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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
I've been thinking a lot about the D3 lynch, I think I have nice flowchart-type things of what to do and how logical certain teams are depending on the flip we get next. I don't think that they're super relevant at this moment though. If anyone has a preference as to Hopeless or GB today, then say it now. The only worry I have about Hopeless today is trying to get gumshoe to vote GB tomorrow in the case where Hopeless is town and sends us into LYLO. | ||
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United States1700 Posts
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United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 01:39 gumshoe wrote: ... hes done this twice -_- dumped a ton of effort into reads that dont matter if he flips scum, which he must assume will happen because his buddies have bussed him 2 days in a row. Hes more concerned with us taking him seriusly after hes dead than trying to stay alive. thats not scum He is perfectly capable of doing this as mafia, I quoted it to you. Putting effort into the game when you're about to be lynched is not a town tell (in general, but also for GB specifically). | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:01 gumshoe wrote: To chrom, let me tell ya about voting : P not mafia voting, I mean voting voting. Everyone should do it right? Its a tiny little thing that has a good chance to improve your overall life, so why dont we? Why is only seventy percent voter turn out considered a good thing? Also why is higher voter turnouts considered bad for the people in power? Its because as a whole we dont act unless we have too, and we know our actions will make a difference. Thats why effort is townie, it's hard to bring yourself to write up massive cases that you know is bullshit, thats why scummers end games with 5 page filters while towners have 30. as for you argument hes was trying to convince us to spare him through effort. 1: the case was against me -_- the guy most likely to spare him, 2: it was pretty terrible. 3: not once this game has anyone been swayed by the pants on head logic, so there's was no reason to think it would work now. I dont see how gb thought he was going to live with his own teamates bussing him and by accusing his ally AND by having a shit argument. More likely? He just thought he was gonna flip town and blow the whole case wide open post mortem / : By writing arguments like that, he looks like he's trying to find mafia, which will make people think that he is town. That's why people do that when they're about to be lynched, so they can look more town. The point isn't that he was hoping to convince people to vote you over him, he was hoping that people would look at his case and think, "oh that's a townie thing to do". The fact that his argument was bad should be a point against him, not for him. | ||
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United States1700 Posts
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On November 02 2015 01:33 gumshoe wrote: sigh, gb has no way to win this game if hes scum, his actions are no consistent with a scummer whose about to die and invalidate all his reads / : like theres still confidence in his voice cause he thinks town can win, if hes scum with hopeless his tone would be much diffrent? But maybe I'm reading his voice all wrong T_T(this would be so much easier to acertain and convince people of in voice or video / : its just hard to translate a tone read) If gb was scum with hopeless and onegu, why did he shoot rayn? Clearly onegu did it for cred but he claims this looks bad on hopeless, We can't know why rayn was killed, but it could just be very simple reasons. Maybe Onegu did it so he could make that argument in the thread, and it has absolutely nothing to do with the other mafia at all. Or maybe it was something else, like GB wanted to kill one of the people who was going after him hard in the thread. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:13 gumshoe wrote: See, I read gb as a pretty emotional player, I cant see him doing that when his own team is bussing him in such a derpy fashion when it was all likely for not / : I've read his scum games, hes not that good an actor, show me one time he was in such a situation and he had the balls to attack the guy he had the best shot of convincing with a case that big. If you can demonstrate capacity, I'll concede, but otherwise his scum play this game is an anomaly, that and as much you might hate to admit, the derpiest player is usually town, does that suck? Yes, but that doesn't make it less true / : I don't understand what you mean about his team "bussing him in a derpy fashion". I've explained that if GB is mafia, then the lynch was two mafia. This means that Onegu/Hopeless (assuming Hopeless mafia) would have no choice but to vote for a mafia. Honestly, I really don't have the time to go into every game where he was up for lynch, find out who his biggest defender was, and then see if GB attacked them. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:14 Blazinghand wrote: I still feel good about GB/H1 scum. I understand there's some people feeling unconfident here but we just need to stay the course. This might be the last day we're able to lynch GB, too-- people who are scumreading him have been getting shot over time. Regardless, I'm figuring we lynch GB and H1 and win the game. And, as you said, even if one of them is town, it's almost certain they're not BOTH town. Yep, I'm still on the GB/Hopeless idea too. I'm just arguing for the cases where it's not true, we should still lynch the other one and they shouldn't both be town. I have to go for a few hours before the lynch so I'll probably move over to GB before then since that's what it's looking like. Prevent shenannies or something I guess? | ||
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United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:15 Blazinghand wrote: I think it would be a mistake to overspeculate on the rayn nk, but I will note that there's nothing inherently wrong with it with a GB/1G/H1 team. Like, yeah, rayn wasn't captain mcuseful but those guys could have shot him, and 1G certainly had a reason to if nothing else Yeah, it's not a point in favor of GB being mafia, just trying to show that it's not a reason that GB is town either. | ||
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United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:29 gumshoe wrote: Onegu: guys I wanna kill rayn cause it looks good on me but bad on you! gb: You do that bro! your our only hope! do whatever you can to win : D I cant see it -_- if gb is scum hes the most active by far, he would decide the shot for certain, especially because he would have hopless's support (the rayn shot was bad for him according to onegu) We keep bending over backwards to justify how Gb is playing this obscure wifom game, when it's really just more likely that theres was someone who didnt suffer from the rayn shot along with onegu / : Or maybe it's: GB: "rayn is really pushing me hard, let's kill him" Onegu: "aww but he's defending me" Or maybe it's: GB: "rayn is really annoying, let's kill him" Onegu: "yeah he is" Or maybe it's a whole bunch of different things that we can't actually know. We have no clue what would happen. | ||
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United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:35 gumshoe wrote: the emotions were wrong scum emotions: lol you guys so bad, im a dt bros dont shoot me directed at self protection town emotions: im gonna die, better contribute. directed at post mortem contribution in gbs state, I dont think he would honestly put the effort in to do the latter(especially given the case he brought up) if his team was bussing him and all of town pretty much wanted him dead. Real talk: I am a mediocre player when it comes to finding scum, but I am insanely good whenever this situation pops up, the people I defend in this fashion are town almost 100 percent of the time, that doesnt save them because I'm not the best at convincing others / : also gb is def one of the dodgier clients ive defended. That said, I'm not asking you to not kill gb if thats what you have to do, just dont kill gb right now because there is doubt. Whereas with hopeless, the only people showing doubt are the suspects / : I quoted a bunch of posts that show that those emotions are not accurate to his alignment! As mafia, he has contributed as he's being lynched. As town, he has called people bad as he's being lynched. He does both as either alignment. | ||
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United States1700 Posts
I want GB because knowing what the wagons are is nice, he's getting harder to lynch (especially if Hopeless is town and we go to LYLO), he's very likely to be mafia from play, and personal gratification. I want Hopeless because it feels incorrect to let him live another day without playing, and because he's very likely to be mafia just from his vote yesterday. Maybe this is getting to far ahead, but in the event that we lynched Hopeless today and he flipped mafia, I think it's pretty important that we lynch GB next and not at LYLO. That way, in the event that GB is town, we have maximum information at LYLO on the D3 wagons so we can determine what the most likely last mafia is. I guess this scenario is unlikely though because it's not LYLO if Hopeless is mafia so GB probably gets lynched. So I'm not sure if any of these reasons is better than the others. | ||
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United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:50 gumshoe wrote: sure we can lynch gb tommorow, as I dont see vivax getting lynched till lylo(you want a slippery one, there ya go). But yeah, we need to kill hopeless today, gb and vivax arent scum together so hopeless must be. Yeah... although it's technically possible the team is something insane like GB+ritoky I guess? It's pretty hard to see a world where it's not Hopeless (although it's pretty hard for me to see not GB too). I'm just worried that you won't go on GB again tomorrow gumshoe, you betrayed me once before after yamato  . | ||
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United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 00:46 GlowingBear wrote: After I die, think twice before doing meta cases. Hint: they suck. Gut feelings say hopeless is town. Facts point out to him being mafia (him voting me like that today is bad). If you trust gumshoe's appeal to me, he is town. If not, he is always mafia with Onegu. I trust it. I don't think someone can get that low and swear on the life of others and be lying. Really, this is my reason to town read him. After I die, kill Vivax. Then think twice about BH. I'm town. If I die today, will you reach MYLO? If yes, kill Vivax. If no, get rid of hopeless so you guys can clear your heads. Read the latest student mafia so you can see I can be this burned out as town. I was town there. I will vote Vivax because he keeps saying he is ready to in scum read me and was going against gumshoe automatically after I've brought that case. There was no real interaction between them before he decided my case was good and no tral interaction before he decided gumshoe was town again and I was mafia. He's most likely to be mafia after all. ##Vote: Vivax Still, I have no idea why I'm mafia besides the meta case. Can anyone elaborate on this? What does the underlined mean here? | ||
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United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 03:05 gumshoe wrote: I'm sorry ) : your right I do owe you one, if you really really really wanna kill gb I wont oppose it ok? It's just not the optimal move ) : also if the team could BE something with ritoky, wouldnt it be better to know now before lylo? Gb's kill doesn't tell us anything about that T_T I'm not entirely sure what the correct move is here. GB's kill would tell us about the wagons yesterday (which we don't get form Hopeless), so that we can start considering bus possibilities if GB was town? The only way lynching one of them before the other is a problem is if both of them are town. So, we should lynch whichever one will give us the best information to decide if the other one could be town. If GB is town, then we can start considering whether the team was stacked on him (with Hopeless) or if it's some crazy bus (even though we should lynch Hopeless next anyway). If Hopeless is town, then... I don't think we get very much about other from that? Lynching for information feels bad but I think it's the best tiebreaker? | ||
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United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 03:10 gumshoe wrote: I totally forgot about this T_T I will vote for whatever chrom votes today, but let it be known that Hopeless is objectively the best kill : P Yeah lol you shouldn't do this, vote who you want. It's good that there's at least a discussion about it. (maybe I'll call it in tomorrow though) On November 02 2015 03:09 Vivax wrote: Yes ritoky should be here choosing the guy to vote. It makes me uncomfortable he's afk since he proclamed himself conf town. I agree with this, I was very confident that he was town but him being MIA makes me uncomfortable here. Probably nothing but I had the same feeling. | ||
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United States1700 Posts
On November 02 2015 03:28 GlowingBear wrote: Hopeless is always a question mark. If you can afford a second mislynch (after I die), go for hopeless. If not, then go for Vivax which I think is way scummier. Guys, is this a scumslip? If you're town, then we're in LYLO and can't afford a mislynch after GB dies. If you're mafia, then we can afford a mislynch after GB dies. Maybe he just isn't thinking about the game at all and didn't count the number of players left..? But why would he even bring up the scenario that we could have another mislynch after him? If he's mafia and forgot that he has to count himself as a mislynch? | ||
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United States1700 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: GlowingBear | ||
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United States1700 Posts
gumshoe, you are a superior being to me. | ||
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