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Mafia in the Himalayas - Page 229

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 30 2015 15:59 GMT
#4561
i've been trying to figure shit out that's why, i'm totally unsure
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
June 30 2015 15:59 GMT
#4562
it's not WIFOM, it's a matter of simple statistics. You are far more likely to be mafia, on a percentage basis, than you are to be either the miller or framed. We obviously don't even know if there is a miller or a framer, let alone have anything to suggest it might be you who is unlucky enough to be caught by one of them.
ruXxar
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Norway5669 Posts
June 30 2015 16:01 GMT
#4563
On July 01 2015 00:54 Fidei86 wrote:
Or they're misguided town and mafia? And I use the term 'misguided' loosely, since obviously if you are mafia you have played very well indeed to get this many people to misread you :-)

I'm not moving my vote, and I urge everyone else to please do your duty and vote on the red check.


How confident are you in this fidei?
Because I'm also pretty confident in lynching onegu or shockey today.
"alright guys im claiming my role im actually politician I can manipulate a persons vote during the day phase, used it on clarity last phase and forced him to vote for HF. full role name donald trump, definitely town sided". - EBH
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 30 2015 16:01 GMT
#4564
if you ever use statistics in a game of mafia with me again i will hunt you down till the ends of the earth and berate you for eternity even after that

statistics have no place in a game of mafia, at all

if you play based on statistics you will lose 50% of your games

if you play based on statistics then you aren't playing the game of mafia

if you play based on statistics you will never be good
NydusHerMain
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada492 Posts
June 30 2015 16:01 GMT
#4565
Despite what I said, I think shockey is most likely to flip scum. People are avoiding voting him like the plague. Gimme 5 minutes to check something.
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
June 30 2015 16:02 GMT
#4566
Nhm why would you reluctantly follow onto everyone else in the game basically that isn't you and fid?
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
June 30 2015 16:03 GMT
#4567
On July 01 2015 01:01 Holyflare wrote:
if you ever use statistics in a game of mafia with me again i will hunt you down till the ends of the earth and berate you for eternity even after that

statistics have no place in a game of mafia, at all

if you play based on statistics you will lose 50% of your games

if you play based on statistics then you aren't playing the game of mafia

if you play based on statistics you will never be good


My statistics show we have a 3/8 chance to hit mafia by rnging
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 30 2015 16:05 GMT
#4568
ironically the one playing the most anti town and ignoring facts is the confirmed town ^^
ruXxar
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Norway5669 Posts
June 30 2015 16:05 GMT
#4569
On July 01 2015 00:59 Fidei86 wrote:
it's not WIFOM, it's a matter of simple statistics. You are far more likely to be mafia, on a percentage basis, than you are to be either the miller or framed. We obviously don't even know if there is a miller or a framer, let alone have anything to suggest it might be you who is unlucky enough to be caught by one of them.


This is exactly the argument that I brought up earlier, but people don't seem to think that statistics is worth anything.
"alright guys im claiming my role im actually politician I can manipulate a persons vote during the day phase, used it on clarity last phase and forced him to vote for HF. full role name donald trump, definitely town sided". - EBH
NydusHerMain
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada492 Posts
June 30 2015 16:06 GMT
#4570
On July 01 2015 01:02 Damdred wrote:
Nhm why would you reluctantly follow onto everyone else in the game basically that isn't you and fid?


Because if any two town don't vote on the same person we lose.
NydusHerMain
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada492 Posts
June 30 2015 16:06 GMT
#4571
On June 19 2015 07:08 Half the Sky wrote:
Final Day 1 Vote Count


boxerfred (8): Holyflare, GlowingBear, Breshke, rsoultin, LightningStrike, Fidei86, Damdred, NydusHerMain, Onegu, Mig, ShoCkeyy, GlowingBear
GlowingBear (7): wherebugsgo, KelsierSC, VayneAuthority, LightningStrike, Holyflare, KelsierSC, boxerfred, ShoCkeyy, Breshke, KelsierSC
ShoCkeyy (1): NydusHerMain, NydusHerMain, LightningStrike, KelsierSC, KelsierSC, GlowingBear, ritoky
LightningStrike (0): KelsierSC, Onegu, GlowingBear, KelsierSC, ShoCkeyy, KelsierSC
Holyflare (0): boxerfred
Onegu (0): NydusHerMain, NydusHerMain
Lohengramm (0): VayneAuthority
KelsierSC (0): wherebugsgo
rsoultin (0): wherebugsgo, VayneAuthority, GlowingBear, Holyflare
wherebugsgo (0): KelsierSC
Mig (0): wherebugsgo

Not voted (1): Lohengramm

Slipping from the ledge, boxerfred has fallen into the abyss.
Day 1 has ended.


Of the people alive today only me and LS wanted to kill shockey. I dunno, mafia trying to protect their partner day 1?
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
June 30 2015 16:08 GMT
#4572
This is a really frustrating day, listen guys you are making this day about hf a million percent and forcing him to only defend himself. You aren't making him give reads or try to solve the game.

If he's scum and he gets lynched we have no real new information besides little blurbs so stop just attacking him make him talk about only other people and you do the same.

For example shockey asked me if I felt like oneg had done more, the answer is no I made an arbitrary list of people not doing jack shit inlylo and obviously don't care. They don't care
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 30 2015 16:08 GMT
#4573
hey fidei, let's try an exercise, what leads you to believe i am mafia other than the red check

also, if there's anything that i've done this game that you are unsure about my motives please ask and i'll elaborate fully and cite my sources and fully back up why i did it
NydusHerMain
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada492 Posts
June 30 2015 16:09 GMT
#4574
On July 01 2015 01:08 Damdred wrote:
This is a really frustrating day, listen guys you are making this day about hf a million percent and forcing him to only defend himself. You aren't making him give reads or try to solve the game.

If he's scum and he gets lynched we have no real new information besides little blurbs so stop just attacking him make him talk about only other people and you do the same.

For example shockey asked me if I felt like oneg had done more, the answer is no I made an arbitrary list of people not doing jack shit inlylo and obviously don't care. They don't care


If you want information.... Ask people for it. Use some positive town pressure?
ruXxar
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Norway5669 Posts
June 30 2015 16:13 GMT
#4575
Holyflare, if you had to choose between lynching shockey and onegu, who would you lynch and why?
"alright guys im claiming my role im actually politician I can manipulate a persons vote during the day phase, used it on clarity last phase and forced him to vote for HF. full role name donald trump, definitely town sided". - EBH
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 30 2015 16:13 GMT
#4576
both of them
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 30 2015 16:15 GMT
#4577
ruxxar explain to me how when i post the logic behind mig's reactions you say "oh that's right" but then you still want to lynch me?????

that looks like the most mafia stance i've seen
ruXxar
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Norway5669 Posts
June 30 2015 16:21 GMT
#4578
I'm saying that it makes sense from a logical standpoint that the scenarios play out that way.

It doesn't erase the fact that you have a red-check on you.
I'm probably never going to get past that.

However, as has been said, it's better to lynch the scummier targets first.
And after delving more into onegu and shockey they have soared up as scummier targets in my mind.
"alright guys im claiming my role im actually politician I can manipulate a persons vote during the day phase, used it on clarity last phase and forced him to vote for HF. full role name donald trump, definitely town sided". - EBH
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
June 30 2015 16:27 GMT
#4579
I just won't ever understand why people just want to 100% sheep confirmed town that's being lazy over other reads that aren't confirmed but doing things. Its frustrating and bad pkay oh well.e

Anyway id probably rather lynch shockey today, weird d1 votes. D2 ran in without contributing to vote Yamato. Isn't trying to solve game today just get upset when he's called out
NydusHerMain
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada492 Posts
June 30 2015 16:28 GMT
#4580
On July 01 2015 01:27 Damdred wrote:
I just won't ever understand why people just want to 100% sheep confirmed town that's being lazy over other reads that aren't confirmed but doing things. Its frustrating and bad pkay oh well.e

Anyway id probably rather lynch shockey today, weird d1 votes. D2 ran in without contributing to vote Yamato. Isn't trying to solve game today just get upset when he's called out


Math tells you that if we confirmed town votes someone different than even just 1 other town, mafia can swap votes at eod and win. That's why you have to either convince confirmed town or sheep them.
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