[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience - Page 32

On October 28 2015 05:11 Chromatically wrote:
Yeah keeping his vote on you was an absolutely stupid thing to do as either alignment. It made zero sense. So why is doing that as mafia less likely than doing it as town?

Unless he's in a team with GB (unlikely), there would be no harm in putting his vote on GB instead of you. He certainly had justified a switch enough at that point. Keeping GB as a mislynch for later..? Why not keep yamato as the mislynch? It's a totally nonsensical move as either alignment --> non-alignment indicative. (Maybe even more likely town because it puts attention on him, but that can be WIFOM too).

I think the thing about saying "good night" is a non-point. I've said I'm leaving before and come back to the thread after that, really not more likely as mafia than town.

On October 28 2015 05:38 Chromatically wrote:
I'm really low on time so I'm just going to do some quick thoughts on Onegu.

Onegu clearly hasn't done much this game. Of course, he's not interested in finding mafia, hasn't shown a townie thought process, etc. His reads are on a totally different page then mine (ritoky and BH as mafia?). A lot of his posts feel like they're just throwing suspicion somewhere:


Like this post felt really strange to me, didn't say anything about ritoky's alignment but just vaguely threw suspicion on me and him.

He was extremely confident (unjustified) in townreads on rayn (during that conversation N1). He voted rayn after saying he's 99% town (although apparently he could have done it as town).


I explained this earlier too, "Xata is making zero sense here" did not fit into the conversation at all because Xatalos hadn't posted anything that Onegu disagreed with for a while. It seems like Onegu wanted to vote Xatalos to be consistent with what he was saying and just threw an explanation on there without it making much sense.

Out of time so I know these aren't very well explained, but I think most people get the idea by this point.

On October 28 2015 03:31 Chromatically wrote:
Why are you telling GB how to play??? Telling someone "if you're town, then do this" is the complete opposite of helpful because they can just do it and then you have zero idea of their alignment. You have to look at how he plays on his own without saying "hey you should do this".

That's why I didn't ask GB for reads or his top lynches or anything when I was talking to him. If I ask him and he does it, I don't learn anything about his alignment. What matters is if he does it when I don't tell him what he should do.

On October 28 2015 06:31 Blazinghand wrote:
Here's highlighted final vote counts from each day



Going with a GB/1Gu/H1 scumteam (the "naive" scumteam, the three most scummy players in the game), things would have looked like:
+ Show Spoiler [sepculation] +


What immediately stands out to me about this theory is that it would mean 2 of 3 votes on rayn were by scum. Perhaps hoping to come out of it smelling like roses (and GB does stay on rayn the next day) after the slam flip. During Day 2, GB and 1Gu are on off-wagons, but both actually have completely the ability to kill yamato over GB. As it stands, they don’t look implicated by the Yamato flip. There’s nothing inherently broken about this possibility. Not saying this makes this scum; but we can’t rule them out based on association alone. The scumteam could work.


I think in general, looking at the first VCA highlighting:


The thing we notice most is how unlikely it is scum was forced to have a hand in the slam wagon. Even if 3 of the 5 votes on slam are scum, they could ave dispersed elsewhere and still avoided a no-lynch during D1.

During D2, you had several close wagons and almost certainly then, by definition, some kind of scum meddling in the wagon outcome. Chosing to disperse rather than consolidate IT hink explains the Onegu vote quite nicely. If GB is really town, scum wouldn’t care at all— they’d all be voting like Onegu (though GB’s vote makes no sense regardless of his alignment) and raynpelikoneet. Actually, rayn’s vote raises my suspicion of him here, just because looking at how close things got, I Can’t help but think rayn on GB (given that he was hard TRing yaamto) could have made the difference!

So, in summary GB’s vote on rayn doesn’t mean anything. I think Rayn and Onegu both deserve more scrutiny (Though Onegu is the only guy I’m scumreading out of the two of them) for what went down at the end of D2. Lastly, VCA does not RULE OUT a GB/H1/1G team— though of course I will not rule in teams as groups. You don’t draw associative tells between unflipped players.

On October 28 2015 08:05 gumshoe wrote:


screw listening to marv, listen to me XD unless its about Yamato / :

On October 28 2015 08:08 Blazinghand wrote:


Yeah so like there's two theories here.

Theory 1. The H1 1G GB wagon train was running strong. Scum looks at this and is like "this a great train. Let's let it run" and shoot rayn. Probably rayn rather than someone else who's not a leader cause a silent rayn is a significantly more pleasant rayn.

Theory 2. The H1 1G GB wagon train is running strong, and cannot be stopped no matter what. Scum figure their only chance is to confuse us by acting like they like the train and shooting someone irrelevant. They shoot rayn since, obviously, a silent rayn is an infinitely more pleasant rayn.

I think our best strategy is to assume that Theory 2 is correct and push forward with lynches on those guys today. I feel confident in my reads, and my VCA supports that as a possibility, especially 1Gu. If it turns out we're wrong on this, we can revisit things, since we have one more mislynch of breathing room. I don't think the right response here is to undo all our scumreads.