I'm going to do some work.

Most important fact today:
At least 1 mafia in:
- Myself
- Rels
- Palmar
- The shining

I'm going to make a wild assumption and assume that disfo was with one of the others.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 30 2016 21:20 GMT

#4645

Actually also somewhat (very) important:

Does the vanilla virus block factional KP (i.e. mafia KP)?

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 30 2016 21:41 GMT

#4651

On January 31 2016 06:27 The Shining wrote:

Show nested quote +

My thoughts are every time you suggest lynching me, my townread gets a little weaker. My thoughts are you've spent a few posts today talking about lylo, numbers, setup, night actions that depend on a lot of moving parts and haven't explained what would make me scum, or Rels scum if I flip town. You are also certain that we are 5v1v1 when there are only 5 flipped scum and we don't know GBs alignment. You're putting a lot of thought and effort into something that could be misinformed from the very beginning.

That's very true, the 5v1v1 is pure conjecture, but I tried putting together 5v2v1 worlds and it's so much harder to calculate the correct play because we don't guarantee KP reduction on a hit.

Also I've been kind of lazy with reads due to the size of the game and my role. I really don't feel like I have to elaborate on my gut-reads due to having KP. Don't need to convince no one of shit. :D

As for both you and rels:
I believe I had you as null early on in the game (which in this game is an automatic scum-lean) and I never shared Palmar's TR on you. I was kind of surprised to find your name as still alive in my roles-list doc (didn't know you were in the game), and, possibly most important of all, there's 1 scum between me, you, rels and palmar. And I think rels and palmar in particular have been wayyyy townier.

Rels:
Had a really really hard town read on him d0-d1. Has fallen off since then. Feel like his saves are actually a bit mehhhh. Especially with the Koshi death.. Despite that still think he's town because I kind of masoned with him d1. I don't give out mason easily.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 30 2016 21:41 GMT

#4652

Actually who came up with the fact that the KP had to be on keir?

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 30 2016 21:41 GMT

#4653

Between me, palmar, the shining.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 30 2016 21:41 GMT

#4654

That could've been an actual slip.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 30 2016 21:43 GMT

#4655

It's rels. Nvm.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 30 2016 21:45 GMT

#4656

Also TT, have partially read your plan and it might be useful to confirm a town or a mafia. Force them to take the roleblock and look at KP. Don't have time to look at all angles bc I really have to do some work now.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 30 2016 21:45 GMT

#4657

I like the plan. Have to look at it in depth.

Be back later.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 31 2016 12:02 GMT

#4666

On January 31 2016 19:36 Palmar wrote:

Show nested quote +

why is this true btw?

All right. I think the points you brought up are correct, and my assumptions are a bit too steep. These are assumptions I made which may actually not be true:

- Glowingbear was the Challenger (Kenpachi). Which means that: I was roleblocked n2->visiting TT->TT is roleblocked n3. Therefore cannot carry KP. HOWEVER. Glowingbear could've just actually been the jailkeeper or something similar. His role never was confirmed because he never flipped. Assuming GB was kenpachi means TT was unable to carry KP last night (I believe).

- Copcake couldn't carry KP last night confirmed. Keir said he would track her and flipped town. So we can safely assume copcake did not carry KP last night.

- SL claimed to have been roleblocked. Koshi is the safe assumption. This is very likely because:
- Koshi was reading SL mafia.
- Koshi more than likely did not use his mad hatter ability because all KP is essentially accounted for. There is a freak world where it was on Keir, but that's so ridiculously far fetched I don't even want to think about it. So no. Likely he used his roleblock.
- He likely didn't claim because it looked like he was going to live.

SO. Essentially we can say:
- SL (92%)
- Copcake (99%)
- Possibly TT (but I'm kind of reluctant now because we never confirmed GB's role).

were unable to carry KP last night.

So let's say we take TT out of that list bc of GB shennanigans.

That means that 2KP has to have come out of his list:
- Myself
- Rels
- Palmar
- Tictock
- The Shining
- Disformation

We know for sure that disfo was mafia and could've carried KP (actually somewhat likely because I outed my KP 25-20m before EoN resolution time iirc).

So as such, we can remove disfo from the list and reduce the KP by at most 1 which leaves us with the conclusion:
There is, ALWAYS at least 1 mafia (to have carried the at least 1 KP) in this list:
- Myself
- Rels
- Palmar
- Tictock (if GB was mafia and lied)
- The Shining

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 31 2016 12:03 GMT

#4667

Now the whole GB thing I figured out kind of makes the information less relevant because my earlier list is less reliable so meh.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 31 2016 12:05 GMT

#4668

I think it leaves copcake off the table for today. And I think it kind confirms SL as being town, because I think he would always have carried the KP for his team last night with the track threat we had lying around.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 31 2016 12:08 GMT

#4669

Gonna eat some lunch and do some work. I want everyone to give thoughts on the logic and their own conclusions.

Still pretty undecided on the lynch. =/ I'll be back later today to review some filters to decide.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 31 2016 12:17 GMT

#4670

Actually this probably just means very little with TT out of the confirmed not being able to provide KP list. z_z gdi nvm.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 31 2016 23:20 GMT

#4795

Here. Reading.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 31 2016 23:24 GMT

#4802

Kind of forgot about TT's plan. If we want to lynch rels and roleblock the shining I'm never shooting the shining via TT. I'll be shooting into TT/copcake.

TT you need to do your ban thing during the day right? If so you need to use it before EoD.

I'd prefer to flip the shining today tbh. But in the end I'll just sheep palmar. PoE is PoE.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 31 2016 23:27 GMT

#4807

I believe Koshi's roleblock wasn't one-shot from the OP. Neither was his madhat.

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 31 2016 23:28 GMT

#4808

Wait I'm actually not following the discussion right now. Why do we think Koshi both blocked a KP AND madhatted keir?

Superbia

Netherlands8889 Posts

January 31 2016 23:30 GMT

#4815

On February 01 2016 08:29 The Shining wrote:

Show nested quote +

We don't. That's the discussion. One ort the other happened n2. But it isn't that he blocked the kp, it's that he could've blocked scum. Or hattered Keir.

If he blocked scum then how the fuck did we see 3kp.