[T][M] Resistance V - Section 31
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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Penultimate leader checking in. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 02 2015 09:06 Xatalos wrote: kita, did you get anything out of our furious exchange just now? I'd say people stating that they are happy that they didn't roll mafia typically increases their chances of being mafia, though I don't know if that actually holds true. Super stating that his read will be based on how you interact with others and you proceeding to go out of your way to interact with me could be interpreted as you trying to influence his views. Neither of these points lead to more than a "meh" Does anyone know if one faction typically wins more often than the other in a standard resistance setup or is it pretty close to 50/50? I'm not all that familiar with how the games usually play out myself. Right now I'm toying with a rng scenarios to see how they play out. | ||
kitaman27
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The reason I ran through these numbers was to decide whether or not we should enforce a policy that the leader cannot nominate themselves. Allowing the spy to nominate themselves gives them a free pass for a tainted group, while not allowing a self-nomination forces them to select a teammate. I don't think the advantage of removing spy self-nominations would be worth the trade off of dropping the resistance leader success rate in half so I would encourage resistance leaders to not try anything fancy and exclude themselves. Do others agree? | ||
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On November 02 2015 15:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: kitaman: Do you argee or disgree with the statement that if i am town the best play would be to reject the first three teams regardless of the first three player's alignments? If everyone did that, then we would never be able to pass a mission so you can't publicly push that policy. Privately, I'd probably consider it in your position if there were legitimate reasons to distrust the first three, though not regardless of their alignments. | ||
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On November 02 2015 17:29 Rels wrote: Weird that it took kita 1 hour to answer this question, which was asked to him only a few minutes after his opening post. Weird that you imply I was carefully crafting a response for 1 hour, rather than simply responding once I returned to read the thread. Though I do wonder to myself why a spy Rels would attack me for such a ticky tack point. I'd expect a spy to push something along the lines of "kita isn't contributing what I would expect from his town play", rather than trying to paint me in a bad light from the start. On November 02 2015 18:21 raynpelikoneet wrote: kitaman because he is talking about setup which is a big no-no in this game unless you are scum and want to give advice to your teammates, like "this is something i would not recommend to do". Well the goal was indeed to give advice for my teammates. You don't need to automatically conclude that the advice was spy motivated. 36% success to 18% success is a significant drop off. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 02 2015 23:44 Half the Sky wrote: I know you don't/can't play often, but I still have a decent memory of what to expect from a town Kita...and right now I'm not seeing a town Kita. On November 02 2015 23:46 kitaman27 wrote: I'd expect a spy to push something along the lines of "kita isn't contributing what I would expect from his town play", rather than trying to paint me in a bad light from the start. lolol I swear I didn't read your response before posting this. 1 down! :D | ||
kitaman27
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Finish....Finnish...triple no. Noted. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 02 2015 23:52 raynpelikoneet wrote: The problem is that is actually bad advice. rayn trying to trap me into talking about setup more. NOT FALLING FOR IT! | ||
kitaman27
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On November 02 2015 20:41 Superbia wrote: 2. It downplays scum. 2 is super weird from a town perspective, and leans me more towards mafia. Regardless I feel like commenting on how "weak" mafia is is mafia indicative as it sets up for a lax game. This seems like quite the over analysis for an intro one-liner. There doesn't have to be spy motivation in every post. Why conclude that he is somehow pushing an agenda where it benefits him to trick town into thinking the spies will get steam rolled. On November 02 2015 20:41 Superbia wrote: I feel like if you were town and believed this you would've focused on the strength of town, rather than the weakness of mafia, and as a result, would've said something along the lines of "mafia gonna get #rekt #noqt" (or something less trolly) Really a stretch here. More speculation without basis than anything. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 00:13 raynpelikoneet wrote: Probably not. I don't actually fake emotion as mafia. Do you find Rels would be so antagonistic against you, the person pushing discussion in the thread, on day one as spy? Making firm conclusions like "rayn leaving the thread as soon as he's being pushed is scum indicative. Please don't include him in a team.". | ||
kitaman27
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On November 02 2015 20:41 Superbia wrote: Xat&rest- Xat's initial post set me off. Saying something like "this is a nightmare for scum" has two results (from writer POV): 1. It distances you from "scum". 2. It downplays scum. 1. Is NAI. 2 is super weird from a town perspective, and leans me more towards mafia. I feel like if you were town and believed this you would've focused on the strength of town, rather than the weakness of mafia, and as a result, would've said something along the lines of "mafia gonna get #rekt #noqt" (or something less trolly). Regardless I feel like commenting on how "weak" mafia is is mafia indicative as it sets up for a lax game. Now I already had a very real suspicion that you knew that this set up is not a "nightmare" for scum, as you have played resistance(/avalon) before (noted by you correctly associating my merlin comment with avalon). So that double begs the question why you felt the need to point out that mafia was "weak". I also understand that there is no resolving this situation regardless of your alignment. We can't talk this shit out- since it my suspicion and your possibly-innocent post. I am going, however, going to be suspicious of you. Unfairly? Maybe. But we'll see how your day plays out. So far I don't really like how you've been soft-pushing my push on you. But that may be biased of me. @HTS what is your opinion on this post? What is the purpose of returning to the thread with this over-explanation when he already admitted that the line of questioning was a dead end. @rayn, you felt that his push on xat was town motivated when it occurred initially. I agreed with you at that time since pushing a player to generate discussion is generally town-motivated. However, do you feel this explanation is legit? | ||
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kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 01:01 Xatalos wrote: Yeah, HTS/rayn/Xata could work... HTS has seemed pretty focused on solving the game How do you differentiate HTS solving the game as town from HTS setting herself up as a likely nomination as spy by bringing along active players? Were there certain posts that you can point me to that suggest she is analyzing things from only a town perspective? | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 01:08 kitaman27 wrote: How do you differentiate HTS solving the game as town from HTS setting herself up as a likely nomination as spy by bringing along active players? Were there certain posts that you can point me to that suggest she is analyzing things from only a town perspective? Actually similar question for HTS regarding super. What about his play makes you think that he is town, rather than a mafia player who realizes the benefit of putting a player on the defensive early? Was there something in particular that stood out that was alignment indicative? | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 01:20 JudgeJudy wrote: For the record, I'm in favor of nominating Me, Myself & Irene. Gah, stupid second browser login XD | ||
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On November 03 2015 01:50 Half the Sky wrote: not knowing what teams are going to pass makes this doubly difficult. Whether or not you have thread support for your team to pass isn't all that relevant in my opinion. The margin for error is small enough that sacrificing a top three town read from your group to compromise with popular opinion isn't really a priority, especially with you picking from the first slot. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 01:55 ShoCkeyy wrote: That's fine, I'm not pushing to be on the team, I don't need to. I already know that what ever team I'm on, there is a 33% chance of it succeeding. Why not push to be on a team? 18% chance of succeeding on a team you aren't part of, right? | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 01:52 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I skimmed through the thread. I'll check it out. Which of my posts led you to the conclusion that I'm scummy if you didn't happen to read that one? | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 01:50 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I actually think shockeyy is kinda scummy for trying to nail rels on changing his reads. Town changes their reads a lot more than scum does and is less careful in general. What makes you say shockeyy is trying to nail Rels? There was a clear swap in opinion there without much explanation. I was about to quote similar posts myself since it wasn't clear where the switch up happened. It seems more to me like he is trying to follow Rels thought process, rather than crucifying him for a change in opinion. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 02:18 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Since when do clear swaps in opinion make someone more likely scum than town? I didn't say that, nor do I mind the town read on rayn from Rels. I said that it makes sense to try to understand why someone changes their opinion if it is not clear to follow and then try to determine whether or not the explanation is valid. | ||
kitaman27
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If you're unwilling to include me, I'll see if I can come up with my preferred alternative. I think I'm satisfied with rayn being included. I've been anti-super, but I'll see if I'm being too harsh based on one post. He has been missing for a while though, which is a concern. Looking at his games in the database, he takes a bit longer to get going as mafia it seems. I'm undecided on Xata. I'll come back to him after lunch. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 03:12 Xatalos wrote: Still a pretty... unimpactful? push or whatever it was Well I stated my opinion about that post, asked HTS to comment, asked rayn to comment, asked HTS to clarify a second time, and then elaborated on my distrust. You don't find that sufficient? | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 01:52 ShoCkeyy wrote: Not trying to nail anything, I'm just questioning his stance on rayn. If you read the thread you would of seen that Rels was actively going after rayn in the beginning, to be able to do a 180 and call him town in a few hours is quite interesting to me. Are you satisfied with the response Rels gave? The topic got dropped after this post. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 04:10 ShoCkeyy wrote: Not really, but it seems like a lot of people dropped off after this. If I understand correctly, you feel that the rayn vs Rels interaction makes rayn look bad because of how he reacted in past games, but you also feel that Rels looks bad based on his sudden shift in opinion. Are you entertaining a scenario where there was a scum to scum interaction between rayn and Rels earlier on or if not, which behavior seems more town to you? | ||
kitaman27
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Here is his read list from what I gathered. Basically all town and null reads. Xatalos - Obviously town reads himself Half the Sky - Strong town read On November 03 2015 01:13 Xatalos wrote: Well, she's clearly reading the thread and making original findings. Such as the way I inquired Superbia about his townread on me, or how you were making filler posts here and there.... She's also coming to pretty good conclusions from those findings. Hard to ask for more at this point. raynpelikoneet - Strong town read On November 03 2015 01:01 Xatalos wrote: rayn has been very focused on finding townreads, something I think fits better with his town meta and is perhaps more useful in this game than finding a scum. Superbia - Town read, though a tier below the previous ones. Questions the initial push, but seems content with him for the most part. On November 03 2015 00:54 Xatalos wrote: Hm..... I think HtS/rayn/Superbia has a decent chance of being Spy-free. It would be worth considering at least. On November 03 2015 01:31 Xatalos wrote: Well, I don't think Superbia's later posts were bad either. He somewhat decently explained his reason for the initial scumread on me and then townread me for a good reason too Rels - Null, though this sounds more like townie null On November 03 2015 00:05 Xatalos wrote: Hm.. I'd maybe put Rels into the null pile. I think his explanations somewhat made sense, and he's actively doing stuff (even if he can be active as scum, it's still easier to be a little less active than that as scum). Otherwise it seemed generally okay. Artanis[Xp] - Null/No shared opinion? ShoCkeyy - Null/No shared opinion? sicklucker - Null kitaman27 - Scum read for lack of interaction at start of the game. Hasn't elaborated much about me since then. From his position knowing that there are three anti-town players, it seems like he isn't really suspicious of anyone aside from me, especially considering that he has so many posts already. I know that I'm probably biased considering that I'm the only one he seems to think is a spy, but that doesn't seem very satisfactory to me. He seems quite content with the status quo. On November 02 2015 23:52 Xatalos wrote: Well, tbh I might take rayn and Superbia with me as well right now. Not because they're super town, but because there aren't that many good options. I hope that situation fixes itself. I know from my perspective, I wouldn't be so willing to pass along the nominations if I don't have a great idea of where the bad guys might be. Right now it seems more like a process of elimination based on the lack of posts from the null players. Considering we can have several more cycles to get that part sorted out, I'm concerned about his willingness to rush things along so long as he is included in the nomination. I still don't think I've spotted an alternative to super/xat that I'd be satisfied with yet though. It seems that I have the opposite problem than xat. Most people are coming off as untrustworthy/null, rather than the other way around | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 05:31 JudgeJudy wrote: Initially I found this post a bit scummy. You acknowledge Xata's point that rayn can display similar behavior as both mafia and town, yet you still choose to conclude mafia while stating that you haven't played with him as town. If you are making a meta read, yet don't put in effort to understand the town meta, then you're relying on a single data point, rather than a trend. Otherwise, I don't see a ton that stands out one way or the other. I can sympathize with not having a ton of strong town reads and not wanting to come to conclusions about posts that really don't seem to matter, though it's difficult to come to an opinion on you with only two main talking points so far. Rels stuff seems reasonable, but it would be nice to see you jump in on more topics as time goes on. I'd expect to hopefully see a few more confident reads in the next day or two. Eh sorry in advance. For some silly reason I can only log into TL using my smurf account. I can log into LiquidLegends under my normal account, but that doesn't have the filter options, which is why I keep switching between the two. I'll try to do a better job to preview first XD | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 05:15 Xatalos wrote: Well kita, you even quoted the reason for my focus... That finding town in this game might be more useful than finding scum. Of course figuring out the Spies is always useful, but it'll get easier with vote analysis and mission results, whereas here the main goal is to figure out who to send on a mission. At least in IRL Resistance we mostly focused on establishing "clear" or at least semi-clear town. Perhaps, but right now it seems like you are grouping players into "clear" and "null". With most of the null players having very few posts, the main criteria for whether or not a player is "clear" seems to be whether or not they are active. It's a free pass for spies to show up, make a few reasonable posts, and get away with being trusted for a couple hours of posts. I'd rather have more time to sort the players like Artanis, SL, Shockeyy, etc. into "clear"/"spy" buckets before going ahead and relying on mission result analysis when it is so important to get the first one right. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 05:09 ShoCkeyy wrote: Kita what are your thoughts on me so far? Your turn now. What are you thoughts on me so far? | ||
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On November 03 2015 00:46 Half the Sky wrote: I'm feeling better about Xata but not as good as with Super/rayn On November 03 2015 02:43 Half the Sky wrote: Read Xata. Could swap Superbia out for him. I'll sit on this. Current: raynpelikoneet/Superbia/myself 1st alt: Xata/rayn/myself On November 03 2015 03:17 Half the Sky wrote: I'm putting in my alternative. I'll evaluate when I'm sorted at home. ##nominate: Xatalos, raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky What triggered the swap here? | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 06:49 Half the Sky wrote: ##nominate: kitaman27, raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky Still on my way home everyone. So you view yourself, me, rayn, super, and xatalos as trustworthy? Not a lot of wiggle room there with the nulls. Kinda similar to what had me concerned with xata earlier. Or did something that xata or super post move them over to your spy list? I don't mind this nomination as much as the other two....but I'd be much more satisfied with it coming back up for vote later on in the first cycle so I'd have a better grasp on you and rayn. Still not thrilled about accepting a team 24 hours into the game. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 06:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Not really, I'm kinda looking to be engaged in conversation to actually get the ball rolling and get into the game. Well you had a scum read on me when you left the thread, now your return, HTS nominates me, and you don't seem that concerned? | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 07:24 Half the Sky wrote: Fair enough. What?! You can't possible accept his response can you?! + Show Spoiler + He failed to answer in the form of a question | ||
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On November 03 2015 07:55 Xatalos wrote: Besides, some semi-good posts don't really override the way he ignored what was going on and posted random filler throughout the day >.> What are you referring to here? Which topics am I ignoring? Aside from maybe the super/xat stuff from the first hour of the game, which I didn't find all that interesting at the time and later followed up when super posted the second explanation. There was a bit of stuff that went on during the gap where I was asleep and the Europeans were posting, but I think I even touched on most of the relevant stuff there too. Is there something you feel I haven't adequately shared my opinion on? | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 07:55 Xatalos wrote: Besides, some semi-good posts don't really override the way he ignored what was going on and posted random filler throughout the day >.> But oh well... If this is to happen, then so be it. It's not like it's the final team yet. Why does this apply to myself, but not superbia? He essentially has 1 talking point this game, even after the return to the thread where he brings back up the "nightmare for scum" stuff that has already been discussed to death. | ||
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On November 03 2015 08:56 Xatalos wrote: He was also constantly engaged with the thread... Not really sure how it's comparable to you. That's not true though. Look at the time stamps. I have several posts following the events of the thread every hour for the past ten hours. Superbia has his initial exchange with you, a group of posts 12 hours ago, and then a couple posts upon his return. I don't understand why you scum read me by saying that I ignored what was going on most of the day, while town reading superbia because he is engaged with the thread because in reality he wasn't even here all day aside from the 1 hour burst of activity. | ||
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On November 03 2015 15:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: if you are scum On November 03 2015 15:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: So basically, if you are scum here The problem here is that you are making the assumption that I am scum and then using my play to "prove" that assumption. The argument is invalid because you come to your conclusion and then piece together evidence that fits the scenario. Of course I am going to discuss whether or not superbia or Xatalos should be included in the team. Everyone should be discussing them. Discussing SL, Artanis, and Shoccky is more difficult because they have posted less content. I did provide my thoughts on on Shoccky. I still have no idea about SL. Artanis I shared dissatisfaction about his post nomination reaction, but I will need to reread. Convincing HTS that she is a spy as leader doesn't accomplish anything and I felt okay with your inclusion. There are only eight other players in the game. That leaves Rels I guess, which I've been on the fence. I will go into further detail later. On November 03 2015 15:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: Isn't it a bit hypocritical to entertain a scenario where Xatalos is not town - or cast doubt on him - for "not giving reads" when you yourself haven't really given any reads? Perhaps but I feel that I do have reads, though I probably could have expressed them in a single post or something to make it easier to follow. List posts at this point are kinda meh though, but I'll oblige sometime today. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 19:15 raynpelikoneet wrote: Artanis let's do the play of 2015 and win the game by nominating all scum team on mission 1. On November 03 2015 22:03 raynpelikoneet wrote: 1) If there are three scum, and the plan goes through, we autowin the game. 2) That is not going to happen because kitaman will refuse to follow up with that if there is three scum 3) When kitaman refuses to the plan, he actually has to explain why one of Rels/ShoCkeyy is mafia 4) When kitaman says "no" to the plan, i am going to ask Rels about his read on kitaman, and where does he base that on -- in contrary to the read on you (the "Xatalos does not have scumreads" part -- i will explain that further then) 5) And then all of this doesn't matter, except for we get scum talking about each other and not give bullshit reads 6) And the plan will still be town-favored if there is even 2 scum in that group of three (which i am 95% sure of, unless i am playing horribly in this game). lol this plan is absolutely terrible. You do realize how important it is that town succeeds day one, right? Of course you do. Essentially the game is won by the resistance by accomplishing the following goals: 1) Win mission two of the first three missions. (Ideally three if you can generate a clean initial group) 2) Win mission four. The resistance very rarely wins mission five. Identifying 5/6 town is really difficult because you have to include members who participated in an earlier failed mission. It's like 4% success at random. Now for the triple scum day one nomination to work, you need to identify all three scum for it to be worthwhile. There is a 1.1% chance of doing that successfully at random. We're not going by random but the odds of success are so, so bad. Suppose we nominate our three spy suspects and mission one fails. We've wasted our easiest nomination phase in exchange for information. Even if you know the full spy team, you exclude them from the day one nomination and town wins mission 1, 2, and 3 automatically. Frankly rayn, for you to even suggest a plan like this that is so poorly thought out makes me more suspicious of you. As for the specifics on Rels/Shoccky I'll go into the read list next. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 03 2015 23:09 Xatalos wrote: But rayn gave good reasons for proposing the full-scum (2/3 scum) team - lots of pressure on the whole team - and there are additional reasons having to do with miscommunications within the scumteam and such, so it might be better to propose that next. Like seriously...why would you support this idea? "Lets purposely fail the most important mission because maybe it well help us pass missions later" Does nobody else see the problem here? | ||
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On November 04 2015 02:24 Half the Sky wrote: I just know that in RL resistance as a spy I have passed the first mission and then failed later missions - my question to rayn is how is he going to get around this possibility regardless of who/what his reads/team recs are? I read the post where he discusses Kita/Rels/Shockey and I'm not clear on the failsafe there. Am I missing something? Or was it more apparent in another post? It's a catch-22. You can't discuss why the plan doesn't work for town because you'd need to lay out the basic spy strategy for taking advantage of the situation. Yet at the same time, you can't discuss the why the plan could work out because you'd need to lay out what you're hoping to achieve from the spies. Either way, it's still too high risk with a questionable reward. | ||
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On November 03 2015 23:08 ShoCkeyy wrote: Tell me where I directly called you scum.. This is the third time I've asked you to. I'm confused what you are trying to say because I was working under the assumption that rayn was one of your spy suspects. On November 03 2015 03:15 ShoCkeyy wrote: I'm pretty much going to reject the xata/rayn combo wombo. I'd rather see the first team mentioned - hts,super,xata go through. On November 02 2015 23:23 ShoCkeyy wrote: He can get angry as town too, haven't never seen him play as town. I'm just basing it off my previous game with him, which is why I rather not have him on the first mission. On November 03 2015 22:36 ShoCkeyy wrote: rayn the whole game has tried to look like an angry town player, cause he's obviously getting angry at my assumptions, not even real accusations. He can't even find the time to go through my meta and see how I play, yet I went through his. He also can't find the time to really interact with me Are you arguing semantics between whether or not you "directly called him scum" or whether you "inferred he was possibly scum"? Is the difference important? What do you think of people like Artanis, Xat or Super. Even if you aren't completely certain, it would be nice to see a bit more regarding what you are thinking about each of them. | ||
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Half the Sky - Leaning town. At the start of the game, I was concerned with the fact that she essentially posted exactly what I typically hear from scum players 6-12 hours into the game when I rarely choose to participate much. Since then, she has stayed pretty active and shows evidence of reading the thread. At certain points there was a pretty easy opportunity to My biggest concern would be that between her, myself, rayn, xatalos, and superbia was that she really did not seem to explain herself very well why she went from one to the other as nominations changed. At the end of the day, there were little suspicions towards anyone in the group of five, yet its pretty unlikely the entire group is town. raynpelikoneet - Leaning town. I'm willing to give him town points right off the bat for saving us from having to play with VE. In general he seems to be pushing forwards discussion and looking at player-player relationships to try to piece things together. The plan that he put forward with the scum nominations may be really poor, but a couple posts suggest that he actually believes in it. I hate the way he talks in absolutes regarding alignments of players that he certainly can't be so sure of. The conclusions come way too quick. However, I know he tends to do that a lot as town from past experience as well. Xatalos - Leaning mafia On November 03 2015 08:56 Xatalos wrote: He was also constantly engaged with the thread... Not really sure how it's comparable to you. This is a flat out false statement to justify his town read on Superbia. Superbia was NOT constantly engaged with the thread. He was absent aside from the start of the game, a 1 hour period where he made several posts, and a return post where he promised future reads. How can a player be both engaged and disconnected from the game at the same time. I question the validity of the town read because he isn't aware of Superbia's absence when several other players start to question the drop off. Furthermore, he justifies the scum read on me by stating that I am ignoring discussion topics. That makes Xatalos's mindset look even worse when you compare it to his defense of Superbia. Superbia never even comments about the nomination aside from a 1-liner after the fact that he has never elaborated on. I shared my suspicions on both Superbia and Xatalos during the nomination phase and my satisfaction with both HTS and rayn as nominations. It seems like Xatalos generated his reads a few hours into the game and hasn't re-evaluated based on the events of the thread, which I view as a scum trait. Superbia - Weakly leaning town Superbia + Xatalos doesn't stand out as teammates and I think Xat looks worse between the two. That's probably the biggest reason that I have him slightly townier than NULL. If I re-evaluated my read on Xata, I'd probably need to do the same here. On November 02 2015 20:43 Superbia wrote: I usually start off with lots of big town-reads, not sure where the rest of town is this game lol. This post felt genuine. He had no input regarding nominations. I won't necessarily interpret this as spy motivated since he has essentially been absent from the thread, rather than lurking. On November 02 2015 20:41 Superbia wrote: Xat's initial post set me off. Saying something like "this is a nightmare for scum" has two results 1. It distances you from "scum". 2. It downplays scum. 1. Is NAI. 2 is super weird from a town perspective, and leans me more towards mafia. I feel like if you were town and believed this you would've focused on the strength of town, rather than the weakness of mafia, and as a result, would've said something along the lines of "mafia gonna get #rekt #noqt" (or something less trolly). Regardless I feel like commenting on how "weak" mafia is is mafia indicative as it sets up for a lax game. Now I already had a very real suspicion that you knew that this set up is not a "nightmare" for scum, as you have played resistance(/avalon) before (noted by you correctly associating my merlin comment with avalon). So that double begs the question why you felt the need to point out that mafia was "weak". I felt this post was exaggerated. He suggests that Xat is pushing a mafia agenda with the nightmare for scum post in order to catch town off guard. I simply don't think a mafia Xat is looking that far ahead. If anything, I'd say reason 1 makes more sense. Trying to interpret what a town Xat would enter the game as is a complete guessing game so I felt he was really stretching his read here. sicklucker - Null lol there is always at least one of these guys I'm really bad at reading low effort players. Usually it comes down to looking at their past games and seeing if the low effort trend occurs as only a single alignment (I haven't done this yet, but it is on my to-do list). We aren't really in a position to exclude him for the rest of the game so hopefully we get a few more reads. I guess the posts on Xata is a start. Artanis[Xp] - Going to hold off until we see a few more posts from him. I'm not very sure where his head is at. At some point someone mentioned that had a very strong read on him. If you could elaborate, that might be helpful. ShoCkeyy - I'm struggling between low thread presence mafia and "lynch bait" town. He doesn't seem comfortable giving out statements which he isn't confident about. This could either mean that truly isn't sure and wants more time until it is clear or that he doesn't want to make a statement that could backfire later on in the game. I didn't like the meta read he made on rayn by taking only the experience from the game he has played. There were a few other statements that seemed like they came from town. "I will rject this combination" etc. I took a look through some of his past games. There were a few similarities that popped up. On May 19 2015 05:36 ShoCkeyy wrote: I didn't ignore it and I never said GB was mafia directly, nor do I think he's mafia yet after throwing posts at him to see his argument style which I didn't much see in the Palmar posts due to reasons. I do however keep him under my list and already have mentioned my claim. On November 03 2015 23:08 ShoCkeyy wrote: Tell me where I directly called you scum.. This is the third time I've asked you to. On June 19 2015 05:42 ShoCkeyy wrote: GB can you stop completely ignoring my questions and stop ignoring the read I asked to do of me? And don't tell me it's because I have a small filter (wtf kind of logic is that). Tell me why I shouldn't vote for you? On November 03 2015 22:59 ShoCkeyy wrote: He was ignoring me when I was trying to engage with him. Doesn't make him scum, but it makes the scum meter raise. On December 15 2010 05:25 ShoCkeyy wrote: Another thing, notice how d3_crescentia doesn't name Amber[Light] in his post ... But then I throw Amber[Light]'s name into my post and now Amber[Light] is ALSO voting for me. You guys are obvious enough that you both are teaming up against people trying to save the town. Obvious Scums are Obvious. On May 19 2015 06:36 ShoCkeyy wrote: I just like the fact that I call three people out today and I'm getting ganged up on like in the beginning with they ganged up on damdred. If it doesn't smell like obvious mafia players, then Idk what is obvious. On November 03 2015 00:26 ShoCkeyy wrote: However in this game, that buddying up can also be assumed to knowing they're both spies. The other reason I came up to that is how they both question Rels together. Rels and rayn first started off and then Xata jumped in afterwards. On February 24 2010 11:41 ShoCkeyy wrote: I'm waiting till the next day to post all of my analysis of people. I've learned from the last game to just sit back and watch. On November 03 2015 00:43 ShoCkeyy wrote: Mostly everyone is still null for me. The first team still hasn't even gone out yet. All of these quotes come from games where he is mafia compared against posts from this game. I know this method of scum hunting can be a bit dangerous because you're cherry picking posts without context, but there were enough similarities between his play that it warrants concern. From his town games, I didn't really have success picking up many trends aside from generally low post counts, though he was willing to call players scum without having "proof" like he suggests in his most recent post. I'd say Shockeyy would be in my exclude list for the time being. Rels - Weak town He is changing his mind a lot, which suggests read progression. A lot of the posts that he is making wouldn't necessarily further his position to get included in a mission, which gives him town points. Getting into a fight with rayn early on in the game and digging up stuff on HTS when a lot of people town read her could create problems for him if he wanted to be trusted by the more vocal players. He brings a fair amount of new topics to the thread and seems to believe in most of the stuff he is posting. Something of interest is that our reads don't match up very well. Usually when town hunting you look for people that are thinking similar things. I need to decide whether one of us are off by a significant amount or if he is pushing a mafia agenda by swaying the thread in a certain direction. | ||
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1. Half the Sky 2. Xatalos 3. Artanis[Xp] 4. raynpelikoneet 5. ShoCkeyy I know that the more information the better, but I'm actually toying with the idea of approving the first team. I'd be concerned that a similar looking team may not come up again considering the leaders likely self-nominations. Hmm. | ||
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On November 04 2015 05:40 Xatalos wrote: I don't really follow the read on me, kita. I didn't say that Superbia was constantly ACTIVE, but that he was constantly engaged WHEN he was active. He immediately engaged me when I came to the thread, and interacted actively later on when he returned to the thread... Whereas you felt kind of distant / avoiding direct engagement. Well, I'm not really sure about him at the moment, but you're misrepresenting my read on him there. I guess we interpret the term engaged differently. I see it as someone who is consistently interacting with the thread, covering all the relevant talking points, while bringing new ideas to the table. On November 02 2015 20:43 Superbia wrote: Oh yeah, I also kind of didn't like Kita's big 2nd post- felt kind of forced. But not even near sure yet. This is the only time he mentions me, yet makes no attempt to interact with me despite being unsure. Shockyy and Artanis has never been mentioned in his filter, despite both of them having entered the thread by post #580. There are no nomination suggestions aimed at the leader HTS or any attempt to discuss things with her. Really the only person he has engaged is you. He had the initial exchange between you and him, a return explanation of the initial exchange, and a third response to Rels about the initial exchange. Aside from that, there was a comment about the Rels/rayn stuff and a few one liner questions, but most of his focus has been on a single topic. This all feels odd considering you town read him around the deadline, yet say I'm mafia by attacking me for "ignoring everything and leaving". Do you have any objections to anything I've said about individuals other than you? Who are you thinking about for tomorrow at the moment? | ||
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On November 04 2015 06:35 JudgeJudy wrote: Why would you say this doesn't apply to Xatalos? He was the one that was rather insistent to be included in place of super on day one. He didn't go as far as attacking super directly, but he brought up reasons why he shouldn't be considered 100% town and definitely suggested that he should be included on multiple occasions. | ||
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On November 04 2015 06:31 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Uh, I think you're missing something here Kita. Oh yeah it looks like I lost a couple of paragraphs somewhere...at least artanis gets townie points for reading. I'm sure there are several people who skipped through it. I think the general gist was that she had the opportunity to nominate all the good looking players and withdraw from the thread while ensuring that she could get away with looking good herself, but she continued to dig into stuff throughout the day. | ||
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On November 04 2015 06:13 raynpelikoneet wrote: Rels do you think i am scum? Also what are the situations where you do not pick yourself into the team as a leader? On November 03 2015 18:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am actually quite sure Artanis/SL are both town. Could you explain these reads more? Also, do you have any thoughts now that I shared the reads you asked for? | ||
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On November 04 2015 06:41 kitaman27 wrote: Could you explain these reads more? Also, do you have any thoughts now that I shared the reads you asked for? EBWOP I mean the Artanis/Sl ones, dunno how the first post got quoted. | ||
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On November 04 2015 06:42 Xatalos wrote: Not really much to say about your other reads since they're pretty... vague? (kita) Nothing else at least really caught my attention. How about shockey then? That one wasn't very vague. | ||
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On November 04 2015 06:53 Xatalos wrote: Tbh it kinda was... Basically "could go both ways"... Isn't that the ultimate vague read? Tbh the way you made your read indicates that it should mild-strong scumread instead, but... The conclusion is just that. lol maybe it was less vague in my mind. XD The conclusion was scum leaning if it wasn't clear. "I never called you mafia directly" "You're ignoring me when I try to interact with you" "These guys are suspicious because they both jump in to make the same point" "I'm going to watch how things play out before providing strong reads" Would you consider these common themes between his past mafia games and this one to be a concern or is the connection more likely to be a coincidence in your opinion? How do you interpret his post that he hasn't directly called rayn mafia because he doesn't have proof? | ||
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On November 04 2015 08:52 Superbia wrote: I'm not caught up at all and won't be for now. I have approx 15m before sleepytimes. Do you plan to be caught up tomorrow? Its really been a while now since you've given your thoughts. | ||
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On November 04 2015 09:09 Superbia wrote: All right. Listen. You do not genuinely discuss your vote before you vote, you do so after. Mafia does not have a QT, they cannot communicate. Part of the game- and part of the play as town- is to keep mafia in the dark as to what the voting is going to be. There are voting trends that can be gained and analyzed if this is kept as it is. I was hoping people would do this. So please, next time, do not do this. Discuss who you think is mafia during all phases. We discuss our votes after voting is revealed. Odd that you didn't bother to actually look. There is very little explanation for him voting pass on a rayn group. | ||
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On November 04 2015 09:27 ShoCkeyy wrote: Kitaman, question did you only read my mafia games? No skimmed through both. | ||
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On November 04 2015 13:18 ShoCkeyy wrote: What? I knew they would be public and I did say any team that went ahead that wasn't xata rayn would be fine by me. I don't get what makes me look bad by voting yes?... Out of the eight other players, wasn't rayn the one you were most suspicious of at that point? Why pass a rayn only team or a xata only team, but not a rayn + xata team? Is everyone else really trustworthy enough that you'd be willing to pass 77 out of 84 possible combinations? | ||
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On November 04 2015 06:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: Could you explain these reads more? Also, do you have any thoughts now that I shared the reads you asked for? Yeah i do. But you have to wait until i get home since i am out with friends and i hate posting on phone.[/QUOTE] Now a good time? | ||
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On November 04 2015 23:35 raynpelikoneet wrote: Also i will get back to your post kitaman, it will take some time though. I read the thread on my phone last night but i i don't remember much of it. Woke up just a while ago so i need to eat something first. ninja'd. heh k | ||
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On November 04 2015 23:42 Rels wrote: That is awesome! Thanks for that, that will be useful later. You're probably town for this effort too. Even though the last game he is referring to with this chart was how he tricked people to trust him as mafia? | ||
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Heh I'm aware of that. I was waiting to see if anyone was going to hop on it to draw conclusions -_- | ||
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On November 05 2015 00:03 Superbia wrote: Kita read your own filter with me please. You make two posts on me basically pushing scum on me and then conclude I'm leaning town in your list post. How the fuck does this happen? I believe it was weak town, not leaning town. I wouldn't want you on an team at the moment. A lot of the stuff that I have posted on you was attacking Xat's town read on you based on his instance that you were engaged with the game. Mostly I think you're inactive. I didn't like the over explanation stuff. I think that the actual exchange with xat wasn't too bad. A xat + sup duo seems a bit unlikely, but perhaps that's a poor way to look at things. I really won't have a strong idea one way or the other until you have time to play considering you haven't talked about nominations at all this game and we are on day three. | ||
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On November 05 2015 00:52 Superbia wrote: Nvm about being scared on rayn. This fucking line just solidifies him as town: I don't even care that I'm in this list, this echoes my thoughts so much (mostly the second list- I would replace myself with sicklucker). Touching on HTS, SL and myself a bit more would be nice to hear about next when you have a chance. | ||
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On November 05 2015 01:29 Xatalos wrote: Overall, would be nice to hear more opinions on the current proposal. From you, from Superbia, and others. I'm leaning towards reject at the moment. I wouldn't feel comfortable passing a team with you still. I think there are better alternatives than sicklucker, though I'm still kinda null on him so he wouldn't totally kill a team. rayn has also owed me a response for a while, so I'm waiting on that. Preferably I'd be looking at something like Kita/artanis/rayn, though I'm obviously aware that you wouldn't do something like that. Maybe one of HTS/Rels in place of myself if need be (?). | ||
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On November 05 2015 01:26 Superbia wrote: Perhaps you are right in this argument. In any case we should probably not pursue it any further now as it will not help me evaluate Rels in any sort of way. Kita is still up in the air at this point, he's not in my town circle. (My PoE scum list is: Rels, Shockey, Kita, Sicklucker, HtS/maybe you) I'm mostly going off the votes here: - There's a general feel that it is obvious most people will vote no- so scum (as having no QT) are more likely to vote with the general consensus (not sticking out etc.). - Mafia are very likely to vote yes on a mission with a mafia. Unless the consensus is against it. Consensus takes heavy priority over everything for mafia. - Mafia are somewhat likely to vote no on a mission with only town. They can vote yes to look good, especially early on. This can very easily go against consensus ("see, I told you the mission would pass!"). - Mafia are very likely to vote no on a mission with only town, if the situation is dire. - Stand out vote is usually either trolly or complete confidence. I don't think shockey was/had either. So: If the team consisted of town, and my PoE is correct: - Mafia is likely: Rels, shockey, sicklucker. If the team had a mafia, and my PoE is correct: - Mafia is likely: Rels, Kita, Shockey/SL. OR Rels, HtS (who would attempt to frame Kita), shockey/SL. I think this makes sense for the most part. There isn't anything that I strictly disagree with in theory. The biggest problem I have is that PoE reads are useful for figuring things out yourself, but kinda less relevant to everyone else because they can't make the assumption that you are town, which is pretty important for this to work. Aside from the PoE analysis, what type of things make you suspicious of Shockey or HTS from their posting history? Does it really matter who HTS frames between you, Xat, and myself? I suppose a spy HTS would be hesitant to nominate a town superbia who hasn't posted for a while, but what's the different from a town xat and a town kita to her? | ||
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On November 05 2015 01:46 Rels wrote: I don't understand how you can say "scums are more likely to vote with the general consensus (not sticking out etc.)." and put Shockey in your POE list. You then say "Stand out vote is usually either trolly or complete confidence. I don't think shockey was/had either.", which doesn't explain it. Expand please ? [/QUOTE] From what I gathered, he means that ""scums are more likely to vote with the general consensus" to only apply when the team has at least one mafia. | ||
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From what I gathered, he means that ""scums are more likely to vote with the general consensus" to only apply when the team has at least one mafia.[/QUOTE] Hence ignoring general consensus for "town cred" if the nominated team is clean and you know it's going to fail. | ||
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On November 05 2015 01:53 Rels wrote: Wait a minute. So your scum team is Superbia / Shockey / SL, since you're townreading everybody else. Can you tell me why would HTS would follow the town sentiment to the point of considering putting herself out of her own team, in the first draft of the first mission ? Especially since, like she said, she didn't have much time to properly think. Xat is missing. I also questioned why she would suggest excluding herself for the sake of passing the group when it initially happened. I don't have a great explanation other than she was willing to toy with the idea of making a sub-optimal play, which sometimes happens as town. I don't think it was very likely that she would have removed herself, though I could be wrong. Right now the good outweighs the bad for me. Something like 70/30. | ||
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On November 05 2015 02:17 raynpelikoneet wrote: The difference is i am not calling Xatalos scum and i am calling you scum. Not sure how that applies to the spy HTS scenario being referenced. | ||
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On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yes, again, technically you are absolutely correct here. I created a narrative and called you scum for it. Well to be exact i explained to HtS why your play doesn't make you town, but yes, i found out your play to be more likely to come from scum. But in my opinion i have good reasons to think the narrative i was entertaining is the right one. Mmk I don't have much to disprove that the narrative doesn't work because I indeed did find Xatalos and Super suspicious around the time the nomination phase was finalized. Maybe playing a game with 70% Europeans makes it seem as if I'm late to the party on certain things, but on day one I think a lot of that stuff just happened to come out when I had time to look at stuff, rather than a lack of "pro-activeness" or whatever. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: sicklucker and Artanis - i disagree on the null read. I have explained why. Artanis I am feeling more comfortable with so I'd put him into leaning town for what it is worth. I would think about including him in town nominations at the moment. I'd say the "not playing towards anything" explanation that you initially applied to Artanis doesn't apply anymore. Do you think the read holds true? I'm less confident about the explanation towards SL at this point. Are there specific examples of the what you are saying about him that are consistent enough be confident here? On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: I kinda understand the read on HtS. What gives me pause on HtS is the fact that he last-second swapped Xatalos to you. Now i don't think you are both mafia with HtS. The problem is why does he swap? On November 02 2015 21:10 Half the Sky wrote: Will almost certainly be leaving Kita off. On November 02 2015 23:44 Half the Sky wrote: and right now I'm not seeing a town Kita. On November 03 2015 00:14 Half the Sky wrote: Kita was more scummy than Rels On November 03 2015 01:26 Half the Sky wrote: there's no way I'm ever putting Kita on at this moment On November 03 2015 01:50 Half the Sky wrote: Going to be blunt, that's not happening, Kita is definitely not happening right now The thing here is that she shares this opinion like seven or eight times and then suddenly swaps at the deadline. I was rather surprised at the time too. I agree the explanation for the swap wasn't very clear. However it somewhat suggest that she is more concerned with selecting the right team rather than worrying about the backlash that might come considering the earlier statements. From a spy HTS position, I think her priority would be to get a team that passes. The suggestion that it would be easier to blame a failed mission on myself than xatalos seems less important than finding a team that passes so you can ensure that there isn't a mission 1-2-3 combo. In my opinion, HTS-Xat-rayn seemed more likely to pass at the time. I guess it would be easier for her to buddy me if she felt that I was going to come out looking pretty townie later on in the game, that she might as well swap earlier on. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am really conflicted with your reads on Rels and Xatalos. The first thing that raises my eyebrows is the fact that you read other people based on motivation, but there is zero analysis of motivation regarding Xatalos. The read on Xatalos is actually based on something you think is scummy in what he has said. The fact is, if you read Rels' posts in this light, there is literally way way way more things that are just plain out fucking scummy. I disagree. There was a bit of stuff that I considered on Xat's motivation. Out of the nine players in the game, I felt he was the most aggressive in ensuring his inclusion for the day one nomination. There were instances where he tried to push himself over super. I felt that his lack of any real mafia reads made it seem like he was trying to avoid conflict for the most part. I felt that the later follow up explanation on super/myself wasn't genuine. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why does he give out a townread on him based on "shit reasons" when he has scumread Superbia before? It doesn't make any sense, especially if the reasoning is -- as you claim -- made up, and he doesn't genuinely think so. I also think the read on you at the time was not scummy at all, because i felt the exact same way about you back then. I'm saying that his read was formulated and that he stuck with it. That is a bit different from something that is "made up". His initial read that superbia was engaged and that I was ignoring things may have been true at the start, but it was no longer true and didn't apply at the point where he was making that argument. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: - Why do you think his read (reasoning/changes on it) on me throughout the game is not scummy? I find that sudden shifts in opinion typically come from town. There are exceptions, but "player x is definitely y" and then quickly seeing something else that changes their mind is kinda townie, where mafia tend to dwell on stuff. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: - Why do you think his townread on ShoCkeyy was not scummy? It was literally based on the worst, and the most scummy post in this thread. I shared similar sentiment that ShoCkeyy was playing so odd that it seemed as if he was suicide himself from inclusion at any point. This still is true for the most part, though the other stuff outweighs this at the moment. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:[/B - Why is it impossible that he changes his read on HtS when he does (or rather -- more likely to come from town)? If HtS is town (as you assume) and i am town (as you assume) and i think you assume you are town anyways --> HtS has put on a team that is all town, what choise does he have? He has to call someone scum. I don't find his reasoning to be even good. I'm not quite clear what you are asking here. Maybe you could rephrase it if possible. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: - Why do you read Rels town for his "level of engagement". This is something that I tend to stick to during the first cycles of the game. If you are putting effort in then I'm more willing to trust you than someone who isn't. Enabling players to afk early on rarely works out. As time goes on later into the game, content becomes more important than activity. I'm also watching for things like when the activity occurs and whether or not certain players are more motivated at times that benefit themselves or times that benefit town overall. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't like this post, and the fact that you are not looking behind the words at all. Let's break this into pieces: My reasoning for doing this is the following: 1) town - i believe that you three are scum (in which case it makes this the best play if all of you three agree - it just does, as the town auto-wins after regardless of what team we choose next ) 2) town - i believe there is a chance that you all three are scum, and i know you will never agree to this as either alignment 3) mafia - idk... you can insert your reasoning here because you seem to think there could be a reason, i can't give one, since i am not mafia and i would never do that when i am ALREADY on the team and (heavily) townread by 7 other players.... I explained why one was not valid earlier on I believe. The better strategy is to exclude those three players from nominations and increase your chances of success by giving you room for error. Two doesn't lead us anywhere. I guess you could argue that you wanted to see how certain players would react, but the reaction that I would expect from both sides would be "lol this is bad" so it's more of a free setup opinion for a spy to give, rather than anything of importance. As for three, I hardly gave a scum read. Mostly a "why is a town rayn pushing a plan so terrible. Is he bold enough to think he could get away with this as a spy" read? I think it would have been a lot easier to simply ask me for opinions on Shockyy and Rels, rather than some random plan to bait it out of me, but meh. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Your read on Xatalos (and his (and my) read on you) is the biggest issue here, since other people can't agree to anything. The fact is that there is basically no other team than me/you/Xatalos that will EVER go to the first mission based on people's reads and how they differ from other people's reads. I don't think this is true. I'm pretty sure 5/9 town will be willing to compromise at some point or the other to get a nomination to go through. It's tough, but that's how games like this go. I think there would be very few players who reject a mission 3/4 if it meant going to 5. [B]On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Like... you have to admit there is a chance you are wrong on Xatalos. I don't find your case good. I admit i COULD be wrong on Xatalos, i am just really fucking sure of my read, more sure than anything else in this game. I also admit i am not sure if you are mafia or town, because historically i am not that good in reading you and i kinda end up thinking you are scum in any game we are in. Sure there is. I don't think I have any reads that stretch outside the 70% confidence level at this point. Right now I find the things that Xatalos has done to point more likely to spy than not, but nothing is set in stone and it's definitely possible for things to change. | ||
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On November 05 2015 03:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: She thinks both you and kita are town but she picks the person that is least likely to get yay-voted in the team. It makes very little sense. What would be the mafia motivation to suggest a team with a less optimal chance of success here? | ||
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On November 05 2015 03:34 Xatalos wrote: What do you mean that I didn't have any real reads and that my explanation wasn't "genuine"? At the time, I think you just said "I guess we have different views on the word 'engaged' then" or something.... Scum reads, not reads in general. They were all town reads at the time. As for the engaged stuff I think I explained how he hadn't interacted with hardly anyone at all at that point, unless you are asking something different? | ||
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On November 05 2015 03:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: If HtS is mafia it comes down to this: Yeah I guess it's another one of those "if player x is spy, this explains things" rather than "this happened, therefore player x is probably spy". | ||
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On November 05 2015 03:58 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't have much to say to your big post kita. I just disagree. I suggest you go read Rels' scumgames to see what he is capable of: Season of the Witch II[/ur] Battle of Drams Basically the cases he makes look "good" but they are boring. lol, i can't explain that better. Like here Superbia and to some extent HtS are like furious and spit flames everywhere (like BM in SotW game) when getting into argument with Rels. Rels is just.. boring, and the reasoning is boring. And he makes conclusions that don't make any sense, at all. Okay I'll take a look. | ||
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On November 05 2015 05:15 raynpelikoneet wrote: No it isnt. It is another instance where i elaborate to "this action has no scum motive" with "here is the scum motive". i dont like when i am asked about something - or been given non-logical arguments - and answer them, people turn them around and say something irrelevant instead of agreeing/disagreeing with what i ACTUALLY say... Already disagreed here. On November 05 2015 03:23 kitaman27 wrote: From a spy HTS position, I think her priority would be to get a team that passes. The suggestion that it would be easier to blame a failed mission on myself than xatalos seems less important than finding a team that passes so you can ensure that there isn't a mission 1-2-3 combo. In my opinion, HTS-Xat-rayn seemed more likely to pass at the time. | ||
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On November 05 2015 02:11 ShoCkeyy wrote: I also don't need to place myself on my own team if I'm confident on who is town. Back to work. The problem that I have here is that you said you would pass every combination except the xat + rayn combo. rayn really seems to be the player you were most suspicious of on day one, yet you sent it through. Also, don't get discouraged by everyone scum reading you if you are indeed town. People are going to reject pretty much anything you say if the hive mind is against you. Just keep trucking and maybe it will help sometime down the road | ||
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On November 05 2015 04:53 Xatalos wrote: Not all. I did scumread you, for example, and shockeyy/Rels were pushing into scum territory. I don't remember finding anything on shockeyy and Rels you had a townie sounding null at the time. I acknowledge that it changed later on. On November 05 2015 04:53 Xatalos wrote: I did admit that Superbia wasn't as engaged back then as I had thought earlier, and that most of his posts being directed at me may have blinded me a bit. Besides I was mostly talking about the quantity of his engagement, not how many people it was directed to. Noted. On November 05 2015 04:53 Xatalos wrote: If you looked at my meta, you'd see that I'm pretty clearly town already. What you've brought is pretty much either misrepresented or not indicative of anything, such as me being wrong on some small detail... Whenever possible I try to avoid meta arguments because it relies on that player not being aware of their town tendencies. Otherwise you could simply emulate them as mafia. Here you certainly are aware because you suggest that your meta makes you clearly town. It wouldn't be fair to assume that you're terrible at mafia. | ||
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On November 05 2015 05:32 ShoCkeyy wrote: The reason I passed it was because if a sabotage happened on the first mission, then that can just fuel the suspicion even more and more people would start to see what I'm talking about. Also, Idc if people scum read me, I've been playing TL Mafia since the mafia forums first opened ;p Maybe you explained this and I just didn't interpret it correctly, but you could explain one more time why you would have voted this way: hts/kita/rayn = pass hts/kita/xat = pass hts/rayn/xat = fail | ||
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On November 05 2015 07:17 Rels wrote: This game: 11 pages in almost a phase OK I think it's pretty clear. p: Sample size seems large enough to make this a decent observation. | ||
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On November 05 2015 07:32 Rels wrote: Man everything you say sounds sooooo scientific. I think you do stats for a living right ? No, but I play one on tv. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + You got to keep up on your 80's cough syrup commercial references! | ||
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Need to play hangman or something. | ||
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That ship has sailed. He was actually town. Was curious if someone would take a look at the game to draw conclusions and say something along the lines of "wait a minute, Artanis was actually town that game!" for free town points. Probably a long shot anyways. | ||
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On November 05 2015 08:41 Half the Sky wrote: Aiming for until 12:30am or so... (another 45m) so if anyone wants to talk, please do. You don't need give details or anything, but where would you everyone one through nine in terms of trustworthiness? | ||
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On November 05 2015 08:09 sicklucker wrote: super likely mafia. Im positive he has no reason to scum read me he just needs an excuse not to vote the all town team On November 05 2015 09:08 sicklucker wrote: oh i liked the xatalos filter thing. i think we should pass this its very likely 3 towns from my pov Since this post infers that you didn't see the xatalos analysis until now....why does super need an excuse to reject the SL/xat/rayn team if you thought xat was scum? Wouldn't a scum super be happy to pass the team you thought had a spy in it? | ||
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On November 05 2015 09:40 sicklucker wrote: WHY would scum want a all town team to pass? You called xata scum though at that point. So it wasn't an all town team from your perspective. Yet you scum read him for wanting to reject it anyways. | ||
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On November 05 2015 10:48 raynpelikoneet wrote: Again drunk. .. Kita if you are town youre so bad. This really shouldn't come to you as a surprise by now On October 03 2013 22:32 raynpelikoneet wrote: wtf kitaman? are you fucking dumb? On March 31 2014 03:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: For someone who is supposed to be good at this game you say a lot of stupid stuff kita. On April 04 2014 09:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: we can kill kita because he is either mafia or terrible and should not be allowed to play because of badness. kthxbye | ||
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On November 05 2015 18:36 sicklucker wrote: when i said the team is all town i ment me/rayn/artanis there.. On November 05 2015 08:03 Superbia wrote: This one is probably going to get rejected straight out bc there's a good chance SL will just continue to lurk. =/ Artanis would've gotten some votes. On November 05 2015 08:09 sicklucker wrote: super likely mafia. Im positive he has no reason to scum read me he just needs an excuse not to vote the all town team So these were the posts that came within 6 minutes of each other. Super said the team would get rejected with SL, but Artanis would have gotten votes instead. Now how could you think the team was SL/rayn/artanis if super is stating that artanis should have been included in the same exact post that you respond that he is scum? | ||
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On November 06 2015 01:33 JudgeJudy wrote: When was there ever a HTS/Xata/Kita line up for you to vote for? I'm confused what you are referencing here. TL just needs to disable my post button so I'm forced to use preview. | ||
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Your two main points initially were 1) That he would bus as a spy. + Show Spoiler + On November 03 2015 21:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: SL would bus (lol). Basically as scum you want to look as town as possible and bussing is definitely not out of question, since you only need one scum onto a mission. If you, from the beginning, cut your own chances of getting to missions as scum, you basically just lose the game. And i still think SL would just bus. On November 04 2015 13:08 sicklucker wrote: unless someone can come up with evidence that shockey knew votes would be revealed he should never ever ever be on a mission One of the first things he does was explain that your strongest mafia read shockeyy should never ever be on a mission. 2) That he doesn't have a scum agenda. + Show Spoiler + On November 03 2015 19:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: It basically has to do with me not seeing him playing towards anything.. ugh... idk it is hard to explain, i don't see him having scum agenda, or anything like that behind his posting. Same basically goes to sicklucker. On November 05 2015 09:10 sicklucker wrote: like me not voting for ANY TEAM that does not include me On November 05 2015 09:46 sicklucker wrote: like i would never put up a team that didnt include me On November 04 2015 19:44 sicklucker wrote: gonna veto any xatalos unless its like me and rayn On November 05 2015 08:09 sicklucker wrote: super likely mafia. Im positive he has no reason to scum read me On November 05 2015 09:11 sicklucker wrote: im in hero pick phrase. im cooler with xata now. Essentially his strategy this game is to veto any team that doesn't include himself, attack the players that suspect him, unless his mafia read actually nominates him, then he is fine with passing the team. Why isn't this a mafia agenda? The explanation that scummy people think SL is spy, therefore he is town doesn't mean a lot considering in the first quote you say how busing isn't out of the question because you only need one spy. Doesn't the reasoning you gave point to the opposite conclusion? | ||
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On November 06 2015 03:21 Xatalos wrote: Dunno about that bus thing, but isn't it a quite restrictive scum strategy to only approve teams that you're a part of? Well it's the strategy I used as spy in Resistance 2. On February 22 2012 05:10 kitaman27 wrote: I sent my nay vote in as well. Doesn't make much sense to me to support a team where I'm not a part of on day one. On February 22 2012 05:16 kitaman27 wrote: I don't mind drawing out the voting a while if it gives us the best chance of winning. Not saying it's a good strategy or anything, but it was exactly the policy I pushed myself. | ||
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Also, we have to submit mission 2 before finding out if mission 1 passes? Never seen a game work that way. | ||
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On November 06 2015 08:04 Half the Sky wrote: I'm thinking Artanis should nominate himself, rayn and Xatalos. That is my first impression. We'd be up to four for the next mission. | ||
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On November 06 2015 01:49 kitaman27 wrote: So rayn, I'm trying to understand your read on SL. Your two main points initially were 1) That he would bus as a spy. + Show Spoiler + On November 03 2015 21:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: SL would bus (lol). Basically as scum you want to look as town as possible and bussing is definitely not out of question, since you only need one scum onto a mission. If you, from the beginning, cut your own chances of getting to missions as scum, you basically just lose the game. And i still think SL would just bus. On November 04 2015 13:08 sicklucker wrote: unless someone can come up with evidence that shockey knew votes would be revealed he should never ever ever be on a mission One of the first things he does was explain that your strongest mafia read shockeyy should never ever be on a mission. 2) That he doesn't have a scum agenda. + Show Spoiler + On November 03 2015 19:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: It basically has to do with me not seeing him playing towards anything.. ugh... idk it is hard to explain, i don't see him having scum agenda, or anything like that behind his posting. Same basically goes to sicklucker. On November 05 2015 09:10 sicklucker wrote: like me not voting for ANY TEAM that does not include me On November 05 2015 09:46 sicklucker wrote: like i would never put up a team that didnt include me On November 04 2015 19:44 sicklucker wrote: gonna veto any xatalos unless its like me and rayn On November 05 2015 08:09 sicklucker wrote: super likely mafia. Im positive he has no reason to scum read me On November 05 2015 09:11 sicklucker wrote: im in hero pick phrase. im cooler with xata now. Essentially his strategy this game is to veto any team that doesn't include himself, attack the players that suspect him, unless his mafia read actually nominates him, then he is fine with passing the team. Why isn't this a mafia agenda? The explanation that scummy people think SL is spy, therefore he is town doesn't mean a lot considering in the first quote you say how busing isn't out of the question because you only need one spy. Doesn't the reasoning you gave point to the opposite conclusion? rayn you never responded to my question. | ||
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On November 06 2015 08:17 Half the Sky wrote: Actually I should be asking Kita this same question. Kita, why? Both SL and Xata were in my bottom three, though them both being spies doesn't make a ton of sense. Gotta rethink who out of the three would be the bad guy. | ||
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I'll try to make it as simple as possible: 1) Superbia says that the team will get rejected because artanis should have been chosen instead of SL 2) You call Superbia for wanting to reject the all town team 3) The all town team that you claim to have been referring to was SL/rayn/artanis, rather than SL/rayn/xat How could 3 be true if he is clearly stating that he wanted artanis instead of SL? | ||
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It made much more sense for a town Xata to nominate Artanis from his position I would think. Him not doing so may suggest that he didn't want a double spy team day one. Need to evaluate if his reasoning to nominate SL over Artanis makes sense. | ||
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On November 07 2015 08:31 Half the Sky wrote: Alright Artanis if you think that's the case, they cannot communicate through a mafia QT, how would they know whether to pass or fail when there's a partner on the mission? I'm just saying from a likeliness standpoint. You've got to be kidding me HTS. You want to go over a pass/fail strategy in the thread.....? | ||
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Also, if you prefered Xata/rayn/artanis over Xata/rayn/SL why not simply reject the nomination? You knew Aratanis was the next mission leader, right? | ||
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On November 07 2015 08:53 Xatalos wrote: I guess SL's position on me and the missions is somewhat unnatural. He first scumreads me for not 100% townreading him at first... But he'd still want to go on a mission during my leadership, and even include me on the second mission if the first mission passed. Not really sure what his read on me was at this point? Still scum? Null? It kind of feels like it's a town lean or something already. And then when he's included with me and rayn, I'm very likely town...? Would be very curious to hear about this read progression on me. Why wasn't this a concern when you chose to nominate him? | ||
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On November 07 2015 10:09 sicklucker wrote: ok i called it an all town team. I was suspicious of super The reason you say you are suspicious of super isn't possible though. You called him scum because you say you thought he wanted to reject SL/rayn/artanis. You can't think he was referring to a SL/rayn/artanis team because he said he wanted Artanis instead of SL in the post you called him scum for. How can he want artanis in place of SL if they are both in the team you think he is referring to? Does anyone else get what I'm saying or am I talking to a wall? | ||
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On November 07 2015 11:06 sicklucker wrote: I called super scum for calling the xata team would fail. On November 05 2015 08:09 sicklucker wrote: super likely mafia. Im positive he has no reason to scum read me he just needs an excuse not to vote the all town team On November 05 2015 18:36 sicklucker wrote: when i said the team is all town i ment me/rayn/artanis there.. These statements contradict each other. | ||
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On November 07 2015 11:35 ShoCkeyy wrote: Kita thoughts on me after the first mission? Town points for voting reject. I'd say you are still probably in my bottom four based on posting. Who is your preferred team this cycle? | ||
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On November 07 2015 22:50 Half the Sky wrote: Same thing I told Kita. At the time I was TRing Xata/Rayn and sicklucker like I said was 60/40 on him even though I was more sure on you. I still don't understand this. If you wanted Xata/Rayn/Artanis instead of Xata/Rayn/SL why did you vote yes? Voting no gives you Xata/Rayn/Artanis because Artanis was up next. | ||
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On November 08 2015 02:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: the thing is if the mission somehow gets sabotaged, people will blame me. and i will get mad for it. and both of the possible mafia (SL/Xata) don't want the team (excluding me) to go anyways. I think it is just better play, and i think Rels is not mafia. You can blame me post game if he is scum. This makes no sense. You prioritize whether or not people will blame you over whether or not mission two will pass? If mission two fails, the game is almost certainly over. How townie you look at that point would be the least of your worries. | ||
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On November 08 2015 02:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: No it isn't. As i said whoever Artanis nominates i am gonna vote yes for (unless he puts both of SL/Xatalos onto the team). I am just giving my opinion. Why do you disagree with me wanting to swap myself with Rels, you are townreading him, no? What % sure are you that HTS is scum right now? | ||
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On November 08 2015 02:12 kitaman27 wrote: What % sure are you that HTS is scum right now? Yeah, I'm still leaning town on Rels by the way. | ||
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On November 08 2015 02:13 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am genuinely curious kitaman. Do you think i am scum? If i am i must be scum with someone on the team right? Who is that someone? Right now I'm thinking SL was the spy last mission, though I'm not completely town reading Xat. I think you're playing sub-optimally if you are town. Sending those four means you have to be perfect on your HTS/Shockyy/(1 from mission 1) assumption. | ||
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On November 08 2015 02:18 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay. To be honest i am most confident of Artanis being scum outside the mission 1 and hts/shockeyy. I really don't think Rels is mafia. Therefore it doesn't matter at all if me - Rels goes onto a mission, and i can't make Artanis swap himself with me right? Yes, you can. Your policy that you will pass any Artanis mission is what is keeping you from nominating yourself over him, no? Is there not a difference between "I think X is town" and "I know I am town"? | ||
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ShoCkeyy rayn/HTS rels/kita/artanis/super Xata/SL (???) Half the Sky Artanis, kita, rayn, SL Xatalos/Shockeyy Super/Rels (???) Rels HTS/Arta/SL kita/shockeyy/super/xata rayn (???) Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Sicklucker 2 scum out of shockeyy/HTS/Superbia/Rels/kita Artanis, rayn Superbia Xatalos//Kita/Artanis/Rels One of SL/rayn + Shockeyy HTS ??? raynpelikoneet artanis, Xata, super, kita, Rels Shockeyy, SL, HTS sicklucker Shockyy/Xatalos/kita artanis/rayn/rels/super/hts As for me I'd say that I'm leaning on SL being the scum from mission two, with Xata being the secondary suspect if SL is town. I'm still leaning mafia on Shockyy and the remaining mafia would be in a pool of HTS/super/Artanis. | ||
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On November 09 2015 02:28 sicklucker wrote: xata if your the town in rayn/you your literally losing town the game thinking the way you do. People like shockey/rels who voted no on a mission that failed are not going to be scum very often. you need to adjust your reads as scum bro Two out of your three scum reads voted no, didn't they? Or am I wrong about your reads listed above? | ||
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On November 09 2015 03:40 sicklucker wrote: its the worst attempt i ever ever seen. Like you dont even know your top scum reads. reads? your wrong about like 4 people on that list. more like town shockey rels hts scum everyone else but especially you So everyone else would be some combination of myself/super/artanis/xat? On November 08 2015 01:47 sicklucker wrote: i would vote yes for artanis/rayn/rels/super Yet you would pass this team? The reason I keep asking you about your reads is because you contradict yourself every other post. | ||
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On November 09 2015 08:24 Xatalos wrote: Btw why am I missing from this list >.> Overall, I'd be much more interested to hear your own reads rather than listing others' reads. You were there. I did miss listing Artanis though. I'm still not totally sure what he is thinking based on the most recent post that he didn't want his team to pass. My reads were at the bottom if you missed it. Right now I'd prefer a team something like kita/rels/rayn + 1 of HTS/super/Artanis. I'm still not sure which of those three I'd bring along. | ||
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On November 09 2015 08:19 Artanis[Xp] wrote: So yeah, I suggested a team I didn't actually want to see who was going to vote yes on it, gauge responses and all that. I figure after the first mission fails we want to gather some more information anyway. Like Rayn said, there'd be limited information on submitting a team with me/him/Superbia/Kitaman as someone like sicklucker would have an excuse to vote no without really backing it up. Now, we get to hear justifications for things. If you were to nominate a team you did indeed want to pass, what would it have been? | ||
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On November 09 2015 07:23 Half the Sky wrote: In a world where Rels is town, does a Xatalos/Artanis/TBD team make sense? Food for thought and for future reference. Initially I thought the best reason to draw the connection would be his choice to nominate SL over Artanis. Four or five times in a row Xata lists SL/Artanis in the same sentence when discussing nominations. He continues to list them both as null or townish null and states that his choice will depend on their posting. However, in the end he goes with SL without a clear explanation of the preference. Overall they don't interact with each other a ton, but there was this post after nominations. I thought the explanation was kinda lame. On November 04 2015 21:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I townread all three of you and we're going to have to nominate three people that aren't me in all future missions, so why not? The problem though is the argument falls apart when you consider that a scum Xata would likely choose a town SL as the setup guy, so Artanis's alignment isn't as relevant because he would likely be excluded if he were town or mafia. | ||
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On November 09 2015 07:03 ShoCkeyy wrote: Now for this next mission coming up, I really don't like the fact that Kita has a ton of mafia leans still while never giving his reads fully. Makes me question him at this point, but then there is Artanis too. I'd say two mafia reads plus a third in a pool of three players isn't a ton, is it? Is there anything that you'd like me to clear up? Also, it's not totally clear why you voted yes today. Could you go into why you wanted it to pass a bit more? | ||
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On November 09 2015 22:23 raynpelikoneet wrote: kitaman what do you want me to pick? Right now I'm at rayn/kita/rels/super Maybe I could be convinced to replace super with someone else. It would be swell if he could post something. | ||
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On November 10 2015 02:53 Half the Sky wrote: Kita could you please answer why you think SL's erratic posting is alignment indicative? I asked a question of you sometime back....ehh let me find it. His strategy is essentially to accept any team that includes himself and attack any player that attacks him. I feel this is alignment indicative because it's exactly how I played as spy in resistance 2. + Show Spoiler + On November 03 2015 22:20 sicklucker wrote: yo xataloser is a bad guy On November 03 2015 22:24 sicklucker wrote: he failed my omgus test where I omgus people who put doubt on my not giving a fuck. I call it plan no give a fuck On November 03 2015 22:29 sicklucker wrote: No but I figured scum would go out of there way to not let me get away with being a shitty player On November 03 2015 22:36 sicklucker wrote: Note that xata is annoyed trying to convince me otherwise and backtracked later with reasons to townread me. He didnt bring this reason up when he complained to rayn On November 04 2015 19:44 sicklucker wrote: Like do you want me to summarize my filter for you. Ive given my plan. gonna veto any xatalos unless its like me and rayn then ill reread his shit. Taking it day by day. playing the long and underwhelming game On November 05 2015 09:43 sicklucker wrote: like if xata picks the team i want (he did kinda) that proves to me i can probably trust him He scum reads Xata, explains why, and states that he would reject any team with Xata unless SL is included. Whether or not your scum read brings you along on a mission set up for failure should not influence your read on that player. Xata + X + Y = Fail because Xata is scum Xata + X + SL = Pass because ???? He later explains that he "didnt think a scum xata would have the balls". He didn't have the balls to bring along a townie? As opposed to bring along some other random townie? Huh? Next, he calls super scum because super stated that the Xat/rayn/SL team would get rejected and that SL should have been replaced by Artanis. He explains that super wanted to reject the all town team, even though he didn't think Xat was mafia at the time. He then explains that the all town team in reference was rayn/SL/artanis. This doesn't make sense either because the post SL attacked super for stated that he wanted SL replaced by artanis. On November 09 2015 02:28 sicklucker wrote: xata if your the town in rayn/you your literally losing town the game thinking the way you do. People like shockey/rels who voted no on a mission that failed are not going to be scum very often. you need to adjust your reads as scum bro Next he uses this explanation to state that shockeyy and rels are town. Yet his scum reads include myself and super, also no voters. He is using the same argument to state that certain players are town, yet ignores his own argument in regards to others. He buddies the players that town read him and attack the players the scum read him. Right now the policy he is pushing is to fail every team until it is his turn to nominate himself. | ||
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On November 10 2015 06:46 Vivax wrote: I'm vigilant about kita as he's one of the people I can get really paranoid about. I have a history of reading him correctly too so until I get to do that and given that his first posts in the game didn't really scream town to me, I'd prefer to not have him on a mission for now. I'd be fine with rayn/me/shockey/Rels How does your paranoia in past games have anything to do with my alignment this game? -_- If you're going to justify my exclusion, there better be a solid case explaining why. | ||
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On November 10 2015 22:02 Xatalos wrote: Then again, otherwise this will probably go to SL's decision -> fail..... It's like picking between ebola and AIDS.... Just to be clear, am I the Ebola or the AIDS in this metaphor? This is very important. | ||
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On November 10 2015 06:31 Half the Sky wrote: First "the scum xata wouldn't have the balls" that comes from the fact that sicklucker thought xatalos would give himself away too easily with a team of two players that were more obviously read as town. rayn even said sicklucker was obvious town, and though other players were more doubtful on sicklucker (myself included) from his OWN perspective and especially where sicklucker had a more inflated view of himself as town, this would actually make sense. If you think about it from sicklucker's perspective it would make sense for town sicklucker to think that a scum xatalos wouldn't have the "balls" to reject a mission and given himself away in a 3-man mission team where the other two were more solidly townread. Why do you say SL was more solidly townread? Of the people who accepted the mission: Xatalos - Town read rayn/Xat more than SL Half the Sky - Town read rayn/Xat more than SL raynpelikoneet - Town read rayn/Xat more than SL Artanis - Town read rayn/Xat more than SL Even if you include the rejects votes, there wasn't a huge amount of SL support. If anything, this points to a scum Xat wanting to bring along SL as the fall guy, not making a "ballsy move". On November 10 2015 06:31 Half the Sky wrote: He also said something else to the effect of "oh wait maybe I can trust xata if he put out a team I wanted or a team with him on it or what have you" - again I don't remember full context without opening a thousand tabs on my phone but that was another point in his favour. You suggest that it is a point in his favor, but I'd say that it suggests he prioritizes self-inclusion over mission success. On November 10 2015 06:31 Half the Sky wrote: From a meta standpoint, (reference Void, Drams) scum sicklucker is concerned about giving away information on his teammates. A few other people have already pointed this out, but I don't think this applies very well considering voting no unless he is included has the opposite effect. He doesn't have to worry about his teammate's inclusion at all if he can include himself. | ||
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On November 09 2015 07:33 ShoCkeyy wrote: Reason why I say that is because I suggested this team a while back. Not voting yes will look bad on my end anyways If you wanted the team to pass, why did you include that tid bit about how you would have looked bad by rejecting at the end? | ||
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And remember folks, when you do find the need to excrete fecal matter, make sure to avoid direct contact with others. For more information on how Ebola is transmitted and what you can do to help prevent it, visit the World Heath Organization. | ||
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On November 11 2015 01:27 ShoCkeyy wrote: I just don't care what rayn has to say about me. Big difference. At the end of the game you're all going to feel really shitty when I come out as town and realize rayn was mafia the whole game. Could be. Unfortunately being right is only half the battle. | ||
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On November 11 2015 08:14 raynpelikoneet wrote: You need to understand. .. HtS, that just because i say "fuck you" to you or to anyone, instead of you telling me "you played bad" in a game where i found all scum it does not make me toxic.. ever.. sure you can try, but when i call out your bs take it, or prove me wrong. It makes you delusional. I say what i think. Just because you are more sensitive with words or as a person what the fuck ever idc. Get your facts straight and dont feed ppl with bs. | ||
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On November 12 2015 03:56 Half the Sky wrote: AT THAT TIME, he mentioned they couldn't possibly stand out as teammates, but both have one major thing in common - the reads on each other were a stretch which is common(ish) when mafia need to discredit each other. From the first failed mission I am 99.9% Xatalos is the saboteur, and the above plus sicklucker's points on Superbia (prior to the fully afk) lurky game make this combination a bit more likely. Again, let me remind everyone SUPERBIA HAD JACK ALL ON NOMS Day 1. From a mafia mindset he might not have wanted to give anyone away! Thoughts? Kita, Kita, Kita, where are you... When you were on the fence with the day one team between Xata and Super, Xata seemed pretty interested in getting himself included. He didn't discredit the super team completely, but he showed the preference towards being the one you chose. If they were buddies, it wouldn't really matter much which of the two was picked. I suppose he could be trying to emulate how a town player would think there. Super voting no on the rayn/xata/SL team suggests they aren't buddies, but I guess one of the spies voted no d1 if today fails, unless rayn is the bad guy. I'll have to do a re-read on super/vivax and Rels if the game isn't over in a couple hours. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 12:11 kitaman27 wrote: My fellow players, I present to you the greatest advancement in scum hunting techniques since the Mafia Report Card and the Day Three Mayor Election. I am proud to introduce Mafia Combinatorics! In an 11 player setup with three mafia members, there are 165 possible mafia team combinations. However, by attempting to only identify a pair of scum buddies, this number can be significantly reduced. By assuming that you are town*, there are three valid pairs in a group of 45 combinations. If you are able to identify two town players with a high degree of confidence, this number is reduced to three in a group of 28 pairings. Rather than attempting to look for a pair of scum buddies, I shall attempt to identify pairs who are not scum buddies. Even if a valid pair is eliminated due to poor reasoning, there are still two other correct combinations, which allows me to make multiple mistakes before I've eliminated all valid solutions. Through process of elimination, I shall use this list to generate a vote that is slightly better than random, but only with your help! I will attempt to include an updated spoilered list in every post with the cominbations that have not been eliminated based on interactions in the thread, lynch flips, night hits, and strong town reads. If you strongly disagree with a combination that has been eliminated or you believe that I should consider removing a pair for various reasons, let me know! Eliminating yourself because you are town is not a valid suggestion. That only works for me because I'm special. The mafia team is now facing a ticking time bomb. Will they manage to kill me before the game is solved? Will I realize this is a terrible idea that is incredibly time inefficient? Will I be ignored because you guys are unable to appreciate the greatness of my plans? Find out! * Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that this may not be a valid assumption before applying Mafia Combinatorics to a game. + Show Spoiler [Potential Mafia Pairs] + {Foolishness,Marvellosity} {Foolishness,Promethelax} {Foolishness,Austinmcc} {Foolishness,Sandroba} {Foolishness,VisceraEyes} {Foolishness,HolyFlare} {Foolishness,Hapahauli} {Foolishness,Gonzaw} {Marvellosity,Promethelax} {Marvellosity,Austinmcc} {Marvellosity,Sandroba} {Marvellosity,VisceraEyes} {Marvellosity,HolyFlare} {Marvellosity,Hapahauli} {Marvellosity,Gonzaw} {Promethelax,Austinmcc} {Promethelax,Sandroba} {Promethelax,VisceraEyes} {Promethelax,HolyFlare} {Promethelax,Hapahauli} {Promethelax,Gonzaw} {Austinmcc,Sandroba} {Austinmcc,VisceraEyes} {Austinmcc,HolyFlare} {Austinmcc,Hapahauli} {Austinmcc,Gonzaw} {Sandroba,VisceraEyes} {Sandroba,HolyFlare} {Sandroba,Hapahauli} {Sandroba,Gonzaw} {VisceraEyes,HolyFlare} {VisceraEyes,Hapahauli} {VisceraEyes,Gonzaw} {HolyFlare,Hapahauli} {HolyFlare,Gonzaw} {Hapahauli,Gonzaw} Mafia combinations has returned and is as inefficient as ever! Watch in amazement as I eliminate possible mafia combinations. Which completely unfounded assumption will I use to accidentally eliminate the actual mafia team? Stay tuned! kitaman27 ShoCkeyy Half the Sky kitaman27 ShoCkeyy Rels kitaman27 ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] kitaman27 ShoCkeyy Xatalos kitaman27 ShoCkeyy Vivax kitaman27 ShoCkeyy raynpelikoneet kitaman27 ShoCkeyy sicklucker kitaman27 Half the Sky Rels kitaman27 Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] kitaman27 Half the Sky Xatalos kitaman27 Half the Sky Vivax kitaman27 Half the Sky raynpelikoneet kitaman27 Half the Sky sicklucker kitaman27 Rels Artanis[Xp] kitaman27 Rels Xatalos kitaman27 Rels Vivax kitaman27 Rels raynpelikoneet kitaman27 Rels sicklucker kitaman27 Artanis[Xp] Xatalos kitaman27 Artanis[Xp] Vivax kitaman27 Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet kitaman27 Artanis[Xp] sicklucker kitaman27 Xatalos Vivax kitaman27 Xatalos raynpelikoneet kitaman27 Xatalos sicklucker kitaman27 Vivax raynpelikoneet kitaman27 Vivax sicklucker kitaman27 raynpelikoneet sicklucker ShoCkeyy Half the Sky Rels ShoCkeyy Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] ShoCkeyy Half the Sky Xatalos ShoCkeyy Half the Sky Vivax ShoCkeyy Half the Sky raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Half the Sky sicklucker ShoCkeyy Rels Artanis[Xp] ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels Vivax ShoCkeyy Rels raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] Xatalos ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] Vivax ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Xatalos raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Xatalos sicklucker ShoCkeyy Vivax raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker ShoCkeyy raynpelikoneet sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Artanis[Xp] Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels Vivax Half the Sky Rels raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] Vivax Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Xatalos raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Xatalos sicklucker Half the Sky Vivax raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky raynpelikoneet sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] Vivax Rels Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Xatalos raynpelikoneet Rels Xatalos sicklucker Rels Vivax raynpelikoneet Rels Vivax sicklucker Rels raynpelikoneet sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Xatalos raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Xatalos sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet sicklucker Xatalos Vivax raynpelikoneet Xatalos Vivax sicklucker Xatalos raynpelikoneet sicklucker Vivax raynpelikoneet sicklucker | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Look at that progress! Eliminated combinations: kitaman27 ShoCkeyy Rels kitaman27 ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] kitaman27 ShoCkeyy Xatalos kitaman27 ShoCkeyy Vivax kitaman27 ShoCkeyy raynpelikoneet kitaman27 ShoCkeyy sicklucker kitaman27 Half the Sky Rels kitaman27 Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] kitaman27 Half the Sky Xatalos kitaman27 Half the Sky Vivax kitaman27 Half the Sky raynpelikoneet kitaman27 Half the Sky sicklucker kitaman27 Rels Artanis[Xp] kitaman27 Rels Xatalos kitaman27 Rels Vivax kitaman27 Rels raynpelikoneet kitaman27 Rels sicklucker kitaman27 Artanis[Xp] Xatalos kitaman27 Artanis[Xp] Vivax kitaman27 Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet kitaman27 Artanis[Xp] sicklucker kitaman27 Xatalos Vivax kitaman27 Xatalos raynpelikoneet kitaman27 Xatalos sicklucker kitaman27 Vivax raynpelikoneet kitaman27 Vivax sicklucker kitaman27 raynpelikoneet sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Half the Sky Rels ShoCkeyy Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] ShoCkeyy Half the Sky Xatalos ShoCkeyy Half the Sky Vivax ShoCkeyy Half the Sky raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Half the Sky sicklucker ShoCkeyy Rels Artanis[Xp] ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels Vivax ShoCkeyy Rels raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] Xatalos ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] Vivax ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Xatalos raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Xatalos sicklucker ShoCkeyy Vivax raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker ShoCkeyy raynpelikoneet sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Artanis[Xp] Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels Vivax Half the Sky Rels raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] Vivax Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Xatalos raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Xatalos sicklucker Half the Sky Vivax raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky raynpelikoneet sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] Vivax Rels Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Xatalos raynpelikoneet Rels Xatalos sicklucker Rels Vivax raynpelikoneet Rels Vivax sicklucker Rels raynpelikoneet sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Xatalos raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Xatalos sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet sicklucker Xatalos Vivax raynpelikoneet Xatalos Vivax sicklucker Xatalos raynpelikoneet sicklucker Vivax raynpelikoneet sicklucker | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
It's so easy! Eliminated Combinations: ShoCkeyy Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] ShoCkeyy Half the Sky Vivax ShoCkeyy Rels Artanis[Xp] ShoCkeyy Rels Vivax ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] Vivax Half the Sky Rels Artanis[Xp] Half the Sky Rels Vivax Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] Vivax Rels Artanis[Xp] Vivax Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Half the Sky Xatalos ShoCkeyy Half the Sky raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Half the Sky sicklucker ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] Xatalos ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Xatalos raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Xatalos sicklucker ShoCkeyy Vivax raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker ShoCkeyy raynpelikoneet sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Xatalos raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Xatalos sicklucker Half the Sky Vivax raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky raynpelikoneet sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Xatalos raynpelikoneet Rels Xatalos sicklucker Rels Vivax raynpelikoneet Rels Vivax sicklucker Rels raynpelikoneet sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Xatalos raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Xatalos sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet sicklucker Xatalos Vivax raynpelikoneet Xatalos Vivax sicklucker Xatalos raynpelikoneet sicklucker Vivax raynpelikoneet sicklucker | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Pew pew pew Eliminated Combinations: ShoCkeyy Half the Sky sicklucker ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] Xatalos ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos sicklucker Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Half the Sky raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Xatalos raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Vivax raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker ShoCkeyy raynpelikoneet sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Xatalos raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Vivax raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky raynpelikoneet sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Xatalos raynpelikoneet Rels Xatalos sicklucker Rels Vivax raynpelikoneet Rels Vivax sicklucker Rels raynpelikoneet sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Xatalos raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet sicklucker Xatalos Vivax raynpelikoneet Xatalos Vivax sicklucker Xatalos raynpelikoneet sicklucker Vivax raynpelikoneet sicklucker | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Good News Everyone! We have a 1/37 shot at this. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Assumption 4: ShoCkeyy and rayn aren't scum buddies together. Too much abuse. I don't think it is scum to scum since the frustrations seem legit. Eliminated Combinations: ShoCkeyy Rels raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Xatalos raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Vivax raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy raynpelikoneet sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Xatalos raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Vivax raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky raynpelikoneet sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Xatalos raynpelikoneet Rels Xatalos sicklucker Rels Vivax raynpelikoneet Rels Vivax sicklucker Rels raynpelikoneet sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Xatalos raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet sicklucker Xatalos Vivax raynpelikoneet Xatalos Vivax sicklucker Xatalos raynpelikoneet sicklucker Vivax raynpelikoneet sicklucker | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Eliminated Combinations: Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Xatalos raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Vivax raynpelikoneet Half the Sky raynpelikoneet sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Xatalos raynpelikoneet Rels Xatalos sicklucker Rels Vivax raynpelikoneet Rels Vivax sicklucker Rels raynpelikoneet sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Xatalos raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet sicklucker Xatalos Vivax raynpelikoneet Xatalos Vivax sicklucker Xatalos raynpelikoneet sicklucker Vivax raynpelikoneet sicklucker | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Eliminated Combinations: Rels Xatalos raynpelikoneet Rels Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Xatalos raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet sicklucker Xatalos Vivax raynpelikoneet Xatalos raynpelikoneet sicklucker Vivax raynpelikoneet sicklucker Rels raynpelikoneet sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Xatalos sicklucker Rels Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Xatalos Vivax sicklucker | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Eliminated Combinations: Rels Xatalos sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Eliminated Combinations: Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Even if I don't narrow it down to a single combination, maybe I can narrow it down far enough where there is a team of four (and eventually five) that would be clean based on the combinations remaining. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Whelp this one cuts the pool in half. On November 02 2015 17:29 Rels wrote: Weird that it took kita 1 hour to answer this question, which was asked to him only a few minutes after his opening post. I think it is more likely a town player would jump on something like this, than a mafia player trying to paint me as suspicious for something so innocent. On November 02 2015 19:17 Rels wrote: LOL you have 4 different names in the database Suggests he is actually looking at database games. + Show Spoiler + On November 02 2015 23:16 Rels wrote: OK this tire me so let's lay out what happened. Timeline. 1. Superbia scumreads Xata for saying "playing scum is a nightmare". 2. Superbia asks Xata if he really thinks it's a nightmare, Xata kinda confirms. 3. Superbia uses this to make Xatalos say something he didn't: that being scum isn't nightmarish Conclusion That is the problem with Superbia's early play; twisting Xatalos' words to something he didn't mean. Now he turned that read around to townread Xatalos, and rayn is claiming it's not suspicous, which might be right. But this word-twisting stuff is scum indicative. Suggests he is looking into superbia's motivations and is bothered by contradictions. On November 03 2015 01:25 Rels wrote: This. Please comment. On November 03 2015 01:24 Rels wrote: Man EVERYBODY was up my ass when I was attacking Superbia; but I do one formal post resuming it, and nobody comments on it. Suggests that he cares about pushing things that he finds suspicious, rather than pumping out content for the sake of looking good. On November 03 2015 18:29 Rels wrote: On the other hand, I have no idea why the fuck kitaman would know anything from my scum play. Where did he say that ? He brings this up several times after the day one events. Seems like honest concern for a player who he already shared town reads about. On November 04 2015 01:29 Rels wrote: Yes of course it's a dumb thing to do. I think you should have not say anything and waited to see what rayn would have done tomorrow though. Seems like a reasonable post from someone suspicious of rayn. On November 04 2015 01:38 Rels wrote: Shockey, I can't see any scum motivation to play the way he does; having odd reads that completely differs from the thread sentiment, and defending them to the point of getting scumread for it. Passes on a very easy scum read to make with Shockeyy. Contrarian views usually point to townie. On November 05 2015 07:17 Rels wrote: Xatalos' average filter length per game Average page / phase as town: 10.19 Average page / phase as mafia: 2.51 This game: 11 pages in almost a phase OK I think it's pretty clear. p: Makes a decent effort post that enhances the credibility of a player who he probably would want to oppose from a scum standpoint at this point in the game, unless they are buddies. + Show Spoiler + On November 06 2015 18:57 Rels wrote: You have any post from them saying that ? Cause I had the same feeling, but from HTS: She justified this by saying "there's plenty to suggest Xatalos/rayn are town". She explained that for rayn, but when I made my filter length analysis on Xata she posted this: To which I answer: Since then, she doesn't do any analysis on Xata, but somehow he's so confirmed town that you have to be the scum if the mission fail. Actually, let me check her read progression. Null / will review Looking town Not the towniest but town Town but not town enough to be on her team No issue with Xata's explanations on the choice of the team Xatalos being third towniest at 7/10 Pretty sure Xata is not scum fooling us Xata is confirmed town so SL will be obvious scum if the mission fail Somehow Xata went from "I think he's town" to "he's so conf town SL will be scum if the missions fails". Especially, she said an easy way to confirm Xata would be to make a meta analysis on how shallow his reads are; she didn't do it, but Xata is somehow confirmed town in her mind. Suggests he is reading and analyzing stuff On November 06 2015 06:44 Rels wrote: Like I'm thinking about this game all the time, trying to solve it. I just love that feeling of thinking about something new that make sense lol seems genuine. Maybe I fall for things like these too easy :p On November 06 2015 18:13 Rels wrote: Suuuuper interesting! With such a close vote, we'll have a lot of infos depending on how the team does. Let's see. If the team pass there are two solutions: - it's a clean team; then there have to be 2 mafias in Shockey / kita / Superbia. Maybe 3, but it's possible one mafia went for the towncred instead if he thought the team would pass even if he voted no; since in this case, he's not on the team, it would be HTS or Arta. Given how HTS posted about her opinions on the vote, I don't see her voting "yes" in that situation when she had the perfect opportunity to vote "no" to a clean team. So if one mafia voted "yes" to a clean team, it would be Arta. - there is 1 (or more) scum in the team but he didn't make the mission failed: unlikely. The goal of the game is to win three missions for both team; exchanging town cred for 1 failure out of 3 doesn't seem to be worth it. It that happens, I think it makes Artanis town, since the plan would be to make Arta pick the same team + himself, fail the mission, and put the blame on him. So if the team passes the mission, then fails the next with SL / rayn / Xata / Arta, it probably means Arta's alignment will be determinent to solving the game; it's either Arta being mafia going for the towncred; or Arta being town on which mafia are trying to put the blame. Figuring this out in this case will be crucial. If the team passes the mission, then passes the next with SL / rayn / Xata / Arta, there are all town and the game is won. That would be cool. (= If the team fails: There is one confirmed mafia in Xata / rayn / SL, maybe 2. There has to be at least 2 mafias in Xata / rayn / SL / HTS / Arta, probably 3 since, as said above, the towncred lost by voting a failure team is more than compensated by the 1 win out of 3 needed. That doesn't apply if one scum thought the team would pass even if he voted "no" though. That's where I'm at. Not going further until tomorrow. Suggests genuine excitement with an attempt to solve things. On November 12 2015 02:43 Rels wrote: I'm too lazy to do any reread right now since we could also have won already p: Heh I was thinking the same thing. Other random tidbits -Frequently changes his reads at different points of the game, which suggests he is considering new information, rather than sticking to tunnels -Picks a battle with rayn early on who is widely viewed as town. Has the opportunity to tunnel rayn, yet considers the alternative at most spots. -Posts are mostly logical without baseless assumptions He does buddy me a ton this game, but I sure am a sucker for buddying. XD Eliminated Combinations: ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Vivax sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Based on this assumption, it would mean that Vivax is mafia. I'll need to re-read the thread tomorrow from that perspective to make sure I haven't slipped up anywhere and to see if it leads to any other relationships. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 12 2015 19:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Also also I really don't want Kita on any teams after the 'narrowing down' thing he did included both confirming himself as town with no reasoning as well as confirming rels as town for things he can easily do as scum. Wait, so you expect me to consider the scenarios where I could be mafia? How does that help me figure things out in the slightest? Are you considering the scum team to be Artanis/X/Y? Of course not. And of all the things that I have said this game, THAT is the reason you don't want me on any teams? You explain that Vivax is more likely town than me because of the relationship with Xata, yet never once bring up the topic of myself and Xata. In what way does that make sense? | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 12 2015 21:28 sicklucker wrote: like im so mad at myself for not remember day 1 votes and being sucked into this false world. will you ever forgive me On November 09 2015 05:24 sicklucker wrote: your scum so idk why im talking to you anyway its so obvious this game.. Four days ago I pointed out the day one voters and this was your response. Why is it relevant now, but not before? | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 00:44 sicklucker wrote: kita like what are you doing in this game seriously. Your not even trying to be town or do any townie thing. you did a useless excercise to give you combinations you could have winged on your own lol stop it. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 00:49 ShoCkeyy wrote: I just don't like the voting patterns. I'm basing my team off voting patterns and obv mission flips. Why do the voting patterns lead you to include Artanis? | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 12 2015 21:31 Rels wrote: Yeah that's what I think too. But I can't forget that HTS "thought" Artanis had to pick a team before we knew if the Xatalos' team succeeded; and instead of being like "FUCK IT WE RE WAITING" like everybody else, she was like "OH MAYBE WE SHOULD SEND THE SAME TEAM + 1 BEFORE KNOWING THE TEAM 1 RESULT". Going back to this, if HTS is scum then it means she knows the team is going to fail. Does it really make sense for her to jump the gun and suggest the team that is about to fail? It's not like she is going to secretly trick us all into accepting the team before the fail is revealed. The only argument here is that she wanted it to look as if she didn't know the mission result already. However, I'd say it suggests that maybe she got a bit too excited there thinking the game might be won if the team had passed and wanted to come up with a plan for the next mission a bit too soon. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 01:00 ShoCkeyy wrote: ##Nominate ShoCkeyy, Vivax, HtS, Sicklucker oops. I strongly disagree that Vivax is town. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 00:47 Half the Sky wrote: And then I want to shoot myself after! TSA!!! SHE'S GOT A GUN. TAKE HER OUT. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 01:03 kitaman27 wrote: I strongly disagree that Vivax is town. Would you consider Rels or myself to replace Vivax? We have matching voting records so what separates us here in your mind? | ||
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On November 13 2015 00:38 Half the Sky wrote: I'm on mobile - Kita if you are town, please reference Rels' SOTW 2 and Drams mafia filters so you don't get fooled here? He's good at LOOKING town when he ISN'T town. Ok. Is there anything specific that I should be looking at that relates to this game? To quote Xatalos, your explanation is a bit vague. | ||
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On November 13 2015 01:23 Rels wrote: No it's not the same thing. In that particular instance: you proposed to send mission 2 before knowing the result of mission 1. Mission 1 failed. So it's possible you wanted the same infiltrated team to be sent two times before we could realize it. lol we'd have to be pretty slow to fall for that wouldn't we? There is a full 48 hour period between the two. You're saying that her plan was to hope nobody noticed the team failed or.....? | ||
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On November 13 2015 01:28 kitaman27 wrote: lol we'd have to be pretty slow to fall for that wouldn't we? There is a full 48 hour period between the two. You're saying that her plan was to hope nobody noticed the team failed or.....? This has to be the most sketchy thing you've said all game Rels. | ||
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On November 13 2015 01:32 Rels wrote: Do you realize this quote comes from a time where she thought the nomination of the next team would happen before the result of the first team ? But I agree it doesn't make sense actually since the voting still would have taken place after the result. It still wouldn't matter because of the results before the vote, but yeah I guess you acknowledged that. | ||
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On November 13 2015 01:53 sicklucker wrote: are you guys talking about how hts knew the second mission would fail? everyone fucking knew that including me. LOOK AT THE VOTES IT WAS 7-2 . If its 7-2 all scum voted and its gonna pass. I also was working under the pretense that it was gonna fail not becuase im scum but it was fucking mathmaticly obvious No it was mission 1. | ||
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On November 13 2015 06:39 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I thought you were trying to narrow it down for the entire thread rather than just yourself. If you don't provide any argumentation for why you're town, that doesn't really help. It's not up to me to make an argument for why I'm town. That's for other people to decide. I can respond to points that people raise, but I'm not going to make a "why I'm town" post out of the blue. On November 13 2015 06:39 Artanis[Xp] wrote: As for my read on you: I do feel you've fallen off a bit in recent times. I liked you in the start but a combination of renewed insight on HtS/Shockeyy which were two scumreads that I now townread as well as your more recent posts have led me to change my opinion on you. Specifics please. On November 13 2015 06:39 Artanis[Xp] wrote: As for your relationship to Xata: It's very plausible since you've pushed both Xata and SL at different points in the game, and you never had the awkward start that the Xata/Superbia slot had with one another. I just don't think there's any benefit to two scum interacting with each other in that way. Could you explain what you mean when you say you "don't think there's any benefit to two scum interacting with each other in that way". Sure, they had their back and forth, but they ended it on good terms afterwards. Xata was suggesting super for the day one team. Super never concluded scum on xata. I can bring up the quotes that suggest this if need be. Yet on day one, I'm putting together a case about why HTS should not include Xata in her group and Xata straight up laughs several times my name is brought up, having me as his primary scum read the entire game. We're actually scum reading each other, while xata/super are fine with each other for the most part. Why is there "no benefit" between the super/xata interaction, yet it is completely reasonable for the kita/xata interaction to be spy beneficial? | ||
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On November 13 2015 06:16 Half the Sky wrote: sicklucker and Kita have been at it at each other nearly all game. Why do you think (or am I misreading) they are double bussing? Are you sure those interactions are scum on scum? How do you know that Kita isn't doing the same thing to sicklucker that you claim he's (analogously) doing to you? I think this is more than enough evidence that he hasn't looked at me in the slightest. If he honestly isn't familiar with my interaction with SL, yet concludes that SL and myself are buddies together, how can anyone possibly think that his read is legitimate? He attacks me for the "meh I don't care" post an hour into the game and he attacks me for the "spammy" list thing I did last night, but completely ignores any analysis relevant to the events of the game. | ||
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On November 13 2015 07:19 Half the Sky wrote: Kita Vivax has said he's not have had the time to play this game. He is probably going to have bad and/or suboptimal reads regardless of alignment. Why are you suggesting (if you are?) this could be mafia motivated? On November 13 2015 03:31 Vivax wrote: I need more time for this game :> , but my SL read will probably stay as it is, so will the kita read. He has already stated that more time probably won't change his reads. Vivax decided that he needed to push me as his spy read from the moment he entered the game. In his first post, he states that I should be excluded because of "paranoia". He says he is not sure about me, but if the mission failed, he would take a closer look at me. The mission did fail and he states that his read on me will stay as is. Well considering his initial read was "I don't know", his read becoming mafia is not "staying as it is". There are two possibilities here: 1) He did indeed read my filter leading to my conclusion that I'm mafia 2) He did not read my filter, yet I go from a "I don't know" read to his scum read anyways Considering he is clearly not familiar with my interaction with SL, then option one wouldn't be true. That's why I think it is option two. He doesn't take a real look at my filter, yet decides that I'm mafia. He brings up a list of generic talking points like "lack of interest", "setup talk", "hes good at scum", "your posts are spammy not helpful", but never bothers to confirm that what he is suggesting actually makes sense. If Vivax concludes that the mafia team is kita + SL and states that his opinion is unlikely to change, don't you think that a town Vivax would actually read my filter first? | ||
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On November 13 2015 07:39 Vivax wrote: Kita we need to talk, can you give me a summary entirely without quoting anything about why you think Rels is town? Okey dokey. I'm about to leave work (I've already stayed an hour late as it is). I won't have much free time this evening, but I'll do my best to get a post in. | ||
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On November 13 2015 07:47 kitaman27 wrote: Okey dokey. I'm about to leave work (I've already stayed an hour late as it is). I won't have much free time this evening, but I'll do my best to get a post in. Read my filter in the meantime if you can. It will take 15 minutes max I bet. You're bringing up stuff that happened an hour into the game several times, while ignoring the remaining 250 hours. It's tough to discuss things if you are completely in the dark. | ||
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On November 13 2015 07:39 Vivax wrote: Kita we need to talk, can you give me a summary entirely without quoting anything about why you think Rels is town? He appears to be reading the thread, he is speaking logically, he is looking for contradictions and pushing them in the thread when he is ignored. Most of the stuff he has been saying makes sense. He has the opportunity to jump on shockeyy as the low hanging fruit, but chooses not to. In resistance, mafia are essentially forced to choose their scum reads based on process of elimination. Not going after someone like shockeyy when everyone else scum reads him seems townie. He has the opportunity to align himself against Xata, but posts the filter length analysis that makes Xata look pretty decent. If I remember correctly, this was posted prior to the mission one failure meaning that he was making a player who is up for consideration look decent, while lessening his own chance of inclusion. This doesn't apply if it is Xata + Rels as the spy, but I thought the other stuff outweighed the exception. He attacks rayn at several spots where rayn is widely seen as town, costing himself town cred. The safer option would be to sheep him there. His reads are frequently changing. He starts the game scum reading myself, rayn, and super. He then shifts to town reading us, while scum reading other players. He goes back and forth on certain players, which I feel is townie. I haven't had the opportunity to look at the games HTS linked me yet. I will when I have more time. Could I be wrong about Rels? Yeah, but that could apply to anyone. Right now I think he's town. | ||
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On November 13 2015 08:47 sicklucker wrote: Anyway since hts thinks I somewhat have to justify myself being an obviuos town its my filter. If you ever want to tell the different between me town game and my mafia game just look at my filter. I have never had this big of a filter as mafia in like my 12 mafia games on tl... 22 pages as scum in Battle of the Drams 24 pages as scum in TL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy 19 pages as scum in Void meh filter length is null here | ||
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On November 13 2015 07:52 Vivax wrote: you lack one thing so far even after team 2 failed and it's you pushing your favourite team like a lot of people are doing. You are good at talking about things and around things but I don't really see you pushing anything concrete as your own preference when you should actually know that you can be more influent than what you are pulling off with all these summaries, setup talk, iterations and occasional questions about people you mildly townread (Rels). That's not true though. I posted that shockeyy should not include you in his nomination. I questioned shockeyy's logic for Artanis's inclusion because his voting record isn't any better than me or Rels and that was the reasoning he was providing. I posted a read on Rels with several examples of things that I felt looked townie. I shot down the faulty logic being used on HTS from Rels. I suggested Rels or myself as alternatives to you for nominations. There are plenty instances that show that I have a preference for the nominations. Kita/Rels/HTS/Rayn is my preferred team. I'm not going to convince shockeyy to exclude himself, which is why I went with myself/Rels in place of Vivax. It would obviously be a challenge to get this to passed, but "compromising" isn't really the priority right now. We have five days to pass a team so my focus is getting the team I think has the best chance of passing. I'm still not sure about the scum trio, but right now I'd say something like Vivax + Artanis + (SL/Xat) If I were to consider a compromise, it might be the inclusion of shockeyy, but I'm not sure enough that he is town in place of artanis. We have 4 more days so it's not like I have to accept the first team nominated yet. | ||
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On November 13 2015 09:08 Xatalos wrote: What was the team you wanted to make shockeyy...? At least I very much doubt there isn't scum in this team, with it including both SL/HTS.... The scumteam is probably SL/HTS/Rels at this point. SL even just for the first failed mission, HTS for just making really crappy reasons to scumread people (as noted by basically everyone who read her posts so far) and Rels for voting YES last team when he still scumread people on it.... I think shockeyy and kita just have to be town by PoE. So I think that's about it... Unfortunately Rels is next, but perhaps kita could be able to put up a decent team. HTS + Rels? Could you elaborate? | ||
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Hmm? | ||
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On November 13 2015 23:33 Half the Sky wrote: I was trying to look into Kitaman as well to be honest. Because the way it's looking right now, I might have been wrong here - Vivax is looking more town and Kita not so much. That last thing by rayn shows something potentially fabricated by Kita and even if I cannot stand the former's way of working with people, his nitpickiness does ferret out key things like this. You're really starting to become difficult to deal with, which is problematic considering that I want to town read you. Please lets not go through another Aperature | ||
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On November 13 2015 22:27 Half the Sky wrote: These are actually really good posts. (#2714/2715) Why? They aren't even true statements. He says I'm providing scum reads instead of town reads. Well first off, I'm directly stated that I think rayn and Rels are town and you can easily infer that I want myself nominated so there is no way to interpret that otherwise. When shockeyy was around, I directly addressed him three different times (requesting the removal of Vivax, questioning the inclusion of Artanis, and suggesting alternatives to form my prefered team). I've expressed multiple times my read on Rels. Secondly, of course I'm looking for scum reads. How is this possibly a bad thing? You can't have one without the other at this point. | ||
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On November 13 2015 16:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Wait, I answered all your questions, you apparently didn't have any more yet now I'm basically confirmed scum to you? Explain yourself.
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On November 14 2015 01:03 JudgeJudy wrote: Rels, I'm trying to follow your read between SL and Xata. On post number #2147, you state that my analysis on SL is good, inferring that you still have a mafia read on him. However, you list rayn and xata as the individuals on your "do not pick" list. Now you seem to be back on the antagonize SL side of things based on your "BUSTED" post. Could you explain your thought process a bit more? Gotta get in my daily mis-post. | ||
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On November 14 2015 01:03 Vivax wrote: While thinking to myself that kita is probably 100 % scum for the 100th time, I also realized that SL went super aggressive on me with his shitty push about me voting yes to the team, but he didn't bitch about kita doing the same thing while scumreading my slot, yet they both keep bringing up how they can't be in a team together. GET DUNKED I've responded to you about Rels like you asked and posted about Artanis. What do you have to say about those? Also, based on this post does that confirm that you've read my filter regarding my interaction with SL and still hold the conclusion that we are buddies? | ||
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On November 13 2015 16:57 Artanis[Xp] wrote: There really are too many scum players this game. On November 13 2015 19:20 ShoCkeyy wrote: ^ So your nomination term finally comes up, you forget about the deadline, and then when you return you can't even be bothered to post the team you intended to nomination....? | ||
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On November 13 2015 14:59 Coagulation wrote: your just assuming a whole bunch of stupid bullshit for no reason. Im here reading the game and Im perfectly capable of playing /hosting resistance and our making decisions without a fucking coin flip. So do you've got anything for us yet? | ||
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On November 14 2015 01:17 Vivax wrote: I didn't read your interaction much yet, but I noticed the lack of interaction between you and him when you voted yes on a team I was on, yet he should have been much more worked up about you instead of me if you were having a beef with each other earlier in the game already. Well when do you plan to? It would take probably five minutes to do a control + F for whenever I mention his name and then come back to the thread with a conclusion. Considering that is the scum team that you seem to be set in stone with, then it really should be a priority over anything else. | ||
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On November 14 2015 01:14 Vivax wrote: You call himself aligning against Xata an "opportunity". Why? What would be the benefit in that situation? On November 14 2015 01:14 Vivax wrote: took away his chances of pushing suspicion on him in case of mission fail. Don't you answer your own question in your response? Yet instead you're taunting me with stuff like "you can do better than this"? | ||
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On November 14 2015 01:20 kitaman27 wrote: Well when do you plan to? It would take probably five minutes to do a control + F for whenever I mention his name and then come back to the thread with a conclusion. Considering that is the scum team that you seem to be set in stone with, then it really should be a priority over anything else. ^ Dodged. You don't need to talk to me about this even. Talk with your town reads why this is viable (you can't). | ||
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On November 13 2015 06:20 Vivax wrote: As for SL and kita I'll have to check when they started scumreading each other, who started with it etc. I'll look at filters later. On November 14 2015 01:03 Vivax wrote: While thinking to myself that kita is probably 100 % scum for the 100th time, I also realized that SL went super aggressive on me with his shitty push about me voting yes to the team, but he didn't bitch about kita doing the same thing while scumreading my slot, yet they both keep bringing up how they can't be in a team together. GET DUNKED On November 14 2015 01:29 Vivax wrote: I don't think I'll be pursuing further conversation with you, kita. I'm dead set on you being mafia HTS, this is the guy that you are saying is willing to re-evaluate? He literally concluded that I'm mafia without reading my filter. I honestly don't know what to say at this point. | ||
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On November 14 2015 04:47 Half the Sky wrote: He was re-evaluating both you and sicklucker in any case. Why do you say this though? By throwing a few questions my way about town reads? When I respond to him with a second explanation of my town read on Rels he responds with the random "DUNKED" comment. This isn't interacting with me. It takes me asking him to comment on Rels for him to respond. I also ask for him to comment about artanis and he gives a one liner without explanation that he is town. I ask him to explain the kita + SL read further by reading my filter and he states that he won't be discussing things with me further because I'm scum. He is not re-evaluating me. He claims that he has read the first six pages of my filter. He later states that he hasn't had a chance to look at my interaction with SL yet. How is this possible? Pages four through six of my filter are essentially ALL INTERACTIONS with sicklucker. Here are a bunch of posts that he would have had to read. On November 05 2015 09:22 kitaman27 wrote: Who are the bad guys SL? On November 05 2015 09:45 kitaman27 wrote: You called xata scum though at that point. So it wasn't an all town team from your perspective. Yet you scum read him for wanting to reject it anyways. On November 05 2015 23:17 kitaman27 wrote: So these were the posts that came within 6 minutes of each other. Super said the team would get rejected with SL, but Artanis would have gotten votes instead. Now how could you think the team was SL/rayn/artanis if super is stating that artanis should have been included in the same exact post that you respond that he is scum? On November 06 2015 01:49 kitaman27 wrote: So rayn, I'm trying to understand your read on SL. Your two main points initially were 1) That he would bus as a spy. + Show Spoiler + On November 03 2015 21:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: SL would bus (lol). Basically as scum you want to look as town as possible and bussing is definitely not out of question, since you only need one scum onto a mission. If you, from the beginning, cut your own chances of getting to missions as scum, you basically just lose the game. And i still think SL would just bus. On November 04 2015 13:08 sicklucker wrote: unless someone can come up with evidence that shockey knew votes would be revealed he should never ever ever be on a mission One of the first things he does was explain that your strongest mafia read shockeyy should never ever be on a mission. 2) That he doesn't have a scum agenda. + Show Spoiler + On November 03 2015 19:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: It basically has to do with me not seeing him playing towards anything.. ugh... idk it is hard to explain, i don't see him having scum agenda, or anything like that behind his posting. Same basically goes to sicklucker. On November 05 2015 09:10 sicklucker wrote: like me not voting for ANY TEAM that does not include me On November 05 2015 09:46 sicklucker wrote: like i would never put up a team that didnt include me On November 04 2015 19:44 sicklucker wrote: gonna veto any xatalos unless its like me and rayn On November 05 2015 08:09 sicklucker wrote: super likely mafia. Im positive he has no reason to scum read me On November 05 2015 09:11 sicklucker wrote: im in hero pick phrase. im cooler with xata now. Essentially his strategy this game is to veto any team that doesn't include himself, attack the players that suspect him, unless his mafia read actually nominates him, then he is fine with passing the team. Why isn't this a mafia agenda? The explanation that scummy people think SL is spy, therefore he is town doesn't mean a lot considering in the first quote you say how busing isn't out of the question because you only need one spy. Doesn't the reasoning you gave point to the opposite conclusion? On November 06 2015 03:42 kitaman27 wrote: Well it's the strategy I used as spy in Resistance 2. Not saying it's a good strategy or anything, but it was exactly the policy I pushed myself. On November 07 2015 08:22 kitaman27 wrote: I'll try to make it as simple as possible: 1) Superbia says that the team will get rejected because artanis should have been chosen instead of SL 2) You call Superbia for wanting to reject the all town team 3) The all town team that you claim to have been referring to was SL/rayn/artanis, rather than SL/rayn/xat How could 3 be true if he is clearly stating that he wanted artanis instead of SL? On November 07 2015 10:37 kitaman27 wrote: The reason you say you are suspicious of super isn't possible though. You called him scum because you say you thought he wanted to reject SL/rayn/artanis. You can't think he was referring to a SL/rayn/artanis team because he said he wanted Artanis instead of SL in the post you called him scum for. How can he want artanis in place of SL if they are both in the team you think he is referring to? Does anyone else get what I'm saying or am I talking to a wall? On November 07 2015 12:30 kitaman27 wrote: These statements contradict each other. On November 09 2015 03:02 kitaman27 wrote: Two out of your three scum reads voted no, didn't they? Or am I wrong about your reads listed above? On November 09 2015 04:37 kitaman27 wrote: So everyone else would be some combination of myself/super/artanis/xat? Yet you would pass this team? The reason I keep asking you about your reads is because you contradict yourself every other post. So did he miss all of these during his "re-evaluation"? | ||
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On November 14 2015 00:40 kitaman27 wrote:
On November 14 2015 00:53 kitaman27 wrote: HTS, could you please summarize your thoughts on Rels similar to what I have done above. It's too difficult to wade through every back and forth post between you two. If you are actually town, either you need to convince me that Rels is mafia or I need to convince you that Rels is town for this game to be resolved. Could you respond to these two posts HTS when you are available, rather than immediately dismissing me with a facepalm one liner. Also grats on 6000. -_- | ||
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On November 14 2015 07:14 Half the Sky wrote: And Kita that last sentence was not meant as an insult or a passive aggressive comment, I did not intend that to come off that way. It's that I really enjoy playing games with you as town, and I'm bummed you probably aren't here. Good. Nobody gets away with insulting me but myself! | ||
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We chose to pass it, so there had to be some secret communication to avoid essentially loosing the game automatically, yet there was only one sabotage. It's very rare for a scum team to upvote a double spy mission because of this reason. | ||
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On November 15 2015 01:35 Half the Sky wrote: No coordination is needed. If I recall correctly, it was also discussed prior to the game that the spy at/closer to the top of the list would be the one to pull it off. It was hashed out by Artanis and rayn. Posts #67 and #69 of the thread. I was under the impression that the host decided the rules, not some random comment from rayn. | ||
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On November 15 2015 02:09 Half the Sky wrote: Coagulation said the same thing I did. Are you trolling me now Kita? You're so far gone that anything I say is going to be ignored or come out as scummy. Whatever. | ||
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On November 15 2015 04:08 Rels wrote: Vivax is not here and this is the last time I'm here before getting insanely drunk so let's go with that. No SL though. ##Nominate Artanis/Vivax/HTS/Shockey Hmm, so now you're saying me or rayn failed the second mission? o.O | ||
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On November 15 2015 04:08 Rels wrote: Vivax is not here and this is the last time I'm here before getting insanely drunk so let's go with that. No SL though. ##Nominate Artanis/Vivax/HTS/Shockey This goes so far against Rel's reads all game long that it seems like he wants a re-do on the previous team or something. | ||
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On November 16 2015 00:56 Rels wrote: This is good. For HTS / Arta to make sense, rayn have to be scum, but I couldn't see why a mafia would get modkilled. This could be why. Ehh as much as I'd like this to be true, I'm still not convinced that rayn + HTS makes sense. Like he attacks her and other people up to the point where she feels like she has to make a post-game post about how toixc he is, only for them to show up at endgame and be like "lol jk we're best buds!". I'll re-read everything to see if it could make sense if one of them were mafia individually. | ||
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On November 16 2015 01:54 Rels wrote: I agree. But it just makes sense given the votes and team results. If HTS is not scum then what ? rayn / Arta / SL ? rayn / Arta / Xata ? Cause Vivax has to be town here. So each time, two scums in the first team. That makes much less sense than rayn / HTS faking being angry at each other + rayn being angry 'cause his fake reads were proven false. Well at least with rayn/Arta/Xata you have the weird Xata: Hey it's my time to nominate. You wanna be on the team Arta? Arta: Naw it's all good bro. and Arta: I'm up and you're my strongest town read rayn. Mission time? rayn: lulz lets nominate Rels instead for "information" Arta: Sure thing! and rayn: My turn! So now I can bring Arta along for realz. rayn: Actually, I'll just nominate whoever kita says instead | ||
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On November 16 2015 00:35 Rels wrote: Yep. Vivax could have won the game right there and didn't. He was here at deadline, when apparently it was super clear multiple people pushed for the YES. If he's scum, he let a chance to win right there fly by him. I will consider him confirmed town unless something drastic happens. So yeah, either rayn or you is scum. Probably rayn. Just to be clear, do you still feel this was true or was it something you were pushing to "trap" HTS? | ||
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On November 16 2015 02:10 Rels wrote: No I think it's true. If Vivax is scum, he potentially lost the game yesterday. "Vivax is confirmed town because he had the chance to win the game and he voted no." "Kita could be scum because he had the chance to win the game and he voted no, but ....?" What am I missing here, especially considering you had a town read on me and a scum read on vivix prior to the voting results? | ||
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On November 16 2015 02:16 Rels wrote: Where do I say you could be scum ? I'm talking about vivax cause I was scumreading him, so realizing he has to be town changes is a change. No change on you "So yeah, either rayn or you is scum. " | ||
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On November 16 2015 02:17 kitaman27 wrote: "So yeah, either rayn or you is scum. " Since you say vivax is confirmed town, why couldn't he be a mafia player who was unsure whether the votes would pass and wanted to play it safe? | ||
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On November 16 2015 02:25 Rels wrote: Cause of this: Reading EOD it seemed that the team was going to be accepted. Do you disagree ? Well the real reason I'm asking is because Xata voted no, but you don't apply that reasoning to him, but I guess #3143 makes sense now that you explained it. | ||
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On November 16 2015 02:27 Rels wrote: If you think Vivax might be scum after this, you also think the team had a chance to not be accepted without Vivax' vote right ? And you also think his teammates probably voted YES ? No I agree that Vivax looks better after the vote. | ||
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On November 16 2015 02:08 Rels wrote: True. But what do you think of these ? I definitely agree that HTS has made her mind up on certain players alignments that could suggest she knows they are town. This could go back as far as the SL post (spoilered below) that showed almost zero doubt. It was such a strong read that I asked Artanis to comment on her read to see if he saw the same thing (he didn't find any problems at the time). I'd still like that summary on why she feels you are mafia if she is willing. The biggest problem I'd have is that rayn + HTS really seems unlikely because of the reasoning I mentioned. She even nominated him day one without any hesitation (it was super/xata/myself that she was going back and forth on). If it's not rayn + HTS then that means it would have to be HTS + SL/xata + vivax/rels...which becomes problematic based on the double NO vote on mission three from you two. | ||
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On November 16 2015 05:29 Vivax wrote: This game has largely come down to a HTS/Shockey/SL/Artanis camp vs the Kita/Rels/Xata/Coag(?) camp, according to voting and behaviour. The problem is that if only 1 scum is bussing, then sending 1 camp always fails the mission (if you pick the right one). I definitely wouldn't consider Xata in my "camp", even if he wants to buddy me. At the same time, I've already stated that I'd be willing to include a couple individuals from the first group. You asked me who I think failed the second mission and I'm not ignoring you, but I'm not really sure. Still trying to figure that part out. | ||
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On November 16 2015 05:38 sicklucker wrote: kita DO YOU HAVE ANY READS IN THIS GAME? Yeah? Town: Kita HTS Rels Shockeyy (?) SL (based on Xata being in the below group mostly.) Mafia: Artanis Xatalos I'm still trying to think through Vivax and rayn more. | ||
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On November 14 2015 05:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I said that the way he was pushing it, he seemed to be trying to bury Rels. That's how I read it. I read it as you trying to bury shockeyy. On November 14 2015 05:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I've explained this before. I thought all three players were likely town. If I was correct in that, I got to nominate myself the day after with the group and win the game. I took a risk in presuming all three were town and it didn't pay off, but the logic is certainly there. You're simply framing it in a mafia mindset when the townie mindset is obvious. That's such an unnecessary risk though. You could have insisted on being in the group of three, if it passes then you find a forth to bring along. If it fails, then you have a mafia within a pool of two players. By excluding yourself, you double the chance that the first mission fails and have a larger pool to analyze. Furthermore, even if you liked that group of three, the obvious town response is to fail and then send it through again once you have the vote information. On November 14 2015 05:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote: The chart was a single moment in time. Sicklucker had been open and aggressive. I think Xata is scum, but if he includes me then I'll pass the mission is not an "open" mindset like you explain. You never questioned SL's weird swap and are way too content to have him included over yourself. On November 14 2015 05:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I didn't have time on Day 1. Monday through Wednesday are very busy days for me. I can keep repeating that if you want. Furthermore, no team that I wanted that I could suggest would go through. By sending a mission that would not pass through, there'd be more days to gather information and I'd have more time to actually get more accurate reads as well as make myself townread and get on a mission I favour. If information is the goal here and you want more time, then why didn't that reasoning apply to mission 1 like I say? On November 14 2015 05:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote: So now I'm being scumread for voting no on a mission with scum on it. Yeah, I'm pretty sure you came into this analysis with a made up mind already. I'm sorry that I didn't have the time to push hard on not wanting the mission to go through. That doesn't actually make me scum. Strawman. I'm not saying that you are being scumread for voting no, I'm saying that you are being scum read for not wanting a team to go through, yet doing nothing about it. Even if you don't have the time to push hard, it only takes 30 seconds to share you objection. You take the credit for the voting record yet are content with it going through. On November 14 2015 05:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Outcome does not matter, it's the mindset going into it that matters. I really don't believe any scum player, especially Superbia would come up with the idea of "let's attack Xatalos for some awkward wording he made and keep hammering on about it for no reason, I'm sure that's going to get me so much towncred!" I really don't. Scumreading eachother is also not as big a deal in Resistance as it is in real mafia, since it only matters to get on a mission yourself. Well I'm not arguing that Xata/Super are buddies, so again you are misrepresenting my argument. I'm saying the way you apply their interaction to somehow conclude that I'm mafia is the scummy part. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 16 2015 05:53 Vivax wrote: Same here, why should Artanis in your opinion vote yes to Shockey's team who in your scenario is all town anyway? If I'm mafia why should I vote no? What's there to think about? Well arta town reads each of the nominated players so voting no and then being on the wrong side of a passed mission could lose the game. Similarly, he would have a lot of explaining to do if the mission failed. As for you, if you weren't positive there were enough votes to pass, then you could wifom yourself with the "if I'm scum I could have won last night" argument. That being said, I think you had a valid reason to justify a yes vote so I'm willing to consider that you could be town, which would require rethinking rayn or rels. | ||
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On November 16 2015 10:19 Vivax wrote: Kita and Xata have become lazy and complacent in the war of attrition. Makes me more confident. Coag...Whatevs, he might post a townie seal at some point and maybe vote. Studying at 2 AM, living the dream... lol stop that. It's day 16. You can't possibly expect me to play four hours a day for three weeks straight. Don't call me lazy though. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 16 2015 09:58 sicklucker wrote: so I can submit the same team and me and vivax can vote yes and end this game one way or the other. Or I can submit a more safer team but not garantee mission five and we can all yell at each other some more. pretty much up to you vivax. I kindo f want to replace art with coag but hes not even playing or voting so we cant really do that altho art should still vote yes to that unless he wants to claim scum Definitely not art. I'd say probably no to coag at this point too. Just stick with the team that is more likely to pass. Of course I'd still prefer myself being included if you're willing to be reasonable XD | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 16 2015 10:33 Vivax wrote: I expect you to contribute to solving the game but I didn't see that drive much. Imagine all the nice things you could have done as town. It always pains me when good players roll scum, especially cause then I tend to be a dick towards them. Anyway, enough feels talk for the time being. Since Artanis is the guy you weren't sure on, would you YES vote the same team Shockey sent? I've contributed just as much as anyone else has this game. I'd consider the Shockeyy team. On November 14 2015 01:29 Vivax wrote: Btw I hardly see people considering putting Arta on a team, which I really don't get. So I take it you disagree with the points that I brought up? You think a mafia Artanis whose three scum reads were all excluded from the team would risk a no vote? Also, what do you think about Rels now? You shot down my initially town read, but has that changed? If not, could you summarize why Rels is mafia? I've been asking HTS to do that for about five days now, but she refuses or something. | ||
kitaman27
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On November 16 2015 11:21 Vivax wrote: Idk Artanis seemed town to me but whoever it was who said that his post today was probably overexplained did have a point. I think it was Rels. Could you provide some specifics for what I'm missing then? On November 16 2015 11:21 Vivax wrote: You mentioned at some point that 2 sabotages were always possible I think, if two spies on a mission did it at once even if it wasn't required until mission 4. Do you still believe/know that? Point being, does it become public if you send 2 spies on a mission and they both choose to sabot, even before mission 4? My assumption is yes, though I don't know that as a fact. After the first two mission failed we got a "1 Sabotage action detected." message. I'd think that message would be meaningless if 2 Sabotage actions wasn't possible. | ||
kitaman27
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kitaman27
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Xatalos: SL clear scum Would reject Rels team HTS has to be scum SL/HTS 95% scum, unsure of third. Artanis/Rels? Team is either SL/HTS/Rels or SL/HTS/Vivax Questions if SL/HTS might actually be town SL/HTS/Rels as guess coag + 2 of HTS/Artanis/shockeyy as secondary guess Only mafia team that makes sense is SL/HTS/Rels HTS looks bad because of yes votes on failing teams Prefers nominated team of xata/vivax/kita + shockey/artanis kita looks town because of voting record HTS is stretching things Team is dirty with HTS. If HTS town, then one of Arta/shockeyy scum Team is SL/HTS/Rels TWo scum in SL team likely Artanis: Shockey, Vivax, Half the Sky, sicklucker was a clean team Will auto-reject Rels team and upvote SL team yay voting any team without xata/rels/kita Vivax town because of vote SL town because of try hard rayn definitely town vivax's arguement on rayn might make him reconsider rayn is still town kita is clearly mafia because of reads on him and Vivax Rels is mafia because he is a hypocrit SL is town for tryharding Xata is scum because of hts arguement Scum is rels/kita/xata + maybe rayn Will pass any team outside of Kita/Xata/Rels SL: Town reads on the team, questioning including Vivax Scum team likely xata/rels/kits + maybe Vivax Art likely town, but maybe spy with HTS Unsure on coag, struggling to pick 5th between art and coag Vivax town likely because of vote Vivax + Shockeyy confirmed town HTS likely town artanis a bit sketchy because of votes and reads trusts hts/art more than coag We should no vote rels team for more info on Artanis HTS unlikely scum kita/rels/xata scum because of scum read on SL Suggests nominated team of vivax/hts/coag/shockey mafia team is xata/rels/art or xata/rels/kita arta could have voted yes for mission 5 inclusion nominates Sicklucker shockeyy half the sky vivax Vivax: kita/coag/Rels/Xata likely to be spies Unsure on coag Mafia is kita + xata + coag/rels Xatalos is town rayn could be mafia team is rayn + hts + arta (shockeyy?) Team should be SL/viviax/?/? Wants people to talk about Rels/HTS Artanis likely town because of yes vote to shockeyy mission xata/rels/art is not a valid team because of arta vote recommends coag submits vivax/sl/shockeyy/hts for more info on arta kita/xata scummy because of activity arta seems town, though not completely sure Unsure on rels HTS: The scum team is xata/Rels/Kita xata and kita are scum because they are associated with scum rels rayn is certainly town Perfers nominated team of Artanis/Vivax/sicklucker/Shockey followed by Artanis/Vivax/sicklucker/Shockey/Coagulation Feels the rels team is clean Kita guilty of framing arta Rels is misrepreseting facts rayn is town Kita is mafia based on Personality mafia Team is xata/kita/rels The rels team is clean Will pass any team outside of Kita/Xata/Rels Rels: Nominates Artanis/Vivax/HTS/Shockey Vivax town because of no vote kita or rayn is scum, probably rayn HTS is clearly scum based on her reaction to nominations Team could be Arta + HTS rayn would be scum too with Arta + HTS Arta scummy because of overexplination HTS definitely mafia Kita is town based on Personality mafia rayn/hts faking anger Vivax has to be town Will pass SL team despite HTS inclusion Kita: Rel's set of nominations is really scummy Team could be rayn/Arta/xata due to reluctance of including each other during nominations Vivax looks better after vote rayn + HTS does not seem like a team due to interaction If HTS is scum, then team must be HTS + SL/xata + vivax/rels, which seems unlikely based on double no from vivax/rels Would reject xata team, willing to pass hts/shockeyy/sl town on hts,rels,shockeyy,sl mafia arta + xat 1 mafia in vivax + rayn argues that arta is scum based on strawman response arta voted yes because he was forced to based on reads rels read on HTS is scummy Would reject rels nominated team, would consider SL team Coag: Will reject Rels nomination shockeyy: voting yes because no coag pancakes | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
rayn/xata/artanis rayn/xata/rels rels/xata/artanis If HTS + Shockeyy + SL + Vivax fails then obviously I'd prefer myself as the fifth, but I'm willing to acknowledge that might not be possible to get five people to agree to. I'm going to go through rayn next probably. | ||
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United States9244 Posts
ShoCkeyy - Can't because of double fail unless rayn is third Artanis[Xp] - Can't because of double fail unless rayn is third Rels - Would have voted yes to HTS team Vivax - Would have voted yes to HTS team If none of the four above are with HTS then sicklucker - HTS+SL+X doesn't make sense Xata - Would have voted yes to HTS team (???) | ||
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United States9244 Posts
On November 17 2015 07:14 Vivax wrote: Oh and one more thing: It isn't explicitly stated in the rules that two sabotages from spies show up when they both choose to fail the mission, when it's required on mission 4. But when it isn't required and 2 spies on a wagon pick FAIL, then do we also see 2 sabotages outside of mission 4? I'll assume yes for now. And that means that any combination with 2 spies on a mission is impossible in this game. A few others have brought up that when 2 spies are on the mission, the first spy on the player list sabotages and the second passes to avoid an issue like this. I'm not sure how familiar people are with this though. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 17 2015 07:09 Vivax wrote: It's about HTS. If this is true she's excluding herself from these teams every time. Which would make sense if a spy is already on the team. But what would fit for an HTS team though? | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 17 2015 06:39 kitaman27 wrote: rayn/xata/artanis rayn/xata/rels rels/xata/artanis If rayn + xata are indeed mafia, then that would mean that xata nominated his buddy for the failed mission 1. It seems really suboptimal to bring along a buddy with your yourself when it is about to fail because that means two out of three players are going to be held in high suspicion for the remaining four missions. I guess rayn + rels + artanis could also be a possibility. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 17 2015 07:03 Vivax wrote: Need a better nomination within the hour. What was the better nomination you were you referring to here? | ||
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On November 18 2015 04:00 sicklucker wrote: Im more worried about artanis because he has no nice vote logic like this to suggest hes town but he gets on because theres so many baddies so w/e Why am I more likely a "baddie" than artanis? | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 18 2015 06:08 sicklucker wrote: like kita you just did nothing. I dont think I ever played with you before but if this is your town game why even play. put yourself in my shoes. the only thing you added to the entire game was say im scum That's simply not true. I've had plenty of reads this game. On November 03 2015 04:50 kitaman27 wrote: I don't think I'm comfortable with Xatalos just yet. On November 04 2015 04:28 kitaman27 wrote: Half the Sky - Leaning town. raynpelikoneet - Leaning town. Xatalos - Leaning mafia Superbia - Weakly leaning town sicklucker - Null Artanis[Xp] - Going to hold off until we see a few more posts from him. I'm not very sure where his head is at. At some point someone mentioned that had a very strong read on him. If you could elaborate, that might be helpful. ShoCkeyy - I'm struggling between low thread presence mafia and "lynch bait" town. I'd say Shockeyy would be in my exclude list for the time being. Rels - Weak town On November 05 2015 00:09 kitaman27 wrote: A xat + sup duo seems a bit unlikely On November 05 2015 01:40 kitaman27 wrote: I wouldn't feel comfortable passing a team with you still. I think there are better alternatives than sicklucker, though I'm still kinda null on him so he wouldn't totally kill a team. rayn has also owed me a response for a while, so I'm waiting on that. On November 05 2015 01:40 kitaman27 wrote: Preferably I'd be looking at something like Kita/artanis/rayn, though I'm obviously aware that you wouldn't do something like that. Maybe one of HTS/Rels in place of myself if need be (?). On November 05 2015 03:23 kitaman27 wrote: Artanis I am feeling more comfortable with so I'd put him into leaning town for what it is worth. On November 05 2015 03:23 kitaman27 wrote: I'm less confident about the explanation towards SL at this point. On November 05 2015 03:23 kitaman27 wrote: Right now I find the things that Xatalos has done to point more likely to spy than not On November 06 2015 01:49 kitaman27 wrote: Why isn't this a mafia agenda? On November 07 2015 08:17 kitaman27 wrote: Both SL and Xata were in my bottom three, though them both being spies doesn't make a ton of sense. On November 07 2015 08:23 kitaman27 wrote: One idea that I'm toying with is a Xata + Artanis team. On November 08 2015 02:13 kitaman27 wrote: Yeah, I'm still leaning town on Rels by the way. On November 08 2015 02:15 kitaman27 wrote: Right now I'm thinking SL was the spy last mission, though I'm not completely town reading Xat. On November 09 2015 03:01 kitaman27 wrote: As for me I'd say that I'm leaning on SL being the scum from mission two, with Xata being the secondary suspect if SL is town. I'm still leaning mafia on Shockyy and the remaining mafia would be in a pool of HTS/super/Artanis. On November 09 2015 11:16 kitaman27 wrote: My reads were at the bottom if you missed it. Right now I'd prefer a team something like kita/rels/rayn + 1 of HTS/super/Artanis. I'm still not sure which of those three I'd bring along. On November 09 2015 23:35 kitaman27 wrote: Right now I'm at rayn/kita/rels/super On November 12 2015 04:17 kitaman27 wrote: Super voting no on the rayn/xata/SL team suggests they aren't buddies On November 12 2015 09:57 kitaman27 wrote: Assumption 4: ShoCkeyy and rayn aren't scum buddies together. On November 12 2015 10:01 kitaman27 wrote: Assumption 5: Half the Sky and rayn aren't scum buddies together. See above. On November 12 2015 10:14 kitaman27 wrote: Assumption 6: Ehh this is the biggest jump so far, but I'm going to put rayn down as town despite the two failures. If it comes back to bite me, then so be it. At least he won't get credit for the win with the modkill On November 12 2015 10:21 kitaman27 wrote: Assumption 7: Xatalos and sicklucker are not both spies. On November 12 2015 10:32 kitaman27 wrote: Assumption 8: HTS and Rels are not spies together. On November 12 2015 13:41 kitaman27 wrote: Assumption 9: Rels is town. On November 13 2015 01:03 kitaman27 wrote: I strongly disagree that Vivax is town. On November 13 2015 01:06 kitaman27 wrote: Would you consider Rels or myself to replace Vivax? We have matching voting records so what separates us here in your mind? On November 13 2015 01:30 kitaman27 wrote: This has to be the most sketchy thing you've said all game Rels. On November 13 2015 07:37 kitaman27 wrote: If Vivax concludes that the mafia team is kita + SL and states that his opinion is unlikely to change, don't you think that a town Vivax would actually read my filter first? On November 13 2015 09:03 kitaman27 wrote: Right now I think he's town. On November 13 2015 09:17 kitaman27 wrote: right now I'd say something like Vivax + Artanis + (SL/Xat) On November 16 2015 01:45 kitaman27 wrote: I'm still not convinced that rayn + HTS makes sense. On November 16 2015 02:04 kitaman27 wrote: Well at least with rayn/Arta/Xata you have the weird Xata: Hey it's my time to nominate. You wanna be on the team Arta? Arta: Naw it's all good bro. and Arta: I'm up and you're my strongest town read rayn. Mission time? rayn: lulz lets nominate Rels instead for "information" Arta: Sure thing! and rayn: My turn! So now I can bring Arta along for realz. rayn: Actually, I'll just nominate whoever kita says instead On November 16 2015 02:30 kitaman27 wrote: No I agree that Vivax looks better after the vote. On November 16 2015 05:38 kitaman27 wrote: I definitely wouldn't consider Xata in my "camp", even if he wants to buddy me.. On November 16 2015 05:43 kitaman27 wrote: Yeah? Town: Kita HTS Rels Shockeyy (?) SL (based on Xata being in the below group mostly.) Mafia: Artanis Xatalos I'm still trying to think through Vivax and rayn more. On November 16 2015 10:34 kitaman27 wrote: Definitely not art. I'd say probably no to coag at this point too. Just stick with the team that is more likely to pass. On November 17 2015 06:39 kitaman27 wrote: rayn/xata/artanis rayn/xata/rels rels/xata/artanis | ||
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On November 18 2015 07:20 sicklucker wrote: like kita when people ask for your reada you posted an elimination chart of combos of teams then and that was it Nope not true. On November 16 2015 05:43 kitaman27 wrote: Yeah? Town: Kita HTS Rels Shockeyy (?) SL (based on Xata being in the below group mostly.) Mafia: Artanis Xatalos I'm still trying to think through Vivax and rayn more. + Show Spoiler + On November 04 2015 04:28 kitaman27 wrote: Here are my reads so far. I'm sure they will change as time goes on. Admittedly there is a lot of wishy/washy or null reads. I'm still not completely sure about anyone really. Half the Sky - Leaning town. At the start of the game, I was concerned with the fact that she essentially posted exactly what I typically hear from scum players 6-12 hours into the game when I rarely choose to participate much. Since then, she has stayed pretty active and shows evidence of reading the thread. At certain points there was a pretty easy opportunity to My biggest concern would be that between her, myself, rayn, xatalos, and superbia was that she really did not seem to explain herself very well why she went from one to the other as nominations changed. At the end of the day, there were little suspicions towards anyone in the group of five, yet its pretty unlikely the entire group is town. raynpelikoneet - Leaning town. I'm willing to give him town points right off the bat for saving us from having to play with VE. In general he seems to be pushing forwards discussion and looking at player-player relationships to try to piece things together. The plan that he put forward with the scum nominations may be really poor, but a couple posts suggest that he actually believes in it. I hate the way he talks in absolutes regarding alignments of players that he certainly can't be so sure of. The conclusions come way too quick. However, I know he tends to do that a lot as town from past experience as well. Xatalos - Leaning mafia This is a flat out false statement to justify his town read on Superbia. Superbia was NOT constantly engaged with the thread. He was absent aside from the start of the game, a 1 hour period where he made several posts, and a return post where he promised future reads. How can a player be both engaged and disconnected from the game at the same time. I question the validity of the town read because he isn't aware of Superbia's absence when several other players start to question the drop off. Furthermore, he justifies the scum read on me by stating that I am ignoring discussion topics. That makes Xatalos's mindset look even worse when you compare it to his defense of Superbia. Superbia never even comments about the nomination aside from a 1-liner after the fact that he has never elaborated on. I shared my suspicions on both Superbia and Xatalos during the nomination phase and my satisfaction with both HTS and rayn as nominations. It seems like Xatalos generated his reads a few hours into the game and hasn't re-evaluated based on the events of the thread, which I view as a scum trait. Superbia - Weakly leaning town Superbia + Xatalos doesn't stand out as teammates and I think Xat looks worse between the two. That's probably the biggest reason that I have him slightly townier than NULL. If I re-evaluated my read on Xata, I'd probably need to do the same here. This post felt genuine. He had no input regarding nominations. I won't necessarily interpret this as spy motivated since he has essentially been absent from the thread, rather than lurking. I felt this post was exaggerated. He suggests that Xat is pushing a mafia agenda with the nightmare for scum post in order to catch town off guard. I simply don't think a mafia Xat is looking that far ahead. If anything, I'd say reason 1 makes more sense. Trying to interpret what a town Xat would enter the game as is a complete guessing game so I felt he was really stretching his read here. sicklucker - Null lol there is always at least one of these guys I'm really bad at reading low effort players. Usually it comes down to looking at their past games and seeing if the low effort trend occurs as only a single alignment (I haven't done this yet, but it is on my to-do list). We aren't really in a position to exclude him for the rest of the game so hopefully we get a few more reads. I guess the posts on Xata is a start. Artanis[Xp] - Going to hold off until we see a few more posts from him. I'm not very sure where his head is at. At some point someone mentioned that had a very strong read on him. If you could elaborate, that might be helpful. ShoCkeyy - I'm struggling between low thread presence mafia and "lynch bait" town. He doesn't seem comfortable giving out statements which he isn't confident about. This could either mean that truly isn't sure and wants more time until it is clear or that he doesn't want to make a statement that could backfire later on in the game. I didn't like the meta read he made on rayn by taking only the experience from the game he has played. There were a few other statements that seemed like they came from town. "I will rject this combination" etc. I took a look through some of his past games. There were a few similarities that popped up. All of these quotes come from games where he is mafia compared against posts from this game. I know this method of scum hunting can be a bit dangerous because you're cherry picking posts without context, but there were enough similarities between his play that it warrants concern. From his town games, I didn't really have success picking up many trends aside from generally low post counts, though he was willing to call players scum without having "proof" like he suggests in his most recent post. I'd say Shockeyy would be in my exclude list for the time being. Rels - Weak town He is changing his mind a lot, which suggests read progression. A lot of the posts that he is making wouldn't necessarily further his position to get included in a mission, which gives him town points. Getting into a fight with rayn early on in the game and digging up stuff on HTS when a lot of people town read her could create problems for him if he wanted to be trusted by the more vocal players. He brings a fair amount of new topics to the thread and seems to believe in most of the stuff he is posting. Something of interest is that our reads don't match up very well. Usually when town hunting you look for people that are thinking similar things. I need to decide whether one of us are off by a significant amount or if he is pushing a mafia agenda by swaying the thread in a certain direction. | ||
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
gg all thanks to hosts | ||
kitaman27
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On November 18 2015 08:16 Half the Sky wrote: Sorry Kita :/ On November 18 2015 08:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: also sorry kita. lol no worries. I probably messed up at some point if only the mafia players were willing to town read me. I think the SL pass vote on mission one messed me up the most. He hard scum read xata and then let it go through anyways. It took me a couple cycles to get over that and by the time I did, he already hated me. It was tough to get any traction on artanis once everyone suspected me and having the bad town read on rels probably didn't help. Guess we are even for personality now rels | ||
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On November 18 2015 08:20 Rels wrote: OK I really don't want to brag or anything, this is my feeling. I felt like this game was town favored. Even if the scums wins the first 2 missions, they can lose extremely easily with all the information available to town. And if any of the first 2 missions passes, townies becomes confirmed and the game is almost over for scums. Is it balanced IRL ? If it's the case, I feel like having a lot of time analyzing votes and team submissions and reads is a big disavantadge for scums. I think both the balance and the player experience would be improved by cutting the length of the game by a third. I'm not really sure the best way to do so, but the mafia team doesn't need to keep up the act for as long and we don't have to put up with so many dead cycles towards the end of the game. Ideally, town should probably fail the first 3-4 nominations each cycle for info, but when that adds an extra 48 hours each time it really becomes a drag. | ||
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Kinda similar to Artanis's nomination of Rels during cycle two. Neither wanted their nominated team to pass, yet they weren't concerned at all about the possibility of their suggested teams actually going through by accident | ||
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