Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 62

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 29 2016 20:35 GMT

#1221

On January 30 2016 05:27 Onegu wrote:
FYI there wasnt going to be a troll onegu this game but eden is bringing him out...

Lol ok. You were about as far away from "tryhard" as can be. Now you're going to excuse yourself from living up to your own not-even-lofty, but apparently still too high, standards.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 29 2016 20:36 GMT

#1222

On January 30 2016 05:26 Onegu wrote:

Show nested quote +

His first scum read on me. Then the follow up now. And now I dont think the meta argument is broken completely.

Literal actual OMGUS + a horrible, demonstrably false meta argument.

Do you even have other reads? Trfel is now null, great. Non-read. What else? Preferably something actually meaningful.

Onegu

United States9696 Posts

January 29 2016 20:37 GMT

#1223

On January 30 2016 05:36 Eden1892 wrote:

Show nested quote +

Literal actual OMGUS + a horrible, demonstrably false meta argument.

Do you even have other reads? Trfel is now null, great. Non-read. What else? Preferably something actually meaningful.

Nope have I mentioned you are scum?

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 29 2016 20:45 GMT

#1224

OK great thanks for conceding. One down.

Trfel

7015 Posts

January 29 2016 20:48 GMT

#1225

Eden1892, do you really think that Onegu would push you here as mafia?

I kind of feel like Onegu, as mafia, wouldn't do something irrational like this or push "wildly". I don't feel like you're an easy target for mafia to push, so I'm not sure what Onegu's aim as mafia would be.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 29 2016 20:49 GMT

#1226

OK, first thing I notice from Onegu's filter is lots of talking to Shapelog as though he's for sure town. I had Shapelog in my town pile already, but I know several people were still worried. Go read Onegu's filter and look at how he talks to Shapelog, you can see that he doesn't even pretend to be suspicious of Shapelog. Shapelog is town.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 29 2016 20:50 GMT

#1227

On January 30 2016 05:48 Trfel wrote:
Eden1892, do you really think that Onegu would push you here as mafia?

I kind of feel like Onegu, as mafia, wouldn't do something irrational like this or push "wildly". I don't feel like you're an easy target for mafia to push, so I'm not sure what Onegu's aim as mafia would be.

It's not smart for him to do that as mafia, but he's apparently elected to try, so I'm going to punish his mistake accordingly.

Trfel

7015 Posts

January 29 2016 20:52 GMT

#1228

I mean, I see why the rest of his play is mafia motivated and why it might come from mafia. I'm just having trouble with this part...

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 29 2016 20:55 GMT

#1229

On January 30 2016 05:52 Trfel wrote:
I mean, I see why the rest of his play is mafia motivated and why it might come from mafia. I'm just having trouble with this part...

Onegu is a cocky shit who thinks he's better than me. Easy. He told us that himself earlier in the game.

I admit that it's possible that I'm not being objective about it, because I really want to take him down a peg for being a dick this game, but I think that's a perfectly reasonable explanation.

Trfel

7015 Posts

January 29 2016 20:55 GMT

#1230

Onegu, initially you said that Eden1892's scumread of you didn't make him any alignment, it just made him bad.

Can you specifically state what happened that changed your mind? Did you see something different, or was it the continuation, or what?

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 29 2016 20:56 GMT

#1231

On January 30 2016 02:50 Eden1892 wrote:
Possible he just saw that it did him no favors to state his reads so passively and gave us the same thing with more definition. Or that he read new material and became more confident in his results. idk.

I don't think I would lynch Ikidomari at this point. The new reads list really cleaned up a lot of issues I had, but it didn't seem forced or anything. Also liked the discussion with noon.

I think I would not lynch these people at this point:
PepperMintTea
Alur
darthfoley
Ikidomari
_MexicanAlien
Shapelog

I would consider lynching these people, but would need a good reason:
nooniansoong

And I think these people are good lynches right now:
Tumblewood
JesusIncarnate
Trfel
Onegu

Notably, I would not lynch Trfel and Onegu, and think Trfel would be a better lynch than Onegu. Onegu wasn't doing much to be very "try-hard" or useful before his oog circumstances took over, and those two can't be mafia together.

noon hasn't really done all that much lately and it's starting to bother me a bit. he's still probably town, but I moved him out of my 'unlynchable' pile.

Updating at EON:

Don't lynch:
PMT
Alur
foley
Iki
Mex
Shape

Don't lynch without good reason:
noonkush
Trfel

Get these guys:
Onegu
Onegu
Onegu
Jesus
Onegu
Onegu
Tumblewood
Onegu

Alur

Denmark3900 Posts

January 29 2016 20:57 GMT

#1232

On January 30 2016 05:20 darthfoley wrote:

Show nested quote +

"just going to read and then get to work"

If she's reading the thread, I don't know why she wouldn't do anything during the night. My only point is that there has been plenty of stuff going on during the night worth at least discussing imo. If she were to die for example, she dies without giving a more up to date version of her reads, leaving town with a death and not much info to go off of.

That or she meant reading for pleasure and going to work irl? Maybe I completely misunderstood her post idk

I understand what you meant by the post. My complaint is why you specifically mention Ikidomari's post as something "she should have wanted talked about", when Ikidomaris post was made after she peaced out. She might not even have read it yet.

Alur

Denmark3900 Posts

January 29 2016 20:59 GMT

#1233

EoN post:

I've pretty much put all my reads on the table, see my reads list + my vca.
Caveat: Since Onegu just started posting, and Jesus hasn't returned, those would be my least developed reads. So obviously you should take into consideration future posts by them.

But I'll bring up a point that might be relevant in the future, in case I get lynched.

When we lynched kuragari42, there are two distinct mafia mindsets.

Option number 1:
Were playing the setup with a doctor (A or C): The mafia will be aware that Kuragari42 is potentially the doctor. They could potentially have revealed this in the way they treated the case.

Example: Trfel #1034

On January 29 2016 09:03 Trfel wrote:
Vote count analyses are very different depending on whether or not there is mafia up for lynch.

If all of the wagons were town, mafia doesn't really care what happens. As such, people who seem invested at end of day and care about the lynch are more likely town. If there is mafia up for lynch, then obviously people who voted for the flipped town are more suspicious. But that's very poor preflip association analysis to simply assume that mafia wanted Kuragari42 to be lynched.

I thought that Kuragari42 had slipped blue and/or was claiming blue, in which case it's always incorrect to lynch him. When I looked at his filter more carefully, this wasn't the case, so I switched my vote to him because his reads didn't seem very interesting. It didn't feel like Kuragari42 was trying to help further town and help catch scum, but instead just state his reads for the record. In retrospect, this isn't very alignment indicative.

Tumblewood wasn't going to get lynched, and I already explained my reasons for scumreading him as well as I could. I don't really think that JesusIncarnate is mafia.

Him thinking Kuragari42 had slipped blue, could be indicative of him being mafia, and knowing were playing setup A) or C).

Option number 2:
Were playing the setup without a doctor (B or D): The mafia will be aware that Kuragari42 IS FOR SURE TOWN. Mafia once again, might be inclined to reveal this by the way they treat the case.

Example: nooniansong #843

On January 29 2016 02:35 nooniansoong wrote:
I think kura townslipped. Aka dumbtell

So once we know which setup were playing in. Make sure to go back and analyze how players treated the case against Kuragari42 with this in mind. For now the only town aligned players who know that there's a doctor in the game or not is the doctor/veteran, these players could at this point use it to influence their reads (without stating it explicitly). Obviously, by using my logic the behavior I pointed out could also be indicative of the player being blue roles.

So use this information to whatever degree or purpose you see fit. This post only helps mafia if they havent thought of it themselves + certain criteria are met.