EPT#suboptimalplays
Haunted Mansion Mini Mafia - Page 8
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
#suboptimalplays | ||
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Chromatically
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should have thought of it earlier though | ||
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On December 06 2015 06:59 sicklucker wrote: so who do you think mafia going to attempt to kill and get stooped tonight? LOL we'll find out won't we | ||
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Really? | ||
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People were talking about the shenanigans at the end of the last day, which I thought I pretty clearly explained. With shenannies onto OO, we get to lynch scott+OO+2 other people. Without shenannies, we only can lynch scott+2 others. Doing shenannies gives us an extra mislynch to work with. It is a 100% pro-town move. You can argue that I would do it as mafia, but it was a completely pro-town move from any perspective. No argument. It does nothing other than give town an extra lynch to work with. (I would say that as mafia, trying to push the shenannies like I was doing would be absolutely stupid because if ANYONE else happened to show up and follow through with the shenannies, I've forced myself to push THREE mislynches instead of TWO, when I could have just kept my mouth shut and done nothing. And mafia don't actually try to give town an extra lynch for "town cred" that doesn't actually exist. But anyway.) On December 06 2015 11:41 Koshi wrote: It's fucking Chrom. OMG. I reread his filter and everything he said about fefe.... It just clicks together. Fucking piece of shit Onegu not playing pisses me off so much. Still want to lynch him just because I don't want to lose vs Onegu at all. And he already pulled the solo mafia victory once. So I am ok with lynching chrom and Onegu. DON'T BE FUCKING TARDS AND LYNCH OO, GB unless you got some insane good reasons. Look at the filters. Look at the fucking filters. What would you like me to explain about what I said about FF? I thought he was town early in the game, but other people were way townier than him and he stopped playing the game which was super inconsistent with his projected attitude. This was one of the things we agreed on earlier? What about OO and FF's interactions do you not think could be mafia-mafia? I haven't looked at it yet but I'll make sure to check that and GB. On December 06 2015 22:23 Koshi wrote: And he can actually remember his scumreads, and asks others on how to proceed and try to lynch mafia, not like here in which he forgets his scumreads, and then votes with his scumreads on a person he never thought was scummy. I really don't know what this is talking about. What do you mean? I really do think that if you look at my overall play this game, I've been very town (which people were agreeing on until somehow everyone simultaneously went crazy). I've been putting my thoughts out there, I've been discussing ideas with people while everyone has just afk'd, I've been clearly trying to figure out this game. I really don't know what pushed people to randomly flip on me, but I think people need to take a step back and look at my overall play this game. | ||
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Chromatically
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I've talked about OO quite a lot this game so you can find a lot of reasons for this in my filter. I think the point I made last night about how his attitude is inconsistent with his actions is pretty strong (he posts occasional things that make it look like he's thinking about the game, but then he afk votes his top townread chrom all day?). Add to that that he has a still unexplained read flip on me from mafia to top town for absolutely no reason, and now back to mafia. Here's his progression on me from top town to "can we please lynch chrom and end the game?" On December 06 2015 07:33 ObviousOne wrote: i'm sorry that you're going to have to wait 72 hours to be disappointed by my lynch let's pretend i'm dead and talk about who's going to die when i flip town i still feel like chrom tunneled me like a dog with a bone for something pretty silly to start with. i haven't even bothered to defend what i wrote because it felt right in the moment trying to figure out wtf you were doing at the start of the game. that silly action on my part resulted in a longer and longer tunnel on me where he was just looking for things that would make me mafia and not reflect any potential town way of thinking. tt on the other hand has waffled so many times regarding whether or not he wanted to lynch me and his silly action at the start of the game led to tunnels on him that he dispelled somewhat gb i have the least to say about because nothing that i can recall off the top of my head gives me anything to doubt he's town. i could look at votes if i get the motivation and do another once-over of the filter. somewhere within the game i'm sure there's been someone advocating more for lynching onegu than for scott, if someone remembers or finds that post it might be a good nugget. This is something that happened on day 1. How can he flip his read on me for that when he already said that I'm almost top town after that already happened? I think this makes a lot of sense from mafia who realize that I'm suddenly a possible mislynch and try to hop on for a bad reason. Plus, two flipped mafia voted on Sno over OO, I've talked about how that is a point against him already. Onegu could completely be mafia at this point, he hasn't done anything other than say that I'm mafia for giving him the "heebie jeebies". He's wasted his vote every day, which would make sense in a world where every set of competing wagons was town-town. The theory that FF gave up because he was frustrated with Onegu and scott not playing is pretty plausible too. You can call it policy if you want but I sincerely don't think there's any way to reasonably conclude that Onegu is town and I'm not willing to gamble the game on it. | ||
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If anyone has questions for me, please leave them and I'll answer them. We have a really good shot at winning the game here, please please don't throw it away on some tinfoil paranoia. | ||
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On December 07 2015 15:12 Koshi wrote: I honestly don't see who would shoot TT except OO/GB. Chrom/Onegu: Could you tell me how you perceived TT this game? If you read his posts, what did you think? In general. I liked the stuff that he posted after he was called out D1, and he basically kept up a steady stream of good posts throughout the game so I didn't really have a reason to think he was mafia. Pretty clearly trying to figure out the game for multiple days in a row, and then the D1 vote analysis that both mafia voted off-wagon pretty much sealed the deal. On December 07 2015 14:57 Koshi wrote: Chromatically Can you read fefe his filter and tell me why OO is mafia? GB, and OO look pretty good from that. Yeah so I went through the filter, here's what FF did with each of them (or what I think the significant parts are): On OO: - Says he prefers OO to TT early D1. - Calls out OO's long list post from D1 in #483, but then backs off right after OO's response for no real reason in #497. I was the only one on OO at that time and TT already had 4 votes, so I think it would be a pretty safe thing to do as mafia. On November 26 2015 20:13 ANickelDrink wrote: Not that you brought up any new points but that felt like a genuine "fuck off man I'm going to bed" without getting overly defensive. ##unvote - Does some more light suspicion in #1015, saying that the same list post is "not really boss material". - Tells him to "flesh out that chrome read" (??? while supposedly thinking he's mafia? awkward interaction overall). - I actually think this is huge, and I can't believe I never saw it before. When I go after OO for his post about me, here's what he says: On November 29 2015 12:34 ANickelDrink wrote: Chrome just kinda blew OO's post out of the water. Am I wrong? When he comes back closer to lynchtime, the votes are 4-4 between OO and Sno: On November 30 2015 05:59 ANickelDrink wrote: not much reading to do ##vote sn0_man good call especially since the spirit seems to agree To give some extra context, this is pretty soon after he brought up the list post again. In comparison, basically the only read he gave on Sno all game is "After catching up I noticed he made posts but didn't seem to care at all who was getting lynched" and a post that gave him bad feelings on D1 (which was basically the same point). I think it is extremely, extremely weird that, after supposedly having multiple points against OO and very little against Sno, he pops in to hammer OO without even mentioning OO in the post at all??? Like if OO is town, I think it's more in line with FF's posts up to that point and supposed reads to hop on the OO wagon instead, because that's what he's been bringing up. scott was on the Sno wagon too. How likely is it really that that all just happens to be a coincidence? Overall, I think this actually makes OO more likely to be mafia with FF. The stuff that FF says about OO, how he makes sure to call him out occasionally without actually doing anything about it, is exactly the sort of read that mafia give on their partners. They know that they're suspicious so they call them out, but don't want to actually push it. It's possible that I'm reading too much into it and it makes sense for FF to vote Sno, but I think that it's way too much of a coincidence for FF to talk about why OO is scummy and then hammer Sno over him without even mentioning OO (especially since scott was on Sno too!). On GB: - Talks about wanting to give a strong TR to GB around #1001, but doesn't. - Says that he'll check GB out more and that he "has a couple suspicions" in #1008, but never delivers on the read. - Agrees with TT that GB "gives him a bad feeling" #1114, but doesn't push it. On November 29 2015 12:26 ANickelDrink wrote: For one, I'm getting a good townvibe off tictock now. He was most of your D1. I know, people are wrong especially you but that's one point. Your reasoning behind voting tictock over vivax were shaky, saying you wanted to see if you were right and such. Tictock points this out. You telling people to vote tictock so they can use him for associative reads sounds scummy to me as well. You literally say to koshi (copy/pasting rather than digging through the tictock post) Maybe I read this wrong? How does koshi being sure that chrome is mafia at this point an indication that he should vote tictock instead? I honestly don't want to re-hash tictock's whole post GB. I'm not saying you're my top scumread over sn0 or a lurker but the things tictock brings up have merit. - Tries to push GB for not shenannying onto scott. I agree that this would be pretty weird if they were mafia (not impossible, but still really weird). Overall, I think this looks better for GB than OO. When I list it out like this, it could sound pretty bad because there's a bit of noncommittal reads on GB there, but I think if you look at the specific interactions then it looks very different than FF and OO's. I think the post I quoted here is a good example of that. Compare that read on GB to his read on OO. In that read on GB, I think it sounds more like he's trying to justify his read and keep GB off of him ("I'm not saying you're my top scumread"), and there's some interaction there. With OO, it's a super awkward "oh I'll back off of you I guess". The townread stuff too (GB has an allcaps post where he says something like "PLEASE PLEASE WEAR THE BEAR MASK" or something). It's not conclusive because the substance isn't there and FF doesn't ever push GB, but I feel like these posts are not mafia-mafia posts. There's an okay amount of interaction there especially compared to OO's, and it doesn't "click" as well as OO and FF. Don't think FF ever mentions Onegu. Could be that FF gave up because he was sick of Onegu and scott like I said. I don't think that there would be much weird about Onegu shooting TT, it's not like it took a lot of effort to see that he wasn't getting lynched and medic dodge. Based on just interactions, I think it's OO > Onegu > GB in terms of more mafia. | ||
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Chromatically
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Could be mafia because: - Hasn't done anything the last few days (neither have the other two really though). - SL and TT both shot after talking about him, possible WIFOM though. - Really bad argument that the TT kill makes him town when it's literally the most beneficial shot for him (Koshi explained well)? Could just be dumb but it really doesn't make any sense. This could be a contradiction too (believing that it the shot was to frame him i.e. it makes him look worse but also saying it makes him look better): On December 07 2015 07:23 GlowingBear wrote: Yeah, looks like it was to frame me. I'm saging yhst it is weird that we have two shots. Maybe it wasn't a save, but just a statement that you were protected On December 08 2015 00:46 GlowingBear wrote: It's much, much easier for me to keep Tictock alive and use his tunnel against me, and kill a confirmed townie, than killing fucking TT. - Does a really weird thing with scott, where he calls scott town for coming in and making an excuse for activity, but flips on it to scott is mafia after being called out because scott "didn't post in the replacement thread". Could be mafia trying to backtrack after calling scott town. #1075 check it out - Not much "real" interaction with FF, as in no pushes on each other (pushed scott on the FF day but I don't feel like that means much since scott was going down). Could be town because: - Really cared about the D1 lynch, which we know now was 2 town. Going back and rereading his D1 filter reminded me of this. It's not impossible that he's mafia and just faked it really well, but the fact that he clearly had an opinion that he was pushing a lot (like really trying to get people to vote TT) when he had no reason to as mafia is a pretty big point in his favor. - Just generally seems to be thinking about the game and trying to solve it (true that this has died off a lot recently, but there still was a lot D1/N1/D2). - Some "soft" interactions with FF that don't feel particularly mafia-mafia to me. It looks like there's not a lot of reasons for being town, but I think several of the scum reasons I have here are these specific points whereas the town reasons are general statements about his play early on this game. Just because his play has fallen off doesn't mean that the earlier stuff he posted doesn't exist and I tend to find after games that my D1 reads on people end up being more accurate. Nothing here makes it impossible that he's mafia (went after TT most of the time he was active, could have faked that tunnel), but it's much less concrete than the others I think. The scott thing is probably the weirdest thing in his filter, alongside falling off in contribution recently (but OO and Onegu never started anywhere near the level of contribution). His D1 effort and care about the lynch feel town to me, and I could just be making a misjudgement like last game but I hope that I'm not. Ideally, we get another save so that it can be a sure thing, but I don't think that GB should be a lynch over OO and Onegu this game unless something changes or someone brings something I overlooked here. | ||
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I would lynch OO today. I think his interactions with FF are not good, FF hammered Sno over him when I don't think it was justified, OO pushed Onegu a lot but didn't push scott. Other stuff I've said earlier as well. Onegu next, and then GB last if we get the chance. GB, to address what you said about me in that latest post: You say that the points I bring are "very good", but then that they could come with perfect information. Most of the stuff I've said this game has been on OO, so wouldn't I know that my points are really bad then with perfect information where OO is town? I don't know how you get from his play is so good to he's probably mafia for it. For my read on OO, I pushed it quite a bit earlier in the game, and people didn't find the points I made as convincing as I did. When it was D3 and all of the probably town + marv were piled on FF instead of OO, I DID reconsider and said that I might just be wrong if no one else gets the same thing I'm saying about OO (I said as much, that I would leave OO for last if no one agress). Add to that that FF had "played" a terrible day that day I was completely on board with that lynch, and scott after was good too because he was a complete enigma with the added bonus of being on most mafia teams (unlike Onegu who was unlikely with OO). I said the whole time that OO or Onegu on a team with them makes sense, and that's where I'm still at now. If you're town like I'm believing, I need you with me on OO. ##Vote: ObviousOne | ||
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On December 08 2015 17:18 Koshi wrote: I agree with you Chrom. Already read GB response before going to work. ##unvote ##vote: Onegu Yeah, this is fine too if people would prefer it. I don't think the order matters too much now | ||
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On December 08 2015 19:41 Koshi wrote: btw chrom. don't you think you would have been shot instead of sicklucker if OO is mafia? bit wifomy but worth thinking about. I don't really remember the situation, but I think that shooting me after I was almost only pushing him would be too incriminating. Or at least enough to make someone else a better shot that night | ||
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On December 08 2015 20:34 sicklucker wrote: ff and scott voted together to push mafia agenda. and onegu kinda didnt even pay attention. he would have at least read qt and joined them mafia agenda where? on sno? if Onegu is mafia there's no mafia agenda there because it's 2 town and three mafia wouldn't want to vote together there | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote: Onegu IF Onegu doesn't vote though then shenannies DO gain us a lynch, so we should definitely get ready to do that | ||
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idk I'll be back before lynch to figure things out more OO has been doing a whole lot of read flipping | ||
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Looking like we'll get to lynch both OO and Onegu though which is sweet, probably can just wrap this up right here. | ||
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eh whatever, doesn't matter | ||
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