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[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience - Page 32

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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 21:04 GMT
#2644
Yeah what gumshoe said...
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 21:04 GMT
#2645
Hm I have a theory about something Vivax said but I guess I'll just say it close to deadline or something...
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 21:11 GMT
#2647
On October 28 2015 05:11 Chromatically wrote:
Yeah keeping his vote on you was an absolutely stupid thing to do as either alignment. It made zero sense. So why is doing that as mafia less likely than doing it as town?

Unless he's in a team with GB (unlikely), there would be no harm in putting his vote on GB instead of you. He certainly had justified a switch enough at that point. Keeping GB as a mislynch for later..? Why not keep yamato as the mislynch? It's a totally nonsensical move as either alignment --> non-alignment indicative. (Maybe even more likely town because it puts attention on him, but that can be WIFOM too).

I think the thing about saying "good night" is a non-point. I've said I'm leaving before and come back to the thread after that, really not more likely as mafia than town.


Oh yeah this...

Well, as town he SHOULD have cared about his townread being lynched over his scumread. Instead, he didn't care one bit. As scum it's explainable by just being fine whatever townie got lynched.

I guess the "gn" thing isn't much of a point.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 21:16 GMT
#2649
Hmm... Quite a bit conflicted on Chromatically atm. On the other hand, I really like the huge amount of effort he's put into the game. But then, at times, it just feels like he's "going through the motions", or doing things out of obligation....?

On October 28 2015 05:38 Chromatically wrote:
I'm really low on time so I'm just going to do some quick thoughts on Onegu.

Onegu clearly hasn't done much this game. Of course, he's not interested in finding mafia, hasn't shown a townie thought process, etc. His reads are on a totally different page then mine (ritoky and BH as mafia?). A lot of his posts feel like they're just throwing suspicion somewhere:

Show nested quote +
On October 25 2015 06:00 Onegu wrote:
On October 25 2015 05:58 Chromatically wrote:
On October 25 2015 05:51 Onegu wrote:
On October 25 2015 05:27 Chromatically wrote:
I guess here's my basic idea right now:

Xatalos
gumshoe
ritoky
yamato
marv
Vivax

BH
Hopeless
Onegu
rayn

GB

I feel pretty confident the top group is town, and I wanted to put rayn in the bottom group on feel but I haven't looked into it enough to feel comfortable saying that right at this moment. Been spending my time mostly on GB.



Why is ritoky town to you?

ritoky is like a very strong feel read now I guess? The way he's joking seems like he's very comfortable in the thread. I agree with what Xatalos said about when he was in the conversation with Xatalos/marv, I liked the stuff he said about marv there a lot. I also liked this post:
On October 24 2015 18:28 ritoky wrote:
chrom seemed mafia to me cuz he couldn't take a joke, and his mafia case on me was "I'M SUPER SRS, YOU'RE NOT SUPER SRS, WHAT'S THIS GUY'S PROBLEM? OMG MAFIA~~~~ DO YOU EVEN UNDERSTAND HIM? HE SPEAKS IN TONGUES!@?!@?!@?!@>>!" but i am hesitant cuz effort level and actual cases and re-evaluating and blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh makes me not wanna commit to a read on him cuz i am a bitch.

because it seems like genuine townie hesitation to commit to a read they're not sure of (easy to just call me mafia or town as mafia).



Huh. Mafia normally dont make strong stances. That doesnt make much sense to me.

Like this post felt really strange to me, didn't say anything about ritoky's alignment but just vaguely threw suspicion on me and him.

He was extremely confident (unjustified) in townreads on rayn (during that conversation N1). He voted rayn after saying he's 99% town (although apparently he could have done it as town).

Show nested quote +
On October 25 2015 09:41 Onegu wrote:
Nope Rayn hasnt left yet. He is still town.

Xata is making zero sense here.

##Vote: Xata

I explained this earlier too, "Xata is making zero sense here" did not fit into the conversation at all because Xatalos hadn't posted anything that Onegu disagreed with for a while. It seems like Onegu wanted to vote Xatalos to be consistent with what he was saying and just threw an explanation on there without it making much sense.

Out of time so I know these aren't very well explained, but I think most people get the idea by this point.


And here it disturbed me a little bit how he was so anxious about GB stepping up to play out of a lynch:

On October 28 2015 03:31 Chromatically wrote:
Why are you telling GB how to play??? Telling someone "if you're town, then do this" is the complete opposite of helpful because they can just do it and then you have zero idea of their alignment. You have to look at how he plays on his own without saying "hey you should do this".

That's why I didn't ask GB for reads or his top lynches or anything when I was talking to him. If I ask him and he does it, I don't learn anything about his alignment. What matters is if he does it when I don't tell him what he should do.


But dunno... It's so hard to think he's scum either when several players aren't putting in much (if any) effort...
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 21:44 GMT
#2655
On October 28 2015 06:31 Blazinghand wrote:
Here's highlighted final vote counts from each day

Show nested quote +
Day 1
Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghand
raynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu
Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos

Day 2
yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax,
GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand
raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear
Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet
Hopeless1der (1): Onegu


Going with a GB/1Gu/H1 scumteam (the "naive" scumteam, the three most scummy players in the game), things would have looked like:
+ Show Spoiler [sepculation] +

Day 1
Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghand
raynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu
Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos

Day 2
yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax,
GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand
raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear
Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet
Hopeless1der (1): Onegu



What immediately stands out to me about this theory is that it would mean 2 of 3 votes on rayn were by scum. Perhaps hoping to come out of it smelling like roses (and GB does stay on rayn the next day) after the slam flip. During Day 2, GB and 1Gu are on off-wagons, but both actually have completely the ability to kill yamato over GB. As it stands, they don’t look implicated by the Yamato flip. There’s nothing inherently broken about this possibility. Not saying this makes this scum; but we can’t rule them out based on association alone. The scumteam could work.


I think in general, looking at the first VCA highlighting:
Show nested quote +
Day 1
Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghand
raynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu
Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos

Day 2
yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax,
GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand
raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear
Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet
Hopeless1der (1): Onegu



The thing we notice most is how unlikely it is scum was forced to have a hand in the slam wagon. Even if 3 of the 5 votes on slam are scum, they could ave dispersed elsewhere and still avoided a no-lynch during D1.

During D2, you had several close wagons and almost certainly then, by definition, some kind of scum meddling in the wagon outcome. Chosing to disperse rather than consolidate IT hink explains the Onegu vote quite nicely. If GB is really town, scum wouldn’t care at all— they’d all be voting like Onegu (though GB’s vote makes no sense regardless of his alignment) and raynpelikoneet. Actually, rayn’s vote raises my suspicion of him here, just because looking at how close things got, I Can’t help but think rayn on GB (given that he was hard TRing yaamto) could have made the difference!

So, in summary GB’s vote on rayn doesn’t mean anything. I think Rayn and Onegu both deserve more scrutiny (Though Onegu is the only guy I’m scumreading out of the two of them) for what went down at the end of D2. Lastly, VCA does not RULE OUT a GB/H1/1G team— though of course I will not rule in teams as groups. You don’t draw associative tells between unflipped players.


Yeah that's what I said about rayn And Onegu's vote doesn't make sense on either day (D1: on his highest townread, D2: wasted).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 22:56 GMT
#2669
What... the.... fuck?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:00 GMT
#2670
Well I guess they either just wanted to improve their own enjoyment of the game... Or maybe there's some deeper reason? Like GB/ritoky are scum or scum wanted to frame them? Dunno...
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:01 GMT
#2671
This means that marv was right on rayn though.... And now I have to listen to him :/
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:04 GMT
#2674
Hm.... Well in a way this does implicate GB I guess....

Let's just have wagons on Onegu and GB for today? I think there should be at least one scum among them and this way scum have to make some hard choices.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:10 GMT
#2677
On October 28 2015 08:05 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2015 08:01 Xatalos wrote:
This means that marv was right on rayn though.... And now I have to listen to him :/


screw listening to marv, listen to me XD unless its about Yamato / :


Haha well, it looks like everything would have gone for the better if I had just assumed marv and rayn as non-lynchable for D1-D2. They're likely NK targets anyway if town so not a lot of reason to lynch them early on. That's what I usually did before, but I started to maybe become unnecessarily wary of them due to some recent games... Well, should prolly just go back to ignoring them early on..
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:13 GMT
#2678
On October 28 2015 08:08 Blazinghand wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2015 08:04 gumshoe wrote:
On October 28 2015 07:56 Xatalos wrote:
What... the.... fuck?


I Know 0_0 its hard not to overthink this.

I think the onegu, gb, hopeless train was pretty set last night. If scum liked that lineup, they wouldnt have done anything to rock the boat is my guess.

This shot makes me think scum wanted us to read into it and alter course? maybe? Unless the reasoning was the trolly one I mentioned earlier XD

Ironically I feel a bit better about the direction town is taking, so barring something crazy, my vote is safe where it is.


Yeah so like there's two theories here.

Theory 1. The H1 1G GB wagon train was running strong. Scum looks at this and is like "this a great train. Let's let it run" and shoot rayn. Probably rayn rather than someone else who's not a leader cause a silent rayn is a significantly more pleasant rayn.

Theory 2. The H1 1G GB wagon train is running strong, and cannot be stopped no matter what. Scum figure their only chance is to confuse us by acting like they like the train and shooting someone irrelevant. They shoot rayn since, obviously, a silent rayn is an infinitely more pleasant rayn.

I think our best strategy is to assume that Theory 2 is correct and push forward with lynches on those guys today. I feel confident in my reads, and my VCA supports that as a possibility, especially 1Gu. If it turns out we're wrong on this, we can revisit things, since we have one more mislynch of breathing room. I don't think the right response here is to undo all our scumreads.


LOL great reasoning

Anyways, I agree, we should probably lynch Onegu today... Or perhaps GB/hopeless, but I think hopeless could be town and maybe GB as well... Well, I won't be sad if either of them disappears.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:14 GMT
#2679
So basically lynching into the trio should be fine for today, and quite likely to hit scum.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:15 GMT
#2680
I wonder... rayn's death kind of implicates GB though... Since he was one of the pro-Onegu, anti-GB faction... :/
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:19 GMT
#2681
GB is also a more controversial figure... So there could be more information from him...
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:19 GMT
#2682
Choices, choices...
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:20 GMT
#2683
Well, I guess I'll just go along with gumshoe/BH today.... You were right on rayn too...
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:24 GMT
#2685
Yeah I guess Onegu is fine. There's basically no way he's going to help town at LYLO even if he's town. He voted for rayn (his highest townread) with a (at the time) decisive vote, and wasted his vote on D2. Even if he's town, he will just lose the game....
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:35 GMT
#2687
I suppose it's hard to truly screw up... When any of the more inactive players could flip scum, and at least it isn't a set lynch on one player, so there could still be some info gained from today's wagons.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:36 GMT
#2688
I guess even both Onegu and GB could potentially be scum. GB did say that he wanted to lynch Onegu D2, but it wasn't a hard bus or anything.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 27 2015 23:37 GMT
#2689
More like a soft, soft bus.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
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