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Good group of policy lynches I see here. 
Could consider joining if my time in the newbie game ends or the game ends so I can torture all of you.
On a serious note, I'm confused on the rules.
The rules say KP is factional. But apparently there is a jailkeeper (which I learnt is the same thing as a town roleblocker???) which can block kp, a rolecop that can deliver kp....so I'm just a bit confused as to whether that is a mistake or the rolecop can do something I'm not aware of.
I've never played in any games with a rolecop so I have no idea.
Meh, maybe I should just stick to newbie games.
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On November 19 2015 13:30 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On November 19 2015 00:08 NocturneMage wrote:Good group of policy lynches I see here. Could consider joining if my time in the newbie game ends or the game ends so I can torture all of you. On a serious note, I'm confused on the rules. The rules say KP is factional. But apparently there is a jailkeeper (which I learnt is the same thing as a town roleblocker???) which can block kp, a rolecop that can deliver kp....so I'm just a bit confused as to whether that is a mistake or the rolecop can do something I'm not aware of. I've never played in any games with a rolecop so I have no idea. Meh, maybe I should just stick to newbie games. Roleblocker and JK are a little different but similar. Main difference is that JK can act like a Doc and JK a townie who might be targeted with KP and keep them safe, RB has to correctly block the mafia carrying KP to stop it. JK's target is effectively removed from the game for that night period, so become unable to act or be targeted. RB's target is prevented from taking any action. Thus JK > RB, though only by a little. Someone correct me if I've got this wrong.
Well kp here is factional, and the OP says that the mafia RB can roleblock the jailkeeper but not the other way around.
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Still in newbie James.
If I join, I will probably tunnel Daniele all game tbh. and probably end her lol.
but I will need to policy lynch you at some point.
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Who's the slacker? Should have said something like the last person to confirm gets automatically policy lynched or something.
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On November 29 2015 21:53 Fidei86 wrote:
Kinda glad Alex isn't playing, so I don't have to sit by and watch him win the game while I mess everything up
LOL? Who says I'm good at finding scum? Well even when I do, I can't convince dick all in getting my lynches. Bah.
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Looks like he's aiming for an 11pm start tonight.
GL HF everyone.
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On November 30 2015 00:46 disformation wrote:
GL HF everyone, may RNGesus make me Mafia.
Fixed that for you. There needs to be a first time for scumformation.
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Cheers everyone.
HTS went to bed but I'll say this, Fecalfeast posted his replace before me, zero complaints, and if we can play Mafia IRL...TL doesn't hold a candle.
She wouldn't mind. She would love to get her revenge and lynch me so...
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On December 01 2015 01:30 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2015 02:04 Half the Sky wrote:
Pre-game excuse - If this game starts soon, I have two job interviews on Monday so I won't be anywhere near this game especially if either of them go really well \o/
Well, here's hoping. So what's the news ?
She texted me after both ended. Both went very well.
She might have another one in the works as well. Honestly I'm just glad she has options.
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On December 01 2015 04:45 disformation wrote:
pregame excuse: I am tired but already drank one normal and three large coffees. Halp?
That doesn't sound good at all. How much sleep did you get?
I get ridiculous headaches with that amount of caffeine.
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yo, at work, on mobile, finishing work late tonight, need to go to bed right after though and I have seminars all damn day tomorrow.
I've not read dick all or followed the game for d1 quite yet, but I'm VT and I'm ready to fuck up some dirty dirty scummers.
reading from end of cycle, I'm pretty suspicious of trfel again (I say again because he was scum the last game) but that's mainly because of how he played last game. of course he'd push moosydoosy, he's unreadable as fuck as either alignment. same desperation emotions when no one is listening to him. unless he does this as town. cool story bro, try harder because I'm not scum.
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hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two.
although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch?
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I also should indicate she has had some major issues with her health and work lately, interviews aside, but that will have zero bearing on my read. her game has gotten trashed due to RL as both alignments.
also I can see where the modconfirmation of LS comes from. pending a re-read of his filter I'll believe it for now.
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Palmar's posts around end of cycle look really bad as well. I'd need to go into depth as to why he lynched kush but that just looks really bad the way he phrased it.
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there is absolutely nothing wrong with kush saying that ls reliance on meta is bad, any one of you who has played with me last game should know that I hate the overuse of meta, and I will go bat shit on people who extensively use meta. not bm of course, but the overuse of meta in the manner he used it is not a bad argument at all.
I'd need to check his filter again when I get home to return, but that looks reasonable enough to me and palmar calls that shit overexplanation? fuck no.
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back to work, end of cycle gives me a good starting point as to where to go when I can really sink in.
scummers, I'm coming for you. be scared.
and daniele, if you are mafia, I love you to death and that will never change, but as far as this game is concerned, consider yourself fucked. if you are town, you better start working with me (and maybe our joint town reads?) and we can take down the mafia together. got it?
good. 
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on mobile, so bear with me.
trfel, your case is terrible.
(1) I read in and around EoD, not "not at all" like you claim to get some preliminary starting points. Even the quote you quoted me to says that.
(2) in last game, you stood up to geript, but you pushed scott, cased him and got him lynched (I mean if that's not an easy lynch then I don't know what is based on his lack of activity) and you tried to get fecalfeast lynched last game for bad reasons. it's a known thing that moosy is difficult to read, even if you think he's harder to lynch from your perspective because you think he's harder to read, you fail to take the game opinion in perspective here, several people from what I could tell post-lynch were willing to policy lynch him or remove him for different reasons, or at least there was some wagon on him prior to the switch. this is no different from the last game. people were scared of that self-meta shit or him playing against his wincon. the guy pulled bullshit that got him modkilled and banned in newbie 13. should it really surprise you that people want to lynch him regardless of alignment?
the way you phrase things looks opportunistic to me at first glance but like I said I will read in full for the complete picture. I even said the same thing for what I saw of Palmar's posts. looked bad to me at first glance, so I want to see how his stance came about.
as for my tone, I'm excited to replace into a town slot, was at the end of the work night so I was a bit moody just spouted off what was on my mind, if you can't accept that, fine. I was shadowing in haunted mansion game, saw I had a few PMs and realised I needed to replace in this game, and with dani, an obvious bonus. I was put in right after end of cycle, you people lynched a blue, so that's going to be the first place to check for anything that seemed off for me. I had maybe a few minutes on mobile to skim around end of cycle, get a few basics for myself on where to start.
how you frame me as sure mafia is baffling honestly.
separate from the game, you suggested hts has a cold, I'm sorry to say she's doing a lot worse than you think, but I won't talk about it further unless she brings it up herself in thread or for whatever reason gives me permission to do it outside this game. that said, she'll get better, but she has a few things to sort out, and I'll leave it at that.
will start reading from the beginning of the thread within the next hour, let's see what I can find.
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I've read about 21 pages so far, plus three individual filters.
I think I have a very good idea who two of the mafia are.
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##vote Half the Sky
I am also pretty sure Fidei is mafia because he is playing nothing like his previous games, but I am so confident in Dani being mafia I am willing to get mislynched to prove my point. This is part meta, part (anti-)personality, part voting analysis (her end of cycle behaviour was really bad), and part psychological (motive-based). I'll try and put together a case as best as I can though so that you can understand it.
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Also I'm not particularly digging Palmar, a lot of his reads seem to be coming out of nowhere. or rather except for his first case where he's tunnelling Shining it seemed like to me he was driving things beyond reason. I just can't follow him in general.
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On December 04 2015 08:39 Fidei86 wrote:
I'm not scum. One thing I was thinking is that I actually pinged Dani out a while ago for the same sort of thing Alex is saying now. That's not to say that scum can't bus a little ... Obviously I didn't push Dani that hard. But if Alex agreed with my reasoning, surely it makes me unlikely to be her scum buddy?
Also if I was scum I would 100% have shot Dani. Gameplay regardless, scum Fidei shoots HTS n1 every game. Every time. So there's that.
No. This is false. Soft pushing is an indicator that you are likely mafia if/when she flips. You didn't go anywhere. She is my first priority but you're next after her
Also last point is false, you endgamed her once, so no you didn't. That's a terrible metric anyhow as nightkills are generally team decisions.
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I also don't like Trfels turning around on this either.
What the hell are we using WIFOM arguments for?
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On December 04 2015 09:03 DoYouHas wrote:
BTW, this is the second time everyone ends up agreeing with me and I'm still on most of the scumlists. -_-
I'm not scumreading you. :/
I can't speak for everyone else.
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On December 04 2015 08:55 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM. The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped. The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it.
I see what you are saying here but there are people here saying she is town for that, and there are proven cases of her doing this as town when she doesn't have an alternative scumread. She has mislynched people as town/town-oriented third party trying to do stuff like this. The problem is where she actually goes and why. She would have mislynched LS if it was in her best interest to mislynch him, the reason she went to kush is because kush was scumreading her.
This is what I was saying before, she has a track record of wanting to kill people who want her dead. The reason I asked you before what her role was in the lynch is because generally her play as mafia is to do one of two things - make a bunch of cases and do nothing with it, or ferret people and do nothing with it, or she WILL push someone but she won't do it until ridiculously close to end of cycle.
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Also people making the argument that she is town because she is tryharding, just no. Hell no.
Daniele plays to win as either alignment. Period. She has been sick before and has fought for wincon as either alignment. As town, as mafia, as third party, end of.
Her first mafia game, she passed out d1 (not playing mafia but for other reasons), and went on to carry the scumteam.
Her second mafia game, she got food poisoning d1 and her team won after she was able to get a few people lynched.
In Personality Mafia (town), she had to take breaks during end of cycle trying to get her scumreads off, and she did, she was killed night 1, but she got off some great reads that resulted in the subsequent deaths of those she was scumreading.
In her second town game - Carol - she was jailkeeper and she had a lot of real life issues that game. She brought home the game with a well timed claim despite the mafia tryharding to get her mislynched.
Don't townread anyone regardless of anything happening out of game to them.
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On December 04 2015 08:59 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:55 DoYouHas wrote:On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM. The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped. The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it. Heh, that actually makes a lot more sense than my point. Damn. What was HTS' read of Kush before EOD *goes to filter*
She was scumreading him, I went to that too, they were both scumreading each other. In theory, the move doesn't look bad, because she can always say that she was going to vote a scumread. But see, that's the thing. it's because kush is scumreading her, and she eliminates a thread. She looks good, and escapes culpability (is that a word?)
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EBWOP - She eliminates a threat.
fuck it I don't think culpability is a word, but I meant to say she escapes potential blame for the mislynch.
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On December 04 2015 09:17 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:10 NocturneMage wrote:On December 04 2015 08:55 DoYouHas wrote:On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM. The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped. The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it. I see what you are saying here but there are people here saying she is town for that, and there are proven cases of her doing this as town when she doesn't have an alternative scumread. She has mislynched people as town/town-oriented third party trying to do stuff like this. The problem is where she actually goes and why. She would have mislynched LS if it was in her best interest to mislynch him, the reason she went to kush is because kush was scumreading her. This is what I was saying before, she has a track record of wanting to kill people who want her dead. The reason I asked you before what her role was in the lynch is because generally her play as mafia is to do one of two things - make a bunch of cases and do nothing with it, or ferret people and do nothing with it, or she WILL push someone but she won't do it until ridiculously close to end of cycle. One thing I did find interesting about her switch from LS to kush was her pinning it on me. Arguably yes, I was the one who started that shenanny onto kush but I wasn't the first one to bring it up. Fidei was. But when she did it, she posted "Done, Shining" as if to absolve herself of a potential ML and pin it on me, when Fidei suggested it first. Why didn't she(or anyone else, for that matter) refer to Fidei instead of me during that shenanny? I'll have to go reread EoD now, too.
Because she and Fidei are both scum?
Alright, seriously I didn't even catch that, but that lends more credibility to a Fidei/HTS scumteam.
I am really liking this now.
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On December 04 2015 09:21 Fidei86 wrote:
Alex I have two questions for you. One of them is unfair, but I'll let you beat me at RL Mafia to make it up to you.
1. What is your case on Dani? Because I personally find it extremely weird that you come into the thread with a "100% Dani is Mafia" read, but don't really flesh it out. The first thing you said substantively was basically copied from someone else. In Resistance V your read on her was spot on, and it was quick and to the point. Ditto on your reads when we played together in Newbie - the Fidei throw edition. The more you go on, the more it sort of seems like you're trying to get her lynched because she might correctly read you.
2. I don't think it's likely that Dani would intentionally play up being ill to win a game. She has certainly liberally sprinkled Og knowledge in game before. But here it seems like pretty much every other post she makes references it. I really hope she gets well soon (<3) but is it possible she is subconsciously playing it up to win sympathy?
Regarding (1) I did not have a read on her, but when I entered the thread, it was RIGHT AFTER DYH posted his thing on Kush. When I saw that, the first thing that leapt to my mind was her scumgames, and that gave me the first clue, because nearly every time she tries to eliminate in some way someone who knows her well, or could get her down late game or whatever, she does a sneaky job of trying to eliminate them. I did not have a read on her.
My case was based on four things - meta, which I just described. To sum up the personality argument, she is a quant-type and very analytical person. That was lacking in some of her decision making, even with the shallower stuff you might see some sort of pro/con type comparison, the motives I also explained I think in my last two posts and the voting part was her vote on kush who would be more of a threat to her than LS as he called her out most blatantly day 1.
(2) No. She has made a lot of RL excuses before, and Resistance it was work related. She was abroad. She does not lie about whatever she is doing and I would argue what she is dealing with right now is bad enough I am a little surprised she hasn't left the game, but I think I can fathom to what extent why she hasn't left the game and it's not because of her alignment or her status in this game period.
I'll give you a hint, she is a long-distance runner. If you know why she is involved in that, she qualified for Boston last April actually, and you can think a modicum outside the box, you might be able to understand what I am referencing to.
I do not want to get too personal with this, and I strongly suggest you talk to her when you play dota with her because what she is dealing with right now is really really terrible. This is the worst it has been in the last three years.
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On December 04 2015 09:24 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:10 NocturneMage wrote:On December 04 2015 08:55 DoYouHas wrote:On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM. The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped. The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it. I see what you are saying here but there are people here saying she is town for that, and there are proven cases of her doing this as town when she doesn't have an alternative scumread. She has mislynched people as town/town-oriented third party trying to do stuff like this. The problem is where she actually goes and why. She would have mislynched LS if it was in her best interest to mislynch him, the reason she went to kush is because kush was scumreading her. This is what I was saying before, she has a track record of wanting to kill people who want her dead. The reason I asked you before what her role was in the lynch is because generally her play as mafia is to do one of two things - make a bunch of cases and do nothing with it, or ferret people and do nothing with it, or she WILL push someone but she won't do it until ridiculously close to end of cycle. I feel like we are arguing semantics but I want to be right about this. -She does have alternative scumreads as well as a perfectly good policy lynch in moosy as options. -It is in her best interest to lynch him, because she was positioning for a townflip Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:35 Half the Sky wrote:
Shining - checking the Drams filter then. I think he was in school at that time so that should normalise for his being afk.
.....and this is why I stated he had 30 minutes to talk to us. Or whatever I said, it's more than enough time to discuss and run an alternate lynch. He does freak out at the slightest bit of pressure and he claims prematurely when he's blue, here he claimed VT though. Paraphrasing, "I'm giving him plenty of time to convince me otherwise, not my fault, I'm reasonable with the person I'm lynching"
She would have positioned for a townflip either way....so you are still right.
I'm not fighting you at all DYH, but if you are so convinced she's mafia, why don't you vote her with me?
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On December 04 2015 09:33 Trfel wrote:
Just realized, NocturneMage would definitely bus Half the Sky here.
So yeah, I really don't know about NocturneMage but for now I think that lynching Half the Sky is better.
Are you out of your bloody mind?
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Okay seriously, go ahead and lynch me. I truly don't give a fuck.
Just allow me to find the other two mafia first before you kill me.
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On December 04 2015 09:34 Fidei86 wrote:
Okay. Happy to take you at your word re 2. Sorry for suggesting it. I really hope she gets well soon, please do pass on all of our regards...<3
You have no idea, I really hope she does too.
Much appreciated James.
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On December 04 2015 09:36 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:34 NocturneMage wrote:
Okay seriously, go ahead and lynch me. I truly don't give a fuck.
Just allow me to find the other two mafia first before you kill me. Nobody is talking about lynching you. I wanted to probe your thoughts a little bit, because your writing so far has been a little less ... I don't know, maybe dispassionate? Insightful? I just have never seen you go after a lynch with such abandon before. And if you don't like my reasons for pushing you a little bit, then please do scum read me. But hopefully you'll see them for what they are.
That was in response to Trfel, not you. Trfel is either insane or mafia but I'll have some time to figure him out I think.
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The LS filter is trash but the main argument I'm reading is that could he have intentionally tried that? Someone was saying he was getting coaching from the mafia QT on that shit?
I think he has enough games he could pull it off?
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On December 04 2015 09:44 Fidei86 wrote:
I've flipped on Trfel btw because he has basically 100% scum read half the game so far, and his super in depth reads change every time, whenever someone makes the most off-hand points.
I'd lynch him last though, 1. because he could be erratic town and 2. I'd feel horrible if we mislynched him, given how much work he has put into the game (that's actually a crap reason, but there we go).
check out newbie 11...he's capable of such as mafia.
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On December 04 2015 09:46 LightningStrike wrote:
I will admit I do have some WIFOM knowledge but I would of shot Tfrel or HTS if I was scum just because of meta.
HOLY SHIT PEOPLE WILL YOU JUST STOP WITH THE META??!?!?!?!?!?!??
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well to be fair, part of my argument on HTS is based on meta, but at least I'm trying to make what I'm saying sort of relevant to this game.
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EBWOP - Actually that post from LS is bad (1080) because it is self-meta. Still.
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On December 04 2015 09:56 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:51 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 04 2015 09:48 LightningStrike wrote:On December 04 2015 09:44 Fecalfeast wrote:
So basically you all have 3.25 hours with the great mind of fecalfeast before he goes home and accidentally plays fallout until 5am without making dinner.
I'm not going to read the thread from the start so someone make me do something because work is boring as fuck Why you have to be lazy feast right now  + Show Spoiler +We had MD into DYH/Me as the main wagons until we shannied to Kush because of his over explanation for voting me lol.... [active game] took a lot of my energy and playing as town makes me less worried about doing enough work to look good lol What do you think of the shenanigan? fidei/shining/palmar/hts were all early switchers with the first two being instigators. Have you weighed in on that? I honestly think it happened because kush's post regarding his reason to lynch me rubbed everyone the wrong way due to over explanation from his part. HTS felt like it the lynch on me was weird if I remember what her thoughts was before her switch. Palmar didn't like kush's comment hence why he went to kush. Shining rather had lynched Kush at the time over me. James what he did he say again about kush(will reread his filter soon).
Okay, this is just dumb.
How are you saying overexplanation? I had a huge problem with Palmar saying the same thing about Kush actually because his argument about you using shitty meta was quite valid. Or at the very least meta that is very hard to understand the basis for your reads for even if it is valid. It was a valid argument and I don't even recall that argument being very wordy.
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bah fuck it's 1am...let me try and bang out this case on dani since some people here aren't convinced.
ALSO LS, for the love of everything good, do you have any bloody scumreads? or conclusions? I mean, seriously any?!?!!?!??!?!?
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On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM.
Oh wow, I missed this, considering how utter shit tier LS's filter is, and seeing something like this, you might not be as mafia as I think you are.
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On December 04 2015 10:24 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 10:17 NocturneMage wrote:
bah fuck it's 1am...let me try and bang out this case on dani since some people here aren't convinced.
ALSO LS, for the love of everything good, do you have any bloody scumreads? or conclusions? I mean, seriously any?!?!!?!??!?!? Mafia had a field day most likely at EoD prob laughed there asses off when kush flipped boxer. Anyways time to pick FF's brain a little bit. @FFWhat your thoughts on regarding the shannies regarding the people you had asked me about?
no shit??????????
you are basically saying that Moosy (now myself) is town - duh, thank you for telling me something I didn't already know
you are saying that kush is town - duh, he flipped, again, thank you for telling me something I didn't already know
you are saying that you are town, which you have to do as either alignment.
so what are you telling me about the other players?
.................................
do you understand why I'm having trouble thinking that you are town?
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I don't ever recall playing with you.
And you still aren't answering the question. Who are your scumreads? Names, reasons. let's go.
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On December 04 2015 10:34 disformation wrote:Ah actually, upon looking at DYH again... Let me bring up Rels case again. Cause it got kinda lost in the forest. Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 20:19 Rels wrote:DoYouHas is probably scum: a solid case1. Agreeing to a setup idea that is benefit to scum; without being the first to propose itTalking about this post: On December 01 2015 08:27 Damdred wrote:
Firstly for the roles, nobody should talk about this besides an opinion going forward, if you are a named towny you should claim asap, it narrows down the pool that we lynch from and also gives us more to work with. however if you are the Vet do not claim unless absolutely necessary. If you are shot claim if you aren't shut the hell up. After you use your power claim straight away your findings if you are one shot obviously do not pussy foot away and give mafia the ability to cause town to second guess you. As such thank you for your time in reading this.
On December 01 2015 08:32 DoYouHas wrote:
I second the immediate claim by a boxer if we have one. boxer claiming is (was =X ) bad for town 50% of the time, so this post pushes a scum advantage. Furthermore, he's agreeing with Damdred on that, not taking responsability for the idea. 2. His Trfel's read makes no senseAlready explained here: On December 01 2015 22:22 Rels wrote:I don't like that progression from DoYouHas. On December 01 2015 08:57 DoYouHas wrote:On December 01 2015 08:50 Trfel wrote:On December 01 2015 08:47 Damdred wrote:On December 01 2015 08:44 Trfel wrote:
Hm, LightningStrike hasn't posted at all yet. Very suspicious, I would have expected him to be really excited for this game since he hasn't played in a while.
Disformation, why are you only bringing up Damdred's post now, and not right when he posted it? Trfel might be mafia since LS clearly posted in the thread why he wouldn't be here till later. Interesting... Okay, what the heck. First of all, if you think about it for a second, you can probably see what I was trying to do. You may not agree with my method, but you know me well enough to see it. Second, why would does this make me mafia in any way? Like, why does the fact that LightningStrike posted that he wouldn't be here at the start of the game have any bearing on my alignment? I assumed your post was a bit of a joke. Reconsidering with how fast you jumped on the defensive here. "Trfel you might be scum." 2 posts later: On December 01 2015 08:57 Damdred wrote:
You are an idiot but you are most likely town.
If you can't explain in a coherent way why I am mafia then obviously I am not. Damdred: "Trfel is most likely town." 1 post later: On December 01 2015 09:00 DoYouHas wrote:
I'm pretty happy with Damdred atm. With the exception of one point in his first post I feel like I've got the mind meld going with him... for now.
TLDR: you crazy trfel "Trfel you're crazy." So Trfel is considered town here. It doesn't add up. ##Vote DoYouHas 3. A total apathy towards the lynchHere are the two posts DYH made after coming back to EOD: On December 03 2015 07:01 DoYouHas wrote:
Catching up now.
I can't see any scum motivation behind Trfel's hard defending of me. It doesn't even look like positioning for my flip is even really a possibility here. I was going after him, voted him, thread sentiment is against me. I'm an easy EASY person for scum trfel to keep the heat on. That he ran the other direction when there is no reason to as mafia is major town points in my book. Unvoting. On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is. DYH just didn't care about the lynch. The third post was only made after I tried to get people to vote him. Furthermore, disfo bought a really good point about sheeping his "townreads": On December 03 2015 08:15 disformation wrote:On December 03 2015 08:12 Rels wrote:
I try to shenanni on DYH and nothing happens.
fidei says something about kush and everybody switches.
fuck that I should have yelled Wanted to switch to DYH, but decided to go into his filter and make a post... I kinda want to restate that post, because I think he would be a good lynch so: His reason for voting LS: On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is. Last mention of me in his filter: On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels. So I am kinda asking myself where he got that magical TR on me from... Taking a break now. ConclusionIf we have a vig, you know who to shoot.
I don't have a definitive read on Rels yet, but are you suggesting that DYH is bussing HTS for cred? I'm saying this because he's called her out for near identical (and obviously less personal but still just as valid) reasons that I know she is mafia. Then again nearly everyone was scumreading him?
Meh I wasn't halfway through the thread when I started breaking on Dani, but what makes you think this?
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On December 04 2015 10:36 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 10:31 NocturneMage wrote:
I don't ever recall playing with you.
And you still aren't answering the question. Who are your scumreads? Names, reasons. let's go. Idk I'll be blunt on that. Maybe DYH if I wrong on him.
So both you and disformation (confirm?) think DYH is bussing HTS?
well answer for yourself...why? in your own words, why?
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EBWOP - or do you not think HTS is scum and you think he's mislynching her? either way what is making him mafia?
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On December 04 2015 10:41 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 10:39 NocturneMage wrote:On December 04 2015 10:36 LightningStrike wrote:On December 04 2015 10:31 NocturneMage wrote:
I don't ever recall playing with you.
And you still aren't answering the question. Who are your scumreads? Names, reasons. let's go. Idk I'll be blunt on that. Maybe DYH if I wrong on him. So both you and disformation (confirm?) think DYH is bussing HTS? well answer for yourself...why? in your own words, why? Hold your horses I didn't say HTS is scum :o If I wrong on DYH it's because I thought he was a newbie and Rels case seems okay but not really enough to convince me to vote him right now.
????????????????????????????????
yeah that was from my POV that HTS is scum, because I'm >99% sure she's mafia, but if you don't think she is...
that's a horrible answer though, how is him being a newbie alignment indicative? Why couldn't a newbie try and get someone mislynched, why couldn't Rels make a case on any player of that experience?
I have zero clue what you are trying to say here.
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well shit, if you want to make the argument someone is bussing hts and needs the cred, I can see that from a generic standpoint, you had blazinghand in vanilla mafia who pulled that shit off with onegu and people were townreading him for no reason and then damn moosydoosy swindled all of us in newbie 14 by bussing his damn roleblocker all game because he was being scumread by the town leaders in rayn/yamato d1, so, situationally that is plausible.
nothing looked off from the filter but guess I'll re-read in context?
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On December 04 2015 10:49 LightningStrike wrote:
Anyways who should we lynch outside of me and HTS and why NM?
I'm looking at Fidei and Trfel mainly, Fidei is a combination of association between HTS and overall gameplay and Trfel's constant usage of terrible points to case people just reminds me of his scumgames, but granted, if HTS is one scummer, I have too many people here so obviously I'm wrong on someone.
And there's still others I haven't looked at that I could potentially just be missing or way off target with.
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On December 04 2015 10:56 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 10:51 The Shining wrote:On December 04 2015 10:49 LightningStrike wrote:
Anyways who should we lynch outside of me and HTS and why NM? I'll ask again. So you think HTS is town, I presume? Why? What makes HTS town in your eyes? I have her null. Like sure she had some weird stuff regarding me and other people but I think it will be easier to get read on her if she is in better health. The HTS I remember when she scum is she hates people trying to lynch her and will look for a lynch that will save her unless her team wants to bus her.
are you shitting me???????
THIS IS WHAT SHE HAS DONE IN ALL HER SCUMGAMES, GET OFF LYNCHES THAT PUT HER TO THE GREATEST ADVANTAGE.
SHE HAS HAD TWO SCUMGAMES WHERE DESPITE ILLNESS SHE ENDGAMED TOWN!!!!!!
WHAT PART OF THIS ARGUMENT DON'T YOU UNDERSTAND??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
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And this coming from someone who is using meta all the time in his arguments?
The more I converse with you the more I think you might be mafia.
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for emphasis LS
On December 04 2015 09:15 NocturneMage wrote:
Also people making the argument that she is town because she is tryharding, just no. Hell no.
Daniele plays to win as either alignment. Period. She has been sick before and has fought for wincon as either alignment. As town, as mafia, as third party, end of.
Her first mafia game, she passed out d1 (not playing mafia but for other reasons), and went on to carry the scumteam.
Her second mafia game, she got food poisoning d1 and her team won after she was able to get a few people lynched.
In Personality Mafia (town), she had to take breaks during end of cycle trying to get her scumreads off, and she did, she was killed night 1, but she got off some great reads that resulted in the subsequent deaths of those she was scumreading.
In her second town game - Carol - she was jailkeeper and she had a lot of real life issues that game. She brought home the game with a well timed claim despite the mafia tryharding to get her mislynched.
Don't townread anyone regardless of anything happening out of game to them.
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On December 04 2015 11:07 Trfel wrote:
I'm on a phone and can't read the thread atm but I kind of think both NM and HTS are scum right now.
LOL? why?
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On December 04 2015 11:09 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote:On December 04 2015 11:07 Trfel wrote:
I'm on a phone and can't read the thread atm but I kind of think both NM and HTS are scum right now. LOL? why? He thought MD was scum therefore by default you are scum according to his logic
the better question is why he thinks I'm bussing HTS.
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On December 04 2015 11:13 LightningStrike wrote:
BTW if anyone is wondering I do think NM is town based on my interactions with him and Tfrel is just tunneled on him.
so do you think Dani is still town?
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On December 04 2015 11:15 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 11:13 LightningStrike wrote:
BTW if anyone is wondering I do think NM is town based on my interactions with him and Tfrel is just tunneled on him. so do you think Dani is still town?
disregard - I saw post 1139. You're at null for her.
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On December 04 2015 11:19 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 11:14 NocturneMage wrote:On December 04 2015 11:09 LightningStrike wrote:On December 04 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote:On December 04 2015 11:07 Trfel wrote:
I'm on a phone and can't read the thread atm but I kind of think both NM and HTS are scum right now. LOL? why? He thought MD was scum therefore by default you are scum according to his logic the better question is why he thinks I'm bussing HTS. Why not ask him yourself?
I already did?
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never got to what I needed to but it's almost 2:30am. good night.
possible scum: fidei, ls, trfel
re-examine: dyh (he's mafia and/or bussing), palmar
lynching her with fire: half the scum
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ebwop (dyh - IS he mafia and/or bussing?)
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There is not a snowball's chance in hell Daniele is town. Just vote her and be done with it. I'm on page 25 and I'm trying to fully catch up between seminars here.
Trfel is either mafia or insane and I'm leaning towards Mafia. Does a Trfel/HTS team make sense, that is another question.
LS is mafia because his filter is trash and knowing that mafia HTS modconfirmed herself in her first student game (as town) and knowing firsthand the quality of her coaching and knowing how intelligent she is (both in game and in life) it is EXTREMELY LIKELY she coached him to modconfirm himself.
There is a reasonable basis I think in the votes, I know I previously looked at HTS position from town LS but it's just as likely with Mafia LS, she would have been one of the last on LS which indicates a bus.
Like I said she is a weasel as mafia, she motivates her teammates she will absolutely coach LS to pull that shit - she did it herself.
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Just put Daniele out of her misery. Why are people (besides Trfel) making this difficult on themselves, fuck if I knew.
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LS you are in the same boat as her you are doing dick all this game. Dick all.
I asked you and so did Shining for reads, anything to sort your alignment and the only thing either of us got last night was a bunch of non alignment indicative bullshit that got us nowhere.
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To be honest she isn't going to post at all today, so for those of you looking at HTS do not eval her on being afk. Earliest she will return to anything TL is probably tomorrow and she's hosting a game in progress I think?
She is getting slightly better but she is putting herself first.
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On December 04 2015 23:21 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM. The deadline thing is great. LS is almost confirmed town.
No. I thought this at first but I have a reasonable argument against this. I realise it is pre flip association but this becomes more critical once Dani flips.
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James your analysis of me is spot on but you know her and my knowledge of her well enough (based on how much time you two play dota together, sigh fuck dota seriously) that what you are saying can come from either alignment.
At least I'm lynching a dota player today
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I have another seminar right now so I'll be back. I'm on mobile for awhile today.
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There was quite a bit of discussion regarding DYH bussing HTS - he has voted her. I would analyse how he approached the discussion prior to him voting her.
I had to prompt him to actually vote her, that is about the only thing that I can call into question how much he believed in voting her.
Tbf I saw his shit right as I replaced in. His arguments were similar if not identical to mine, mine were based more on out of game information and some meta/prior game understanding of her.
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I also heavily believe LS is Mafia. He's going out after Dani.
If Dani flips town, I am giving her my next two weeks' salary and I'll take a mislynch because I am that fucking bad at understanding someone I know extremely well in real life.
There is zero fucking chance she is town. Zero.
Rels, I can understand you being hesitant because I'm not being "analytical" but this is HTS we are talking about here. She is a weasel when she is Mafia.
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On December 05 2015 00:21 LightningStrike wrote:
Do I need to die for your sins james?
No one is sinning here. This is not a moral argument. This is a logical argument.
What are you trying to tell us with meta? You aren't doing dick all with a list of links.
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On December 05 2015 00:30 LightningStrike wrote:NM read my past games please? It will make you understand me as a player better O_o I had linked you some of my past games(including all my scum games):
This does not answer my fundamental concern. HTS is a fucking fantastic motivator of coachees as either alignment and when she is mafia it is FUCKING PROVEN SHE MOTIVATES TEAMMATES TO VICTORY REGARDLESS OF TRACK RECORD AS MAFIA. She uses whiskey, she has leadership to pull her teammates together.
In her first scum game her roleblocker almost crashed out. She spent fucking 2 hours in QT keeping him in the game and carried her team. In her most previous game as Mafia, she replaces in and immediately comes with a plan for her remaining scummate (they lost a scummer day one) who from my understanding reading that game and respective scum qt (when I was Mafia in newbie 13) is generally a poor scum player.
You and her from what I can tell generally have a very good relationship with each other. Therefore my argument of her being able to motivate ANYONE is valid.
Even so there is a shittonne of evidence outside her meta that indicates you are mafia.
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and 2/3s of LS' post is (poorly explained) meta. Someone kill me please. And I see Rels is shooting part of that down already.
Why is Palmar town in your own words?
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On December 05 2015 00:48 LightningStrike wrote:
What if I told you I am town and flip town?
You can do that as either alignment. You haven't done dick all to show you are town.
If you flip town then I'll probably look into Fidei/DYH/possible bussers but not before I read the rest of the thread.
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On December 05 2015 00:48 Fidei86 wrote:
Alex is there anything at all that gives you pause on your read of Dani?
From a personal viewpoint? No.
From a gameplay standpoint? No. I've tried my best here to gauge her using as parallel situation as possible from both alignments. I have no understanding of how Rels fails to see how my thinking isn't analytical but I guess I can't win with everyone.
I obviously learnt from newbie 14 I can't convince people for shit and this is my first non-newbie game so it looks like I have a ways to go on this.
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On December 05 2015 00:56 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 00:54 NocturneMage wrote:On December 05 2015 00:48 LightningStrike wrote:
What if I told you I am town and flip town? You can do that as either alignment. You haven't done dick all to show you are town. If you flip town then I'll probably look into Fidei/DYH/possible bussers but not before I read the rest of the thread. What about Trfel ? Palmar ?
Those too. Obviously not leaving anyone out. I'm just thinking most likely but I had to look into question whether a Trfel/HTS scumteam made sense. At the very least he's townread her for bad reasons.
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I am stepping away from the game again.
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Rels my apologies, I did not see you had voted for Dani. I retract what I said about you not understanding me.
I felt I was approaching asshole territory so I stepped away.
Going to try and finish reading the thread when I get home.
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On December 05 2015 01:19 disformation wrote:
I think HtS is null at best.
Since NM is starting to gain a bunch of townie brownies and I believe that his read on HtS is godtier, HtS has a pretty high chance of flipping scum.
????????????????????????
This seems contradictory?
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And you Rels also agree with me that Trfel is (likely) mafia as well, is there a case on him, and if so, what page?
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On December 05 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:
And you Rels also agree with me that Trfel is (likely) mafia as well, is there a case on him, and if so, what page?
EBWOP - Rels, why is Palmar town?
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deadline is tomorrow at 23 GMT.
back to catching up. also love how scum Trfel is taking my argument out of context in post 1287, the coaching very likely would have existed through the end of cycle day 1, HTS is capable of giving advice beyond her participation (as in general coaching and/or motivation a good example is the whole whisky bullshit, it's just automatic after the first mislynch) and with the exception of LS's list post, his gameplay has still been mafia motivated, not giving reads, not really pushing anyone (except scumming Trfel and then dropping it) and then when I try to discuss HTS, he's like saying the exact same reason I'm voting her and then having her as null, it's basically saying he's not committing to something and I know last he was townreading me, don't recall him saying "NM is town but wrong on HTS" or taking stances that some of us can easily flesh out, aside from that list post.
also saying my mafia play is like his in post 1301/1308 is just bad. town should be confident in their reads if they want to push lynches, I mean look at rayn (my exp from newbie 14), he just sauntered about, cursing about probably worse than I have as he tried to push his lynches, you have Shining this game whose tone comes off the same way - not quite as emotional or off-putting, but pretty straightforward, the holy crusade largely comes from me vs Dani, that is more personal than anything and at worst should not be alignment indicative, if you meant my intro I already explained that to Rels and it's somewhere in my filter.
tldr - comparing me to you in post 1301 is just a poor argument and you're finding bad excuses for scumreads just like you did with my predecessor.
resuming from page 25.
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ebwop - ls not taking many stances is mafia motivated because when he flips we can't sort out his teammates (or assuming an LS/HTS/+1 team) the final teammate.
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Shining is almost certainly town (just skimmed his filter), about as straightforward as it gets. The questions to LS/Trfel are spot on as it comes and the reasoning flows. Definite strong town read for me.
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disformation is also probably town, gameplay is similar to the last, read development is mostly there at least on his key reads. Not seeing anything off voting-wise.
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hang on a second, why are you townreading ls?
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congratulations on missing the part where I said I'm reading from page 25. if you are trolling me you are doing a great job of it.
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also trfel, if you think hts and I are a team, who is the third?
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Checking end of cycle or close to it...
On December 03 2015 06:44 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 06:40 Trfel wrote:
Palmar, take a look at LightningStrike, but I'm not sure that I would trust Damdred.
If you avoid lynching MoosyDoosy because Damdred said so, I'll be extremely displeased. No, it's more of an internal fight. I have two conflicting goals and I don't know how to proceed. 1) I want to lynch useless shit people just because I don't want to play with them. vs 2) I want to actually win the game so it's technically better to pray these baddies get shot or checked while trying to lynch mafia. I do not believe your case for Moosy being mafia. I think it doesn't say much about his alignment. His filter is terrible, but it's not mafia terrible, at least not to me. It's just plain terrible. I will, however, look at LS like damdy asked me to.
This post strikes me as towny, he is laying his agenda out there but then here he goes later:
On December 03 2015 07:54 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:53 Rels wrote:On December 03 2015 07:51 Palmar wrote:On December 03 2015 07:10 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 07:04 Palmar wrote:
Do people like... ever... build good cases anymore? Palmar, you're not doing anything yourself, so you're going to have to stop this. Remember in Mini Mafia Down Under 2? We had a really good case and push against Alakaslam and you ruined it for a policy lynch. I realize that you're extremely talented and one of the best players on the site, but it's still possible that once in a while, someone else knows something that you don't (and just because they can't explain it well doesn't invalidate this). You don't need to attack me as well. I know this?? That's exactly why, I know that currently I don't have a lot of good ideas, and damdred's idea looks like a decent one so I'm just gonna roll with that. You said "DYH is a good lynch". DYH made two posts since: On December 03 2015 07:01 DoYouHas wrote:
Catching up now.
I can't see any scum motivation behind Trfel's hard defending of me. It doesn't even look like positioning for my flip is even really a possibility here. I was going after him, voted him, thread sentiment is against me. I'm an easy EASY person for scum trfel to keep the heat on. That he ran the other direction when there is no reason to as mafia is major town points in my book. Unvoting. On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS Thoughts ?? I also said I misread one of his posts. I don't really care. LS is a fine lynch. DYH is being shit, but so are multiple other players.
So that post and "I have no good reason to call LS town, so fuck it" and then that follows into the post where he said that kushmasta scumreading LS for shitty meta (or similar) was overexplanation, and (1) I disagreed with the reason and (2) I can't understand his move to kush when kush echoed a reason that, given Palmar's previous comments about LS, should have IMO resonated with Palmar.
I cannot grasp at all between posts 728 and 738 why he switched the votes the way he did. that still looks really bad.
posts after list posts and deciding to lynch hts because of his read on me and the whole sexy filter thing just come off as lazy town, like he's taking some sort of shortcut without reading the filter.
then palmar says the overthinking possibly suspiciously? I don't understand where there was a basis to suggest Fidei's last response as possibly mafia motivated.
overall, tough call. end of cycle voting looks really bad but looking hard at timestamps when he switched (2 minutes) he could have flubbed because he might have been lazy. I disagree that his progression is easy to follow though.
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does anyone have a good metric for reading palmar, or was such previously posted? never played with him don't really understand his approaches aside from maybe wanting to policy lynch day 1.
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On December 05 2015 08:27 Fecalfeast wrote:I think the fidei palmar interaction has palmar looking towny while fidei came out looking a little worse to me. One thing I remember that I'll dig up is Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 22:59 Palmar wrote:
You're overthinking (possibly suspiciously?)
You said it best yourself, now we kill hts. Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 23:02 Fidei86 wrote:
Lets leave it there and see what everyone else has to say. Don't want to hijack the thread totally. Which looks a little too much like he's trying to avoid palmar expanding further on his possible suspicions and/or not wanting to slip up and further those suspicions.
didn't fidei say something along the lines of not wanting to spam the thread? could work in paralle with hijacking the thread? although I can see where you are coming from, I just remembered fidei's first post. he doesn't seem to like spam.
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regarding hts, she is mostly on bed rest, she might play maybe one game of dota to get her mind off things. again, not getting too personal, I think first sentence should tell you enough.
she'll return appropriately EU time, those concerned for her outside the game please take it to PM/dota land (and obviously don't discuss the game) I know she's uncomfortable discussing her personal life in the thread (in most cases).
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ebwop - I know she's generally uncomfortable discussing her personal life
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Rels is looking very good to me through page 45. I don't agree with PART of the DYH case (#1 I think isn't alignment indicative, otherwise the case looks pretty good) and I don't agree with the LS read, it looks like he's basing part of that read on meta and someone else's meta read ("angry LS is town LS") and then the modconfirmation,
He is also struggling with Palmar as I am too.
I'm going to stop here, going to make a little something for a special someone and probably play a little League.
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Taking a look at LS's latest bit of reads to see if they are actually "better" or moving the game forward. I'm going to pretend for a second he might be a townie who is smoking a bit too much weed/insane/whatever and I'm going to ignore any meta he brings up.
(I'm also going to pretend that HTS doesn't exist in this game, except for his read, for a second since I've drawn a lot of association betwen the two.)
Palmar - he could have just stopped with push on Shining, It's an incomplete read at best or him townreading Palmar for entirely the wrong reasons. end of day I realise is a clusterfuck but Palmar's end of day play has jumped at a few people. In a previous response, LS did say to me that he did help build the direction on kush, granted though I heavily disagreed with that reason being towny. the reason he told me again was overexplanation which a) was parroting palmar and b) that explanation wasn't that wordy, and not even scummy.
FF - that read I don't know if it's semantics "lazy FF means no agenda FF" or "lazy FF means give no fucks FF" or whatever or just that he cannot be arsed to solve the game, well you could argue that for scum but him asking FF to do more work also makes no sense here - if he's that sure in meta land that lazy FF is town FF then asking him to do work would put him where? he's already town? what is the purpose of that read? it's posting just to post.
Rels - going to stop after the word "little" since everything after that is (yawn) meta. Case on FYH might be "good" yeah but does he make an easy townread like others might have agreed on or was it just an honest conclusion?
Shining - this is largely the same conclusion I came to. Other people came to it well before obviously. I can see both sides. Scum LS would just copy this read from others who have determined it, and town LS would have done like me and read his filter and come to the same thing.
Trfel - don't like this read either. Last game, with scummy cases on Fecalfeast and Scott, the same tone was there, in LS' defence he might not be as informed. Did any of his play from day 1 having any bearing or re-evaluation?
The read on me - again, parroting or honest conclusion? "he's not as analytical" - okay fine, ignore my read on HTS, what about my reads now on other people?
HTS - so content is questionable? what content was questionable? did he probe her on anything? did he do anything about it? knowing the people pushing hts - fidei (at least softly?), dyh, myself, alright none of them are particularly high on his totem pole, great. But why isn't he taking the lead to find that out himself? he mentioned her illness but I countered against him last night that illness is not alignment indicative, and even by his own admission he said in his filter "oh shit I didn't know that, she can do it" (close enough wording) so that should have given him the green light to just look at her content and solve.
must......avoid.......association.......reads.......... 
Fidei - doesn't someone tunnelling you by definition make them town? His content is "okay" alright, so is his read on LS unusual in a scummy way? no? then why isn't he town, or if that read IS unusual, then why? doesn't that make him scum and want you to look into him more? again, where's the value either way?
DYH - alright, so LS is townreading disformation and Rels, both of whom are pushing DYH. Explanation is largely parroting. same potential issue as some of the other reads previously mentioned.
the argument that LS' play is improving is false (figures trfel is making the argument) he brings nothing new to the table - lack of original thought is generally scum indicative, at least I can agree to disagree on town LS thinking Palmar is surely town based on end of cycle. he certainly hasn't done anything earth shattering or moved the game forward, and none of the FF/HTS/Fidei reads he has posted really make any sense from a town perspective.
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don't think I made a list post in my smattering of reads from last night:
Town: Shining, myself
Likely town: disformation, Rels
Need to look into: Fecalfeast, DYH
Need to look into again: Fidei (interactions, voting end of cycle 1)
Null with reservations/scumlean: Palmar
Likely scum: Trfel, LightningStrike
Lynching her with fire today: Half the Sky
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On December 05 2015 22:11 Palmar wrote:
I don't know if I'm going to do much more today, it's weekend.
Based on reading HtS and NM yesterday, I'm going to leave my vote on her. I think it's the right call.
I won't be here at the deadline (or well... I won't be here from many hours before the deadline until tomorrow), so meh. I'll check my phone and such. If anyone wants my attention for something special just shout, I'll hopefully notice. I still think this is a reasonably good lynch. NM seems kinda towny and he's very sure about HtS, and her entire tone is very very bland as I talked about.
I am again more suspicious of fidei and trfel than I was previously, with NM moving into the probably town column. I actually read something FF wrote that made me think he's town too, but since I can't even remember what it was, it can't have been super significant. Still for now this is good enough. I have yet to read FF, DYH and I think some other people, but I'll have to do that during the night or tomorrow.
Good luck guys.
You mentioned that Fidei was "overthinking" lynching HTS. what was so suspicious about it.
also separate from this issue, how was kush's explanation wordy/or an overexplanation that was scummy? that makes zero sense to me.
LS uses shitty meta to skate by, and even you were okay with lynching LS at one point.
so I really don't understand your approach end of cycle.
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probably shouldn't use the word shitty, but in general, it looks shitty to us, we cannot make people's metareads easily and certainly not in the manner LS was throwing anything together day 1, I won't speak for kush but from my perspective I cannot trust meta reads from people that I don't know. I have never played with LS, or you, or too many people in this game really.
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On December 06 2015 00:36 NocturneMage wrote:
probably shouldn't use the word shitty, but in general, it looks shitty to us, we cannot make people's metareads easily and certainly not in the manner LS was throwing anything together day 1, I won't speak for kush but from my perspective I cannot trust meta reads from people that I don't know. I have never played with LS, or you, or too many people in this game really.
ebwop - the bolded should be "understand"
we can't understand other people's meta reads easily
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I did not think of DYH coming up with his points in conjunction with bussing HTS based on her illness. I know in Void, she told her scummates her work schedule was tanking her and she told them to bus her but removing that argument, at the same time it is quite reasonable for someone to take a lynched player's reads, narrow down who they were scumreading and use that as a starting point. they might not be right but at least you can trust it.
that said, rels case is making me grapple with his alignment. there was something he drew to attention where dyh said "I'm still on all the scumlists despite agreeing with everyone" and I think it's more important how the scumread came about. it alludes to self-consciousness which is a scum tell. IDK.
I'm just going to assume he's a low count poster as either alignment - activity tells can be broken anyways.
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so I parsed his filter. two reservations (that I don't believe others already brought up? or if they did I missed it?)
post 1027/1165 - he makes a few comments about Rels using a negative connotation - "drowned out with aggression" "misrepresenting"
intentionally or not? no stance on Rels? or at least a lean based on those two encounters?
also I looked a bit into the argument that DYH could have been bussing HTS.
I replaced in at 2300 even. The post that DYH makes is at 0140 my time or something and I notice it about 10 minutes later. Knowing HTS, she would absolutely panic seeing me replace in. She WAS definitely up at end of cycle and would have seen the night post with the replacements. She could have told him to find a reason to scumread her, but then again on its own and forgetting she's in the game, the reasoning for starting to scumread her isn't bad or wrong from a townie standpoint (based on my last post).
That said the previous argument made was that he had no scumreads - he had a slew of reads to begin with but couldn't get off a scumread. I can see that from either way it could be noncomittal, or it could be lack of time.
I think my bigger problem is his pushback on Rels without really taking a stance on Rels. Is Rels just bullheaded town, opportunistic mafia? The self-consciousness stuff also doesn't go well with me either.
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I'm going to be gone most of today. Family time and loads of it this weekend with a slew of visitors to boot.
also didn't say it last post, but last post I'm going to say I throw dyh also in the null/scumlean column with reservations.
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LS, if someone's end of cycle activity was questionable you absolutely should have questioned them on it. that is a pretty critical thing to start off on. ignoring hts or ANYONE on that criteria doesn't make you look good at all.
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HTS is more mafia then DYH at this time, it's possible that they are both mafia but my vote is staying on the more mafia of the two.
1000% sure LS, or a soulread if that's what people call it here. I've known her since 2006. I am not wrong on this one.
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On December 06 2015 01:47 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 01:44 NocturneMage wrote:
LS, if someone's end of cycle activity was questionable you absolutely should have questioned them on it. that is a pretty critical thing to start off on. ignoring hts or ANYONE on that criteria doesn't make you look good at all. She haven't really been around this Day Phase so ofc I can't.Plus I think she was gone shortly after too as I was too going somewhere so :\
If she doesn't respond, she doesn't respond. The fact is, you didn't question her at all. (if you did, where is the post?)
I mean even Trfel said he had whatever questions for her and he laid them out.
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On December 06 2015 03:30 Fidei86 wrote:
In a fit of hypocrisy, I have spent most of last night / today not looking at the thread really. I actually played DOTA a fair bit with Dani. I have friends coming over this evening, but have plenty of time to play tomorrow. I don't see any reason not to lynch Dani still. My previous reasoning on this stands.
I forgot about this. she's continuing to improve, and I think that helped her a bit out of game, so thanks for that.
any change in thought regarding LS? even ignoring association with HTS, do you have thoughts on his latest set of reads?
I think I'm around for 20 more maybe and then out most likely after that.
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on mobile
as if there were ever any doubt. honestly anything HTS did day 2 is basically WIFOM, so whatever drivel she had the last 30 minutes really doesn't mean dick all.
Well except her update outside the game of course. <3
LS, of course she would post Talisker like that. she loves Talisker. she will drink that and/or Glenfiddich when she rolls mafia.
I don't know what the baby seal is for though.
anyways, my personal motivation in finding the last two mafia though is to make sure they don't keep drinking whisky via mislynches, because she would have asked them to do that. why? because it's HTS.
I have too many scumleans/reads so I know I have a bit to sort out when I return. probably going to proceed in terms of what teams make sense with hts and some additional filter checks.
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well Shining, define "too easily" there's people that could have planned it from the off and there's people in a normal bus - I learnt this in newbie 13 because Damdred caught me for it, that bus her at the very end, and don't try and fight it. they kind of see how thread sentiment goes and then just say "ah fuck it" but then again it's weekend and activity seemed sort of low this weekend.
I have to look into the likeliness of whoever the fuck could have planned it - the timing of my replacement (2300) and the first post against her do look suspect but when I look at DYH filter WITHOUT the associative read, he doesn't really look that bad, so I really don't know, he pulled off a great bus then though if he is mafia.
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like if people want to lynch me because they think I bussed her, go right ahead, just let me solve the game between now and Monday, we have what, three mislynches left?
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no we have two mislynches left.
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shit hold on....I was coached to write this out.
10:3 Kush ml
9:3 Damdred nk
9:2 HTS lynch
8:2 nk
7:2 ml
6:2 nk
5:2 ml
4:2 nk
3:2 lylo
3 mislynches, my mistake.
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ebwop - coached in past town/mafia games
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disformation wasn't even sure on hts. I think he had a null read on her at best and then looked into my case on her. it makes sense for him to vote a scum read over a null read. even if hts dropped for him, you can argue he could try to find more information with that second wagon. I learnt in newbie 17 or shit I forget which game but if you want to start a second wagon on scum you want to see if they are trying to protect a power role.
now this could be moot since daniele was sick all week. but it's just a preliminary thought.
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On December 06 2015 09:13 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote:
on mobile
as if there were ever any doubt. honestly anything HTS did day 2 is basically WIFOM, so whatever drivel she had the last 30 minutes really doesn't mean dick all.
Well except her update outside the game of course. <3
LS, of course she would post Talisker like that. she loves Talisker. she will drink that and/or Glenfiddich when she rolls mafia.
I don't know what the baby seal is for though.
anyways, my personal motivation in finding the last two mafia though is to make sure they don't keep drinking whisky via mislynches, because she would have asked them to do that. why? because it's HTS.
I have too many scumleans/reads so I know I have a bit to sort out when I return. probably going to proceed in terms of what teams make sense with hts and some additional filter checks. Baby Seals is a confession of being mafia. It's a tradition on TL Mafia forums to post that if you got caught or conceding as mafia. Also yes I know she loves to drink Talisker and Glenfiddich as mafia as she told me and others.
oh shit really? I thought it was a metaphor, I didn't realise that scum could actually POST baby seals to claim mafia. The Talisker was more obvious to me.
anyways back on topic....
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trfel - I looked at original op
town are allowed to no lynch.
but this I don't understand
what is the purpose of no lynching? we have three mislynches left?
4th game on tl here, so is there some strategy aspect I am missing????
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don't you no lynch mainly in mylo? like in a 5:3 situation?
why would you no lynch now?
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shining re: your post
well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left.
I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1.
He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact.
then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that.
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Alright, it's almost 1am here so I need to stop. Shining, I'll earmark a look on FF, tbf I have not really looked into him yet.
Trfel and LS are my strongest scumreads after and DYH had a reason to scum Trfel as well, so I'll look at that too.
I want to weigh DYH's d1 play against some of Rels' concerns being valid and the lack of push on Rels against what he's saying about Trfel. Someone bussed early, I remember FF's vote being early though, so that is a valid point.
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I think we disagree on a few reads, but I am on board with Rels/you being town, somewhat doubtful on Palmar, DYH looks okay to me independent of any WIFOM/association, there were a few things I didn't like about d1 play but there were aspects where I can see a town DYH be like welp, here it is, and his methods whilst different (looking at the dead people's reads and starting from there) don't seem off to me as scummy behaviour.
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Yeah LS, everyone else, like I said, don't even waste your time looking at anything she posted after 2230, it's WIFOM, I know it, just trust me, she's a confirmed weasel. She is trying to fuck with your mind.
In any case, I'll pick up tomorrow. Good night.
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On December 06 2015 10:13 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 10:06 NocturneMage wrote:
Yeah LS, everyone else, like I said, don't even waste your time looking at anything she posted after 2230, it's WIFOM, I know it, just trust me, she's a confirmed weasel. She is trying to fuck with your mind.
In any case, I'll pick up tomorrow. Good night. Half the Sky is trying to WIFOM LightningStrike and she's really good at it. But..... Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 09:24 NocturneMage wrote:
shining re: your post
well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left.
I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1.
He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact.
then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that. Bold emphasis mine.
no
that wifom can be interpreted in different ways
(1) she could be talkign to a scum buddy - they both are wifoming
(2) she could be trying to wifom town ls
(3) other people reading that could be wifomed by what hts is saying to town/scum ls.
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I keep getting drawn back to this game, it is too addictive.
also last question, what on earth is a mindmeld?
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and trfel we can agree to disagree here. hts is going to take out the person scumreading her - that was kush. she was not going to sit on LS regardless because if LS is town, there was an expectation that she should have known LS was town based on meta (if he is town) she looks really bad, and if LS is mafia which he likely is, she needed to get off him and found a meta reason to get off him and once she saw that every one was rushing to kush, she was definitely going to get rid of kush, I guarantee you the same thing would have happened had dyh gotten shennanied, or she would have started that shennanie herself. hts was poor because of agenda.
this is meta, I realise you cannot trust it or may be hesistant to trust it. had she not had a real read on either, she would have gone for the policy lynch, the whole thing points to trying to avoid culpability (yes now I know that is a real word) and I was trying to make that argument all of d2 as I was pushing her.
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I was saying that as a general statement LS and everyone. also I have too many scumreads so I need to resolve something somewhere.
and the second question, yes I am, but I did not read anything he may have posted that closely after 1800, and like everyone else I do keep evaluating and re-evaluating.
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On December 06 2015 10:49 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 10:45 NocturneMage wrote:
and trfel we can agree to disagree here. hts is going to take out the person scumreading her - that was kush. she was not going to sit on LS regardless because if LS is town, there was an expectation that she should have known LS was town based on meta (if he is town) she looks really bad, and if LS is mafia which he likely is, she needed to get off him and found a meta reason to get off him and once she saw that every one was rushing to kush, she was definitely going to get rid of kush, I guarantee you the same thing would have happened had dyh gotten shennanied, or she would have started that shennanie herself. hts was poor because of agenda.
this is meta, I realise you cannot trust it or may be hesistant to trust it. had she not had a real read on either, she would have gone for the policy lynch, the whole thing points to trying to avoid culpability (yes now I know that is a real word) and I was trying to make that argument all of d2 as I was pushing her. If LightningStrike is mafia, as you think, then why did Half the Sky vote for him in the first place, if she was only planning on jumping off, as you say? Also, can you please address the previous question about why you were giving advice to your scumread, LightningStrike?
Cred. She won't be afraid to bus d1 if she decided she might want to stay on and there was absolutely no better choice that could have made her look better/worse. She knows how to plan ahead as mafia and think through the long game and this is already proven in the two scumgames where she has endgamed.
second question, I wasn't, it was a general response.
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tldr - let me try and put it for you in one sentence. hts will bus/position herself for a townflip IF SHE FEELS SHE THINKS IT WILL MAKE HER LOOK GOOD. she can fake a lot of shit as mafia, like what rels posted earlier about the whole her checking the wc3 game for his meta....SHE ALREADY KNEW THAT AND WAS TRYING TO MAKE HERSELF LOOK TOWN.
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I feel I answered 1506 with 1507. wtf.
is there some random esp bullshit going on across the atlantic here?
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like I have reasons OTHER than that voting situation to believe LS is mafia, you keep forgetting this. the whole back and forth d2. it's not just the damned voting.
I must be really terrible at explaining things....well at least on mobile anyways.
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On December 06 2015 11:01 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 10:55 NocturneMage wrote:
I feel I answered 1506 with 1507. wtf.
is there some random esp bullshit going on across the atlantic here? You didn't really answer my question, but fair enough, I'll stop pressing. Was hoping you'd make a huge slip and confirm yourself as mafia, but it seems you're too good for that Was worth a try, though. @The Shining, I was primarily trying to get information from NocturneMage, not scumread him for that (though it does make me a bit more confident in my suspicion). And yes, my reasons for scumreading NocturneMage are mostly small reasons. And small reasons aren't that good, even if there are a lot of them. I have a few big reasons that I think are good, I have to go through and see how good those reasons are and how many there are. Keeping them secret for now because if I say them, it might affect NocturneMage's play.
*facepalm*
alright, 2am.....now I'm off, good night.
I'll work to solve the game, and like I said before, you will accept my god tier read on Dani if you want me to flip Monday night. go right on ahead.
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I'm on mobile again, I had little time today, ironically most of that day was spent with you-know-who (except for Fidei who decided to steal her for a few rounds of dota lmao).
Trfel's tone read on me (or rather the way he is trying to convey it) is very scummy, he fails to understand why my tone is different even though he's already acknowledged that I'm excited to play v HTS. this game got a little (too) personal as soon as I replaced in, how do you not realise this?
gloating in the thread is unnecessary, she knew it was coming, and why troll in this thread when you can troll her in real life?
that is an utterly stupid reason to scumread me.
(2) is terrible for one simple fact - I REPLACED IN AND MY FIRST ENCOUNTER WITH THIS GAME WAS ON MOBILE. You lynched a blue, I started with end of cycle. Then read filters of people that I felt were most critical for my methods of solving the game. Then re-read the thread for full context. Don't like the fact I started with HTS/Palmar/whoever? Too bad. Don't like my scumreads? You read my filter. I engaged in conversation with LS and Fidei to a lesser extent. Others were from reading filters.
people do not all scumhunt in the same manner as you do.
(3) in post 1527 is a joke. what do you mean by "didn't care that she was lynched?" to me it was a damned formality. 1000% knew she was flipping red, I was thinking past this lynch most of d2, if you are somehow town (omg in before he scumreads me for talking to him as if he's town omg!!!!) how are you not seeing this in my filter?
(I am assuming you have delved and done whatever you've done in your case which I very much look forward to reading.)
Or rather he's acknowledged it and just continues to ignore it.
whatever, clearly he's trying to pile me up so I'm just going to ignore him until he spews his grandiose case.
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ebwop - he's trying to RILE me up, which is generally a mafia tactic.
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On December 07 2015 08:12 LightningStrike wrote:
Hmm Palmar said to lynch Tfrel before his death. Otherwise I don't Palmar was really woth killing.
no
latest scumreads I recall were fidei and trfel (!!!) with fidei being his primary target.
wifom is wifom, maybe they were looking for that blue, but they are down their roleblocker...
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On December 07 2015 04:07 Palmar wrote:
I'm not at home and I won't really be doing things until tomorrow. I just want to get it out there that without further reviewing my reads, I would vote for Fidei or trfel tomorrow. I actually think Fidei should be the primary lynch candidate.
qfe
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at least if nothing else this NK makes part of my scumhunting easier, as palmar was in my scumlean category. one read sorted.
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could he have been offed before or to prevent that read on James?
I drew association between him and hts before but let's have a look see at James ignoring association with HTS.
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On December 07 2015 08:18 disformation wrote:
Hmmm... kinda sleeping on fidei86. Like the last time I read his filter, I was not really impressed. but I hadn't the impression it was scummy. Will probably read again.
Do you ppl have a decent read on Fidei86? I also never played with him, so no idea on big meta stuff.
Could also just be mafia trying to WIFOM up the place, but since I don't have a good read on Fidei86 I think at least checking that out would be a good idea.
what did you think of his interactions with me as I was trying to draw an association between him and possibly LS early d2 as I was pushing HTS?
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On December 07 2015 08:00 DoYouHas wrote:
Looking at HtS's filter I have a couple of thoughts.
1. I am very wrong about Trfel, he is town.
2. Disfo may not be the townie that I thought he was. There are a few things that look off to me between him and HtS.
3. The NM bus theory of Trfel may not be far-fetched. HtS was soft defending moosy.
Will elaborate assuming I live. Pretty good bet.
I can't control anything she does. If you people fall for this theory and I flip Monday night, I am the one that will have to deal with physically hearing her laughing her head off from the study, so do pardon if I get a little annoyed at this.
That said, a few people (I forget whom) raised the point about you being in the same boat, you as mafia bussing HTS, one of the first votes on HTS but first real suspicion only after I replaced in.
Any thoughts on those if you looked in that direction?
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hold on I misstated 1554. I see why you misunderstood.
(reading a few filters but may be interrupted here....)
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On December 07 2015 08:21 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 08:18 disformation wrote:
Hmmm... kinda sleeping on fidei86. Like the last time I read his filter, I was not really impressed. but I hadn't the impression it was scummy. Will probably read again.
Do you ppl have a decent read on Fidei86? I also never played with him, so no idea on big meta stuff.
Could also just be mafia trying to WIFOM up the place, but since I don't have a good read on Fidei86 I think at least checking that out would be a good idea. what did you think of his interactions with me as I was trying to draw an association between him and possibly LS early d2 as I was pushing HTS?
rephreased
what did you think of Fidei's interactions with me as I was trying to draw an association between HTS and him and HTS and LS early d2 as I was pushing HTS?
that should be clearer now. apologies.
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flow of reads - palmar
On December 03 2015 17:45 Palmar wrote:
My current town circle is:
Damdy
LS
Shining
Me
I don't really trust many other people.
after d1 lynch
On December 04 2015 03:27 Palmar wrote:
I actually like Rels right now
night 1
On December 04 2015 22:03 Palmar wrote:
Btw this is the current world view I'm working with:
Probably town:
Rels, for effort (although I know he does it as mafia too, but who cares, he deserves at least to be not the mafia we're looking for).
LS (EoD shennies)
Shining (his entire reaction to my palmartunnel™ on day 1. Especially the part where he created an excuse to leave the thread and then didn't).
Leaning town:
disformation (mostly a leftover tone read from day 1. I've yet to read a post of his that feels forced or awkward).
People who I have read some parts of, but not really made a judgement on alignment:
Fidei (I liked his first post because he spotted exactly the same thing as I did with regards to shining. I often overvalue such mind-melds, but meh. I feel like I should just sort of give him a pass for today, but I'm not certain).
People who I have ignored/Have little opinion on:
DoYouHas (his filter on day 1 was bad, but I sort of started ignoring him after misreading one of his posts. I should probably have looked into him anyway)
HtS (I remember thinking "that's unusually awkward, even for HtS" at some point, but other than that I have generally flat out ignored everything she says. Very worthy candidate to investigate for me)
People I have not read at all
The replacements
People who I am slightly suspicious of
Trfel (It's sort of a sheep from Damdred, but also his emotional outburst yesterday. He was really over the top about a few people not listening to his read on moosy).
So yeah, I don't have a strong scumread right now. I have no "gotcha, this guy is mafia", but I have a basis to work upon.
Given that hts and dyh are the people with votes on them, I'm going to focus on reading them and the cases for them being mafia. For those of you that haven't played with me before, I have a very annoying habit of ignoring people who are mafia (which is another good reason to look into dyh and hts). Basically the theory is that mafia people just post to fit in, whereas townies are posting a lot more entertaining/insane stuff. So I end up not reading boring mafia posts.
My reads in general are sort of fluid, but I'll figure it out.
list post night 1
On December 05 2015 04:00 Palmar wrote:
I'm firmly team NM
throughout day 2, this was his second occurrance of this.
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and of course I forgot but I had previously quoted his last post night 2 - suspicion on fidei/trfel with the primary being palmar.
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I'm thinking corroborate NK WIFOM reads also from d1 and see where the aggregate takes us, if anywhere.
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On December 02 2015 00:25 Damdred wrote:
Let me explain in some semblance of an answer.
Trfel uses stupid arguments early to try to convinced thread that damdred is scum. (I use stupid here not in offense to trfel)
Time passes, damdred town leans him for the stupid argument.
Later trfel decides his argument is partially stupid so apologizes for it but states he still doesn't think damdred is totally town.
Scum trfel doesn't like giving up things and fights for his stupid arguments. I know this is wifom so I font think its indicative.
Its different if only slightly
several posts where Damdred goes back and forth on trfel. referenced from filter.
On December 02 2015 09:36 Damdred wrote:
Disinformation
Eels
Damdred
Shining
Palmar
Leans
Trfel
Fid (falling)
Ls
Honestly it's notso bad so far even though I've read 0 filters.
On December 02 2015 22:26 Damdred wrote:
##vote fidel86
I'll answer trfel after coffee
On December 03 2015 06:34 Damdred wrote:
It was mainly a pressure vote (which really wasn't even a real vote no vote thread)
Fid is sort of a mystery to me, I like several of the things hes saying but his general lack of activity is indicative of his scum/lurkiness that I've come to expect.
His recent list posting looked really towny to me though, so hes still a town lean but I wouldn't sleep on him.
I really encourage everyone to read and vote for LS. If I have to case him I will but i'd rather people make there own decisions in life.
(note I am ignoring also his reads on LS since he also believed after night 1 LS was modconfirmed town)
On December 03 2015 07:05 Damdred wrote:
Sure shining,
before we go down this rabbit hole where you are trying to vet me. Remember we have 56 minutes before lynch roughly and you need to comment on what i'm saying on LS. That is the most important thing right now.
Fid was a town read earlier in the day for me almost right out of the gate, his lack of activity caused him to drop for me almost out of my town reads. He still hadn't done anything when I woke up so I "voted" him as I didn't really vote in the vote thread i'm not sure you could call it that however. It was pressure to see what he would do.
His posts afterwards as I've caught up have seemed not so bad his read post I liked to some extent.
On December 03 2015 08:18 Damdred wrote:
Yeah.
Damdred
LS
Shining
Rels
Palmar
That's my strong town circle.
On December 03 2015 08:27 Damdred wrote:
Trfel I honestly don't know what you want me to say, I interacted with you when it was important eod.
You were obviously fishing early d1 to try to drag something out a sort of trap if you would, but you went off the rails when I put my own trap around you. Which resulted in your town read. Though your over reaction about it over all is sort of concerning.
The LS thing isn't really alignment indicative, trying to save your life goes both ways. LS is town though so shrug.
On December 03 2015 10:21 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +Right now I'm most suspicious of Damdred, NocturneMage/MoosyDoosy, The Shining, Fidei86, and Rels (in no particular order). There's been a lot that happened since I last did serious analysis, though. this is a really really strange list of people.
(the above quote coming from trfel)
On December 04 2015 05:37 Damdred wrote:
Like I said I'm not going to have time to read up before deadline.
I have the reasons I scummed ls in my filter several times.
You so silly though disform.
Also trfel since you are trying to be better at the game, you are using incomplete meta to try to prove someone is scum... While I applaud your tenacity show me something tangible ie actions from this game that are scum motivated.
the above in bolded showing a waffling on trfel - could be town (first fragment) and second is a potential mafia tell for him (reference geript, newbie 17, possible reservation this game)
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so aggregate wifom nk analysis - (learnt in newbie 14 when I was cop from rsoultin)
LS is likely town/disformation probably town
Fidei/Trfel with some reasoning to kill one and/or both of these people.
Interesting. Not definitive obviously but interesting.
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wait, disformation second half of your last post I think you are completely misunderstanding.
first quote - that was nothing to do with the game - that was real life. he wasn't trying to get a read on me I don't think he was just trying to see if hts was being manipulative with rl, the answer is no (even if she flipped scum, that is just hts being hts honestly I cited examples of her doing this as town too) and aside that there were other reasons to scumread her
second quote, it was a misunderstanding. I was pinging trfel but my response came right after fidei's quote so fidei just assumed I was talking to him. but I think I can see why you came to that conclusion with those two sentences in the last quote.
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##vote Trfel
This vote could change but a lot of my previous reservations stand.
Hmmmmm DYH, I see what you are saying here, but same argument I bring as to the scumreads on me - you're looking at it from HTS's side. People cannot control what HTS does.
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1am, I'm out. I'm hoping to try and spend a little more time on this tomorrow.
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On December 07 2015 21:37 Fidei86 wrote:
Morning Rels. Yes I played a lot of dota with Dani over the weekend. Yes I sort of lost interest a bit in the game over the weekend. No I'm not Mafia. Yes I will catch up this evening.
Fidei was probably discussing Mafia strategy with HTS in dota land before she was lynched Saturday night. Typical dota players.
(that was a complete joke btw...I'm a League player so of course I will say this)
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Rels
Damdred was going back and forth, finding reasons for both rationales of town and mafia Trfel.
I think Trfel is the right vote today, but if you're that suspicious of Fidei aside from the reasons I looked into him, what were your other arguments?
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On December 07 2015 22:41 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 22:31 NocturneMage wrote:
Rels
Damdred was going back and forth, finding reasons for both rationales of town and mafia Trfel.
I think Trfel is the right vote today, but if you're that suspicious of Fidei aside from the reasons I looked into him, what were your other arguments? I really need to stop with the meta/tone reads, but this really feels like town Rels to me. Mafia Rels is tryhard Rels. Obviously lynching me because Palmar was struggling with my alignment and because I went afk is a pretty ehh reason to lynch me (especially as I was right from the start on HTS), so it sort of seems like he is dis-interested town more than anything.
Meh, I honestly thought Rels was town from merely reading his filter as I was catching up.
Anyhow, I think most people from what I realise tend to not play as much on the weekend because it's the weekend - regardless of the d2 lynch, I'm saying for games in general, I've noticed mafia games in general are slower on weekends.
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On December 07 2015 20:46 Fecalfeast wrote:
lol accidentally fallout until 3:45
what a good towny.
Who should I sheep?
I completely missed this post....I know this is how you played in the Newbie 17, but still.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
do us all a good favour and start making cases at some point when you were actually arsed to?
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ebwop - cases or conversational scumhunting, whatever you prefer
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also disformation re 1855 - Palmar I think said that LS's end of cycle 1 message about him being VT pretty much exonerated him. see the posts where I queued up both Damdred and Palmar's reads to aggregate where they both stood before they died and as they played.
right now, it's possible LS could be scum but based on the NKs I'm going to put him and DYH aside at this time, as scum and having been scum, you want to really eliminate the biggest threats. the only way this wouldn't apply is if you were universally townread, but that doesn't seem to be the case for any of my scumreads, so....
unless someone wants to make a non-meta based case on Fidei, the only point really sticking out at me is the soft pushing d1, and no offence James, but you know Dani and I well enough, if you DIDN'T sheep me I would have called you out on it, and if I recall right at no point in the game did you scumread me despite calling out my tone for being a "Jack Russell on meth" (lol?). So I really think that is not alignment indicative, you'd do it as town and you'd HAVE to do it as mafia.
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here's another related theory I had for palmar being shot folks, hear me out.
look I don't know the guy, but from the games I have read where dani has played I understand there is a pattern where some players know each other extremely well.
like I look at the database, palmar has shittonnes of games played.
does palmar know anyone here so well that he can ping them out well out of the blue even if he is not scumreading them now? is he known as someone who has late game heroics? who in this group might be threatened by him regardless of his reads at any point in the game?
I see trfel and ls have approx 18-20 games played, I think recalling, and we know palmar was townreading ls or buying into the modconfirmation thing (which means ls should have no reason to shoot him in theory), dyh about 15, so IDK, ff high 20s, the rest far less than this.
trfel is already being suspected by palmar, but thoughts on the rest?
I realise this is quite random but I'm just trying to see if he possibly could ferret out another long time player and maybe that person could have been feeling threatened by him or his knowledge of the game.
palmar was obviously taking a lazy way of solving the game so who here could have been getting scared of palmar once he decides to pull it together and solve?
any takers? 4th game on TL folks. since so many of you are throwing meta out
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actually looking at the way Damdred played the game come to think of it, the same concept I just discussed regarding Palmar applies to him. Plenty of games on him. He had more focus and direction day 1 but night 1 he did dick all, not sure if he was playing with the intention of trying to not be shot or if he was legit busy.
so same question regarding Damdred anyone else (besides LS based on modconfirmation) with reason to dread him?
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need to step away for a bit. will return.
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On December 08 2015 01:58 Rels wrote:
I read fidei s filter and everybody should do that, then vote him.
He really is robotic in tone. I will check if that works as the case in his town games, but I see what Palmer meant.
His ls read seems fake. Around eod, "I would lynch him but I would rather lynch other people." After eod, "Rels and disfo are town if ls is town." Then "actually this confirmed town stuff doesn't convince me", when before eod he was not that convinced on ls to begin with. Now he's still pushing ls for ... I don't really know why.
His filter is focused on very few people. I think he's buddying me.
After Hts became the clear lynch, he didn't do anything. He was playing dota all weekend instead of being motivated to play.
Palmar s main target was fidei and he was the nk.
To everyone: please read his filter and report back.
I'm marking this for reference because I am looking at this post and there are a slew of things that are throwing me off. Not because I think this post looks scummy but because there is a lot of subjectivity in this read.
Tone reads are tone reads. I was taught prior to this game they are very subjective, and generally best for day 1 reads but as a strong meta read through this is day 3? it just seems weak without other evidence like voting analysis etc. or if you can tie the meta to something else. Like when he acts X, he does Y in conjunction with Z. Tie the tone to actions. Tie the tone to effects. Am I making sense?
Separate from that however, I will look into the LS read. The unflipped association is really bad but townies also make unflipped association all the time. I pushed LS because he was doing dick all and only such after the fact, and most critically, he failed to push HTS when he found her end of cycle questionable. We both agreed the LS filter was complete trash through the end of day 2, so if LS's game has gotten better (to be fair I stopped reading after the hts lynch) AND if Fidei is continuing to push the lynch, then it does look really bad. I guess it comes down to what work he's put in to get his conclusions. I am putting aside LS for now based on the NKs personally.
Back to James focusing on a few people, I can understand as a scum indicative, ignoring time (which can account for town not having the time), it can indicate an agenda. Because mafia need mislynches. I can get that. The same argument however can be made for DYH, but this last thing I looked at him, he doesn't seem to have a lot of time playing the game? Both were making in and out excuses, so only the NK analysis separates those two.
To use another example, FF was playing Fallout 4 all weekend. But NKs don't/didn't implicate him, so...
Also this term called buddying. I had recently shadowed marvellosity and I asked him a question about the difference between buddying and pocketing. And that they were both related.
I didn't understand it in the context you were using it, so I looked it up.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Buddying
Buddying is a tactic used to subconsciously become perceived as less of a threat by another player. While this is usually done by scum, Townies have been known to do this as well.
This is typically accomplished by the buddying player acting unnaturally friendly to its target, either subtly or outright. Originally, this made it so that once the buddying scum died, it implicated the victim they were acting friendly toward. In addition, by budding up to a victim, they will become less likely to want to lynch the buddying player in the first place. More recently, though, this has become used as a pre-emptive accusation against anyone who acts nicely toward another player, regardless of intent.
So I look at this definition Rels, and I am trying to think of a time where Fidei acts "unnaturally friendly" towards you. Lack of scepticism? He explained using meta why he's townreading you but are you saying it's bad meta to townread you or was there another quote that you using to say he's buddying you?
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On December 08 2015 02:35 Fidei86 wrote:
Saying "I will vote for X but I'd rather vote for Y" is exactly what I said in Newbie Mafia XIV on d1, when we shenaniganed onto Mafia GB. Alex might remember that.
Not that it really proves anything, I suppose.
Yeah there were parts of that first paragraph I disagreed with. Or that I don't feel are completely mafia indicative.
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I mean I look at that criteria and I think Trfel looks significantly worse. NK analysis, check. focus on limited people (i.e. me...) check. Tonally, Trfel is throwing around the same "woe is me" when people aren't listening to him. Subjective yes, but same criteria.
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here's an overall read progression:
On December 03 2015 03:17 Trfel wrote:
I'm going to eat lunch, I'll get to Rels and Fidei86 after. Fidei86 is probably an okay lynch, but I need to read his filter first.
Putting off reading Damdred until he answers my question, it would help me to read him greatly.
Otherwise, I could lynch MoosyDoosy today.
I don't want to lynch Onegu today for stupid reasons.
On December 03 2015 03:50 Trfel wrote:
Ugh, I need to actually get lunch, but here's my thing on MoosyDoosy really quick.
When he checked his role PM, he said he was town, and he got really frustrated. Then three minutes later, he seemed quite happy. Throughout his filter, he seems really happy and there's no hint of frustration at all. This doesn't match.
On December 03 2015 04:18 Trfel wrote:
I was thinking about it over lunch. MoosyDoosy is nearly guaranteed scum.
There's everything you could ask for except for baby seals.
Voting for MoosyDoosy. You should, too.
On December 03 2015 04:58 Trfel wrote:
Half the Sky, MoosyDoosy is mafia and needs to be lynched. Trust me.
On December 03 2015 06:23 Trfel wrote:
Like, this isn't a policy lynch at all.
MoosyDoosy isn't being lynched because he's bad. MoosyDoosy isn't being lynched because he's useless. MoosyDoosy isn't being lynched because he's obnoxious.
MoosyDoosy is being lynched because his play has too many contradictions and has no possible town mindset behind it, while it fits perfectly with mafia motivation of contributing as little as possible, in this case relying on meta to avoid the Day 1 lynch.
(leaving out 4-5 quotes on his push on Moosy)
then.....AFTER end of cycle.....
On December 03 2015 08:30 Trfel wrote:
I'm not quite as confident in MoosyDoosy being scum any more, because generally people would listen to me when I'm right. Like, I don't see how I could be wrong, however I need to clear my head and take another look. I think he is likely scum, though.
I'm not sure what his post-deadline posts suggest, I'm really terrible at reading into emotions so I might have to ignore those.
Then Trfel makes his ridiculous case on me using Moosy's and my play, it was that massive 5 point bullet case that he spent a lot of time on.
Then I come out with pushing HTS. Then he comes up with this.
On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:35 The Shining wrote:On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote:
Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? Was waiting for someone to ask that. Was hoping that no one asked that I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so) I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all. Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here.And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred. I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar. That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred. But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town.
TLDR - based on NK analysis I AM LIKELY TOWN
Then a few more posts saying I'm less likely mafia.
Then out of nowhere somewhere he's saying that it's possible I might be bussing HTS.
Rels (and even Fidei!!!!!!) actually considered the town story - that I have extremely solid meta/personality basis on Dani. TRFEL DIDN'T DO THAT (if he did, I truly missed it) from all I read.
Then this.
On December 05 2015 04:39 Trfel wrote:I think that NocturneMage is mafia. He hasn't been really posting for that long, which makes it hard to pin him on long-term mafia motivations. But short-term, it looks like he's playing a momentum style of mafia.
If you don't know what that is, it's how I like play as mafia, because it's the most fun (the term is my own in origin, though others may use it before to mean the same thing, or possibly something else, idk ). Basically the point is to be pushing people so much (either in force or in number of pushes or both) that everyone's so busy with that that they don't stop to realize that you're mafia. The characteristics of this are clearly shown in NocturneMage's play. - Very confident reads/play
- Lots of posts pushing people
- Few/no townreads, little/no interaction with townreads (the second point doesn't need to be true but often happens)
- (possibly) excessive emotions (especially anger)
- Logical gaps in reads, ignores ways that scumreads could be town
- Portrays themself as a "holy crusade to lynch mafia"
Based on this, the logical/emotional inconsistencies in NocturneMage's play, and the "four people are scum, everyone else doesn't exist" read progression, I think that NocturneMage is mafia. Thoughts?
So I'm mafia because I am playing the way that Trfel is playing as mafia?
Are you shitting me? What the hell progression is that?
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I refute all these posts and particularly the basis for this scumreads based on how I replaced into the game, caught up, towncircled and adjusted reads (and I'm still doing so!!!!), and then he's still on his merry way saying I'm mafia? He uses his own metrics to make these assumptions. I'm on page 8/10 of his filter, he gives two town reads on dyh/ls, and then goes back to just seeing me as public enemy #1.
focusing on absolutely no one else except me and using explanations that don't make me mafia through several points I've refuted him on based on comparison of his play to last game, his approach to me this game, his refusal to see how I process through a town lens, including any reasoning for my change in tone, which I have explained.
he pulled the same shit last game as mafia, stuff that may not be alignment indicative and exclusive scum lens here.
and this all, plus the NKs....
Just kill Trfel.
I know there is mafia #3, I will follow up on James, and I won't ignore a third mafia but just honestly kill Trfel.
Bloody hell.
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evaluating Fidei that is.
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On December 08 2015 05:45 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 22:53 disformation wrote:Hmm... yeah I think I remember you calling out HtS on D1. But here you are "only" slightly suspicious... and what is a little scum lean between good partners? On December 01 2015 21:45 Fidei86 wrote:
@Rels
I have looked over HTS' posts, and I am more okay with #209 now that I've read it a few times. There's nothing particularly objectionable in there.
At #219, I disagree with her read on the Palmar / Shining interaction. There is something very strange about Shining's progression, and HTS just skates past it.
She then at #224, #237 and #246 goes forward and then back on on Trfel. She asks Shining about people other than Palmar, but noticeably doesn't ask Palmar about people other than Shining.
I know that HTS is very much a fan of Palmar's scum play. I know that she has previously had him as a coach and that she generally speaks highly of him as a player. It is strange to me that she almost specifically avoids interacting with him, or making any comments about him. Honestly, if she can't read him, it seems like the rest of us don't have a chance.
None of the above is a guaranteed scum-tell. But I find it somewhat suspicious. Town HTS nitpicks as well, but I just always get the sense that she is going somewhere with her thoughts. That seems lacking to me. Still want to look at your whole filter and progression on HtS later tonight. The thing is: someone had to bus her. From my POV two someones have bussed HtS and I am going to find out who. Disfo I think you fundamentally misunderstand what bussing is. Bussing is where one mafia player actively works to get HTS lynched. The only people who really worked on the HTS lynch actively were NM, DYH and me. Oh and Palmar, but he's flipped town. If any of us were mafia, that would be a bus. The fact is that it was plainly obvious that she was going to get lynched once Alex, Palmar and I basically decided it. Lots of the rest of you voted for her, but just voting for a scum is not the same as bussing. Your logic is just totally wrong here.
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ugh hold on, that's not what I meant to do
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On December 08 2015 05:45 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 22:53 disformation wrote:Hmm... yeah I think I remember you calling out HtS on D1. But here you are "only" slightly suspicious... and what is a little scum lean between good partners? On December 01 2015 21:45 Fidei86 wrote:
@Rels
I have looked over HTS' posts, and I am more okay with #209 now that I've read it a few times. There's nothing particularly objectionable in there.
At #219, I disagree with her read on the Palmar / Shining interaction. There is something very strange about Shining's progression, and HTS just skates past it.
She then at #224, #237 and #246 goes forward and then back on on Trfel. She asks Shining about people other than Palmar, but noticeably doesn't ask Palmar about people other than Shining.
I know that HTS is very much a fan of Palmar's scum play. I know that she has previously had him as a coach and that she generally speaks highly of him as a player. It is strange to me that she almost specifically avoids interacting with him, or making any comments about him. Honestly, if she can't read him, it seems like the rest of us don't have a chance.
None of the above is a guaranteed scum-tell. But I find it somewhat suspicious. Town HTS nitpicks as well, but I just always get the sense that she is going somewhere with her thoughts. That seems lacking to me. Still want to look at your whole filter and progression on HtS later tonight. The thing is: someone had to bus her. From my POV two someones have bussed HtS and I am going to find out who. Disfo I think you fundamentally misunderstand what bussing is. Bussing is where one mafia player actively works to get HTS lynched. The only people who really worked on the HTS lynch actively were NM, DYH and me. Oh and Palmar, but he's flipped town. If any of us were mafia, that would be a bus. The fact is that it was plainly obvious that she was going to get lynched once Alex, Palmar and I basically decided it. Lots of the rest of you voted for her, but just voting for a scum is not the same as bussing. Your logic is just totally wrong here.
I actually thought bussing was just voting as well, didn't matter how active the person was tbh.
In newbie 13, I didn't actively work to get my partner lynched, in fact when it was clear he was getting lynched, I tagged on right at the end - but was accused (correctly) of bussing my teammate because I did so at the end and did dick all to solve towards his lynch.
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Bussing
Bussing
Bussing is the act of distancing yourself from your scum partners, usually by helping to lynch them (and hopefully playing a major role in convincing others that they are worthy to be lynched). The term "bussing" comes from the phrase "to throw under the bus", which means sacrificing them to gain credibility. The 'bussee' is the player being thrown under the bus, and the 'busser' is the one doing it. The effectiveness of this technique varies, mostly due to the fact that it has been around practically since the beginning of the game of Mafia. The main reason it is successful (when done correctly) is because there is absolutely no way to know positively whether bussing has occurred, or whether the suspicion on the busser's part was legitimate, and coming from a Pro-town viewpoint.
Why bussing works
Bussing works because (if done correctly) it distances the players doing it to each other sufficiently that nobody (or at least, nobody but the smartest players) will ever suspect that they are both scum in the same faction. The reasoning applies that if the bussee is actually lynched; the busser is considered to be obviously pro-town. Because, of course, why would a Mafia member try to get his own scum partner lynched? And thus, WIFOM ensues.
How to spot bussing
Suspicion commonly arises when someone is suddenly lynched for what seem like minor or spurious reasons, and yet flips scum, because it may be indicative that one of the major proponents of their lynch is actually one of their scum partners.
I mean using this definition, I think Fecalfeast would fall most guilty under this (earliest vote, not as active as me or DYH), Trfel and LS both held out on HTS for the longest time before just voting her and there was hardly any resistance to that lynch, and I think Palmar and Shining just piled on at the end, but I think Shining was afk most of phase, and Palmar flipped town.
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EBWOP - Fecalfeast would fall most guilty as he was the first BUT Trfel and LS had or showed doubt on HTS and then didn't bother try to fight it.
All three would be liable for voting HTS for poor reasons or spurious as defined in mafiascum
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But then the first paragraph says "playing a major role"......eh I must be missing something here.
Honestly I've heard it used in multiple ways.
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At the moment, I'm inclined to think disformation is bad rather than mafia based on that exchange but I don't think Fidei's questioning him on this makes him mafia. Probably more likely town. Eh, back to Fidei's filter.
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Rels to answer your question on LS - I have read from the point of my main exchange with him, pges 7-9 of his filter can be summarised
(1) inflating the filter with useless comments (not even part of alignment determining conversation or even afk comments)
(2) parroting (examples post 1635)
(3) 1450 to 1478 is an example of asking for information and not really doing anything of it
This is insane for me. The NKs exonerate LS, but at the same time it is mindboggling this guy is doing dick all and people are ignoring him.
His filter is 1000% mafia. Something isn't right.
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Like I really honestly feel that everything after the exchange with HTS right before her lynch was posting just to post.
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LS tries to interact with HTS end of day 2.....tries to get information from her.
meh fuck it, probably not alignment indicative anyhow. if LS is somehow town, he really can't do dick all because she clearly evades his question (Alex is being Alex, and leaves it at that), if he's mafia, he doesn't need to (and obviously really doesn't).
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moving to fidei
going to focus exclusively on the evolvement of the LS read first....
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James - LS read evolvement
Part 1
On December 01 2015 09:01 Fidei86 wrote:
So that people know, the people in the game I know best are Half the Sky and Rels. I've been town with both, supervised both when I GMed and was Mafia with Rels once. I also have played with a lot of the rest of you before, including Moosy, Lightning Strike, Onegu and Damdred. I don't know DYH, trfel, dis, Kush or Palmar very well.
first post - important for context.
On December 01 2015 18:42 Fidei86 wrote:
Lightning Strike's entrance seems way over the top to me, especially for him. Usually he comes in and posts some relatively anodyne 1-liners, whereas here he came in with a big long paragraph attacking someone (Trfel I think) for calling him out earlier. In my experience, town LS is much more relaxed and jokey, until he starts getting attacked seriously (which I don't think had happened by that point). Then again, LS is primo lynch-bait D1, so I'll try and avoid getting too tunnelled for now.
tone read indicates mafia. is hesistant because he might be misread a bit.
Below is part of the list post - edited for brevity
On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote:
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless
Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard"
Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post.
DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read.
Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised.
A side note and a few critical questions to ask about James.
I think this is what Rels was talking about. No problem with opting to policy lynch, although from my context (see first post where Fidei says he has played with Moosy) and experience (in my last newbie Moosy martyred and almost got lynched as vigilante) and when I obsed Newbie 12, (town) HTS pushed him in that game and he almost got himself lynched but then she turned around, caught a scumslip and ultimately saved Moosy, who was town. In Newbie 13, where I was mafia, he set himself up poorly day 1, and then he got modkilled.
The potential issue I have here is whether we should hold an expectation that James should have KNOWN that Moosy plays like this. You can argue him wanting to lynch Moosy is a copout based on his own admitted experience with Moosy and whether he should have known how Moosy plays.
From my own memory, I think James was in Newbie 12, I obsed it. I know we had 14 together, but Moosy was mafia, and swindled us all. I don't think James was in 13, where Moosy was town and I was mafia, and I don't think he was in 17. IDK.
Potential scum motivation if and only if the expectation holds that he should have known Moosy better. Disclaimer: I have not researched appropriate evidence in the database.
On December 03 2015 07:17 Fidei86 wrote:
Like I'd vote LS over most of the rest of the players - but Moosy is a disgrace this game, and if he doesn't take this game seriously we shouldn't take him seriously.
So so far, a clear scum push on LS, with the Moosy read v expectation caveat. That was through end of cycle 1.
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On December 08 2015 06:24 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 06:11 NocturneMage wrote:
Rels to answer your question on LS - I have read from the point of my main exchange with him, pges 7-9 of his filter can be summarised
(1) inflating the filter with useless comments (not even part of alignment determining conversation or even afk comments)
(2) parroting (examples post 1635)
(3) 1450 to 1478 is an example of asking for information and not really doing anything of it
This is insane for me. The NKs exonerate LS, but at the same time it is mindboggling this guy is doing dick all and people are ignoring him.
His filter is 1000% mafia. Something isn't right. LS is playing like that. I have a hard time reading him normally, I pretended he was obvious town the two games I was scum and he was town, but he looked super scummy to me. The key thing is: LS has a hard time lying and playing as scum. Him screaming at EOD + poping and making comment about stuff is town indicative, as is both Damdred and Palmar saying he is town.
Alright, you know what? I'm going to just take a lap of faith here and trust you people on this. I'm also going to try and delve into the database just to absolutely be sure if we're in a lylo situation and it's me and him still alive with whoever else.
To me him making useless comments tells me that he's having a hard time playing as scum, he can't drive the thread forward.
I mean if we get endgamed and LS turns out to be mafia (or if he flips mafia for whatever reason) I am honestly going to be raging at EVERYONE - and I MEAN EVERYONE - in the post game for meta that could be broken or easily faked.
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ebwop - LEAP of faith here, not lap of faith
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Still analysing James' filter, but I'm taking a timeout for some quality time with my lovely roleblocker wife
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I am back. That was a long ass timeout.
On December 08 2015 07:18 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 06:11 NocturneMage wrote:
Rels to answer your question on LS - I have read from the point of my main exchange with him, pges 7-9 of his filter can be summarised
(1) inflating the filter with useless comments (not even part of alignment determining conversation or even afk comments)
(2) parroting (examples post 1635)
(3) 1450 to 1478 is an example of asking for information and not really doing anything of it
This is insane for me. The NKs exonerate LS, but at the same time it is mindboggling this guy is doing dick all and people are ignoring him.
His filter is 1000% mafia. Something isn't right. NK WIFOM is super dangerous.
I realise this James.
I was coached in the past that (1) it becomes stronger in the late game or (2) in aggregate and (3) tying it together with other forms of evidence.
To this be said, the NKs may not have occurred because of LS but because of the third teammate (and in some effect N1 could be attributed to HTS for all we know, it's safe to say she and Damdred probably had some games together).
I want badly to trust my townreads (Shining/Rels) and two flipped but now when you mention this and your rationale for policy lynching LS, I do get worried.
This is reminding me of Newbie 14. rayn and yamato - two flipped town (and the former a townread of mine in that game) hard townread Copcake over some shitty voice mafia heuristic and when I engaged her she failed to meet the criteria she even said for herself. The ONLY reason she was ever caught was because I was cop and I redchecked her.
Sad to say I'm VT, who knows what our one-shot-hell-if-I-knew-what-we-had blue role actually is.
But in fleshing out my read on LS there were several pitfalls with him.
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Alright, here we go.
Some deep filter research/past games on LS.
I'm going through a few LS games as scum. I have some bad news for all you LS defenders, I think current meta is unreliable in gauging him as town. He actually has a very decent chance of being mafia.
I'm looking at two scum games by LS -
Jack of All Trades - endgamed night 3, mafia victory
TL Mafia LXX Guardians of the Galaxy - lynched day 2, mafia victory
In both games he has played as mafia, and looks decently (at first glance) close to his current playstyle in this game.
Read the Guardians filter in particular and he was downed by a very lucky random tracker role check.
On March 22 2015 12:41 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2015 12:38 Trfel wrote:On March 22 2015 12:33 LightningStrike wrote:On March 22 2015 12:30 Trfel wrote:
Hi LightningStrike,
I truly am sorry about your Grandpa. That is extremely unfortunate.
I hope you don't mind being lynched too much, especially since you already said that you didn't want to play this game any more. Ya I'm sorry I rolled Scum on you Trfel and I wish I didn't have to roll scum with you after Student IV What made you track Holyflare? Also thanks for the condolences everyone from the thread! I tracked you, not Holyflare. That would have been watching Holyflare. To be honest, and this probably isn't going to make you happy, but....
It was a complete and total accident.First I submitted Vivax (as a placeholder), then I changed it to Superbia, then I changed it to you, and then I changed it to VisceraEyes (but that was within 20 minutes of End of Day, so by the rules it didn't count). And I just happened to get the track role (though I suppose a bullet would have done the job as well). Honestly, I didn't see how the rolecheck would be of much use, so I was trying to go for a more outside chance at mafia, one that was more likely to carry KP. You fit as a player who was suspicious, but not overly so, thus a very good chance at carrying KP. A lot of it was based on Damdred's analysis having you as scum, and Superbia's filter not looking that bad to me.So I'm sorry, it was largely an accident. And had it not worked out for me, you guys would be in a much better spot, since I would be an easy mislynch. Damn you accidents T_T
Key areas in this one - Damdred had him as scum in that game. This game, he was going to vote LS and only changed based on the modconfirm. Reliability of metaread? Food for thought. IDK.
In that game, he was straight up tracker checked and you can't really fight a tracker check. IDK.
Now Jack of All Trades - he was clearly coached to play to his town meta this game. This was by geript.
Evidence - postgame mentioning by a teammate
On March 10 2015 10:15 geript wrote:
When I saw the mafia team, I knew I was going to have to try and carry early on. Keir doesn't have time to post much but I was hoping for more from him. Sandroba hates playing as mafia. LS can likely be townread and ignored mostly. Kurumi and Slam were both likely to be lynched for basically doing nothing consistently. So I knew I was going to have to snowball it ideally.
I forget who it was (maybe Epiphany) that called me out for exactly what I was doing on D1, but basically he said: Geript is just trying to push people to shoot 24hrs in, Geript is just trying to stir the pot with people, Geript has no non-bullshit points. It was actually really, really correct on all points. My whole point of D1 was to try and get Rayn and Koshi off balance as much as possible. Call them bad; push other points; make them doubt their reads; etc. It was actually really funny because Rayn was also really, really right when he fingered me (kinky) on N1. Who I ever really say was mafia? I had like 3-4 "suspects" that I just kinda rambled about but was far more interested in arguing, bullying and making it hard for people to think about the game (instead of act emotionally). That would never be my town play. Thus why he had to die.
FWIW, I was never drunk this game. Didn't even go to the mexican place; I was just lazy and faked it. I think Toad took that quote out of context. Because Tube was arguing that I was mafia with Sandroba (tin foil hat is right but for the wrong reasons); I was arguing that if that were the case, I would never let Sandro make the play. BTW, it's a really bad play and he shouldn't have made it (in context of his thread presence).
Town spirit really fucked up something fierce.
LS in this game actually endgamed town. So whoever said that LS has trouble playing as mafia......sorry mate, you are wrong. Dead wrong.
He endgamed in Jack of All Trades and there's a reason.
Further evidence: the game's respective mafia QT.
http://www.quicktopic.com/51/H/Nu9EUQfvt53
geript is completely coaching him to play to his town meta.
Same thing could very well be happening with a potential HTS/LS team. HTS and whoever else could be working with him for the same thing here.
James you might be on to something here. That policy lynch vote very well might be on to a mafia.
TLDR: The current reads right now based on this past performance are unreliable, so at best LS is a coin flip regardless of what people are thinking of this modconfirmation.
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I still feel Trfel has a much greater chance of flipping mafia though.
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Fidei please comment on post 1691, same with Rels when you return based on your last input.
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Did a re-read of James' filter.
Fidei looks a lot more towny in his final two pages of filter. I'm going to say he's town.
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Quick list post:
Town: Shining, Rels, myself
Probable town: Fidei, disformation
Town lean: DYH (NK analysis, thought process not inherently wrong)
Need to read: Fecalfeast (possible bus?)
Probable scum: LS, Trfel
Vote currently on Trfel.
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On December 08 2015 05:54 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 04:00 NocturneMage wrote:
I refute all these posts and particularly the basis for this scumreads based on how I replaced into the game, caught up, towncircled and adjusted reads (and I'm still doing so!!!!), and then he's still on his merry way saying I'm mafia? He uses his own metrics to make these assumptions. I'm on page 8/10 of his filter, he gives two town reads on dyh/ls, and then goes back to just seeing me as public enemy #1.
focusing on absolutely no one else except me and using explanations that don't make me mafia through several points I've refuted him on based on comparison of his play to last game, his approach to me this game, his refusal to see how I process through a town lens, including any reasoning for my change in tone, which I have explained.
he pulled the same shit last game as mafia, stuff that may not be alignment indicative and exclusive scum lens here.
and this all, plus the NKs....
Just kill Trfel.
I know there is mafia #3, I will follow up on James, and I won't ignore a third mafia but just honestly kill Trfel.
Bloody hell. Good stuff on Trfel. Particulary, I didn't understand his change of heart just because of the Damdred NK (Damdred townread NM so he wuold not NK him!) while at the same time saying scum!Shining could have killed Damdred before Damdred realized he's scum. He tried to explain it at first, then said it was a mistake. Let me see if I can find the posts. Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 03:00 Trfel wrote:
This is simply wrong. Damdred said that he wasn't townreading NocturneMage, but he was clearly resistant to the lynch (as he showed on Day 1). And again, scum doesn't care to keep someone who is townreading them alive if that mafia is going to live for a few days.
Like, if The Shining is mafia, he knew that he probably wasn't going to die for a day or two, and that's a lot that could potentially change Damdred's read. Damdred's townread doesn't really mean much and it's okay to kill Damdred, and there's fear that Damdred could figure it out.
But NocturneMage was at a high chance of getting lynched the very next day, in which case Damdred's read on him at that very moment (null being better than everyone else's read, and Damdred had a lot of influence, and wouldn't lynch a null read) would be really valuable. Basically, NocturneMage would just have to stay null or look a little better and Damdred would likely try to stop the lynch.
I already said that this has too many variables and I'm unable to accurately draw a conclusion from the night kill. I believe the reasons by my earlier analysis but I no longer trust the conclusion. If you think I'm scum for being wrong, you should read any one of my town games, because I'm wrong a whole darn lot. Like this is really false. He's first saying he's right that you would not kill Damdred, as Damdred's read would help you survive; when Damdred said he found Moosy's filter NAI and would evaluate you, which is super scary for a scum to hear. Then he's using a kinda opposite reasonning on Shining. Finally, he admits being wrong, which defeats the whole point of this wall of text. There is only one reason Trfel made this post: defend himself against my accusation. He certainly didn't make it to push his reasonning, since he admits at the end his reasonning was wrong.
What do you think of Fidei's reasoning since you left the thread? I think he's town and I think you need to vote Trfel or possibly LS. Take a look at both his post and mine regarding LS and how we got there.
I think you and the rest of this game are dead wrong on giving LS the townreads you are, or he needs to be evaluated differently than people have been doing so. There is precedent for him playing like this as mafia, so the claim that LS has trouble lying as mafia simply does not stand.
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NK analysis implicates Fidei, I get that, but it cannot be the only thing, no? Let me check your last posts.....
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Rels -
On December 07 2015 23:06 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 22:31 NocturneMage wrote:
Rels
Damdred was going back and forth, finding reasons for both rationales of town and mafia Trfel.
I think Trfel is the right vote today, but if you're that suspicious of Fidei aside from the reasons I looked into him, what were your other arguments? None.
On December 08 2015 05:35 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 03:49 NocturneMage wrote:On December 08 2015 01:58 Rels wrote:
I read fidei s filter and everybody should do that, then vote him.
He really is robotic in tone. I will check if that works as the case in his town games, but I see what Palmer meant.
His ls read seems fake. Around eod, "I would lynch him but I would rather lynch other people." After eod, "Rels and disfo are town if ls is town." Then "actually this confirmed town stuff doesn't convince me", when before eod he was not that convinced on ls to begin with. Now he's still pushing ls for ... I don't really know why.
His filter is focused on very few people. I think he's buddying me.
After Hts became the clear lynch, he didn't do anything. He was playing dota all weekend instead of being motivated to play.
Palmar s main target was fidei and he was the nk.
To everyone: please read his filter and report back. I'm marking this for reference because I am looking at this post and there are a slew of things that are throwing me off. Not because I think this post looks scummy but because there is a lot of subjectivity in this read. Tone reads are tone reads. I was taught prior to this game they are very subjective, and generally best for day 1 reads but as a strong meta read through this is day 3? it just seems weak without other evidence like voting analysis etc. or if you can tie the meta to something else. Like when he acts X, he does Y in conjunction with Z. Tie the tone to actions. Tie the tone to effects. Am I making sense? Separate from that however, I will look into the LS read. The unflipped association is really bad but townies also make unflipped association all the time. I pushed LS because he was doing dick all and only such after the fact, and most critically, he failed to push HTS when he found her end of cycle questionable. We both agreed the LS filter was complete trash through the end of day 2, so if LS's game has gotten better (to be fair I stopped reading after the hts lynch) AND if Fidei is continuing to push the lynch, then it does look really bad. I guess it comes down to what work he's put in to get his conclusions. I am putting aside LS for now based on the NKs personally. Back to James focusing on a few people, I can understand as a scum indicative, ignoring time (which can account for town not having the time), it can indicate an agenda. Because mafia need mislynches. I can get that. The same argument however can be made for DYH, but this last thing I looked at him, he doesn't seem to have a lot of time playing the game? Both were making in and out excuses, so only the NK analysis separates those two. To use another example, FF was playing Fallout 4 all weekend. But NKs don't/didn't implicate him, so... Also this term called buddying. I had recently shadowed marvellosity and I asked him a question about the difference between buddying and pocketing. And that they were both related. I didn't understand it in the context you were using it, so I looked it up. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=BuddyingBuddying is a tactic used to subconsciously become perceived as less of a threat by another player. While this is usually done by scum, Townies have been known to do this as well.
This is typically accomplished by the buddying player acting unnaturally friendly to its target, either subtly or outright. Originally, this made it so that once the buddying scum died, it implicated the victim they were acting friendly toward. In addition, by budding up to a victim, they will become less likely to want to lynch the buddying player in the first place. More recently, though, this has become used as a pre-emptive accusation against anyone who acts nicely toward another player, regardless of intent. So I look at this definition Rels, and I am trying to think of a time where Fidei acts "unnaturally friendly" towards you. Lack of scepticism? He explained using meta why he's townreading you but are you saying it's bad meta to townread you or was there another quote that you using to say he's buddying you? I had no idea what buddying really meant. He has a lot of post either talking about me or talking to me. What is your read on LS now then ? Cause that stuff seems to be left without a conclusion. About the lack of time - that's why I precised I saw him on DOTA several times on the weekend. Which is exactly what he did in SOTW 2.
Please take a look at why I think LS might be possible mafia.
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On December 08 2015 09:23 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 08:14 Fidei86 wrote:
I'm not convinced by his read progression towards EOD1. He is on kushmasta, then comes off him "because he starts to do stuff". He then sheeps Damdred onto LS, without giving much reasoning and crucially while asking Damdred pointed questions about his own progression. Ah, I can try to explain my thought process on that. From the top of my hat it went like this: 1. Damdred wants to vote LS (without explanation) 2. I look at LS filter and behold it is bad. 3. Damdred was a town-lean at this point, so while I agree on the filter I want to see where damdred is at, so I can sheep him with confidence. 4. I like damdreds answers upgrade him to a town read (I think I also posted this upgrade) and sheep him onto LS Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 08:36 Fidei86 wrote:
#1570 His read here is actually pretty insightful. It relies upon POE a little bit, but also looking at her read of disfo is pretty smart. Yeah, that is what gives me pause on DYH at this moment. Despite him being wrong on me, this approach is quite fascinating and I just don't see that coming from scum. Meanwhile Trfel's filter is as tough as old boots... not sure if I can finish that before going to bed.
If you can give your opinions on LS/Trfel that would be grand.
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Now the ultimate analysis is whether an LS/HTS/Trfel team makes sense or whether the interactions might be there to support that theory or at least one of those two players. Something for tomorrow.
Also should probably look into Shining's argument about Fecalfeast. It's not a bad one, but Fecalfeast WAS lazy as hell last game too. So I think I need to approach a simple compare and contrast. I know Fecalfeast replaced in for Onegu, for whom from what I could tell appeared to be a straight policy lynch for most people.
All for tomorrow. 2:30am, my time here is done tonight.
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On December 08 2015 08:37 Fidei86 wrote:
Right. Quick game of dota then bed. Will catch up in the am.
Scum.
(joking. just had to say this.)
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stuck on mobile a bit longer.
why in the bloody hell are we voting DoYouHas? Trfel is 1000% more likely to flip mafia.
and LS' case on Fidei is beyond awful.
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On December 08 2015 22:18 LightningStrike wrote:Why James aka Fidei86 is Mafia this game! 1. Past Experience: Granted I only played around 3 games total with James on mafia forum but I had played with him voice too and in both type of mafia games if my memory is right on this: He never tried to policy lynch anyone as town(Himalayas). Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 22:17 Fidei86 wrote:
In terms of solving the game I think we need to focus on Alex/NM, Dani/HTS, LS and Trfel. I am convinced one or both of Alex/Dani is Mafia. I do not think LS is in any way cleared by EOD stuff (there was a big switch going on and he was actually already saved when he posted GG). I love LS, but I think even he would have to admit his play so far has been garbage. Trfel is all over the place, and several people have given reasons why he could be scum. His play style is v v different to anything I've come across before. THIS IS A BLANTANT LIE ABOUT THE BOLDED HE SAW I ACTED IN HIMALAYAS AND DRAMS PLUS SEASON OF THE WITCH 2 IN THOSE 3 GAMES I HAD A ROUGH DAY 1 START INTO THIS TYPE OF GAME. 2. His read progression: His reads were for the most part static. I can confirm he had very static reads in Season of the Witch 2 when he was scum. To illustrate his progression I will put all his read posts just bellow: + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote:
Town
Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.)
Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null
Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read.
Null
Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today.
Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet.
HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels.
Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and
Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote.
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless
Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard"
Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post.
DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read.
Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised. That his first mega read post okay On December 04 2015 06:42 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:42 Rels wrote:On December 03 2015 07:14 LightningStrike wrote:
Okay DAMDRED IS A FUCKING IDIOT WHY FORGOT TO READ I ME BEEN BUT HE READ ME CORRECTLY ALL BUT THE TIME HE BEEN MAFIA.............
Dropping my vote on MD IDK HOME BUT I VT I DON'T TO DIE NOW.
##Vote:MooseyDoosey OK rsoultin read time: angry LS is town LS. Rels is probably town for this. Seems to call Rels on a NAI item for him. On December 04 2015 06:43 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:49 disformation wrote:
Hm, I don't know. I don't really feel the town vibe in his post. Like the capslock turn me off, I guess. Also had to read it twice to guess what his stance on Damdred is.
But I haven't played a game with LightningStrike. I think I shadowed HtS in a game where LightningStrike was gunsmith, but I don't remember/recall him being that emotional.
What gives me a bit of a pause is that now nearly everyone is voting for LS. -.- I think this probably makes disfo town as well. Again potental NAI stuff but from dis this time around even thought dis never played as scum before. On December 04 2015 06:55 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 08:18 The Shining wrote:
Trfel. You think LS is scum now. Especially after his comments regarding lynching Moosy after his flip, but saying he's just voting Moosy to save himself. But you just said NM replaced into a scumslot. Does this mean you think both lynches were scum before the shennany onto kush? Also this. 0.0 didn't think of this this way, but pretty sure TS is town now. See a pattern yet? He handing town reads like candy for reasons that could be replicated from both sides. Plus his read progression on me throughtout was mainly me being scum until earlier this day phase he said he would just policy me. Hint: he never policy lynch people to my knowledge as town. Then he went back to saying I'm scum with no content really changed in that time frame. 3. His HTS distancing: I'll let this post from dis pretty much speak for itself: Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 05:30 disformation wrote:Sry, this will probably end up being a rant on Fidei86's filter.
Hm so while he was suspicious on HtS at the start he then moves to: On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote:
Town
Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.)
Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null
Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read.
Null
Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today.
Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet.
HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels.
Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and
Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote.
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless
Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard"
Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post.
DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read.
Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised.
I have a bit of trouble following his LS progression after that. Like he thinks LS is scum and then votes kush because kush's progression on LS (who he thinks is scum) is scummy?
N1 he also moves back to HtS... On December 04 2015 08:39 Fidei86 wrote:
I'm not scum. One thing I was thinking is that I actually pinged Dani out a while ago for the same sort of thing Alex is saying now. That's not to say that scum can't bus a little ... Obviously I didn't push Dani that hard. But if Alex agreed with my reasoning, surely it makes me unlikely to be her scum buddy?
Also if I was scum I would 100% have shot Dani. Gameplay regardless, scum Fidei shoots HTS n1 every game. Every time. So there's that. Bold part for smiles. After that he talks a bit about a possible LS/HtS team. Seems a bit focused on certain persons. But he admitted to that earlier.
His probing of NM seems town.
On December 04 2015 23:43 Fidei86 wrote:
I am utterly convinced that LS is Mafia. I am willing to accept that Dani is Mafia, although if she flips town we lynch Alex (possibly before LS).
But I will have time this weekend to read some of the outliers (dis might lynch me if I don't at least read DYH again). On December 05 2015 00:20 Fidei86 wrote:
So LS, your scum team is me, DYH and Dani. Except scumming DYH is easy because he has been a low volume poster, scumming Dani is easy because Alex, and scumming me is easy because of OMGUS? All of your reasons for town reading people are "they are towny", or a call back to a past game.
This is a really poorly thought through list that shows no conviction and no intention to solve. LS is Mafia. Does he vote LS? + Show Spoiler +
On December 05 2015 00:25 Fidei86 wrote:On December 05 2015 00:23 LightningStrike wrote:
BTW James you should check my read progression of DYH? I will. I'll also read DYH's filter this evening. Work is slow today, so I've been able to play a lot of Mafia, but it's all phone posting. Still waiting.
On December 08 2015 00:40 Fidei86 wrote:
Gun to my head, on a pure gut read basis, I think the Mafia is likely 2 of LS, Disfo and NM. LS and NM I've discussed. Disfo is something I've been mulling for a while, and it's mostly because I feel all of his posts have tried to look useful but actually haven't been. (Filter dives to follow. I mean it this time). Not sure how "quite a while" translates to "my last mention of him is like super early D2 with a town read", but at least he is looking at more ppl than HtS,NM,LS and Trfel now.
So here we have a bunch of trees. Let mediate a bit on the forest though. Yes he was suspicious of HtS early on. Did he push her hard? No. He seemed very sure about LS being scum. Did he push him? No. Does he vote him? No. He is very focused on a small group on people. Maybe trying to pick one out of the misslynch list? The reads on those people are also kinda constant. Like the scum read on LS. Promised to look at DYH, did play dota instead. While I like his interactions with NM, interactions with other ppl seem to lack a bit. Did he actually push anyone so far? So I'd say his desire to solve the game doesn't seem to be very present. Possible vote candidate. The quote above pretty much showed he distanced himself from HTS after HTS had flipped scum. Conclusion: Pretty much LYNCH WITH FIRE BOYS! ##Vote:Fidei86
(1) no. that bolded sentence refers to Trfel, not you
(2) terrible. you are meta reading him off one game. static reads in of themselves do not make someone mafia. static reads with changing circumstances might though someone mafia, excepting jusitification. Fidei is updating reads. this makes me very suspicious of you. kushm4sta even argued you were using shitty meta to make your pushes day 1. this is so wrong I really don't understand how this could possibly be coming from a town standpoint.
(3) more parroting and like I said before not really adding anything of value to the game. why aren't you looking at his final two pages of filter? why are YOUR reads not changing? why is his activity from last night making him mafia? explain in terms of that.
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there is zero reason for LS to be town, I can't really understand the resistance to the LS lynch, it's off a very bad metric that can be faked (example: trfel faked emotion, but I digress), but we need to lynch trfel today.
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trfel actually made a statement in switching positions that he cannot possibly believe in his realm. the same arguments applied for DYH can be applied 1000x more to trfel from an actualy alignment indicative standpoint.
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On December 09 2015 02:19 Trfel wrote:
Sorry, I've been really busy and I don't think I'll have much (or really, any) time today. Poor time planning.
I don't want to lynch DoYouHas. I think I want to lynch NocturneMage, but no one else seems to want to. To be honest, I don't think that I like any of the current wagons, so I'll vote for NocturneMage.
here's a hint trfel:
+ Show Spoiler +
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On December 09 2015 02:21 Trfel wrote:
Actually, hm, looking really quickly at Rels' filter the last few pages, I think I'd rather lynch Rels.
The way he bounces from target to target and is scumreading all of them doesn't make me think that he actually cares about the lynch.
are you arguing that his reads are not organic enough or he's keeping his options wide open? because if you are I had reached just the opposite conclusion, at least the former.
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On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote?
High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive.
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On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work.
It is absolutely possible that the team is HTS/DYH/Trfel (particularly with Trfel's hard defence of DYH and DYH looking into Trfel, albeit slightly delayed), and I said to Rels that the points on DYH can be sorted, but the evidence against Trfel is more definitive and alignment indicative than what is on DYH.
How likely is another question though and I had tried to make the argument that you always lynch the more likely mafia of the two. HTS was 1000% more likely than DYH yesterday, and Trfel is much more likely than DYH today. he is making a position change that he cannot possibly believe. the bussing argument has been beaten to death, rels needs to explain how the read on me isn't natural because I'm apparently too dumb to see it.
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On December 09 2015 03:08 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. Why wouldn't it make sense (real question) ? What makes sense in that team is that Trfel is scumreading NM but townreading DYH, when there is an association between their strategies D2.
Clarification question - Is this separate from your NM read evolution argument? or is this THE evolution argument?
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On December 08 2015 22:01 Rels wrote:
Man I had forgotten that DYH was scum.
Please vote DYH and let's lynch scum.
I hope that's enough to make you (yes, you, reading this) switch; read his filter and understand why.
Hints:
- what is his only strong read ? Did it start after a replacement of someone special to HTS ? Could scum know NM would push HTS regardless of NM's alignement ?
- how strong is his other reads compared to his main one ?
- what evolution his NM read take ?
- is he doing nothing while tons of people are townreading him and fighting each other ?
I want to make sure I am understand this correctly in relation to what you said on the last page.
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Okay, I read your argument again. You are making the argument their reads make them mafia by association.
Can you break down a position change that is not believable from DYH's realm with respect to his read on me? Can you break down a position or read change with respect to his read on anyone (aside from HTS)?
I am making this argument for Trfel thus I feel Trfel is more likely mafia than DYH.
I'm going to try and read on mobile one more time to make sure I'm not being dumb.
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You ninjaed me (1784). Let me try and follow that then.
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On December 09 2015 03:19 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 03:11 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. It is absolutely possible that the team is HTS/DYH/Trfel (particularly with Trfel's hard defence of DYH and DYH looking into Trfel, albeit slightly delayed), and I said to Rels that the points on DYH can be sorted, but the evidence against Trfel is more definitive and alignment indicative than what is on DYH. How likely is another question though and I had tried to make the argument that you always lynch the more likely mafia of the two. HTS was 1000% more likely than DYH yesterday, and Trfel is much more likely than DYH today. he is making a position change that he cannot possibly believe. the bussing argument has been beaten to death, rels needs to explain how the read on me isn't natural because I'm apparently too dumb to see it. What exactly do you mean with the "position change that he cannot possibly believe." His switch onto Rels just now? His last mention of Rels is this bit at the end of: Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 11:17 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 11:13 The Shining wrote:
Lol I didn't see that post. +1 for agreeing. I don't like silent nights either, I was just poking fun at you with the case comment lol. Whenever you decide to make that case, though, I'll read it but considering I have you both town, and no one has really run interference between you two, my gut tells me it's a town v town kind of thing. Especially since you're under suspicion.
Actually you said a lot of people are suspicious of you. I have a few that come to mind when you say that but who were you referring to? I'm always terrible at trying to understand the "town vs town" or "mafia vs town" or "mafia vs mafia" conclusions that people make with regards to arguments... Can you please walk me through why you think it's town vs town (other than individual reads)? Why would mafia want to "run interference" (assuming you're meaning break up the argument) between two townies scumreading each other? I'm referring to nearly everyone. DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, disformation, NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, and Palmar, I think. Could be wrong on one or two, but either way that is a lot of people.
My query to Rels is regarding DYH, not Trfel.
For my case on Trfel, I made a v long list of read progression late yesterday afternoon, and my main argument to sum it in one sentence was that he uses an argument to determine that moosy's slot was town and then throws in the bussing theory out of nowhere. typically you use supporting evidence before the bussing argument, not the other way around. the rest of trfel's case on me has been utter garbage based on circumstantial evidence.
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so I need to check and weigh two things when I get home. thinking this through.
(1) reads for townreading to bussing stance and then dropping suspicions
(2) timing of stances between suspicion of me.
I know I already looked from the point I replaced in.
I replaced in at 2300 even GMT
0140 (approx) I notice his post minutes before my intro and my comment on HTS later to which he responded. I didn't find anything suspicious at that time because I felt the method to look at kush's reads was normal but I might have been biased because I know how HTS plays her agenda based scumgame.
The amount of time to construct the case on HTS might come into play as well as whatever he said before my replacing in.
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ebwop - misstatement
(2) timing of stances between evolution and suspicion of HTS and how he weighed (if any) the bussing argument on me.
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I get home in about an hour but I really need a pc to sort that part out. This is v painful to do splitting between opera browser tabs and a mobile notepad.
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something came up, and I'm still not able to get to a pc, another 30 min
preferred lynch by far is trfel or ls, preferably trfel, dyh would be a serious compromise but I will not vote him without a filter dive and sorting through rels' concerns
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I'd vote LS but no one else wants to.
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I'm slodging through DYH filter now. I really don't know. I'm even trying to bring OGI knowledge of HTS' doings at home to see if there might be a possibility with the timestamps and even that information is inconclusive.
DYH wrote his case on HTS around 0630 or whatever. I was home before then, HTS was already asleep but I know she was definitely up well past EoD because she had made some food that night, and DYH comes with the first ping at 0140.
He's a damn coin flip based on the HTS case, looking at the read evolution on me...
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On December 09 2015 06:33 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 01:31 NocturneMage wrote:On December 08 2015 22:18 LightningStrike wrote:Why James aka Fidei86 is Mafia this game! 1. Past Experience: Granted I only played around 3 games total with James on mafia forum but I had played with him voice too and in both type of mafia games if my memory is right on this: He never tried to policy lynch anyone as town(Himalayas). On December 04 2015 22:17 Fidei86 wrote:
In terms of solving the game I think we need to focus on Alex/NM, Dani/HTS, LS and Trfel. I am convinced one or both of Alex/Dani is Mafia. I do not think LS is in any way cleared by EOD stuff (there was a big switch going on and he was actually already saved when he posted GG). I love LS, but I think even he would have to admit his play so far has been garbage. Trfel is all over the place, and several people have given reasons why he could be scum. His play style is v v different to anything I've come across before. THIS IS A BLANTANT LIE ABOUT THE BOLDED HE SAW I ACTED IN HIMALAYAS AND DRAMS PLUS SEASON OF THE WITCH 2 IN THOSE 3 GAMES I HAD A ROUGH DAY 1 START INTO THIS TYPE OF GAME. 2. His read progression: His reads were for the most part static. I can confirm he had very static reads in Season of the Witch 2 when he was scum. To illustrate his progression I will put all his read posts just bellow: + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote:
Town
Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.)
Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null
Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read.
Null
Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today.
Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet.
HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels.
Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and
Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote.
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless
Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard"
Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post.
DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read.
Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised. That his first mega read post okay On December 04 2015 06:42 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:42 Rels wrote:On December 03 2015 07:14 LightningStrike wrote:
Okay DAMDRED IS A FUCKING IDIOT WHY FORGOT TO READ I ME BEEN BUT HE READ ME CORRECTLY ALL BUT THE TIME HE BEEN MAFIA.............
Dropping my vote on MD IDK HOME BUT I VT I DON'T TO DIE NOW.
##Vote:MooseyDoosey OK rsoultin read time: angry LS is town LS. Rels is probably town for this. Seems to call Rels on a NAI item for him. On December 04 2015 06:43 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:49 disformation wrote:
Hm, I don't know. I don't really feel the town vibe in his post. Like the capslock turn me off, I guess. Also had to read it twice to guess what his stance on Damdred is.
But I haven't played a game with LightningStrike. I think I shadowed HtS in a game where LightningStrike was gunsmith, but I don't remember/recall him being that emotional.
What gives me a bit of a pause is that now nearly everyone is voting for LS. -.- I think this probably makes disfo town as well. Again potental NAI stuff but from dis this time around even thought dis never played as scum before. On December 04 2015 06:55 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 08:18 The Shining wrote:
Trfel. You think LS is scum now. Especially after his comments regarding lynching Moosy after his flip, but saying he's just voting Moosy to save himself. But you just said NM replaced into a scumslot. Does this mean you think both lynches were scum before the shennany onto kush? Also this. 0.0 didn't think of this this way, but pretty sure TS is town now. See a pattern yet? He handing town reads like candy for reasons that could be replicated from both sides. Plus his read progression on me throughtout was mainly me being scum until earlier this day phase he said he would just policy me. Hint: he never policy lynch people to my knowledge as town. Then he went back to saying I'm scum with no content really changed in that time frame. 3. His HTS distancing: I'll let this post from dis pretty much speak for itself: On December 08 2015 05:30 disformation wrote:Sry, this will probably end up being a rant on Fidei86's filter.
Hm so while he was suspicious on HtS at the start he then moves to: On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote:
Town
Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.)
Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null
Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read.
Null
Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today.
Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet.
HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels.
Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and
Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote.
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless
Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard"
Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post.
DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read.
Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised.
I have a bit of trouble following his LS progression after that. Like he thinks LS is scum and then votes kush because kush's progression on LS (who he thinks is scum) is scummy?
N1 he also moves back to HtS... On December 04 2015 08:39 Fidei86 wrote:
I'm not scum. One thing I was thinking is that I actually pinged Dani out a while ago for the same sort of thing Alex is saying now. That's not to say that scum can't bus a little ... Obviously I didn't push Dani that hard. But if Alex agreed with my reasoning, surely it makes me unlikely to be her scum buddy?
Also if I was scum I would 100% have shot Dani. Gameplay regardless, scum Fidei shoots HTS n1 every game. Every time. So there's that. Bold part for smiles. After that he talks a bit about a possible LS/HtS team. Seems a bit focused on certain persons. But he admitted to that earlier.
His probing of NM seems town.
On December 04 2015 23:43 Fidei86 wrote:
I am utterly convinced that LS is Mafia. I am willing to accept that Dani is Mafia, although if she flips town we lynch Alex (possibly before LS).
But I will have time this weekend to read some of the outliers (dis might lynch me if I don't at least read DYH again). On December 05 2015 00:20 Fidei86 wrote:
So LS, your scum team is me, DYH and Dani. Except scumming DYH is easy because he has been a low volume poster, scumming Dani is easy because Alex, and scumming me is easy because of OMGUS? All of your reasons for town reading people are "they are towny", or a call back to a past game.
This is a really poorly thought through list that shows no conviction and no intention to solve. LS is Mafia. Does he vote LS? + Show Spoiler +
On December 05 2015 00:25 Fidei86 wrote:On December 05 2015 00:23 LightningStrike wrote:
BTW James you should check my read progression of DYH? I will. I'll also read DYH's filter this evening. Work is slow today, so I've been able to play a lot of Mafia, but it's all phone posting. Still waiting.
On December 08 2015 00:40 Fidei86 wrote:
Gun to my head, on a pure gut read basis, I think the Mafia is likely 2 of LS, Disfo and NM. LS and NM I've discussed. Disfo is something I've been mulling for a while, and it's mostly because I feel all of his posts have tried to look useful but actually haven't been. (Filter dives to follow. I mean it this time). Not sure how "quite a while" translates to "my last mention of him is like super early D2 with a town read", but at least he is looking at more ppl than HtS,NM,LS and Trfel now.
So here we have a bunch of trees. Let mediate a bit on the forest though. Yes he was suspicious of HtS early on. Did he push her hard? No. He seemed very sure about LS being scum. Did he push him? No. Does he vote him? No. He is very focused on a small group on people. Maybe trying to pick one out of the misslynch list? The reads on those people are also kinda constant. Like the scum read on LS. Promised to look at DYH, did play dota instead. While I like his interactions with NM, interactions with other ppl seem to lack a bit. Did he actually push anyone so far? So I'd say his desire to solve the game doesn't seem to be very present. Possible vote candidate. The quote above pretty much showed he distanced himself from HTS after HTS had flipped scum. Conclusion: Pretty much LYNCH WITH FIRE BOYS! ##Vote:Fidei86 (1) no. that bolded sentence refers to Trfel, not you (2) terrible. you are meta reading him off one game. static reads in of themselves do not make someone mafia. static reads with changing circumstances might though someone mafia, excepting jusitification. Fidei is updating reads. this makes me very suspicious of you. kushm4sta even argued you were using shitty meta to make your pushes day 1. this is so wrong I really don't understand how this could possibly be coming from a town standpoint. (3) more parroting and like I said before not really adding anything of value to the game. why aren't you looking at his final two pages of filter? why are YOUR reads not changing? why is his activity from last night making him mafia? explain in terms of that. 1. shit I thought it was refering to me. Rip. 2. I always use meta as town for pushing. 3. I did look and what made me think he was scum was his townreading yet wants to policy lynch me like that is huge contradiction. My reads were changing just slowly you jackass.......
please don't go the trfel route, not going to help you
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actually that's not a fair statement, trfel tried to get under me, but I don't recall him swearing, back on topic.
in any case, relax.
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back end of dyh filter
I see he finally did make a conclusion on rels alignment, that was one of my prior reservations but it WAS way after the fact. not conclusive enough, def not over trfel.
continuing...
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On December 09 2015 03:16 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 03:11 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. It is absolutely possible that the team is HTS/DYH/Trfel (particularly with Trfel's hard defence of DYH and DYH looking into Trfel, albeit slightly delayed), and I said to Rels that the points on DYH can be sorted, but the evidence against Trfel is more definitive and alignment indicative than what is on DYH. How likely is another question though and I had tried to make the argument that you always lynch the more likely mafia of the two. HTS was 1000% more likely than DYH yesterday, and Trfel is much more likely than DYH today. he is making a position change that he cannot possibly believe. the bussing argument has been beaten to death, rels needs to explain how the read on me isn't natural because I'm apparently too dumb to see it. He mentioned that he kinda townread you; then he mentioned the NM busing theory makes some sense; then he drops it entirely.
continuing back end of filter. This is entirely true, now to check it in context.
two questions
(1) prioritisation of issues, not clear on how to pursue people - why trfel and fidei, disfo drop was fine because it was the same issue - they can't control what hts does and so they have to look at the interactions from both people.
(2) were some of these statements with thread sentiment, like to blend in?
checking context of thread. might even need to parse a scum game of his.
still really not sure this trumps trfel but damn me if I don't check shit first.
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Still reading folks....reading a couple other filters as well...
Still not seeing a reason to vote DYH over Trfel. Not yet.
Rels I'm not seeing an argument that is more alignment indicative. The whole HTS thing can go either way.
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On December 09 2015 07:13 Trfel wrote:
Change of assumptions.
I'm going to assume that even if I don't know why, the most active/vocal posters are town and mostly wrong.
And the mafia are casually standing by the side, watching and sometimes supporting, but letting others lead.
I think that this points at Fecalfeast. Thoughts?
The same thing applies to LS but he's just posting just to post and the case on Fidei was beyond awful.
I need to re-read his filter last game, can I do that in 40 minutes plus all this other shit....
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Disformation I feel at this time is more bad than mafia but I could be biased here because I'm just as inexperienced at this game as he is. Really not comfortable lynching him today.
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On December 09 2015 07:24 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 07:20 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 07:13 Trfel wrote:
Change of assumptions.
I'm going to assume that even if I don't know why, the most active/vocal posters are town and mostly wrong.
And the mafia are casually standing by the side, watching and sometimes supporting, but letting others lead.
I think that this points at Fecalfeast. Thoughts? The same thing applies to LS but he's just posting just to post and the case on Fidei was beyond awful. I need to re-read his filter last game, can I do that in 40 minutes plus all this other shit.... What makes the LS case any worse than disfos on dyh that was led off with a post made by rels?
LS has 5x the number of games played as disformation. He has a track record of pulling the same shit as mafia as town.
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I thought I made that clear last night. The interactions from his side towards HTS - AGAIN LS'S SIDE TOWARDS HTS - LOOK REALLY BAD.
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I am so bad at explaining things apparently.
In any case, I still prefer Trfel over LS.
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Read 3 DYH scum games.
I don't think I'm going to vote for DYH. This guy to me is a coin flip as far as this game is concerned, so I had to resort to the database.
The only question I have for him is where he is on me, Rels questioned why he dropped his suspicion on me.
He seems a bit tryhard and in the scum games I read, he's using way more WIFOM arguments to make his conclusions. He's not doing it here, here it seems to be lack of activity and followup.
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Shining, re 1842, that's completely wrong. He's been on Moosy/myself since day 1, found a reason to townread the slot then comes up with beyond insane reasons to scumread and then that last post was for complete reasons that don't really make me mafia. It's the same shit again, he takes a bunch of non-alignment indicative bullshit and find some reason to scumread people.
Like he's pushing the easy lynches.....AGAIN.
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Please vote Trfel. There's zero way he's town. Good lord.
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On December 09 2015 07:39 DoYouHas wrote:
I am in the same place on you NM. Your posting gives me the townie vibe. I just noted that it looked like HtS was soft defending Moosy, so I am open to the possibility of you bussing.
Fair enough, I was unclear on that.
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On December 09 2015 07:42 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 07:38 NocturneMage wrote:
Shining, re 1842, that's completely wrong. He's been on Moosy/myself since day 1, found a reason to townread the slot then comes up with beyond insane reasons to scumread and then that last post was for complete reasons that don't really make me mafia. It's the same shit again, he takes a bunch of non-alignment indicative bullshit and find some reason to scumread people.
Like he's pushing the easy lynches.....AGAIN. But last game he hammered that even when no one else was. Here he's at least remotely trying to evaluate others. If he's going for the easy lynches, why is he not on LS then
Because he gave whatever reason to townread LS, he goes back on that now, he looks really bad.
My problem with Trfel is not his position on LS, it's his making a position that is not believable from his point of view. Rels even commented on that last night (EU time).
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On December 09 2015 07:45 Rels wrote:
Let's lynch DYH. Guy poped up 30 minutes before deadline and does not care about the lynch
Not a good reason, mate. He's an American. Americans end of cycle times is like evening rush hour or some shit generally.
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On December 09 2015 07:49 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 07:47 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 07:45 Rels wrote:
Let's lynch DYH. Guy poped up 30 minutes before deadline and does not care about the lynch Not a good reason, mate. He's an American. Americans end of cycle times is like evening rush hour or some shit generally. No but he didn't do shit today. What is your stuff about Trfel changing his LS read ?
No, that was in response to Shining. My response was that if Trfel pushed LS, he'd look bad.
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I could vote Fecalfeast and say fuck it, but it'd be pure yolo.
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Like I really don't know I didn't really get to the guy's filter.
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Thank goodness. Alright then.
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On December 09 2015 08:01 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Final vote count Fecalfeast (3): Trfel, The Shining, disformation Trfel (3): NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, Rels LightningStrike (1): Fidei86 Fidei86 (1): LightningStrike Disinformation (1): DoYouHas Fecalfeast is set to be lynched.
Fecalfeast voting Trfel and not budging probably means Trfel is town. IDK.
I'm bad at this voting analysis shit but I'm going to try...
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On December 09 2015 08:08 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 08:06 The Shining wrote:
You're fucking welcome. Yesssss.
I think disfo is last scum. He switched onto ff too easy. I need to filter check him just in case but I think I have this game figured out. I don't agree. He could sit on DYH if he's scum without a problem. I think DYH is the last scum.
Yeah votes indicate that disformation hammered. IDK.
What is the scum motive to hammer when you are already down the roleblocker?
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On December 09 2015 08:09 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 08:08 Rels wrote:On December 09 2015 08:08 The Shining wrote:On December 09 2015 08:04 Rels wrote:On December 09 2015 08:01 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Fecalfeast (3): Trfel, The Shining, disformation These are confirmed town =D Perfect Not necessarily. Disfo is on my and dyhs radar. And no one wanted to lynch disfo. NM and you both posted a possible Yolo vote on ff so he could've felt the pressure and jumped for town cred Pretty sure he voted before both NM and I said that. I was wrong.
Hmmmm alright.
Well I'll tell you what. We have all of night phase then. I'll look into disformation since you clearly earned that once with this lynch. I had no reason to scumread you before so obviously...
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ebwop - "you" being The Shining.
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Fecalfeast flipped mafia.
He was on Trfel from the off.
Ergo, disformation is more likely than Trfel.
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I think I'm using correct voting analysis. HTS tried to walk through it with me once post-Newbie 14.
We have the outliers but, if I had to isolate those two wagons...
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On December 09 2015 08:20 Fidei86 wrote:
@NM
It has to be one of you and Rels. In what universe does mafia not solidly vote together on a lynch, given that town was so hopelessly fractured (in part my bad).
they vote together like that they'd give themselves away too easily. this wasn't mylo, we have 3 mislynches left. you would be correct in mylo/lylo.
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LS saying vig/cop him as last mafia doesn't really make sense.
I'm going to say disformation and DYH. Which one first, IDK.
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In any case though I'm happy we lynched scum, I'm really frustrated at how play was going before end of cycle.
I felt the way some of the shit I was looking at was counterintuitive for town play. Like how the fuck am I supposed to read the unreadable?
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Any more questions for me let me know. Almost midnight here so I'm doing a round of League to relax and calling it a night.
Night.
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On December 09 2015 08:46 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 08:45 NocturneMage wrote:
In any case though I'm happy we lynched scum, I'm really frustrated at how play was going before end of cycle.
I felt the way some of the shit I was looking at was counterintuitive for town play. Like how the fuck am I supposed to read the unreadable?
How ?? play ?
I'll rephrase. I'll give an example. Like LS as I've been saying all game was doing dick all. I have no idea how I was supposed to ever townread him. Trfel was making no sense either. Like I needed the flip and the votes to figure it out.
Am I making sense?
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In any case, League. I'm out.
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On December 09 2015 18:47 Fidei86 wrote:
The thing I don't understand is how the VCA, in my mind, massively implicates either Rels or Alex. But neither seems to think that it could possibly be the other. ???
It is like I said yesterday, there was no reason for two scum to try and tag the wagon with several mislynches left. Shining's explanation of massive cred needed makes more sense when disformation didn't have enough/much to begin with.
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On December 09 2015 13:33 Trfel wrote:
Hey, NocturneMage...
First of all, I'm sorry. I'd rather not get into exactly why I played like I did, but I really am sorry. My mafia play has way too many problems, and the way my play was towards you and Damdred is definitely one of the larger ones.
I saw something that made me think you were town, I think maybe it was Fecalfeast being willing to lynch you based on my case, while also saying why the case was wrong on several points. It seems like this could be the way that scum treats scum, to set up for a bus while sort of fighting against it, but I feel like it's much more likely that this is scum towards town, saying "here's an easy mislynch" but also setting up an "I told you so" afterwards. In addition to the overall picture showing a ridiculous determination to solve the game, which I have a bad habit of ignoring. Nine times out of ten, the players who are trying really hard and putting in tons of effort really are town, no matter what stupid ideas you come up with that say otherwise.
Anyway, I'd be lying if I said I was completely sure you were town, I'm not really sure of much of anything at this point. But I am sorry, and hopefully we can work together a little more effectively in the future if need be.
It's fine. This was as just as much on me if not more as I would have needed any flip to realise you were town where you saw it before the fact.
The experience part you mentioned post flip I get it. This is my first game with no coaches, 4th overall, the honest plan when I replaced in and saw I was town was to try and lean a little on a town HTS trying to solve this game. That's why I wanted and needed to try and get a read on her ASAP.
Except that plan went out the window in the mere minutes I read her filter to determine she wasn't town. =/
As for yesterday I just felt probability wise someone in the active group had to be throwing us off track. The second paragraph I think I see what you are saying though.
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So the TLDR from Shining's case is that, in context, disformation failed to take an appropriate stance on Dani when the evidence clearly shows he very easily should have.
There were honestly a few things I could see coming from town (eg this game is hard) and I am not quite grasping the point about Dani distancing but overall I think the case makes sense if I understood his central point correctly.
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I see the points Rels you make on FF/DYH....
But
(1) did you look at the interactions in reverse
(2) how are you so sure as to DYH/HTS on the same team like Shining has given the appropriate interactions to make all three of his suggested fit on the scum team. Or are you still on the theory that his case emerged too close to the time of my replacement?
I just felt it was almost equally likely that he could have cased her even without my existence.
I mean I have never played with DYH.
But the methods he used certainly looked valid not like he had TMI. IDK.
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Bah I need to afk for an hour now. Or so.
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On December 09 2015 20:22 Rels wrote:
I would be OK with a disfo lynch though. The last scum is between these two.
Agreed.
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On the topic of blues I doubt we have a vig. I don't know what sort of idiot vig would hold their shot until night 3.
Even someone as inexperienced as me would try and do something with it
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On December 09 2015 22:28 disformation wrote:good afternoon everbody, what is up? Any questions for me?
do you have any responses to the case?
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Also when you have chance, can you answer post 1949?
Where Shining asks what are your next two lynches to win the game?
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On December 09 2015 22:25 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 21:44 NocturneMage wrote:On the topic of blues I doubt we have a vig. I don't know what sort of idiot vig would hold their shot until night 3. Even someone as inexperienced as me would try and do something with it It's like almost confirmed the setup is vet / boxer. The only other way is if there is a cop that checked Damdred or Palmar; in any other case he should have out his check. I don't believe a vig / cop would have held their shots until N3.
I have had one game as cop. I was told by my coach to only claim in 3 situations (1) if I was getting lynched (2) in mylo/lylo with all checks (3) if I got a redcheck and even in that situation, to evaluate for a possible miller or whether you can push that player's lynch without outing the check.
But surely I imagine everyone has different opinions, I guess claiming early does narrow the lynch pool but it seems intriguing to wait it out and then claim in lylo, possibly throwing a wrench in mafia's plans if you are set up for possible mislynch. IDK.
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On December 09 2015 12:54 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 12:47 The Shining wrote:On December 09 2015 12:44 LightningStrike wrote:
Ya I got a Samsung phone that I could post on TL when I not using my laptop or I not at home :D Can you do what I asked earlier of everyone? Who do you think are the next 2 lynches in order to solve/win the game? I thought that was NM not you that asked that? Anyways: James(see my epic fail case but still think he could be mafia) One of Rels/NM if both of them are alive at that point.
I am quite curious. Like I have reasoning to think you are town. But on the Trfel wagon:
(1) myself (pretty damned early)
(2) flipped mafia FF (who sheeped me an hour after I went to bed)
(3) Rels (right at end of cycle)
you can double check the timestamps but I am sure I am close to accurate.
why are you so sure scum would give themselves away like that with 3 mislynches to go?
especially given the timing. for Rels to try and save a scumbuddy with a decent chance of failing, or for FF to sheep me and sit there all cycle doing dick all.
you have approx 25 games under your belt to my 3, surely you are more informed on something I'm not
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On December 09 2015 22:46 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 22:37 NocturneMage wrote:
Also when you have chance, can you answer post 1949?
Where Shining asks what are your next two lynches to win the game? Well. DYH duh. Currently my predictions for the rest of the game are: a) we lynch DYH D4. He flips, red we win.b) we lynch me D4. I flip green. We lynch DYH D5. He flips red, we win. In the off chance that I am wrong on DYH, or we assume a hypothetical situation, where there was no DYH, things get a bit complicated. Trfel looks very good as per the votes from yesterday. You bussing your roleblocker is still a bit too tinfoilly for me. Would also be a sick play, though.The Shining is tunneled town. Still think Rels is town, not 100% here though. So that PoE leaves me with Fidei86 and LS. Fidei86 only started to really try and solve the game, after a few ppl started to get really suspicious of him yesterday. I don't like that LS mostly coasts by off screaming around at EoD and his mighty case, was a 80% rip off of mine. I have to at least sue him for intellectual property theft. :p
If you don't think I bussed my roleblocker, why do you think DYH did?
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Fair enough Rels. I realise this is a mostly open setup, but I have a ways to go with setup spec/mechanics.
HTS tried to explain to me how to balance 13-player games sometime back and I just told her to stop after 5 minutes because my head was spinning. I'm so bad
Anyhow need to afk again, curious to see the full case response disformation.
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I actually have an easy (read: yolo-level) tell to figure out if disformation is scum.
You guys mislynched a blue right? If Dani wasn't so sick she'd have 100% been drinking a lot. Lynching a blue role is big for scum.
Dani always encourages her scummates to drink a lot around end of cycle. Mislynches and nightkills are causes for celebration.
Check to see if disformation was making any drunk posts after the mislynch? Same for dayposts.
Or maybe a few too many typos? That should tell you something.
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I would say try and do the same for DYH maybe but his activity might not have been as high to tell as easily.
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In her first game as mafia, her scumteam lynched the goddamn veteran day 1 (how the fuck they pulled that shit off, fuck if I knew) despite him claiming. It was fucking unbelievable.
Now I already knew she was mafia by then, so it didn't matter but I saw her pour THREE shots of Glenfiddich that game and she just downed them like that.
And I'm just standing there shaking my head.
She has to keep her consumption on the low side now as she recovers and eventually trains for the Boston marathon in April but I'm pretty sure she'd have taken at least one shot MAYBE two had she been well enough.
There is a reason I go insane hard pushing....her endgaming me means (1) I'll never hear the end of it and (2) Dani goes on full whisky rage drinking through post-game.
Don't want to see that happening again, at least in games that I'm in with her.
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That said I think hosts need to stop giving HTS mafia role PMs. That would help massively.
Silly RNG.
On a serious note, though, Trfel in response to 2024, if he thinks Shining is confirmation biasing he needs to come up with a credible way of finding the last scum. I'm still waiting for his response to post 1997 and 2014
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Yes.
In Void, HTS and her team mutually agreed to sacrifice her, and successfully did so, and she kept drinking until her teammates finished the job Day 5.
When they endgamed, she drank like she would if she had been alive.
So we need to finish the job.
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disformation, can you analyse the interactions from both sides? You suspect Rels and DYH, so now do it from those two players sides.
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AFK yet again. Decent chance I might not return until end of cycle.
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On December 10 2015 05:16 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2015 05:07 disformation wrote:On December 10 2015 03:49 disformation wrote:
Rels filter is totally long and hard. Will do that after dinner. The fuck is my brain doing. Rels is like the only one besides me trying to lynch DYH and on multiple occasions. Don't think they can be a couple. Facepalm. Riiiiight. FF and Rels it was. Move along, nothing to see here.
It was after 2100 your time when you made that post. Chances of drunken post? Pretty high
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On December 10 2015 05:51 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2015 05:46 NocturneMage wrote:On December 10 2015 05:16 disformation wrote:On December 10 2015 05:07 disformation wrote:On December 10 2015 03:49 disformation wrote:
Rels filter is totally long and hard. Will do that after dinner. The fuck is my brain doing. Rels is like the only one besides me trying to lynch DYH and on multiple occasions. Don't think they can be a couple. Facepalm. Riiiiight. FF and Rels it was. Move along, nothing to see here. It was after 2100 your time when you made that post. Chances of drunken post? Pretty high You seem to be pretty obsessed with alcohol.
My family is from just north of Milan. So Italian wine 1000%.
What's the shame in that? A bit of sightseeing though and sadly I've turned Dani into a whisky fanatic though. Just fuck it.
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On December 10 2015 05:47 disformation wrote:Rels on FF:
First mention of FF: Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 23:43 Rels wrote:On December 07 2015 23:36 NocturneMage wrote:
actually looking at the way Damdred played the game come to think of it, the same concept I just discussed regarding Palmar applies to him. Plenty of games on him. He had more focus and direction day 1 but night 1 he did dick all, not sure if he was playing with the intention of trying to not be shot or if he was legit busy.
so same question regarding Damdred anyone else (besides LS based on modconfirmation) with reason to dread him? Trfel / Shining / FF are the three players fitting this thing. HTS did too though, so that might apply less on the N1 kill. Not sure about this read though: Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 00:36 Rels wrote:
Well here is my mind right now:
Shining, disfo and LS are town.
Kills points at Trfel and fidei. DYH is also an attractive lynch, but kills don't point to him. Finally, fidei's point about NM's being so sure of HTS the minute he enters the thread makes some sense.
Looks like FF didn't make any list. Means he's likely town. Then he is asked to read FF's filter and comes back with: Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 21:23 Rels wrote:
FF could be scum. Likely partner of that is the case: dyh. At EoD "yesterday" Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 07:47 Rels wrote:
Trfel did too though. I'm OK with both actually
FF and Shining did too. At least Shining has his usual excuse
Yeah, dunno this doesn't look great either. Weird initial town lean into a not very well explained scum read, with 0 interaction. Doesn't like how FF shows up shortly b4 deadline, but doesn't do much about it either.
How about the context of the rest of their play? Between Rels and DYH, who is most likely?
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On December 10 2015 06:03 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2015 05:51 disformation wrote:On December 10 2015 05:46 NocturneMage wrote:On December 10 2015 05:16 disformation wrote:On December 10 2015 05:07 disformation wrote:On December 10 2015 03:49 disformation wrote:
Rels filter is totally long and hard. Will do that after dinner. The fuck is my brain doing. Rels is like the only one besides me trying to lynch DYH and on multiple occasions. Don't think they can be a couple. Facepalm. Riiiiight. FF and Rels it was. Move along, nothing to see here. It was after 2100 your time when you made that post. Chances of drunken post? Pretty high You seem to be pretty obsessed with alcohol. Well HTS is almost a alcoholic based on the fact that she showed us her whiskey so of course he might be obsessed with alcohol :o
I don't think you know her well. She cannot drink much at all in general, so whatever it has to be, has to be good.
She's not obsessed, just a bit....discerning taste if that makes sense.
Also that pic in her scumclaim I think she'd just had pulled that off somewhere, I know we don't have that much Talisker lying around. No way.
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Somehow I doubt that LS, she's not a fan.
What do you prefer (assuming you are old enough, I know the age is too high in the us)?
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Rels, Trfel alluded to the same element in his apology to me last night. He said again he didn't want to go into it. Not sure why.
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So disformation would probably be lynching Rels and DYH in that order. Got it.
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On December 10 2015 06:37 NocturneMage wrote:
So disformation would probably be lynching Rels and DYH in that order. Got it.
Wait no, I don't have that right. DYH and Rels in that order.
Folks, I am sober, I swear.
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On December 10 2015 06:52 disformation wrote:
Ah, will also take a look at Fidei86 tomorrow. Kinda sleeping on him a bit again. xD
But you were so sure about DYH?
Most people are sure it's you over DYH, and a lot of the things said are really 50/50 between you and him.
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Like at the moment you are probably scummier than DYH, because the part I disagree about the HTS case is not as alignment indicative as Rels is making it out to be. I tried to determine that at end of cycle last night. and it wasn't conclusive.
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Like Rels is wrong, not scummy for it. I see where he's coming from, but in my mind I tried to isolate my bias/meta knowledge from the case. And I think if it was any other player than Dani, I would say the lacklustre posting day 1 could be suboptimal town, but the end of cycle vote switching was quite mafia indicative.
Someone with the experience that he has (per database) it's reasonable to conclude he could come up with the information on his own.
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The meta from scum games is quite different. There was no way I could justify voting DYH last night.
And Fidei voted down HTS. There was no discussion.
And Shining created a decent case for which you had to change positions. You holding out wasn't good for you.
So Fidei was off wagon last night, he was partying last night and admitted he couldn't do the research.
That's not alignment indicative. So what else changed?
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At some point in the discussion even he said he "could" vote Fecalfeast.
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Yes DYH with that last sentence.
I know Fidei autopiloted day 2. Everyone did. Day 3, he went through several filters and we had a thing to do on LS.
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Fidei's arguments on LS were quite good, LS was completely useless most of the game. There was nothing scummy about that. There's interactions and there's rest of play.
It makes perfect sense for him to townread people and then policy lynch someone that he was least sure of being town and had many scummy traits about him, and his position was he didn't find LS's emotions believable. Hell, I didn't either.
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I'm just having fun...and kind of bored.
.......well trying to.
That and I'm trying to play League. Dani went to bed early, so yay some free time.
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Well okay, I'm not drunk but I had a glass of chianti.
Er, okay I lied, maybe two glasses of chianti.
But I'm still sober
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Anyhow I don't think I'm voting DYH tomorrow. Meh, I can't conceive it. Not from the voting.
*offers Trfel a glass of wine*
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Alright, maybe I'll go for a third glass. Because I can.
Playing League might not be a good idea then, but eh....fuck it.
afk for 5 minutes.
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On December 10 2015 07:42 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2015 07:40 disformation wrote:On December 10 2015 07:36 NocturneMage wrote:Well okay, I'm not drunk but I had a glass of chianti. Er, okay I lied, maybe two glasses of chianti. But I'm still sober Yeah, yeah. Complains about her drinking whisky, busts out the wine as soon as she goes to bed. He got to 1 up her some how lol...
I would have preferred a town HTS, but I do relish lynching her when she is mafia. There's a story behind it...
I have a much greater tolerance than she does though. Unfortunately she prefers Spanish/German wine or a good Bordeaux to Italian. Damn me.
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On December 10 2015 07:45 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2015 07:26 NocturneMage wrote:
Fidei's arguments on LS were quite good, LS was completely useless most of the game. There was nothing scummy about that. There's interactions and there's rest of play.
It makes perfect sense for him to townread people and then policy lynch someone that he was least sure of being town and had many scummy traits about him, and his position was he didn't find LS's emotions believable. Hell, I didn't either. How does that make sense? Lynching people who you think are town is so scummy....
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On December 10 2015 07:45 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2015 07:26 NocturneMage wrote:
Fidei's arguments on LS were quite good, LS was completely useless most of the game. There was nothing scummy about that. There's interactions and there's rest of play.
It makes perfect sense for him to townread people and then policy lynch someone that he was least sure of being town and had many scummy traits about him, and his position was he didn't find LS's emotions believable. Hell, I didn't either. How does that make sense? Lynching people who you think are town is so scummy....
Everyone was screaming meta in your defence, he had a good argument against it
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Sorry Trfel didn't realise you weren't old enough.
Oh well another glass of wine for me
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On December 10 2015 06:27 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2015 06:03 NocturneMage wrote:On December 10 2015 05:51 disformation wrote:On December 10 2015 05:46 NocturneMage wrote:On December 10 2015 05:16 disformation wrote:On December 10 2015 05:07 disformation wrote:On December 10 2015 03:49 disformation wrote:
Rels filter is totally long and hard. Will do that after dinner. The fuck is my brain doing. Rels is like the only one besides me trying to lynch DYH and on multiple occasions. Don't think they can be a couple. Facepalm. Riiiiight. FF and Rels it was. Move along, nothing to see here. It was after 2100 your time when you made that post. Chances of drunken post? Pretty high You seem to be pretty obsessed with alcohol. My family is from just north of Milan. So Italian wine 1000%. What's the shame in that? A bit of sightseeing though and sadly I've turned Dani into a whisky fanatic though. Just fuck it. Ah, yes. I think she mentioned that once. Must have been the time she told me she likes Riesling (German white wine from the region I live in). Show nested quote +On December 10 2015 06:04 NocturneMage wrote:On December 10 2015 05:47 disformation wrote:Rels on FF:
First mention of FF: On December 07 2015 23:43 Rels wrote:On December 07 2015 23:36 NocturneMage wrote:
actually looking at the way Damdred played the game come to think of it, the same concept I just discussed regarding Palmar applies to him. Plenty of games on him. He had more focus and direction day 1 but night 1 he did dick all, not sure if he was playing with the intention of trying to not be shot or if he was legit busy.
so same question regarding Damdred anyone else (besides LS based on modconfirmation) with reason to dread him? Trfel / Shining / FF are the three players fitting this thing. HTS did too though, so that might apply less on the N1 kill. Not sure about this read though: On December 08 2015 00:36 Rels wrote:
Well here is my mind right now:
Shining, disfo and LS are town.
Kills points at Trfel and fidei. DYH is also an attractive lynch, but kills don't point to him. Finally, fidei's point about NM's being so sure of HTS the minute he enters the thread makes some sense.
Looks like FF didn't make any list. Means he's likely town. Then he is asked to read FF's filter and comes back with: On December 08 2015 21:23 Rels wrote:
FF could be scum. Likely partner of that is the case: dyh. At EoD "yesterday" On December 09 2015 07:47 Rels wrote:
Trfel did too though. I'm OK with both actually
FF and Shining did too. At least Shining has his usual excuse
Yeah, dunno this doesn't look great either. Weird initial town lean into a not very well explained scum read, with 0 interaction. Doesn't like how FF shows up shortly b4 deadline, but doesn't do much about it either. How about the context of the rest of their play? Between Rels and DYH, who is most likely? You mean into the context of whose play I find to be more scummy? Well, I didn't wrote that case on DYH for nothing. Hm, maybe I'll look into Rels once more, but his overall game so far has striken me as being rather townie.
Hmmmmmm.......
Did she tell you this in the mafia QT by any chance?
Commence drunk post analysis!
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lol LS, Fidei isn't scum.
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On December 10 2015 07:54 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2015 07:52 Trfel wrote:On December 10 2015 07:49 NocturneMage wrote:Sorry Trfel didn't realise you weren't old enough. Oh well another glass of wine for me Oh my.... I think it would be a good idea to change the night kill to yourself. This play clearly optimizes your chances of winning. + Show Spoiler +If he's drunk enough, maybe he'll fall for it! XD I had seen a mafia roleblocker roleblock himself when the KPMG was delivered not factional :O
OH GOD WHY DID YOU HAVE TO REMIND ME.
That wasn't me, but I was on that particular scumteam.
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Is it 2300 yet? I don't think I can play League this tipsy now.
LOL that typo LS.
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On December 10 2015 07:57 LightningStrike wrote:
Sigh I mean n00bking not nibbling....
Sure, you're tipsy.
Scumpoints for you
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2259? I think we should all vote disformation tomorrow.
I think.
*drinks another glass of wine*
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I am not sober enough to read but I'm sober enough to vote.
##vote disformation
I'll be back in the morning. Ah, fuck it.
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btw ggs Trfel, my mistake again for massive fail reading you.
good night.
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On December 10 2015 09:03 Blazinghand wrote:Vote Count disformation (1): NocturneMage DoYouHas (1): disformation Not Voting (5): DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, NocturneMage Currently disformation is set to be lynched.This Day ends at Friday, Dec 11 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) aka 23:00 GMT (+00:00).
Lynch Voting is done in the voting thread (here). Do not PM me your vote.
Voting is mandatory. You may not abstain.
I wasn't aware I got a free vote. Cheers mods.
##vote disformation
In seriousness, I'll be around I want to say midnight-ish my time to read further/discuss (looking more into more indicative evidence if any on Rels case ATM I'm not sure I understand) if people are around.
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I'm here. Going to try and do some reading.
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Skimmed from night 3 to disformation, your rebuttal to Shining's case.
So in summation you think Shining is tunnelling/confirmation bias on you. You proposed that if you got mislynched and town were wrong on both you and DYH, that LS and Fidei are the next likely mafia. What are you gauging them at as they do things through this cycle?
Can you make an argument for either of them making the plays they have as mafia? Any voting arguments or motives from those two in your own words? I haven't seen much in the way from you, from others yes, but not from you. (If you have, just quote it, thanks.)
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Rels, now I think I see what you are saying. You are saying that Fecalfeast engaged in some sort of soft pushing on DYH.
DYH hardly touched FF, if at all. double checking his filter.
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Alright, Rels, I think you have a valid point here. I'm reading the filter and it's lately solo focus on disformation.
Trfel has since flipped town.
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DYH, I have a question for you.
Let me give you this hypothetical scenario.
You are town. Let's say disformation is lynched, and he flips town.
Who is likely to be scum in that situation and why?
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Fidei is falling off, but it's a 50/50 between real life, which tbf it's the holidays. Whatever.
Nothing to me has screamed scummy except the Dani softing d2 (if he should be scum).
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On December 09 2015 05:07 Fidei86 wrote:
This party is going on and I won't have time to read more filters. Please move on to LS. I will consolidate if it's clear its Trfel or DY, but I don't want to lynch either of them right now.
On December 09 2015 06:31 Fidei86 wrote:
I would vote FF if nobody wants to join my LS lynch. But I don't really want to vote for DYH. I'd vote Trfel over him.
This makes James less likely to be mafia.
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On December 09 2015 08:20 Fidei86 wrote:
@NM
It has to be one of you and Rels. In what universe does mafia not solidly vote together on a lynch, given that town was so hopelessly fractured (in part my bad).
On December 09 2015 18:47 Fidei86 wrote:
The thing I don't understand is how the VCA, in my mind, massively implicates either Rels or Alex. But neither seems to think that it could possibly be the other. ???
the position has been explained to James twice that mafia wouldn't give themselves so easily away unless it was mylo or lylo with a confirmed mafia already on the same wagon with them.
Is Fidei bad or mafia here? Looking at the votes alone you can argue that LS thinks scum played suboptimally. But both Rels and I have reasons to townread the other besides the voting. The second part is contradictory.
Granted James is out of touch with the thread. Hmmmm.
I'm going to say for now, suboptimal and pressed for time, as opposed to mafia.
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I don't want to vote for dyh until I see a response from him to my question (post 2144) and Rels' latest argument against him.
He's an American so I do not expect that response to come for awhile. It's 2am here, so I will sort it out in the morning.
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If Shining is mafia, he'll never be caught. If Shining is mafia he's playing a spectacular game. IDK.
If it's 2-1 lylo and Shining is alive I would lynch him. That would be my instinct.
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I don't like DYH's response to me, I would have further asked him to provide a more non-WIFOM answer to what I stated.
The first nightkill I'm pretty sure can be attributed to HTS (to some extent).
Aggregate WIFOM analysis is perfectly fine but outside this (and aside the fact Rels is already voting DYH though tbf it's not really OMGUS) why is Rels mafia?
This is why timezones suck.
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On December 11 2015 11:14 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2015 10:45 NocturneMage wrote:
DYH, I have a question for you.
Let me give you this hypothetical scenario.
You are town. Let's say disformation is lynched, and he flips town.
Who is likely to be scum in that situation and why? Rels, definitely rels. I'm actually considering him being potentially more likely than disfo. Trfel's death points his direction. He has push cases and suspicions almost exclusively on townies. He defends or doesn't interact with scum.
On December 11 2015 13:57 DoYouHas wrote:
Look at night kills:
Damdred- Read as townie by majority of players, killed when he has few scumreads or pushes going.
Palmar- Difficult lynch, killed before he starts really solving the game
Trfel- Essentially confirmed town, no reads going into the day
The common thread for every kill has been someone who would be difficult to lynch but could also come at the game with a new perspective. This implies that scum is less threatened by the current sentiment of the thread and more worried about an unknown element coming in and screwing things up.
The person that fits this mentality the best atm is Rels. There is the added benefit that Trfel was also one of the most likely among us to suspect and push Rels.
It is a bit WIFOM, but adding the fact that disfo hammered ff to the fact that Shining is still with us, my money is on Rels flipping scum over disfo.
##Vote: Rels
I'll be honest, I took a look at Rels filter last cycle but if you reappear can you explain what exactly about his pushes makes Rels mafia? I get the aggregate WIFOM analysis. I get that.
How are you distinguishing between a townie push that is straight up wrong and mafia push?
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Like I have looked at DYH's argument for pushing HTS. It was similar to mine with less meta.
Like if I look at a random player John Smith that might have pulled the same performance as HTS day 1 and end of cycle, I would say something of the sort that it could be someone honestly struggling to flesh out alignments. The lack of strong conclusions would make me worry and warrant a cop check. This is what I'd think.
But the end of cycle behaviour in all forms was mafia indicative. Like if I'm the least experienced player and can figure that shit out, I am pretty sure most players here can. The DYH argument doesn't strike me as odd. Or TMIish.
But the timing?
I pieced together what HTS might have done when she was at home sick. Tried to use OGI and really got nowhere. But there's no telling who she was in qt with, or when they voted.
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I disagree on the voting theory but whatever.
I have no problem taking a mislynch if people are so sure and thinking that I bussed Dani. I can readily understand why people are sceptical that I have a god tier read on her, and especially for those that don't know us well.
Does anyone know how good Rels is at mafia? I think he endgamed once?
I'll carry on reading filters.
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On December 12 2015 02:10 Fidei86 wrote:
BTW if it's LS then I reserve the right to kick you all in the nuts. After I've kicked myself in the nuts.
Don't kick me in the nuts please. I very much wanted to lynch him as well last cycle.
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On December 12 2015 02:10 NocturneMage wrote:
Like I have looked at DYH's argument for pushing HTS. It was similar to mine with less meta.
Like if I look at a random player John Smith that might have pulled the same performance as HTS day 1 and end of cycle, I would say something of the sort that it could be someone honestly struggling to flesh out alignments. The lack of strong conclusions would make me worry and warrant a cop check. This is what I'd think.
But the end of cycle behaviour in all forms was mafia indicative. Like if I'm the least experienced player and can figure that shit out, I am pretty sure most players here can. The DYH argument doesn't strike me as odd. Or TMIish.
But the timing?
I pieced together what HTS might have done when she was at home sick. Tried to use OGI and really got nowhere. But there's no telling who she was in qt with, or when they voted.
ebwop - NOT end of cycle. the performance day 1 was less mafia indicative, but the end of cycle was very much mafia indicative.
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you mean party tonight? enjoy yourself. I'm going out soon as well, so I will have a vote in but will be on mobile. hopefully we can wrap this up tonight.
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On December 12 2015 02:24 Fidei86 wrote:
Also if DYH was mafia I think he'd be piling on disfo, rather than switching randomly to Rels.
yeah this is a good point as well.
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??????
I see what you are saying (not really piling on) but Shining seemed all out to vote for disformation. I also voted disformation very early on in the cycle (no strikethroughs???? check the voting thread, I know I voted disformation right on the day post)
Meh.
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On December 12 2015 02:27 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2015 02:25 disformation wrote:On December 12 2015 02:22 Fidei86 wrote:@Alex Rels is god-tier mafia player. Probably one of the best on the site at the moment, or definitely the best in recent memory. I really think Rels is the last mafia here. Partly it's my POE, on the grounds that I think it's probably someone who was on Trfel, and I don't want to kill Alex yet because the big bus he planned is a bit too yolo for me to believe in. I just skimmed Rels' filter really quickly. It's not really indicative. But he barely says anything about FF really (at least not early on - I made it to page 7 before I ran out of steam). And his interactions with HTS I found really weird. He kept following on her posts with further comments. Or someone would be talking about her, and he'd be like "oh, well that's interesting, what do you think about other random townie". Also he got onto HTS totally randomly, having been wildly fluctuating around between DYH and Trfel. I recognise that this isn't exactly the most artfully put case ever. And it sort of contradicts what I've said about Rels before. THe truth is, he has a 15 page filter but I don't think he's said that much that is particularly compelling. The argument the other way is that Rels is super amazing at mafia and usually when he's mafia he's hyperactive. He is playing very differently this game, for sure. But the POE is strong. ##Vote:RelsI have to go to my Xmas Christmas Party tomorrow. Then I will sleep for approx. 1,000 yrs tomorrow. But when I wake up I will be ready to either celebrate the victory, or else figure out which of you other bastards is actually mafia arent you christmas partying all week already? My poor liver. RIP.
More partying for us next week, but I think I'm probably going to suffer most when we head to the US for the holidays. One week of non-stop partying. Might not be a good thing for me.
anyhow, enjoy.
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I think I'm going to answer for myself whether his pushes on people were town or not. I know Rels was like fuck it or alright or whatever on HTS. It fits the picture of someone not influential (that cycle) to bus her as DYH and I were leading the lynch on Dani if that should be the case.
He was hard defending her for checking LS meta end of first cycle. I saw through that based on meta but I can see if someone were to say, she's probably town for that by mistake as a townie.
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On December 12 2015 02:35 Fidei86 wrote:I meant this cycle. Or is the vote tally not up to date?
It is up to date, however it does NOT account for my voting disformation and then unvoting him. That's why I felt your point on DYH "piling on" was a good one. I was already on him. Check the voting thread.
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On December 12 2015 02:35 Fidei86 wrote:I meant this cycle. Or is the vote tally not up to date?
On December 10 2015 08:09 NocturneMage wrote:
##vote disformation
On December 10 2015 13:19 DoYouHas wrote:
##Vote: Disformation
On December 11 2015 10:45 NocturneMage wrote:
##unvote
I'm not going insane, am I?
I'm sober now, I was drunk last night phase, but....
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On December 01 2015 18:41 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 18:16 Trfel wrote:
I kind of want to lynch The Shining, but that seems like a very bad idea right now. He's put in a bunch of effort (regardless of alignment) on a busy day for him. Most of the problems that I have with his posts are wording, tone, and a bit of consistency, which aren't the most reliable. I do feel that his posting somewhat fits mafia motivation, but I'm nowhere near confident enough to be happy lynching him now. I feel that The Shining's alignment will become very clear with a bit more time. 1 - this is sooooo non commital. 2 - we're right on the period Shining has no internet. So I have no idea what additionnal info you will have when he AFK for 24 hours.
Page 1 of filter
Is Rels trying to make something out of nothing? Trfel is already saying that lynching the Shining is a "very bad idea RIGHT NOW"
I want to say second question from Rels is asking this for the sake of asking.
Trfel has already commented on what has already been doing on Shining regardless of lack of internet, so that content should be up and fair game to evaluate.
I don't think this statement even needed to be made honestly, even Trfel said "more time" regardless of what the reason was for, he wasn't all on it either.
Mafia indicative. Moving on.
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On December 01 2015 18:50 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 18:44 Trfel wrote:On December 01 2015 18:41 Rels wrote:On December 01 2015 18:16 Trfel wrote:
I kind of want to lynch The Shining, but that seems like a very bad idea right now. He's put in a bunch of effort (regardless of alignment) on a busy day for him. Most of the problems that I have with his posts are wording, tone, and a bit of consistency, which aren't the most reliable. I do feel that his posting somewhat fits mafia motivation, but I'm nowhere near confident enough to be happy lynching him now. I feel that The Shining's alignment will become very clear with a bit more time. 1 - this is sooooo non commital. 2 - we're right on the period Shining has no internet. So I have no idea what additionnal info you will have when he AFK for 24 hours. What part of the "not lynching The Shining" part did you miss? I thought I read "I kind of want to lynch The Shining" somewhere in that post. This part about Shining reads to me as "I'm OK lynching Shining but I'll need someone to convince me."
meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
I didn't read that as that way at all. Trfel is already making conclusions on what is already out there.
"I feel that The Shining's alignment will become very clear with a bit more time." tells me there will be enough information for trfel to make a better conclusion.
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On December 01 2015 19:19 Rels wrote:
fidei you're saying HTS is not really pushing the people she thinks are scummy right ?
On December 01 2015 19:43 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 19:24 Fidei86 wrote:
Um, not quite. It's more of a total gut read from me, that she's not being candid with her thoughts. You and she both know that she's my favourite person on this site by miles, so I'm not going to just blindly tunnel her. I just wondered if anyone else agrees with my thinking. I reread her posts. Can you give me some examples ?
On December 01 2015 22:16 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 21:45 Fidei86 wrote:
@Rels
I have looked over HTS' posts, and I am more okay with #209 now that I've read it a few times. There's nothing particularly objectionable in there.
At #219, I disagree with her read on the Palmar / Shining interaction. There is something very strange about Shining's progression, and HTS just skates past it.
She then at #224, #237 and #246 goes forward and then back on on Trfel. She asks Shining about people other than Palmar, but noticeably doesn't ask Palmar about people other than Shining.
I know that HTS is very much a fan of Palmar's scum play. I know that she has previously had him as a coach and that she generally speaks highly of him as a player. It is strange to me that she almost specifically avoids interacting with him, or making any comments about him. Honestly, if she can't read him, it seems like the rest of us don't have a chance.
None of the above is a guaranteed scum-tell. But I find it somewhat suspicious. Town HTS nitpicks as well, but I just always get the sense that she is going somewhere with her thoughts. That seems lacking to me. I don't agree with #219's analysis. I relate to her because I also don't know if what Palmar brings on Shining is really incriminating. I don't agree with Trfel's back and forth being scum indicative. She asked a question, got told by Trfel she didn't understand correctly his meaning, and backed off. I don't understand the Shining / Palmar difference. Why is HTS asking Shining his reads and not Palmar is scum indicative ? I agree with HTS' post lacking something though. She comes into the thread with two scumleans; interacts with the two of them; then leaves without a list or anything.
Possible distancing from HTS? I can see this coming from both alignments. It appears that in context, HTS did correct Fidei on his perspective, which he acknolwedged, so I don't know...
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Distancing is a common tactic to avoid pairing with other members of your Faction. It is most commonly done by Anti-Town factions such as Mafia, but can also be used by Masons to avoid being night-killed as a confirmed pro-town player, if their Mason buddy has been lynched.
It involves putting oneself at odds with one's partner(s), either by disagreement over a third party, or by direct conflict against each other. The effectivness of this technique is often based on timing and the quality of performance from the players distancing themselves from each other.
At times, such heavy distancing is used that it leads to one of the distancers being lynched. This is a common tactic among Scum known as Bussing.
From mafia scum wiki. Alright, I had the right definition in mind. I think I need to see more instances of that to be more sure of distancing though. Hmmmm.
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On December 02 2015 01:32 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 01:27 Trfel wrote:On December 01 2015 18:50 Rels wrote:On December 01 2015 18:44 Trfel wrote:On December 01 2015 18:41 Rels wrote:On December 01 2015 18:16 Trfel wrote:
I kind of want to lynch The Shining, but that seems like a very bad idea right now. He's put in a bunch of effort (regardless of alignment) on a busy day for him. Most of the problems that I have with his posts are wording, tone, and a bit of consistency, which aren't the most reliable. I do feel that his posting somewhat fits mafia motivation, but I'm nowhere near confident enough to be happy lynching him now. I feel that The Shining's alignment will become very clear with a bit more time. 1 - this is sooooo non commital. 2 - we're right on the period Shining has no internet. So I have no idea what additionnal info you will have when he AFK for 24 hours. What part of the "not lynching The Shining" part did you miss? I thought I read "I kind of want to lynch The Shining" somewhere in that post. This part about Shining reads to me as "I'm OK lynching Shining but I'll need someone to convince me." Under normal circumstances, I'd be suspicious of The Shining here and would be maybe willing to lynch him Day 1. However, since The Shining probably won't be able to play much today, and wasn't 100% there yesterday, I think that giving him a Day 1 pass is probably best. Sorry that wasn't clear in my initial posts.
Is anyone else kind of suspicious of Rels? The way that he has been throwing suspicions at everyone feels like he's trying to keep his options open to lynch anyone he chooses. I don't recall him posting a single townread (which isn't that important), but the way he's been pressuring so many people without follow through or without a serious push seem so strange. The vote on DoYouHas feels extremely opportunistic, as well. I was really hoping that DoYouHas wouldn't be brought up for a while, I wanted to see what he did if he wasn't bothered. I remember checking the exact same thing that Rels mentioned earlier, and I'm not entirely on board, but I'll let DoYouHas speak for himself. Yep I'm suspicious of too many people. I would lynch Damdred or DYH right now; fidei is weird; HTS' post on LS makes a lot of sense. Onegu and kush are useless.
There was a decent sequence between him and Damdred that seemed okay-ish or at least fleshed out. It seemed based on a lot of meta but I don't think that's mafia indicative for Rels. I think this becomes more mafia indicative depending on how his end of cycle was. I could agree with the DYH vote the time it was made, policy vote announcements are not really alignment indicative. He's got two lynches here, a scumlean in Fidei resumably. Not thinking this is mafia indicative.
Don't think this post is a good one at all to scumread DYH now that I think of it. Whart are the compositions of the towns? Was he vigged? I'm not looking at through those games, but these conclusions don't address those circumstances. Circumstantial at best.
If he's making an argument that DYH is trying to break meta (this is possible) he has to weight that against his current gameplay. I've been 50/50 on DYH gameplay at worst.
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On December 09 2015 07:57 disformation wrote:
##unvote
##vote Fecalfeast
On December 09 2015 07:59 Rels wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote Trfel
Could Rels really say he thought as I did to yolo FF and then vote Trfel? Mafia probably would have voted FF first I think if Shining's theory is true?
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On December 03 2015 20:40 Rels wrote:
To the potential cop / vig, since we cannot have both: I would use my ability on this group:
DYH, NM, Palmar.
I wouldn't vig Damdred, but I would cop check him since he cannot be GF if a cop is in the setup.
This could be potentially mafia indicative if DYH is lynched and flips town. I know I'm town and Damdred/Palmar have since flipped.
In his defence, Palmar's end of cycle was bad. though.
On December 05 2015 00:44 Rels wrote:
Alright. ##Vote HTS
This is just really.....IDK. He was townreading her hard based on end of cycle, and DYH and I were leading the lynch.
I'm about halfway through Rels' filter. I'm voting him for now. But I'm going to try and come back roughly 30-45 or whatever and pick up on things or if something jumps at me one way or another.
On a re-read and refocus there are a few things I don't see and a few things that are creating doubt. The two minute time gap is too small between disformation's vote on FF and his vote on Trfel, but at the same time there was no telling if someone else could have potentially hammered Trfel. This is where I might be willing to buy into LS's theory of scum possibly screwing this up.
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mobile, catching up. but I'm here.
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and trying to pick back up on Rels' filter as well.
I'm honestly grappling here. There is nothing right now that is screaming mafia about DYH. I really feel the case being made against him is 50/50 at best. I tried lining all shit up, I tried isolating his case against hts, like I said time and again there's an equal possibility he could have pushed the Dani lynch on his own. there are certain elements of her play that could have allowed him to do this.
my other hesistancy is that the points being made is that ff is the one making the points and dyh never got to him for all I could tell. like I thought and thought, I mean I could honestly see this go either way. ff can spout off whatever.
scum have a general generic tendency to fall off but this, dyh just seems like someone who is damned busy to play.
the only thing that jumps at me is voting disformation in the event that disformation is town but that's unflipped association.
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and rels, I'm not guilty of overexplanation. overthinking yes, but not overexplanation. I am trying to process your massive filter both possible viewpoints and I had a dinner date with Dani, and I had to go, end of. there are certain things giving me pause. that was the entire purpose of the walkthrough. gah.
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like honestly what even IS overexplanation from a mafia side of things? that was something I didn't get when palmar got kush lynched for that. meh, fuck it. plowing on.
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On December 09 2015 08:01 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Final vote count Fecalfeast (3): Trfel, The Shining, disformation Trfel (3): NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, Rels LightningStrike (1): Fidei86 Fidei86 (1): LightningStrike Disinformation (1): DoYouHasFecalfeast is set to be lynched.
this is what I mean rels. off wagon, solo vote. this is regarding dyh.
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On December 12 2015 07:44 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2015 07:43 Rels wrote:On December 12 2015 07:43 Rels wrote:On December 12 2015 07:40 NocturneMage wrote:
the only thing that jumps at me is voting disformation in the event that disformation is town but that's unflipped association. what can you expand 'cause if disfo is town, DYH is mafia by your analysis if disfo is mafia, well he's mafia so you should be voting one of them
sigh that was from a poe standpoint. we don't know and dyh was on him for awhile.
like I said last cycle I really feel someone is quite active or throwing us off track and my mind is spinning going through your filter.
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I'm going to go ahead and give final reads then if I'm getting lynched.
I am thinking Shining is town.
My gut is saying that DYH is town. I broke the guy's filter sideways. Rels' case against him is 50/50 at best.
disformation is probably playing suboptimal as fuck but my caution on him is that I can't follow his train of thought easily.
Rels is scaring me. I don't understand this overexplanation shit, and I'm starting to fear the push on what I think is a 50/50 case.
And I am agreed with Fidei.....I fucking hate LS's play.
If you sleep on him and if LS is mafia I am going to lose my fucking shit in the postgame.
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I'm a bit overwhelmed, I might be overthinking here but I swear I'm not mafia.
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On December 12 2015 07:57 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2015 07:55 NocturneMage wrote:
I'm going to go ahead and give final reads then if I'm getting lynched.
I am thinking Shining is town.
My gut is saying that DYH is town. I broke the guy's filter sideways. Rels' case against him is 50/50 at best.
disformation is probably playing suboptimal as fuck but my caution on him is that I can't follow his train of thought easily.
Rels is scaring me. I don't understand this overexplanation shit, and I'm starting to fear the push on what I think is a 50/50 case.
And I am agreed with Fidei.....I fucking hate LS's play.
If you sleep on him and if LS is mafia I am going to lose my fucking shit in the postgame.
This is a weird post for someone with no votes
You all are getting ready to shennanie? what do you expect me to do?
at the least I'm giving you shit to work with.
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On December 12 2015 07:57 Fidei86 wrote:
LS I get to kick you in the nuts if it's NM I swear to horse
it's not me
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It's fine. I gave my last reads.
It's Rels.
Just fucking take out Rels.
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just fuck me. omfg.
ggs rels and massive apologies. ugh.
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bh fair enough, I swear upon my life my thing said 2259 when I hit post. damn.
will be more careful.
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I need a timeout to clear my head, and then I will return.
I am just really utterly confused.
DYH just seemed really organic to me, I don't even. And when I queried him....
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at work until 0200 my time. quick summation of this nightkill -
James, what the fuck were you smoking? do I even want to know the answer to that question?
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also my mind is starting to wander.
does anyone else find it weird that everyone has townread Shining and he's still alive day 5?
really?
someone pass the tinfoil? or am I just being utterly insane? I'm at work so I am sober.
##vote The Shining
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I'm going to filter dive the shit out of everyone and everything, and that vote as usual, is subject to change.
I'm just getting a really bad feeling about this.
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On December 13 2015 08:09 LightningStrike wrote:
You prob just insane. IDK I surprised you were even alive NM...........
LOL? I almost got shenannied last cycle?
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admittedly no, but why the hell is he still alive? has he been scumread at all at any point in the game?
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I'll try and crack on this more when I get off work or tomorrow morning.
For sure though if one thing can be confirmed, it's that James is an idiot vig. Who does dick all with their gun the entire game??
unless he stacked kp or something with mafia? that's the only thing I can think of?
apparently he's a lawyer, he can't be that stupid.
back to work.
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seriously the only thing I can think of why Shining is alive
(1) he's wrong on everyone
(2) he's mafia
like nothing looked off but....
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I'm here. More night shifts.
Catching up, and more specifically, reading disformation/LS's filters.
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This is a shit way to figure things out but thinking along the lines of how Trfel did for me, there was a reason no one wanted to lynch me and it might be the same way for LS. Reading the latter half of his filter now.
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##unvote
Completely correct, my vote on Shining was pure paranoia. WIFOM, yes, but fair enough, if whoever gets lynched is green and we get to Shining in lylo, then I will have to revisit again.
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It happened once in newbie 14, and I stopped a player (though not the other) that would have otherwise endgamed. Admittedly through a copcheck though, and not because I could actually push that player's lynch.
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Reading LS's filter....
sigh, I'm just going to trust what Trfel has said on him, that latter game, his game will start to improve. From page 12 onwards, I can see more provocative, or game-solving (maybe not earth shattering mind you) questions between 12-13.
Him sheeping Shining, probably strong townread this late in the game. If disformation flips green, it does make him look terrible. It's unlikely he'd try and do this as the final scummer I would think.
LS looks into me, my only thing with LS is that he suggests I come up with the bus plan because of my relationship with HTS, and not necessarily something where the scum QT is shared. between any two players (translation: he's taking something non-alignment indicative and making it so). The towncred argument is a credible one, but that prior argument if I understand it correctly is not particularly valid.
moving to the votes...
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On December 14 2015 10:57 disformation wrote:Slightly confused here. What exactly did Trfel do to you? Do you need a puppet to show us where he touched you? And what happened int newbie 14?
I'm referring to how Trfel wanted to push my lynch for fuck knows how long and then came to the realisation there was a reason that no one wanted to lynch me. and for whatever reason he wasn't sure himself of actually lynching me, and that there was some external factor (in this case FF wanting to have me lynched) that made him realise I was town.
um weren't you in newbie 14?
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my mistake, that was 13.
in newbie 14, I replaced in day 1. I took on the cop slot my predecessor left in a very scummy state. I started making honest reads, but I scumread a player that was being near universally townread particularly by the town leaders and that her play was in parallel with how she played voice mafia. But she was doing dick all for the game and my scum reading her got me scumread by the town leaders, one of them not trusting me because I was a replacement.
night 3 I copchecked her. she returned mafia. we lynched her day 4 and she flipped roleblocker. I tried pushing her as scum for at least 1-2 cycles but no one listened, it was only after I screamed redcheck that people listened.
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reading Shining's final argument against disformation. I can't argue that in any sense. I don't understand the setup talk scumslip but the rest of the argument makes complete sense regarding motivations and interactions from his target's side of the house. as well as the lack of scepticism.
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On December 09 2015 08:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Final vote count Fecalfeast (3): Trfel, The Shining, disformation Trfel (3): NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, Rels LightningStrike (1): Fidei86 Fidei86 (1): LightningStrike Disinformation (1): DoYouHas Fecalfeast is set to be lynched.
disformation being gone/out on a Friday is not alignment indicative regarding the day 4 votes.
From a scum standpoint on day 3, it's suboptimal for mafia to vote off wagon as it was, and the motive for disformation hammering another vanilla scum stands. The same point argues for Lightning Strike.
For the day 2 lynch on Dani, there were several other players that held doubt (cough, LS, cough) on HTS being scum (Trfel as well until he read the filter, and now we know that was town).
But the day 3 votes against motives I think is more indicative.
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On December 14 2015 11:23 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2015 11:01 NocturneMage wrote:
Reading LS's filter....
sigh, I'm just going to trust what Trfel has said on him, that latter game, his game will start to improve. From page 12 onwards, I can see more provocative, or game-solving (maybe not earth shattering mind you) questions between 12-13.
Him sheeping Shining, probably strong townread this late in the game. If disformation flips green, it does make him look terrible. It's unlikely he'd try and do this as the final scummer I would think.
LS looks into me, my only thing with LS is that he suggests I come up with the bus plan because of my relationship with HTS, and not necessarily something where the scum QT is shared. between any two players (translation: he's taking something non-alignment indicative and making it so). The towncred argument is a credible one, but that prior argument if I understand it correctly is not particularly valid.
moving to the votes... I was referring to the fact that once you got the role pm and saw you replaced into scum slot and saw her in your team you would come up with that Anyways since you are here can you answer DYH's question to you?
I am doing just that - deciding between disformation and you - in my series of posts.
I just prefer fleshing things out this way.
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I think what is sealing the deal here is the hesitancy with DYH (who again is at best a 50/50 case and my gut is saying he's town) and me. This I don't care for, from disformation.
But as shit I am with voting analysis, I think the day 3 motives are what indicate him to be the most likely scum.
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I've voted disformation. If we go to lylo though....well I'm going to pray this won't be the case.
It is well past 2am. I'm off to bed.
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I mean if we get to mylo with LS/Shining/DYH....deary me. I think it's gg because then I wouldn't be able to figure it out.
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disformation if you are town, you better come up with some solid reasoning (filters/voting/motives/etc) as to who you think is scum and why. Because if post 2498 holds true, town are in serious trouble.
good night.
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On December 14 2015 10:46 disformation wrote:
Oh Hai NM.
In case ppl are wondering: I will probably maybe try to post some useful stuff tomorrow afternoon.
It's 1400 or so where you are......we are still waiting.
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On December 14 2015 23:49 disformation wrote:phone post: ah yes said afternoon yesterday but i was only able to get out of bed at 1300 and have a few rl things to take vare of  B4 mafia
sleeping in until 1300? I work nights sometimes but even I think that's insane, assuming you aren't sick.
In any case deal with RL so you can return here sooner instead of dithering around, surely you realise you are wearing a noose atm
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that bbcode was weird not sure what happened there.
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1930.
I clamour with anticipation.
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like you are just summarising.
What about that segment makes DYH scummy.
And the day 3 votes. What is DYH's motive to vote off the main wagons and why does it make him more scummy than you who needed the cred?
was there a disconnect with his reads? Like you really are not explaining well.
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Rels case for the 1000th time was 50/50 case at best. I had been telling Rels that all game.
It wasn't a scummy case (now we know obviously) but I isolated independent reasoning for his case on Dani and you cannot positively exclude the possibility that he could have come up with the case on HTS from town. You also cannot say its probable for him to bus the roleblocker over what you did (vanilla for equiv) and lining that up with the stances you took on Dani that's where the problem comes in.
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I don't like the WIFOM from him which was something I noted off his scum games but in his scum games I believe he was WIFOMing all game at least the read on Dani wasn't WIFOM he had legit ways to go. He did the WIFOM here in conjunction with other criteria.
FF a lot of people could have gone either way.
Also criticism of your cases isn't scummy. His arguments have not been well put as Shining's (assuming both are town). He's always been cautious of me possibly bussing but he's had to re-read my filter. There's nothing scum like coming from him other than low activity and in of itself is not alignment indicative.
I can't see 2428/2443/2444 and 2456 shows he's taking previous criteria and re-evaluating.
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On December 15 2015 04:22 The Shining wrote:
Also, the same logic for why LS can't be scum applies to DYH, vote logic-wise. Both were outlier voters. DYH made his vote on Disfo a couple of minutes before EoD, iirc. If either one is scum, they either hammer FF for town cred or vote to save him. Staying off those wagons is pretty town indicative, imo.
That's what I tried to explain two pages or whatever ago. That it's possible as scum but motives don't align.
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I think my vote is in a good place based on the most likely motives and evidence at hand.
If for some reason disformation flips green then I'm probably making between Shining and DYH in mylo assuming we are all alive, and probably looking at their relative pushes on a town disformation because scum clearly needed what will have been a mislynch and it has appeared quite easiest to get it.
But disformation will need to flip before we go this direction.
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From the games I've observed, scum seem to want to no-shoot to avoid giving information via NK. I was inferring the final scum holding their shot.
I don't know if that's optimal or not in general but it seems to have been done a bit lately? I've never been in mylo/lylo on TL as either alignment so...
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Anyhow, making dinner with my special someone.
I'll return in time for end of cycle.
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On December 15 2015 04:54 The Shining wrote:
Mafia Win Condition: The mafia wins when they outnumber or equal the remaining townies or nothing can prevent that from happening. Each night, mafia must use 1 kp. KP is factional.
I don't think they have a choice.
I see, so I stand corrected.
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Honestly I have nothing terribly useful to say atm. I already lent my thoughts as to what I would do or where I'd go if disformation were actually to flip green.
I know in the newbies I'd done, the scum do concede but wondering why someone hasn't already conceded I have been told in the past is generally WIFOM, so....at this point, I'll just wait until 2300 and then if he does flip green, try and get down what I can.
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I mean if disformation wants to do what Dani did and post wine/spirits/baby seals/whatever the fuck people do if he is the final mafia, that's fine too, but welp until then...
....then again Dani posted her scumclaim at (lol) 2259, meh he probably wouldn't.
....don't think can squeeze in a round of League so we wait...
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On December 15 2015 07:32 disformation wrote:
Nah. I'll flip green.
Are you pulling a Fecalfeast?
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Are you mafia claiming town?
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What the hell is a planar dragon?
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2259. Crossing my fingers.
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Thank goodness. Mylo was looking scary as fuck.
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If nothing else, it was so relishing to lynch Dani. I love lynching Dani.
Of course, the flip side of that was having to navigate the rest of the game without her.
Sorry Rels :/
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Agreed, Shining clear MVP.
If he was mafia, it would have been gg.
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I am reading the mafia QT.
Holy shit, I knew it. Dani corrupting disformation to drink with every mislynch.
Hosts, can we seriously stop sending HTS mafia role PMs? I swear she's going to get this entire community drunk.
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On December 15 2015 08:06 Rels wrote:
I deserved my lynch, I played super badly. Sry DYH for the game-long tunnel (=
I tunneled Trfel for 3 cycles, so I'm not much better off here than you.
From a town perspective, I was really frustrated with shennanies and just having to make these decisions in like minutes. I'm glad I wasn't here for day 1 because that day 1 end of cycle looked like, to quote MoosyDoosy, a Level 5 hurricane disaster.
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On December 15 2015 08:08 disformation wrote:Eh yeah sry guys. Like on one hand I know this was my first scum game ever. + I had no coach. Onegu got sick. HtS got sick and her husband got replaced into the game. So I know this wasn't the ideal situation and a hard game to roll first time scum. But on the other hand I feel like most of town did so many mistakes I could have had this, if I didn't screw up even harder. And I feel like I made billions of mistakes, so I am a bit frustrated. The Shining was ultra super fucking on blast though. No clue how to handle a case on me when it is like 90-100% accurate. Also not gonna alt+f4 and unistall. Imma take a break and cohost the next nsm. Which just opened. So if you want to play in that, feel free to sign up.
LOL? Dani coached you a shittonne from what I'm reading. Even phoneposting from her bed. Clearly she wanted you in the game even as she was unable to continue herself.
Evil, evil HTS....but I also know she really values team play so obviously she's going to do something like that for you...
Honestly you did better than I did my first scum game. Don't sweat it. I'm told it takes several games to master the scum game. Just look at what went right and what went wrong. You are also up against people with 4-5x the experience you have.
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On December 15 2015 08:10 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 08:03 NocturneMage wrote:
Agreed, Shining clear MVP.
If he was mafia, it would have been gg. No it wouldn't have, just take a really careful look at him in LYLO Having three lynches like that is so huge, it's almost impossible for the mafia to win, regardless of who the mafia is.
I tinfoiled him. He probably would have NKed me.
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Yeah on the topic of postcount, there's no way I should ever have a 20 page filter especially replacing in. I definitely need to cut back on posting. Damn.
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Well if anyone has any feedback for me let me know. I mean I know my tone and attitude threw some people off that knew me and I see that the obs qt it was mentioned I was playing a bit emotionally. That part is accurate, partially for in-game and out-of-game reasons. But that aside, any other comments, let me know.
I think voting analysis is something I always have trouble deciding what is more likely and I've been told that a really good scum player can "look town" even through votes, but it's hard to weight that versus screwing up without weighing other forms of scumhunting like filters, and whatever.
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On December 15 2015 08:15 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 08:13 NocturneMage wrote:On December 15 2015 08:08 disformation wrote:Eh yeah sry guys. Like on one hand I know this was my first scum game ever. + I had no coach. Onegu got sick. HtS got sick and her husband got replaced into the game. So I know this wasn't the ideal situation and a hard game to roll first time scum. But on the other hand I feel like most of town did so many mistakes I could have had this, if I didn't screw up even harder. And I feel like I made billions of mistakes, so I am a bit frustrated. The Shining was ultra super fucking on blast though. No clue how to handle a case on me when it is like 90-100% accurate. Also not gonna alt+f4 and unistall. Imma take a break and cohost the next nsm. Which just opened. So if you want to play in that, feel free to sign up. LOL? Dani coached you a shittonne from what I'm reading. Even phoneposting from her bed. Clearly she wanted you in the game even as she was unable to continue herself. Evil, evil HTS....but I also know she really values team play so obviously she's going to do something like that for you... Honestly you did better than I did my first scum game. Don't sweat it. I'm told it takes several games to master the scum game. Just look at what went right and what went wrong. You are also up against people with 4-5x the experience you have. Yeah, HtS tried to do as much as she could. But I would have loved to have someone giving me hints on how to deal with TS later on, or how to proceed the last like two cycles, because I was getting lost in filters and started to fall off and stuff.
I think she spent at least 75% of the day between last Tuesday-Friday in bed. Like I told Fidei, I am pretty shocked she didn't replace out.
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Yeah if Fidei claimed vigilante in mylo I would have 1000% lynched him because I'd have thought he was lying.
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On December 15 2015 08:27 disformation wrote:
Also later on had trouble deciding whether I want to stay on DYH, cause I couldnt find more to scum read him, or just keep tunneling, which is super unusual for town!disformation.
but I couldnt get a reasonable scum read on NM.
maybe should have tried LS.
There was a fair shot I could have gotten mislynched. I honestly thought day 4 I was getting lynched over Rels and people didn't understand my change in tone. Others thought I was bussing HTS because of out of game issues, but the sheer reality is that I know how to read her extremely well, and I've accurately read her when she's had far better games than this as scum.
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On December 15 2015 08:25 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 08:22 NocturneMage wrote:
Well if anyone has any feedback for me let me know. I mean I know my tone and attitude threw some people off that knew me and I see that the obs qt it was mentioned I was playing a bit emotionally. That part is accurate, partially for in-game and out-of-game reasons. But that aside, any other comments, let me know.
I think voting analysis is something I always have trouble deciding what is more likely and I've been told that a really good scum player can "look town" even through votes, but it's hard to weight that versus screwing up without weighing other forms of scumhunting like filters, and whatever. It's way easier to talk the talk than walk the walk, but here we go.... Your reasoning to scumread Rels was really bad. IIRC, you were scumreading him because he said something that you disagreed with, but his interpretation was plausible for town to arrive at. Townies will always disagree about stuff, and so that ends up not being a very good reason. Basically, just be really careful when you're focusing on who's right and who's wrong, and specific reasons for stuff that come down to wording, etc. Of course, doing this would have let me avoid scumreading you and Damdred, so... bleh.
uggghhhhhhhhh fuck.
cheers on the advice Trfel.
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Don't think I would have ever lynched DYH until lylo and just off his stance re: disformation and the why are you alive question I might have gone with Shining over him. Who knows lol.
LS are you streaming on twitch or is it a discussion on TS? Might be late for me, what time?
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I think you were reluctant to lynch HTS because (1) she was mentoring you in the mafia QT despite her screaming for her own disposal and (2) you tried too hard to "look" like your town meta, but even from the last newbie, several people were scumreading you as town because you always played the middle ground. I would honestly make the same argument that you'd have been the lynch if you were town, which is why I very much considered the possibly of screwing the last lynch up into lylo. The tinfoil late game was real.
DYH was arguably the most readable at the point he cased Dani. AFKing for real life is generally not alignment indicative to me.
The only problem with me was that my approach to Dani involved a shittonne of meta so I can understand if people don't trust it, the onus was on me to try and spell it in a way that didn't involve meta, and then using the meta to disprove some of the bad reasons people were townreading her.
Also a thanks to the hosting team as well and allowing me to replace in. Again everyone else, I'm sorry if I came off like a dick to anyone this game (ugh, Trfel) admittedly the mere presence of HTS in the game just had me playing on full tilt (<3) which appeared a bit unusual to some people.
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again disformation I think you did really well especially this being your first scumgame, no coaches (despite teammate mentoring, but they have to play their own game too), I really don't think you should be ashamed of anything.
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On December 15 2015 23:21 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 23:18 NocturneMage wrote:
The only problem with me was that my approach to Dani involved a shittonne of meta so I can understand if people don't trust it, the onus was on me to try and spell it in a way that didn't involve meta, and then using the meta to disprove some of the bad reasons people were townreading her.
The thing is you will never do that in case you are both town or both mafia though... Because if you are both town -- you don't do it in the first place If you are both mafia -- you don't have to do it
I had that in the back of my mind, which is why I tried to put out the non-meta arguments first (namely her end of cycle behaviour was terrible). In general, I rage about people's use of meta, so I know it's pretty hypocritical of me to do the same
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EPT
