because i am confused now.
+ Show Spoiler +
So Best case would turn it into 8 v 13 right? Let say about 5 roles are 3rd party/mafia So 8 v 8 v 5.....
Mafia would have some kinda of KP so they would shot into the 8 vt;s or whatever, let say 3rd is a kill role.
So each night 2 of the confirm townies die, or they shot into the suspect pool.
The 8 blue roles would then check eachother/use their power on the other people (assuming they have a power). Well, Instantly, a tracker/watcher would be fuck over because any person they check would go somewhere. The only way to get a good track is to track to a death. All the other ones are useless because they can't determine anything. They only have a 2/25 chance (N1) of catching scum. And they can still be vig technically.

But lets say it was 10 or something 10 v 11 -> 10 vs 6 vs 5, Blue roles have to cover less people. But that is still 10 other people a invest blue role has to either check or track. Not to mention that any of the 10 vt's could be shot theoretically (scum/3rd party killer would pick high value targets) And this is not meationing if the roles are not trackable or watchable.

Then Physiologically, some invest blue roles might check the vt to make sure they are vt's. thus wasting a check.

I guess the protection and vet roles would be fine/in a better spot.

idk about what would happen if you than make everyone out of the circle claim.

Eh it not that great when i look at it like this.

Are you 2 seriously arguing over the completely irrelevant math of a number ritoky obviously just made up to prove his point? Wtf.



ROFL
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
March 24 2016 23:05 GMT
#887
Yeah. Picture someone pretty damn tired sitting behind a computer going to sleep in the next x0 minutes. That's me. I really don't want to read through posts so I'm going to play from the top of my head (that's what I generally like to do either way).

Now let's revisit the gumshoe thing, all right? I had like this nice timeline but it's whatever.

Do you think there was scum pushing on gumshoe in hindsight? Before slam shot?
Minimal effort.
Kurumi
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Poland6130 Posts
March 24 2016 23:06 GMT
#888
On March 25 2016 07:59 justanothertownie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 07:57 Shapelog wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:33 Kurumi wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:26 ritoky wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:24 Kurumi wrote:
Wait why 8?


cuz i picked a random fucking large number


Is it really that huge? 21 players total. 4 probably Mafia. 17 players left. 8 players believe that they are Town. You still have 9 Townies not sharing that sentiment. That's excluding possible 3rd party shenanigans and different Mafia size (I could see it being 5 even). It does not seem that huge. Because it is 8 players analysing 13 players, you are much more likely to down or out a blue. This would probably result in last minute switch shenanigans and disorder. This would lead to Mafia having even more information. In that 8, you could have three Mafia who figured out that it is a good idea to get on that Ford Wave and now you have 5 townies believing strongly that 3 players are Townie, but are actually Mafia. Mafia creates lynch after lynch, blue blood is the last sight of the day, blue blood is the first sight of the day and since this setup is about being careful, I don't see it being good.

Wait hold on. I am going to use this 8 logic here because i am confused now.
+ Show Spoiler +
So Best case would turn it into 8 v 13 right? Let say about 5 roles are 3rd party/mafia So 8 v 8 v 5.....
Mafia would have some kinda of KP so they would shot into the 8 vt;s or whatever, let say 3rd is a kill role.
So each night 2 of the confirm townies die, or they shot into the suspect pool.
The 8 blue roles would then check eachother/use their power on the other people (assuming they have a power). Well, Instantly, a tracker/watcher would be fuck over because any person they check would go somewhere. The only way to get a good track is to track to a death. All the other ones are useless because they can't determine anything. They only have a 2/25 chance (N1) of catching scum. And they can still be vig technically.

But lets say it was 10 or something 10 v 11 -> 10 vs 6 vs 5, Blue roles have to cover less people. But that is still 10 other people a invest blue role has to either check or track. Not to mention that any of the 10 vt's could be shot theoretically (scum/3rd party killer would pick high value targets) And this is not meationing if the roles are not trackable or watchable.

Then Physiologically, some invest blue roles might check the vt to make sure they are vt's. thus wasting a check.

I guess the protection and vet roles would be fine/in a better spot.

idk about what would happen if you than make everyone out of the circle claim.

Eh it not that great when i look at it like this.

Are you 2 seriously arguing over the completely irrelevant math of a number ritoky obviously just made up to prove his point? Wtf.


I only made one post on this, no idea why Shape brought it up, the thing that stroke me the most was that ritoky thought 8 players is huge, while it is not. BTW JAT, there is one thing I like about sandroba lynch: past experience with scum in Storm 1. RebirthOfLegend went MIA, I believe on Day 2, because we thought he'd be modkilled on the basis of lack of activity, but more seriously because of playing against wincon of either side, we lynched someone else. He lived on, even posted very fast after the lynch happened. He was the Mafia Poisoner. There is a world where sandroba is a red role and just wants to survive the D1, but I think sandroba has enough time to prove us wrong if he chooses to pop into the thread in like, even 12 hours.
I won't support the sandy lynch right now, I just wanted to say that there was a play concerning "afk" mafia in the first Storm Mafia and because of lack of activity requirements we need to keep an eye on that.
I work alone. // Visit TL Mafia subforum!
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5188 Posts
March 24 2016 23:07 GMT
#889
On March 25 2016 07:50 Kurumi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 07:29 Shapelog wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

[image loading]

Damm i pick like the worse time to leave. Can someone tell me why the plan was bad? I thought the execution could of been better but i liked the concept.


Jesus I've been leaving you and your "Kurumi is X." Some posts later "Kurumi is Y." later: "Hey Dude, do you think Kurumi is more of a X or more of a Z?", are you able to make your goddamn mind about anything without the help of others? It feels like you are trying the ground everytime you do post a read. You feel very insecure and for a person with such contrary opinion to the current state of the thread your defense of ritoky is very weak. What is good about the concept? You agree that execution was bad, but why and why would it point to ritoky Town?

IIRC i didn't do the bolded. Tube questioned me about it and i said i would look back at your posts.

I thought the concept was good because it would theoretically make a good town circle if it worked. I didn't take into the account of what happens to the blue roles and how it would play out (I should of).

I think rik is town because he tried to make a play that would help town in his opinion. Why would scum put that much attention on themselves? to snag some blue roles? I admit the excuation was awful because of Calling Damdred blue/scum, thus giving away any benefits it might have.

Also if it was a mafia play, i think it would of been thought out more and he wouldn't out it. I feel like he hasn't really plan for a response to this mess, which would make since if he is town.

"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
March 24 2016 23:08 GMT
#890
All right, now that I have both your attention I want to continue the train of thought.

Everyone kind of agrees that gumshoe's post was somewhat scummy, and that it was an easy scum-push regardless of alignment. So I'm inclined to believe that -a- scum would pile on the push. Agreed?
Minimal effort.
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 24 2016 23:08 GMT
#891
On March 25 2016 08:05 Superbia wrote:
Yeah. Picture someone pretty damn tired sitting behind a computer going to sleep in the next x0 minutes. That's me. I really don't want to read through posts so I'm going to play from the top of my head (that's what I generally like to do either way).

Now let's revisit the gumshoe thing, all right? I had like this nice timeline but it's whatever.

Do you think there was scum pushing on gumshoe in hindsight? Before slam shot?

Not exactly but there is a chance for that.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5188 Posts
March 24 2016 23:09 GMT
#892
On March 25 2016 07:59 justanothertownie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 07:57 Shapelog wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:33 Kurumi wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:26 ritoky wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:24 Kurumi wrote:
Wait why 8?


cuz i picked a random fucking large number


Is it really that huge? 21 players total. 4 probably Mafia. 17 players left. 8 players believe that they are Town. You still have 9 Townies not sharing that sentiment. That's excluding possible 3rd party shenanigans and different Mafia size (I could see it being 5 even). It does not seem that huge. Because it is 8 players analysing 13 players, you are much more likely to down or out a blue. This would probably result in last minute switch shenanigans and disorder. This would lead to Mafia having even more information. In that 8, you could have three Mafia who figured out that it is a good idea to get on that Ford Wave and now you have 5 townies believing strongly that 3 players are Townie, but are actually Mafia. Mafia creates lynch after lynch, blue blood is the last sight of the day, blue blood is the first sight of the day and since this setup is about being careful, I don't see it being good.

Wait hold on. I am going to use this 8 logic here because i am confused now.
+ Show Spoiler +
So Best case would turn it into 8 v 13 right? Let say about 5 roles are 3rd party/mafia So 8 v 8 v 5.....
Mafia would have some kinda of KP so they would shot into the 8 vt;s or whatever, let say 3rd is a kill role.
So each night 2 of the confirm townies die, or they shot into the suspect pool.
The 8 blue roles would then check eachother/use their power on the other people (assuming they have a power). Well, Instantly, a tracker/watcher would be fuck over because any person they check would go somewhere. The only way to get a good track is to track to a death. All the other ones are useless because they can't determine anything. They only have a 2/25 chance (N1) of catching scum. And they can still be vig technically.

But lets say it was 10 or something 10 v 11 -> 10 vs 6 vs 5, Blue roles have to cover less people. But that is still 10 other people a invest blue role has to either check or track. Not to mention that any of the 10 vt's could be shot theoretically (scum/3rd party killer would pick high value targets) And this is not meationing if the roles are not trackable or watchable.

Then Physiologically, some invest blue roles might check the vt to make sure they are vt's. thus wasting a check.

I guess the protection and vet roles would be fine/in a better spot.

idk about what would happen if you than make everyone out of the circle claim.

Eh it not that great when i look at it like this.

Are you 2 seriously arguing over the completely irrelevant math of a number ritoky obviously just made up to prove his point? Wtf.

I was trying to understand why it was bad to people.
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
March 24 2016 23:10 GMT
#893
Imo I'd suggest just totally forgetting about that rut stuff atm unless you are going to push to lynch him. The thread is getting derailed,by it somewhat and we should,focus elsewhere unless we lynch rit.

Anyway yeah kind of not sure where I want to go yet.but jat is right about Rels.
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 24 2016 23:10 GMT
#894
On March 25 2016 08:08 Superbia wrote:
All right, now that I have both your attention I want to continue the train of thought.

Everyone kind of agrees that gumshoe's post was somewhat scummy, and that it was an easy scum-push regardless of alignment. So I'm inclined to believe that -a- scum would pile on the push. Agreed?

See my answer on your other post for my answer.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
sicklucker
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada16987 Posts
March 24 2016 23:10 GMT
#895
Does anyone have links to the setups of previous storm games btw
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5188 Posts
March 24 2016 23:10 GMT
#896
On March 25 2016 08:08 Superbia wrote:
All right, now that I have both your attention I want to continue the train of thought.

Everyone kind of agrees that gumshoe's post was somewhat scummy, and that it was an easy scum-push regardless of alignment. So I'm inclined to believe that -a- scum would pile on the push. Agreed?

Yes.
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16324 Posts
March 24 2016 23:11 GMT
#897
On March 25 2016 08:06 Kurumi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 07:59 justanothertownie wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:57 Shapelog wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:33 Kurumi wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:26 ritoky wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:24 Kurumi wrote:
Wait why 8?


cuz i picked a random fucking large number


Is it really that huge? 21 players total. 4 probably Mafia. 17 players left. 8 players believe that they are Town. You still have 9 Townies not sharing that sentiment. That's excluding possible 3rd party shenanigans and different Mafia size (I could see it being 5 even). It does not seem that huge. Because it is 8 players analysing 13 players, you are much more likely to down or out a blue. This would probably result in last minute switch shenanigans and disorder. This would lead to Mafia having even more information. In that 8, you could have three Mafia who figured out that it is a good idea to get on that Ford Wave and now you have 5 townies believing strongly that 3 players are Townie, but are actually Mafia. Mafia creates lynch after lynch, blue blood is the last sight of the day, blue blood is the first sight of the day and since this setup is about being careful, I don't see it being good.

Wait hold on. I am going to use this 8 logic here because i am confused now.
+ Show Spoiler +
So Best case would turn it into 8 v 13 right? Let say about 5 roles are 3rd party/mafia So 8 v 8 v 5.....
Mafia would have some kinda of KP so they would shot into the 8 vt;s or whatever, let say 3rd is a kill role.
So each night 2 of the confirm townies die, or they shot into the suspect pool.
The 8 blue roles would then check eachother/use their power on the other people (assuming they have a power). Well, Instantly, a tracker/watcher would be fuck over because any person they check would go somewhere. The only way to get a good track is to track to a death. All the other ones are useless because they can't determine anything. They only have a 2/25 chance (N1) of catching scum. And they can still be vig technically.

But lets say it was 10 or something 10 v 11 -> 10 vs 6 vs 5, Blue roles have to cover less people. But that is still 10 other people a invest blue role has to either check or track. Not to mention that any of the 10 vt's could be shot theoretically (scum/3rd party killer would pick high value targets) And this is not meationing if the roles are not trackable or watchable.

Then Physiologically, some invest blue roles might check the vt to make sure they are vt's. thus wasting a check.

I guess the protection and vet roles would be fine/in a better spot.

idk about what would happen if you than make everyone out of the circle claim.

Eh it not that great when i look at it like this.

Are you 2 seriously arguing over the completely irrelevant math of a number ritoky obviously just made up to prove his point? Wtf.


I only made one post on this, no idea why Shape brought it up, the thing that stroke me the most was that ritoky thought 8 players is huge, while it is not. BTW JAT, there is one thing I like about sandroba lynch: past experience with scum in Storm 1. RebirthOfLegend went MIA, I believe on Day 2, because we thought he'd be modkilled on the basis of lack of activity, but more seriously because of playing against wincon of either side, we lynched someone else. He lived on, even posted very fast after the lynch happened. He was the Mafia Poisoner. There is a world where sandroba is a red role and just wants to survive the D1, but I think sandroba has enough time to prove us wrong if he chooses to pop into the thread in like, even 12 hours.
I won't support the sandy lynch right now, I just wanted to say that there was a play concerning "afk" mafia in the first Storm Mafia and because of lack of activity requirements we need to keep an eye on that.

I am well aware that we need to be less lenient on activity this game and that scum sandro is prone to lurk like a bitch. But if we want to policy him we can do that before deadline. The ideal case would be that we have a vig who can kill him in the night because if we really waste a lynch on sandro we won't gain any information regardless of his flip.
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16324 Posts
March 24 2016 23:14 GMT
#898
On March 25 2016 08:07 Shapelog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2016 07:50 Kurumi wrote:
On March 25 2016 07:29 Shapelog wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

[image loading]

Damm i pick like the worse time to leave. Can someone tell me why the plan was bad? I thought the execution could of been better but i liked the concept.


Jesus I've been leaving you and your "Kurumi is X." Some posts later "Kurumi is Y." later: "Hey Dude, do you think Kurumi is more of a X or more of a Z?", are you able to make your goddamn mind about anything without the help of others? It feels like you are trying the ground everytime you do post a read. You feel very insecure and for a person with such contrary opinion to the current state of the thread your defense of ritoky is very weak. What is good about the concept? You agree that execution was bad, but why and why would it point to ritoky Town?

IIRC i didn't do the bolded. Tube questioned me about it and i said i would look back at your posts.

I thought the concept was good because it would theoretically make a good town circle if it worked. I didn't take into the account of what happens to the blue roles and how it would play out (I should of).

I think rik is town because he tried to make a play that would help town in his opinion. Why would scum put that much attention on themselves? to snag some blue roles? I admit the excuation was awful because of Calling Damdred blue/scum, thus giving away any benefits it might have.

Also if it was a mafia play, i think it would of been thought out more and he wouldn't out it. I feel like he hasn't really plan for a response to this mess, which would make since if he is town.


I think we can all agree that ritoky thought it would get him townread regardless of his alignment, no?
On March 25 2016 08:08 Superbia wrote:
All right, now that I have both your attention I want to continue the train of thought.

Everyone kind of agrees that gumshoe's post was somewhat scummy, and that it was an easy scum-push regardless of alignment. So I'm inclined to believe that -a- scum would pile on the push. Agreed?

This seems like an arbitrary claim without a solid foundation to me.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
March 24 2016 23:16 GMT
#899
God fucking damnit. I want to continue this line of thought with minimal effort but I can't. Brb reading the fixed timeline by shapelog (iirc).
Minimal effort.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
March 24 2016 23:17 GMT
#900
It is somewhat arbitrary JAT, but gumshoe flipping green is the most relevant info we have right now.
Minimal effort.
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