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On January 03 2016 07:12 Onegu wrote:
1 no he is talking about this game. If there was context he would write it like there was, but he slipped and fucked up.
Because all my day 1 reads and most of my reads up until lylo are based off of how people interact and talk about me.
Let's look at the quote.
On December 30 2015 23:27 Fidei86 wrote:
Policy
Onegu - Please all think of a world where we get to LYLO or LYLO-1 and Onegu still hasn't said anything, still hasn't been modkilled and still hasn't been lynched. He does this EVERY GAME HE PLAYS. And it is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE for town to win if it gets that far, because he is a total coin-flip and the easiest ML in the world. His content is totally absent.
the wording "you are the easiest ML in the world" implies that it's a characteristic of your play style rather than a comment on this particular game.
I think you are using this scumslip and the fact that "you only make reads based off people talking about you" as an excuse to not have to do anything.
And I think you are the easy lynch today,
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On January 03 2016 02:42 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2016 02:05 GlowingBear wrote:On January 03 2016 01:45 mderg wrote:On January 03 2016 01:41 GlowingBear wrote:
Mderg, what's your read on Koshi? Koshi is always town. He's not in this game, though. ROFL I meant Onegu He's meh. Not much actual content coming from him and he isn't trying that much to bring the discussion forwards. For the most part he was just going after the supposed scumslip. His extreme insistence on lynching Fidei for the scumslip makes me think he's town but I wouldn't be surprised, if he was scum. So, probably town but I don't want to be the one to make the decision on him.
Why is his tunnel probably town?
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Plowing through Shapelog's filter now, but I'll add this in the meantime:
On Onegu
Right now, I think Onegu and GB are both mafia for independent reasons, but I'm having a real tough go at which one I actually want to lynch. Both are voting each other and GB's initial hesitancy before voting Onegu made me want to think he's protecting the roleblocker or a godfather in the situation they are both mafia but yes I realise this is unflipped association. And now that he's voting Onegu that makes me pause because he would have put up greater resistance to that instead of actually voting him.
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From a non-associative standpoint, his push on GB is almost purely OMGUS whereas the argument that GB is making against him is that Onegu is saying something he possibly couldn't believe. Whereas Onegu is countering with GB is mafia for trying to metaread him, and making a read like that isn't a metaread. That's just an argument for why Onegu is legitimately mafia.
From a non-associative standpoint, Onegu is still paying no mind to Shapelog even though he said earlier "he's probably scum" based on the same scumslip criteria so this could also be very well a soft push and a complete lack of followup. I had reason for a scumread on Shapelog earlier in the game as he was playing a very reactive game.
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On January 03 2016 01:37 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2016 01:19 NocturneMage wrote:My take on GB, going through his filter. Points that make GB scummy (1) Engagement with KMatt was poor when he initially scumread him and early on I felt he didn't do anything with his reaction test (or whatever it is) that got any alignment indicative information on Shapelog (the only other person interacting at the time), etc. This I thought was scummy from GB. (2) This post. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/500060-newbie-student-mafia-xviii?page=31#615Kush voting with Onegu was after Onegu gave one reason for voting Fidei and Kush at that time gave a separate reason for voting Fidei. So I don't think this is unreasonable and it looks like you are taking the situation out of context. (3) The post on killing GigyaS is bad because D1 nightkills yield little information, like I did in a few of the games I've played you need multiple nights of NK WIFOM analysis or NK WIFOM analysis with something else to more reasonably go after someone. (4) Stance on mderg. From what I can tell mderg has posted in and out of the thread since GB has made his initial scumread on him and GB seems pretty content to call him mafia without (from what I can tell) any re-evaluation. (5) Related to (4), hard stance on Onegu in nightphase - he's saying that Onegu cannot possibly believe what he's saying/double standards on him and Shapelog but then he takes a read based on LESS RELIABLE INFORMATION (NK WIFOM from night 1) and wants to lynch GigyaS over what from his perspective should be MORE RELIABLE INFORMATION (Onegu cannot believe what he's possibly saying). The problem with this is that both GB and Onegu are calling each other mafia, Onegu is straightaway lynching GB, GB isn't lynching Onegu straightaway though, so I'm trying to figure out if this could be the surface of double bussing or what. (1) I've just explained that it wasn't a reaction test, it was just to have people discussing. This means that how people react doesn't matter. So I don't necessarily was expecting a response from Shapelog and I don't necessarily need to infer anything from his responses. Also, have in mind that although I've posted a vote without reasoning, it doesn't mean I didn't have a read on Kmatt. I did. (2) I didn't click on the post lol so I don't know what you're talking about, I will check it after I post this. (3) Fair enough. I had in mind that if I wasn't going to be killed night1 it was because I was wrong (my reads differ from basically everyone in the thread, I supposed that if I was right I would die, therefore, my reads are wrong and I should re-check Irish's scum reads). But you are right.(4) Lurking isn't the reason I am scum reading him, so coming in and out of the thread doesn't matter. What matters is HOW he is doing it, and he is being very selective on what to talk about and not really pursuing any person to further investigate people's alignment, which makes me think he is scum.(5) You're right, again. I should be voting Onegu.
GB, two things
(1) On mderg, do you think his latest post - or rather how he's framed it - comes from a mafia mindset? Specifically the argument that GigyaS is the easiest target for you (paraphrasing) as opposed to you trying to push him (mderg) or Onegu?
To me either alternative would have been reasonable because it was earlier in the cycle.
Or are you saying that mderg is mafia because he's only talking about you? How are these things impossible from a town standpoint?
(2) On gigyas, I get what you mean here but your reads could be wrong, they could be right (mafia with 1kp cannot kill two people with correct reads), they could have been bluehunting for all we know, or they could have just taken out someone who would appear to them impossible to mislynch.
To me, it just appears odd at best that a veteran player like you would put so much weight on that when you had (1) more conviction (for whatever reason) that mderg was mafia and (2) you previously made an argument that placed Onegu as exclusively mafia.
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I'm putting my vote on Onegu - this could obviously change.
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Shapelog makes several comments on Onegu throughout his filter but no actual reads on him, only that Day 1 Onegu is "weird".
681 is really scummy because he definitely talks about the scumslip and should have been able to make a conclusion on it. Instead he tells Onegu to "put in effort". There's no meaningful interactions where he either makes a conclusion. In 684 he still fails to make a read on him, even after asking questions.
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EBWOP - There's no meaningful interactions where he makes a conclusion either way.
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Couple additional things I don't like about Shapelog - he said his reads got more pointed/more precise as the game would go on, On that note alone, the Onegu read alone, that fails.
Also a general newbie mafia tell - if I am correct here, this is his second game, aside the issues with him in the ER, and NYE, and newbie mafia have a tough time posting over multiple cycles, or they fall off. Some time has elapsed since New Year's, and this combined with other points, makes a mafia Shapelog more likely.
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Vote Count - Day 2
GlowingBear (3): Kmatt, Onegu, mderg
Onegu (3): GlowingBear, nooniansoong, NocturneMage
GiygaS (0) GlowingBear
Not Voting (4): Shapelog, The Shining, GiygaS, Fidei86
At this time, GlowingBear is slated to be lynched.
Day 1 ends in on Sunday, Jan 03 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00).
The voting thread is here.
Only votes there will be counted.
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Don't know if anyone else just noticed but TheCow has been replaced by The Shining. I had my theories on Cow, but since his "character" has been replaced more or less I'd like our "new" friend to weigh in on some current events. Obviously he should read the thread when appropriate, but for when he's finished:
1) Seeing the previous days' discussion in the context current death toll, who or what do you think the biggest factor in Scott's mislynch was?
2) Similarly, why do you think the mafia went for Irish on the first night? (technically if we have both a doctor and vigilante in this game then that might not have been the case but for the sake of argument I'll assume Irish's death was the mafia's doing) Did any of his reads stand out to you or did any arguments he put out seem to be catching on with the thread?
3) Could you weigh in on my GB case? Obviously my opinion on the matter is plain to see, so I'd like to see some other people bounce ideas off of it. Do you think I over-reacted or overlooked anything in my wall of text?
Granted, anyone is invited to answer these, but since I didn't get to see much from Cow before he left, I'd like a bit more insight from his replacement.
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On January 02 2016 23:58 nooniansoong wrote:
Except town does do all those things he said town doesn't do. So I don't think it's a good case.
I'd like you to explain this bit in detail. I'm assuming "all those things he said town doesn't do" to be the following
On January 02 2016 15:09 Kmatt wrote:
A townie has no reason to shitpost past the opening banter. GB repeatedly shitposts throughout the thread.
A townie has no reason to avoid posting his own cases when prompted. GB deflects questions towards his reads twice now.
A townie has no reason to derail someone else's analysis and arguments that could help solve the game. GB attempts to derail discussion and arguments multiple times while contributing nothing to said discussion.
A townie with no information about the other players would have no reason to vehemently defend Scott's innocence without a case and then completely throw him under the bus at the last second. You know the rest
And most of all
A townie wouldn't make reads about players with virtually nothing to back them up, but have no hesitation posting them for everyone to see. Every read should be in support or against a lynch vote. Almost none of GBs reads contribute towards that goal.
Note that I never said it's things that town "doesn't do" but that they are things a townie has no reason to do.
Could you present the town motivation for calling TheCow's theories "cute" instead of an actual response?
Could you present the town motivation for deflecting a chance to explain his own platform in order to ask for reads? (and what about "now that I have you attention"? We're on a forum, everyone can "hear" him loud and clear)
Could you present the town motivation for placing a vote onto Scott not because he believed Scott to be scum but that Scott voted on one of his townreads. What is the town motivation to intentionally lynch another (supposed) townie?
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Ill be on tomorrow morning, but I've just had the longest day ever and need to sleep (12 hours in a Calgary airport bored out of my skull, thanks United >.<)
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On January 03 2016 09:54 nooniansoong wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2016 02:42 mderg wrote:On January 03 2016 02:05 GlowingBear wrote:On January 03 2016 01:45 mderg wrote:On January 03 2016 01:41 GlowingBear wrote:
Mderg, what's your read on Koshi? Koshi is always town. He's not in this game, though. ROFL I meant Onegu He's meh. Not much actual content coming from him and he isn't trying that much to bring the discussion forwards. For the most part he was just going after the supposed scumslip. His extreme insistence on lynching Fidei for the scumslip makes me think he's town but I wouldn't be surprised, if he was scum. So, probably town but I don't want to be the one to make the decision on him. Why is his tunnel probably town?
I simply wouldn't expect scum to tunnel so heavily for IMO stupid reasons. So yeah, I'm not very confident in this read.
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On January 03 2016 11:40 Kmatt wrote:Show nested quote +On January 02 2016 23:58 nooniansoong wrote:
Except town does do all those things he said town doesn't do. So I don't think it's a good case. I'd like you to explain this bit in detail. I'm assuming "all those things he said town doesn't do" to be the following Show nested quote +On January 02 2016 15:09 Kmatt wrote:
A townie has no reason to shitpost past the opening banter. GB repeatedly shitposts throughout the thread.
A townie has no reason to avoid posting his own cases when prompted. GB deflects questions towards his reads twice now.
A townie has no reason to derail someone else's analysis and arguments that could help solve the game. GB attempts to derail discussion and arguments multiple times while contributing nothing to said discussion.
A townie with no information about the other players would have no reason to vehemently defend Scott's innocence without a case and then completely throw him under the bus at the last second. You know the rest
And most of all
A townie wouldn't make reads about players with virtually nothing to back them up, but have no hesitation posting them for everyone to see. Every read should be in support or against a lynch vote. Almost none of GBs reads contribute towards that goal.
Note that I never said it's things that town "doesn't do" but that they are things a townie has no reason to do. Could you present the town motivation for calling TheCow's theories "cute" instead of an actual response? Could you present the town motivation for deflecting a chance to explain his own platform in order to ask for reads? (and what about "now that I have you attention"? We're on a forum, everyone can "hear" him loud and clear) Could you present the town motivation for placing a vote onto Scott not because he believed Scott to be scum but that Scott voted on one of his townreads. What is the town motivation to intentionally lynch another (supposed) townie?
Some thoughts about your case on Glowing. I've only skimmed that huge post, though.
I don't think looking for town motivation behind posts is the right way to get your reads. Townies do lots of stupid shit. For me the question is: Is he scum?
If those things are not something town "doesn't do", you admit that town might do those things. In that case you'd have to take a look at a possible scum motivation behind it.
Does scum have more reason to call theCow's post cute than town? --> I don't see a good reason for that as either alignment.
Could you see the scum motivation for deflecting a chance to explain his own platform in order to ask for reads? --> I can
Could you present the town motivation for placing a vote onto Scott not because he believed Scott to be scum but that Scott voted on one of his townreads. What is the town motivation to intentionally lynch another (supposed) townie? --> I don't think Glowing ever gave a strong townread on scott. That's why I found his defense so scummy.
So, I think your case is not well thought out at some points (and should have been half as long at most). But it brings up a few good points and I'm pretty confident in Glowing being scum.
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Thanks for stepping in to explain it to the newbie, Mr mafia 😄
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On January 03 2016 19:36 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2016 09:54 nooniansoong wrote:On January 03 2016 02:42 mderg wrote:On January 03 2016 02:05 GlowingBear wrote:On January 03 2016 01:45 mderg wrote:On January 03 2016 01:41 GlowingBear wrote:
Mderg, what's your read on Koshi? Koshi is always town. He's not in this game, though. ROFL I meant Onegu He's meh. Not much actual content coming from him and he isn't trying that much to bring the discussion forwards. For the most part he was just going after the supposed scumslip. His extreme insistence on lynching Fidei for the scumslip makes me think he's town but I wouldn't be surprised, if he was scum. So, probably town but I don't want to be the one to make the decision on him. Why is his tunnel probably town? I simply wouldn't expect scum to tunnel so heavily for IMO stupid reasons. So yeah, I'm not very confident in this read.
So he's too Scummy to be scum?
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Shape mderg onegu is my scumteam. So we basically agree nm.
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On January 03 2016 22:47 nooniansoong wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2016 19:36 mderg wrote:On January 03 2016 09:54 nooniansoong wrote:On January 03 2016 02:42 mderg wrote:On January 03 2016 02:05 GlowingBear wrote:On January 03 2016 01:45 mderg wrote:On January 03 2016 01:41 GlowingBear wrote:
Mderg, what's your read on Koshi? Koshi is always town. He's not in this game, though. ROFL I meant Onegu He's meh. Not much actual content coming from him and he isn't trying that much to bring the discussion forwards. For the most part he was just going after the supposed scumslip. His extreme insistence on lynching Fidei for the scumslip makes me think he's town but I wouldn't be surprised, if he was scum. So, probably town but I don't want to be the one to make the decision on him. Why is his tunnel probably town? I simply wouldn't expect scum to tunnel so heavily for IMO stupid reasons. So yeah, I'm not very confident in this read. So he's too Scummy to be scum?
I would rather say his play is too dumb to scum. That goes in a similar direction, though.
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But onegu is not the kind of player you can make that argument for because he knows he has a Scummy town meta.
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EPT
