On February 01 2016 14:24 Eden1892 wrote:I might be going too deep with some of these names, but the scumteam almost certainly must come from this pool.
Tumblewood
nooniansoong
PepperMintTea
Of the living players, I've already explained why I believe Trfel, Mex, Shapelog, and Jesus are all town. Of course, darth is confirmed town, and I am town too.
That leaves the above pile, and quite honestly? I like it a lot.
In fact, I'm gonna go
way deep.
I think it's kush and Tumblewood.
I can't explain why all that well. But I'm gonna give ya what I got.
First Tumblewood. Trfel is right. Iki's read on Tumblewood is
really weird. Trfel already explained this, but Iki left himself a ton of wiggle room for reading Tumblewood as town or mafia.
But then notice how he addresses Trfel in that same post:
Show nested quote +Trfel
Scum read, has a whole lot of posts just asking questions without contributing any information, a whole lot of words with not much to say.
Jumped on the voting for tumbleweed bandwagon simply because it's embarrassing the newbies caught tumble, and not Trfel himself? (Am I missing something here?)
My biggest reason for thinking Trfel is scum is #607 where he says he's trying very hard not to direct the thread, then proceeds to direct the hell out of the thread dissecting tumbleweed's filter, this results in tumbleweed being the current lynch target.
Maybe this is a sick town play and we're going to get rid of mafia on the first night, but I think, judging from his experience, Trfel is an experienced mafia player, and is scum trying to get a townie lynched on day 1.
Isn't the certainty of this read really strange given his ambivalence about Tumblewood? Like he is
sure Trfel is mafia. At least relative to his other reads, this is as close to a definite statement we're gonna get from Iki on
anybody. And the bulk of his reason why has to do with Trfel pushing Tumblewood.
But...
if Iki himself is so unsure about Tumblewood's alignment, why is Trfel so clearly suspicious for pushing Tumblewood? Clearly, you would think, Iki has reservations about Tumblewood from reading Iki's posts. You would expect Iki to at least be somewhat okay with the idea that Tumblewood is mafia, and thus to be somewhat okay with Trfel pushing that idea.
I think Iki was trying to help Tumblewood out by going after Trfel, but also tried to cover his tracks and not leave too obvious an association between them. For the new players, this is called a
chainsaw defense -- where you alleviate pressure on a teammate by attacking his attacker, and put the attacker on the backpedal, in order to drive the spotlight away from your teammate.
And guess who else was in on this "push Trfel for his Tumblewood read" action?
kush.
kush is where I'm going way deep on this. But I got a few circumstantial reasons, an associative read, and a goddamn DREAM.
1. kush has been very adamantly defending me from the players scumreading me. There's something weird about it.
In the first place... I don't think he should have been so sure! I can't even believe I'm using this argument, but I would concede that I haven't been as obviously town as I normally would be. I believe I've satisfactorily explained why this is the case, but that doesn't matter. kush didn't know all that. He still was sure I was town.
The second thing is that I didn't really need it! I can defend myself, he knows it and knows I know it. I was never a serious lynch prospect, despite what Mex and Shapelog would want to believe. (Sorry amigos.)
He gave great reasons for me being town. Reasons he could easily give as town. But the
timing is what's so weird. I didn't need it... so it wasn't actually contributing all that much.
It gets weirder when you consider a great deal of that effort in defending me was made to Trfel,
as he was scumreading Trfel. Like why would you bother? You think Trfel is mafia so you would then believe he doesn't actually believe his read on me. So why go to the effort of arguing with him about me? Makes no sense from townie POV.
But it does make sense from scum POV, because it looks like a relevant topic for discussion, and you think you can get Trfel to say something shady if you keep talking about my alignment and eventually I flip town.
2. kush has been attacking Trfel very doggedly about this Tumblewood read. The timing on that has also been consistent with the notion of a chainsaw defense. You have to believe Tumblewood is mafia already for this to work, but it makes sense based on what's already been discussed. Frankly, I've felt his attack has been too stringent. It feels just a little bit beyond reasonable townie aggression to me. I don't really know how to explain this right, but I am pretty sure I am reading this correctly. I think kush was defending his partner Tumblewood, and by taking the mindset that Tumblewood must be in the right and Trfel must be in the wrong, kush went beyond the reasonable limits of townie interrogation and argumentation on Tumblewood's alignment. kush just seems
too sure about Trfel being wrong about Tumblewood for my tastes.
3. As noted before, I believe Iki left one of his partners in the null/watch list, and one in the list of players he didn't discuss. If you accept my narrowing down the pool at the beginning of this post, and you also accept my premise about where Iki put his partners, then you know kush is, by process of elimination, the other partner.
I'll concede that neither of these cases are ironclad, but I really really believe in them right now. I may go back and do further digging to see if I still believe them, or if I were incorrect. But I think this is a really good direction to go in and I would encourage people to join me on it.
Scumteam is Tumblewood and nooniansoong.
EPT
But two mafia down gives us 192 hours to find the last mafia, so there shouldn't be any rush 
