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[M][N] Completely Normal Generic Mini Mafia - Page 159

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
September 27 2015 15:27 GMT
#3161
I think what I am trying to say is that it benefits ceph having less confirmed in the game vs it benefits Palomar having less people looking at him.

But saying that I would leave rit in the game to with his inactivity.

Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
September 27 2015 15:50 GMT
#3162
I looked through some of ceph old games activity isn't indicative for him, content however seems to be a decent indicator.

For example some of,his town games posts are pretty big that's packed with opinions and what he thinks of everyone and what he wants to push. He barely argues why he's not mafia and just says it a a bad decision in the game I looked at.

It's interesting and vastly different from what I see here which is little opinions. Over reactions etc.

It makes me lean more scum on him.
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
September 27 2015 18:01 GMT
#3163
When people,get here go read his last town game and look at his thoughts progress abd how he handles lynched.

Then read cell and compare the case or push on geript compared to his push here. It looks really similar to me at least
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
September 27 2015 20:54 GMT
#3164
I ám reading along but tomorrow is gonna be the day for me.
Computer says mafia
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
September 27 2015 21:17 GMT
#3165
Hi Palmar

I've read lo try a and um waffling but I think ceph is the mafia I'm curious any thoughts you have.
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
September 27 2015 23:28 GMT
#3166
On September 28 2015 06:17 Damdred wrote:
Hi Palmar

I've read lo try a and um waffling but I think ceph is the mafia I'm curious any thoughts you have.

Thoughts still the same. I think we lynch ceph and your effort when no one is around makes me feel better about that.
I am not making a decision until I read both your filters tomorrow though.

The kill was weird but not sure I want to open that can of wifom
Computer says mafia
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
September 28 2015 00:25 GMT
#3167
Ok Palomar to add to the lines of questions.

You said earlier that you were trying to,give Marv space to figure him out etc. However jat is right your filter is pretty marvcentric in spots. So why focus on him so much if you are trying to give him space
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
September 28 2015 00:36 GMT
#3168
Been away for the first half since I didn't feel motivated at all after trying my hardest before the last lynch and still not being able to get anything done. Also because I'm still at my grandparents and it's not a long visit, so wanted to spend time with them as much as possible.

Currently my logic says I should be voting for Damdred, and this is what I mostly support as well, for reasons given previously. My gut feeling on the other hand is Palmar, and if it had been around 95/5 in favour of lynching Damdred before I'm sitting at around 80/20 currently, making me really hesitate to vote yet.

I tried to reason the nightkill, but it makes sense from both perspectives.

Palmar PoV: He ignored me trying to convince him yesterday to some extent. I'm not saying he didn't provide any reasoning for doing so, but it wasn't as solid as it could've been, and left me with a feeling of "I'm just going to do what I want / what I need", rather than "I listened to you but I just don't agree enough to follow your suggestion"

Jat kill makes sense from a palmar pov as jat was already to some extent suspicious of him, even if not much, whereas the remainder of us alive had him pegged as a very strong townread. So he'd eliminate the one likely to go after him the most, and keep two viable targets around. What makes me especially suspect this is the fact that even yesterday, he didn't really properly disagree with my case, but he still seemed fairly defensive of Damdred. And the first thing he does today is point out that I need to get killed "but I'll look into filters just in case". With the amount of reasoning he's provided for me as mafia, I'm calling complete bullshit on going through filters and just naming me for the sake of naming me. Whether that's a town palmar not giving a fuck or scum Palmar rolling with agenda, I'm not entirely sure.

The thing is, there aren't really many logical holes in his play, because he hasn't heavily committed to anything. He's around to give his opinion, ask something a bit on so on, but at no point has he had to take extremely firm stances toward anything, nor has he been pushed for it because his play on a general level has still seemed town-like even without extreme committing. And the thing is, I can perfectly see this play coming from a scum Palmar, even if I do feel it's more likely to be a town Palmar. But there's nothing in his filter that makes me think "scum Palmar would never ever do this" either. Also Palmar's reads have been shit this game, and while everyone has bad games and is very wrong every now and then, I wouldn't expect a player with his experience to be this wrong about so many players, given how many other players picked up on things he did not. (Knowing that jat was town helps me in this regard as well, since I feel much more confident about having picked up on marv / Wile for the correct reasons, instead of just having been lucky and arriving at the right conclusion with bad logic, as I was really unsure if jat was so correct because of his own merit, or if he had the knowledge while being mafia.)

Then there's Damdred. Jat kill is not as optimal from his point of view, but it still supports him in certain ways. For example, jat was one of the players last day who seemed the most ready to go on Damdred after reading my case. Also, seeing how Palmar didn't feel like co-operating with me at all, he could easily make the conclusion that keeping Palmar around is a fair chance of having someone to oppose me and create extra wifom, considering that if the vote becomes a 2-2, it's enough if he has just one person to support him.

Palmar's actions today make me lean more scum on him before, as it's pretty much exactly what I'd expect from him if he's scum. While damdred on the other hand is also making a play that I'd expect from scum (upping effort as he survived last lynch, trying to seem as townie as possible), i feel some genuinity from all the small posts he makes pointing out things, even if all of them aren't good at all.

(Also seriously, I've said this way too many times by now, why the fuck do you try to make anything out of my meta with my last games being more than 2+ years old, and by the way you worded your post you seem to be saying "Ceph is playing a little bit differently than last game he was town in, so he must be scum now", which is absolutely fucking retarded.) If you are that interested in trying to figure me out with meta (which you by the way, never ever will), you could read all my games from the start and get into the conclusion that my play both as scum and town have an extremely wide range both regarding content, activity, and the genius/retardedness of my actions.

Logic is telling me to stick with Damdred. My gut feeling is telling me to go with Palmar. I'm really not sure at this point, and I hope any extra posts either of you will write will help me decide correctly.

I'll also be traveling back tomorrow and won't be home until around an hour before lynch deadline at most, but once I arrive I'll be around until we lynch whoever we end up lynching, so don't you dare to lynch me for not being around or "fucking off" while I'm not able to participate.

I saw damdred had some questions pointed at me, so I'll reply those in a short manner before going to check out the red moon eclipse thing and then going to sleep.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
September 28 2015 00:58 GMT
#3169
On September 27 2015 12:37 Damdred wrote:
Ceph when you return, why do you vote wile but later on when talking to rayn tell him if wile comes back and answers it will probably tilt your read? And you seem so defeated with the wile lynch before even really pushing it?


1) Because obviously when someone addresses questions I point at them, it is likely to affect my read on them in a way or another. Could cause me to lean more town on them, more scum or them, or not change it either way.
Tilt = Changing it slightly in either direction

2) Not really at first, but when I'm one of the mislynch wagons, and I believe there's at least one more mislynch wagon that I'm trying to avoid (Moosy), and no-one seems to give a fuck about what I say even after repeating myself, there's only so long you can stay optimistic about trying to get something done. I didn't have the thread presence to take control of where the lynch was going. I did not have as much material to push Wile as I had to push you last cycle. There were more players that I would've had to convince, and I had to ensure my own survival as well. It ended up with me just having to try and say what I thought of the situation and hope someone listens to me, and that time my voice didn't carry enough, thanks to everyone that thought I'm scummy because I wasn't around for the middle of the D1 cycle. (Fucking great logic, confirmt scum for not being around when you want me to)

On September 27 2015 12:41 Damdred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 17 2015 05:57 Cephiro wrote:
On September 17 2015 05:56 Wile E. Coyote wrote:
I was literally about to vote geript or on onegu who I feel definitely deserves presure. Then this shit happens


Onegu lynch is highly unlikely to happen at this point, you'd probably be better off deciding who you want to lynch between me/you/JAT/Moosy. Only 30 minutes left to vote after all.


This post and a following one is so weird, it almost feels like coaching/reminding to do something.

I don't know can you explain the few posts in your filter here when your talking to wile ceph and you don't really bring uo the questions you were asking him earlier? I don't really see any follow up on them


If I'm not mistaken, by this point I didn't have much confidence in Wile lynch happening at all (30 minutes left, I had been around for a while but people didn't vote for him at all even for a moment), so I just pointed out how an Onegu lynch is useless at that point and telling what he should be doing. (After all, he could have been a townie even if I was suspicious of him at that point). If I want to give tips to a scumbuddy, I do that in the QT. I don't really see any coaching or purely scum-oriented reminding in what you just quoted. I told him the options of the day's lynch, that I'm sure the whole thread would've agreed with, and pointed out there's a deadline in which you have to vote. I can also honestly admit that after being around for a while, trying to push my opinions but nothing happening, I was starting to get more concerned about my own ass than ensuring a scum lynch. (Marv wasn't going to happen, and Wile didn't get traction), so at that point I doubt me questioning him further about it would've done much. In hindsight it might've been worth a try and something I should've pushed harder, but I'm confident I still would not have been able to make a change in the D1 lynch.

As for calling my reaction "fake", do you have any idea how disheartening it felt after giving my all and more to try and get you lynched, everyone including you agreeing that the case is solid, then still not fucking joining me in my quest to get you lynched? Like people agreed and couldn't refute the logic behind the case, but they go "we're just gonna lynch geript because fuck geript". I was so emotionally invested at the end of the day, by the contrast of how hard I pushed for you last cycle compared to the rest of my game it should be more than obvious I gave it my all to try and get you lynched last cycle. And people agreed with my reasoning. They couldn't refute it. But they didn't follow and mislynched. It's super disheartening to see that happen. I'm still disappointed in how that turned out.

Also an additional point about Palmar which makes me feel bad about him even more, look at how much he's just repeating "i'll just check the filters later". He's said that for so fucking many times in this game now. I remember my first newbie game which I was scum in, and after some shenanigans I had a basically "confirmed town" status. I just rode with it, delaying all the analysis I was supposed to make on my scumbuddy (because everyone is a viable option in lylo), because I was confident they would not call me out for it early enough and we'd end the game before they would be able to do anything about it. And thus it happened, even with me delaying and delaying (I did eventually deliver), it was long enough to keep the atmosphere questionable / waiting for my insight / not progressing the thread or solving the situation any further. And that's exactly what Palmar is doing right now. And has been doing for a fair while now. I still think he didn't give much of a fuck about yesterday at all, and seeing him continue that style today is just really edging me.

Guts say Palmar, logic says Damdred. I'm not confident enough to make a decision, but you can be damn sure I could lynch either of you by the end of this daycycle.

Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
September 28 2015 01:02 GMT
#3170
EBWOP: I'm going to vote for Palmar for now, but you're not off the list of options at all Dam. Be sure to keep that in mind, and do keep contributing like you have done today so far if you're truly town and want to help us win this game.
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
September 28 2015 01:50 GMT
#3171
Befor ei tackle your big post (which isn't bad) I want to ask you to take me through your thought process coming from palmar is basically confirmed town and ending up voting palmar? I know the reasons you just stated but its a pretty sudden shift at this point?
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
September 28 2015 02:01 GMT
#3172
Going out for the red moon thing, back in 1,5 hours or so prolly.

Short ver since I happened to see your post just before leaving:

Want to show him I'm not afraid of voting for him and considering him a candidate for today's lynch seriously, because I'm sure that you already know more than well enough that I'm ready vote for you as is without additional reasoning.

Also because I want to see his reaction considering 2 votes can cause someone to get lynched at this point, I'm extremely curious if he'll vote or if he'll hold his vote. I have my own guess about what's going to happen regarding that.

Also palmar is basically not confirmed town to me currently, I thought my post made that fairly clear. If I was to take nothing but his posts into account purely, I'd arrive to the conclusions that there aren't any "huge flaws" in his play, but as I said, is lack of heavier commitment and experience makes it very possible for him to hold it up for a long game like that without making a bigger slip. (And again, as I already mentioned, being wrong on so many accords where other players have been pinning down scum much better, yet instantly being ready to go for me at the start of the day cycle while being wishy about me last night, could even say avoiding me to some extent...)

Once I'm back I can post for a little while, after that I will be not available until a bit before deadline (As explained before, will be traveling and spending the day with grandparents)
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 28 2015 03:09 GMT
#3173
i'm not in a good mood. and then i have to come back and solve this game. am pissed.
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 28 2015 03:16 GMT
#3174
kill motivations are simple. you all have them. stop whining about it.

damdred makes that kill to swag on me, and to appeal to emotion and say something like "your soul read is shit, you're about to lynch me and lose the game" to fuck with my head.

cephiro makes that kill because jat wasn't sure on him and was really just taking my word for it while i defended him all game.

palmar makes that kill because he respects jat's effort level and kills the person who is most prone to solve the game or put in the effort to solve the game.

stop tryin to wifom motivations it is a waste of your brain power.
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
September 28 2015 03:16 GMT
#3175
Back, "around" for an hour or so. Only caught a glimpse during the start of the best phase, after that clouds decided to ruin it all so I ended up going for a nightwalk with no moon. Oh well.
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 28 2015 03:21 GMT
#3176
having consulted my brain and his filter, i am currently least likely to vote on damdred. that said, his is the only filter i have read.
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 28 2015 03:40 GMT
#3177
yo damdred, tell me the top 3 reasons why i should think you're town.
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 28 2015 03:45 GMT
#3178
cephiro, have you looked into any of the other 2 players' previous games?
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
September 28 2015 03:49 GMT
#3179
No, I have not. I do not have the time to go through multiple past games of theirs which would give enough insight for a possible meta read to some extent, and I believe that any experienced player is capable of playing differently / intentionally manipulating their "meta" if they so wish, to their advantage, thus making it absolutely pointless.
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 28 2015 03:55 GMT
#3180
On September 28 2015 12:49 Cephiro wrote:
No, I have not. I do not have the time to go through multiple past games of theirs which would give enough insight for a possible meta read to some extent, and I believe that any experienced player is capable of playing differently / intentionally manipulating their "meta" if they so wish, to their advantage, thus making it absolutely pointless.


honest question, what has been keeping you from playing more frequently the entire game? because outside of this and the first phase you've kinda been a deadline warrior.
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
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