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[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience - Page 9

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Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 02:43 GMT
#2513
Hmm that's true actually, you talked about them a lot (although you didn't push them for lynch). Maybe that's not the exact team then. It's too early to be thinking about associations that hard though, I'll look more in depth on those when we have a mafia flip.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 03:00 GMT
#2516
If you're mafia, there's a whole bunch of reasons to move to rayn. You're not on the wagon that's about to flip town so you don't come under suspicion for just sheeping the biggest wagon. You get to say that you were active in the lynch and had an opinion. You get to make the argument that you're making right now about how mafia would never have moved to rayn.

I think they're mafia because they've done mafia things. I've talked about it a bit already, and I said I would probably elaborate this phase. It's not worth it wasting time with unflipped associations with you to clear them when I don't know for certain that you're mafia.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 03:03 GMT
#2517
The "mafia would have done this" kind of arguments are usually unconvincing because that's exactly what you're thinking about as mafia.

You're specifically trying to avoid doing "mafia things" the whole game, so it's super easy to say "hey look at this mafia thing I didn't do, I totally would have done that as mafia!"
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 03:14 GMT
#2519
On October 27 2015 12:00 Chromatically wrote:
If you're mafia, there's a whole bunch of reasons to move to rayn. You're not on the wagon that's about to flip town so you don't come under suspicion for just sheeping the biggest wagon. You get to say that you were active in the lynch and had an opinion. You get to make the argument that you're making right now about how mafia would never have moved to rayn.

I think they're mafia because they've done mafia things. I've talked about it a bit already, and I said I would probably elaborate this phase. It's not worth it wasting time with unflipped associations with you to clear them when I don't know for certain that you're mafia.

I'm dismissing investigating them? Okay.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 03:21 GMT
#2521
That bolded part is talking about associations, which aren't very useful before a mafia flip. I'm going to continue investigating the people I think are mafia like I have been.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 18:28 GMT
#2581
On October 28 2015 03:09 Xatalos wrote:
Hmmm....

I guess that's a bit of a weird reaction...

How sold are you on this dream team of rayn/Chromatically/ritoky? I still kind of feel like Onegu is scum, and he seems like a safe lynch tomorrow. Then again, I guess there's always the incomprehensible possibility that he's town and just plays like this... I guess he did play a bit similarly as town in that earlier game.... And marv liked him too... >.> I really don't want to believe it though...

Hopeless is pretty much a policy lynch...

I guess that team wouldn't be impossible. Least confident on ritoky maybe, but rayn can very easily be scum and Chromatically could be too, considering that weird soft defense of him by rayn (which actually fits him more with his scum meta here? - picking a target and continuing to push it through eternity).. hm... In that case I'd want to lynch rayn first of all though.

All of these 3 have wanted GB dead so I guess that's a point for GB?

How is this ever a point for GB? If three different players want GB dead and have posted numerous reasons for it, it's probably because we all think he's mafia and we want to kill him for it. So the conclusion you get is that he's probably town?
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 18:31 GMT
#2582
Why are you telling GB how to play??? Telling someone "if you're town, then do this" is the complete opposite of helpful because they can just do it and then you have zero idea of their alignment. You have to look at how he plays on his own without saying "hey you should do this".

That's why I didn't ask GB for reads or his top lynches or anything when I was talking to him. If I ask him and he does it, I don't learn anything about his alignment. What matters is if he does it when I don't tell him what he should do.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 18:36 GMT
#2586
Honestly, me and ritoky should be pretty obvious town at this point in my opinion. But whatever.

I really do not understand why you and Vivax are so resistant to lynching him. Me, ritoky, and rayn have all posted very good points about why we should and it didn't even come close to happening, and it looks like it might not happen again. gumshoe attempted to "tear my case down" but his reasons didn't even address my case.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 18:37 GMT
#2587
That is the most likely team to me because PoE is pretty strong at this point (I have a very hard time seeing anyone else as mafia here) plus they're all individually very scummy. GB never actually voted either of them, and neither of them gained traction anyway so it didn't matter what he said about them.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 20:00 GMT
#2600
On October 28 2015 03:42 Xatalos wrote:
I thought ritoky was highly town early on... Now he's somewhat dropped off the radar and I can't even remember anything he did D2...? As for you, I agree you've posted a lot and there's a lot of decent reasoning, but if GB is town, it would mean that you've spent almost all of your effort on pushing first me (town) and then GB (town).... Which then kind of makes it sensible to see what GB is first, but can we afford it at this point? I'd really prefer lynching rayn atm. If rayn flipped scum, it would basically semi-clear GB... Well, that didn't work with yamato though

I think ritoky has shown well that he's legitimately trying to figure the game out, which is like the #1 town sign. The way he posts what he's thinking feels very town to me. Plus he's said the exact thing I was thinking many times. I'm pretty confidant in it.

What's your reasoning on rayn being scum now? I'm feel fairly confident that he's town now and I'd be interested to know what about him you think is scummy at this point (probably in your filter, but that's really really long).

On October 28 2015 03:46 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2015 03:31 Chromatically wrote:
Why are you telling GB how to play??? Telling someone "if you're town, then do this" is the complete opposite of helpful because they can just do it and then you have zero idea of their alignment. You have to look at how he plays on his own without saying "hey you should do this".

That's why I didn't ask GB for reads or his top lynches or anything when I was talking to him. If I ask him and he does it, I don't learn anything about his alignment. What matters is if he does it when I don't tell him what he should do.


I just said those things because I kind of feel like he could be a townie who's on the wrong track. He feels so overly paranoid that it's a bit more indicative of town than scum... Well, I guess the other explanation is that he's just scum and making impossible shit up as he goes, but wouldn't scum GB want to improve his chances of survival tomorrow, rather than ruin his chances by antagonizing the only people who consider him to be town to some extent?

I don't see how that would ruin his chances of survival though. You lynch people for doing scummy things, not because they "antagonized" you or gave you a scumread.

Like, GB hasn't even been inactive this night phase. He's been around a lot, and posting. So what is he doing??

He still says we should lynch Vivax. IF he's town, he's about to get mislynched and NO ONE wants to lynch his target. But he's not posting a case, he's not trying to talk to people and convince them to lynch Vivax, he's just existing. ESPECIALLY compared to his town pushes.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 20:11 GMT
#2608
Yeah keeping his vote on you was an absolutely stupid thing to do as either alignment. It made zero sense. So why is doing that as mafia less likely than doing it as town?

Unless he's in a team with GB (unlikely), there would be no harm in putting his vote on GB instead of you. He certainly had justified a switch enough at that point. Keeping GB as a mislynch for later..? Why not keep yamato as the mislynch? It's a totally nonsensical move as either alignment --> non-alignment indicative. (Maybe even more likely town because it puts attention on him, but that can be WIFOM too).

I think the thing about saying "good night" is a non-point. I've said I'm leaving before and come back to the thread after that, really not more likely as mafia than town.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 20:16 GMT
#2612
My problem with Hopeless' filter is that it's all questions, with no substance. D1 when he was semi-active he posted almost entirely random questions to people that never ended up as anything. Like he was trying to post a lot but didn't have anything to say. Then he just stopped posting.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 20:38 GMT
#2628
I'm really low on time so I'm just going to do some quick thoughts on Onegu.

Onegu clearly hasn't done much this game. Of course, he's not interested in finding mafia, hasn't shown a townie thought process, etc. His reads are on a totally different page then mine (ritoky and BH as mafia?). A lot of his posts feel like they're just throwing suspicion somewhere:

On October 25 2015 06:00 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2015 05:58 Chromatically wrote:
On October 25 2015 05:51 Onegu wrote:
On October 25 2015 05:27 Chromatically wrote:
I guess here's my basic idea right now:

Xatalos
gumshoe
ritoky
yamato
marv
Vivax

BH
Hopeless
Onegu
rayn

GB

I feel pretty confident the top group is town, and I wanted to put rayn in the bottom group on feel but I haven't looked into it enough to feel comfortable saying that right at this moment. Been spending my time mostly on GB.



Why is ritoky town to you?

ritoky is like a very strong feel read now I guess? The way he's joking seems like he's very comfortable in the thread. I agree with what Xatalos said about when he was in the conversation with Xatalos/marv, I liked the stuff he said about marv there a lot. I also liked this post:
On October 24 2015 18:28 ritoky wrote:
chrom seemed mafia to me cuz he couldn't take a joke, and his mafia case on me was "I'M SUPER SRS, YOU'RE NOT SUPER SRS, WHAT'S THIS GUY'S PROBLEM? OMG MAFIA~~~~ DO YOU EVEN UNDERSTAND HIM? HE SPEAKS IN TONGUES!@?!@?!@?!@>>!" but i am hesitant cuz effort level and actual cases and re-evaluating and blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh makes me not wanna commit to a read on him cuz i am a bitch.

because it seems like genuine townie hesitation to commit to a read they're not sure of (easy to just call me mafia or town as mafia).



Huh. Mafia normally dont make strong stances. That doesnt make much sense to me.

Like this post felt really strange to me, didn't say anything about ritoky's alignment but just vaguely threw suspicion on me and him.

He was extremely confident (unjustified) in townreads on rayn (during that conversation N1). He voted rayn after saying he's 99% town (although apparently he could have done it as town).

On October 25 2015 09:41 Onegu wrote:
Nope Rayn hasnt left yet. He is still town.

Xata is making zero sense here.

##Vote: Xata

I explained this earlier too, "Xata is making zero sense here" did not fit into the conversation at all because Xatalos hadn't posted anything that Onegu disagreed with for a while. It seems like Onegu wanted to vote Xatalos to be consistent with what he was saying and just threw an explanation on there without it making much sense.

Out of time so I know these aren't very well explained, but I think most people get the idea by this point.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 20:40 GMT
#2630
On October 28 2015 05:29 Xatalos wrote:
Heck, I think it's maybe more likely than just 3 from the trio...

I actually have no idea how you can possibly consider me and ritoky (maybe I can understand rayn) more likely to be mafia than GB, Onegu, and Hopeless. No clue.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 27 2015 20:41 GMT
#2631
If I get shot, lynch GB -> Onegu -> Hopeless. If one is town I think all bets are off and look again at everyone who's still alive. I'm pretty confident everyone else is town.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 28 2015 02:31 GMT
#2740
RIP the dream team but it was a good idea while it lasted.

Seriously though, I think the kill can be interpreted so many different ways. People have said that it means that mafia killed someone irrelevant because they're happy with the way things are going (meaning current targets are town). But it could also mean that mafia wanted to kill someone confusing because they want to mix things up (meaning current targets are mafia). But it could also mean that they knew we'd think that they were happy with things, or that they knew we'd think they wanted to mix it up, etc etc WIFOM. It's like double WIFOM.

It makes me a little scared, but it's irrational at this point I think.

On October 28 2015 05:42 ritoky wrote:
chroma, people who don't make sense might just be mafia.

it doesn't matter, you, me, or gumdrop is getting shot in a little bit here.

The thing is, if Xatalos is mafia, he's playing the mafia game of his life right now, by a long shot. And I really don't see that as being more likely than the simple answer of the scummiest people in the thread (GB Onegu Hopeless). Occam's razor or something.

I should probably take another close look at Vivax and maybe BH just to make sure that I'm not missing something big, but at this point I don't really see a reason to believe that.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 28 2015 02:34 GMT
#2741
On October 28 2015 06:16 Xatalos wrote:
Hmm... Quite a bit conflicted on Chromatically atm. On the other hand, I really like the huge amount of effort he's put into the game. But then, at times, it just feels like he's "going through the motions", or doing things out of obligation....?

Show nested quote +
On October 28 2015 05:38 Chromatically wrote:
I'm really low on time so I'm just going to do some quick thoughts on Onegu.

Onegu clearly hasn't done much this game. Of course, he's not interested in finding mafia, hasn't shown a townie thought process, etc. His reads are on a totally different page then mine (ritoky and BH as mafia?). A lot of his posts feel like they're just throwing suspicion somewhere:

On October 25 2015 06:00 Onegu wrote:
On October 25 2015 05:58 Chromatically wrote:
On October 25 2015 05:51 Onegu wrote:
On October 25 2015 05:27 Chromatically wrote:
I guess here's my basic idea right now:

Xatalos
gumshoe
ritoky
yamato
marv
Vivax

BH
Hopeless
Onegu
rayn

GB

I feel pretty confident the top group is town, and I wanted to put rayn in the bottom group on feel but I haven't looked into it enough to feel comfortable saying that right at this moment. Been spending my time mostly on GB.



Why is ritoky town to you?

ritoky is like a very strong feel read now I guess? The way he's joking seems like he's very comfortable in the thread. I agree with what Xatalos said about when he was in the conversation with Xatalos/marv, I liked the stuff he said about marv there a lot. I also liked this post:
On October 24 2015 18:28 ritoky wrote:
chrom seemed mafia to me cuz he couldn't take a joke, and his mafia case on me was "I'M SUPER SRS, YOU'RE NOT SUPER SRS, WHAT'S THIS GUY'S PROBLEM? OMG MAFIA~~~~ DO YOU EVEN UNDERSTAND HIM? HE SPEAKS IN TONGUES!@?!@?!@?!@>>!" but i am hesitant cuz effort level and actual cases and re-evaluating and blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh makes me not wanna commit to a read on him cuz i am a bitch.

because it seems like genuine townie hesitation to commit to a read they're not sure of (easy to just call me mafia or town as mafia).



Huh. Mafia normally dont make strong stances. That doesnt make much sense to me.

Like this post felt really strange to me, didn't say anything about ritoky's alignment but just vaguely threw suspicion on me and him.

He was extremely confident (unjustified) in townreads on rayn (during that conversation N1). He voted rayn after saying he's 99% town (although apparently he could have done it as town).

On October 25 2015 09:41 Onegu wrote:
Nope Rayn hasnt left yet. He is still town.

Xata is making zero sense here.

##Vote: Xata

I explained this earlier too, "Xata is making zero sense here" did not fit into the conversation at all because Xatalos hadn't posted anything that Onegu disagreed with for a while. It seems like Onegu wanted to vote Xatalos to be consistent with what he was saying and just threw an explanation on there without it making much sense.

Out of time so I know these aren't very well explained, but I think most people get the idea by this point.


And here it disturbed me a little bit how he was so anxious about GB stepping up to play out of a lynch:

Show nested quote +
On October 28 2015 03:31 Chromatically wrote:
Why are you telling GB how to play??? Telling someone "if you're town, then do this" is the complete opposite of helpful because they can just do it and then you have zero idea of their alignment. You have to look at how he plays on his own without saying "hey you should do this".

That's why I didn't ask GB for reads or his top lynches or anything when I was talking to him. If I ask him and he does it, I don't learn anything about his alignment. What matters is if he does it when I don't tell him what he should do.


But dunno... It's so hard to think he's scum either when several players aren't putting in much (if any) effort...

I know this probably isn't a big deal, but this bothered me so I want to clear it up.

My problem is not that GB could step up and "play out of a lynch". If he proves himself to be town, then obviously he shouldn't be lynched. My problem was that you were telling him exactly what he should do! Once you tell him what to do as town, that means that if he does it, it's no longer based on his alignment but on him just following your instructions.

And yes, I did feel compelled to post the Onegu stuff because I said I would post stuff on Onegu before the end of the phase.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 28 2015 02:35 GMT
#2742
On October 28 2015 06:28 Vivax wrote:
OK I'm an idiot GB is 100 % mafia I think.

Can you explain what happened here?
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 28 2015 02:40 GMT
#2746
lol I think I might not be being paranoid enough or something because everyone except the three (and kind of Vivax but not really) is a strong townread for me

What gumdrop is saying now is about on the same level as what he was saying yesterday about yamato and GB imo so not really bothered by it.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 28 2015 02:42 GMT
#2747
Hmm actually ritoky I'm thinking about your point about Onegu not being mafia because he wouldn't have killed rayn... that could have some basis to it maybe.

So much WIFOM though that it's hard to think that's a sound argument.
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