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On June 26 2015 22:50 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote + I recognise that there is a very minimal chance that HF is miller/was framed, but given that it's a red check from the confirmed cop, I think the odds are much better there than they would be with anyone else. You realise that this automatically loses us the game? It's not a "minimal chance" it's the actual fact of the matter. You need to reevaluate. I realise that having rsoultin in your qt is a detriment since she was so tunneled on wifom scenarios that she couldn't see the actual version of events that unfolded and repeatedly shut down any discourse for the correct version of events but still. I totally understand how hard it is to believe someone that has a red check on them but at least try what i did yesterday and make scenarios for the 2 eventualities that will unfold. "if hf is town mafia is x, y, z" "if hf is mafia then mafia x, y, z" because that way you won't be totally tunneled on the wrong situation
HF, I'd be happy if you'd read the post I made about you here, and responded to it.
Take it all into consideration and try to imagine it from my point of view.
The chance that you aren't mafia is so small that I can't see a reason to believe that you aren't.
Of course you're going to say that you're town if you're mafia. Anything else would just lose you the game.
Like tell me, if you were a betting man, would you put money on you being mafia or not?
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On June 26 2015 22:40 Holyflare wrote:So what you're telling me is that when i made a case on damdred and you responded you did so without even giving a crap about damdred's filter??
I skimmed over his filter to find evidence to support the points you made.
I was not looking to make a total judgement of damdred at that time.
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On June 26 2015 18:21 Fidei86 wrote:
Okay, with rsoult out it looks like I'm going to have to take up the reins a little bit.
As an opener, I assume we are all onboard with lynching Mig and HF? I recognise that there is a very minimal chance that HF is miller/was framed, but given that it's a red check from the confirmed cop, I think the odds are much better there than they would be with anyone else.
Mig is a no-brainer, given that ritoky was suspicious of him (and this feels a lot like what happened in HG, when rit was suspicious of TT, who was mafia), and also the whole GB green-check bait.
If people really aren't enthused about posting, we can play it out until then, as the NK's will further narrow the pool.
Fidei, I'd love to hear your thoughts on the situation. Who are your top mafia reads?
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On June 27 2015 02:00 VayneAuthority wrote:
I have decided that damdred is 100% scum, truth (tm) read.
still undecided on holyflare. but it would make sense to slide him into GB's spot on my diagram as I was on the wrong side of the argument. I felt one had to be scum.
So if we cross out my left diagram and go with the right we end up with
( glowingbear Holyflare, Mig, damdred, ???)
Care to give some reasons?
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On June 27 2015 04:04 Holyflare wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2015 23:12 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2015 22:50 Holyflare wrote: I recognise that there is a very minimal chance that HF is miller/was framed, but given that it's a red check from the confirmed cop, I think the odds are much better there than they would be with anyone else. You realise that this automatically loses us the game? It's not a "minimal chance" it's the actual fact of the matter. You need to reevaluate. I realise that having rsoultin in your qt is a detriment since she was so tunneled on wifom scenarios that she couldn't see the actual version of events that unfolded and repeatedly shut down any discourse for the correct version of events but still. I totally understand how hard it is to believe someone that has a red check on them but at least try what i did yesterday and make scenarios for the 2 eventualities that will unfold. "if hf is town mafia is x, y, z" "if hf is mafia then mafia x, y, z" because that way you won't be totally tunneled on the wrong situation HF, I'd be happy if you'd read the post I made about you here, and responded to it. Take it all into consideration and try to imagine it from my point of view. The chance that you aren't mafia is so small that I can't see a reason to believe that you aren't. Of course you're going to say that you're town if you're mafia. Anything else would just lose you the game. Like tell me, if you were a betting man, would you put money on you being mafia or not? Your reasons are silly and tunneled. I am clearly a miller or framed, stop judging by scenarios and judge by my actual play! Where have i pushed mafia things? I've only pushed what i believe to be the case. Gb said he checked lightningstrike but town read him on n1. He then checks me when he said all of my mafia reads that i had been pushing were his mafia reads? Then mig reveals he's tracker. I believed the sensible option and was wrong. See how that works? The most obvious is not always the case. I was supremely tunneled on gb being mafia and my vote was already on gb before mig claimed tracker. Like you said. Mig claiming gets a free cop death or ends in his death anyway. Gb said he had to go to school and then mig claimed without the resistance. It's not hard to reason that mig took that chance. Onegu could be mafia anyway and he didn't "need" mafia to do it and i'm not sure why you say mafia must be on it when the majority of the wagon was town. You yourself even started to believe the claim, are you saying you are mafia too? None of your reasons point to me being mafia. If i'm a tunneled towny and see the person i call mafia all game promote the shittiest reads and checks with bad reasons amd then i see something to convince me I'm right what would i do in that situation? The exact same thing.
Holyflare wrote:
Your reasons are silly and tunneled. I am clearly a miller or framed, stop judging by scenarios and judge by my actual play! + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2015 06:42 Holyflare wrote:
it doesn't matter, i'll flip vt or miller and then you make sense of his claim later
really don't think mafia would frame me in this case On June 24 2015 23:04 Holyflare wrote:
like seriously this is mafia's thought process if you think i was framed and gb is town:
"yeh gb is fake cop or whatever cz that mig check totally bad, who should we frame guys since he's not the cop? OH that guy that looks pretty towny and shit and will probably never ever get checked?????????"
On June 25 2015 00:21 Holyflare wrote:
If you believe mig is mafia and GB didn't get rb'd or killed because they thought he was fake claiming, then they would never ever in their life frame me since GB is the only one that would ever check me. On June 25 2015 01:27 Holyflare wrote:
but this doesn't matter, they'll see my flip and go straight for you
btw to everyone else, if he ever ever ever claims that i must be framed, do NOT believe that bull shit
Clearly you were not framed. So the *only* reason you were redchecked is that you're a miller.
Holyflare wrote:
Gb said he checked lightningstrike but town read him on n1
I agree that this didn't make much sense.
Holyflare wrote:
Onegu could be mafia anyway and he didn't "need" mafia to do it and i'm not sure why you say mafia must be on it when the majority of the wagon was town.
The only reason there was so many town people on that wagon was because VA outed himself. If VA didn't confirm that he went to bugs, I doubt very few town people would've actually switched to GB. I know I would never even have considered it if it wasn't for VA.
There is *no way* that mig could've expected that "support" from VA.
Hence he needed support from other mafioso to even have a shot. Otherwise he would've just let you die.
I already showed you why mig wasn't in danger.
-----
Everything else aside, you want me to take the 1/13 chance that you are the miller? That is a 8% chance.
I'm not taking those odds.
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On June 27 2015 08:59 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2015 06:31 ruXxar wrote:On June 27 2015 04:04 Holyflare wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2015 23:12 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2015 22:50 Holyflare wrote: I recognise that there is a very minimal chance that HF is miller/was framed, but given that it's a red check from the confirmed cop, I think the odds are much better there than they would be with anyone else. You realise that this automatically loses us the game? It's not a "minimal chance" it's the actual fact of the matter. You need to reevaluate. I realise that having rsoultin in your qt is a detriment since she was so tunneled on wifom scenarios that she couldn't see the actual version of events that unfolded and repeatedly shut down any discourse for the correct version of events but still. I totally understand how hard it is to believe someone that has a red check on them but at least try what i did yesterday and make scenarios for the 2 eventualities that will unfold. "if hf is town mafia is x, y, z" "if hf is mafia then mafia x, y, z" because that way you won't be totally tunneled on the wrong situation HF, I'd be happy if you'd read the post I made about you here, and responded to it. Take it all into consideration and try to imagine it from my point of view. The chance that you aren't mafia is so small that I can't see a reason to believe that you aren't. Of course you're going to say that you're town if you're mafia. Anything else would just lose you the game. Like tell me, if you were a betting man, would you put money on you being mafia or not? Your reasons are silly and tunneled. I am clearly a miller or framed, stop judging by scenarios and judge by my actual play! Where have i pushed mafia things? I've only pushed what i believe to be the case. Gb said he checked lightningstrike but town read him on n1. He then checks me when he said all of my mafia reads that i had been pushing were his mafia reads? Then mig reveals he's tracker. I believed the sensible option and was wrong. See how that works? The most obvious is not always the case. I was supremely tunneled on gb being mafia and my vote was already on gb before mig claimed tracker. Like you said. Mig claiming gets a free cop death or ends in his death anyway. Gb said he had to go to school and then mig claimed without the resistance. It's not hard to reason that mig took that chance. Onegu could be mafia anyway and he didn't "need" mafia to do it and i'm not sure why you say mafia must be on it when the majority of the wagon was town. You yourself even started to believe the claim, are you saying you are mafia too? None of your reasons point to me being mafia. If i'm a tunneled towny and see the person i call mafia all game promote the shittiest reads and checks with bad reasons amd then i see something to convince me I'm right what would i do in that situation? The exact same thing. Holyflare wrote:
Your reasons are silly and tunneled. I am clearly a miller or framed, stop judging by scenarios and judge by my actual play! + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2015 06:42 Holyflare wrote:
it doesn't matter, i'll flip vt or miller and then you make sense of his claim later
really don't think mafia would frame me in this case On June 24 2015 23:04 Holyflare wrote:
like seriously this is mafia's thought process if you think i was framed and gb is town:
"yeh gb is fake cop or whatever cz that mig check totally bad, who should we frame guys since he's not the cop? OH that guy that looks pretty towny and shit and will probably never ever get checked?????????"
On June 25 2015 00:21 Holyflare wrote:
If you believe mig is mafia and GB didn't get rb'd or killed because they thought he was fake claiming, then they would never ever in their life frame me since GB is the only one that would ever check me. On June 25 2015 01:27 Holyflare wrote:
but this doesn't matter, they'll see my flip and go straight for you
btw to everyone else, if he ever ever ever claims that i must be framed, do NOT believe that bull shit Clearly you were not framed. So the *only* reason you were redchecked is that you're a miller. Holyflare wrote:
Gb said he checked lightningstrike but town read him on n1 I agree that this didn't make much sense. Holyflare wrote:
Onegu could be mafia anyway and he didn't "need" mafia to do it and i'm not sure why you say mafia must be on it when the majority of the wagon was town. The only reason there was so many town people on that wagon was because VA outed himself. If VA didn't confirm that he went to bugs, I doubt very few town people would've actually switched to GB. I know I would never even have considered it if it wasn't for VA. There is *no way* that mig could've expected that "support" from VA. Hence he needed support from other mafioso to even have a shot. Otherwise he would've just let you die. I already showed you why mig wasn't in danger. ----- Everything else aside, you want me to take the 1/13 chance that you are the miller? That is a 8% chance. I'm not taking those odds. If i get lynched the game is over. It is quite simple. This is not a game about "chance". You see my play which isn't mafia aligned in the slightest and judge me on that. The fact of the matter is that I am town, mig didn't "need mafia support" since almost the entire wagon is town anyway and it looks like tmi that you are ignoring onegu and still pushing this false scenario when my reasoning is solid for why I am not mafia. It's pretty hard to get me mislynched isn't it? I will fight you till the ends of the earth. I've only ever been mislynched once for a reason.
I'm not ignoring onegu in the slighest.
You'll say that you're town no matter what alignment you are so that point is moot.
The fact of the matter is that you have a redcheck on you.
Forget all the scenarios, speculations and roles. Occam's razor my friend.
Either way I've presented my stance. People will have to judge for themselves.
I'm going to focus my energy on finding the rest of the scum.
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On June 27 2015 09:08 VayneAuthority wrote:
the only way holyflare lives this deep into the game is if im on the scum team, so you have to decide if you think im town or he is.
What do you mean by this?
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Shockley, tell me who your mafia reads are and why.
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On June 27 2015 12:28 ShoCkeyy wrote:
##vote VayneAuthority
Just got caught up with thread, your filter is just riddled with scum and you just gave yourself away. Thanks for making it easier!
Eh, he's the jail keeper?
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Are you saying you don't believe his claim?
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On June 27 2015 20:18 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2015 09:37 ruXxar wrote:On June 27 2015 08:59 Holyflare wrote:On June 27 2015 06:31 ruXxar wrote:On June 27 2015 04:04 Holyflare wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2015 23:12 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2015 22:50 Holyflare wrote: I recognise that there is a very minimal chance that HF is miller/was framed, but given that it's a red check from the confirmed cop, I think the odds are much better there than they would be with anyone else. You realise that this automatically loses us the game? It's not a "minimal chance" it's the actual fact of the matter. You need to reevaluate. I realise that having rsoultin in your qt is a detriment since she was so tunneled on wifom scenarios that she couldn't see the actual version of events that unfolded and repeatedly shut down any discourse for the correct version of events but still. I totally understand how hard it is to believe someone that has a red check on them but at least try what i did yesterday and make scenarios for the 2 eventualities that will unfold. "if hf is town mafia is x, y, z" "if hf is mafia then mafia x, y, z" because that way you won't be totally tunneled on the wrong situation HF, I'd be happy if you'd read the post I made about you here, and responded to it. Take it all into consideration and try to imagine it from my point of view. The chance that you aren't mafia is so small that I can't see a reason to believe that you aren't. Of course you're going to say that you're town if you're mafia. Anything else would just lose you the game. Like tell me, if you were a betting man, would you put money on you being mafia or not? Your reasons are silly and tunneled. I am clearly a miller or framed, stop judging by scenarios and judge by my actual play! Where have i pushed mafia things? I've only pushed what i believe to be the case. Gb said he checked lightningstrike but town read him on n1. He then checks me when he said all of my mafia reads that i had been pushing were his mafia reads? Then mig reveals he's tracker. I believed the sensible option and was wrong. See how that works? The most obvious is not always the case. I was supremely tunneled on gb being mafia and my vote was already on gb before mig claimed tracker. Like you said. Mig claiming gets a free cop death or ends in his death anyway. Gb said he had to go to school and then mig claimed without the resistance. It's not hard to reason that mig took that chance. Onegu could be mafia anyway and he didn't "need" mafia to do it and i'm not sure why you say mafia must be on it when the majority of the wagon was town. You yourself even started to believe the claim, are you saying you are mafia too? None of your reasons point to me being mafia. If i'm a tunneled towny and see the person i call mafia all game promote the shittiest reads and checks with bad reasons amd then i see something to convince me I'm right what would i do in that situation? The exact same thing. Holyflare wrote:
Your reasons are silly and tunneled. I am clearly a miller or framed, stop judging by scenarios and judge by my actual play! + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2015 06:42 Holyflare wrote:
it doesn't matter, i'll flip vt or miller and then you make sense of his claim later
really don't think mafia would frame me in this case On June 24 2015 23:04 Holyflare wrote:
like seriously this is mafia's thought process if you think i was framed and gb is town:
"yeh gb is fake cop or whatever cz that mig check totally bad, who should we frame guys since he's not the cop? OH that guy that looks pretty towny and shit and will probably never ever get checked?????????"
On June 25 2015 00:21 Holyflare wrote:
If you believe mig is mafia and GB didn't get rb'd or killed because they thought he was fake claiming, then they would never ever in their life frame me since GB is the only one that would ever check me. On June 25 2015 01:27 Holyflare wrote:
but this doesn't matter, they'll see my flip and go straight for you
btw to everyone else, if he ever ever ever claims that i must be framed, do NOT believe that bull shit Clearly you were not framed. So the *only* reason you were redchecked is that you're a miller. Holyflare wrote:
Gb said he checked lightningstrike but town read him on n1 I agree that this didn't make much sense. Holyflare wrote:
Onegu could be mafia anyway and he didn't "need" mafia to do it and i'm not sure why you say mafia must be on it when the majority of the wagon was town. The only reason there was so many town people on that wagon was because VA outed himself. If VA didn't confirm that he went to bugs, I doubt very few town people would've actually switched to GB. I know I would never even have considered it if it wasn't for VA. There is *no way* that mig could've expected that "support" from VA. Hence he needed support from other mafioso to even have a shot. Otherwise he would've just let you die. I already showed you why mig wasn't in danger. ----- Everything else aside, you want me to take the 1/13 chance that you are the miller? That is a 8% chance. I'm not taking those odds. If i get lynched the game is over. It is quite simple. This is not a game about "chance". You see my play which isn't mafia aligned in the slightest and judge me on that. The fact of the matter is that I am town, mig didn't "need mafia support" since almost the entire wagon is town anyway and it looks like tmi that you are ignoring onegu and still pushing this false scenario when my reasoning is solid for why I am not mafia. It's pretty hard to get me mislynched isn't it? I will fight you till the ends of the earth. I've only ever been mislynched once for a reason. I'm not ignoring onegu in the slighest. You'll say that you're town no matter what alignment you are so that point is moot. The fact of the matter is that you have a redcheck on you. Forget all the scenarios, speculations and roles. Occam's razor my friend. Either way I've presented my stance. People will have to judge for themselves. I'm going to focus my energy on finding the rest of the scum. If you can read my filter and tell me you are sticking with occam's razor because of the red check then you are definitely claiming mafia.
I like you HF. More than the afk lurkers doing nothing. If it wasn't for the redcheck I'd almost definitely label you as town.
I wouldn't be able to forgive myself though if I ignored the redcheck and you actually are mafia.
However, we are still missing mafia. So if you, by some incredibly low chance, *are* town, then help us find the rest instead of defending your innocence. I'm sure people have enough material to make up their own mind about you at this point.
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Is it just me or does this game feel completely dead -_-.
Like, does no one care about winning here?
Silence is exactly what mafia wants.
If you are town and you're lurking, you're not helping.
We need to prove to each other that we're town by being active and consolidating our thoughts.
If you keep lurking you're an easy target to lynch.
Give me some mafia reads guys, let your thoughts out. If we don't do anything we're making it really easy for the mafia.
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So I'm looking into these people as potential scum:
NHM.
Damdred.
Shockey,
Onegu,
This is how it shaked out:
Nhm:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 19 2015 04:23 NydusHerMain wrote:
Mainly Damdred, shockey, bf, onegu, ritoky as my main scum (This is not his only statement about these people, he mentioned multiple times that he scumread the ones below since day 1) Probably not mafia with Onegu. Scumread Onegu day 1. Probably not mafia with Shockey. Scumread Shockey day 1. Probably not mafia with Damdred. Scumread Damdred day1.
Damdred:
+ Show Spoiler +Scumreads:
-Fidei.
-Mig.
-Onegu
-Shockey
Honestly damdred is hard for me to read.
He seems to be making a lot of right calls with regards to alignments, but I'm not sure how he does it(mafia?)
When he does make a big post explaining something he does make sense.
He tries to push the thread at times and pushes people, asks questions and airs his thoughts without fear.
Does take a solid stance on who he likes and doesn't like.
I like him a little bit better than onegu and shockey.
Shockey:
+ Show Spoiler +Strange vote switching day1.
Feels like he's all over the place.
I can't trace a solid train of thought in his play.
Scumreads:
-LS
-Ruxxar
-Lohen(yama)
Onegu:
+ Show Spoiler +Incredibly anti-town day 1.
Complete tunnel on LS since day 1, even after greencheck.
Scumreads:
-LS
-Ruxxar
-HF
After that, this is my ordered list of mafia suspects:
Onegu
Shockey
Damdred
Nydus
Right now I'm leaning towards onegu + shockey.
Thoughts? Comments?
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On June 27 2015 22:29 LightningStrike wrote:
I here Rux if you want to talk (I been mostly away because I thought we had a set lynch plan lol) if Shockeyy had at least read the thread he shouldn't even be voting VA like there is no way if he had read the thread and think VA is scum because VA claimed Jailkeeper and is not been counterclaimed so far. Also I just checked Shockeyy's games since he didn't play much he had posted more in this game than of all his previous games(That includes Withccraft III) so it might be alignment indicative. I will take a deeper look into the eys of both Town Shockeyy and and Scum Shockeyy to figure exactly what's the difference in his game play as both alignments.
Ok good, but don't rely only on meta-reads.
Try to look at his actions from this game as well and see if they make sense from a town perspective in general.
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Damdred I want to ask you:
What specifically about Shockey don't you like?
Could you give me a couple sentences to understand a bit how you're thinking?
I want your own take on it.
Besides shockey, who are you suspicious off?
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On June 27 2015 23:14 Damdred wrote:
Oh and you could of carried shot. Its all pretty preliminary.
I'll try to,be,more concrete after work.
Thanks dam.
Your phone isn't doing you any favors with the spelling btw 
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On June 27 2015 23:13 Damdred wrote:
Oneg is oneg
What does this mean?
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On June 28 2015 01:19 Onegu wrote:
So I am now thinking HF may actually be town and High chance that LS is scum here.
That post where he says HF has to be scum is just so random. The one where he says he was framed because he is miller which means HF has to be scum. Like how does town think of that. That is just one more post that is TMI. TBF HF wasnt killed in GoT mafia until the night before 2v1 lylo. Yes he should be dead but its not impossible for him to be alive as town here.
So I am going to go with Mig, LS, RuXxar, and X.
So the green check on Ls is not valid because?..
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On June 28 2015 01:19 Onegu wrote:
So I am now thinking HF may actually be town and High chance that LS is scum here.
That post where he says HF has to be scum is just so random. The one where he says he was framed because he is miller which means HF has to be scum. Like how does town think of that. That is just one more post that is TMI. TBF HF wasnt killed in GoT mafia until the night before 2v1 lylo. Yes he should be dead but its not impossible for him to be alive as town here.
So I am going to go with Mig, LS, RuXxar, and X.
Let me get this straight onegu.
Not only are you saying that the red check on HF was because he's a miller or framed, but you're *also* saying that the green check on LS was due to him being framed or being miller?
I don't even... What kind of fantasy world is that?
Do you know how absurd that is?
I don't understand how anyone could even *begin* to think that is a sensible conclusion if they are town.
For all the TMI accusations you're throwing about, you sure seem to know a lot.
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eBWOP: LS being framed or GF*
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EPT
